Lecture overview and reading instructions

Lecture 1

Probability theory 1

Karin Edmark

Lecture 2

Probability theory 2

Karin Edmark

Lecture 3

Probability theory 3

Karin Edmark

Lecture 4

Estimation and
Inference 1
Estimation and
Inference 2
Estimation and
Inference 3
Estimation and
Inference 4
Estimation and
Inference 5
Estimation and
inference 6
History of applied
social science and
recap

Karin Edmark

Lecture 5
Lecture 6
Lecture 7
Lecture 8
Lecture 9
Lecture 10

Karin Edmark
Niklas Bengtsson
Niklas Bengtsson
Niklas Bengtsson
Niklas Bengtsson
Niklas Bengtsson

WMS Ch. 1, 2.1-2.5,

2.7-2.12, 3.1-3.4, 3.83.9, 3.11
WMS Ch. 4.1-4.5, 4.84.10
WMS Ch. 5.1-5.9,
5.11
WMS Ch. 7.1-7.3, 7.5,
8.1-8.6. (*SW Ch. 2)
WMS Ch. 9.1-9.4,
10.1-10.7 (*SW Ch. 3)
SW Ch. 4-5 (incl
appendix)
SW Ch. 6-7 (incl.
Appendix)
SW Ch. 8 (incl.
Appendix)
SW Ch. 11 (incl.
appendix)
Past exams, Popper
(1963)

* Note that SW Ch 2 and SW Ch 3 are not mandatory, but are recommended reading.
No lectures are mandatory all are highly recommended!

Literature
WMS: Wackerly, Mendenhall and Scheaffer, Mathematical Statistics with Applications, 7th edition
(2008), Duxbury Advanced Series.
SW: Stock and Watson, Introduction to Econometrics 3rd rev edition (2014), or 3rd edition (2012).

Popper, Karl (1963). Science as Falsification, in Conjectures and Refutations (Routledge)

url: http://www.stephenjaygould.org/ctrl/popper_falsification.html
Note: All slides by Karin Edmark and Niklas Bengtsson are course literature!

Overview of lecture content

1. Probability theory 1
Conditional probability, Multiplicative law of probability, Bayes Rule, Expected value, Discrete
random variables, Binomial probability distribution, Poisson probability distribution, Moments
(definition).
2. Probability theory 2
Continuous distributions: Properties of distribution functions, properties of density functions,
expected values of continuous variables, Uniform distribution, Normal distribution, Chebychev's
theorem.
3. Probability theory 3
Multivariate distributions, marginal probability distribution, joint probability distributions,
covariance, expected value and variance of linear functions, multinomial probability distribution.
4. Estimation and Inference 1
Sampling distributions (z, t, F, chi2), the central limit theorem, unbiased point estimators, the i.i.d.
assumption, confidence intervals.
5. Estimation and Inference 2
Properties of point estimators (consistency, efficiency, sufficiency), hypothesis testing.
6. Estimation and Inference 3
Mechanics of OLS 1: properties, algebraic derivation, method of moments derivation, representation
using covariances, BLUE, "marginal effects" (and economic interpretation)
7. Estimation and Inference 4
Mechanics of OLS 2: multivariate OLS, functional form, dummy variables, heteroscedasticity, R2, OLS
hypothesis tests.
8. Estimation and Inference 5
Non-linear regressions 1: test of different slopes, estimation of structural parameters
9. Estimation and Inference 6
Non-linear regressions 2: probit, logit, maximum likelihood estimation
10. Recap and history of applied social science
History of social scientific thought (popper/kuhn), replication as scientific method, exam questions.