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Brief Introduction to

Earned Value Management (EVM)

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1

Outline

Introduction to the basic rationale and elements of EVM


Issues of actually implementing an EVM tracking scheme
Background materials

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The Problem
A successful program manager says: We completed the project
we promised to deliver in the time we promised and with the
budget we asked for.
The standard source of information about the status of the
project is the status of the budget, which only tells you how
quickly and how completely you are spending the money you
have.
What you really want to track is how quickly and how
completely you are accomplishing the work you promised to do.
(under)
Budget
The coupling of money spent to work done
Variance
or schedule consumed is loose and nonlinear.
Also, the expenditure track is a
(behind)
(ahead)
Schedule
one-dimensional projection of a
Variance
two-dimensional problem.
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(over)

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Why You Need to Know Both


Cost and Schedule Variances
Project A is in good shape, under budget and ahead of schedule.
Project B is over budget, but if we realize (under) Budget
Variance
it is ahead of schedule, we can
slow the effort to save money.
D
A
Project Ds cost variance looks
(behind)
better than As, but if we
(ahead)
Schedule
realize it is behind schedule,
Variance
we can spend more to catch up.
Project C looks just like B if we
C
B
only look at the cost variance, but
we cant slow down to save money.
(over)
And it looks just like D if we only look at
schedule, but we cant spend more to catch up. Its time to rescope!
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So What Do We Have to Work With?


1. DEFINE THE WORK AND ORGANIZE TEAMS

CONTRACT BUDGET BASE


MANAGEMENT RESERVE (MR)

3. ALLOCATE BUDGETS
100
40

Each chunk of work


corresponds to a
chunk of budget and
a chunk of schedule.

BA
SE
LI
NE

2. SCHEDULE THE WORK

60
15
25

TIME

30
30

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The Basic Idea


For each chunk of work, define its value as the budget
assigned to it.
When you complete that chunk of work, you have earned its
value.
The total earned value to date gives you a point on the ($,time)
graph the Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP).
You could compare this to the actual amount of work that you
were supposed to have completed by this point in the schedule,
as measured by its budgeted cost the Budgeted Cost of Work
Scheduled (BCWS), another point on the ($,time) graph.
You could also compare it to the actual amount spent to
complete the chunks of work done to date the Actual Cost of
Work Performed (ACWP), a third point on the ($,time) graph.
Look at what information these comparisons give about the
status of the project.
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Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled


(BCWS)

Month 1
BCWS = $1,000

Month 4
BCWS = $1,000

Month 2
BCWS = $1,000

Month 3
BCWS = $1,000

Total Budget = $5,000


to be spent over 5 months
We plan to deploy 1 stand
each month at an estimated
cost of $1,000.
BCWS each month = $1,000

Month 5
BCWS = $1,000

Each
Eachdollar
dollarof
ofBCWS
BCWSrepresents
representsaaspecific
specificdollar
dollarof
ofwork
work
scope.
scope.BCWS
BCWSis
isaggregated
aggregatedand
andsummed
summedas
asthe
theperformance
performance
measurement
measurementbaseline.
baseline.
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Budgeted Cost of Work Performed


(BCWP)

Were at the end of the


second month, but only
1 stand is complete.
Value of work performed
= $1,000

You
Youearn
earnvalue
valuethe
thesame
sameway
way
as
asititwas
wasbudgeted
budgetedin
inthe
thebaseline.
baseline.

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BUDGET BASED

Schedule Variance
(SV)

BC WS
BC WP

Of the work we scheduled to have done,


how much did we budget for it to cost?
Of the work we actually performed,
how much did we budget for it to cost?

SCHEDULE
SCHEDULEVARIANCE
VARIANCEisisthe
thedifference
differencebetween
betweenwork
workscheduled
scheduled
and
andwork
workperformed
performed(expressed
(expressedininterms
termsof
ofbudget
budgetdollars)
dollars)

formula:
formula:

SV
SV$$==BCWP
BCWP--BCWS
BCWS

example:
example:

SV
SV==BCWP
BCWP--BCWS
BCWS==$1,000
$1,000--$2,000
$2,000
SV=
SV= -$1,000
-$1,000 (negative
(negative==behind
behindschedule)
schedule)

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Schedule Variance
(SV)

5,000

BCWS
the baseline

sv

BCWP
earned value

TIME

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5 months

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10

Actual Cost of Work Performed


(ACWP)

Labor came to $1,300,


and materials cost
$1,100. That first stand
cost $2,400!

actual
actualexpenditures
expendituresvs.
vs.budget
budget

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BC WP
AC WP

PERFORMANCE BASED

Cost Variance
(CV)

Of the work we actually performed,


how much did we budget for it to cost?
Of the work we actually performed,
how much did it actually cost?

