Professional Documents
Culture Documents
War on Terror DA
1nc
Low risk of terrorist attack on US-studies prove
Shinkman 12 (Paul D., Washington newsman, naturalized Capitol Hill citizen, now national security reporter at
US News & World Report. Formerly with WTOP News, Study: U.S. at 'Low' Risk of Terror Attack, U.S.News &
World Report LP, December 5, 2012, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/12/05/study-america-hasrelatively-low-chance-of-terrorist-attack-) SS
In an era of terrorist plots and WMD proliferation, this news may come as a slight relief: Among countries with the
highest risk of terrorist attacks, the United States ranks "relatively low," according to a new study. The
University of Maryland collected data on 104,000 instances of terrorism in 158 nations, and ranked the
likelihood of each country witnessing a terrorist attack within its borders. Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan
earn the top positions. The U.S. slides in at No. 41. "In global terms, this is a relatively low level of activity,"
according to the study, first reported by The Washington Times . "North America is the least-likely region to be
involved in a terrorist attack, though this is not the general impression among many of its residents," says
Steve Killelea with the Institute for Economics and Peace, which published the study using statistics and
analysis from the University of Maryland's National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to
Terrorism . "The fatality rate in the U.S. is 19 times lower than Western Europe," he tells the Times. "Still, the
level of terrorism elsewhere is too high. We're hoping the index can prompt a practical debate about the future of
terrorism and some appropriate policy responses." Major U.S. allies land much higher on the list. Britain is
ranked 28th, behind Turkey and Israel, which are 19th and 20th, respectively. The Philippines just squeaks
into the top 10, right behind Russia at No. 9.
GITMO is a vital internal link to strategic intelligence, which is key to the war on terror.
Meese 2012 (Edwin, the Ronald Reagan Distinguished Fellow in Public Policy and chairman of the Center for
Legal & Judicial Studies at the Heritage Foundation. He served as the 75th attorney general of the United States
under President Reagan, Guantanamo Bay prison is necessary, CNN,
http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/11/opinion/meese-gitmo)
The detention and interrogation facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, which I have visited, has served and continues to serve an
important role in the war against terrorists since it opened 10 years ago. It houses high-value terrorist detainees, like Khalid Sheikh
Mohammed, the architect of September 11. The military commissions' courthouse, called the Expeditionary Legal
Compound, is a world-class, state-of-the-art facility specifically designed to accommodate the needs of both
defense and prosecutors dealing with classified information. The detainees there are represented by civilian and military
counsel, and the Supreme Court has ruled that they enjoy the constitutional right of habeas corpus. The conditions of detention there
are safe, secure and humane and comply with national and international standards , including Common Article 3 of
the Geneva Conventions. It is important to remember that the United States of America is engaged in armed conflict and has been since
September 11, 2001. The September 18, 2001, Authorization for Use of Military Force, relied upon by both the Bush and Obama administrations,
gives our military the legal authority to engage the enemy under appropriate circumstances. Under the law of armed conflict, also called the law
of war, engaging the enemy includes killing or capturing the enemy. This age-old principle -- detention of the enemy during wartime for the
duration of hostilities -- is just as applicable to al Qaeda as it was to Nazi POWs in World War II or other enemies in previous wars. This principle
has been upheld by our courts, including the United States Supreme Court. Shortly after September 11, it became evident that this war
would be different from all previous wars in the sense that we would need to rely more on tactical and
strategic intelligence to thwart and defeat the enemy than traditional military might. To defeat al Qaeda and
its affiliates, we needed to know what they knew; one of the obvious ways to learn their intentions was
through lawful interrogation at a safe detention facility. Guantanamo, used as a detention facility since the Clinton
administration, was just such a place. Former detainee recalls time at Gitmo Guantanamo Bay's past and future There have been 779
detainees at Guantanamo. Today, there are only 171. But over the past decade, we have not only kept dangerous terrorists
at Guantanamo and thus away from the battlefield, we have learned a great deal from them during longterm, lawful interrogations. Without a safe, secure detention and interrogation facility , we would not have
gained the tactical and strategic intelligence needed to degrade and ultimately defeat the enemy. A look at
Guantanamo Bay prison It has been said that the mere existence of Guantanamo is a recruiting tool for the enemy.
However, recall that there was no Guantanamo detention facility when al Qaeda bombed the World Trade
Center in the 1990s or blew up the U.S. embassies in East Africa in 1998 or attacked the USS Cole in 2000 . And
I suspect that if the Bush administration had brought the Guantanamo detainees not to Cuba but to a detention facility in the United States, that
facility would have been the object of their scorn and derision. All things considered, the detention facility at Guantanamo
Bay has played an invaluable role in the war against terrorists by keeping them off the battlefield and
allowing for lawful interrogations.
Nuclear terrorism escalates to major nuclear war. Global coop on material transfers is key.
Ayson 10 (Robert Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand
at the Victoria University of Wellington After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects, Studies
in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, obtained via InformaWorld)
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons in response by the country attacked in the first place, would not necessarily
represent the worst of the nuclear worlds imaginable. Indeed, there are reasons to wonder whether nuclear terrorism should ever be regarded as
belonging in the category of truly existential threats. A contrast can be drawn here with the global catastrophe that would come from a massive
nuclear exchange between two or more of the sovereign states that possess these weapons in significant numbers. Even the worst terrorism that
the twenty-first century might bring would fade into insignificance alongside considerations of what a general nuclear war would have wrought in
the Cold War period. And it must be admitted that as long as the major nuclear weapons states have hundreds and even thousands of nuclear
weapons at their disposal, there is always the possibility of a truly awful nuclear exchange taking place precipitated entirely by state possessors
themselves. But these two nuclear worldsa non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate nuclear
exchangeare not necessarily separable. It is just possible that some sort of terrorist attack, and especially an act of nuclear
terrorism, could precipitate a chain of events leading to a massive exchange of nuclear weapons between two
or more of the states that possess them. In this context, todays and tomorrows terrorist groups might assume the place allotted during the
early Cold War years to new state possessors of small nuclear arsenals who were seen as raising the risks of a catalytic nuclear war between the
superpowers started by third parties. These risks were considered in the late 1950s and early 1960s as concerns grew about nuclear proliferation,
the so-called n+1 problem. It may require a considerable amount of imagination to depict an especially plausible situation where an act of nuclear
terrorism could lead to such a massive inter-state nuclear war. For example, in the event of a terrorist nuclear attack on the United States, it might
well be wondered just how Russia and/or China could plausibly be brought into the picture, not least because they seem unlikely to be fingered as
the most obvious state sponsors or encouragers of terrorist groups. They would seem far too responsible to be involved in supporting that sort of
terrorist behavior that could just as easily threaten them as well. Some possibilities, however remote, do suggest themselves. For example, how
might the United States react if it was thought or discovered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear
FN 40
and if for some reason Moscow denied any responsibility for nuclear laxity?
The correct attribution of that nuclear material to a particular country might not be a case of science fiction given the observation by Michael May
et al. that while the debris resulting from a nuclear explosion would be spread over a wide area in tiny fragments, its radioactivity makes it
detectable, identifiable and collectable, and a wealth of information can be obtained from its analysis: the efficiency of the explosion, the
materials used and, most important some indication of where the nuclear material came from.41 Alternatively, if the act of nuclear terrorism
came as a complete surprise, and American officials refused to believe that a terrorist group was fully responsible (or responsible at all) suspicion
would shift immediately to state possessors. Ruling out Western ally countries like the United Kingdom and France, and probably Israel and India
as well, authorities in Washington would be left with a very short list consisting of North Korea, perhaps Iran if its program continues, and
possibly Pakistan. But at what stage would Russia and China be definitely ruled out in this high stakes game of nuclear Cluedo? In particular , if
the act of nuclear terrorism occurred against a backdrop of existing tension in Washingtons relations with Russia
and/or China, and at a time when threats had already been traded between these major powers, would officials and political leaders not
be tempted to assume the worst? Of course, the chances of this occurring would only seem to increase if the United States was already
involved in some sort of limited armed conflict with Russia and/or China, or if they were confronting each other from a distance in a proxy war,
as unlikely as these developments may seem at the present time. The reverse might well apply too: should a nuclear terrorist attack occur in
Russia or China during a period of heightened tension or even limited conflict with the United States, could Moscow and Beijing resist the
pressures that might rise domestically to consider the United States as a possible perpetrator or encourager of the attack? Washingtons early
response to a terrorist nuclear attack on its own soil might also raise the possibility of an unwanted (and nuclear
aided) confrontation with Russia and/or China. For example, in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath of the
terrorist nuclear attack, the U.S. president might be expected to place the countrys armed forces, including its nuclear arsenal, on a
higher stage of alert. In such a tense environment, when careful planning runs up against the friction of reality, it is just possible that
Moscow and/or China might mistakenly read this as a sign of U.S. intentions to use force (and possibly nuclear force)
against them. In that situation, the temptations to preempt such actions might grow, although it must be admitted that any
preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response. As part of its initial response to the act of nuclear terrorism (as discussed
earlier) Washington might decide to order a significant conventional (or nuclear) retaliatory or disarming attack against the
leadership of the terrorist group and/or states seen to support that group. Depending on the identity and especially the location of these
targets, Russia and/or China might interpret such action as being far too close for their comfort, and potentially as
an infringement on their spheres of influence and even on their sovereignty. One far-fetched but perhaps not impossible scenario
might stem from a judgment in Washington that some of the main aiders and abetters of the terrorist action resided somewhere such as Chechnya,
perhaps in connection with what Allison claims is the Chechen insurgents long-standing interest in all things nuclear.42 American pressure
on that part of the world would almost certainly raise alarms in Moscow that might require a degree of advanced consultation from Washington
that the latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide.There is also the question of how other nuclear-armed states respond to the act of nuclear
terrorism on another member of that special club. It could reasonably be expected that following a nuclear terrorist attack on the United States,
both Russia and China would extend immediate sympathy and support to Washington and would work alongside the United States in the Security
Council. But there is just a chance, albeit a slim one, where the support of Russia and/or China is less automatic in some cases than in others. For
example, what would happen if the United States wished to discuss its right to retaliate against groups based in their territory? If, for some reason,
Washington found the responses of Russia and China deeply underwhelming, (neither for us or against us) might it also suspect that they
secretly were in cahoots with the group, increasing (again perhaps ever so slightly) the chances of a major exchange. If the terrorist group had
some connections to groups in Russia and China, or existed in areas of the world over which Russia and China held sway, and if Washington felt
that Moscow or Beijing were placing a curiously modest level of pressure on them, what conclusions might it then draw about their culpability? If
Washington decided to use, or decided to threaten the use of, nuclear weapons, the responses of Russia and China would be crucial to the chances
of avoiding a more serious nuclear exchange. They might surmise, for example, that while the act of nuclear terrorism was especially heinous and
demanded a strong response, the response simply had to remain below the nuclear threshold. It would be one thing for a non-state actor to have
broken the nuclear use taboo, but an entirely different thing for a state actor, and indeed the leading state in the international system, to do so. If
Russia and China felt sufficiently strongly about that prospect, there is then the question of what options would lie open to them to dissuade the
United States from such action: and as has been seen over the last several decades, the central dissuader of the use of nuclear weapons by states
has been the threat of nuclear retaliation. If some readers find this simply too fanciful, and perhaps even offensive to contemplate, it may be
informative to reverse the tables. Russia, which possesses an arsenal of thousands of nuclear warheads and that has been one of the
two most important trustees of the non-use taboo, is subjected to an attack of nuclear terrorism. In response, Moscow places its
nuclear forces very visibly on a higher state of alert and declares that it is considering the use of nuclear retaliation against the group and any of
its state supporters. How would Washington view such a possibility? Would it really be keen to support Russias use of nuclear
weapons, including outside Russias traditional sphere of influence? And if not, which seems quite plausible, what options would Washington
have to communicate that displeasure? If China had been the victim of the nuclear terrorism and seemed likely to retaliate in kind, would the
United States and Russia be happy to sit back and let this occur? In the charged atmosphere immediately after a nuclear terrorist attack,
how would the attacked country respond to pressure from other major nuclear powers not to respond in kind? The
phrase how dare they tell us what to do immediately springs to mind. Some might even go so far as to interpret this concern as a tacit form of
Brotherhood) in Egypt, and anarchy in Yemen with a noisy al-Qaeda terrorist presence; and Iraq itself is far from the
Denmark-on-the-Euphrates the Bush administration was predicting. In 2011, only 1,500 Iraqis died of political
violence, the lowest total since Saddams time. But the road, rail, and air transport facilities remain in shambles,
millions of households are left without power for up to 20 hours a day, tankers cant dock near Basra because of the
size of bribes that are extorted from them, and the nearly $60 billion that the U.S. spent in Iraq on reconstruction
seems to have been consumed almost entirely by anti-blast barricades. The former electricity minister, Raad Shalal,
was fired last year for embezzling $1.7 billion (in an Iraqi GDP of $80 billion, thats like a $300 billion theft by an
American public official), and the Fertile Crescent, where cultivated agriculture originated, at least in the Western
world, now imports 80% of its food. The Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is in his second term, though he lost
the last election, and is still trying to arrest his former chief coalition partner, who is beyond apprehension because
he is in the capital of the rebarbative province of Kurdistan. Though comparisons to Vietnam are nonsense, because
the United States was completely militarily successful in Iraq with volunteer armed forces on a congressionally
authorized mission, with fewer than 10% of the casualties in Vietnam, and with the government it left behind not
under full-scale invasion by another country, as South Vietnam was it is not clear that the U.S. will ultimately
have much more to show for its effort in Iraq than it does for Vietnam. Nor is it clear that there was any point to the
Iraq War after Saddam was got rid of. Baghdad recently successfully hosted an Arab League meeting, though twelve
of the 22 member countries did not attend because they think Maliki is too much under the influence of Iran, which
is not why the United States fought the war there. The meeting was a milestone of sorts, as the occasion for a $1
billion municipal cleanup, and security was successfully maintained by 100,000 troops and police.
Heres reverse causal evidence that a lack of interrogation has caused near misses, that can
only get worse in the world of the plan
Thiessen 2011 Mark, columnist for Washington Post and visiting fellow of the American Enterprise Institute,
former speechwriter for George W. Bush and Donald Rumsfield, The CIA's Questioning Worked, The Washington
Post, 04/21/2009, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2009-04-21/opinions/36894735_1_ksm-interrogations-abuzubaydah
This is more than a historical argument. Twice during President Obamas first term in office, al-Qaedas affiliate
in Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), has succeeded in getting bombs onto planes headed for
the United States. In December 2009, this network nearly succeeded in blowing up Northwest Airlines Flight 253 as
it prepared to land in Detroit, Michigan. Disaster was averted only because the bomb malfunctioned. Less than one
year after the attempted attack in Detroit, AQAP penetrated our defenses a second timethis time getting two
package bombs aboard planes headed for the United States, timed to blow up over the eastern seaboard. Disaster
was averted only because of a last-minute tip from Saudi intelligence that allowed us to track down the explosives
before they went off. By the Obama administrations own admission, it was completely unaware that AQAP
had developed the capability or intent to attack us here in America. Notwithstanding the successful drone strike
that killed Anwar al-Awlaki, the fact is that since 2008, the United States has carried out just fourteen drone
strikes against al-Qaeda in Yemen. During that same period, by contrast, the US has carried out 258 drone
strikes against al-Qaeda in Pakistan, operations that have killed fifty-six senior leaders and hundreds of mid- and
lower-level operatives. Why have there been so many successful strikes against al-Qaeda in Pakistan but so few in
Yemen? Clearly the United States has much greater insight into the location and operations of al-Qaeda in South
Asia than it does on the Arabian Peninsula. The reason we have so little information about this virulent new
terror network is that, unlike in the period immediately after 9/11, the United States is no long capturing and
interrogating high-value terrorists who could tell us about their plans to attack the homeland. President Obama
shut down the CIA interrogation program with an executive order. That order could be rescinded by his
successor with the stroke of a pen. Which means the debate over the effectiveness and necessity of enhanced
interrogation is far from over.
logistics become an issue that requires open debate and discussion. Former Vice President
Cheney claimed, If we didnt have that facility at Guantanamo to undertake this activity,
wed have to have it someplace else because theyre a vital source of intelligence
information. It appears President Obama will not look back, but his administration should
consider the legitimate arguments for keeping Guantanamo Bay open. First, it is
important to remember that there are roughly 250 detainees still residing at Guantanamo
Bay today. If the base is closed, the U.S. will still have to house these individuals
somewhere, most likely on domestic soil.
Guantanamo Bays interrogation program key to killing bin Laden and important
intelligence
Stimson 11
Charles, Stimson is a leading expert in criminal law, military law, military commissions and detention
policy at The Heritage Foundation's Center for Legal and Judicial Studies, Detainee Interrogations: Key
to Killing Osama bin Laden, The Heritage Foundation, 05/02/2011,
http://blog.heritage.org/2011/05/02/detainee-interrogations-key-to-killing-osama-bin-laden/
Buried in the flood of information on the extraordinary operation to locate and kill Osama bin Laden is the
critical role of strategic interrogations of detainees, including those at Guantanamo. According to a number
of published reports, Gitmo detainees provided key pieces of information that ultimately lead to the location and
death of Osama bin Laden. Those reports are confirmed, in large part, by the government. A senior official who
briefed the press early this morning explained that detainees in the post-9/11 period flagged for us individuals
who may have been providing direct support to bin Laden and his deputy, [Ayman al-] Zawahiri, after their
escape from Afghanistan. He continued: One courier in particular had our constant attention. Detainees gave
us his nom de guerre, or his nickname, and identified him as both a protg of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the
mastermind of September 11, and a trusted assistant of Abu Faraj al-Libbi, the former number three of alQaeda who was captured in 2005. The United States obtained this information four years ago, the official stated.
One more crucial fact: According to the detainees (note the plural), this individual was one of the few al-Qaeda
couriers trusted by bin Laden. Think about that: This lead was developed during the Bush Administration, most
likely from al-Qaeda associates picked up and transferred to Guantanamo and subject to interrogations that
critics have repeatedly deemed to be pointless in terms of intelligence value. Whether these detainees remain at
Guantanamo is an open question. Even at this early point in the news cycle, it is reasonably clear that detainees at
Guantanamo (and perhaps elsewhere, such as those formerly in CIA custody and now at Guantanamo) who agreed
to long-term lawful strategic interrogation gave the critical nuggets of information that put in motion a series
of events that led to bin Ladens death. For years, we have heard that strategic interrogation of detainees at
Guantanamo was worthless, that the information is (at best) stale and almost certainly of dubious reliability. The
most strident call such interrogations illegal. Even some senior intelligence officials in the Department of Defense
were often dismissive of the value of intelligence gleaned at Guantanamo. Could there be any clearer proof that
those critics are just plain wrong? Intelligence-gathering and analysis has been the backbone of our many
known (and unknown) counterterrorism successes since 9/11. A key part of that has been the role of real-time
tactical interrogations and long-term strategic interrogation. The information gleaned from those
interrogations is fed into a vast and interconnected intelligence network that has resulted in remarkable
achievements in connecting the dots, sometimes over a period of years, to disable plots and kill or capture
terrorists. That intelligence has enabled the U.S., under the leadership of both Presidents Bush and Obama, to
stay on the offensive while remaining vigilant to the very real threats that confront the nation every day.
Yesterday, once again, proves the value of a long-term, lawful terrorist interrogation program.
Deterrence Link
Guantanamo Acts as a deterrent to wanabe terrorists
Nemish 2009 (Mark C., A major in the US airforce. To Close or Not to Close: Guantanamo Bay April 2009.
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA539847)
Another popular argument for leaving Guantanamo Bay open is that merely closing the
prison will not guarantee a change in world opinion. Most likely, criticism will follow
Guantanamo Bay to its next home of record. While many claim detainee abuse and poor
living conditions, the fact is that these same people are going to believe these conditions
will exist anywhere. Former Vice President Cheney offered, My own personal view is that those who are most urgently
advocating that we shut down Guantanamo Bay probably dont agree with our policies anyway.40 Senator Lindsey Graham also
stated, I would like every terrorist wannabe to understand that if you take up arms against us or coalition members, you do so at
your own peril, because a couple of things await you, death or injury on the battlefield, or detention and accountability. These are
solid perspectives surrounding the need to keep the prison open. People that hated it before will hate it as long
as Guantanamo Bay or its successor exists. Moreover, by virtue of the isolated nature of
Guantanamo Bay, it serves as a warning sign for those considering terrorist action against
us. Housing the detainees in the U.S. may seem like a moral victory to human rights
activists, but it will place suspected terrorists on the soil of the very country they intend to
harm. The image of the U.S. will not change overnight with the closing of Guantanamo Bay.
Release Link
GITMO closure causes a dozens of high-level terrorists to get released to Yemen,
independently causing Yemen instability
Daskal 13(Jennifer, an American lawyer who serves as senior counsel for Human Rights Watch, and focuses on
issues of terrorism, criminal law and immigration. She is also currently a political hire at the Department of Justice,
which is seeking to prosecute terror suspects through the criminal justice system instead of through military
tribunals. Dont Close Guantanamo, The New York Times, January 10th, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/11/opinion/dont-close-guantanamo.html?_r=0)
While I have been slow to come to this realization, the signs have been evident for some time. Three years ago,
Barack Obamas administration conducted a comprehensive review of the Guantnamo detainees and concluded
that about four dozen prisoners couldnt be prosecuted, but were too dangerous to be transferred or released.
They are still being held under rules of war that allow detention without charge for the duration of hostilities.
Others happened to hail from Yemen. Although many of them were cleared for transfer, the transfers were
put on indefinite hold because of instability in Yemen, the fear that some might join Al Qaeda forces, and
Yemens inability to put adequate security measures in place. While the specific numbers have most likely
shifted over time, the basic categories persist. These are men whom the current administration will not transfer,
release or prosecute, so long as the legal authority to detain, pursuant to the law of war, endures.
