Unit 3: Earthquake Prediction and Mitigation

Aftershock (2010)

1976 M7.8 Tangshan, China Earthquake

Official death toll of 240,000 dead maybe many more

Why casualties may have been 500,000 or greater

Population of Tangshan >5 million in 1976.
Earthquake occurred at 3:00 am when most
people were asleep inside buildings.
Took two days before outside help arrived.
No foreign assistance allowed by Chairman Mao.
China has a history of minimizing official casualty
rates for political reasons.

M7.0 January 12, 2010 Haiti Earthquake

316,000 people killed

M7.0 January 12, 2010 Haiti Earthquake

Over 1 million homeless

Aftermath of the 2010 Haiti earthquake

The 1976 Tangshan and 2010 Haiti earthquakes

were deadliest earthquakes in the past century

Earthquake prediction

The Great Los Angeles Earthquake (1990)

Only fools, charlatans, and liars predict earthquakes,

Charles Richter
The state of earthquake prediction
The chaotic nature of
earthquake prediction
can be demonstrated
by a 50 year old game

Our best chance of predicting an earthquake may come

from identifying a reliable precursor: an observation that
indicates an earthquake is about to occur

Many precursors have been documented, but none are

followed by earthquakes more than 10% of the time

Very sensitive measurements

show no motion on faults just
before earthquakes
(very frustrating)

Creep, strain, and GPS

measurements before and
after the 2004 M6 Parkfield, CA
earthquake

Foreshocks
Some big earthquakes are preceded
by a swarm of smaller earthquakes

Most are not

Italy sent seismologist to jail for not

predicting the 2009 M6.3 L'Aquila
earthquake based on foreshock
occurrence (their conviction was
eventually overturned)

Water level changes

Depth to water
table near the site
of the 2011 M5.8
Virginia earthquake

Jumping fish and strange lights in the sky

Aftershock (2010)

Earthquake lights?

During a 1966 swarm of quakes

near Matsushiro, Japan. This
luminosity lasted 90 seconds.

30 minutes before the 2008

Wenchuan, China earthquake

Mans best friend

A Tale of Mari and Three Puppies (2007)

Quiz 5
1. Why are earthquakes so difficult to predict?
(a) Because no precursors work more than ~10% of
the time.
(b) Because we dont know if the breaking of an
asperity will lead to a small earthquake or a big
one.
(c) Because we dont know how much stress about
the strength or loading of faults.
(d) All of the above

All is not hopeless

Earthquakes tend to
occur where they have
occurred before
We can often determine
the time since the last
earthquake
Earthquakes have
approximate repeat
times (e.g. 150-300 or
500-1000 years)
We can use this
information to estimate
earthquake probabilities

Trenching

Earthquake (1974)

Digging trenches across

faults that expose past
fault slip enables an
understanding historic
earthquakes

A seismic gap is a segment

of an active fault that has
not ruptured as recently as
its neighboring segments

The 2010 M8.8 Chile earthquake

occurred in a seismic gap
(and was thus expected)

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Unfortunately the past is not always

an indicator of the future:
Despite a 1400 year old
earthquake record, the magnitude
of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake was
completely unexpected

Quiz 5
2. What is a seismic gap?
(a) When earthquakes do not have a consistent
repeat time.
(b) When earthquakes do not lead to seismic
waves.
(c) When a segment of an active fault has not
ruptured as recently as its neighboring
segments.
(d) A fault segment that never ruptures.

GPS measured surface velocities enabled us to

forecast the 2010 Haiti earthquake

Slip deficit
rate

7 mm/yr
12 mm/yr

Knowing the slip deficit rate and the time since the last
earthquake enabled us to forecast up to a M7.2 earthquake on
the Enriquillo Fault in southern Haiti

! Slip deficit rate on the

Enriquillo fault = 6 mm/yr
! Last major earthquake = 250
years
! Accumulated slip deficit:
6 mm/yr x 250 yr = 1.5 m of
slip
! 1.5 m of slip corresponds to
~M7.2 earthquake
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We forecast the potential for

a M7.2 earthquake in
southern Haiti in 2008
A M7.0 earthquake occurred
in that region in 2010

Quiz 5
3. How can GPS measurements be used to forecast
where and how big an earthquake may occur?
(a) By showing how a slip deficit is building on a fault
(b) By recording a sudden increase in surface
deformation just before an earthquake
(c) By measuring a rise in water pressure
(d) All of the above

No correlation between the biggest and deadliest earthquakes

Deadliest
Earthquakes

Biggest
Earthquakes
Largest stress
build-up
Longest faults
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If only we could only stop an earthquake by propping up the crust

Superman (1978)

If only we could only stop an earthquake with nuclear bombs

10.5 (2004)

We cant stop earthquakes, but we can

minimize the death and destruction that result
Educate the public about earthquake hazards

Do not build near active faults,

especially on loose soils
Build earthquake resistant structures
Develop earthquake early warning systems

If you live in an earthquake prone region, a good practice

is to bolt dressers and cabinets to the walls

A Tale of Mari and Three Puppies (2007)

Beware of aftershocks

A Tale of Mari and Three Puppies (2007)

Aftershocks are smaller

earthquakes that occur
after a mainshock due to
continued instability along
the fault place

First month of aftershocks

following the 2011 Tohoku
earthquake

What to do during an earthquake

If indoors (but not in a third-world country)
Drop to the ground; take cover.
Stay away from glass and anything that could fall.
Use a doorway for shelter if you know it is a strongly supported,
loadbearing doorway.
Stay inside until shaking stops.
DO NOT use the elevators.
If indoors (in a third-world country)
Get out of the building as fast as possible
If outdoors
Stay outdoors.
Move away from buildings, streetlights, and utility wires. The
greatest danger exists directly outside buildings, at exits, and
alongside exterior walls.

