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HARISHA.B.V.
AIP(FINANCE AND CONTROL)
IIM BANGALORE
Harisha.B.V.AIP(finance & control)
IIMB
MODULE 2
Module 2
Foreign exchange markets
Functions
Participants
Currency derivatives
interest rate futures
Speculations.
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Contribution of volume
Cross border exchanges of goods and services
account for a very small proportion .
The large volume will be from capital account .
As banks usually aim to maintain square or near
square positions, a lot of turnover is simple
attributable to banks offsetting their positions.
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speculators
There is no distinct class of speculators in
the foreign exchange market.
Price making banks often carry uncovered
positions to profit from exchange rate
movements.
A non financial corporations which does not
hedge its foreign currency export receivable
or import payable is as much a speculator.
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SWIFT
Society for World wide Interbank Financial
Telecommunication.
This is non profit Belgian co operative with main
and regional centers around the world connected
by data transmission lines.
When bank deals through brokers,they transmit
their buy and sell orders to a broker who shows
them to the market without revealing the identities
of the parties.
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Types of transactions
The day on which transfers are effected is
called the settlement date or the value date.
The three types of market or transactions
are
Spot
Forward
Swap.( a combination of spot and forward)
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Example
Arbitrage
Arbitrage in finance refers to a set of
transactions, selling and buying or lending
or borrowing the same asset or equivalent
groups of assets ,to profit from price
discrepancies within a market or across
markets.
Equivalent here means having identical cash
flows and risk characteristics.
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Example
Bank A is quoting
GBP/USD 1.4550/1.4560
Bank B is quoting
GBP/USD 1.4538/1.4548
Here there is a possibility of arbitrage
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Example 2
Bank A
GBP/ USD 1.4550/1.4560
Bank B
GBP/USD 1.4545/1.4555
Here there is no arbitrage possibilities.
What is its implications?
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CROSS RATES
Example
GBP/USD ; 1.6545/1.6552
EUR/USD: 1.3655/1.3665
WHAT IS GBP/EUR?
GBP/EUR bid = (GBP/USD) bid * (USD/EUR)bid
GBP/EUR ask = (GBP/USD) ask * (USD/EUR)ask
Triangular Arbitrage
Spot Rate 50 Rs = 1$
Interest rate in India 8%
Interest rate in US is 12.5%
One year forward rate is 48 RS.
Golden rule
Example
Spot rate RS 42.0010 = $ 1
6 month forward rate : RS 42.8020
Annualized interest rate on 6 month
rupee=12%
Annualized interest rate on 6 month dollar =
8%
Calculate the arbitrage possibilities
assuming 1000 $ as investment.
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PROBLEM
Derivatives
A derivative is a two party contract whose value is
derived from the value of an underlying asset.
The underlying asset may be Index, stock,
currency, interest rate, commodity.
In finance derivatives means a financial product
which has been derived from a market .
It has no independent existence.
Types of derivatives
Futures (Forwards)
Options
Swaps ?
Derivatives products
MARKET
USED
CREATED PRODUCTS
Uses of Derivatives
To hedge or insure risks; i.e., shift risk.
To reflect a view on the future direction of the
Currency future
At a glance a currency future like a forward
contract is a contract for future delivery.
A currency future is the price of a particular
currency for settlement at a specified future date.
The two popular future exchanges are the
Singapore international Monetary Exchange
(SIMEX) and International Money Market
(Chicago, IMM).
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CURRENCY:
MISCELLANEOUS
PRODUCTS
System of Margins
Initial margin : When position is opened
Variation Margin: Settlement of daily gains and losses
Maintenance Margin : Minimum balance in margin account.
Balance falls below this, margin call issued. If not met,
position liquidated.
Regulators specify minimum margins between clearing
members and clearinghouse. Margins at other levels
negotiated
Margins can be deposited in cash or specified securities such
as T-bills. Interest on securities continues to accrue to owner.
Margin is a performance bond.
Levels of margins may be changed if volatility increases.
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System of Margins
With clearing house guarantee, buyer-seller need not
worry about each others creditworthiness.
Standardized contracts with margin system increase
liquidity.
Default Risk:
Forwards
Borne by Clearinghouse
Borne by Counter-Parties
Standardized
Negotiable
Agreed on at Time
of Trade Then,
Marked-to-Market
Agreed on at Time
of Trade. Payment at
Contract Termination
Where to Trade:
Standardized
Negotiable
When to Trade:
Standardized
Negotiable
Clearinghouse Makes it
Easy to Exit Commitment
Standardized
Negotiable
Standardized
Negotiable
Required
Collateral is negotiable
What to Trade:
The Forward/Futures
Price
Liquidity Risk:
Margin
Typical Holding Pd.
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& control) Delivery takes place
Offset
prior to delivery
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F =Se
(rrf )T
F0 =Se
0
( r rf ) T
Hedging Fundamentals
Hedging with futures/forwards typically involves taking a position in a futures
market that is opposite the position already held in a cash market.
A Short (or selling) Hedge: Occurs when a firm holds a long cash position and
then sells futures/forward contracts for protection against downward price exposure
in the cash market.