Yemen is the key linchpin of global Al Qaeda theyre key to funding, recruiting, training,
deployment, and are the refuge of last resort
Scheuer 8 [Michael Scheuer is a former CIA intelligence officer, American blogger, historian, foreign policy critic, and political analyst.
He is currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies, Yemens Role in al-Qaedas Strategy,
Terrorism Focus Volume: 5 Issue: 5, February 7, 2008, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news
%5D=4708&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=246&no_cache=1]
Osama bin Laden has always had a very soft spot in his heart for Yemen, saying that it is one of the best Arab and Muslim countries in terms of
its adherence to tradition and the faith [its] topography is mountainous, and its people are tribal and armed, and allow one to breathe clean air
unblemished by humiliation. Yemen is, of course, also the site of his familys origin and he has often praised the Kindah tribe of which his
family is part. The bin Ladens hail from the village of al-Rubat in the Hadramaut region, and Osama took his fourth wife from there. Bin Laden
also has referred often to the religious importance of Yemen, noting the Prophet Muhammads high regard for Yemen because of its quick
adoption of Islam after the faiths founding and because he believed that from Yemen would come 12,000 [fighters] who would support God and
His Prophet, and they are among the best of us (al-Islah, September 2, 1996). Abundant Manpower But affection is always overruled by the
requirements of war-fighting in bin Ladens mentality and Yemen has long figured prominently in the conduct of the defensive
jihad in terms of manpower and geographic importance . Yemenis, for example, have had significant
representation in al-Qaeda since its founding: Tariq al-Fahdli, from southern Yemen, fought alongside bin Laden against the Soviets
and was on Yemeni President Salihs senior council; Nasir Ahmad Nasir al-Bahri (Abu Jandal), who was the longtime chief of his bodyguard unit,
is also from Yemen (al-Quds al-Arabi, August 3, 2004). After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, moreover, bin Laden and several of his
colleagues sent guns, money and Arab veterans of Afghanistan into Yemen to fight alongside the Salih-led insurgents who eventually defeated the
communist regime of southern Yemen to reunify the country in 1990 (al-Qatan al-Arabi, December 27, 1996). Al-Qaedas first anti-U.S. attack
against U.S. troops on the way to Somaliawas conducted in Aden, Yemen, in December 1992. More recently, 80 percent of those involved in
the October 2000 attack on the USS Cole were Saudis of Yemeni origin. The members of the al-Qaeda cell that the FBI dismantled in
Lackawanna, New York in 2002 were all Yemenis. Furthermore, a significant number of the non-Iraqi mujahideen fighting U.S. forces in Iraq are
Yemenis. Indeed, in late 2007 the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Hamzah al-Muhajir, called specifically on the Yemeni Islamists to provide more
fighters to support the Iraqi mujahideen. On November 29, 2007, al-Qaedas chief in Yemen, Nasir al-Wihayshi (aka Abu Basir), publicly
answered that he would immediately send more fighters. Oh Abu Hamzah, here we come, oh, Iraq, here we come, Abu Basir pledged (Message
from the Amir of al-Qaeda in Yemen to Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, November 29, 2007). Lasting Geographic Importance Beyond the extended
manpower fighting for God in happy Yemen, bin Laden and al-Qaeda have always valued what they refer to as the strategic
depth that Yemen affords (al-Islah, September 2, 1996; al-Quds al-Arabi, March 9, 1994). While bin Laden and his organization were
based in Sudan from 1991 to 1996, for example, they established a sort of naval bridge that permitted the flow of guns and fighters between
Yemen and Port Sudan in support of Hasan al-Turabis Islamist regime in Khartoum. In the other direction, bin Laden sent al-Qaeda operatives
from Port Sudan to Yemen and from there infiltrated them into Saudi Arabia across the imperfectly guarded Saudi-Yemeni border as well as into
Oman. In Yemen, bin Laden also cultivated ties with President Salih and prominent Islamist shaykhsincluding Shaykh Abdul Majid al-Zindani,
head of the Yemen Reform Partyand by doing so facilitated the growth of substantial al-Qaeda infrastructure across the country. Al-Qaedas
presence in Yemen also brought it into closer contact with the Egyptian Islamist groups based there: the Gamaa al-Islamiyah and Ayman alZawahiris Egyptian Islamic Jihad, the latter of which later united with al-Qaeda. Finally, al-Qaeda has found that some of its Yemeni
members are of great assistance in inserting al-Qaeda operatives into the states of East Africa, the Indian
Ocean and the South Pacific, because of the Yemeni diaspora that was established centuries ago in those regions by
Yemeni sailors and commercial traders. Operational Key and Base of Last Resort For al-Qaeda, Yemen provides a pivotal,
central base that links its theaters of operation in Afghanistan, Iraq, East Africa and the Far East; it also provides
a base for training Yemeni fighters and for the rest and refit of fighters from multiple Islamist groups after their
tours in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia. Today, it appears to be an especially important safe haven for Somali Islamist
fighters and the leaders of the Union of Islamic Courts who fled their country after the late-2006 invasion of Ethiopian forces. Some of these
Somali fightersafter having regrouped and rearmedhave returned to Mogadishu from Yemen and are contributing to the growth of the
Islamist insurgency there (Christian Science Monitor, February 12, 2007). Al-Qaedas organization in Yemen seems to have stabilized after the
period of turmoil and governmental suppression that followed the November 2002 death of its leader Abu Ali Harithi. Under the abovementioned Abu Basirwho escaped from a Yemeni prison in early 2006al-Qaeda in Yemen clearly has found its legs and is becoming more
active (Yemen Times, July 5, 2007). In late June 2007, for example, Abu Basir issued a warning that al-Qaeda would attack in Yemen if its
members were not released from prison; on July 4, 2007, al-Qaeda attacked, using a suicide car bomb to kill seven Spanish tourists at an ancient
pagan temple east of Sana (al-Jazeera, July 3, 2007). Then, on January 13, the Yemen wing again warned that it would attack if the Salih regime
did not release imprisoned al-Qaeda members; on January 19 al-Qaeda killed two Belgian tourists and their drivers in the Hadramaut area
(Reuters, January 13; Yemen Times, January 26). Abu Basirs organization is thus showing some of the same sophistication demonstrated by alQaeda groups elsewhere: targeting the tourism industry that earns the country foreign exchange; establishing credibility by making threats and
then making good on them; and improving intra-Yemen and international communications by using the internet. In regard to the latter, al-Qaeda
in Yemen published the first issue of its internet journal Sada al-Malahim (The Echo of Battles) on January 13 (memriwmp.org, January 16).
Attacks by al-Qaeda in Yemen are likely to continue at a level that does not lead to an all-out confrontation with Salihs regime. In all likelihood,
al-Qaeda intends to cause just enough sporadic damage to persuade Salihs regime that it is best to curtail its efforts to destroy al-Qaeda and to
allow the group to operate relatively freely in and from Yemen as long as no major attacks are staged in the country. Indeed, such a modus
vivendi may be in the works as Sana officials have experimented with putting imprisoned Islamists through a reeducation process that shows
them the error of their ways and then releases them on the promise of good behavior (al-Sharq al-Awsat, May 21, 2006). This almost certainly
equates to a license for the militants to do what they want, where they want, as long as it is not in Yemen. Possibly signaling a growing
rapprochement between Salih and the militants, al-Qaeda in Yemen spokesman Ahmad Mansur recently claimed that the government had
solicited al-Qaedas support in fighting Shiite rebels in the north in return for easing the persecution of our members (al-Wasat, January 31).
Finally, Yemen has long been regarded by Western and Muslim commentators as a possible refuge-of-last-resort if bin Laden
ever has to flee South Asiabin Laden also has stated such a possibilityand for this reason al-Qaeda must seek to maintain a
viable presence in the country. Al-Qaeda in Yemen is particularly strong in the governorates of Marib and Hadramautthe attacks
described above and others have occurred thereand both share a remote, mountainous topography that is much like that of Afghanistan. The
two provinces also are inhabited by a welter of deeply conservative Islamic tribesMarib alone has four powerful tribes with over 70 clans. As in
Afghanistan, the mores of these Yemeni tribes cause their members to think they must do their duty to protect those who are in need for
protection whatever they have done. This feeling becomes even stronger if those who need protection are religious people, because the tribesmen
here are greatly affected by religious discourse
France, Denmark, other countries in Europe, in the countries that helped and are helping France, and in
other places that shall be named by al Qaeda at other times, the threat states. The attacks will be strong,
serious, alarming, earth-shattering, shocking and terrifying. Under a section of the post on the method of the
attacks, the unidentified writer said the strikes would be group and lone-wolf operations, in addition to the
use of booby-trapped vehicles. All operations will be recorded and published in due time, the message said.
Let France be prepared, and let the helpers of France be prepared, for it is going to be a long war of
attrition. The reference to France appears linked to the groups plans for retaliation against the French-led
military strikes in northern Mali in operations to oust al Qaeda terrorists from the North African country.
The Ansar al-Mujahidin network is a well-known jihadist forum that in the past has published reliably
accurate propaganda messages from al Qaeda and its affiliates. U.S. counterterrorism actions over the past 10
years have prevented al Qaeda from conducting major attacks. However, U.S. officials warn that the group
continues to be dangerous, despite the killing of its top leaders in drone strikes and special operations.
Bioterror Likely
Bioterrorism is a vastly growing and undetectable threat, past negotiations fail
Reuters 2011
Quotes from former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, Terror threat from biological weapons growing
warns Hillary Clinton, Reuters, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/07/biological-weapons-threatgrowing-clinton-says/
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said countries must strengthen their ability to detect and respond to suspicious
outbreaks of infectious disease that could be caused by pathogens falling into the wrong hands. Unfortunately the
ability of terrorists and other non-state actors to develop and use these weapons is growing. Therefore this must
be a renewed focus of our efforts, she said in a speech in Geneva. Because there are warning signs and they are
too serious to ignore. She said Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula had urged brothers with degrees in
microbiology or chemistry to develop a weapon of mass destruction. A crude but effective terrorist weapon
can be made by using a small sample of widely available pathogens, inexpensive equipment and college-level
chemistry and biology, she added. She was addressing a global conference held every five years to review the
Biological Weapons Convention banning biological and toxin weapons, which has been ratified by 165 states. Irans
ambassador Seyed Mohammad Reza Sajjadi, whose country has ratified the 1975 pact, said the meeting should call
on all non-parties, and in particular Israel, to join without delay. Clinton said the United States saw no need to
negotiate a verification regime for the pact as it is extremely difficult to detect biological material and research
can serve dual purposes, both military and civilian. Global negotiations 10 years ago failed to agree on a
verification mechanism.
Brink of bioterror is now and probability is increasing exponentially, anyone can unleash
Bio-Terrorism
Chatterjee 12
U.S Correspondent for the Economic Times, With research in biology taking rapid leaps, Bioterror could
be the next big threat, The Economic Times, 07/30/2012,
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-07-30/news/32942541_1_synthetic-biology-bioterrormobile-apps
Real bioterror attacks could mean couriering toxic microorganisms in innocent little envelopes containing elements
causing fatal diseases like respiratory anthrax, tularemia and pneumonic plague. If the US Commission on the
Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Proliferation and Terrorism is to be believed, by end of
2013, a WMD attack is likely and the kind of weapons used will unlikely be nuclear, but biological. So anthrax
spores could, for instance, be produced in test tubes and enhanced to attack people of say, a specific race or
geographical region. The fear is neither unfounded nor out of a scifi film. In the wake of 9/11, anonymous
anthrax-laced letters were sent to several media outlets and congressional offices causing paranoia and weakening
the postal service. According to estimates, five people were killed, 17 were left ill and over 10,000 people had taken
antibiotics to prevent infection. And Syria has just threatened to unleash biological WMDs if it faces a foreign
attack. The possibility of bioterror attacks have multiplied with research in biology taking rapid leaps with
genome sequencing, synthetic biology, the creation of Synthia (the first synthetic cell built from scratch), and
so on. Once these technologies reach the flexibility of today's mobile apps, they can be misused like any other.
Viruses used for diagnosis can also weaponise diseases. Yeast could be maneuvered to provide all vitamin
supplement intake, not through pills, but through a customised chocolate cake. The same yeast could be injected
with the DNA code of plants like coca, opium poppy and even marijuana, thereby leading to new kinds of narcotic
biocrime. "Research in biology is growing almost thrice as fast as Moore's Law. The biological revolution will be
upon us faster than anything that we have seen so far...faster than mobile or computing revolutions!" says
Marc Goodman, who advises the Interpol, the United Nations, NATO and the US government on technology crimes
and teaches at Singularity University -- an university in Silicon Valley focused on exponentially growing
technologies. "Unfortunately, governments have very little idea of the kind of biological threats. And
meanwhile, the bad guys are getting very good at leveraging new technologies in real time." But who are these
bad guys? This question is becoming relevant and difficult to answer due to two factors: First, the rise of do-ityourself biology groups emulating a computing hacking culture that could include anybody from high school
students to garage hobbyists.
Terrorism Moral
Fighting terrorism with a policy focus is entirely justified their claims to the contrary are
without merit
Horgan and Boyle 8 [John Horgan and Michael J. Boyle** (1 International Center for the Study of Terrorism, Department of
Psychology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; "School of International Relations, University of St Andrews, S! Andrews,
UK), Critical Studies on Terrorism, Vol. 1, No. l, April 2008, A case against Critical Terrorism Studies]
One of the tensions within CTS concems the issue of policy relevance. At the most basic level, there are some sweeping generalizations made
by CTS scholars, often with little evidence. For example, Jackson (2007c) describes the core terrorism scholars (without explicitly saying who
he is referring to) as intimately connected institutionally, nancially, politically, and ideologically - with a state hegemonic project (p. 245).
Without giving any details of who these core scholars are, where they are, what they do, and exactly who funds them, his arguments are
tantamount to conjecture at best. We do not deny that govemments fund terrorism research and terrorism researchers, and that this
can inuence the direction (and even the ndings) of the research. But we are suspicious of over-generalizations of this count
on two grounds: (l) accepting govemment funding or infomiation does not necessarily obviate ones independent scholarly
judgment in a particular project; and (2) having policy relevance is not always a sin. On the rst point, we are in agreement with
some CTS scholars. Gunning provides a sensitive analysis of this problem, and calls on CTS advocates to come to terms with how they can
engage policy-makers without losing their critical distance. He recognizes that CTS can (and should) aim to be policy-relevant, but perhaps to a
different audience, including non-govemmental organizations (NGOs), civil society than just governments and security services. ln other words,
CTS aims to whisper into the ear of the prince. but it is just a different prince. Gurming (2007a) also argues that research should be
assessed on its own merits, for just because a piece of research comes from RAND does not invalidate it; conversely, a critical study is
not inherently good (p. 240). We agree entirely with this. Not all sponsored or contract research is made to toe a party line, and much of the
work coming out of ofcial government agencies or afliated government agencies has little agenda and can be analytically useful. The task of
the scholar is to retain ones sense of critical judgment and integrity, and we believe that there is no prima facie reason to assume that this cannot
be done in sponsored research projects. What matters here are the details of the research what is the purpose of the work, how will it
be done, how might the work be used in policy and for these questions the scholar must be self-critical and insistent on their intellectual
autonomy. The scholar must also be mindful of the responsibility they bear for shaping a govemments response to the problem of terrorism.
Nothing not the source of the funding, purpose of the research or prior empirical or theoretical commitment obviates the need of the scholar
to consider his or her own conscience carefully when engaging in work with any extemal actor. But simply engaging with governments
on discrete projects does not make one an embedded expert nor does it imply sanction to their actions. But we also believe that the
study of political violence lends itself to policy relevance and that those who seek to produce research that might help policy-makers reduce the
rates of terrorist attack are committing no sin, provided that they retain their independent judgment and report their ndings candidly and
honestly. In the case of terrorism, we would go further to argue that being policy relevant is in some instances an entirely
justifiable moral choice . For example, neither of us has any problem producing research with a morally defensible but policy relevant
goal (for example, helping the British govemment to prevent suicide bombers from attacking the London Underground) and we do not believe
that engaging in such work tarnishes ones stature as an independent scholar. Implicit in the CTS literature is a deep suspicion about the state and
those who engage with it. Such a suspicion may blind some CTS scholars to good work done by those associated with the state. But to assume
that being embedded in an institution linked to the establishment consists of being captured by a state hegemonic project is too simple. We do
not believe that scholars studying terrorism must all be policy-relevant. but equally we do not believe that being policy relevant should always be
interpreted as writing a blank cheque for govermnents or as necessarily implicating the scholar in the behaviour of that government on issues
unrelated to ones work. Working for the US government, for instance, does not imply that the scholar sanctions or approves of the abuses at Abu
Ghraib prison. The assumption that those who do not practice CTS are all embedded with the establislunent and that
this somehow gives the green light for states to engage in illegal activity is in our view unwarranted, to say the very
least. The limits of this moral responsibility are overlooked in current CTS work; indeed, if anything there is an attempt to inate the policy
relevance that terrorism scholars have. Jackson (20070) alleges that the direction of domestic counter-terrorism policies are to a large degree
based on orthodox terrorism studies research (p. 225). Yet he provides no examples, let alone evidence for this claim. Jackson further alleges
terrorism studies actually provides an authoritative judgment about who may legitimately be killed, tortured, rendered or incarcerated by the
state in the name of counter-terrorism (p. 249). Again, there is a tension here: Jackson conjures an image of terrorism studies which no matter its
conceptual and empirical aws is somehow able to inuence govemments to the point of constructing who is and is not a legitimate target. This
implies that not only is there a secret cabal of terrorism researchers quietly pulling the strings of government, but also that those engaged in
terrorism research sanction abuse of human rights and statedirected violence. This implies a measure of bad faith on the part of some terrorism
researchers, and we believe that CTS advocates should offer a more nuanced portrayal of those engaged in policy relevant search than this
assessment allows.
Terrorism is evil. Our inability to aggressively fight is morally bankrupt and causes global
violence
Hannity 5 co-host of Hannity & Colmes (Sean, Deliver Us From
Evil, http://www.bookreporter.com/reviews/0060582510-excerpt.asp)
surfaced in the Western world in a way it had not in six decades, since the day of infamy at Pearl Harbor.
Americans were forced to confront pure human wickedness in a way we had not in generations. And in that moment we
rose as one nation to the challenge -- led, fortunately, by a leader who had the clarity of vision to recognize that evil for what it was, and to rally
America and the world against it. Even many of the most committed liberals seemed to have their compasses reoriented in the face of that
unmistakable act of war and crime against humanity. But nearly three years have passed. And in the intervening time our wounds have healed, our
senses and memories dulled. The nation rallied behind its leader long enough to expel the state sponsors of evil in Afghanistan. Yet by the time
the confrontation with Iraq presented itself, our courage and moral certainty seemed to fade in the face of partisan bickering and posturing. We
toppled a murderous dictator in Iraq -- and yet now the political left and the Democratic Party are trying to use the
demanding aftermath of the war to exploit our national cause for their own political advantage. How could we allow
ourselves to forget so soon? I decided to write this book because I believe it is our responsibility to recognize and confront
evil in the world -- and because I'm convinced that if we fail in that mission it will lead us to disaster. Evil exists. It is real,
and it means to harm us. I believe this strongly, and not just because of my Catholic faith, although that's the root of it. When you work in
the news business, you deal with the ugly side of life. Every day across your desk comes story after story about man's inhumanity to man, from
mass murderers to child molesters to mothers who drown their children to husbands who murder their pregnant wives. These stories push the
limits of our ability to imagine man's potential for depravity, and yet they are horrifically true. Still, isolated events like these pale beside the pure
evil of September 11. How could anyone witness the horrors of that day, or the mass graves discovered in Iraq after the
fall of Saddam Hussein, and dismiss the idea of evil? And yet many people do -- most of them political liberals.
Even when they can bring themselves to acknowledge the brutality of a venal tyrant such as Saddam Hussein, they
qualify it. "We are not deny ng that Saddam is a repressive dictator," they say, "but we don't believe we should have attacked Iraq
without giving him more time to comply with the U.N. resolutions." For the appeasement-minded liberals of our country, there's always a "but."
It's difficult for liberals to see such moral questions clearly, because most of them are moral relativists. They reject absolute standards of right and
wrong. In their worldview, man is perfectible, human nature is on a linear path toward enlightenment, and the concept of sin is primitively
biblical. In their view, society's unfairness compels people to break the law. To them people like Saddam and Osama bin Laden are
not morally depraved murderers, but men driven to their bad acts by the injustices of Western society. The emphasis
is always on giving bad actors -- domestic and foreign -- the benefit of the doubt, never on personal accountability.
After all, if we can blame external circumstances or internal imbalance, then we can avoid the messy business of calling the evildoers to account.
This kind of thinking s all too familiar from our courtrooms at home. The justice system today is crawling with "experts" eager to exonerate the
most heinous criminals on the grounds that they're "genetically predisposed" to murder, rape, take drugs, or otherwise endanger the welfare of
others; the media fills its airwaves with liberal advocates eager to sympathize with murderers on death row, instead of the families of the innocent
victims. The trouble with tolerating evil, of course, is that while we're averting our eyes, the evil itself only grows and
festers around the world. This has been true throughout history. Neville Chamberlain assured a wary England that an appeasement pact
with Adolf Hitler would lead to "peace n our time." Cold War liberal elitists ignored or downplayed the atrocities of communism, from the gulag
of "Uncle Joe" Stalin to the killing fields of Cambodia. Bill Clinton stood idly by while Islamic terrorists attacked American targets throughout
the 1990s, in a long prelude that should have alerted us to their burgeoning war on America. The primary evil we face today is
terrorism. But we will never triumph over the terrorists until we realize that groups like al Qaeda are not working
alone. Wthout the deep pockets of terrorist-friendly dictatorships like Saddam Hussein's Iraq to support them, the
loose networks of Islamic terrorism would pose only a fraction of the danger to civilization they currently do. And
those dictatorships, we must realize, are the same brutal regimes that have oppressed their own people for
generations. As President Bush has declared, we can no longer wait around for terrorists to attack us. We must take the war to them, rooting
them out of their swamps and destroying the despotic regimes that furnish their lifeblood.
