Harvard International Review

From Prediction to Action: Meteorology and the War on Climate Change

Author(s): ALEXANDER I. BEDRITSKY
Source: Harvard International Review, Vol. 30, No. 2 (SUMMER 2008), pp. 52-56
Published by: Harvard International Review
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FEATURES

From
Meteorology

Prediction
and

to
the

War

on

Climate
ALEXANDER

year 2007 was a special one formany

international
environmental
organizations,
as well as for the wider climate change
in
scientific
This wasso thanks,
community.
The
to
the
successful
of
the
particular,
approval
WorldMeteorological
(WMO) co-sponsored
Organization
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Intergovernmental
Fourth AssessmentReport,which clearlycategorized
climatechangeas "unequivocal."Thanksalso to the2007
Nobel Peace Prize awardedto theIPCC and Al Gore in
clearrecognition
ofthefactthatclimatechangeis an issue
withpotentialimplications
forworldpeace. If unabated,
climatechangewillmarkedly
increasetheriskofconflicts
overprimeresourcessuchas water,food,and energy.
This
in turnmay lead to massivepopulationresettlements,
to areasthatdo nothavethecapacity
includingmigration
In addition,2007
to shelter,
feed,or employnewrefugees.
concluded under the auspicious aegis of the roadmap
reachedin Bali,Indonesiaduringthethirteenth
agreement
sessionoftheConferenceofPartiesto theUnitedNations
Framework
Conventionon ClimateChange(UNFCCC).
This also servedas thethirdmeetingofthePartiesto the
[Hl HARVARD INTERNATIONAL

-y

Action
Change
I. BEDRITSKY

ALEXANDER BEDRITSKY is the President of

the World Meteorological Organization. He
formerly served as the Head of the Russian
Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and
Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet).
KyotoProtocol.
These arejusta fewofthereasonsfortheincreasingly
enrolethattheWMO andotherinternational
prominent
in
now
the
climate
vironmental
are
playing
organizations
scienthe exclusively
changearena,clearlytranscending
tificissuesthatonce weretheiruniquerealm.The media
has respondedto thisnovelprominence,as expected,by
focusingeven moreon climatechangeissues.Decisionmakershavedoneso as well,in partas an organicresponse
ofthenewscientific
to themagnitudeand transcendence
evidence,but also in order to betterrepresentcentral
concernsoftheirrespectiveconstituencies.
In a speech givenduringthe G8 Summitin Heiliof theUnited
gendammlastyear,the Secretary-General

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FEATURES
Nations, Ban Ki-moon,said thatclimatechangewas "a
issueofourera."It is nowgenerallyacceptedthat
defining
humanactivities
arealteringtheclimateat an increasingly
actions
alarmingrateandthatalthoughpositivemitigation
likegreenhousegas emissionsreductionswouldcertainly
help to alleviatethisproblem,adaptationmeasuresmust
also be consideredamongtheoptionscurrently
available
to society.Observations,
especiallythosemadefromspace,
showa markedglobaldeclineofsnowand ice cover.This
coveris retreating
earlierin the spring,and
increasingly
mostmountainglaciersareshrinking.
Sea ice in theArctic
is also shrinkingin all seasons and mostdramatically
in
thesummer.In 2007,forthefirst
timein recordedhistory,
the legendaryNorthwestPassage was open to unaided
navigationfor a few days. Reductions in permafrost,
seasonallyfrozengrounds,and riverand lake ice are also
now reported.Increasinglyimportantcoastalregionsof
theice sheetson Greenlandand WestAntarctica,
as well
as theglaciersoftheAntarctic
Peninsula,arecontinuously
to sea levelrise.
thinningand contributing
Why did these issues reach a crescendo in 2007?
Simplybecauseitwas due time.The culminationofthese
eventscorrespondsto the maturity
of theWMO and its
experienceon a path whichit set out quite a fewyears
ago. Establishedin 1873,theInternational
Meteorological
Organization(IMO) thatwasresponsibleforinternational
cooperationin meteorologyfromitscreationbecamethe
WMO in 1950. One year laterit became a specialized
agencyof the United Nations Systemformeteorology
and related
(weatherand climate),operationalhydrology
geophysicalsciences.Since its inception,theWMO has
establisheditselfas a leadingauthority
on an issuethatis
likelyto thrustthe WMO and othersuch international
environmental organizations
intoa positionofunprecedented
politicalrelevence.It willrequire
collaborationon a globalscale if
these organizationsare to conquerone ofthecentury's
greatest
challenges:climatechange.