COST
COSTVARIANCE
VARIANCEisisthe
thedifference
differencebetween
betweenbudgeted
budgetedcost
cost
and
andactual
actualcost
cost

formula:
formula:

CV
CV$$==BCWP
BCWP--ACWP
ACWP

example:
example:

CV
CV==BCWP
BCWP--ACWP
ACWP==$1,000
$1,000--$2,400
$2,400
CV=
CV= -$1,400
-$1,400 (negative
(negative==cost
costoverrun)
overrun)

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Cost Variance
(CV)

5,000

ACWP
actual cost

cv

BCWP
earned value

TIME

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5 months

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Note That We Can Isolate


Schedule and Cost Variances

5,000

BCWS
ACWP

cv
sv

BCWP

TIME

schedule variance = BCWP - BCWS = negative number


cost variance
= BCWP - ACWP = negative number
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5 months

behind
behindschedule,
schedule,
over
overcost
cost
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Where are the significant problems?

By tracking and sorting on variances, we


can isolate the troublesome WBS
WBS
DESCRIPTION
Proj Ofcr %Comp %Spent
elements.

sorted by CV ($)
CPI

CV

Zepka

28.99

34.09

0.850

Tideman

34.63

41.03

33.67

36.11

Price

85.04

Troop

35.40

Brown
Price

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CV % VAC VAC

-187.2

0.844

-130.8 -18.49

-87.0

0.932

-45.2

-7.26

-36.8

94.35

0.901

-26.4

-10.95

0.0

37.08

0.955

-24.2

-4.75

-24.8

45.70

48.51

0.942

-17.4

-6.16

-3.2

71.62

75.23

0.952

-17.4

-5.03

-30.8

MANAGEMENT DATA Simmons

84.18

98.10

0.858

-13.2

-16.54

-16.0

SENSORS

Smith

20.87

21.49

0.971

-10.6

-2.94

-21.6

Blair

17.87

18.90

0.945

-7.8

-5.78

-6.2

Hall

60.82

61.66

0.986

-5.6

-1.38

-2.0

Novak

38.51

52.80

0.729

-4.6

-37.10

0.0

0.00

0.00

439.2

3600

PCC

3200

COMMUNICATIONS

G&A

GEN & ADMIN

2200

SYS ENGINEERING

3800

I&A

2100

PROJ MANAGEMENT

2300

FUNC INTEGRA

5200

3100

10 4000

SPARES

11 6200

SYSTEM TEST

12 5100

ENG DATA

13 MR

MGT RESERVE

14 UB

UNDIST BUDGET

0.0
0.0

15 COM COST OF MONEY

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CV

-296.2 -17.62

0.0
Troop

41.13

41.13

1.000

Smart

100.00

98.02

1.020

COMP PROGRAMS

Pino

46.46

44.66

1.040

20 6300

PCC TEST

Bond

23.13

22.64

1.021

21 3400

ADPE

Zepka

41.89

39.79

22 3300

AUX EQUIP

Tideman

27.57

24.33

16 3700

DATA DISPLAY

17 OV

OVERHEAD

18 6100

TEST FACILITIES

19 3500

0.0
0.0
0.00

2.0

1.98

0.0

3.4

3.87

-1.4

4.2

2.10

0.0

1.053

12.6

5.02

4.6

1.133

78.2

11.73

8.4

0.0
0.0

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0.0
0.0

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Performance Indices

GOOD

We can also get a sense of the overall performance


of the project by tracking performance indices.