(the threat of mutual annihilation) would assure our safety. Sept. 11 ripped away that illusion. Deterrence depends on
rationality. But the new enemy is the embodiment of irrationality: nihilists with a cult of death, yearning for the
apocalypse--armed, ready and appallingly able. The primordial fear that haunted us through the first days and weeks
after 9/11 has dissipated. Not because the threat has disappeared but for the simple reason that in our ordinary lives
we simply cannot sustain that level of anxiety. The threat is as real as it was on Sept. 12. It only feels distant because
it is psychologically impossible to constantly face the truth and yet carry on day to day. But as it is the first duty of
government to provide for the common defense, it is the first duty of any post-9/11 government to face that truth
every day--and to raise it to national consciousness at least once every four years, when the nation chooses its leaders. Fearmongering? Yes.
And very salutary. When you live in an age of terrorism with increasingly available weapons of mass destruction, it is
the absence of fear that is utterly irrational.
Empiricism Good
Empiricism is good and true when it comes to terrorism
Horgan and Boyle 8 [John Horgan and Michael J. Boyle** (1 International Center for the Study of Terrorism, Department of
Psychology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; "School of International Relations, University of St Andrews, S! Andrews,
UK), Critical Studies on Terrorism, Vol. 1, No. l, April 2008, A case against Critical Terrorism Studies]
Furthermore, we also realize the inherent challenge in attempting to be a disinterested observer of social phenomena
(problems with this, as shall be shown, lie at the heart of some of the raison d 'tre for CTS) particularly in a eld as contested as
terrorism studies. Terrorism is a widely disputed social and political phenomenon and the very act of data
collection which includes, for example, discerning what events count and do not count as terrorism cannot be considered
entirely value free. The terrorism scholar can try to be as independently minded as possible and test for the robustness of ndings based on
different denition of the data, but the basic problem that terrorism studies is ineluctably political remains. In our view,
this does not lead to an abandonment of empirical approaches to social and political inquiry. Instead, we believe that
the empirical approach is a powerful and useful way to study terrorism, and that a key contribution of CTS can
be to make empirical scholarship more self-aware and reective in its practice.2 We do not believe that concepts
without tight analytic boundaries - for example, the state or power cannot be used in research, though they must be used
with some care and self-awareness. As a matter of policy, neither of us believes that any form of intellectual enterprise should be
discarded if it happens to run contrary to our interests or to challenge what we do. We welcome the contribution of CTS only if it helps to
improve the analytic rigor of terrorism or open new avenues of research. We believe that as Mao put it that in academia it is always a good
idea to let a hundred owers bloom; let a hundred schools of thought contend. We say this as a prelude to qualifying the criticisms below,
levelled at CTS (or at least its current incamation) as a way of stimulating debate, not silencing it.
DA Turns Case
Only Winning the War on Terror solves the legal justification for the War on Terror.
Daskal 13(Jennifer, an American lawyer who serves as senior counsel for Human Rights Watch, and focuses on
issues of terrorism, criminal law and immigration. She is also currently a political hire at the Department of Justice,
which is seeking to prosecute terror suspects through the criminal justice system instead of through military
tribunals. Dont Close Guantanamo, The New York Times, January 10th, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/11/opinion/dont-close-guantanamo.html?_r=0)
The political reality is that closure of Guantnamo is unlikely to happen anytime soon, and if it did, it would
do more harm than good . We should instead focus on finding places to transfer those cleared to leave the facility
and, more important, on defining the end to the war. In a recent speech, Jeh Johnson, then the Department of
Defense general counsel, discussed a future tipping point at which Al Qaeda would be so decimated that the
armed conflict would be deemed over. Statements from high level officials suggest that this point may be near.
And as the United States pulls out of Afghanistan, there is an increasingly strong argument that the war against Al
Qaeda is coming to a close. With the end of the conflict, the legal justification for the detentions will finally
disappear. At that point, the remaining men in Guantnamo can no longer be held without charge, at least not
without running afoul of basic constitutional and international law prohibitions. Only then is there a realistic
hope for meaningful closure, not by recreating a prison in the United States but through the arduous process
of transferring, releasing or prosecuting the detainees left there.
GITMO cant close until the war on terror ends-too big of a threat to US
Crowley 13 (Michael, Michael Crowley is a senior correspondent for TIME. He previously covered domestic
politics and foreign policy for The New Republic, and was also a reporter at the Boston Globe. He has also written
for such publications as New York magazine, GQ, Slate, and the New York Times magazine, Why Gitmo Will
Never Close, Time Inc, May 30, 2013, http://swampland.time.com/2013/05/30/why-gitmo-will-never-close/3/) SS
But Obama will be hard-pressed to live up to his grand rhetoric. Opposition still runs high to the idea of releasing or bringing into
U.S. prisons dozens of men widely considered dangerous terrorists even if many are not. Asked to gauge the probability
that Obama can close Guantnamo before he leaves office, David Remes, a lawyer who represents 18 Guantnamo inmates replies, Zero. And even if Obama can
shut down the site known colloquially as Gitmo, he hasnt promised to end the practice of long-term incarceration without trial that along with interrogation
techniques like waterboarding blighted the U.S.s track record for treating prisoners in the so-called global war on terrorism. The prison camp on Cubas southern tip
may or may not be shuttered during Obamas watch, but Gitmo,
al-Shihri months after his 2007 release from Gitmo, eventually rising to the No. 2 spot in al-Qaedas Yemeni branch before being killed by a drone strike earlier this
year. I dont trust the government in Yemen, Republican Representative Peter King told ABCs This Week on May 26. But they cant prevent Obama from
proceeding. How fast hell move is another question: Obama said each of the Yemenis must first undergo yet another review. The second and third groups are
considerably tougher cases. Obama would like to move the trials by military commissions now under way at Guantnamo to a location in the U.S. and bring any new
cases against prosecutable suspects on American soil, either in military or civilian courts. He also presumably intends to move to highly secure sites in the U.S. the
roughly 46 who can be neither released nor tried, until some solution can be found for them. But right now Obama cant move any detainees into the U.S. without
Congresss help. In 2009 he tried to resettle some low-risk prisoners in the U.S. and also proposed trying alleged 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four
other Gitmo inmates in federal court. A furious backlash from conservatives and even many Democrats who feared the soft-on-terrorists label prompted Congress to
block inmate transfers into the U.S. for any reason. And while Obamas May 23 speech may have stirred the hearts of some liberal supporters, it doesnt seem to have
moved the Republicans whose support hell need to move detainees into the U.S., particularly in the GOP-controlled House of Representatives. I dont get the sense
that this pressure is having an impact on House Republicans, says Representative Adam Smith, the top-ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.
Many Republicans argue that the risk of detainees committing future acts of terrorism outweighs the damage Guantnamo does to the U.S.s image. And they have
little interest in Obamas appetite for moving more terrorism cases into civilian courts. Lately Obama has tried speaking the language Republicans best understand
spendingby pointing out that each inmate at Gitmo costs $800,000 per year to house, for a total of about $150 million per year in operations. But when it comes to
closing Gitmo, Smith says, many of the Republicans whose support Obama would need to approve transfers to U.S. prisons have boxed themselves in politically.
House Speaker John Boehner, for instance, has called the prison a world-class facility and in 2010 said he wouldnt vote to close it if you put a gun to my head.
The broader themes of Obamas speech may not have helped the Guantnamo cause either. Far from agreeing with the Presidents talk of a severely weakened alQaeda and his aspiration to wind down the war on terrorism, some Republicans accused him of complacency and retreat. Newt Gingrich called Obamas vision
breathtakingly, stunningly naive. Such talk is hardly the groundwork for a new spirit of cooperation. Some Problems Have No Solution Even
assuming
that the president can close Gitmo by resettling some detainees in other countries and bringing the rest to
trials and prisons in the U.S., a major problem will remain: What to do with the 48 detainees who cant be
tried or released for fear that they will return to the battlefield of the war on terrorism? After all, holding
prisoners without charges would seem to violate the Constitutions fundamental habeas corpus guarantee .
Obama doesnt claim to have a clear answer, and his speech punted the question. He said only that once we commit to a process of closing [Guantnamo], I am
confident that this legacy problem can be resolved, consistent with our commitment to the rule of law. For now, Obama deals with this legal equivalent of radioactive
waste by treating those inmates as prisoners of war. In March 2009, Obamas lawyers filed a legal brief justifying detention of Gitmo detainees under the laws of war
in this case the war on al-Qaeda, made official by Congresss September 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF), which allowed for the invasion
of Afghanistan and other counterterrorism efforts. Ironically, while it decries Guantnamo as contrary to American values, the Obama Administration has convinced
courts of its legal validity, says Matthew Waxman, a former Bush detainee policy official now at Columbia Law School. Rather than see Obama stretch that validity
in new directions, one prominent human rights lawyer has actually argued for keeping Gitmo open. Closing
that the law should be broadened, not narrowed or repealed. Rhetoric about the founders aside, its hard to imagine Obamas releasing trained al-Qaeda members who
have not renounced terrorism into the wild, as it were. The Administrations view seems to be that so long as its only a small number of very dangerous al-Qaeda
terrorists, it is legitimate to hold them without trial, Waxman says. Obama would prefer not to hold them in the prison that stains Americas international reputation.
But he may find the moral high ground he seeks is simply out of his reach.
A2: No Motive
Al-Qaedas leader has plans for nuclear terrorism, mass death fits with their values
Mowatt Larssen 10 (Rolf Mowatt-Larssen is a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International
Affairs at Harvard University. He served over three decades in the U.S. Army, CIA, and Energy Department. Al
Qaedas nuclear ambitions, Foreign Policy, 11/16/2010,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/11/16/al_qaedas_nuclear_ambitions?page=0,1)
First, America is a special object of Zawahiri's attention when discussing a nuclear attack. Zawahiri explicitly
ties U.S. crimes to the alleged need to use WMD, quoting Fahd: "There is no doubt that the greatest enemy of
Islam and Muslims at this time is the Americans." Zawahiri further explains that he considers the United States to
be a "single juridical entity" under Islam. It's a verdict with chilling implications: Zawahiri means to say that all
Americans are valid targets, regardless of whether they are men, women, or children. This is not a mere aside; it is
a careful choice of words that reflects a seriousness of purpose. Indeed, he is at pains to prove his judiciousness. He
cites a variety of viewpoints from the Quran and hadiths (sayings of the Prophet Mohammed), some of which
support his judgments, others which do not. At times, he dramatically prefaces his conclusion with the words "I
say ..." to draw attention to the fact that his judgments digress from the views held by some Islamic scholars; it is
also a way for Zawahiri -- a medical doctor, not a religious scholar by training -- to assume authority for himself as
an arbiter of Islamic law. Second, al Qaeda has reckoned with the horrific scale of a nuclear attack; indeed,
Zawahiri sees mass casualties as a point in WMDs' favor. Zawahiri's book explicitly justifies a potential attack
that could kill 10 million Americans. Again, that enormous figure is not merely tossed off casually by
Zawahiri. He believes that such a plan requires justification, and he is satisfied, at the conclusion of his book,
that he has done so.
2002, the Justice Department advised the White House that torturing al Qaeda terrorists in
captivity abroad "may be justified," and that international laws against torture "may be unconstitutional if
applied to interrogations" conducted in President Bush's war on terrorism, according to a newly obtained
memo. If a government employee were to torture a suspect in captivity, "he would be doing so in order to
prevent further attacks on the United States by the Al Qaeda terrorist network," said the memo, from the Justice Department's office of legal
counsel, written in response to a CIA request for legal guidance. It added that arguments centering on "necessity and self-defense could provide
justifications that would eliminate any criminal liability" later. The memo seems to counter the pre-Sept. 11, 2001, assumption that
U.S. government personnel would never be permitted to torture captives. It was offered after the CIA began detaining and interrogating suspected al Qaeda leaders in
Afghanistan and elsewhere in the wake of the attacks, according to government officials familiar with the document. The legal
Pentagon group's report, divulged yesterday by the Wall Street Journal and obtained
further that the 1994 law barring torture "does not apply to the conduct of U.S. personnel" at
Guantanamo Bay. It also said the anti-torture law did apply to U.S. military interrogations that occurred outside U.S. "maritime and territorial jurisdiction,"
by The Post, said
such as in Iraq or Afghanistan. But it said both Congress and the Justice Department would have difficulty enforcing the law if U.S. military personnel could be shown
to be acting as a result of presidential orders. The report then parsed at length the definition of torture under domestic and international law, with an eye toward
guiding military personnel about legal defenses. The
Pentagon report uses language very similar to that in the 2002 Justice
Department memo written in response to the CIA's request: "If a government defendant were to harm an
enemy combatant during an interrogation in a manner that might arguably violate criminal prohibition, he
would be doing so in order to prevent further attacks on the United States by the al Qaeda terrorist
network," the draft states. "In that case, DOJ [Department of Justice] believes that he could argue that the
executive branch's constitutional authority to protect the nation from attack justified his actions." The draft goes
on to assert that a soldier's claim that he was following "superior orders" would be available for those engaged in "exceptional interrogations except where the conduct
goes so far as to be patently unlawful." It asserts, as does the Justice view expressed for the CIA, that the mere infliction of pain and suffering is not unlawful; the pain
or suffering must be severe.
considerable amount of valuable intelligence being derived from the Guantanamo detainees. But the gathering of
intelligence is not the only purpose of detaining these folks. The primary pre-eminent purpose is to prevent them from
returning to the fight against the United States, from planning terrorist acts against US civilians or against
our forces overseas. It's a matter of incapacitation and intelligence. INSKEEP: In 2004, an FBI memorandum was
written, which has since been made public, in which the techniques being used at Guantanamo Bay to get intelligence were
described as so coercive that the information was, quote, "suspect at best." It does raise the question about whether we're getting anything
useful. Mr. BERENSON: It's not surprising that to the eyes of domestic law enforcement officials, military interrogation and military intelligence
operations appeared harsh. That isn't to say that the intelligence we're getting from the Guantanamo detainees isn't
valuable or isn't reliable. INSKEEP: Isn't it kind of a truism that if someone is tortured they will say anything to stop the torture? Mr.
BERENSON: Well, there's a big difference between true physical coercion and torture and the application of
psychological pressure. And determining whether someone is telling you the truth is something that these
interrogators are skilled at and, from what I understand, we've learned a lot about terrorist financing, bomb
construction, al-Qaeda's structure, training and its means of smuggling agents into the United States from
interrogations of those held at Guantanamo .
and closely allied groups like the Mehsud Pakistan Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Jaish-e-Muhammed which have
shown themselves capable of striking against hardened military targets in Pakistan.
Enhanced interrogation is the only way to get to the psychological breaking point that
produces actionable intelligence.
Thiessen 2011 Mark, columnist for Washington Post and visiting fellow of the American Enterprise Institute,
former speechwriter for George W. Bush and Donald Rumsfield, Documented: The WikiLeaks That Show Enhanced
Interrogation Worked, World Affairs, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/documented-wikileaks-showenhanced-interrogation-worked
Critics claim that enhanced techniques do not produce good intelligence because people will say anything to get
the techniques to stop. But the memos note that, "as Abu Zubaydah himself explained with respect to enhanced
techniques, 'brothers who are captured and interrogated are permitted by Allah to provide information when
they believe they have reached the limit of their ability to withhold it in the face of psychological and physical
hardship." In other words, the terrorists are called by their faith to resist as far as they can -- and once they
have done so, they are free to tell everything they know. This is because of their belief that "Islam will
ultimately dominate the world and that this victory is inevitable." The job of the interrogator is to safely help
the terrorist do his duty to Allah, so he then feels liberated to speak freely.
until proven guilty' but these terrorist suspects did not grow up in this country and they certainly do not play
by our rules. For such 'bleeding heart liberals', invite one of these terrorist suspects to your house for dinner
with your family and have a conversation with him (through an Interpreter). Your kids may be greatly impressed
to learn that he might have read the 'Harry Potter' series of books which are provided in the Gitmo library in Russian
and Arabic. Allow him to pray in your house. (He knows you can't understand a word he says so he'll probably be
praying for the death of you and your family.) After that experience, rejoin the rest of the world with a realistic
outlook regarding the prospects of anything good coming out of Guantanamo Bay. Also, write a letter to your
Senator and Representative to tell them what you think about the government spending $140 million this year on
that facility or $800,000 per detainee.
conflict between those for whom the category of the enemy is essential to their way of organizing all human
experience and those who have banished even the idea of the enemy from both public discourse and even their
innermost thoughts. But those who abhor thinking of the world through the category of the enemy must still be prepared to think about the
category of the enemy. That is, even if you refuse to think of anyone else as an enemy, you must acknowledge that
there are people who do in fact think this way. Yet even this minimal step is a step that many of our leading
intellectuals refuse to take, despite the revelation that occurred on 9/11. they want to see 9/11 as a means to an end and not
an end in itself. But 9/11 was an end in itself, and that is where we must begin. Why do they hate us? They hate us because we
are their enemyIt is the enemy who defines us as his enemy, and in making this definition he changes us,
and changes us whether we like it or not. We cannot be the same after we have been defined as an enemy as we were
before. That is why those who uphold the values of the Enlightenment so often refuse to recognize that those who are trying to kill us
are their enemy. They hope that by pretending that the enemy is simply misguided, or misunderstood, or
politically immature, he will cease to be an enemy. This is an illusion. To see the enemy as someone who is
merely an awkward negotiator of sadly lacking in savoir faire and diplomatic aplomb is perverse. It shows contempt for the
depth and sincerity of his convictions, a terrible mistake to make when you are dealing with someone who
wants you dead. We are the enemy of those who murdered us on 9/11. And if you are an enemy, then you have
an enemy. When you recognize it, this fact must change everything about the way you see the world.
Criticism is useless at this time we must confront terrorists that are hell bent to destroy us.
Peters 4 [Ralph, retired U.S. Army intelligence officer, Parameters, In Praise of Attrition.
Summer, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IBR/is_2_34/ai_n6082901/pg_1 ]
Trust me. We don't need discourses. We need plain talk, honest answers, and the will to close with the enemy and
kill him. And to keep on killing him until it is unmistakably clear to the entire world who won. When military officers
start speaking in academic gobbledygook, it means they have nothing to contribute to the effectiveness of our forces. They badly need an
assignment to Fallujah. Consider our enemies in the War on Terror. Men who believe, literally, that they are on a mission
from God to destroy your civilization and who regard death as a promotion are not impressed by elegant maneuvers.
You must find them, no matter how long it takes, then kill them. If they surrender, you must accord them their rights
under the laws of war and international conventions. But, as we have learned so painfully from all the mindless,
leftwing nonsense spouted about the prisoners at Guantanamo, you are much better off killing them before they have
a chance to surrender. We have heard no end of blather about network-centric warfare, to the great profit of defense
contractors. If you want to see a superb--and cheap example of "net-war," look at al Qaeda. The mere possession of
technology does not ensure that it will be used effectively. And effectiveness is what matters
Militaristic solutions foster long term peace only killing terrorists can solve terrorism
Peters 4 [Ralph, retired U.S. Army intelligence officer, Parameters, In Praise of Attrition.
Summer, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IBR/is_2_34/ai_n6082901/pg_1 ]
It is not enough to materially defeat your enemy. You must convince your enemy that he
has been defeated. You cannot do that by bombing empty buildings. You must be willing to
kill in the short term to save lives and foster peace in the long term. This essay does not suppose that
warfare is simple: "Just go out and kill' era." Of course, incisive attacks on command networks and control capabilities, well-considered
psychological operations, and humane treatment of civilians and prisoners matter profoundly, along with many other complex factors.
But at
a time when huckster contractors and "experts" who never served in uniform
prophesize bloodless wars and sterile victories through technology, it's essential that those
who actually must fight our nation's wars not succumb to the facile theories or shimmering
vocabulary of those who wish to explain war to our soldiers from comfortable offices. It is
not a matter of whether attrition is good or bad. It's necessary. Only the shedding of their
blood defeats resolute enemies. Especially in our struggle with God-obsessed terrorists--the
most implacable enemies our nation has ever faced there is no economical solution.
Unquestionably, our long-term strategy must include a wide range of efforts to do what we,
as outsiders, can to address the environmental conditions in which terrorism arises and
thrives (often disappointingly little--it's a self-help world). But, for now, all we can do is to impress our enemies,
our allies, and all the populations in between that we are winning and will continue to win.
The only way to do that is through killing.
is scant evidence to support any direct correlation between those who have suffered and those who
commit acts of terrorism. Indeed on both an individual and group level, many of those who have suffered most scrupulously
avoid such acts. The PLO, by contrast, purports to represent the Palestinian people, a group with options for non-violent political action and
resources including wealth and education. Yet the PLO deliberately engages in terrorist acts while eschewing all other means of political redress.
Any Arab leader showing the slightest inclination towards accommodation with Israel has risked assassination. Thus, PLO terror should be
recognized as a cause for, not the result of, Palestinian frustration, desperation, and misery.
With no root cause of terrorism readily identifiable, terrorism cannot be extinguished at its source , and
individuals cannot be deterred from pursuing its means in the hope of securing their desired ends . This leaves
strong intelligence as the best tool available to counterterrorism. While continuing with research into terrorist demographics
and profiling, the majority of resources must be directed for the most effective counterterrorism strategy, and thus in many ways we must move
away from a terrorist profile. Instead, terrorist organizations must be infiltrated, their leaders rounded up, and their cells
broken.
Politics DA
Obama Good
Bipartisan support of keeping Guantanamo Bay among Congress and their
constituents,
Catalini 13(Michael, Catalini is a staff writer covering politics. Previously at National Journal, he was deputy
editor of Influence Alley, covering Congress and K Street. He graduated from Penn State with a bachelor's degree in
journalism and has a master's degree in government from Johns Hopkins. Political Barriers Stand Between Obama
and Closing Guantanamo Facility, National Journal, May 3rd 2013,
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/political-barriers-stand-between-obama-and-closing-guantanamo-facility20130503)
The last time President Obama tried to close the Guantanamo Bay detention center, Congress stopped him abruptly.