hasbeencastasidebysomeas a short-sighted
meteorology
methodofweatherevaluation,
itis an analytical
toolthatis
indispensablewhenstudyinglong-termclimatetrends.
However,the presentlywidespreadrecognitionof
meteorology'srelevancewas not at all immediate.The
WMO's programs,particularly
its World Climate Programme(WCP), have formanyyearshelped societies
and governments
understand
thecomplexglobalproblem
of climatechange. In 1976, the WMO issued the first
statementon theaccumulationofcarbon
comprehensive
dioxidein theatmosphereand thepotentialimpactsthat
this processmighthave upon the Earth'sclimate.As a
result,theWMO and the UnitedNations Environment
Programme(UNEP) jointlyestablishedthe IPCC in
in providingthe
1988,whichhas sincebeen instrumental
most authoritative
and unbiasedassessmentsof climate
science,thepotentialimpactsof climatechange,and the
availablepolicyoptions.Throughits own programsand
thosesharedwithpartnerorganizations,the WMO has
been theprincipalproviderofthescientific
and technical
information
the
IPCC
scientific
assessments
underpinning
thatare currently
availableto the scientificcommunity.
Human-induced global climate change is an unprecedentedphenomenonthatrequiresan unparalleledlevel
of international
cooperation.It is thusappropriatethat
a
collaborative
only
programwithUN staturewould be
capable of tacklingclimatechange.
theirrolesas partnerships
formedthroughFulfilling
outthescientific
environmental
community,
organizations
aroundthe worldbegan to addressclimateissuesin the
global forum.In 1979, the WMO organizedthe First
WorldClimateConference,
whichwasfollowedin 1990by
theSecond WorldClimateConference.The twoconfer-

Interagency Solutions
Today,theWMO is theUN
voice on the state
authoritative
andbehavioroftheEarth'satmosphere,its interactionwith the
oceans, the climateit produces,
and theresultingdistribution
of
waterresources.Withinthefamily of specializedUN agencies,
the WMO has alwaysplayed a
leadingrole in studyingclimate
and climatechange.Information
on weather,climate,and water
is crucial when studying the
Opposite:Smog settlesaroundthetowersofa powerplantinCape Town,SouthAfimpactof climatechangeon the
rica,whereindustrial
pollutionisa growing
problem.Above:UN Secretary-General
and
Ban
Ki-moon
at
a
of
the
IPCC
inValencia,Spain.
speaks
meeting
economy
society.Although
Photos
Reuters
Courtesy

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[53]

FEATURES
assesstherisksofnaturaldisastersand organize
ernments
appropriateresponses.
sciInteragencycooperationis crucialforeffective
The bodies
and globallegitimacy.
entificcommunication
of the UNFCCC are an exampleof how strategicallies
on a globalscale. For
developand maintainrelationships
instance,the roles of the WMO and the NMHSs were
oftheUNFCCC
aftertheimplementation
strengthened
Nairobi Programmeof Work on Impacts,Vulnerability
andAdaptationto ClimateChange.This workhasenabled
the partiesto the conventionto gain more insightinto
therolesoftheWMO and theNMHSs in theprocessof
adaptingto climatechange,as well as intotheimportant
role thattheWMO playsin managingand coordinating
the workof the global observationnetwork.By taking
partin eventsas partoftheUNFCCC, theWMO highand scientific
lightstheimportanceofclimatemonitoring
and
researchin forecasting,
determiningthe
detecting,
of
causesofclimatechange,andassessingtheeffectiveness
It also shedslighton gapsin
measuresto reduceitseffects.
researchthatmustbe bridgedin order
data and scientific

milestones.The firstled to the

eneeswereveryimportant
oftheWorldClimateResearchProgramme
establishment
(WCRP) - jointlywith the InternationalCouncil for
Science (ICSU) and laterwithUNESCO's IntergovernmentalOceanographicCommission(IOC). The second
ofa climateconvention.This
calledfortheestablishment
also resultedin the developmentof the United Nations
Conventionon ClimateChange(UNFCCC).
Framework
The Second World ClimateConferencethenled to the
of the Global Climate ObservingSystem
establishment
(GCOS) by the WMO, UNEP, IOC-UNESCO, and
observaof systematic
ICSU, to facilitatetheavailability
tionsneeded forclimatechangestudies.As one can see,
in this
theacronymsofthekeyorganizations
participating
and are indicativeoftheglobal
fieldare indeedrecurrent
scale to whichthisissuehas ascended.
Internationalenvironmental
organizationsare built
aroundthebeliefthateverysocial,economic,andenvironandchange.
mentalsectoris sensitiveto climatevariability
formulation
and operaThey encourageimprovedpolicy
in thesesectorsthrougha more
tionaldecision-making
"The
and

