Solar impact on global climate changes

Y. Shopov
Citation: AIP Conference Proceedings 1551, 179 (2013); doi: 10.1063/1.4818867
View online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4818867
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Solar Impact on Global Climate Changes

Y. Shopov
University Center for Space Research and Technologies, St. Clement of Ohrid University at Sofia,
5 James Bourchier Blvd., BG-1164 Sofia, Bulgaria
e-mail: yyshopov@phys.uni-sofia.bg
Abstract. Sunspots provide total solar irradiance (TSI) proxy records for the last 310 years. Speleothem achieves are still
only of TSI proxy record providers, which allow extending of the TSI experimental records back to the pre- instrumental
times. Therefore they are very important for the assessment of the solar forcing of the climate in the pre-industrial era.
Using such speleothem records we demonstrated that variations of the solar irradiation which can produce climatic
variations are: (i) powerful prolonged solar cycles, which affect climatic variations and (ii) amplification of solar
irradiance impact on climate by different potential non-linear mechanism or by a combination of them. Such
amplification is important at durations shorter than 11 years but can be more significant in timescales less than 1 year.
Keywords: global climate change, global warming, greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, solar cycles
PACS: 92.60.Ry, 92.70.Aa, 92.70.-j, 92.70.Qr, 94.20.wq, 96.50.Wx, 96.60.Q, 96.60.qd, 96.60.-j, 96.60.Ub

1. INTRODUCTION
It was largely believed that global warming is caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but recently the Core
Writing Team of 4-th IPCC [1] considers some natural processes, including solar ones, as a potential cause for part
of the global warming. However, recently another large group of distinguished scientists disputed man-made global
warming claims [2]. The real situation might be somewhere in between. It reopens the debate on how much of the
global warming is produced by natural and how much by anthropogenic factors. In order to solve this task it is
necessary to assess precisely the potential natural causes of climatic changes. The most important such cause is solar
variability, which can affect the climate by various direct and indirect mechanisms.
We live in greenhouse gases (GHG) but to estimate their influence over the climate system it is necessary to
know the natural climatic changes due to solar variations, because the Sun heats the Earth and therefore solar
variations provide the primary variations in the climate forcing. They produce a very strong climatic response. It is
useful to recognize the Sun as a variable, multiwavelength emitter which may be capable of significant modulation
of terrestrial atmospheric dynamics (i.e., climate) through more than one of diverse physical coupling channels.
The fundamental source of all energy in the climate system is the Sun, and therefore variation in solar output
provides a means for radiative forcing of climate change. Now its contribution to the global change receives
growing recognition. It is only since the late 1970s, however, and the advent of space-borne measurements of total
solar irradiance (TSI), that it has been clear that the solar constant does, in fact, vary with the solar rotation and
the 11- year solar cycle [3]. Before this discovery solar irradiance was considered to be constant, therefore Sun was
not considered as a potential source capable to change the climate. Tendency to such simplification at considering of
the sources of climate changes decreases gradually, but still exist especially amongst ecologist community.
The C. George Marshall Institute report concludes that the most important natural climatic driver is the intensity
of solar radiation reaching the Earth, which is determined by changes in the Sun itself and that ...the Sun has been
the controlling influence on climate in the last 100 years, with the greenhouse effect playing a smaller role [46].
Solar change might significantly alter climate. It might trigger several climate feedbacks and alter the GHG
(H2O, CO2, CH4, etc.) concentration [7]. Solar part of the forcing alone would account for 71% of the global mean
temperature variance, compared to 51% for the greenhouse gases part alone [8]. The sum of both forcing factors is
122% thus suggesting that a part of the greenhouse gases emission is resulting from solar variations. Increased solar
irradiance warms Earth's oceans, which then triggers the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere (CO2 is less soluble in water at higher temperature). Therefore in Ref. [2] is stated that the common

