Addressing the vulnerability of the poor to

climate change : A systemic inquiry

By
Prof. Dr. Shyama V. Ramani

&

Dr. Raja Venkataramani

ICF International

ramani@merit.unu.edu

Raja.Venkataramani@icfi.com

Presentation for the second conference of the cycle of lectures on Economists facing
climate change organized by the The Chaire Dveloppement durable de Sciences Po,
the Chaire Dveloppement durable de l'cole Polytechnique, the Alliance Program, and
Columbia Global Center Paris.
January 15, 2015
1

*All photos/images used have been drawn from the internet. Thanks to all these original contributors.

*Source: Clinton Foundation

Perspective and Content

Our Aim

If I have seen further, it is by

standing on the shoulders of giants.
Isaac Newton

Views of non-experts using:

- Existing economics literature;
- Experiential knowledge;
- Views of a set of poor.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Content:
Setting the stage & our play
Looking at existing knowledge
Talking to the poor
Project Experiences
So what do we have?
3

1. Setting the stage

1.1 Who are the poor?
Globally, about 4 billion people are largely excluded from formal markets. This group,
earning a few Euros a day, comprises the base of the pyramid (BOP) in terms of
income levels.
Annual disposable
income (Purchasing
power parity $)

> $10,000

$1,500 10,000

<$1,500

Population
(millions)

Advanced
markets

500

Emerging
Markets

1,500

Developing
markets

4,000

Underserved
markets

(Hart and Milstein, 1999, Prahalad and Hammond, 2002; Hart and Christensen, 2002; Prahalad and Hart, 2002; )

1.2 What are their lives like?

1.6 billion people lack access to electricity

2.4 billion people use biomass fuels for cooking

2.2 million deaths per year are caused by unsafe drinking water

62% of South Asia does not have access to improved sanitation

2 million children die each year due to largely preventable diseases like
diarrhea and pneumonia.

Hunger is the Number One Cause of Death in the World

UNITED NATIONS MILLENIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS

1.3 The catch-up literature

How this brand of evolutionary economists view development
DEVELOPMENT DILEMMA

Public Labs & universities Scientific capabilities +

Qualified personnel + Social capabilities

Government

Knowledge transfer

Firms = {motivation & absorptive capacity}

Technology
Valley of Death !

Funding

Commercialization of
innovations
6

1.4 Our Innovation for Innovation System Literature

Let us give Nature her due!

Rest of the world

Developing country
Foreign
firms

Private
organizations
Local
firms

Public Labs &

Univs

State
Public
agencies

Ecology

Poor

Civil
Society

Climate change
strategy =
{Mitigation effort;
Adaptation effort}

1.4 Our Innovation for Innovation System Literature

Let us give Nature her due! Isnt it high time we did this?

Rest of the world

Developing country
Foreign
firms

Private
organizations
Local
firms

Public Labs &

Univs

State
Public
agencies

Poor

Civil
Society

1.5a Case study focus: India ..Because of climate past

Farming settlements began around 4000 BC

2002 discovery
500-700 AD?
By 2600 BC, dozens of towns and cities
Michael Danino

2002 discovery
City 9500 BC ?
Michel Danino

Evidence of natural climate change having triggered mass scale

9
emigration and fall of Indian civilizations

1.5b Case study focus: India ..because of climate future

India contains the maximum number of most vulnerable cities10

1.5c Case study focus: India ..because of climate

present
4.4 % GDP Growth rate 2014 last
quarter

1.25 Billion People

33% live in extreme poverty
HDI ranking 135 out of 187 countries
- Social Programs have to cover - 9.2 % tribes, 20%
specific castes and 40.2% Other Backward Class,
- In over 29 states and 7 Union Territories
-with 22 official languages
- with recognition for all of - Hindu, Muslim, Christian,
Sikh, Buddhist and Jain religious holidays

Policy maker

3 Rs = Resource extraction, Rapid Urbanisation, Rising Aspirations

11

1. Setting the stage & our play

2. Looking at existing knowledge

12

2. Looking at existing knowledge

2.1 First articles
Alexander Buchan (meteorologist)
Royal Society of Edinburgh
Bearing of Meteorological Records on a Supposed
Change of Climate in Scotland
In Nature - 1875

WILLIAM J. S. LOCKYER
son of Sir Norman Lockyer, the great
astronomer and astrophysicist
Royal College of London Now Imperial
Does the Indian Climate Change?
In Nature - 1910

2.1 Trends in Knowledge Creation on Climate Change

Climate Change - all subject areas - title/abstract/keyword
16000
14000

No. of Articles

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

Year

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2.2 Knowledge creation on climate change

By scientific disciplines
443 437 240220 10
1081 950 782
1566
756
2318
1700 1316 954 511
489
Economics
2976 2379 2592
5760 3858

53436

6448

Earth and Planetary Sciences

Environmental Science
Agricultural and Biological
Sciences
Social Sciences

6679
Medicine

7096

Engineering

14316

Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology

47688
Energy

33865

Multidisciplinary

Title/Abs/Keyword

2.3 Knowledge leadership in climate change

Climate Change (Title-Abstract-Key word) all subject areas
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
France
Australia
Canada
China
Germany
United Kingdom
United States
EU
0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2.4 Knowledge leadership in climate change

at institutional level
University of Wisconsin Madison
University of Arizona

UC Berkeley
Wageningen University and Research Centre
Met Office
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
University of Oxford