impact
natural

of climate
systems

development

will

variability
pose

vital

as well

The
intensiveuse ofclimateknowledgeand information.
inclimateactivities
WMO therefore
supportspartnerships
and promotesfurtherdevelopmentof decision-support
riskmanagetoolsandcapacitybuildingin climate-related
oftheneed forcollaborationbeyond
ment.In recognition
climateprediction,the FifteenthWorld Meteorological
Congress,held in Geneva duringMay 2007, has agreed
to convenea World ClimateConference-3in 2009 with
undertheoverallthemeofclimate
partnerorganizations,
predictionfordecisionmaking.This conventionwillaim
to develop practicaloutcomeswith directrelevanceto
the privatesector,and the public.Hopepolicy-makers,
thisconferencewilllead to thepracticalapplication
fully,
of climateanalysisfindings.
The acquisitionof global allies and the increased
ease with which domestic effortscan acquire climate
and practices.
data facilitatethe sharingof information
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
(NMHSs) make meteorological,climatic,hydrological,
stanwhilealso processing,
and geophysicalobservations,
climate
The
weather
and
data.
and
exchanging
dardizing,
observationnetworkscoordinatedby the WMO and its
areessentialsourcesofinformation
partnerorganizations
and
whenassessingglobaland regionalclimatevariability
and
measures.
The
WMO
response
appropriate
adopting
itsglobalpartnershavedevelopeda globalinfrastructure
fordataprocessingthathelpssociety,
businesses,and govfS4| HARVARD INTERNATIONAL

and

change

challenges

as to world

upon

human

to sustainable
peace."

to improvemonitoringof the impactof climatechange

andfacilitate
adaptationto futurechange.The planforthe
Global ObservingSystemforClimatein supportof the
withdirectparticipation
UNFCCC is beingimplemented
ofNMHSs and theWMO.
of the international
Despite the coordinatedefforts
to tackleclimatechange,scientists
predictthat
community
the climatewill continueto evolveformanydecades to
come. In additionto theneed formitigationmeasuresto
reducetheconsequencesofclimatechange,policy-makers
taskof drawingup and
difficult
also facetheparticularly
measuresforadaptingto naturaldisasters
implementing
theirconsequences.
and mitigating
Adapting to Climate Change
Measures for adaptingto climate change must be
levels: first,longimplementedon two complementary
termmeasuresbased on the expectedrise in sea levels,
temperaturepatternsand precipitation,and second,
measuresfor adaptingto the phenomenonof climate
whichis alreadyapparent.
variability,
Approachesto developingadaptationresponsestrategiesmayvarydependingon thetimeperiodscovered,the
regionsconsidered,and sectorsof the economythatare
involved.Butall measuresto adaptto climatechangehave
one sharedaspectin common:theycannotbe successfully
oftheimpact
withouta clearunderstanding
implemented