The Senate did what it rarely does: It voted in bipartisan fashion, blocking his attempt at funding the closure. Four years
later, and the political barriers that blocked the president from closing the camp that now houses 166 detainees are as immovable as
ever. Moving the prisoners to facilities in the U.S., a solution the administration suggested, proved to be a political minefield in 2009. Most
Americans oppose closing the base, according to a polls, and congressional leaders have balked at taking action. The Cuban camp is grabbing
headlines again because of a hunger strike among the detainees. Nearly 100 have stopped eating, and the military is forcing them to eat by
placing tubes through their noses, the Associated Press reported. The president reconfirmed his opposition to the camp, responding to a question
about the recent hunger strikes at Guantanamo Bay with regret in his voice. Well, it is not a surprise to me that we've got problems in
Guantanamo, which is why, when I was campaigning in 2007 and 2008 and when I was elected in 2008, I said we need to close Guantanamo. I
continue to believe that we've got to close Guantanamo, he said. Obama blamed his failure to follow through on a campaign promise on
lawmakers. Now, Congress determined that they would not let us close it, he said. Despite Obamas desire to close the base
and his pledge this week to go back to this, he touched on a political reality: Lawmakers are not inclined to touch the issue. "The president
stated that the reason Guantanamo has not closed was because of Congress. That's true," Majority Leader Harry Reid
told reporters last month, declining to elaborate. The stakes for Obama on this issue are high when it comes to his liberal base,
who would like to see him display the courage of his convictions and close the camp. But the political will is lacking, outside a small contingent
of lawmakers, including Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois and five other liberal Democrats who sided with Obama in 2009, and left-leaning opinion
writers. Congressional Democrats, unlike Obama, will have to face voters again. And closing the camp is deeply unpopular. A
Washington Post/ABC News poll in February 2012 showed that 70 percent of Americans wanted to keep the camp open to detain terrorist
suspects, and in a 2009 Gallup Poll, a majority said they would be upset if it shut down. In 2009, the Senate voted 90-6 to block the
presidents efforts at closing the camp. Obama had signed an order seeking to close the detention center, but the Senates vote denied the
administration the $80 million needed to fund the closure. Closing the camp in Cuba and bringing the detainees into the United States grates
against the political sensibilities of many lawmakers. Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist who served as Reids spokesman at the time,
remembers the debate very well. I'm still not sure that there's much of an appetite among Democrats on the Hill to
try and deal with this issue once and for all, Manley said in an interview.
Plan unpopular in a bipartisan and especially Republican stance in both the House and
Senate
Brown 2013(Hayes, Brown is a National Security Reporter/Blogger with ThinkProgress.org. Prior to joining
ThinkProgress, Hayes worked as a contractor at the Department of Homeland Security. Republicans Are Resisting
Obamas Renewed Attempt To Close Gitmo, Thinkprogress, May 7th, 2013
http://thinkprogress.org/security/2013/05/07/1974601/republicans-vow-to-block-obamas-renewed-attempt-to-closegitmo/?mobile=nc)
Obamas renewed calls to close the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba are already being met
with promises of further stonewalling from Republicans in Congress, before a new plan can even be put
President
forward. Its not new that Republicans oppose the idea that closing a prison that has been for years now a symbol of
U.S. disregard for human rights would be in the interests of the United States, having blocked administration
proposals several times. And now, Republicans are already shooting down Obamas renewed push, mostly based
on previous proposals to transport detainees to supermax prisons in the United States: Senate Minority
Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY): There is wide, bipartisan opposition in Congress to the presidents goal of
moving those terrorists to American cities and towns. Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC): [The detainees are]
individuals hell-bent on our destruction and destroying our way of life. Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL): All of
the prisoners housed at Guantanamo are terrorists. They pose an obvious threat to our national security, and
they should not be allowed to set foot on our soil. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN): The American people
expect us to keep them safe. I have yet to hear one good reason why moving these terrorists from off our
shores right into the heart of our country makes us safer. Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN): The president
needs to realize that the Global War on Terrorism did not end with the killing of Osama bin Laden. The Boston
bombing is a sharp reminder that there is still a clear and present threat to our American way of life from those
that mean us harm. Rep. Jimmy Duncan (R-TN): [Detainees] are not U.S. citizens and should not be given
the same rights and privileges as if they were. [...] I do not support any plan for these prisoners that puts them
on U.S. soil.
Plan is unpopular alternatives are viewed as less safe and domestic holding has a NIMBY
attitude amongst politicians.
Rogan 12(Tom, Why Guantanamo Bay should remain open, Daily Caller, September 24th, 2012,
http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/24/why-guantanamo-bay-should-remain-open/)
As I see it, there are two major considerations that should drive the debate about Guantanamos future. The first is whether keeping the facility
open is the best way for the U.S. government to protect the American people. I think it is. It offers several compelling advantages
over the alternatives. For one, the detainees are guarded by well-trained MPs, isolated from support and held
in a place from which escape would be nearly impossible . Remember, many Guantanamo detainees are resourceful,
ideologically committed enemies of the United States who have stated that they want to maim and kill Americans, so its
important that theyre kept in a facility thats as secure as possible. Closing the Guantanamo facility and
opening a new detention facility in the U.S. would pose profound security risks. The new facility would
become a beacon for extremists and an expensive, highly complex challenge to secure. Just look at what happened when the Obama
administration attempted to try Khalid Sheik Mohammed in New York City (an effort which it has since abandoned). And while many
politicians love the idea of a domestic detention facility, few want one in their backyard.
suicide attempt from the prisoners and therefore continuing to force-feed, President Obama may be forced to rethink
the whole situation. Some UN officials are urging him to renew his support for the closing of Guantanamo Bay.
Dip Cap
Links
Plan uses Dip Cap and puts National Security at risk
Schreiber, 2010 (Jeff Schreiber, Jeff Schreiber, founder and managing editor of Americas Right, wasnt always
on the right side of the traditional political spectrum. Or the correct side, for that matter. A 2000 graduate from
Auburn University, Jeff took his Bachelors Degree in Journalism and began his professional career at the Seneca
Daily Journal-Messenger, a small daily newspaper in the Golden Corner of the Palmetto State, where he covered
county and city government and more in Pickens County and Clemson, South Carolina, A Few Notes on
WikiLeaks, Americas Right, November 28, 2010, http://americasright.com/2010/11/28/a-few-notes-on-wikileaks/)
We dont want terrorists in our country. The House GOP even introduced legislation looking to prevent just that
from happening. Should it come as a surprise that other nations feel the same way, so much so that what
amounts to diplomatic bribery needs to be undertaken in order to facilitate such a transfer? Unfortunately,
this administration cares so much about appeasing its far left base that it would rather spend what diplomatic
capital we have on achieving the goal of shuttering Guantanamo Bayand thus putting our national security
at risk purely for the sake of politicsthan reserve our capacity for deal-making for times in which we truly
need it perhaps in the ongoing fight against Islamic jihad at its roots overseas.
Spending DA
1nc
Guantanamo closing will force U.S to waste money and spend more money on new ones
without much change to global opinion
Nemish 9 Major in the Air Force writing research report, To Close or Not to Close: Guantanamo Bay, Air
Command and Staff University, April 2009,
http://dtlweb.au.af.mil///exlibris/dtl/d3_1/apache_media/L2V4bGlicmlzL2R0bC9kM18xL2FwYWNoZV9tZWRpY
S8zMzgzOA==.pdf
Another reason to keep Guantanamo Bay open involves the amount of resources already invested in the
current facility. The U.S. has already spent a substantial amount of money to ensure Guantanamo Bay meets a
high standard for detainee operations. For instance, the government spent approximately $54 million to build
the high-security detention facilities.35 In addition, Guantanamo Bay added a new expeditionary legal
complex for the military commission trials at a price of $10 to $12 million.36 Another $4.4 million went
towards construction costs for a fence around the radio range where Joint Task Force- Guantanamo Bay (JTFGTMO) houses their electronic monitoring equipment.37 Annually, the government spends an estimated $125
million in operating costs.38 Finally, Guantanamo Bay has a medical facility with a staff of more than 100
personnel, up to 30 inpatient beds, a physical-therapy area, pharmacy, radiology department, central
sterilization area, and a single-bed operating room. Another popular argument for leaving Guantanamo Bay open
is that merely closing the prison will not guarantee a change in world opinion. Most likely, criticism will follow
Guantanamo Bay to its next home of record. While many claim detainee abuse and poor living conditions, the
fact is that these same people are going to believe these conditions will exist anywhere. Former Vice President
Cheney offered, My own personal view is that those who are these figures may seem extraordinary, but the key
point is that it will probably cost this much or more to establish comparable new facilities in the U.S. to
accommodate the remaining detainees. In addition, what expense comes with transferring them to any of
these locations? Why spend this amount of money again, rather than keep the current facilities in operation?
It clearly does not pass the common sense test.
Counterplans
Reform
Guantanamo Bay should not be closed and only remembered as a symbol of unchecked presidential power. It is a facility that can
serve a greater purpose for our country than it has in the past.
Kritiks
Link
Link Give Back the Land
Colatrella, 11 (Steven, taught at Bard College, the New School and the American University of Rome, Fulbright
scholar, Chair of the Department of Political and Social Sciences at John Cabot University in Rome and President of
the Iowa Sociological Association, Nothing Exceptional: Against Agamben, Journal for Critical Education Policy
Studies, vol.9. no.1, page 104-105, November 2011, Online, http://www.jceps.com/PDFs/09-1-05.pdf, accessed
7/23/13) PE
Three omissions will serve to help us see the limits of Agambens vision, and why these limitations weaken the very
explanatory power of his analysis of even what he so insightfully describes. First, in neither Homo Sacer nor in State
of Exception is there any mention of Native Americans. This may seem either tangential or unfair as a complaint.
After all, Agamben is interested in todays political repression and is European. There would seem to be no particular
reason for him to privilege, or even to be interested in the history of Native America. And perhaps it is only my own
background as an American that leads me to consider this relevant. But I think that neither Agambens Italian
nationality, nor my US nationality are important here. Homo Sacer is purported to be a concept that enables us to
grasp how and why some members of society, and by implication any of us, can be stripped of any legal protection
or community membership, and killed or subjected to any lesser punishment including torture, with impunity. The
Native American experience is, arguably, the paradigmatic case of entire populations being dispossessed, killed with
impunity, provided no protection legal or otherwise, or, as in the case of the Cherokee and other southern nations,
having the formal legal recognition by both the local states and the US Supreme Court, superseded by executive
power (by President Andrew Jackson to be precise). Granted, no book can cover every relevant case and Agambens
books discussed here are both short, if dense. But he does, in State of Exception go over a very thorough history of
states of emergency and the use of exceptional powers by governments all over the world9. Tracing the roots of both
states of exception and of the construction of homo sacer figures in liberal democratic countries is a part of the
exercise that Agamben is engaged in. Thus failing to even refer to Native Americans is significant, both with
reference to the historical period when The only good Indian is a dead Indian was a practical guide to genocide
that more closely approximates homo sacer historically than anything I can imagine and to the present day when
many Native Americans would argue with reason that little has changed.
Case Frontlines
Inherency
Squo Solves
Obama pushing for Gitmo closure
WUSA, 13 (President Obama Reiterates Need To Close Guantanamo Bay, 2:25 PM, Apr 30, 2013, Online,
http://www.wusa9.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=257227, accessed 7/23/13) PE
President Obama said on Tuesday that his administration would reengage Congress on closing the U.S.
military run detention center at Guantanamo Bay. "It needs to be closed," Obama said at a White House news
conference. "I'm going to go back at this." Obama's comments come with reports that as many as 100 prisoners at
Guantanamo are in the midst of a hunger strike. Obama had vowed in his 2008 campaign to close Guantanamo,
but failed to get it done in his first term. "It' is not a surprise to me that we are having problems at Guantanamo."
Obama called Guantanamo unsafe, expensive, and said it lessens cooperation with U.S. allies. He noted that
Congress has legislatively blocked him from closing Guantanamo, but offered no solution to getting around that
hurdle. "I am going to go back at this," said Obama, "I am going to reengage with Congress that this is not in the
best interest of the American people." Obama said Guantanamo might have been seen as necessary after the Sept.
11 attacks, but the president says the time to close the prison for high-value terror suspects who were captured on
foreign soil is now. "This is a lingering problem that is not going to get better," Obama says. "It's going to get
worse." Obama also appeared to defend the Defense Department's decision to force feed the striking prisoners."I
don't want these individuals to die," he said.
Biopower Advantage
Closing Fails
No solvency even after released from Gitmo, people are still reduced to bare life were
cogs in a machine
Colatrella, 11 (Steven, taught at Bard College, the New School and the American University of Rome, Fulbright
scholar, Chair of the Department of Political and Social Sciences at John Cabot University in Rome and President of
the Iowa Sociological Association, Nothing Exceptional: Against Agamben, Journal for Critical Education Policy
Studies, vol.9. no.1, page 107-108, November 2011, Online, http://www.jceps.com/PDFs/09-1-05.pdf, accessed
7/23/13) PE
Finally, Agamben, in his understanding of homo sacer seems to miss the most obvious point imaginable, at least to
anyone familiar with the work of either Karl Marx or Karl Polanyi11, namely, that a human being reduced to bare
life, to the mere physical existence without rights or guarantees, far from being a marginal figure, a canary in a coal
mine, is instead the human condition of the majority of the population under capitalism. Here is where it is clear
why I have stressed the autonomy of the political as a way of understanding the world that is counter-productive: it
takes work to describe humanity reduced to bare life and then fail to see it all around one in the form of the
proletarian majority of every society, North and South. Political deracination is clearly related to economic
deracination, or to use the, in my view clearer Marxian terminology, expropriation and enclosure, or
proletarianization. In what way is Agambens homo sacer any different than the rightless and free proletarian
that has always existed under capitalism? Hasnt it always been allowable to live and let die without remorse those
unable to make a living, keep a job or income, provide for themselves or family members, keep up rent or mortgage
payments, pay for a meal? Shouldnt we see this as violence, as Zizek in his book Violence12 argues, the daily,
systemic economic violence of market relations and the propertylessness of the majority in capitalist society? Isnt
this exactly the non-state of emergency, non-exceptional violence, that kills millions annually, that Agamben, like
Arendt before him, ignores? Further, doesnt his lack of attention to the normal process of proletarianization, of
expropriation and enclosure, lead to his failure to see these on a grand scale with the maximum possible state
violence in the colonial world, in the neocolonial world, in slavery and the slave trade, in the genocide of the Native
Americans?
No solvency too many alt causes to the state of exception anything that expropriates
Colatrella, 11 (Steven, taught at Bard College, the New School and the American University of Rome, Fulbright
scholar, Chair of the Department of Political and Social Sciences at John Cabot University in Rome and President of
the Iowa Sociological Association, Nothing Exceptional: Against Agamben, Journal for Critical Education Policy
Studies, vol.9. no.1, page 110-111, November 2011, Online, http://www.jceps.com/PDFs/09-1-05.pdf, accessed
7/23/13) PE
My argument is that states of exception and the reduction of part or all of the population governed by state power
to bare life are based upon attempts to expropriate all or part of a population from their land, their access to
resources, subsistence and the means of production; or upon the imposition of neoliberal policies accomplishing
analogous acts of primitive accumulation (privatization of resources or public goods, elimination of limits on
exploitation and market forces, freeing of the power of employers over workers, freeing of capital from regulations
or limitations on its actions and movements). The case of Nazi Germany, the paradigmatic case for Agamben and
one of the paradigmatic cases for Arendts study of totalitarianism, far from making the argument for autonomy of
the political, instead supports the argument that political repression is based on economic expropriation and
exploitation, and that rights and liberties, in turn are based on economic democracy, on either widespread or
common ownership of resources, or on economic class organization by workers and the gains made using democracy
to sustain economic conditions.
No spillover solvency Agambens theories dont answer key questions solving just in the
instance of Gitmo doesnt give us tools to solve the harms elsewhere
Colatrella, 11 (Steven, taught at Bard College, the New School and the American University of Rome, Fulbright
scholar, Chair of the Department of Political and Social Sciences at John Cabot University in Rome and President of
the Iowa Sociological Association, Nothing Exceptional: Against Agamben, Journal for Critical Education Policy
Studies, vol.9. no.1, page 102-103, November 2011, Online, http://www.jceps.com/PDFs/09-1-05.pdf, accessed
7/23/13) PE
Agamben therefore seeks to explain the present danger to civil liberties, the risk of special powers being taken
over by governments declaring states of emergency, the increasingly common turn to delegated democracy
through authoritarian methods by only formally elected leaders and the risk of physical repression by state
power even in liberal democratic countries. Despite its insight, however, I think that this way of understanding is
disastrously mistaken. For the test of theories of this sort should be simple and twofold: 1) does the theory tell us
why this is happening when it does and where it does? 2) And does it tell us what to do about it? I think
Agambens analysis fails utterly on both counts and therein lies the danger in its growing influence as a way of
understanding the undoubted rise in political repression and authoritarianism around the world. Part of the appeal of
a theory like Agambens to radical intellectuals is its sophistication. That Agemben is erudite is undoubted, as his
extensive knowledge of arcane facts of Roman legal history indicate. But while he has added dimensions that no less
talented thinker, certainly myself included, could have come up with, originality, despite its undoubted academic
virtues, is not a reason for a theory or explanation to be convincing to others. Rather an explanation of historical or
political phenomena must address the first question I pose: why? Why now and not later or before? Why in this
place and not the other? Why the differences in degree between places or times? Why is this group under
attack and not another one?
different strategic and local dynamics of power in the two kinds of regimes. Clearly the democratic welfare
state is ot only formally but also substantively quite different from totalitarianism . Above all, again, it has
nowhere developed the fateful, radicalizing dynamic that characterized National Socialism (or for that matter
Stalinism), the psychotic logic that leads from economistic population management to mass murder. Again,
there is always the potential for such a discursive regime to generate coercive policies. In those cases in which the regime of
rights does not successfully produce "health," such a system can -and historically does create compulsory pro- grams to enforce it. But
again, there are political and policy potentials and con- straints such as structuring of biopolitics that are very
different from those of National Socialist Germany. Democratic biopolitical regimes require, enable, and
incite a degree of self-direction and participation that is functionally incompatible with authoritarian or
totalitarian structures. And this pursuit of biopolitical ends through a regime of democratic citizenship does appear, historically, to have imposed narrow limits on coercive policies, and to have generated a "1ogic"or imperative'of
increasing liberalization. Despite lim- itations imposed by political context and the slow pace of discursive change, I think this is the
unmistakable message of the really very impressive waves of legi slative and welfare reforms in the 1920s or the 1970s in Germany.90 Of
course it is not yet clear whether this is an irreversible dynamic of such systems. Nevertheless, such regimes are characterized by
sufficient degrees of autonomv, (.and of the potential for its expansion) for sufficient numbers of peo- ple that I think
it
becomes useful to conceive of the mass productive of a strate- gic configuration of power relations that might
fruitfully be analyzed as a condition of "liberty just as much as they are productive of constraint , oppression, or
manipulation. At the very least, totalitarianism cannot be the sole orientation point for our understanding of biopolitics, the only end
point of the logic of social engineering 34-36
incomprehensible without taking into account that there exists a form of power which refrains from killing
but which nevertheless is capable of directing peoples lives . The effectiveness of biopower can be seen lying precisely in that
it refrains and withdraws before every demand of killing, even though these demands would derive from the demand of justice. In biopolitical
societies, according to Foucault, capital punishment could not be maintained except by invoking less the enormity of the crime itself than the
monstrosity of the criminal: "One had the right to kill those who represented a kind of biological danger to others." However, given that the "right
to kill" is precisely a sovereign right, it can be argued that the biopolitical societies analyzed by Foucault were not entirely biopolitical. Perhaps,
there neither has been nor can be a society that is entirely biopolitical. Nevertheless, the fact is that present-dav European societies
have abolished capital punishment. In them, there are no longer exceptions. It is the very right to kill" that has been
called into question. However, it is not called into question because of enlightened moral sentiments, but rather because
of the deplovment of bio-political thinking and practice.
If, as has been suggested, terminology is the properly poetic moment of thought, then terminological choices can
never be neutral. In this sense, the choice of the term state of exception implies a position taken on both the nature of
the phenomenon we seek to investigate and the logic most useful for understanding it. [51]
There is a final criticism to be made about Agambens treatment of the idea of the state of exception. Thus far, we have made a sustained
critical-theoretical investigation into the usefulness and insight of that concept. In this sense, we must agree with Agambens suggestion
that the choice of a term implies a position on the nature of the phenomenon and the logic most useful for
understanding it. The state of exception is, therefore, a way of understanding both the operation of canonical Western political
discourses/structures at their limits and a positioning of contemporary political practices at those limits. As well as capturing the logic of
a political phenomenon, the term state of exception implies a political judgement on contemporary political practices - that they are
exceptional and therefore perhaps bad, wrong, or more likely interesting, revealing and symptomatic. For these same reasons, however,
we find that the usefulness and insight of the concept of the state of exception is undermined by Agambens frequent invocation of the
idea of a permanent state of exception. For the most part, the logical operation the term state of exception is taken to mean a limit
condition, a constitutive threshold that dwells within the city as sovereign potentiality. It is the potential for sovereignty to make itself
actual by withdrawing the protection of the law, abandoning the subject to a state of lawlessness and violence: the sovereign is the one
with respect to whom all men are potentially homines sacri, and homo sacer is the one with respect to whom all men act as sovereigns.