1.2

COST
COSTPERF
PERFINDEX
INDEX(CPI)
(CPI) == BCWP
BCWP
ACWP
ACWP

1.1

SCHED
SCHEDPERF
PERFINDEX
INDEX(SPI)
(SPI)== BCWP
BCWP
BCWS
BCWS
TIME

BAD

1.0

CPI

.9
SPI
.8

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Budget at Completion
(BAC)
The most important markers of the overall
performance of the project look at
predictions of the variances at the end.
These require several quantities, the first
being the Budget at Completion.

sum of all BCWS =

BAC
$5,000
$5,000

$
$
$
$

$
$
$

time
When
Whenall
allwork
workhas
hasbeen
beenphased,
phased,the
thecumulative
cumulativeBCWS
BCWS==BAC
BAC
e.g.,
e.g., $5,000
$5,000==$5,000
$5,000
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What will be the final cost?


Estimate at Completion (EAC)
defined as actual cost to date + estimated cost of work remaining
usually develop comprehensive EAC at least annually
reported by WBS in cost performance report

should examine on monthly basis


consider the following in EAC generation:

performance to date
impact of approved corrective action plans
known/anticipated downstream problems
best estimate of the cost to complete remaining work

also called latest revised estimate (LRE), indicated final cost, etc.

ACWP + ETC = EAC


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Getting the Estimate at Completion

Just a few little glitches.


We should be able to do
the complete job.ack
lets see, for about $7,500

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Determining EAC via Statistics


Common EAC Formulae:
EAC = BAC/CPI
= ACWPcum + Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining
CPI3
= ACWPcum + Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining
.8(CPI) +.2(SPI)
= ACWPcum + Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining

CPI * SPI
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Other methods of EAC calculation

Grass Roots or formal EAC


detailed build-up from the lowest level detail
hours, rates, bill of material, etc.
Average of statistical formulae
Show range of EACs (optimistic, most probable,
pessimistic)
Complete schedule risk analysis for remaining work,
estimate work remaining

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Variance at Completion
(VAC)

B AC

what the total job is supposed


to cost

E AC

what the total job is expected


to cost

VARIANCE
VARIANCEAT
ATCOMPLETION
COMPLETIONisisthe
thedifference
differencebetween
betweenwhat
whatthe
thetotal
total

job
jobisissupposed
supposedto
tocost
costand
andwhat
whatthe
thetotal
totaljob
jobisisnow
nowexpected
expectedto
tocost.
cost.

FORMULA:
FORMULA:

VAC
VAC==BAC
BAC--EAC
EAC

Example:
Example:

VAC
VAC==$5,000
$5,000--$7,500
$7,500
VAC
VAC==--$2,500
$2,500 (negative
(negative==overrun)
overrun)

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Variance at Completion
(VAC)
VAC = Budget at Completion - Estimate at Completion
= BAC - EAC
EAC
VAC

BAC

TIME
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VAC is Particularly Important


for Government Contracts

Variance at Completion vs. Contractor Loss


Positive VAC:
EAC < BAC

underrun

contractor gain

share area
overrun

contractor partial loss


contractor loss (100%)

Negative VAC:
EAC > BAC
EAC > ceiling

Government develops top level EAC for comparison


Government will limit progress payments if EAC is greater than
ceiling
Government needs forecast of fund requirements
May still have time to change the final outcome
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Probably the Biggest


Selling Point for EVM

A survey of over 800 military programs showed that no program


ever improved performance better than the following EAC
calculation:

EAC = BAC/CPI,
at the

15%-complete point in the program.

Thus, there is strong empirical evidence that EVM translates early


information into essential guidance for program re-baselining.

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EVM Analyses
There are a wide variety of indicators to play with in EVM.
Term

Symbol

Formula

Checklist Actions

% Done

BCWP
BAC

Ratio of work accomplished in terms of the total amount of work to do.

