Analysing Negative Skewness of Spot Returns

in the Australian Electricity Market

Xuebing Lu and Ly Fie Sugianto, PhD, Member, IEEE

AbstractAs the electricity industry reform progresses into

maturity, spot price modeling and forecasting become important
topics in todays deregulated electricity market research.
Electricity is different from other commodities due to its nonstorable feature. Hence its spot price and return present unique
characteristics, which spot price models should endeavor to
capture. In essence, the purpose of this paper is to analyse the
negative skewness present in daily average spot returns and test
the validity of the hypothesis that there exists a direct relationship
between price spikes and negative skewness. Monte Carlo
technique has been employed to simulate the spot price return.
Using the historical data from the Victorian market, the
simulation results confirm the validity of the hypothesis on
correlation between the price spikes and negative skewness. Thus,
it is proposed that negative skewness should be employed as part
of the criteria in evaluating daily average spot price models.
Index TermsElectricity pricing, Power markets, Stochastic
processes, Financial data processing, Monte Carlo methods.

I. INTRODUCTION

HE introduction of competition to the electricity industry

through deregulation and privatization is aimed at
lowering the price of electricity. Competitive electricity
price is meant as a vehicle for social, industrial and
commercial success. However, competitiveness in the
electricity industry does not directly lead to lower price. With
unexpected outages, transmission congestions and excessive
market power, generating companies can influence the spot
price and form tacit collusion. Demand forecasting, electricity
price forecasting and spot price modeling become areas of
interests of many academics and practitioners as the electricity
market becomes mature.
Our study aims to extend the current scope of electricity
spot price modelling, which is mainly focused on capturing
mean-reversion and stochastic volatility. We propose that
negative skewness should also be used as a criterion when
selecting and evaluating electricity spot price models. In
essence, the objective of this paper is to establish direct
relationship between price spikes and negative skewness using
Monte Carlo simulation.
The paper is structured as follows: an overview of spot price
characteristics is presented in Section 2; stochastic processes
that will be used to simulate the spot returns are described in

Section 3 and Section 4; Section 5 describes some preliminary

methods for parameter estimation and random number
generation and reports the simulated results; last but not least,
Section 5 discusses the limitation of this study and draws
conclusion on the findings.
II. SPOT PRICE CHARACTERISTICS
Electricity is considered to be one of the most volatile
commodities in the world with limited transportability. Its nonstorability, plus transmission constraints, in the form of
capacity limits in the transmission lines and their associated
network losses, makes the transmission of electricity between
certain regions impossible if not uneconomical. As a result,
arbitrage across time and space is almost impossible and
electricity spot prices are largely dependent on temporal and
local demand and supply conditions. Because of these physical
characteristics and constraints of the electricity market,
electricity spot price typically has the following features.
A. Mean Reverting
Spot electricity price can fluctuate between a big range,
when the highest price during peak hour can reach as high as
$6000/MWh and the lowest can fall below $20MWh.
Electricity prices due to transmission constraints and
generation outage do not sustain and often revert to its mean
level (or normal trend). In real market situation, the spot price
does not mean revert to a constant long-term level. Rather it
reverts to a level dependent on market information on
constraints and demand-supply conditions available at a given
time. In terms of returns, as shown in Fig. 1.b(1)-1.b(5), most
of the time they rather fluctuate around zero.
B. Stochastic Volatility
The fact that volatility of spot price changes through time
can simply be identified by inspection on the real time data, as
shown in Fig. 1.a(1)-a(5). The spot market is extremely
volatile especially over summer and winter time when demand
peaks, and not as volatile in shoulder periods. Price spikes can
be found throughout the year but mainly clusters in peak hours
during the day and peak seasons like summer and winter. It is
also clear that, from Fig. 1.b(1)-1.b(5), fluctuation of the spot
returns is much lumpier than the even variation normally
distributed variable. This lumpiness is often referred as
volatility clustering. Volatility clustering occurs with positive
correlation whereby large returns, of either positive or negative

X. Lu is PhD Research Candidate at the Clayton School of Information

Technology, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia (Email:
xuebing.lu@infotech.monash.edu.au).
L. F. Sugianto is Senior Lecturer at the Clayton School of Information
Technology, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
(Email: lyfie.sugianto@infotech.monash.edu.au).