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FEATURES
ofclimatechange.This understanding
mustbe bolstered
a
assessment
of
the
ofcountries
by rigorous
vulnerability
and regions,whichin turnwouldbe based on global and
regionalsystemsforcollectingand analyzingdata on the
stateof climatechange.These are tasksthatthe WMO
and itspartnerorganizationsare well suitedto confront,
due to theircombinationof deep scientific
expertiseand
attentionto real-worldimpacts.The costsofcopingwith
in developingcountries,
a changingclimate,particularly
willbe muchmoremanageableifappropriateactionsare
undertakenas soon as possibleand monitoredcontinuon the basis of trustworthy
observations
ouslythereafter
and authoritative
scientific
research.
Since the release of the previous(Third) IPCC reportin 2001, confidencehas increasedthatsomeweather
eventsand extremeswill become even more frequent,
more widespreadand possiblymore intenseduringthe
21st century.The conclusionsof the recentlypublished
Fourth IPCC AssessmentReport (2007) indicate that
climatechange will verylikelylead to more severeand
frequenthazardousphenomenasuchas heatwaves,heavy
and droughtsin manypartsof the world.
precipitation,
The Hyogo Framework
ofActionfor2005-2015,adopted
at the World Conferenceon Disaster Reduction(2005,
Kobe, Japan) statesthateventsof hydrometeorological
originconstitutethelargemajorityofdisasters.Unfortuprovidelittlecomfort:economicloss
nately,thestatistics
from
natural
disastershas clearlyrisenoverthe
resulting
90 percentofthesedisasters
few
and
almost
decades,
past
in the past 10 yearshave been caused by hydrometeorologicalphenomena.
However,while naturalhazardscannotbe avoided,
appropriatecapacitybuildingcan indeed help societies
reducedeathand destruction
whenadapting
significantly
to climatevariability
and change.In particular,
theWMO
has emphasizedtheneed to further
the
explore potential
betweenclimatechangeandnaturaldisasters.
relationship
While scientistscontinueto studythe specificnatureof
thelinksbetweenclimatechangeand theincreasein meteorologicalnaturaldisasters,it is clearthatsuchlinksdo
exist.This forcesus to look at the problemof shortand
medium-term
weatherforecasting
froma different
angle,
in
to
extreme
weather
conditions.
The
particularly regards
of
models
to
make
improvement forecasting
designed
weatherforecastsmore reliable and to detect extreme
conditionsat the local levelis an integralpartof the actionstrategy
ofcountriesas theyadaptto climatechange.
Cost estimatesshowthatfundsinvestedin strengthening
theweatherand climateobservationsystemand improving climatemodels will yielda high returnby reducing
economicloss and savinghumanlives.
The firststep to effectively
reformingthe climate
and
change regime
making meaningfulprogresswill
involvecollectingthenecessarydata foraccuratepredictions.The WMO is implementing
the World Weather
ResearchProgram(WWRP) and a 10-yearcomponent
programcalled THORPEX in order to acceleratethe

increaseof forecasting
accuracyfrom1 day to 2 weeks.
A series of regionaland global projectsare underway,
includingprojectsthataim to increasethe effectiveness
of weatherforecasting,satelliteobservations,data assimilation,and numericalweatherforecastingsystems.
Both developed and developingcountriescan reap the
benefits
ofthisextensiveresearchin orderto developnew
methodsofreducingthehazardsofnaturaldisastersandin
orderto increasethecostefficiency
ofexistingforecasting
technologies.
The Global Community
The inherentlyglobal natureof climatechange is
impacton undeveloped
likelyto have a disproportionate
countries.These are thesamecountriesthatare themost
vulnerable,as theyhaveverylimitedcapabilitiesto adapt
to a changingenvironment.
it is oftenthe
Additionally,
of
that
tendto settle
sectors
society
highlyimpoverished
in themostexposedareas;theyhavelittlecapacityto move
elsewhere.Accordingly,
the Least Developed Countries
(LDCs), SmallIslandDevelopingStates(SIDS), andother
vulnerablenationswill be among those hit earliestand
hardest.Ironically,thesecountriesare also amongthose
in climatechange.
leastresponsibleforthedevelopments
Nevertheless,theyhave veryfew resourcesto prepare
accordinglyand will facethe harshestconsequences.All
countries,
especiallythemostvulnerableones,areentitled
A Century

of Climate

Policy

Timeline oftheWorld Meteorological

Organization (WMO)
1873

WMO'spredecessor,
theInternational
Meisestablished.
teorological
Organization,

1951

WMO becomesspecialized
agencyofthe
Nations.
United

1957

setup.
GlobalOzoneObserving
System

1963

World
Weather
Watchlaunched.

1979

FirstWorldClimateConference,
leading
to theestablishment
oftheWMOWorld
Climate
Programme.
thatdeMontreal
Protocolon substances
pletetheozonelayer.
International
DecadeforNaturalDisaster
Reduction
Firstassessment
report
begins.
oftheIntergovernmental
Panelon Climate
Change.
establishes
KyotoConference
targetand
timetablefor reducinggreenhouse-gas
emissions.

1987
1990

1997
2007

WMO-UNFPIntergovernmental
Panelon
Climate
theNobelPeace
Changeawarded
AlGore.
Prizejointly
with

World
Meteorological
Organization.