CPI or PF

BCWP
ACWP

Ratio of work accomplished against money spent (an efficiency rating: Work
Done for Resources Expended)

To Complete
Performance Index
or Verification Factor

TCPI or VF

BAC - BCWP
EAC - ACWP

Ratio of work remaining against money remaining (Efficiency which must be


achieved to complete the remaining work with the expected remaining money)

Schedule Performance Index

SPI

BCWP
BCWS

Schedule Correlation

SC or S/C

PCUM
SV

Percent Complete

Cost Performance Index


or Performance Factor

1)
Independent Estimate
At Completion

IEAC

Average Performance

PCUM

Average Expected
Performance To Finish

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P TO GO

Ratio of work accomplished against what should have been done (Efficiency
Rating: Work done as compared to what should have been done)
Ratio of Schedule Variance (SV) in terms of average amount of work
accomplished (in weeks or months). It indicates a correlation to program true
schedule condition

BAC
PF

2)
BAC - BCWP
ACWP +
.8CPI + .2SPI

Calculation of a projected Estimate At Completion to compare with the CAM's


Estimate At Completion:
1) Ration of total work to be done against experienced cost efficiency
2) Sunk costs added to a ratio of remaining work against weighted cost and
schedule efficiencies

BCWPcum
Duration (wks or mos)
Since ACWP Began

Average rate at which work has been accomplished since work began

BCWPcum
Duration (wks or mos)
From Time Now to
Manager's Stated
Completion Date

Average rate at which work must be accomplished in the future to finish on the
date the CAM has forecasted for completion of the work.

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EVM Analyses
There are a wide variety of analytic techniques to play with in EVM.

Sort on significant variances


eliminate almost complete, just starting, etc.
Graph and analyze trends
Look at comparative data
e.g. cumulative performance vs. projected performance
Examine written analysis by contractor
does it answer why?
adequacy of corrective action plans
Analysis of schedule trends, critical path
Analysis of EAC realism

what
whatare
arethe
thedrivers?
drivers?
what
whatcan
canwe
wedo
doabout
aboutthem?
them?

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Graphical EVM Analyses


Percent of Dollars

MEGA HERZ ELEC & VEN Cost/Schedule Variance


F04695-86-C-0050 MOH-2 RDPR FPI POP: 01 MAR 1992 - 15 SEP 1993
1992
1993
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN

30.0

Overall cost and schedule trend

20.0
10.0
0%

0.0

-6%
-7%

-10.0

-11%

-20.0
-30.0
BCWS
BCWP
ACWP
CV
SV

1.4
1.4
1.5
-0.1
-0.0

Dollars In Millions
2.2
2.5
4.2
5.6
2.2
2.7
3.8
5.3
2.2
3.0
4.2
5.6
0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3
-0.0
0.2 -0.4 -0.3

7.3
6.9
7.3
-0.5
-0.4

PMB: 20.4
% COMP: 32.9
MR: 0.4
KTR MR LRE: 0.0
COST VARIANCE
CURRENT FUNDING: 10.0
SCHEDULE VARIANCE
PO EPC: 24.0
PROJ FUNDING: 23.0

EAC realism

At Completion
KTR
PO
20.8
20.8
20.8
20.8
20.8
23.0
0.0
-2.2

MEGA HERZ ELEC & VEN F04695-86-C-0050 RDPR FPI


Estimates at Completion

Element: 3600

PO MR LRE: 0.0
AS OF: JAN 93
OPR: MR B. TECH
PROGRAM: Mohawk Vehicle

Dollars In Millions

0.3
0.6
1.0
0.2
0.5
0.9
0.2
0.5
0.9
0.0 -0.0 -0.0
-0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Cost Drivers, Cause

8.0

Name: PCC

1992
APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

1993
JAN

5.1
5.4
5.1

5.1
5.4
5.7

5.1
5.4
5.9

5.1
5.4
6.0

5.1
5.5
6.3

5.1
5.5
5.8

5.1
5.5
6.5

5.5
5.7
7.6

5.5
5.7
6.8

5.8
6.0
6.8

7.0

graphs
graphsshow
showoverall
overalltrend...
trend...
are
areyou
yougetting
gettingbetter,
better,
or
orworse?
worse?

6.0

5.0
BAC
LRE
CUM CPI

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Example: Using Performance Efficiencies (1)

Will the contractor come in on budget?