142440178X/06/$20.002006IEEE

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PSCE2006

1500

1000
(a1)

(b1)
500

-2
200

400

600

800

1000

6000
(a2)

4000

(b2)

2000
200

400

600

800

60
(b3)

40
20
200

400

600

800

600

800

1000

200

400

600

800

1000

200

400

600

800

1000

200

400

600

800

1000

200

400

600

800

1000

4
2

2000

(b4)

1000

0
-2
-4

200

400

600

800

1000

600
(a5)

400

1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5

1000

3000
(a4)

200
4
2
0
-2
-4

1000

80
(a3)

(b5)

400
200
200

400

600

800

1000

1
0
-1
-2

Fig. 1. Victorian daily prices and returns for peak time of year 2001-2004. From (a1) to (a5) are daily average prices, daily maximum prices, daily minimum
prices, daily mid-point prices and daily median prices. (b1) (b5) are the corresponding returns calculated from (a1) (a5).

signs, follow large returns of the same sign. In the actual

market, volatile periods of large returns are interspersed
with less volatile (tranquil) periods of small returns.

D. Existence of Negative Skewness

Another important feature of spot return distribution,
which has not been thoroughly explored in the literature, is
the time-varying skewness, especially the existence of
negative skewness in the daily spot return. We tabulated
skewness together with mean, standard deviation and
kurtosis, of returns of different months of the year in Table
I. We also plot both standard deviation and skewness in
Fig.2 to show the scale of the variation. One thing worth
knowing is that negative skewness typically associates with
months when the market is more volatile, for example,
February, March and December. The fact that negative
skewness exists for months when price spikes are prevalent

C. Seasonal
Electricity demand that reflects the trend and pattern in
electricity consumption is one of the fundamental drivers of
electricity spot price. Therefore, electricity spot price,
depending on the demand level, presents the following
patterns: day pattern, characterized by the time of day; week
pattern, characterized by working vs non-working says; and
year pattern, characterized by the seasons. It tends to go up
at peak hours, on working days and at times with extreme
weather conditions, such as exceptionally cold/hot days in
winter/summer.

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TABLE I TIME-VARYING SKEWNESS IN VICTORIAN DAILY PEAK ELECTRICITY SPOT PRICES OF YEAR 2001 -2004