2008 HARVARD INTERNATIONAL

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[si]

FEATURES
to and shoulduse earlywarningsystemsas partof their
naturaldisasterriskreductionactivities.
Providingsupport
to internalcapacitybuildingin themostexposeddeveloping countriesshouldbe considereda moralobligationof
theinternational
community.
Consideringtheissueofsustainabledevelopmentby
institutions
to developpolicyisvital
workingwithfinancial
oflocallybeneficial
climatechange
fortheimplementation
initiatives.For example,in cooperationwiththe United
NationsEconomicCommissionforAfrica(UNECA), the
AfricanUnion, and the AfricanDevelopmentBank,the
a comprehensive
WMO is implementing
10-yearprogram
entitledClimateforDevelopmentinAfrica.This program
countriesin achieving
aimsto provideassistancetoAfrican
theirdevelopmentgoals. It will entailimprovedclimate
climateservices,and assessmentof therisks
monitoring,
of extremeclimateconditionsand climatepolicyforthe
continentas a whole.This programaimsto serveitsusers
by takinginto accountnot only the need forimproved
but also the need fora climateserclimatemonitoring,
and
climate
risk
vice,
management,and the formulation
in
field.
of
that
specific
implementation policy
At the policy level, internationalenvironmental
organizationsmust consider the climate change issue
broadlyin the contextof sustainabledevelopment.This
framework
includeseconomicand socialdimensionssuch
In
and healthconsiderations.
as linksto energy,poverty,
in
its
belief
the
WMO
has
demonstrated
the
particular,

Farmerswalkoverparchedland in Kenya'sNyakachdistrict.Land degradationinthe area has onlybeen exacerbated bylivestockgrazingand populationgrowth.

[56] HARVARD INTERNATIONAL

need to rapidlyadvancethemitigation
ofgreenhousegas
emissionsand implementadaptationmeasurestailoredto
local effects
ofclimatechange.It has also recognizedthe
necessaryemphasison the special needs of the poorest
developingcountries.From the perspectiveof implementation,theWMO promotesscience-baseddecisionmakingat nationaland globallevels,whilesupportingthe
of its members'and otherorganizations'
strengthening
commitmentsto systematicobservationsand climate
changeresearchand studies.
Toward Future Collaboration
It is broadlyrecognizedthat the UNFCCC is the
basisforfutureclimatechangedebatesand actions.Since
theconventionenteredintoforcein 1994,theWMO has
also repeatedlyattemptedto underscoretheimportance
ofadequatelinkagebetweentheUNFCCC and otherkey
internationalagreementsand conventions,such as the
UnitedNations Conventionto Combat Desertification,
and the
theUnitedNations Conventionon Biodiversity,
ViennaConventionon theProtectionoftheOzone Layer
The WMO
and itsMontrealProtocoland Amendments.
has done so, recognizingthatfutureclimatechangepoliin thecombinedcontexts
cies willrequireconsiderations
ofefficient
socio-economic
needs,and sustainable
energy,
development.
one shouldacknowledgefromthestart
Nevertheless,
thatthe impactof climatevariabilityand change upon
humanand naturalsystemswill pose vitalchallengesto
sustainabledevelopmentas well as to world peace, as
the Norwegian Nobel Committeehas wiselyforeseen.
Together,adaptationand mitigationwillbecome two essentialand complementary
pillarsto meetand overcome
thesechallenges.Not surprisingly,
though,otheractions
will unquestionablybe needed as well. These actions
should include financialand technologicalefforts,and
of the National
shouldencompassthe keycontributions
Services
oftheWMO's
and
Meteorological Hydrological
188 members.
The observations,
products,and servicesofthiswide
will
be crucial.Each one willplaya
of
collaborators
array
of
in
formulation
and implementation
the
successful
part
relevantstrategies,responsepolicies and measures,and
evaluationof the progress(hopefully)being achieved.
itsobservations,
The WMO hopes to further
strengthen
as
a
and
research
efforts
way to improveits
monitoring,
climate
of
the
scientific
system.
understanding
global
fortheconsecommunity
Preparingtheinternational
a dauntclimatechangeis certainly
quencesofirreversible
will
and its
that
test
the
United
Nations
task.
It
is
one
ing
to be
to
their
utmost.
There
is
reason
specializedagencies
has
often
as
mechanism
this
optimistic,
globalcoordinating
inresolving
problems.
provedeffective
globalhumanitarian
With so muchat stake,theWMO and itsstrategicpartmissionof
nersmustworktogetherto facetheformidable
scientific
and
predictions publicpolicyinto a
combining
of
comprehensive
plan actionon theglobalscale.DI

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Reuters
Photo
Courtesy