COST PERFORMANCE INDEX:
CPI = cost efficiency for work performed to date
(The value of work accomplished for each dollar spent)

BCWP
ACWP

WORK
ACCOMPLISHED
=
ACTUALS

$1000
$2400 = .42
HISTORY

Compare the CPI to the TCPI-BAC:


TCPI(BAC) = Efficiency necessary to complete on budget
WORK
BAC-BCWP
REMAINING
=
=
=
$5000 - $1000
BAC-ACWP
BUDGET
$5000 - $2400
REMAINING
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FUTURE
=

$4000
$2600

= 1.54

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Example: Using Performance Efficiencies (2)

SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE INDEX:


SPI = schedule efficiency with which work has been accomplished
(The rate at which work is being accomplished)

BCWP
BCWS

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WORK
ACCOMPLISHED
WORK
SCHEDULED

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$1000
$2000

= .50

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Example: Using Performance Efficiencies (3)

IS THE CONTRACTOR'S EAC (LRE) REASONABLE?


Compare the CPI to the TCPI-LRE
TCPI(LRE) = Efficiency necessary to complete at the contractors estimate

= BAC-BCWP =
LRE-ACWP

WORK
REMAINING
ESTIMATE
REMAINING

$5000 - $1000
$6400 - $2400

= $4000 = 1.00
$4000

reasonable?

Cumulative performance to date (CPI)

.42

Contractor has been performing at 42% efficiency, but expects to


complete remaining work at 100% efficiency!

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Outline

Introduction to the basic rationale and elements of EVM


Issues of actually implementing an EVM tracking scheme
Background materials

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Getting at the Value

SOFTWARE
INTEGRATION
PROGRAM

SELECTED
PSWBS
ELEMENTS

Product
Development

SELECTED
REPORTING
ELEMENTS

Ada
Products

CWBS
EXTENSION
FUNCTIONAL
ORGANIZATION

CPCI #1
MOS

Marketing

VP/GM

Engineering

Ada
Applications

Software
Engineering

Control
Account

Ada
Study

Ada
Conversion

CPCI #2
MOLE

CPCI #3
MAC

Control
Account

Control
Account

Master
Planning

Software
Tools

Standards

Ada
Approach

Control Account

D
A
T
A

Control
Account

Secure
Systems

Work
Packages
Operations

Hardware
Engineering

LAN
Applications

Control
Account

W
B
S

Control
Account

Responsibility Matrix

BCWS
BCWP
ACWP
BAC
EAC

Planning
Packages

S
U
M
M
A
R
I
Z
A
T
I
O
N

OBS DATA SUMMARIZATION

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Control Account Elements


Work Packages

Planning Packages

Detailed, short-span tasks, or

Future work that has not been

material items, required to

detail planned as work packages.

accomplish the CA objectives,

They are always scheduled to

typically in the near term

occur in the future.

Work Packages

Planning Packages

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Task 1
Task 2
Task 3
Task 4
Task 5
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Work Packages
have budgets
and schedules.

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Work Packages
Development of Control Account Plans
MAY break down the control account budget into smaller work
packages
CONTROL ACCOUNT PLAN

Work Package

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Work Pkg #1
Work Pkg #2

subset of control account


Work Pkg #3
reasonably short in duration
single element of cost (e.g., labor)
single technique for earning value
consistent with detail schedules
has same characteristics as control account
scope of work
milestone completion criteria
single performing organization
start and end dates
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$
$

$
$

$
$

35
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Work Package Characteristics

Work packages are discrete and measurable.


Work packages yield products or accomplishments, such as
design drawing package
conduct design review
install stand

Often done in rolling wave


detailed plans made for near term work packages
planning packages are for future work and are not detailed
CAMs periodically plan another increment of work packages

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Ways of Earning Value


Should be a quantitative and discrete way to measure the work
Discrete
physical, tangible end product

Apportioned
discrete, dependent on another discrete work package
example: quality assurance
planned as historical estimating factor (e.g., 7%)

Level of Effort

no tangible end product


basis of measurement: time
when clock starts ticking, you automatically accumulate earned value
no schedule variance
example: management personnel

May tie in with success criteria or technical measure


e.g., successful completion of a specific test, reliability growth curve
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Methods for Assigning Earned Value

Method

How Value is Earned

0/100

no EV at opening, 100% EV at close of WP

50/50

50% EV at opening, 50% EV at close of WP

Units Completed

same budget value for identical units

Equivalent Units

planned unit standards, allows partial credit

Weighted Milestone

each milestone weighted based on planned


resources
ideal to have a milestone each month

Percent Complete

subjective (least desirable)

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Suggested for LWA


0/50/100 measurement
Typical work package length is 80 hours.
Work package status is reported at status meetings, held every
two weeks.
May just be that 50% of work packages are reported at weekly
status meetings.