2001

2002

Mean

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

-0.02

0.01

-0.02

0.03

-0.01

-0.02

0.00

0.00

-0.01

0.02

-0.02

0.00

0.72

1.23

0.15

0.20

0.22

0.11

0.11

0.59

0.09

0.24

0.31

0.62

Kurtosis

0.80

3.07

-0.38

-1.25

4.22

2.58

-0.01

10.39

-0.87

2.79

7.14

6.20

Skewness

0.17

-1.16

-0.98

0.17

-1.56

1.24

0.46

0.34

-0.24

0.68

0.24

-0.59
-0.02

Mean

0.03

-0.02

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.01

-0.02

-0.01

0.00

-0.01

0.02

Std

0.20

0.26

0.27

0.13

0.86

0.72

0.83

0.15

0.13

0.18

0.34

0.53

Kurtosis

1.14

2.03

3.40

-0.53

2.07

1.13

3.34

-0.25

0.31

-1.07

1.90

1.36

Mean
Std
Kurtosis
Skewness

2004

Feb

Std

Skewness
2003

Jan

Mean
Std
Kurtosis
Skewness

0.73

-0.98

0.98

-0.51

0.46

0.64

0.83

0.73

0.95

0.06

1.17

0.89

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

0.02

-0.02

0.00

0.00

0.02

-0.01

0.55

0.25

0.55

0.12

0.37

0.87

0.51

0.26

0.23

0.20

0.19

0.39

-0.10

2.32

7.78

0.49

6.59

6.99

10.21

3.51

0.50

-0.09

-0.20

-0.37

0.65

1.10

-1.96

0.86

1.32

1.00

2.15

0.82

0.40

-0.58

0.68

-0.24

-0.02

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.01

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.02

0.07

-0.09

0.38

0.71

0.22

0.28

0.40

0.16

0.66

0.12

0.17

0.67

0.26

0.35

-0.45

8.63

-1.23

2.70

3.89

-1.06

9.01

0.16

1.24

8.41

2.25

9.85

0.42

-1.89

-0.12

1.35

0.03

-0.32

0.25

-0.21

0.10

-1.92

1.15

-2.86

suggest that there might be direct correlation between price

spikes and negative skewness.
where S is the asset price, is the expected rate of return of
the asset, is the volatility of the asset price and dz is a
Wiener process.
To allow mean reversion, a more realistic process for
spot electricity price is

3.00
2.00
1.00

dS = ( x ln S ) Sdt + Sdz

(2)

0.00

Equation (2) incorporates mean reversion and is analogous

to the log normal process assumed for shot-term interest
rate. To understand this model, the variable is the mean
reversion rate and is restricted to be positive. It determines
how fast the asset price S mean reverts to the long-term
average S = e . If the asset price is higher than the longterm average, then the drift ( ln S ) < 0 and the price
will be dragged back to its long-term mean and vice versa.
However, this does not mean that the asset price will be

-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
STD

-4.00

Skew ness

Fig. 2. Plot of time-varying skewness and standard deviation of Victorian

daily peak electricity spot returns.

guaranteed to move back to S at any point in time, since

the term Sdz can be of opposite sign and greater
magnitude than the drift term. Now let x = ln S and apply
Itos Lemma, (2) becomes

III. STOCHASTIC PROCESS FOR SPOT ELECTRICITY PRICE

WITHOUT SPIKES
As discussed previously, electricity price is meanreverting. Simple Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM)
process that is normally assumed for asset price does not
incorporate mean reversion, which is less than ideal in this
context. One important difference between spot electricity
price and stock price is that spot electricity price appears to
be pulled to its long-run average, which is normally decided
by fundamental balance of electricity supply and demand.
Following Hull in [1], a simple GBM follows the form
dS = Sdt + Sdz

dx = [ ( x x) 12 2 ]dt + dz

(3)

By letting x1 = x 22 and re-arrange, we obtain

dx = ( x1 x ) dt + dz

(4)

Equation (4) is equivalent to the risk-neutral process

proposed by Vasicek [2], which is normally referred as
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The instantaneous drift

(1)

1684

 ( x1 x)dt represents a force keeps on pulling the process

towards its long-term mean, with the constant instantaneous
variance 2 causing the process to fluctuate around the
mean in an erratic but continuous fashion. When = 0 , we
get
x (t ) = x1 + ( x 0 x1 )e ( t t 0 )

measured as a proportional increase in the asset price, and

is the average growth rate from the jumps.
Thus the expected growth rate from the GBM of the asset
is . dq is the Poisson process generating the jumps
and is assumed to be independent from dz. k is a sequence
of mutually independent random variables that follow
N ( k , 2 ) .To incorporate mean reversion into the (12) and
let x = ln S , we obtain

(5)

by integrating dx = ( x x ) dt with x (t 0 ) = x 0 . When

> 0 , (3) can be integrated in closed form to yield

dx = [ ( x k x ) 12 2 ]dt + dz + kdq

Now, x can be simulated by discretizing (13)

x (t ) = x1 + ( x 0 x1 )e ( t t 0 ) + e (t u ) dz (u ) (6)
t0

x i +1 = x 2 + ( x 2 xi ) t + t i +

Let dt = , then x is normally distributed with mean

Et [ x(t )] = x1 + ( xt x1 )e

(7)

VARt [ x(t )] = 2 (1 e2 )

(8)

2 2
3

Spot returns can be simulated by discretizing (6) as

(10)

IV. STOCHASTIC PROCESS FOR SPOT ELECTRICITY PRICE

WITH SPIKES
Price spikes can be found throughout the year but
mainly clusters in peak hours during the day and peak
seasons like summer. Spikes in electricity prices are
different from the general extreme values in that we
consider high prices above a certain threshold as price
spikes. To avoid ambiguity, we give a formal definition of a
price spike. Let p and p be the mean and standard

x t = c + ax t 1 + t

deviation of spot price, then

s
1 if pt > p + 3 p
Spiket =
s
0 if pt p + 3 p

(14)