[52] The value of Agambens work resides in a sustained investigation into the political dialectics in
operation at the thresholds of law and politically-qualified life. Yet the analytical and political value of this
very timely logic is undermined by the invocation of a permanent state of exception . For example, in Homo Sacer:
the juridically empty space of the state of exception...has transgressed its spatiotemporal boundaries and now, overflowing outside
them, is starting to coincide with the normal order, in which everything again becomes possible. [53] And similarly in State of
Exception: the state of exception has by now become the rule. [54] These statements do not fit with the complex logic of relationality
that Agamben attributes to sovereignty and the state of exception . To invoke a permanent state of exception is to
collapse the relational dialectic of norm/exception. Although in Homo Sacerthese comments are somewhat throwaway,
in State of Exception Agamben weaves this thesis more fully into his analysis. This is in fact grounded both theoretically and
empirically. As such, Agamben invokes Benjamins eighth thesis from his Theses on the Philosophy of History, which partly reads,
[t]he tradition of the oppressed teaches us that the state of exception in which we live is the rule. We must attain to a concept of
history that accords with this fact. Then we will clearly see that it is our task to bring about the real state of exception, and this will
improve our position in the struggle against fascism. [55] The real state of exception of which Benjamin speaks is some kind of
revolution, post-dialectical epoch, or new messianic age. In historical terms Benjamin is of course right that fascism existed under the
permanent declaration of a state of exception. In addition to this theoretical invocation, Agamben provides an extended note on the
empirical history of the state of exception. In this, he illustrates that the exceptional delegation of powers from parliament to the
executive - establishing executive rule by decree - became normal practice for all European democracies during, and then frequently
after, the First World War. He argues that the passage to executive rule is underway to varying degrees in all the Western democracies,
with parliaments becoming only secondary actors in the legislative process. Even more pertinently, he maintains that the tendency in all
of the Western democracies, is that the declaration of the state of exception has gradually been replaced by an unprecedented
generalization of the paradigm of security as the normal technique of government. [56] While we have no quibble with Agambens
historical details or interpretation, what he is really saying here is that the current norm was once exceptional, and that it developed from
an earlier state of exception or is coming to resemble what was once considered exceptional. It may also be that todays exception will
become tomorrows norm. These are no doubt acute political problems and may well be the case historically, but the consequence
is that the treatise becomes no longer an enquiry into the state of exception, but an enquiry into the
state of the norm. It also implies a political position on the current norm, in that it attempts to label it as exceptional.
CMR Advantage
CMR High
Non-UQ CMR high and stable recent confirmation
Feaver, 7/18 (Peter, American professor of political science and public policy at Duke University. He is a leading
scholar in civil-military relations, Grill, Then Confirm General Dempsey, Foreign Policy, Thursday, July 18, 2013,
Online, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/blog/2195, accessed 7/23/13) PE
From the point of view of American civil-military relations, today's confirmation hearing for Gen. Martin
Dempsey, whom President Barack Obama nominated for a customary second tour as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is the second-most
important hearing of the year. The first was Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel's confirmation hearing earlier in the year. Hagel's hearing was
a train wreck, but he won grudging confirmation. I hope and expect Dempsey's to go much more smoothly, and I hope and
expect him to win an even more enthusiastic affirmative vote. Hagel has performed better than his dismal performance in the confirmation
hearing would have predicted. While I thought at the time that there were better choices for secretary of defense, I also thought that there was not
a strong enough case against him to overcome the presumption that elections have consequences and one of them is that presidents should get the
appointees they want. The confirmation hearings should not be a rubber stamp, and it is always possible that the vetting process was inadequate.
However, the burden of proof should be on those seeking to reject, rather than on the president. The case for Dempsey strikes me as much
stronger than was the case for Hagel, notwithstanding the sharp critiques from my friend and Shadow Government colleague Kori Schake (who
has made her skepticism plain here, here, and here). By all means, I hope the Senate uses the confirmation hearing to raise the tough questions
that deserve to be asked of the administration's national security policy, which, as I argued before, appears to be in free-fall. However, it is
obvious that these problems derive from decisions above Dempsey's pay grade and that those elected and appointed officials responsible at 1600
Pennsylvania Ave. do not appear before confirmation hearings, or any oversight hearings. So this is the moment to ask those questions of an
administration official obliged to answer them. It is also fair game to ask Dempsey the tough questions that belong at his level:
How does he explain the evolution in his advice on Syria? Why does he believe that the United States has established credible coercive
diplomacy vis--vis Iran? What will he recommend if, as seems probable, the sequester will not be fixed? And so on. Dempsey must provide
compelling accounts of the many issues he will manage if he is confirmed to a second tour, ranging from sexual harassment policy to pay and
compensation to rebalancing the force as it returns from war to barracks. But I think he deserves that second tour. I admit to a certain bias here
because Dempsey cares deeply about an issue that I think is vitally important: the health of civil-military relations. (Yes, I
acknowledge another possible conflict of interest: Dempsey is a Duke alum with a graduate degree in English, which speaks well of his breadth
of education. I also taught his son in class.) Dempsey has made educating the force about the do's and don'ts of healthy civil-military relations a
high priority in his first term. In this regard, he was responding to the same warning signs that motivated his predecessor ,
Adm. Mike Mullen, and his earlier boss, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, to likewise make civil-military relations a point of
emphasis. Dempsey has spoken out persuasively about the dangers of senior retired military getting involved in high-stakes partisan politics,
and he has spoken compellingly about the need for better communication between civilian and military institutions. Both civilians and the
military share responsibility for preserving healthy civil-military relations, but it is simply a fact that civilian political leaders
are too distracted to pay the matter adequate attention, and the rest of civilian society is even more inclined to ignore the relationship. If
military leaders do not make it a priority, no one in positions of influence will. Dempsey understands this fundamentally
important fact, and for that reason -- and barring a black-swan surprise revelation in the hearings -- he deserves to be questioned closely and then
confirmed.
make is in his selection of commander. To the chagrin of military officers, then, the division of labor between
civilian officials and military officers in wartime is not fixed. Civilians have long reserved the right to interfere in
military affairs. Lincoln and Ben-Gurion did this to positive effect. Adolf Hitler, among others, did so in such a
way that his meddling hamstrung his generals. What is rigidly fixed in the U.S. system of government, however,
is civilian supremacy over the military. Article I of the U.S. Constitution gives the U.S. Congress the sole right to
declare war, while Article II establishes the president as the commander-in-chief. Remarkably, the civilian
leadership of the United States has never faced a serious threat by the military to usurp powers reserved for
civilian authorities. Only MacArthur mounted a serious challenge -- a series of challenges, really -- to civilian
authorities, and even he was eventually put in his place. Those who fear that civil-military relations in the
United States are in crisis -- and these fears reached an apex in 2009 -- lack both comparative and historical
perspective. The 82nd Airborne Division might not have done the best job in Iraqs al-Anbar province in 2003, but
unlike its French counterparts, it has never threatened to jump onto the Washington mall and overthrow the
government. And despite the fears of many pundits in 2009 that high-profile general officers such as David
Petraeus and Stanley McChrystal harbored secret ambitions to undermine a young Democratic president, both men
now happily and humbly serve as civilians in that same president's administration.
Alt Causes
Cant solve barriers to CMR narrow recruitment
Cohen, 97 (Eliot A., Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced
International Studies, CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS, Orbis, Spring 1997, page 86, Online,
https://www.fpri.org/americavulnerable/06.CivilMilitaryRelations.Cohen.pdf, accessed 7/23/13) PE
The gap between the military and society is exacerbated by the militarys increasing tendency to recruit from
narrower segments of the population. One conference participant reported that some 25 percent of new entrants
into the military now come from military families. Of greater concern, in the view of some, is the increased role
of the military academies as providers of officer candidates. Whereas West Point, Annapolis, and the Air Force
Academy produced only 10 percent of new officers during the Cold War, today they produce roughly onequarter. In the view of many, the services would be happy not only to restrict as much officer intake as possible to
the service academies but to force new officers to serve for extended periods of time. The demands of efficiency, in
particular the desire to reduce training expenses and turnover, lead the military to press for long-term service
contracts.
Cant solve barriers to CMR the military thinks its better than us
Cohen, 97 (Eliot A., Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced
International Studies, CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS, Orbis, Spring 1997, page 86-87, Online,
https://www.fpri.org/americavulnerable/06.CivilMilitaryRelations.Cohen.pdf, accessed 7/23/13) PE
Increasingly, some military leaders also see a growing gap between military and societal values. The U.S.
Marine Corps, perhaps the least civilianized of all the armed services, has changed its basic training programs to
instill values in recruits that it believes American society has failed to provide. Military leaders routinely
remark, with more than a little complacency, that the military has coped with problems that still bedevil the rest
of American society: drug and alcohol abuse, and even in large measure race relations. As sociologist Charles
Moskos has put it, the army is the only institution in which black men routinely give white men orders and no one
thinks twice about it. The armys success on issues involving the sexes is less clear. The military has struggled, with
varying success, to open to women careers that traditionally embodied masculine qualities. Still, that the military
has come to see itself as an organization with better values and more functional social behavior than civil
society marks yet another departure from the past, when the armed forces saw themselves more as a reflection
of society and less as its superior.
Knowledge Inaccurate
We dont have the knowledge to make true predictions of CMR
Angstrom 13
Jan is the Director of Conflict Studies at Uppsala University with a PhD from Kings College, London The
changing norms of civil and military and civil-military relations theory Department of Peace and Conflict Research
at Uppsala University , 30 Apr 2013 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09592318.2013.778014, SM
Despite its obvious importance, there are several shortcomings in our knowledge of how civil and military are
constituted and relate to each other. Far too often relations between civil and military are treated by scholars as
well as policymakers as a technical matter of more or less coordination. Instead, it relates to fundamental
political norms of how societies should be organized. Similarly, the recent literature on security sector reform far
too often treats democratic control of the military as a binary dichotomy (either there is control or there isnt), thus
failing to recognize the great diversity of democratic orders. Furthermore, the study of civil military relations has,
with few exceptions,5 been dominated by case studies of the contemporary US, Great Britain, or after the Cold
War post-Communist states in Eastern Europe.6 The selection of empirical cases is thus quite limited. Surely, if
for example Peter Feaver is right in suggesting that civil military relations has been an issue since Antiquity, we
should be able to include a wider range of cases in our studies.7 Similarly, the way we currently understand the
distinction of civil and military in the West is often taken for granted and assumed to be of universal validity.
The latter tendency is abundant in the burgeoning literature on civil victimization in war. Modern strategic thought,
moreover, seems not only to think of civil and military as important, but also presumes the existence of such
categories and the boundaries between them. What if civil and military can be understood differently? An empirical
strategy to research civil military relations, however, is hampered by the lack of categorizations that cover the
full width of diversity of potential civil military relations. Instead, the typical theories of civil military relations
focus on the more narrow control of the military and devise different strategies and theories for this control.10
Not even huge data gathering programs on democracy such as POLITY include measures for civil military
relations.
Africa Impact D
No risk of great power conflict over Africa
Robert Barrett, PhD student Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, University of Calgary, June 1, 20 05,
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID726162_code327511.pdf?abstractid=726162&mirid=1
Westerners eager to promote democracy must be wary of African politicians who promise democratic reform
without sincere commitment to the process. Offering money to corrupt leaders in exchange for their taking small
steps away from autocracy may in fact be a way of pushing countries into anocracy. As such, world financial
lenders and interventionists who wield leverage and influence must take responsibility in considering the
ramifications of African nations who adopt democracy in order to maintain elite political privileges. The obvious
reason for this, aside from the potential costs in human life should conflict arise from hastily constructed
democratic reforms, is the fact that Western donors, in the face of intrastate war would then be faced with
channeling funds and resources away from democratization efforts and toward conflict intervention based on
issues of human security. This is a problem, as Western nations may be increasingly wary of intervening in
Africa hotspots after experiencing firsthand the unpredictable and unforgiving nature of societal warfare in both
Somalia and Rwanda. On a costbenefit basis, the West continues to be somewhat reluctant to get to get
involved in Africas dirty wars, evidenced by its political hesitation when discussing ongoing sanguinary
grassroots conflicts in Africa. Even as the world apologizes for bearing witness to the Rwandan genocide without
having intervened, the United States, recently using the label genocide in the context of the Sudanese
conflict (in September of 2004), has only proclaimed sanctions against Sudan, while dismissing any
suggestions at actual intervention (Giry, 2005). Part of the problem is that traditional military and
diplomatic approaches at separating combatants and enforcing ceasefires have yielded little in Africa. No
powerful nations want to get embroiled in conflicts they cannot win especially those conflicts in which the
intervening nation has very little interest.
sub-Saharan states. In 1999 alone, the continent was plagued by 16 armed conflicts, seven of which were wars
with more than 1,000 battle-related deaths (Journal of Peace Research, 37:5, 2000, p. 638). In 2000, the situation
continued to deteriorate: renewed heavy fighting between Eritrea and Ethiopia claimed tens of thousands of lives
in the lead-up to a June ceasefire and ultimately the signing of a peace accord in December; continued violence
in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Sierra Leone, Burundi, Angola, Sudan, Uganda, and Nigeria as
well as the outbreak of new violence between Guinea and Liberia, in Zimbabwe, and in the Ivory Coast have
brought new hardship and bloodshed to the continent.
HR Cred Advantage
Alt Cause
Drone Strikes Alt Cause to Human Rights/International Law
Roberts 13(Dan, reporter for the Guardian, 5-24-2013, The Guardian, Obama drone oversight proposal prompts concern over 'kill courts',
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/24/obama-drone-vetting-kill-courts)
Human-rights groups and peace groups opposed to the CIA-operated targeted-killing programme, which remains officially classified,
said the administration had already rejected international law in pursuing its drone operations. "To say they are
rewriting the rulebook implies that there isn't already a rulebook" said Jameel Jaffer, the director of the American Civil Liberties
Union's Center for Democracy. "But what they are already doing is rejecting a rulebook of international law that has been in place
since [the second world war]." He said the news was "frustrating", because it relied on "self-serving sources". The New York Times piece was
written by one of the journalists who first exposed the existence of a White House "kill list", in May. The ACLU is currently involved
in a legal battle with the US government over the legal memo underlying the controversial targeted killing
programme, the basis for drone strikes that have killed American citizens and the process by which
individuals are placed on the kill list. Jaffer said it was impossible to make a judgement about whether the "rulebook" being
discussed, according to the Times, was legal or illegal. "It is frustrating how we are reliant on self-serving leaks" said Jaffer. "We are left with
interpreting shadows cast on the wall. The terms that are being used by these officials are undefined, malleable and without definition. It is
impossible to know whether they are talking about something lawful or unlawful.
Theories of compliance, however, are to some extent divorced from research. Current findings largely
emphasize that treaties work in some cases democracies. But these studies largely ignore the dynamics of
compliance. This is troubling because the human rights regime was created precisely to stop outbreaks of
extreme violence among the worlds worst abusers, and its founders knew this process would take time. Perhaps researchers are
finding that treaties matter most on the margins because studies are not taking the dynamics of compliance seriously. Maybe repressive autocrats
simply need more time to come under the sway of international laws and build capacity than other, more democratic, states.
Imperialism Advantage
Inevitable
US Imperialism Inevitable- History shows
Khodaee 11 (Esfandiar, American Studies at Tehran University, Is imperialism Inevitable for America? July 19,
2011, http://peace.blog.com/2011/07/19/imperialism/)
Imperialism takes root from human nature. In history we see whenever a country had the power to expand its
domination, it never hesitated. Historical examples are: Roman, Persian, Ottoman, Japanese, Chinese, French, Spanish, English, Portugal and Mongol
Empires. Today American Empire is a live example having all the common features of previous Empires. Some
common features of all Empires are: All these Empires have a clear date for emergence and a final date of weakness or even vanishing. For Example the Soviet Union
Empire was born in the beginning of the twentieth century and collapsed in the end of the same century in 1991. All above mentioned Empires
expanded
to the point they could afford, and then declined. The balance of power theory presents a good perception.
It reveals the fact that an imperialist power goes forward to the point that domestic and foreign pressure
stops or remove it. Some of these Imperialist powers like the Soviet Union and America besides their realistic interests in Imperialism,
have also ideological bases. The Soviet Union tried to expand Communism; America is trying to expand Capitalism. Today the United States of America
both in realistic and idealistic point of view has chosen an Imperialistic way of dealing other countries. From the realistic point of view, America needs new markets to
help its economy proceed, also for the sake of security America resorts to intervention in four corners of the world. In idealistic point of view American decision
makers believe Capitalism through democracy is the best way for governing human societies. They sometimes use this ideology as a pretext for their realistic benefits.
They know that any capitalist democracy in any corner of the world meets their interest and they have fewer problems with democracies around the world. For
example Japan, Germany and Italy are no longer a threat to American security. So are India, Pakistan and South Africa. But countries like Iran, Venezuela and Sudan
which are not in the realm of their alleged democracy will never meet their security standards. After the terrorist attack of 11 September 2001, US found concrete
security excuses to militarily intervening Afghanistan and Iraq. Imperialism
will never give up its Imperialism nature, unless the balance of power
blocks it. Today, after the cold war and at the advent of globalization the A twinkle of hope is the multinational treaties between groups of countries. Through
these treaties may be in the future they can defend themselves.
Doesnt Solve
No solvency Guantanamo showcases U.S. imperialism, but closure doesnt overcome alt
causes
Greenberg, 12 (Karen J., historian, professor, and author. She is Director of the Center on National Security at
Fordham University's School of Law, Imagining a world without Guantanamo, January 12, 2012, Online,
Washington Post Opinions, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-01-12/opinions/35438031_1_detaineesguantanamo-bay-indefinite-detention, accessed 7/27/13) PE
Without Guantanamo, there would be no focal point that so readily called to mind the U.S. role in the war on
terror. There would be no one place that encapsulated the errant journey that the nation began in the wake of 9/11,
the startling deviation from law and process, from the self-identity of America as law-abiding, confident and fair.
The absence of Guantanamo this one term that evokes so much would have meant that the United States had
not chosen the easy out. Had there been no Guantanamo, the nation would have had to confront the issues that
continue to haunt us: the ability of the Constitution to deal with 21st-century enemies; the strengths and
weaknesses of our intelligence services; the uncertainty of who is an enemy and who is not. Without Guantanamo,
the countrys leaders would have had to create aboveboard policies that would not have led us into a state of
perpetual limbo, now codified by Congress and supported by the president in the form of indefinite detention and
military detention for foreign terrorism suspects. With no Guantanamo, there would still be much to trouble us:
the war in Iraq and the lies that got us there, the losses in Afghanistan, the overstepping of the security state
into conversations, virtual and otherwise. But there wouldnt be a glaring badge of shame on the United States. Nor
would there be a ready symbol of the countrys willingness to allow national security to trump the rule of law.
Without Guantanamo, our moral compass wouldnt have been so visibly hijacked.
Cant solve protests against Guantanamo are political posturing its a symptom rather
than a cause of imperialism
ONeil, 6 (Brendon, columnist for the Big Issue, a blogger for the Telegraph, and a writer for the Spectator, Editor
of Spiked, Guantanamo Bay and the champagne anti-imperialists, March 10, 2006, Online, http://www.spikedonline.com/newsite/article/246#.UfV6dtJtN2w, accessed 7/28/13) PE
The Camp X-Ray prisons at Guantanamo Bay - where 500 men are being held in legal limbo, still unsure whether
they are prisoners of war, illegal combatants or what - are a common disgrace. They should be shut down,
dismantled, sold for scrap, and their inhabitants set free immediately. More to the point, we should challenge the
idea that these individuals pose a threat to civilisation and everything that America and the West hold dear, and that
they therefore must be locked up indefinitely and even have their toothbrushes sawn in half. That is the beginning
and the end of my political position on Guantanamo Bay. And that is why I wont be signing up any time soon to
the fashionable public campaign against Camp X-Ray. That campaign - whose adherents include[s] everyone from
the Archbishop of Canterbury, to every bicycle-riding liberals favourite bicycle-riding newsreader, Jon Snow, to
the not-especially principled publicity supremo Max Clifford (who reportedly scored high-profile newspaper
interviews for some of the Brits freed from Guantanamo) - is less about getting the prison shut down, and even less
about challenging the war on terror that sustains it, than it is about demonstrating the campaigners own whiter-thanwhite credentials to the watching world. Wondering about the strange goings-on at Guantanamo has become a
kind of pornography for the chattering classes, and chastising Camp X-Ray a shortcut to showing that you
are a good and noble person. It is public protest as narcissistic preening, and anyone interested in challenging
the war on terror should steer well clear of it. Guantanamo Bay is everywhere. Even as post-war Afghanistan
remains a mess and post-war Iraq becomes an ever-more vacuous and violent state, virtually the only big public
debate about Bush and Blairs military shenanigans focuses on Camp X-Ray. That is weird for two reasons. First, we
know what is happening in Afghanistan and Iraq but we are uncertain as to what is happening in Camp X-Ray,
which is a highly secretive and closed-off prison; second, Camp X-Ray is a byproduct of the wars in Afghanistan
and Iraq, a symptom rather than the cause of American and British military interventionism. In some ways, it
is precisely the secretive nature of Camp X-Ray and the fact that it has become a kind of separate entity,
dislocated from its origins in the war on terror, that makes it attractive to the campaigners: it allows them to
indulge a sense of moral righteousness and outrage without having to think too hard about hard facts or the messy
political business of taking a public stand against Western interventionism.
20/news/0602190101_1_guantanamo-bay-prison-camp-fair-minded) SS
The U.S. prison camp for terrorism suspects at Guantanamo Bay should not be closed. It serves a useful
purpose. Besides, there is something unseemly and hypocritical about an international agency populated by egregious
human-rights violators scolding the United States over alleged abuses of human rights, especially when the
allegations come largely from the prisoners themselves. This should not be taken to mean, though, that all is well at Guantanamo. The
place has richly earned a reputation that has harmed America's image in much of the world. The United
States must improve conditions there and treat the prisoners more fairly. Fairness starts with bringing
detainees to trial in a reasonable period of time. Isn't that the American way? The four-year period that has elapsed since many were brought
to Guantanamo already qualifies as unreasonable. The United States should conduct trials not because anti-American operatives at the United Nations say so. It should
do so because it's the right thing to do, and because America
Imperialism Good
American imperialism should be embraced it has been the greatest force for good in the
world
Boot, 2003 (Max, Olin senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, "American Imperialism? No Need to
Run Away from Label," 5-18-2003, www.attacberlin.de/fileadmin/Sommerakademie/Boot_Imperialim_fine.pdf)
The greatest danger is that we won't use all of our power for fear of the ''I'' word -- imperialism. When asked on
April 28 on al-Jazeera whether the United States was ''empire building,'' Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld reacted as if he'd been asked
whether he wears women's underwear. ''We don't seek empires,'' he replied huffily. ''We're not imperialistic. We never have been.'' That's a fine
answer for public consumption. The problem is that it isn't true. The United States has been an empire since at least 1803, when Thomas Jefferson
purchased the Louisiana Territory. Throughout the 19th century, what Jefferson called the ''empire of liberty'' expanded across the continent.