Why you should not go outside during an Earthquake

Earthquake (1974)

Why you should not use the

elevator during an earthquake

Earthquake (1974)

In case of an earthquake,
always use the stairs

The Great Los Angeles Earthquake (1990)

Why you should get under a desk

The Great Los Angeles Earthquake (1990)

Quiz 5
4. During an earthquake you should try and get out
of the building only if:
(a) You have time
(b) You feel strong shaking
(c) There are no desks to hide under
(d) You are in a poor country with bad building
practices

1976 M7.8 Tangshan, China Earthquake

(Probably lasted 40-50 seconds, not 4 minutes)

Aftershock (2010)

Once surface waves arrive, poorly

constructed buildings fall fast

2011 M6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake

Once surface waves arrive, poorly

constructed buildings fall fast

2009 M6.3 L'Aquila, Italy earthquake

Can you spot the earthquake resistant building?

Aftershock: Earthquake in New York (1999)

Building practices can

determine who lives
and who dies
2008 M8.3 Wenchuan,
China Earthquake left
90,000 dead.
Over 7,000 inadequately
engineered schools
collapsed.
Chinese citizens have
since invented the catch
phrase tofu-dregs
schoolhouses to mock
both the quality and
quantity of these inferior
constructions.

Diagonal beams provide needed

resistance to lateral motion

US Geological
Survey Building,
Menlo Park, CA

Earthquake resistant buildings

Earth Sciences Building,
University of Tokyo

Office building,
San Francisco

Even simple corner studs can greatly

improve earthquake stability

Concrete floors are incredibly heavy and can cause

a building to collapse during an earthquake

2005 M7.6 Kashmir earthquake

Building a house on stilts, on a hillside, in

earthquake country, is not a good idea

Earthquake (1974)

Removal of ground floor walls weaken a

building where strength is most needed

1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta, California earthquake

Too many windows can weaken a building too

Quiz 6
1. Why are diagonal beams or corner studs so important
for buildings to be resistant to earthquakes?
(a) They provide extra weight
(b) They increase the amount of deformation the
building experiences
(c) The provide shear support
(d) All of the above

Buildings can fall over during an earthquake

if not properly anchored

An apartment building fell over in Concepcion, Chile

during the 2010 M8.8 Chilean earthquake

Can the Space Needle be knocked over by an earthquake?

10.5 (2004)

The Space Needle is anchored by a strong foundation

30 ft deep, 120 ft across and filled with 467 truck load of concrete
Weighs 5850 tons, including 250 tons of reinforcing steel, which is
about the same as the above-ground structure (center of gravity
is just 5 ft above ground level).
The structure is bolted to the foundation with 72 bolts, each 30 feet
long.

Center of Mass

Buildings can also fall over due to liquefaction, which turns strong
sediments into fluids during earthquake shaking

Solution

1964 M7.5 Niigata earthquake, Japan

Could too much swaying cause a bridge to collapse?

10.5 (2004)

The collapse of the Tacoma Narrows bridge

in 1940 from wind induced forced resonance

Forced resonance: When the frequency of external

forces matches the natural frequency of a structure

Forced Resonance

Forced resonance as demonstrated by

Captain Jack Sparrow

Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End (2007)

Forced resonance sways buildings during

the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake
Why did these buildings not sway more?

Approaches to reducing the swaying of buildings

Isolation
systems

Damping
systems

Quiz 6
5. Good building practices for earthquake resistant
structures include:
(a) Avoidance of using heavy concrete flooring
(b) Adding corner studs to increase shear strength
between floors and walls
(c) Use of damping systems
(d) All of the above

Earthquake Early Warning System

Concept: Seismic waves travel slower than the speed of light.
Therefore, one can detect an earthquake and
communicate a warning ahead of the shaking.

Earthquake
clock

What can you do with 10 seconds?

Quiz 6
6. How does an earthquake early warning system work?
(a) Uses foreshocks to predict earthquakes a few
days before they occur.
(b) When a building begins to shake an alarm sounds.
(c) When an earthquake is detected at a seismic
station, a warning is sent out to the surrounding
regions before shaking arrives.
(d) An earthquake sensitive dog barks and howls.

Typical Haiti GPS Setup

Haitian
colleague
(Macly)
Secure
roof site
Solar
panel
GPS
receiver

Computer
and
battery

What is it like to conduct GPS field work in Haiti?

Fieldwork in Haiti