(15)

The estimates from the linear regression are (standard errors

in parenthesis):
c = 1.1957 (0.0828)
a = 0.6549(0.0239)

(11)

Spikes like this are generally known as jumps. Merton [3]

was among the first to try to model jumps in financial time
series using his jump-diffusion model:
dS / S = ( ) dt + dz + kdq

j =1

A. Parameter Estimation
In this section, we use the historical data of daily returns
to approximate the parameters for the simulation. Since the
purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between
skewness and the existence of the price spikes, the
parameters estimated here are mainly to serve this purpose
rather than for forecasting. The reason we simulate through
estimated parameters is that the simulated data will be more
realistic and closer to the real market data. Estimation can
be divided into two parts: estimation of mean reversion rate
and estimation of jump parameters. The data used for the
estimation is the daily spot return calculated as log price
difference from Victoria daily average peak price from
2001 and 2004. Peak price refers to spot price between 7am
and 10pm on weekdays excluding public holidays
(approximately 252 days per year).
Mean reversion rate can be obtained by estimating the
following AR(1) process:

1/ 2 (e 3 1)(1 e 2 ) 2 / 3 (9)

xi +1 = x1 + ( x1 xi )t + t i +1

(k +

V. SIMULATION OF SPOT RETURNS

and skewness

Skewt [ x(t )] =

N ( t )

where x 2 = x1 , N(t) is a Poisson counting process

with parameter t, which represents the number of jumps
that occur during t, i and j assumed to be independent
from each other.

and variance
2

(13)

which implies, from (5) and (15), that

x = c /(1 a) = 3.4648

(12)

= ln a = 0.4232

where is again the expected return from the asset, is the

intensity of the arrival of jumps, is the average jump size

As for jump parameters, a recursive filter was used to

derive the parameters from the observed data. All the

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returns that is larger than 3 are treated as jump returns.

Table II shows the results for each iteration step.

0.60

0.40

TABLE II.
ITERATIVE ESTIMATION OF JUMP PARAMETERS FOR RETURNS
CALCULATED FROM VICTORIA PEAK HOUR DAILY AVERAGE PRICE

Skewness

Step

0.20

0.00
-0.20

0.0009

0.445

0.099

2.013

0.008

-0.40

-0.0021

0.283

0.179

1.674

0.013

-0.60

-0.0089

0.235

0.140

1.489

0.018

-0.80

-0.0097

0.210

0.156

1.447

0.019

-0.0119

0.205

0.139

1.412

0.020

-0.0112

0.200

0.130

1.405

0.021

-0.0106

0.199

0.130

1.405

0.021

8
-0.0106
0.199
0.130
is the mean spot return
is the standard deviation of spot return
is the average jump size
is the standard deviation of the jump size
is the daily jump frequency.

1.405

0.021

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

0.1
0.2
0.5

-1.00

0.7

-1.20

0.9

Fig. 3. Simulated skewnes with variation in (0.5 -10) and (0.6 2).
0.20

0.00
0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20
Skewness

0.5

B. Random Number Generator

To generate sample paths we need to generate a sequence
of standard normal deviates {1, 2,., t}. The normal
procedure to generate the sequence is to generate uniform
numbers from 0 to 1 first and then transform them into
standard normal deviates. We used Box-Muller
transformation to ensure that the randomly generated
numbers lie within a unit circle and they are random enough
for the purpose of this simulation. For details, please refer
to [4] and [5]. Here we only lay out the steps for the
computation procedure:
1) Generate two independent uniform random numbers
between 0 and 1, u1 and u2;
2) Set v1 = u1 -1 and v2 = 2u2 1 and compute w = v12 +
v22; 3) If w > 1, return to step 1. Otherwise, set
(2 log w)
(2 log w) .
v1 and N 2 =
v2
N1 =
w
w

-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
0.1

-0.80

0.2
0.4

-1.00

0.6
-1.20

0.9

Fig. 4. Simulated skewness with variation in (0.1-0.9) and (0.6 2.2).