When U.S. power stretched from ''sea to shining sea,'' the American empire moved abroad, acquiring colonies ranging from Puerto Rico and the
Philippines to Hawaii and Alaska. While the formal empire mostly disappeared after World War II, the United States set out on another bout of
imperialism in Germany and Japan. Oh, sorry -- that wasn't imperialism; it was ''occupation.'' But when Americans are running foreign
governments, it's a distinction without a difference. Likewise, recent ''nation-building'' experiments in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo and
Afghanistan (news - web sites) are imperialism under another name. Mind you, this is not meant as a condemnation. The history of
American imperialism is hardly one of unadorned good doing; there have been plenty of shameful episodes,
such as the mistreatment of the Indians. But, on the whole, U.S. imperialism has been the greatest force for good in the
world during the past century. It has defeated the monstrous evils of communism and Nazism and lesser evils
such as the Taliban and Serbian ethnic cleansing. Along the way, it has helped spread liberal institutions to
countries as diverse as South Korea (news - web sites) and Panama. Yet, while generally successful as imperialists, Americans have been loath to
confirm that's what they were doing. That's OK. Given the historical baggage that ''imperialism'' carries, there's no need for the U.S.
government to embrace the term. But it should definitely embrace the practice. That doesn't mean looting Iraq of its natural
resources; nothing could be more destructive of our goal of building a stable government in Baghdad. It means imposing the rule of law, property
rights, free speech and other guarantees, at gunpoint if need be. This will require selecting a new ruler who is committed to pluralism and then
backing him or her to the hilt. Iran and other neighboring states won't hesitate to impose their despotic views on Iraq; we shouldn't hesitate to
impose our democratic views. The indications are mixed as to whether the United States is prepared to embrace its imperial role
unapologetically. Rumsfeld has said that an Iranian-style theocracy ''isn't going to happen,'' and President Bush (news - web sites) has pledged to
keep U.S. troops in Iraq as long as necessary to ''build a peaceful and representative government.'' After allowing a temporary power vacuum to
develop, U.S. troops now are moving aggressively to put down challenges to their authority by, for example, arresting the self-declared ''mayor''
of Baghdad. That's all for the good. But there are also some worrisome signs. Bush asked for only $2.5 billion from Congress for rebuilding Iraq,
even though a study from the Council on Foreign Relations and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy estimates that $25 billion to
$100 billion will be needed. Iraq's oil revenues and contributions from allies won't cover the entire shortfall. The president should be doing more
to prepare the U.S. public and Congress for a costly commitment. Otherwise, Iraqis quickly could become disillusioned about the benefits of
liberation. The cost of our commitment will be measured not only in money but also in troops. While Bush and Rumsfeld have wisely eschewed
any talk of an early ''exit strategy,'' they still seem to think that U.S. forces won't need to stay more than two years. Rumsfeld even denied a report
that the U.S. armed forces are planning to open permanent bases in Iraq. If they're not, they should be. That's the only way to ensure the security
of a nascent democracy in such a rough neighborhood. Does the administration really imagine that Iraq will have turned into Switzerland in two
years' time? Allied rule lasted four years in Germany and seven years in Japan. American troops remain stationed in both places more than 50
years later. That's why these two countries have become paragons of liberal democracy. It is crazy to think that Iraq -- which has less of a
democratic tradition than either Germany or Japan had in 1945 -- could make the leap overnight. The record of nation-building during the past
decade is clear: The United States failed in Somalia and Haiti, where it pulled out troops prematurely. Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan show
more promise because U.S. troops remain stationed there. Afghanistan would be making even more progress if the United States and its allies had
made a bigger commitment to secure the countryside, not just Kabul. If we want Iraq to avoid becoming a Somalia on steroids,
we'd better get used to U.S. troops being deployed there for years, possibly decades, to come. If that raises
hackles about American imperialism, so be it. We're going to be called an empire whatever we do. We might
as well be a successful empire.
application of this critical concept. Nor have many considered the possibility that if
causes of oppression, suffering and struggle for transformation against the quasi-imperial power of many
regional states. I argue that in the global era, this separation has finally become critical. This is for two related reasons. On the one hand,
Western power has moved into new territory, largely uncharted -- and I argue unchartable -- with the critical tools of anti-imperialism. On the
other hand, the politics of empire remain all too real, in classic forms that recall both modern imperialism and earlier empires, in many nonWestern states, and they are revived in many political struggles today. Thus the concept of a 'new imperialism' fails to deal with
both key post-imperial features of Western power and the quasi-imperial character of many non-Western
states. The concept overstates Western power and understates the dangers posed by other, more authoritarian
and imperial centres of power. Politically it identifies the West as the principal enemy of the world's people,
when for many of them there are far more real and dangerous enemies closer to home. I shall return to these political
issues at the end of this paper.
Imperialism is good: the defeat of Nazism and the promotion of democracy are proof.
Boot, 2003 (Max, Olin senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, "American Imperialism? No Need to
Run Away from Label," 5-18-2003, www.attacberlin.de/fileadmin/Sommerakademie/Boot_Imperialim_fine.pdf)
Mind you, this is not meant as a condemnation. The history of American imperialism is hardly one of unadorned good doing; there have been
plenty of shameful episodes, such as the mistreatment of the Indians. But, on the whole , U.S. imperialism has been the greatest
force for good in the world during the past century. It has defeated the monstrous evils of communism and
Nazism and lesser evils such as the Taliban and Serbian ethnic cleansing. Along the way, it has helped spread liberal institutions
to countries as diverse as South Korea (news - web sites) and Panama. Yet, while generally successful as imperialists,
Americans have been loath to confirm that's what they were doing. That's OK. Given the historical baggage that ''imperialism''
carries, there's no need for the U.S. government to embrace the term. But it should definitely embrace the
practice. That doesn't mean looting Iraq of its natural resources; nothing could be more destructive of our goal of building a stable government
in Baghdad. It means imposing the rule of law, property rights, free speech and other guarantees, at gunpoint if
need be. This will require selecting a new ruler who is committed to pluralism and then backing him or her to
the hilt. Iran and other neighboring states won't hesitate to impose their despotic views on Iraq; we shouldn't
hesitate to impose our democratic views.
their cause or not; we need to judge Western power not according to a general assumption of 'new
imperialism' but according to its actual role in relation to the victims. The task for civil society in the West is
not, therefore to oppose Western state policies as a matter of course, la Cold War, but to mobilise solidarity with
democratic oppositions and repressed peoples, against authoritarian, quasi-imperial states. It is to demand more
effective global political, legal and military institutions that genuinely and consistently defend the interests of the most
threatened groups. It is to grasp the contradictions among and within Western elites, conditionally allying themselves with
internationalising elements in global institutions and Western governments, against nationalist and reactionary elements. The arrival in power of
George Bush II makes this discrimination all the more urgent. In the long run, we
US imperialism is necessary to prevent war and genocide - their criticism thwarts the more
important task of humanizing the imperial order from within
David Rieff, Volume XVI, No2, SUMMER 1999. A New Age of Liberal Imperialism?
But the implications of not doing anything are equally clear. Those who fear American power are-this is absolutely certaincondemning other people to death. Had the U.S. armed forces not set up the air bridge to eastern Zaire in the
wake of the Rwandan genocide, hundreds of thousands of people would have perished, rather than the tens of
thousands who did die. This does not excuse the Clinton administration for failing to act to stop the genocide militarily; but it is a fact.
And analogous situations were found in Bosnia and even, for all its failings, in the operation in Somalia. < CONTINUED.> Is thisproposal
tantamount-to calling for decolonization of part of the world? Would such a system make the United States even more powerful than it is already?
Clearly it is, and clearly it would. But what are the alternatives? Kosovo demonstrates how little stomach the United States has for the kind of
military action mat its moral ambitions impel it to undertake. And there will be many more Kosovos in the coming decades.
With the victory of capitalism nearly absolute, the choice is not between systems but about what kind of capitalist system we are going to have
and what kind of world order that system requires. However controversial it may be to say this our choice at the millennium seems to
boil down to imperialism or barbarism. Half-measures of the type we have seen in various humanitarian interventions and in Kosovo
represent the worst of both worlds. Better to grasp the nettle and accept that liberal imperialism may be the best we
are going to do in these callous and sentimental times. Indeed, the real task for people who reject both realism
and the Utopian nihilism of a left that would prefer to see genocide in Bosnia and the mass deportation of the Kosovars
rather than strengthen, however marginally, the hegemony of the United States, is to trv to humanize this new
imperial order-assuming it can come into being-and to curb the excesses that it will doubtless produce. The alternative is not
liberation, or the triumph of some global consensus of conscience, but to paraphrase Che Guevara, one, two, three, many
Kosovos.
Alt Cause
Impact Non-UniqueUS will always refuse to comply with IL
Global Policy Forum 12 (an independent publication that monitors UN and global political activity, US
Opposition to the International Criminal Court, Global Policy Forum, http://www.globalpolicy.org/us-un-andinternational-law-8-24/us-opposition-to-the-icc-8-29.html)
The United States government has consistently opposed an international court that could hold US military
and political leaders to a uniform global standard of justice. The Clinton administration participated actively
in negotiations towards the International Criminal Court treaty, seeking Security Council screening of cases. If
adopted, this would have enabled the US to veto any dockets it opposed. When other countries refused to agree
to such an unequal standard of justice, the US campaigned to weaken and undermine the court. The Bush
administration, coming into office in 2001 as the Court neared implementation, adopted an extremely active
opposition. Washington began to negotiate bilateral agreements with other countries, insuring immunity of US
nationals from prosecution by the Court. As leverage, Washington threatened termination of economic aid,
withdrawal of military assistance, and other painful measures. The Obama administration has so far made
greater efforts to engage with the Court. It is participating with the Court's governing bodies and it is providing
support for the Court's ongoing prosecutions. Washington, however, has no intention to join the ICC, due to its
concern about possible charges against US nationals.
be on moving forward. Yet, transformative leaders in places as diverse as Latin America, South Africa, and
Eastern Europe have realized that change would not be possible without first looking back and taking steps
toward accountability. In many instances, these countries did so with the encouragement and support of the United
States.
US Not Key
Other countries solve the impactUS not key
Benvenisti 8 Professor of Law, Tel Aviv University (Eval, Reclaiming Democracy: The Strategic Uses Of
Foreign And International Law By National Courts, 102 A.J.I.L. 241, http://law.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?
article=1061&context=taulwps)
It wasnt so long ago that the overwhelming majority of courts in democratic countries shared a reluctance to refer to foreign and international
law. These courts conformed to a policy of avoiding any application of foreign sources of law that would clash with the position of their domestic
governments. For many jurists, recourse to foreign and international law is inappropriate.1 But even the supporters of the reference to external
sources of law share the thus-unexplored assumption that reliance on foreign and international law is inevitably in tension with the value of
national sovereignty. Hence the scholarly debate is framed along the lines of the well-known broader debate on the counter-majoritarian
difficulty.2 This Article questions this assumption of tension. It argues that for courts in most democratic countries even if not
for U.S. courts at present referring to foreign and international law has become an effective instrument for
empowering the domestic democratic processes by shielding them from external economic, political and even
legal pressures. Citing international law, therefore, actually bolsters domestic democratic processes and reclaims national sovereignty from
the diverse forces of globalization. Stated differently, most national courts, seeking to maintain the vitality of their national political
institutions and to safeguard their own domestic status vis--vis the political branches, cannot afford to ignore foreign and
international law. In recent years, courts in several democracies have begun to engage quite seriously in the
interpretation and application of international law and to heed the constitutional jurisprudence of other
national courts.
brought to bear by interest groups and powerful foreign governments, and to insulate the national courts from
intergovernmental pressures. For this strategy to succeed, courts need to forge a united judicial front, which
entails coordinating their policies with equally positioned courts in other countries by developing common
communication tools consisting of international law and comparative constitutional law. The analysis also
explains why the U.S. Supreme Court, which does not need to protect the domestic political or judicial
processes from external pressure, has still not joined this collective effort. 3 On the basis of this insight into
the driving force behind reliance on foreign law, the article proposes another outlook for assessing the
legitimacy of national courts' resort to foreign and international legal sources. It asserts that recourse to these
sources is perfectly legitimate from a democratic theory perspective, as it aims at reclaiming democracy from
the debilitating grip of globalization.
Relations Advantage
GITMO Key
Turn Guantanamo Base is a necessary jumping off point for relations
Iglesias 12
Commander Carlos of the United States Navy The U.S. Army War College is accredited by the Commission on
Higher Education of the Middle States Association of Colleges and Schools United States Security Policy Implications of a Post-Fidel Cuba US Army War College 2012
Going forward, there are several areas of ongoing security cooperation between the neighboring countries that
show promise. The first of these has been recurring meetings between military officers from both countries.
Initiated by the commander of the Guantanamo base, General John Sheehan, the military-to-military fence-line
talks initially provided a venue for both sides to workout practical common concerns surrounding the base.
64 Since his retirement, General Sheehan and other retired U.S. military officers expanded the bilateral
cooperation to include visits to Havana for discussions on migration, drug trafficking, operating procedures
at the U.S. Naval Base Guantnamo Bay, U.S. military maneuvers, and other regular threats. The talks reached
a surprising high-water mark in 2002 when Cuban military officers advocated for and Ral Castro pronounced that
any Al Qaeda detainees that escaped into Cuba would be returned to the base. 65 In the absence of any formal
diplomatic ties between the countries, these cordial mil-to-mil engagements have proven a form of quiet
diplomacy and continue to lay the groundwork for future cooperation and more peaceful transitions in the
U.S.-Cuban relations.
Alt Causes
Multiple barriers to US-Cuban relations now Dry Foot, Alan Gross, Terrorism List, Arms
Shipment
Riechmann 07/17
Deb The Associated Press won the Merriman Smith Award 06, 13.Cuba And U.S. Discuss Migration Issues To
Better Relations AP 13 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/18/us-cuba-migration_n_3617242.html
WASHINGTON -- Migration issues headlined talks on Wednesday between the U.S. and Cuba, yet long-standing
disputes threaten efforts to thaw relations between the Cold War enemies. In the one-day talks, Cuba repeated
its opposition to the United States' so-called wet-foot, dry-foot policy in which Cuban refugees reaching
American soil are allowed to stay while those stopped at sea are sent home. Cuba says the policy urges its citizens to
try to flee the island. "Alien smuggling could not be eradicated nor a legal, safe and orderly migration between the
two countries could be achieved as long as the wet-foot, dry-foot policy and the Cuban Adjustment Act, which
encourage illegal migration and irregular entries of Cuban citizens into the United States, remain in force," the
delegation said in a statement. The act lets islanders who reach the United States stay and fast-tracks them for
residency. American officials reiterated their call for the immediate release of a US Agency for International
Development worker, Alan Gross, imprisoned in Cuba since Dec. 3, 2009. Gross was working on a USAID
democracy-building program when he was arrested. Washington has said repeatedly that no major improvement
in relations can occur until he is released. The migration talks were announced last month after Havana and
Washington wrapped up separate negotiations aimed at restarting direct mail service, which has been suspended
since 1963. Discussions about migration and mail along with the relaxation of travel and remittance rules for
Cuban Americans appeared to signal a thaw in chilly relations. But two recent events Cuba's backing of
National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden's bid for asylum and the interception of weapons hidden on a
ship that had sailed out of Cuba bound for North Korea now pose new setbacks to warming relations. Earlier
this month, Cuban President Raul Castro threw his support behind other Latin American governments willing to give
asylum to Snowden, who has since sought temporary asylum in Russia. Castro made no reference as to whether
Cuba itself would offer him refuge or safe passage. Snowden's simplest route to Latin America might be one of five
direct flights that Russian carrier Aeroflot operates to Havana each week. From there Snowden could fly to
Venezuela, Bolivia or Nicaragua, all possible destinations for him. On Tuesday Panamanian authorities seized a
14,000-ton ship with a cargo of missiles and other arms hidden under sacks of sugar. Cuba claimed the military
equipment was obsolete weaponry from the mid-20th century that it was sending to North Korea for repair. The
incident underscored concerns about Cuba's relationship with North Korea, which is in a standoff with the U.S. and
its allies for continuing to develop nuclear weapons. Cuba's delegation to the migration talks said the discussion
took place in a "climate of respect" and said it was willing to hold more exchanges in the future. The delegation said
Cuba used the meeting to announce that the government of Cuba had ratified international protocols on migrant
smuggling and human trafficking. Marie Harf, deputy spokeswoman at the State Department, said the discussion
focused on the implementation of the 1994 and 1995 U.S.-Cuba migration accords. The talks are intended to
monitor adherence to a 16-year-old agreement under which the U.S. issues 20,000 visas to Cubans each year.
Wednesday marked the first time since January 2011 that the periodic talks have been held. "The U.S. delegation
highlighted areas of successful cooperation in migration, including advances in aviation safety and visa processing,
while also identifying actions needed to ensure that the goals of the accords are fully met, especially those having to
do with safeguarding the lives of intending immigrants," Harf said. Cuba, however, remains on the U.S. list of
state sponsors of terrorism, another sticking point in the migration talks. Havana denies any links to terrorism
and contends its inclusion on the list is a political vendetta. Sen. Robert Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, called the shipment of weapons a "grave violation" of international treaties and called on
the Obama administration to submit the case to the U.N. Security Council for review. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a
Republican from Florida who is staunchly opposed to the Raul Castro government, urged the State Department to
call for U.N. Sanctions Committee inspectors to go to Panama and investigate whether North Korea and Cuba
have violated U.N. resolutions
Soft power since the turn of the century, it remains overall fairly strong. Nye contends that much
of Americas soft power is produced by civil society everything from universities and foundations to
Hollywood and pop culture not from the government. While this is arguably true, I would not remove government as a major variable in
the soft power equation. Much of what Hollywood, academia, and civil society are able to do is enabled directly by our
principles of government. Certainly, what can only be described as dysfunction in the American government right now
especially in regards to the fiscal situationhas an eroding effect on U.S. soft power. Though internal bickering may result in an inability to pass a
budget, no amount of cooperation gives Congress the ability pass a measure to requisition more soft power, or contract a company to design it. But it can pass
legislation that frees it to grow on its own. Rather than trying to use more soft power, Russia and China must first act to earn it. Moral leadership, technological
leadership, financial leadership, and foreign policy leadership and setting standards for individual rights are all factors that can help to increase soft power. In the case
of Russia and China, making more deliberate efforts to resolve issues on the international scene could make a difference. Russia should distance itself from its support
of the Assad regime in Syria. China should pursue diplomacy to resolve disputes in the South China Sea. Both countries should work to increase freedom of the
individual within their borders. Thats how you increase your soft power. For America,
only way America risks losing its soft power edge is by pursuing negative actions and
neglecting the very things that make it so strong.
compared with 50% for China. Globally, people are more likely to consider the U.S. a partner to their country than to see
China in this way, although relatively few think of either nation as an enemy. America is also seen as somewhat more willing than
China to consider other countries interests. Still, both of these world powers are widely viewed as acting unilaterally in international affairs. And
the military power of both nations worries many. Chinas growing military strength is viewed with trepidation in neighboring Japan, South Korea, Australia and the
Philippines. Meanwhile, the Obama administrations use of drone strikes faces broad opposition half or more in 31 of 39 countries disapprove of U.S. drone attacks
against extremist groups.
Respecting individual liberty remains the strong suit of Americas image. Even in many nations
where opposition to American foreign policy is widespread and overall ratings for the U.S. are low, majorities or
pluralities believe individual rights are respected in the U.S. Across the nations surveyed, a median of 70% say the
American government respects the personal freedoms of its people. In contrast, a median of only 36% say this about China.
Balance of Power51Of course, attitudes toward the U.S. and China vary considerably across regions and countries. In Europe, the U.S. gets
mostly positive ratings. During the presidency of George W. Bush, anti-Americanism was common throughout much of Europe , but President
Barack Obama has been consistently popular among Europeans, and since he took office in 2009, Obamas
popularity has given Americas image a significant boost in the region. Currently, more than six-in-ten in Italy,
Poland, France and Spain have a favorable opinion of the U.S. European perceptions of China are much less positive among the
eight European Union nations polled, Greece is the only one in which a majority expresses a favorable view of China. Moreover, ratings for
China have declined significantly over the last two years in a number of EU countries, including Britain, France, Poland and Spain. As has been
the case in recent years, Americas image is the most negative in parts of the Muslim world, especially Pakistan (11% favorable), Jordan (14%),
Egypt (16%), and the Palestinian territories (16%). Only 21% of Turks see the U.S. positively, although this is actually a slight improvement from
last years 15%. But the Muslim world is hardly monolithic, and America receives largely positive ratings in predominantly
Muslim nations such as Senegal in West Africa and Indonesia and Malaysia in Southeast Asia. Elsewhere in the
Asia/Pacific region, the U.S. receives particularly favorable reviews in the Philippines, South Korea and Japan, and
a majority or plurality in all three countries say it is more important to have strong ties with the U.S. than with
China.