Space Plasma Physics

AIP Conf. Proc. 1551, 179-188 (2013); doi: 10.1063/1.4818867
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view that man's industrial activity is a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a misinterpretation of
cause and effect relations.
Another possible coupling mechanism of increasing of the production of CO2 by increasing of solar irradiance is
through dissolving of carbonate rocks by organic acids [9, 10] which has been heavily underestimated and might be
the major source of the variations of the atmospheric CO2 recorded in the polar ice cores as demonstrated by the
work of a large international program [11]. Production of the organic acids is determined by variations of the solar
irradiance affecting photosynthesis and thermal decomposition of the soil, which is heated by solar radiation [10
13].
In addition to the growing number of scientists expressing skepticism, an abundance of recent skeptical peerreviewed studies has cast considerable doubt about man-made global warming fears. Soon [14] found that Longterm climate change is driven by solar insolation changes, from both orbital variations and intrinsic solar magnetic
and luminosity variations... US Senate Report [2] states that the IPCC scenario underestimates the role of natural
variability by proclaiming CO2 to be the only reasonable source of additional energy in the planetary balance.
Long-term variations in the intensity of solar energy reaching the Earth are believed to cause climate change on
geological time-scales. New studies indicate that changes in the Suns magnetic field may be responsible for shorterterm changes in climate, including much of the climate of the 20th century. While the climate system is complex, it
is certain that any change in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth will have an effect on climate [4].

FIGURE 1. Changes in the Suns magnetism represented by changes in the length of the Hale polarity or 22-year cycle
compared to the reconstructed northern hemispheres land temperature [15].

Changes in the Suns magnetism and in the reconstructed northern hemispheres land temperature are highly
correlated over the last 240 years (Fig. 1). The Suns magnetic changes are associated with changes in its total
energy output, and may explain the close connection to terrestrial temperatures.
Earths surface temperature corresponds with the increase in solar radiation (Fig. 2).

FIGURE 2. Solar variability and surface temperature compared are the 11-year running mean of the sunspot number with global
average sea-surface temperature anomalies [16].

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A melting ice cap on Mars suggests that it is experiencing global warming, but without a greenhouse. These
parallel global warmings observed simultaneously on Mars and on Earth are considered as a straight-line
consequence of the effect of the change in solar irradiance [2].
Board on Global Change, National Research Council [17] found that solar variations directly force the global
surface temperature and modify the ozone and the structure of the middle atmosphere.
Short-time variations of the amount of interplanetary dust around the Sun are observed by Shopov et al. [18] at
solar eclipses. Shopov et al. [19] have also demonstrated that the amount of interplanetary dust between the Sun and
the Earth including that in the solar dust corona can vary fast enough to affect the recent climate change, but so far
there are no quantitative studies of this potential influence. There are no evidences that changes in the structure of
the solar corona can affect Earths climate [20].
Variations of solar irradiance have been small during the period of direct satellite observations [21], but can be
much bigger during geological periods of time [10, 22, 23]. Air transparency can be modulated by cosmic rays [24]
or by periodic variations of accretion of interplanetary dust produced by orbital inclination variations [25, 26].
Crowley [27] estimated that over the last 1000 yrs as much as 4164% of pre-anthropogenic decadal-scale
temperature variations have occurred due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Volcanic eruptions strongly
affect the transparency of the atmosphere for up to 23 years, but their appearance is non-periodic and cannot
be predicted. Therefore, they are not a subject of this study. Here we consider solar irradiance as potential driving
force of the Earths climate. For quantitative correlation, it is thus necessary to use experimentally determined records
of solar insolation. Speleothem luminescence is still the only proxy producing such records for long spans of time. The
luminescence solar index represents solar radiation variations at the Earth's surface, so it is the most appropriate
solar proxy for study of the connection between Earth's climate and solar activity. In this study, we use such records
to study real variations of past insolation. The aim of this work is to study the influence of the variations of the TSI
on the climate change.