0.00

-0.90 -0.60 -0.30

0.00

0.30

0.60

0.90

-0.50

Skewness

C. Simulation and Results

To replicate peak spot returns, firstly the 252 daily spot
returns are generated using (10) and (14) depending on the
occurrence of spikes for each price path to approximate a
one-year period. Then, skewness for each price path was
calculated. This process was repeated 100 times and the
mean and standard deviation of the skewness are then
calculated. To allow the results to have a general meaning,
we run simulation with a range of mean-reversion rates (),
standard deviation (), average jump sizes ( ), jump
frequency () and standard deviation of jump size (). The
results are plotted in Fig. 3-10. Detailed simulation results
are available from the author on request.

-1.00

-1.50

0.5
-2.00

2
4
6.5

-2.50
Fig. 5. Simulated skewness with variation in
0.9).

1686

10

(0.5 10) and (-0.9

0.0

0.20
0.5 1.5 2.5

3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5

-0.2

0.00

-0.4

-0.20

0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20

0.01

Skewness

Skewness

-0.6
-0.8

-0.40

0.05
0.13

-0.60

0.17

-0.80

0.19

-1.0
-1.00

0.8
-1.2

1.2

-1.20

1.6

-1.4

-1.40

2
-1.6

2.2

Fig. 6. Simulated skewness with variation in

10).

Fig. 9. Simulated skewness with variation in

0.19)

(0.6 2.2) and (0.5

(0.6 2.2) and (0.01

0.50

0.50

0.00

-0.90 -0.60 -0.30

0.00
-0.60

-0.30

0.00

0.30

0.60

Skewness

Skewness

-0.90

0.90

-0.50

0.30

0.60

0.90

-1.00
-1.50

-1.00

0.00

-0.50

0.6
1

-2.00
-1.50

0.01

1.4
1.8

0.03

-2.50

2.2

0.07

-2.00

Fig. 10. Simulated skewness with variation in

2.2)

0.15

(-0.9 -0.9) and (0.6 -

0.19
Fig. 7. Simulated skewness with variation in (0.01 0.19) and
0.9).

From Fig. 3 and Fig. 6, we could see that mean reversion

rate () has the least influence on the negative skewness,
though it does show that skewness increases as mean
reversion rate becomes higher. With standard deviation (),
as shown in Fig. 3 and Fig. 4, negative skewness becomes
insignificant and disappears as increases. In contrast, the
standard deviation of jump size () has much higher effect
on the skewness. As it increases, the spot returns are more
negatively skewed, in Fig. 4. Results are mixed with
average jump size ( ). However, with other parameters
holding constant and at lower end of their range, simulated
spot returns are most negatively skewed in Fig. 5, 7 and 10.
As expected, negative skewness is only prevalent when
jump intensity () is low (below 0.03) as shown in Fig 7-9.
It corresponds to the frequency of spikes in electricity spot
returns estimated in Table II. These results conclude that
the jump parameters have the most effect on negative
skewness. To accentuate the correlation between the
existence of spikes (i.e. when 0 and 0 ) and negative
skewness, we plot the correlation coefficient matrix in

(-0.9

0.40

0.20
0.00
0.01

0.05

0.09

0.13

0.17

Skewness

-0.20
-0.40
0.5
-0.60
-0.80
-1.00
-1.20

1.5
3.5
5.5
7.5
9.5

Fig. 8. Simulated skewness with variation in (0.01 0.19) and (0.5

10).

1687

Table III, with p-value in brackets. The correlation between

both and negative skewness (N), and and negative
skewness (N) are statistically significant with p-value less
than 0.05. Further, in Table IV, we can see that negative
skewness is prevalent across the board when
0 and 0 , i.e., when spikes exist. Basing on all these
results, we can conclude that the negative skewness is
correlated with the existence of price spikes.
TABLE III CORRELATION COEFFICIENT MATRIX BETWEEN ,
NEGATIVE SKEWNESS (N)

1.000

0.000

0.182

(1.000)

(1.000)

(0.017)

0.000

1.000

-0.615

(1.000)

(1.000)

(0.000)

0.182

-0.615

1.000

(0.017)

(0.000)