PATRIOT Act was quickly reauthorized by March 2006. The Bush administration did announce the end of
warrantless wiretapping in 2007, and he moved the program under jurisdiction of the FISA court , a panel of
Supreme Court-appointed judges who approve domestic surveillance requests. To call the FISA court a rubber
stamp is an understatement. This year, it has rejected a grand total of 11 warrant requests out of--wait for it-33,996 applications since the Carter administration. The PATRIOT Act's reauthorization wouldn't come up again
until 2009. By then, public uproar over warrantless wiretapping had long since receded, and the year's debate played
out as a relatively quite inside-baseball scuffle between civil liberties groups and the Hill. When the law came up for
its next presidential signature in 2011, it was done quietly by autopen--a device that imitates Obama's John
Hancock--from France. Shifting attitudes and quiet reauthorization flies in the face of the standard the president has
set for himself. In a 2009 speech at the National Archives, Obama emphasized the importance of the consent of the
governed in security affairs, "I believe with every fiber of my being that in the long run we cannot keep this country
safe unless we enlist the power of our most fundamental values... My administration will make all information
available to the American people so that they can make informed judgments and hold us accountable." The
president's inability to live up to this ideal is particularly jarring as he defends PRISM. Following the leaks,
he's said he is pushing the intelligence community to release what it can, and rightly insists that the NSA is not
listening in on Americans' phone calls. Those are helpful steps, but should have been raised during the National
Archives speech just months into his administration, not six months into his second term. Director of National
Intelligence James Clapper continues to argue that disclosure of collection methods will give America's enemies a
"'playbook' to avoid detection." That's thin gruel. First, America's enemies are already aware of the NSA's extensive
electronic surveillance capabilities. That's why Osama Bin Laden and deceased al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab
al Zarqawi used a complex network of couriers rather than electronic communications. It's typical operational
security of truly dangerous operatives. Second, Obama stated as recently as late May that the threat from al Qaeda's
core operatives has decreased significantly, shifting to less deadly cells scattered throughout the Middle East and
North Africa. The lack of public debate, shifting attitudes towards civil liberties, insufficient disclosure, and a
decreasing terrorist threat demands that collecting Americans' phone and Internet records must meet the absolute
highest bar of public consent. It's a test the Obama administration is failing. This brings us back to Harry Truman
and Jim Crow. Even though PRISM is technically legal, the lack of recent public debate and support for
aggressive domestic collection is hurting America's soft power. The evidence is rolling in. The China Daily, an
English-language mouthpiece for the Communist Party, is having a field day, pointing out America's
hypocrisy as the Soviet Union did with Jim Crow. Chinese dissident artist Ai Wei Wei made the link explicitly,
saying "In the Soviet Union before, in China today, and even in the U.S., officials always think what they do is
necessary... but the lesson that people should learn from history is the need to limit state power." Even
America's allies are uneasy, at best. German Chancellor Angela Merkel grew up in the East German police state
and expressed diplomatic "surprise" at the NSA's activities. She vowed to raise the issue with Obama at this week's
G8 meetings. The Italian data protection commissioner said the program would "not be legal" in his country. British
Foreign Minister William Hague came under fire in Parliament for his government's participation. If
Americans supported these programs, our adversaries and allies would have no argument. As it is, the next time the
United States asks others for help in tracking terrorists, it's more likely than not that they will question
Washington's motives.
drone strikes are infuriating the more moderate and liberal segments of Pakistani society
those who have traditionally been more sympathetic toward the United States
What is getting overlooked in the debate is that
What bothers this group about U.S. drone strikes, more than the attack on Pakistans sovereignty, is the
perceived American hypocrisy toward the importance of Pakistani lives and deaths.
coverage of a recent report on drone
strikes in Pakistan by researchers at NYU and Stanford law schools, which recounts the daily terror facing
those who live in areas where drones strike, gained wide circulation in Pakistan.
it bothers this liberal,
educated group of Pakistanis that the U.S. government does not release its own data on drone strikes.
Why does anger against
America from this group of liberal, educated Pakistanis matter?
These people
in the U.S.
December, a piece in the U.K. newspaper The Guardian titled In the U.S., mass child killings are tragedies. In Pakistan, mere bug splats went viral among educated Pakistanis. In addition,
Few cared to note that this report had been written by an advocacy group and
that some of its statistics were suspect. While the New America Foundation, the Long War Journal, and the London Bureau of Investigative Journalism all compile statistics on drone strikes, the numbers differ, and
acknowledgments on this issue was in a 2012 speech by John Brennan when he stated that there were barely any civilian deaths as a consequence of these strikes. This struck many as implausible, further angering Pakistanis.
After all, it is highly unlikely that any of these people will turn radical.
matter because they form the heart of an active civil society in Pakistan, which the U.S. counts on to serve as
a counterweight to the radical segments of Pakistani society. They work in the Pakistani government, media
and business sectors, and drone strikes are driving these people toward a constant distrust of the U.S. and
hardening their attitudes against America. It undermines all the positive work the United States is doing in
Pakistan, all the aid dollars it spends there, and drastically undercuts U.S. soft power in the region.
.
this group of Pakistanis
buys into the only narrative out there
that drone strikes are callously undertaken without any regard for civilian casualties.
hearts and minds, it will lose the battle for Pakistan Where does
. According to
of Pakistanis with some knowledge about drone strikes, 95 percent think that
drones are a bad or very bad thing.
say they have heard about drone strikes. Also according to the Pew 2011 poll,
those
In addition, 69 percent of these respondents disagree that drone strikes are necessary to defend Pakistan from extremist groups, and 91 percent agree with the statement that they kill too many
innocent people.
U.S. soft power low now- Presidential opinions, Drone strikes and anti-terror efforts prove
Pew 12 (The Pew Research Centers Global Attitudes Project conducts public opinion surveys around the world on a broad
array of subjects ranging from peoples assessments of their own lives to their views about the current state of the world and
important issues of the day. Over 330,000 interviews in 60 countries have been conducted as part of the projects work. Global
Opinion of Obama Slips, International Policies Faulted http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/06/13/global-opinion-of-obama-slipsinternational-policies-faulted/) SJH
Global approval of President Barack Obamas policies has declined significantly since he first took office, while
overall confidence in him and attitudes toward the U.S. have slipped modestly as a consequence. Europeans and Japanese remain largely
confident in Obama, albeit somewhat less so than in 2009, while Muslim publics remain largely critical. A similar pattern characterizes overall ratings for the U.S. in
the EU and Japan, views are still positive, but the
U.S. remains unpopular in nations such as Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan.
in the American president has declined by 24
percentage points and approval of his policies has fallen 30 points. Mexicans have also soured on his policies, and many fewer express
Meanwhile, support for Obama has waned significantly in China. Since 2009, confidence
confidence in him today. The Obama era has coincided with major changes in international perceptions of American power especially U.S. economic power. The
global financial crisis and the steady rise of China have led many to declare China the worlds economic leader, and this trend is especially strong among some of
Americas major European allies. Today, solid majorities in Germany (62%), Britain (58%), France (57%) and Spain (57%) name China as the worlds top economic
power. Even though many think American economic clout is in relative decline, publics around the world continue to worry about how the U.S. uses its power in
particular its military power in international affairs.
There remains a widespread perception that the U.S. acts unilaterally and does
not consider the interests of other countries. In predominantly Muslim nations, American anti-terrorism efforts are
still widely unpopular. And in nearly all countries, there is considerable opposition to a major component of the
Obama administrations anti-terrorism policy: drone strikes. In 17 of 20 countries, more than half disapprove of U.S.
drone attacks targeting extremist leaders and groups in nations such as Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia.
The way America flexes it economic muscle around the world is changing dramaticallyand not necessarily for the
better. In 1997, facing a wave of sovereign debt defaults, the International Monetary Fund asked its member states to pledge lines of credit to support Fund rescue
efforts. The United States and other nations did as asked. In 2009, the United States responded again to a call for expanded credit lines. When the Fund sought yet
another expansion of these credit lines last April, 39 countries, including China, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Saudi Arabia, stepped up. Even cash-strapped Italy
and Spain pledged support. But the United States was conspicuously absent. A pledge from the United States requires congressional authorization. In the midst of last
spring's contentious debate over U.S. government deficits and debts, support for an international body was a political nonstarter. Where the United States had
previously demonstrated international leadership, other countriessome of them America's rivals for international influencenow make the running. This is a small
example of what may be a troubling trend:
America's fiscal predicament and the seeming inability of its political system to
resolve these matters may be taking a toll on the instruments of U.S. soft power and on the country's ability to
shape international developments in ways that serve American interests. The most potent instrument of U.S. soft
power is probably the simple size of the U.S. economy. As the biggest economy in the world, America has a lot to
say about how the world works. But the economics profession is beginning to understand that high levels of public debt can slow economic growth,
especially when gross general government debt rises above 85 or 90 percent of GDP.The United States crossed that threshold in 2009, and the
negative effects are probably mostly out in the future. These will come at a bad time. The U.S. share of global
economic output has been falling since 1999by nearly 5 percentage points as of 2011. As America's GDP share
declined, so did its share of world trade, which may reduce U.S. influence in setting the rules for international
trade.And it's not just the debt itself that may be slowing GDP growth. Economists at Stanford and the University of Chicago have
demonstrated that uncertainty about economic policyon the rise as a result of political squabbling over U.S. fiscal policytypically foreshadows slower economic
growth.
modernization. Liberal democracy, as they portray it, is full of corruption, sex, and violence-an impression
reinforced by American movies and television and often exacerbated by the extreme statements of some
especially virulent Christian preachers in the United States. Nonetheless, the situation is not hopeless. Although
modernization and American values can be disruptive, they also bring education, jobs, better health care, and a range of new opportunities.
Indeed, polls show that much of the Middle East craves the benefits of trade, globalization, and improved communications. American technology
is widely admired, and American culture is often more attractive than U .S. policies. Given such widespread (albeit ambivalent) moderate views,
there is still a chance of isolating the extremists. Democracy, however, cannot be imposed by force. The outcome in Iraq will be of
crucial importance, but success will also depend on policies that open regional economies, reduce bureaucratic
controls, speed economic growth, improve educational systems, and encourage the types of gradual political
changes currently taking place in small countries such as Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and Morocco. The
development of intellectuals, social groups ,and, eventually, countries that show that liberal democracy is not
inconsistent with Muslim culture will have a beneficial effect like that of Japan and South Korea, which showed that
democracy could coexist with indigenous Asian values. But this demonstration effect will take time-and the skillful
deployment of soft-power resources by the United States in concert with other democracies, nongovernmental
organizations, and the United Nations.
power does not necessarily increase the world's love for America. It is still power,
and it can still make enemies. America's soft power isn't just pop and schlock; its cultural clout is both high
and low. It is grunge and Google, Madonna and MoMA, Hollywood and Harvard. If two-thirds of the movie marquees carry an American title in Europe
(even in France), dominance is even greater when it comes to translated books. The figure for Germany in 2003 was 419 versus 3,732; that is, for every German book
translated into English, nine English-language books were translated into German. It used to be the other way around. A hundred years ago, Humboldt University in
Berlin was the model for the rest of the world. Tokyo, Johns Hopkins, Stanford and the University of Chicago were founded in conscious imitation of the German
university and its novel fusion of teaching and research. Today Europe's universities have lost their luster, and as they talk reform, they talk American. Indeed,
America is one huge global "demonstration effect," as the sociologists call it. The Soviet Union's cultural presence in Prague, Budapest and Warsaw vanished into thin
air the moment the last Russian soldier departed. American
them. The makers of the movie "Shrek 2" had placed large bags of green Shrek ears along the Croisette, the main drag along the beach. As the demonstrators scattered,
many of them put on free Shrek ears. "They were attracted," noted an observer in this magazine, "by the ears' goofiness and sheer recognizability." And so the
prohibits on pain of penalty the use of English words make that D.J. into a disque-tourneur. In 1993, the French coaxed the European Union into adding a "cultural
exception" clause to its commercial treaties exempting cultural products, high or low, from normal free-trade rules. Other European nations impose informal quotas on
American TV fare[]PG2There
is a moral in this tale of two critics: the curse of soft power. In the affairs of nations,
too much hard power ends up breeding not submission but resistance. Likewise, great soft power does not bend
hearts; it twists minds in resentment and rage. And the target of Europe's cultural guardians is not just America, the Great Seductress. It is
also all those "little people," a million in all, many of whom showed up in the wee hours to snag an admissions ticket to MoMA's Berlin exhibit. By yielding to
America-the-beguiling, they committed cultural treason and worse: they ignored the stern verdict of their own priesthood. So America's
soft power is
raised exaggerated hopes about the pay-off from engagement and diplomacy. In the coming months it will
become increasingly obvious that soft power also has its limits.
Solvency
GITMO Safest
GITMO most secure place for detainees, if shut down detainees moved to Illinois-threatens
US safety
Bellinger et. Al 10 (John B. Bellinger III, Adjunct Senior Fellow for International and National Security Law,
CFR; former legal adviser to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice Shayana Kadidal, Senior Managing Attorney,
Guantanamo Global Justice Initiative, Center for Constitutional Rights Clifford D. May, President, Foundation for
Defense of Democracies William Yeomans, Fellow in Law and Government, Washington College of Law, American
University; former Chief Counsel to Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Senate Judiciary Committee, Should
Guantanamo Bay Be Closed?, Council on Foreign Relations, January 21, 2010, http://www.cfr.org/humanrights/should-guantanamo-bay-closed/p21247). SS
On January 22, 2009, President Obama ordered the controversial prison camp at Guantanamo Bay closed within a year. But much has changed since the president set this self-imposed deadline.
the Obama administration proposed moving some of the remaining Guantanamo inmates to a rural
state prison in Illinois. Earlier this month, the president reiterated his vow to close the camp, despite ordering a suspension of transfers to Yemen following evidence that the
In December,
suspect in the Christmas Day airliner bombing plot received al-Qaeda training there. Roughly ninety of the remaining 198 prisoners are Yemeni nationals. Now, as Obama's twelve-month
milestone comes due, legal experts are refining their arguments on the future of Guantanamo Bay. Clifford May, president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argues that 2009
changed everything,
CFR Adjunct Fellow John B.
Bellinger III counters that the prison remains a stain on U.S. values and must be closed. Constitutional Rights attorney Shayana Kadidal writes that refusing to release men who have already been
cleared "is absolutely unconscionable." And William Yeomans, a former legal adviser to the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy, suggests not only should Guantanamo be shuttered, it should be
converted into a "base for Haitian relief and development." -- Greg Bruno, Staff Writer, CFR.org John B. Bellinger III, Adjunct Senior Fellow for International and National Security Law, CFR;
former legal adviser to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice President Obama has not only missed his self-imposed one-year deadline to close Guantanamo but will likely not be able to shutter
the prison in 2010, and possibly not even during the next three years. Politically gun-shy Democratic majorities are unlikely to vote to move the Guantanamo detainees into the United States
Then why close the prison? On balance, Guantanamo does the American people more harm than good. It has come to symbolize abuse of Muslim prisoners and serves as a powerful recruiting
tool for al-Qaeda. It also undermines vital counterterrorism cooperation from our Western allies, who view the prison as inconsistent with their own and U.S. values. It has proved impossible to
shake these unfair perceptions. It is unlikely that the United States will want to keep Guantanamo open for another fifty to sixty years (even if it holds some detainees that long), and President
Obama should instead continue to press Congress and our allies to help close it in an orderly way. Shayana Kadidal, Senior Managing Attorney, Guantanamo Global Justice Initiative, Center for
Constitutional Rights Both presidential candidates in 2008 promised to close Guantanamo. They did so because, as President Obama has repeatedly reaffirmed, doing so will make our nation
safer. As former Navy General Counsel Alberto Mora testified to the Senate, "the first and second [leading] causes of U.S. combat deaths in Iraq--as judged by their effectiveness in recruiting
insurgent fighters into combat--are, respectively, the symbols of Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo." None of that changed with the attempted bombing of Flight 253. The Nigerian student bomber had
allegedly trained in Yemen, supposedly with a group that included two released Saudi Guantanamo detainees. But the Saudis had been released by the Bush administration, not by court order or
after the sort of cautious, formal assessment that President Obama's Inter-Agency Task Force is undertaking now, but based purely on political and diplomatic expediency. Opportunistic calls to
keep Guantanamo open into its ninth year (or simply move it onshore) will do nothing to make America safer. One of them had already turned himself in months ago, and told the BBC from
custody that he joined the group because of horrific abuse he suffered at Bagram and Guantanamo. Perhaps the Nigerian student--by all accounts from a secular, educated, well-off family--was
motivated by these stories as well. Ironically, the intelligence agencies' failure to follow up specific leads that could have averted the Christmas bombing has led to calls for more of the same
counterproductive policies--assigning guilt and suspicion by religion and nationality--that will ensure that foreigners perceive the United States as their enemy and that good leads will be buried
in a haystack of bad leads generated by over-broad profiling. Guantanamo was filled by just such failed policies. Most of the detainees were not captured by our military on any battlefield, but
seized in broad profiling sweeps and sold to the United States in exchange for substantial bounties. The vast majority should never have been detained in the first place. To refuse to release men
who have already been cleared by the task force or the courts is absolutely unconscionable. Opportunistic calls to keep Guantanamo open into its ninth year (or simply move it onshore) will do
nothing to make America safer. Clifford D. May, President, Foundation for Defense of Democracies No doubt, al-Qaeda does utilize Guantanamo as a recruiting tool. However, al-Qaeda was
recruiting terrorists long before there was a Gitmo--the attacks of 9/11/01 represent only the most lethal example. More to the point: Whatever public diplomacy advantage may be achieved by
closing the facility would be offset by the damage done to national security. Of the 198 detainees remaining at Guantanamo, 91 are from Yemen, where al-Qaeda has been active, not least training
terrorists to blow up American passenger jets. President Obama has rightly decided not to send additional detainees from Gitmo to Yemen. Where else can they go? Not to any country where they
might face summary execution or torture. And none of our Democratic allies are eager to have these individuals arrive on their shores. President Obama cannot close Guantanamo anytime soon.
He should acknowledge that reality. The option of bringing them to the United States also is unappealing. For one, they would immediately be granted the same constitutional rights as any
American citizen. For another, setting up a new facility for them would be costly, not to mention a waste of the investment made at Gitmo. Indeed, if anyone wants to bet that Congress, in an
election year, will appropriate funds to bring terrorists to America, my money is on the table. In other words, President Obama cannot close Guantanamo anytime soon. He should acknowledge
that reality. He should explain that his top priority is to protect American citizens. He should add that, under current management, Guantanamo is superior to any comparable facility anywhere in
Its primary purpose is to keep enemy combatants off the battlefield. It achieves that--while providing
healthy food, superb medical care, and clean housing to individuals who will slaughter Americans by the
thousands if they ever get the chance. If al-Qaeda wants to use that for its recruitment drives, let them. William Yeomans, Fellow in Law and Government,
the world.
Washington College of Law, American University; former Chief Counsel to Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Senate Judiciary Committee President Obama must fulfill his commitment to close the
Guantanamo Bay detention facility. Indeed, he should convert the facility from a symbol of America's lawless abuse of detainees into a beacon of humanitarian compassion by embracing its use
as a base for Haitian relief and development. The justification for closing Guantanamo remains undiminished. The facility was established as an extra-legal black hole for Muslim men, some of
whom were dangerous, but most of whom had simply been in the wrong place or were turned over for bounty. Men disappeared into Guantanamo and were denied all access to justice until
determined advocates convinced courts to recognize their rights. Guantanamo damaged our national security by tarnishing America's standing in the world and serving as a powerful recruiting
tool for terrorists. President Obama correctly recognized that restoring America's strength required eliminating this blight on our ideals. His retraction of that promise would be calamitous.
President Obama correctly recognized that restoring America's strength required eliminating this blight on our ideals. His retraction of that promise would be calamitous. The president's
recognition that Yemen is a breeding ground for terrorists should not affect his commitment to close Guantanamo. The temporary moratorium on returning detainees to Yemen will simply require
moving to the mainland some additional detainees who are already considered sufficiently non-threatening to be released. Whether detainees are in Guantanamo or Illinois, the administration will
face the same decisions on whether and how to try them. Congress should support the president's instruction to obtain and outfit the corrections center in Thomson, Illinois. Maximum security
federal facilities have long housed terrorists without incident. These facilities are secure from escape from within and penetration from without.
falter, and Congress must not again succumb to the politics of fear. Together, they should act quickly to turn a
stain on our national soul into a vibrant symbol of hope and renewal.
The function of Guantanamo Bay will be served somewhere. Closing Guantanamo will not
relieve the United States from needing a facility to house and interrogate suspected
terrorists. Should Guantanamo close, the government would have to relocate these
functions. If there are problems with the detainment center, those problems should be
transparently addressed. The Pentagon has taken great pains to ensure that all appropriate domestic and international agencies
have adequate access to the facilities and has been responsive to credible allegations of abuse. Unlike in the tyrannical or
regimes of North Korea or China, for example, alleged abuses of prisoners are investigated
and those found guilty are held responsible. Moreover, there are established avenues by
which Congress, the International Committee of the Red Cross, Red Crescent, and the
media exercise differing degrees of oversight in Guantanamo. Changing locations now
would lead to a transition period during which these organizations would have less access
than they do today.
Changing the physical location of the detainees is not legally significant. Neither the
detainees nor the United States stand to gain significantly in the legal arena if the detention
center at Guantanamo Bay is closed. The "illegal enemy combatants" held at the facility
have access to U.S. courts (as held by the Supreme Court in Rasul v. Bush[5]). Detainees have been making much use of
their access to legal counsel, as evidenced, for example, by a November 2004 District Court opinion holding that the Bush
Administration had overstepped its authority in several areas. Moving the detainees within the continental
United States will not give them additional rights because Guantanamo Bay is already
considered sufficiently under U.S. control to provide rights to them.[6] After the Rasul opinion, the detainees and
the U.S. government will have the same legal advantages and disadvantages within the U.S. as they do at Guantanamo Bay. There
are no compelling legal reasons to move the detainees and close Guantanamo Bay.