2. EXPERIMENTAL METHODS
The luminescence of calcite speleothems precipitated in vadose (air-filled) caves depends exponentially on soil
temperatures that are determined primarily by solar infrared radiation in the case when the cave is covered only
by grass or on air temperatures when there is forest or bush cover. In the first case, the microzonality of the
luminescence detected in speleothems can be used as an indirect Solar Insolation index, and in the second as a
paleotemperature proxy. So, in terms of the dependence on cave site conditions we may speak about solar-sensitive
and temperature-sensitive paleoluminescence speleothem records as in tree ring records, but in our case records it
may depend entirely on temperature or on solar irradiation [28, 29].
The best samples for preparation of high-resolution paleoclimatic records are speleothems, which are secondary
cave formations (stalagmites, stalactites, etc.) that may grow continuously for hundreds of thousands of years, preserving
in their layers records of changes in different environmental parameters. Once formed, the majority remains
undisturbed and unchanged over geological time spans. Suitable speleothems are solid and with extremely pure
mineral composition (sometimes they are composed of just one single crystal). This allows reading of the records at
microscopic scales to achieve extremely high resolution, not yet obtainable from any other paleoclimatic terrestrial
archives. They are also datable by many independent absolute dating methods, unlike most other paleoclimatic archives.
This ensures the greater reliability and precision of the records obtained [30].
Sampling is conducted along the growth axis of a speleothem. Laser luminescence microzonal analysis uses high optical
magnification, allowing a sampling resolution of less than a day in some instances [31]. Such resolution raises the question
is there such rapid real variation in the infiltrating solutions which precipitate the calcite? How great is the time lag in
speleothem records?
The time it takes for a molecule of water to pass through the system is its flow-through time, which can be
measured by dye tracing. For example, Bottrell and Atkinson [32] placed fluorescent dyes at several sites at the base of
the soil above a cave in the Pennine karst in England. The dyes traversed the 4590 m thick vadose zone and were
detected in the cave quite rapidly, sometimes within 24 h. Such rapid transport of fulvic and humic acids by the rain
waters could be responsible for the monthly variations observed in the speleothem luminescence of Cold Water Cave
(Iowa) samples by Shopov et al. [31]. Longer-residence stored components of the flow will be responsible for longerterm variations in the speleothem luminescence. At Cold Water Cave there is ~6 m of ancient till above the
limestone. This may delay some components of the speleothem drip water for several years, but others might pass
through via blocky fracturing in a few hours. The cave passage itself is quite quickly responsive to heavy rains
(i.e., drips increase in amount within 24 h). A luminescence record from the same speleothem from Cold Water

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Cave, which is studied also in this paper, demonstrated high correlation (R2 = 0.90) with the Solar Irradiance
index obtained from direct observations since 1700 AD, with no detectable delay between the two records
[28]. This demonstrated that there was no delay longer than 3.8yrs (the time step of the correlated record) between
formation of the luminescent compounds and their incorporation into this particular stalagmite.
Van Beynen et al. [33] found very strong seasonal variations of concentration in the fulvic and humic acids
in dripping waters forming stalagmites in Marengo Cave, Indiana, allowing them to separate spring, summer,
fall and winter waters from each other. This suggests that there must be seasonal variations in luminescence of
these stalagmites which are produced by measured fulvic and humic acids. Van Beynen et al. [34] described dye trace
flow times of 4, 19 and 24 h from soils to sites of modern calcite deposition in this cave.
In this work, we use experimental luminescent speleothem proxy records of the insolation. Used instruments and
their characteristics are described in Shopov et al. [31].