(1.000)

negative skewness, which in turn can be used as a

preliminary guide or benchmark when carrying out
parameter estimation.
VII. REFERENCES
[1]
[2]
[3]

AND

[4]
[5]

J. Hull, Options, Futures and Other Derivatives, Fourth Edition

Prentice Hall, 2000
O. Vasicek, An equilibrium characterization of the term structure,
Journal of Financial Economics 5, 177-188, 1977,
R. Merton, Option pricing when the underlying stock returns are
discontinuous, Journal of Financial Economics 3, 125-144, 1976
W. H. Press, Numerical recipes in C++: The Art of Scientific
Computing, 2nd ed., New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002
J. London, Modeling Derivatives in C++, New York: J. Wiley, 2005

VIII. BIOGRAPHIES
Xuebing Lu is currently a PhD
candidate at the Faculty of Information
Technology,
Monash
University,
Australia. Her education background is
in Applied Finance. Her areas of
interests are price and volatility
modelling, and risk management in
electricity market.

VI. CONCLUSION
The limitation of the study lies in the simplicity of the
models we used to simulate the spot returns. Both (10) and
(14) assumed constant mean-reversion rates (), standard
deviation (), average jump sizes ( ), jump frequency ()
and standard deviation of jump size (), though we try to
compensate this by simulating spot returns with different
ranges of the above parameters. Therefore the results in this
study should only be used as a guide when comes to
choosing models and values for parameters when doing
similar simulation. However, these assumptions will be
relaxed in later studies.
In conclusion, we have attempted to explain the
existence of negative skewness in spot returns by simulating
spot returns using a jump-diffusion model. As shown in the
paper, the results of the simulation indicate correlation
between the existence of price spikes and negative
skewness in the spot return. The results also demonstrate
the different effects of model parameters can have on

Ly Fie Sugianto is currently a Senior

Lecturer at the Clayton School of
Information Technology, Faculty of
Information
Technology,
Monash
University, Australia. She holds
Bachelor of Computer Systems
Engineering (H1) degree from Curtin
University and Doctor of Philosophy in
Electrical Engineering from Monash
University.
Dr Sugianto has published 60+
research papers in optimization
technique, strategic bidding,
Fuzzy mathematics, Decision Support Systems and eCommerce.
She has received several grants to conduct research in electricity
markets and information systems. She has also been nominated as
an expert of international standing by the ARC College of Experts
for her work in the electricity market.

TABLE IV SIMULATED SKEWNESS (S) WITH THE EXISTENCE OF SPIKES

S
-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

0.6

-0.74

-0.77

-1.02

-0.81

-1.60

-1.45

-1.50

-1.24

-0.93

-1.59

-1.75

-1.24

-1.12

-1.23

0.8

-0.87

-0.85

-1.17

-0.86

-1.18

-1.34

-1.32

-1.43

-1.57

-0.82

-1.48

-1.18

-1.17

-1.33

-0.77

-0.73

-1.11

-0.80

-0.76

-1.33

-1.04

-1.19

-0.86

-1.48

-0.78

-0.82

-0.97

-1.15

1.2

-0.87

-0.60

-0.42

-0.84

-1.58

-0.91

-0.73

-1.24

-1.47

-0.95

-1.04

-0.87

-0.90

-1.01

1.4

-1.09

-0.88

-0.71

-0.91

-0.67

-0.84

-1.18

-0.84

-0.97

-1.05

-1.35

-1.31

-1.40

-1.21

1.6

-0.65

-0.44

-1.13

-0.53

-0.82

-1.19

-0.88

-0.92

-1.29

-1.47

-0.82

-1.00

-1.10

-0.82

1.8

-0.88

-0.33

-0.57

-1.33

-1.03

-0.82

-0.49

-0.72

-0.91

-1.21

-1.56

-0.92

-0.65

-1.32

-0.78

-0.47

-1.11

-0.99

-0.60

-0.72

-0.82

-1.58

-0.72

-1.31

-0.82

-1.00

-0.82

-1.27

2.2

-0.50

-0.98

-0.81

-0.88

-0.84

-1.10

-0.35

-1.07

-1.38

-1.49

-0.72

-1.03

-1.09

-1.17

1688