Another concern for the anti-Guantanamo Bay protesters is the legal rights and due
process afforded the detainees. These people believe that in order to give detainees a fair
trial using untainted evidence, all legal processed must occur in the U.S. judicial system. In
actuality, Guantanamo Bay will not gain any more legal sufficiency by moving to the U.S.
than it currently has. As reviewed earlier, there were errors executive decision making throughout the history of Guantanamo Bay
with regard to detainee classification and military tribunals. Those issues indeed require correction. However, correcting the
legal complications does not require the detainees to move anywhere. Once revamped, the
detainees can enjoy their due process in the U.S. legal system while remaining detained at Guantanamo Bay. The
government can simply transport the detainee to any trial appearances on an as-needed basis . Moving the detainees will
not necessarily give them more rights
Illinois
Obama bought prison in Illinois for transferring Gitmo inmates
Fox News, 2012 (Fox News, Lawmakers claim administration opening door to Gitmo transfer with Illinois
prison buy, Fox News, 10/2/12, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/02/lawmakers-claim-administrationopening-door-to-gitmo-transfer-with-illinois/)
The Obama administration plans to buy an Illinois prison that at one point was considered for housing
Guantanamo prisoners -- with Republican lawmakers now claiming the purchase would open the door for
ultimately carrying out the Guantanamo transfer. Administration officials, though, denied that they were looking
for a new home for Guantanamo inmates. They insisted the decision to buy Thomson Correctional Center, an underused state prison 150 miles west of Chicago, was a move to alleviate overcrowding and create jobs in the process.
"This is about public safety and 50 percent overcrowding in high-security prisons," one Justice Department official
said. Officials insisted Guantanamo detainees would not be coming to Illinois. But Virginia Republican Rep.
Frank Wolf, among the lawmakers who opposed the federal purchase of the prison, claimed Tuesday that the
Obama administration could still carry out its plan -- perhaps by moving prisoners from another federal
prison to Thomson, and then using that prison to house Guantanamo detainees. "The president says his goal
is to shut down Guantanamo Bay and move the prisoners here," Wolf told Fox News, accusing the
administration of circumventing Congress. "This gives him a great opportunity to do it, particularly right
after the election." Wolf chairs a key House subcommittee overseeing the sale. He was referring to Obama's
pledge immediately after taking office that he would shut down the Guantanamo Bay prison camp -- a pledge
that stands as one of the president's most glaring unfulfilled promises to his base. The move to transfer
prisoners stateside, though, was met with a fierce backlash among some lawmakers, who worried it would
pose a security risk. The Obama administration and Federal Bureau of Prisons is now going ahead with the $165
million purchase of the Illinois prison, strictly as a move to ease overcrowding, they say. The move was first
announced by Illinois Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin and Gov. Pat Quinn. "This historic action will lead to the
creation of hundreds of construction jobs and over 1,000 permanent jobs at this federal facility," Durbin said in a
statement. "After facing a political standoff in the House of Representatives, I went directly to the president and
asked him to take this action." Quinn called it "excellent news." House Appropriations Committee Chairman Hal
Rogers, R-Ky., warned his committee would oppose the purchase. "The Obama administration has been
trying for years to open Thompson prison in order to transfer terrorists from Guantanamo Bay onto U.S.
soil," Rogers said. "This back-door move by the Obama administration to open Thompson and reject the will
of Congress and the American people is dangerously irresponsible and will be met with the full and unfettered
opposition of the Appropriations Committee." Thomson was built in 2001, but budget troubles kept it from fully
opening. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
lawful prosecution, then this is truly a positive step," said Joanne Mariner, counterterrorism director at
Human Rights Watch. If not, "President Obama will simply have moved Guantanamo to Illinois." White
House officials did not say how many inmates are likely to be transferred to the Thomson Correctional
Center. Some detainees will be held for trial by military commissions on the prison grounds, while others
could be held without charges. "We are trying to get to zero here with the detainees," one administration official
said, referring to the prison in Cuba. "If we have to detain any without trial, we will only do so as a last resort." The
official said individual cases will be subject to oversight by Congress and the federal courts. The Thomson decision
alone will not get Obama to his goal of shutting Guantanamo Bay, which became a symbol of what critics said was
the Bush administration's willingness to flout international conventions. But the plan is another piece of a puzzle that
includes the prospective departure of 116 detainees recommended for release by an interagency team led by Justice
Department prosecutors. The administration also announced last month that several suspects will be tried in New
York federal court and others by the military.
newly purchased federal prison in Thompson, Illinois . William Lynn, Obamas Deputy Defense Secretary, sent a
letter to inquiring Senators that expressly stated that the Obama administration intended to continue indefinitely
to imprison some of the detainees with no charges of any kind. The plan was classic Obama: a pretty, feelgood, empty symbolic gesture (get rid of the symbolic face of Bush War on Terror excesses) while preserving the
core abuses (the powers of indefinite detention ), even strengthening and expanding those abuses by bringing
them into the U.S. Recall that the ACLU immediately condemned what it called the Presidents plan to create
GITMO North. About the Presidents so-called plan to close Guantanamo, Executive Director Anthony Romero
said: The creation of a Gitmo North in Illinois is hardly a meaningful step forward. Shutting down Guantnamo
will be nothing more than a symbolic gesture if we continue its lawless policies onshore. Alarmingly, all
indications are that the administration plans to continue its predecessors policy of indefinite detention without
charge or trial for some detainees, with only a change of location. Such a policy is completely at odds with our
democratic commitment to due process and human rights whether its occurring in Cuba or in Illinois. In fact, while
the Obama administration inherited the Guantnamo debacle, this current move is its own affirmative adoption of
those policies. It is unimaginable that the Obama administration is using the same justification as the Bush
administration used to undercut centuries of legal jurisprudence and the principle of innocent until proven guilty and
the right to confront ones accusers. . . . .The Obama administrations announcement today contradicts everything
the president has said about the need for America to return to leading with its values. In fact, Obamas close
GITMO plan if it had been adopted by Congress would have done something worse than merely
continue the camps defining injustice of indefinite detention. It would likely have expanded those powers by
importing them into the U.S. The day after President Obamas speech proposing a system of prolonged detention
on U.S. soil, the ACLUs Ben Wizner told me in an interview: It may to serve to enshrine into law the very
departures from the law that the Bush administration led us on, and that we all criticized so much. And Ill elaborate
on that. But thats really my initial reaction to it; that what President Obama was talking about yesterday is making
permanent some of the worst features of the Guantanamo regime. He may be shutting down the prison on that camp,
but whats worse is he may be importing some of those legal principles into our own legal system, where theyll do
great harm for a long time. So even if Congress had fully supported and funded Obamas plan to close
Guantanamo, the core injustices that made the camp such a travesty would remain. In fact, theyd not only
remain, but would be in full force within the U.S. Thats what makes the prime excuse offered for Obama
he tried to end all of this but couldnt so misleading. He only wanted to change the locale of these injustices,
but sought fully to preserve them.
Torture Advantage
Torture Low/Decreasing
Status quo solves conditions are now humanitarian
Pearlstein, 12 (Deb, assistant professor of international and constitutional law at Cardozo Law School in New
York. She was part of the first group of human rights monitors granted access in 2004 to observe military
commission proceedings at Guantnamo Bay, The Situation Is Better Than It Was, JANUARY 9, 2012, 6:33 PM,
NYT Room For Debate, Online, http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/01/09/guantanamo-10-yearslater/guantanamo-better-than-it-was, accessed 7/23/13) PE
For all that remains deplorable about the continuing operation of the Guantnamo prison, it is wrong to
suggest, as some have, that the situation now is no different than it was a decade ago. But the reasons many of
our most distinguished military leaders have called for the facilitys closure remain valid. In 2002, detention
conditions at the base were often abusive, and for some, torturous. Today, prisoners are generally housed in
conditions that meet international standards, and the prison operates under an executive order that appears to
have succeeded in prohibiting torture and cruelty. In 2002, the U.S. president asserted exclusive control over the
prison, denying the applicability of fundamental laws that would afford its residents even the most basic
humanitarian and procedural protections, and rejecting the notion that the courts had any power to constrain
executive discretion. Today, all three branches of government are engaged in applying the laws that recognize
legal rights in the detainees. Guantnamo once housed close to 800 prisoners, and most outside observers were
barred from the base. Today, it holds 171, and independent lawyers, among others, have met with most detainees
many times.
detainees endured. In fact, the enhanced interrogation techniques (EITs) that CIA used were applied at most
for only 30 days. On average, it was much less. Abu Zubaydah, the first detainee subjected to EITs, received them
for less than three weeks. Mohammed's period of harsh -- but legal and necessary -- treatment was even less. The
public impression, aided and abetted by the media, is that the practice of waterboarding was rampant. In fact,
only three detainees: Mohammed, Zubaydah and one other were ever waterboarded, the last one more than nine
years ago. Many of the stories this weekend repeated the assertion that Mohammed was waterboarded 183 times.
But 183 is a count of the number of pours of water from a plastic water bottle. Mohammed told the International
Committee of the Red Cross in 2007 that he had been waterboarded five times. If his story has now changed, it is
only to match the media narrative. Some will say it doesn't matter how many times Mohammed was waterboarded -the practice is brutal and must never be used. What goes unacknowledged is that in addition to the three terrorists,
the United States has waterboarded tens of thousands of U.S. military personnel. If the practice is torture for the al
Qaeda operative who masterminded the killing of three thousand Americans, why weren't there court-martials in the
cases of those thousands of servicemen similarly treated as part of their training? There is no doubt that the detainees
will try to use the legal proceedings as a soapbox to spout their contempt for America -- a contempt already indelibly
displayed by such acts as ordering passenger jets to fly into iconic buildings or, in the case of Mohammed,
personally beheading Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl. In my book, I detail the critical information we
obtained from al Qaeda terrorists after they became compliant following a short period of enhanced interrogation. I
have no doubt that that interrogation was legal, necessary and saved lives. It is good that these terrorists are now
facing justice, but in the reporting of the case, it would be helpful if the media didn't help them with their
propaganda mission by unquestioningly repeating false information about their detention.
Closing Worse
Guantanamos closing would lead to far worst conditions
Posner 13 (Eric, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School, is the co-author of "Terror in the Balance:
Security, Liberty and the Courts.", The U.S needs Guantanamo, The New York Times,
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/01/09/guantanamo-10-years-later/the-us-needs-guantanamo)
If Guantnamo were closed, the U.S. military would need to hold those prisoners someplace else. As long as
the U.S. uses military force in foreign countries and on the high seas, Guantnamo is necessary. To be sure,
there are other options. Detainees could be placed in prison camps on foreign territory controlled by the U.S.
military, where they lack access to U.S. courts and security is less certain. More than a thousand detainees are
currently held at Bagram, in Afghanistan. Detainees could be turned over to foreign governments, where they
are likely to be tortured. The Clinton administration took this approach. Or suspected terrorists could be
killed with drone strikes rather than captured which seems to be the de facto tactic of the
Obama administration. For those who care about human rights, these options are
hardly preferable to Guantnamo Bay.
Doesnt Solve
Closing GITMO wont solve legal status or torture its inevitable.
Berenson 05(Bradford, lawyer who served in the White House counsel's office, Why Guantanamo Bay
Should Stay Open, NPR, 6/10/2005, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4697513
INSKEEP: We've heard plenty of arguments for closing the Guantanamo detention center. What is the argument for keeping it open? Mr.
BERENSON: Guantanamo has become a symbol for a set of practices in the war on terror that people object to. But it's really not Guantanamo
that people have a problem with. It's the practices involving detainees at Guantanamo that are the fodder for the critics. So closing
Guantanamo really will have only symbolic value. The things that we are doing at Guantanamo Bay will still
have to take place somewhere and Guantanamo is in many ways the ideal location to have prison camps of this kind. It is completely
secure, so there are no risks to American civilian populations, no risks of escape, yet it is close to the United States so that policy-makers,
lawyers, journalists, can have ready access, but it is not within the United States. In that sense, Guantanamo's somewhat unique. INSKEEP:
Forgive me, are you saying that the practices that have been widely criticized in the way that US has treated detainees are going to continue no
matter what? Mr. BERENSON: No, I don't mean that the abuses or the violations of US policy that have occurred from time to time are going to
take place elsewhere or anyway. But those things are not really what are stimulating the criticism. The critics of Guantanamo Bay and
the critics of the administration's detainee policy don't like the fact that we are holding people as enemy
combatants in a war on terror and that we are keeping them outside of the criminal justice system. That
won't change.
true... [and] the condition under which we, as individuals, exist and what causes us to exist in the way that
we do. From this point of view, self-reflexivity is a vital methodological notion in the methodologies of the critical
approach. Last but not least, it is not only the orthodox approach that can be revised by self-reflexive methodologies. The critical approach
can also benefit by carefully examining itself.
innocent, productive human beings cannot be explained by a lack of money or a poor quality of life--only by
anti-wealth, anti-life ideas. These terrorists are motivated by the ideology of Islamic Fundamentalism. This
other-worldly, authoritarian doctrine views America's freedom, prosperity, and pursuit of worldly pleasures as the
height of depravity. Its adherents resent America's success, along with the appeal its culture has to many Middle Eastern youths. To the
fundamentalists, Americans are "infidels" who should be killed . As a former Taliban official said, "The Americans are fighting so
they can live and enjoy the material things in life. But we are fighting so we can die in the cause of God." The terrorists hate us
because of their ideology--a fact that filling up the coffers of Third World governments will do nothing to
change. What then, can our government do? It cannot directly eradicate the deepest, philosophical roots of
terrorism; but by using military force, it can eliminate the only "root cause" relevant in a political context:
state sponsorship of terrorism. The fundamentalists' hostility toward America can translate into international
terrorism only via the governments that employ, finance, train, and provide refuge to terrorist networks.
Such assistance is the cause of the terrorist threat--and America has the military might to remove that cause .
It is precisely in the name of fighting terrorism at its root that America must extend its fist, not its hand. Whatever other areas of the world may
require U.S. troops to stop terrorist operations, we must above all go after the single main source of the threat--Iran. This theocratic nation is both
the birthplace of the Islamic Fundamentalist revolution and, as a consequence, a leading sponsor of terrorism. Removing that government from
power would be a potent blow against Islamic terrorism. It would destroy the political embodiment of the terrorists' cause. It would declare
America's intolerance of support for terrorists. It would be an unequivocal lesson, showing what will happen to other countries if they fail to
crack down on terrorists within their borders. And it would acknowledge the fact that dropping bombs, not food packages, is the
only way for our government to attack terrorism at its root.
international communitys ability to combat terrorism. It will enable legislation and specific punishments
against those perpetrating, involved in, or supporting terrorism, and will allow the formulation of a codex of
laws and international conventions against terrorism, terrorist organizations, states sponsoring terrorism,
and economic firms trading with them. At the same time, the definition of terrorism will hamper the attempts of
terrorist organizations to obtain public legitimacy, and will erode support among those segments of the
population willing to assist them (as opposed to guerrilla activities). Finally, the operative use of the definition of
terrorism could motivate terrorist organizations, due to moral or utilitarian considerations, to shift from
terrorist activities to alternative courses (such as guerrilla warfare) in order to attain their aims, thus reducing the
scope of international terrorism. The struggle to define terrorism is sometimes as hard as the struggle against terrorism itself. The
present view, claiming it is unnecessary and well-nigh impossible to agree on an objective definition of terrorism, has long established itself as
the politically correct one. It is the aim of this paper, however, to demonstrate that an objective, internationally accepted definition of terrorism
is a feasible goal, and that an effective struggle against terrorism requires such a definition. The sooner the nations
of the world come to this realization, the better.
Yes War
China
War with China more likely miscommunication and accidental launch
Fisher 11 (Max Fisher, former writer and editor at The Atlantic. 5 Most Likely Ways the U.S. and China Could Spark Accidental Nuclear
War. The Atlantic 31 October 2011. Web.) http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/5-most-likely-ways-the-us-and-chinacould-spark-accidental-nuclear-war/247616/ EW
After 10 years of close but unproductive talks, the U.S. and China still fail to understand one another's nuclear weapons
policies, according to a disturbing report by Global Security Newswire. In other words, neither the U.S. nor China knows when
the other will or will not use a nuclear weapon against the other. That's not due to hostility, secrecy, or deliberate foreign
policy -- it's a combination of mistrust between individual negotiators and poor communication ; at times, something
as simple as a shoddy translation has prevented the two major powers from coming together. Though nuclear war between the U.S. and China is
still extremely unlikely, because the two countries do not fully understand when the other will and will not deploy nuclear weapons, the odds
of starting an accidental nuclear conflict are much higher. Neither the U.S. nor China has any interest in any kind of war with
one other, nuclear or non-nuclear. The greater risk is an accident. Here's how it would happen. First, an unforeseen event that
sparks a small conflict or threat of conflict. Second, a rapid escalation that moves too fast for either side to
defuse. And, third, a mutual misunderstanding of one another's intentions. This three-part process can move so quickly that
the best way to avert a nuclear war is for both sides to have absolute confidence that they understand when
the other will and will not use a nuclear weapon. Without this, U.S. and Chinese policy-makers would have to
guess -- perhaps with only a few minutes -- if and when the other side would go nuclear. This is especially scary because both sides have
good reason to err on the side of assuming nuclear war. If you think there's a 50-50 chance that someone is
about to lob a nuclear bomb at you, your incentive is to launch a preventative strike, just to be safe . This is
especially true because you know the other side is thinking the exact same thing. In fact, even if you think the other side
probably won't launch an ICBM your way, they actually might if they fear that you're misreading their intentions or if
they fear that you might over-react; this means they have a greater incentive to launch a preemptive strike, which means that you
have a greater incentive to launch a preemptive strike, in turn raising their incentives , and on and on until one tiny
kernel of doubt can lead to a full-fledged war that nobody wants.
Russia
War likely now tensions over Iran and Syria
Global Research 12 (BREAKING: Real Danger of US Military Strike on Iran and Syria: Russian Security Council.
Global
Research 12 January 2012. Web.) http://www.globalresearch.ca/breaking-real-danger-of-us-military-strike-on-iran-and-syria-russian-securitycouncil/28624 EW
Russian Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev warned that military escalation is likely in Iran, with real danger of
a US strike, in an interview published Thursday. He added that Syria, which has refused to break its ties with Tehran,
could also be a target for Western intervention. There is a likelihood of military escalation of the conflict, and Israel is
pushing the Americans towards it, Patrushev said in an interview published on the website of the daily Kommersant. There is a
real danger of a US military strike on Iran, the senior Russian security official said. At present, the US sees Iran as its
main problem. They are trying to turn Tehran from an enemy into a supportive partner, and to achieve this,
to change the current regime by whatever means, he added.
MAD
MAD Fails
Jerivs 2 (Robert Jervis is the Adlai E. Stevenson professor of international politics at Columbia University. He was president of the American
Political Science Association in 2000-01. Mutual Assured Destruction. Foreign Policy December 2002.) EW
Critics like military strategists Herman Kahn and Colin Gray disagreed. They argued that nuclear warheads were immensely
destructive but not qualitatively different from previous weapons of warfare. Consequently, the traditional rules of
strategy applied: Security policy could only rest on credible threats (i.e., those that it made sense to carry out). The adoption
of a policy that involved throwing up your hands and destroying the world if war actually broke out was not only the height of irresponsibility;
MAD also failed to address the main strategic concern for the United States, which was to prevent the Soviets
from invading Western Europe. The stability that MAD was supposed to provide actually would have allowed
U.S. adversaries to use force below the nuclear level whenever it was to their advantage to do so. If the United States
could not have threatened to escalate a conflict by using nuclear weapons, then the Soviets would have had free rein to
fight and win a conventional war in Europe. Privately, most generals and top civilian leaders were never convinced of the utility of
MAD, and that skepticism was reflected in both Soviet and U.S. war planning. Each side strove for advantage, sought
to minimize damage to its society, deployed defenses when deemed practical , and sought limited nuclear options that
were militarily effective. Yet, for all these efforts, it is highly probable that a conventional war in Europe or, even more likely, the
limited use of nuclear weapons would have prompted a full-scale nuclear war that would have resulted in mutual
destruction.
military buildup
convinced U.S. policymakers that the U.S.S.R. did not believe in MAD and was seeking nuclear advantage . The
Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan and its African adventures revealed that MAD could not protect all U.S. interests. In
response, U.S. leaders talked about the significance of nuclear superiority and about the possibility of
surviving a nuclear war. Most dramatically, President Ronald Reagan called for missile defense, declaring in 1983 that " to look down
to an endless future with both of us sitting here with these horrible missiles aimed at each other and the only thing
preventing a holocaust is just so long as no one pulls this trigger-this is unthinkable ."
Interdependence
Interdependence doesnt prevent war
Wyne 12 (Ali Wyne, Researcher, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
Treder 5 (Mike Treder is the executive director of the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology.
tenuous balance of MAD and the worldwide network of commercial trade are both threatened by the rise of
advanced nanotechnology.
Fettweis indict
Fettweis analysis is flawed doesnt assume key factors
Hanley 11 (Lieutenant Colonel Hanley works as a supervisory intelligence analyst in the Washington, D.C. area. He is a former member of
the Naval Institutes editorial board and a regular contributor to Proceedings. Bluetoad.com January 2011.) http://www.bluetoad.com/print.php?
pages=72&issue_id=57476&ref=1 EW
Fettweis says nothing about the reckless proliferation of dual-use technologies especially biotechnologies and nuclear
fuel-cycle technology. The past masters of proliferation include the very powers China and Russiawhom
Fettweis claims have no desire to fight a major war. Its been a mere 20 years since the end of the IranIraq wara territorial
dispute between states aspiring to regional dominancewhich resembled World War I a lot more closely than it did anything surmised in
Fettweiss worldview. What are we to make of Chinas recent claim to indisputable sovereignty over 1.3 million
square miles of the South China Sea, substantial portions of which are considered international waters? What
happens if a dispute over navigation cant be resolved through diplomacy? What of the territorial disputes
between India and Pakistan? War may not be likely under such circumstances, as it has throughout human history, but it is certainly
possible
EscalationChina
War with China will escalate Chinese preemption
Wroe 13 (David Wroe is the defence correspondent for The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald in Canberra.
China's growing military might threatens to end more than half a century of US dominance on the western
Pacific rim.