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1. Past variations of the solar irradiance and their influence on climate
Sonett [35] found that a cycle with a period of about 900 yrs has intensity 57 times higher than that of the wellknown centennial cycle in the 14C solar proxy record. Stuiver and Braziunas [36] calculated MEM spectra of the same
record and claimed that Changes occur in the Sun's convective zone with a fundamental oscillatory mode of about 420 yr
period and that centennial and sub-centennial cycles are about one-twentieth of the strength of this 420-yr cycle.
Although the uncertainty of the proportion between intensities of different cycles in the spectra calculated by these
authors cannot be estimated, they suggest that longer solar cycles are stronger than the solar cycles detected by direct
measurements.
The 11 500-yr cycle was found previously to be the most intensive cycle in the 14C calibration record and was
interpreted to be of geomagnetic origin [37]. Our recent studies suggest that this is a solar cycle modulating the
geomagnetic field. Stoykova et al. [13] determined the solar origin of cycles with durations of 11 500, 4400, 3950,
2770, 2500, 2090, 1960, 1670, 1460, 1280, 1195, 1145, 1034, 935, 835, 750 and 610 yrs. This was achieved by their
detection in proxy records of speleothem luminescence [10], 14C [37] and the intensity of the geomagnetic dipole
measured by [38]. The main variations in the last two records are known to be produced by the solar wind. The most
powerful non-orbital cycle of 11 500 yrs is as powerful as the 23 000-yr orbital cycle in the studied record, so this
solar luminosity cycle can produce climatic variations with intensity comparable to that of the orbital variations [23].
Solar Cycles in CWC
0.05

lg(I)

0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Cycle (Years)

FIGURE 3. Real- Space Periodogramme of the luminescent insolation proxy record from Cold Water Cave, Iowa, US with
resolution of 3.78 px/yr.

Here we used Real-Space periodogramme analysis to compare the intensity of the cycles of speleothem
luminescence (representing cycles of solar radiation or air temperature) in a high-resolution record from Cold
Water Cave, Iowa, USA. Obtained result (Figs. 3 and 4) demonstrates that the solar cycle of about 420 yrs has
intensity 3 times lower than this of the 2000-yr one. Known century solar cycle is even weaker than 420-yr one (Fig. 4).

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Solar Cycles in CWC

0.05

lg(I)

0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Cycle (Years)

FIGURE 4. Short cycles presented in the Real-Space periodogramme of the luminescent insolation proxy record from Fig. 3.

We used Real-Space periodogramme analysis to calculate the intensity of cycles of speleothem luminescence
(representing temperature cycles) in a high-resolution composite record from Savi Cave (Fig. 5) near Trieste, Italy
[39], and a speleothem from Rats Nest Cave, Alberta (Fig. 6) [40]. The power spectra on Fig. 5 demonstrate that
the strongest cycles of soil temperature in the region are with durations of about 11, 22 and 70 years. Qian and
Zhu [41] found quasi-70-year climatic oscillations in the East Asia monsoon.

FIGURE 5. Intensity of cycles (in relative units) in a high-resolution composite luminescence soil or air temperature proxy
record. Original record SV1 from Savi Cave near Trieste, Italy used to calculate this periodogramme consists of 40106 data
points compiled of 16 overlapping scans covering the last 2028100 years. Its time step varies from 15.6 days to 19.9 days [39].

The Real-Space periodogrammes demonstrate that these speleothems recorded cycles of the soil temperature
with durations of about 11 and 22 yrs (Figs. 5 and 6). The same cycles are detected also in speleothem proxy
records of paleo-air temperature. Paulsen et al. [42] used wavelet analysis to detect cycles of 33, 22, 11, 9.6 and 7.2
yrs in a 1270-yr high-resolution 18O and 18C record from China. The 11-yr solar cycle produces variations of the
solar constant with amplitude of less than 0.4% [21]. Cosmic rays influence on the atmospheric transparency
provides a mechanism of strong multiplication of solar variations on the solar radiation at the Earth's surface.
Luminescence of speleothems from the Rats Nest Cave, Alberta, reproduces paleo-air temperatures [28], but
records from this cave exhibit a strong cycle of 425 yrs (Fig. 6), which is an important solar cycle [36]. This cycle
probably modulates air temperature in addition to the cosmic rays flux recorded by 14C variations. The same
records also contain centennial and bi-centennial solar cycles
We studied a speleothem luminescence record from in Rats Nest Cave, Alberta, Canada [28, 40] and
demonstrated that this luminescence speleothem records is temperature-sensitive and represents a quantitative
proxy record of the air temperature at the cave site. They correlated this record with the meteorological record from