EV is 0% (of budget for work package) if it has not yet been


started, or is only now starting.
EV is 50% if work is underway.
EV is 100% if work is complete.
If work package is at 50% two status meetings in a row, it is
flagged as a potential issue.
Avoids subjectivity of % done; compromises on granularity of
tracking, frequency of reporting
Puts the onus on doing the WPs right, up front.
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Outline

Introduction to the basic rationale and elements of EVM


Issues of actually implementing an EVM tracking scheme
Background materials

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A Spectrum of Implementation

Commercial or Defense
Small
Companies

Where

Government
Organic

Larger Companies

Major
Defense
Contractors

Foreign
Countries

When

as desired

corporate
policy,
enterprise
wide

DoD Non-Major
Contracts

FFP
contracts?

DoD Major
Contracts

(>12 months)

<$6M*

>$6M

>$70M RDT&E
>$300M Prod

streamlined,
no paper?

Reports

Core EV Principles

tailored to
needs

C/SSR

Tailored Applications

CPR

ANSI/EIA-748-1998

(32 criteria)

*with judgment

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Earned Value Management:


History
1959 PERT and PERT/Cost
Milestone Charts And Rate-of-Expenditure
Curves
Dollars Spent Vs Estimates Of Percent
Complete (DD 1097)
1963 Earned Value Concept (MINUTEMAN)
1964 Cost Accomplishment Concept (TITAN III)
1966 AFCost/schedule Planning And Control
Specification (C/SPCS)
1967 DODCost/Schedule Control Systems
Criteria (C/SCSC) (DODI 7000.2)
1972 DOD-Revised DODI 7000.2 and Issued the
Joint Implementation Guide (JIG)
1972 NASA Marshall Space Flight CenterC/SPC
1975 DOEPerformance Measurement System
(PMS)
1976 DODRevised the C/SCSC JIG
1980 DODRevised the C/SCSC JIG
1982 National Security AgencyEarned Value
1983 NASAGoddard Space Flight CenterPMS
1984 FAA & NASA Lewis Research CenterPMS

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1985 NASA Johnson Space Flight CenterPMS


1987 DODRevised DOD C/SCSC JIG
1988 NASA Marshall SFCRevised PMS
(MMI 8020.7C, 44 Criteria)
1989 Australian DODDODI 7000.2
1990 Canadian DODPMS
1991 DODI 5000.2 replaces DODI 7000.2
1992 National Oceanic And Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)PMS
1993 Swedish FMVC/SCSC
1994 Internal Revenue Service (IRS)C/SCSC
1994 Federal Bureau Of Investigation (FBI)
C/SCSC
1996 DODR 5000.2-R replaces DODI 5000.2
C/SCSC revised from 35 to 32 criteria
1996 Revised JIGRenamed Earned Value
Management Implementation Guide (EVMIG)
1997 EVMIG Revised
1998 MIL-STD 881B replaced by MIL HDBK 881

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EVM Resources

Books
; Earned Value
Quentin W. Fleming & Joel M. Koppleman
; Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria
Quentin W. Fleming
; Project Performance Measurement
Robert R. Kemps
; Visualizing Project Management
Kevin Forsberg, Ph.D., Hal Mooz and
Howard Cotterman
Software

; Dekker TRAKKER
Dekker Ltd.
Contact: Ron Barry (909) 384-9000
Web: http://www.dtrakker.com

; Artemis Views
Artemis Management Systems
Contact: Patrick Perugini (303) 581-3102
Web: http://www.artemispm.com
; Cobra
Welcom Software
Contact: Diana Melton (281) 558-0514
Web: http://www.wst.com

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Software [continued]

; MicroFrame Project Manager (MPM)


MicroFrame Technologies, Inc.
Contact: Carl Amacker (415) 616-4000
Web: http://www.microframe.com
Internet
; Project Management Institute
http://www.pmi.org
; US DoD Earned Value
http://www.acq.osd.mil/pm
; Earned Value Bibliography
http://www.uwf.edu/~dchriste/evbib.html

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