A Long (or buying) Hedge: Occurs when a firm holds a short cash position and
then buys futures/forward contracts for protection against upward price exposure in
the cash market. Also known as an anticipatory hedge.
A Cross Hedge: Occurs when the asset underlying the futures/forward contract
differs from the product in the cash position.
Firms can hold long and shortHarisha.B.V.AIP(finance
hedges simultaneously
(but for different price risks).
& control)
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Options Terminology
The two parties to an option contract are the
option buyer and the option seller also called
option writer
Call Option: A call option gives the option
buyer the right to purchase a currency Y against
a currency X at a stated price Y/X, on or before
a stated date.
Put Option: A put option gives the option buyer
the right to sell a currency Y against a currency
X at a specified price on or before a specified
date
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Options Terminology
A CALL OPTION
A trader buys a call option on US dollar with a strike price of
Rs.46.50 and pays a premium of Rs.1.50. The current spot rate, St,
is Rs.45.50. His gain/loss at time T when the option expires
depends upon the value of the spot rate, ST, at that time :
ST
Gain(+)/Loss(-)
44.5000
-Rs.1.50
45.0000
-Rs.1.50
45.5000
-Rs.1.50
46.0000
-Rs.1.50
46.5000
-Rs.1.50
47.0000
-Rs.1.00
47.5000
-Rs.0.50
48.0000
Rs.0.00
48.5000
+Rs.0.50
49.0000
+Rs.1.00
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49.5000
+Rs.1.50
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PUT OPTION
A trader buys a put option on pound sterling at a strike price of
$1.7500, for a premium of $0.07 per sterling. The spot rate at the
time is $1.7465. At expiry, his gains/losses are as follows :
ST
1.6000
1.6300
1.6500
1.6600
1.6800
1.6900
1.7300
1.7500
1.7700
1.8000
Gain(+)/Loss(-)
+$0.0800
+$0.0500
+$0.0300
+$0.0200
$0.0000
-$0.0100
-$0.0500
-$0.0700
-$0.0700
-$0.0700
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Option Payoff
LONG CALL
LONG PUT
SHORT
CALL
SHORT PUT
Black scholes
C = S N(d1) - E e -rt N(d2)
C = CALL VALUE
r = RISK-FREE RATE
S = CURRENT MARKET PRICE
t = TIME TO EXPIRATION
E = EXERCISE PRICE
N(d) = Cumulative normal probability density function
d1 = {ln(S/E) + (r + 0.5 VAR) t} / {SD * SQRT(t)}
d2 = d1 - {SD * SQRT(t)}
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Computing Volatility
Find the daily return of the stock over a period
Rt = ln(Pt/Pt-1)
rf T
p = Ke
rT
N ( d 1 ) Ke
rT
N ( d 2 ) S 0e
N (d 2 )
rf T
N ( d1 )
ln( S 0 / K ) + ( r r + 2 / 2 )T
f
where d 1 =
T
2
ln( S 0 / K ) + ( r r / 2 )T
f
d2 =
T
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Alternative Formulas
Using
c = e
F0 = S 0 e
rT
(r rf )T
[ F 0 N ( d 1 ) KN ( d 2 )]
p = e rT [ KN ( d 2 ) F 0 N ( d 1 )]
2
d1
ln( F 0 / K ) + T / 2
=
T
= d1
Profit
ST
K1
K2
Profit
K1
K2
ST
Butterfly Spreads
This is an extension of the idea of vertical spreads. Suppose
the current spot rate NZD/USD is 0.6000. The call options with
same expiry date are available :
Strike
Premium
0.58
0.07
0.62
0.03
0.66
0.01
Profit
K1
K2
K3
ST
Profit
K1
K2
K3
ST
Delta
Delta
Theta
Theta () of a derivative (or portfolio of
derivatives) is the rate of change of the value with
respect to the passage of time
The theta of a call or put is usually negative. This
means that, if time passes with the price of the
underlying asset and its volatility remaining the
same, the value of the option declines
Gamma
Gamma () is the rate of change of delta ()
with respect to the price of the underlying
asset
Gamma is greatest for options that are close
to the money
Vega
Vega () is the rate of change of the value
of a derivatives portfolio with respect to
volatility
Vega tends to be greatest for options that
are close to the money
Rho
Rho is the rate of change of the
value of a derivative with respect to
the interest rate
For currency options there are 2
rhos
An Example of an FRA
A firm sells a 5X8 FRA, with a NP of $300MM, and a
contract rate of 5.8% (3-mo. forward LIBOR).
On the settlement date (five months hence), 3 mo.
spot LIBOR is 5.1%.
There are 91 days in the contract period (8-5=3
months), and a year is defined to be 360 days.
Five months hence, the firm receives:
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Source- debousfky
(300,000,000)(0.058-0.051)(91/360)
(300,000,000)(0.058-0.051)(91/360)
(300,000,000)(0.058-0.051)(91/360)
1+[(0.051)(91/360)]
300000000*(.058-.051)(91/360)
1+[(0.051)(91/360)]
1+[(0.051)(91/360)]
1+(.051*91/360)