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the near Banff station, Alberta, Canada and calibrated it in real temperature in degrees Celsius. Here we used RealSpace periodogramme analysis to compare the intensity of the cycles in this record. We obtained same cycles of the
past temperature (Fig. 6) as these in the luminescent insolation proxy record (Fig. 4). Not only duration of these
cycles is equal (in the frames of the experimental error), but even their relative intensities are quite similar in both
solar and temperature proxy record. This fact suggests that considered solar cycles with duration from a century to
450 years might strongly affect Earths climate not only on global scales but even in local locations.

Lg(I) [R.U.]

0.2

0.1

0
0

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Years
FIGURE 6. Cycles of paleotemperature in Rats Nest Cave, Alberta, Canada, in relative units.

Presence of 22 and 11 year solar cycles in the paleotemperature record from Rats Nest Cave, Alberta, Canada
suggests that variation of the solar constant with amplitude of less than 0.4% can produce measurable variation of
the air temperature. It might be result of the cosmic ray or other amplification mechanism.
In fact the 11-year solar sunspot cycle consists of a bunch of discrete sub-cycles with duration from 7 to 17 years
from solar cycle maximum to the next maximum. To illustrate this property of the 11-year solar sunspot cycle we
calculated a Real-Space periodogramme of the entire annual Wolf numbers record for the last 310 years using the
same code as the one used to calculate periodogrammes on Figs. 36. So obtained results are fully comparable and
demonstrate similar structures of the obtained 11-year solar cycle in all periodogrammes of the luminescent proxy
records (Figs. 36) and Wolf numbers (Fig. 7).
30

Wolf number

25
20
15
10
5
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Cycle (years)

FIGURE 7. Intensity of cycles of the annual Wolf numbers. This periodogramme demonstrates strong splitting of the 11-year
cycle into discrete sub-cycles.

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3.2. Potential amplification mechanisms of multiplication of solar irradiance impact on

climate
Atmospheric circulation dramatically masks solar impact on climate, especially at short time scales. It is one of
the main reasons for the popular belief that there is no solar impact on climate. Recent studies suggest that such
impact exists [43] and it is far stronger than expected from the small variations of the solar irradiance, but it is better
visible in long time series of sea surface temperature (Fig. 2) and global land temperature (Fig. 1).
Stott et al. [44] states that current climate models underestimate the observed climate response to solar forcing
over the twentieth century as a whole, indicating that the climate system has a greater sensitivity to solar forcing
than do models. Taking into account that the amplitude of the total variation of the solar constant over the twentieth
century was only 3.9 W m2 (0.28% of the solar constant) [45] and even only 1.6 W m2 accordingly [46] it is evident
that there are one or more mechanisms of non-linear amplification of the solar impact on the climate. Such
mechanism is still not established.
About 54% of the decadal- and longer-scale variations of the 11-year running mean record of the annual-mean,
worldwide-averaged land temperature taken from NASA GISS database over the last 100 years can be optimally
attributed to intrinsic total solar irradiance change, and 38% to effects of increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases
(GHGs), leaving a small 8% unexplained variation [8, 47]. But the inferred solar radiative forcing change (slightly
less than 1 W m2 0.5% of the total solar irradiance [48, 49], converted into forcing at the top of atmosphere) is
significantly smaller than the estimated global forcing of 2.4 +/ 0.4 W m2 resulting from the increases of the
anthropogenic GHG concentrations over the last 100 years [50]. There is thus an inconsistency between weak solar
radiative forcing and large climatic response. However, there are several ways in which this discrepancy might be
resolved.
First, it might be argued that the solar radiative forcing of about 1 W m2 and the response of 0.27 C (54% of the
total observed warming of about 0.5 C) are consistent with the IPCC range of climate sensitivity. However, a
different sensitivity would be necessary to reconcile the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of 2.4 W m2 with the
response of 0.19 C (38% of 0.5 C), so the seeming contradiction reappears.
A second way to resolve this contradiction would be to invoke other, as yet undetermined, radiative forcing
negatively correlated with GHG forcing. One example is an incomplete accounting of aerosols in the radiative
budget of the climate system.
A third type of resolution is possible if the Sun-climate connection were viewed through the perspective of
climate dynamics, in which the simple thermodynamics of direct radiative heating of the terrestrial atmosphere and
surface is not the sole mechanism capable of yielding significant responses.
So this third type of resolution may be subdivided into (a) purely internal natural variability; and (b) mechanisms
involving the external triggering of internally-determined climate shifts, or external forcing amplified by internal
feedback mechanisms.
Subtype (a) would invoke the possibility of purely internal natural climatic variability that might correlate by
coincidence with solar variability. Alternatively, a robust mechanism that can serve to trigger or amplify (or both,
i.e., resolution subtype (3b) the response to changes in the external solar radiative or corpuscular (or both) forcing
would also resolve this inconsistency between weak solar forcing and large climate response. Tinsley [51] and Soon
et al. [52] suggest additional, possible modulation mechanisms related to effects of solar and cosmic-ray charged
particles.
There are several examples of feedback mechanisms in subtype (b) of the third category of resolutions of the
discrepancy. Promising coupling mechanisms include solar UV forcing change [53, 54] and stratospheric ozone
change (see, e.g., Refs. [55, 56]), both of which have been shown to be capable of amplifying solar irradiance
forcing by modulation of both the amount and distribution of upward-propagating planetary waves which then cause
significant changes to the circulation patterns of the low and middle atmospheres [57].
A link between cosmic rays intensity and cloud cover has been discovered by Ohring and Clapp [58] and proven
by comprehensive measurements [24]. Cosmic rays may serve as nucleation centers for condensation of the water in
the clouds [24]. The galactic cosmic rays flux at the Earth is strongly modulated by the solar wind [59]. Stronger
solar wind produces a lower cosmic rays flux and may result in less cloud cover. Solar luminosity variations correlate with the solar wind strength. The weaker cloud cover produces higher sky transparency and higher solar
insolation at the Earth's surface, and vice versa. The cosmic rays-cloud cover mechanism may thus multiply the
impacts of solar irradiance variation on the insolation at the Earth's surface. Therefore, this effect should
produce a strong positive correlation between the solar activity (especially solar irradiance variations) and global
temperatures. In many cases this is observed despite the very small variations of solar irradiance [60].

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Svensmark and Friis-Christensen [24] measured variations in the cloud cover of 3% during an average 11-yr
solar cycle and estimated that this caused variation of the insolation of 0.81.7 W m2. Such variation is able to
produce significant climatic variation.
The integrated sky transparency may vary with up to 25% between clearest and cloudiest days [61], but if
integrated over 1 yr this variation is less than 0.65% from year to year if a normal distribution of sunny days is
assumed. In fact, even lower variations should be expected. This suggests that cosmic rays modulation of the climate
can be more significant during short periods, especially those produced by the solar rotation [62, 63].
However, none of these mechanisms has been generally accepted as adequate to resolve the Sun-climate
inconsistency, because of a lack of either theoretical proof of robustness or empirical studies resolving the effects of
individual mechanisms. At this time, it remains possible that climatic change caused by solar variability is
modulated mainly by only one of these mechanisms, by a combination of more than one of them, or by mechanisms
still not identified.

4. CONCLUSION
Variations of the solar irradiation can produce climatic variations owing to:
1. Powerful prolonged solar cycles, which affect the climatic variations;
2. Amplification of solar irradiance impact on climate by cosmic rays changing the transparency of the air, by
another mechanism or by a combination of more than one mechanism. Such amplification is important at durations
shorter than 11 years but can be more significant in timescales less than 1 year.

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