United States Geological Survey

Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule
CNRS Centre National de la Recherche
University of Washington Seattle
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
University of Colorado at Boulder
Chinese Academy of Sciences
0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2.5 Poverty Alleviation in Climate change literature in

social sciences
(Climate Change) & (Climate Change & Poverty in all Social Sciences)
80

3500
3000

70

Number of articles
on climate change

60

2500

50
2000
40
1500
30
1000

20

500
0

10
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Number of articles
covering poverty

Climate Change
Poverty and Climate
Change

2.6 Poverty Alleviation in Climate change literature

Climate change and poverty
120
100

80
60

40
20

2.7 Poverty Alleviation in Climate change literature

Institutional Leadership in climate change and poverty publications
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

2.8 Why arent academics publishing on climate ?

Not enough incentives for promotion

Journal 2010
ABS ranking

Journal Name and Number of Publications

IDS Bulletin

25

Not listed

Global Environmental Change

16

Not listed

Environmental Science and Policy

12

Not listed

Regional Development Dialogue

Not listed

Environment and Urbanization

Not listed

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Ecological Economics

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and

Management

World Development

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the

United States of America

Not listed
3
Not listed
3
Not listed

22

23

2.10 Other challenges at least 4 types

Determinants of adaptation strategies
Ensuring efficient adoption
Measurement of impact of
installation of capital or innovation on
climate change
Measurement of vulnerability of
community
Investment criteria for financing of
projects from climate fund
Poverty alleviation with Climate
mitigation reality or pipe dream?
Global Governance
How to cooperate? How to
coordinate?
24

1. Setting the stage & our play

2. Looking at existing knowledge
3. Talking to the poor

25

3.1 The poor also contribute to climate change

484 Full sized planes
filled with
excrements every
day

This is the daily output of

feacal matter created by
open defecation in India

26

3.2 Focus Group Discussions

Not everybody has experienced climate

change
Not everybody thinks climate change
matters (but most do)
Willingness to adopt adaptation strategy
= function of (preference, immediate
benefit, financial accompaniment)
NO Gender bias noted

Natural ecosystem
-Hotter during
summer

Household

Individual

-Lower harvest

-Health problems -More time when

due to heat
it will be
-Poor health due impossible to go
out more fights
to lack of
at home*.
nutrition

-Erratic rains

-Lesser working
time

-Less water

-Lower income

-More wildfires

-Less net
profit/gains from -Less time when
animal husbandry it will be possible
to work during
-Less water
day
-Even if there are
-Less confidence
still fish who will
about what one
be able to afford
can do in life*
them?

-Animals will
suffer

Community

More poor to feed

Less food with
which to feed
them

Higher
-More poverty
dependence on
-Less learning for imports
children
More recruits for
-School timings
will change*

terrorists*

-More illegal
activities*

Return to cotton
clothes - Khadi
with Bt cotton?*

-More crime and

murder*

3.3 New perspectives on

impact

Nation

Migration*

-More mad stray

dogs*
-More dead cows
and goats
Migration*
28

3.4 Climate Change and the Rural Poor

STATE
Programmes

New
Technology

Market

Public
Laboratories

29

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Setting the stage & our play

Looking at existing knowledge
Talking to the poor
Project Experiences
So what do we have?

30

4.1 Catching up = Building Capabilities

FOR : Sustainable & inclusive development, income generation,
employment with Service Delivery at LOCAL LEVEL
Industrial capabilities

Incentive Systems

Regulatory capabilities

Financial capabilities

Scientific, tech, innovation capabilities

32

4.3 Major Initiatives from 2008 Being Revamped

Purpose: Mitigation and Adaptation

33

4.4 Major Initiatives from 2008 Being Revamped

Purpose: Mitigation and Adaptation in Urban Context

34

4.5 Complexities of Climate Governance

with Poverty Alleviation
Starting conditions = Risk to Livelihoods = (i) Monsoon
dependence; (ii) Long coastal settlements; (iii) Himalayan glacier
based river systems
Processes = Resource extraction, Rapid Urbanisation, Rising
Aspirations
Added stress: Mitigation & Adaptation
Additional stress: Continuity of programs with changing political
powers at Centre & States
Gap between policy design and implementation for effective
outcome
Coordination between diverse state actors
Ready to respond to disasters
Needs strengthening for embedding climate change in development

Capacity Building For management of complex systems

35

4.6 Examples of Diversities

of Challenges in Complex
System
Uttara Khand
Kolkata
Context: Old megapolis
Slum Population: 31%
Risk: Highest at climate risk
Challenge: How to manage
political sensitivities?

Context: Himalayan State

Slum Population: 16%
Risk: Glacial Melting with
more flash floods
Challenge: How to manage
unplanned settlements
along river banks?
Indore
Context: high increase in slum population &
Indian immigrants
Slum Population: 30%
Risk: Increase in ecological vulnerability
while satisfying boom aspirations
Challenge: How to keep climate perspective
in city planning and project implementation?36

37

38

4.9 Ensuring Effective Dialogue and Consensus Building at all levels

Lowering Systemic Risk Effectively

39

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Setting the stage & our play

Looking at existing knowledge
Talking to the poor
Project Experiences
So what do we have?

40

Missing Links for Improved Governance of Complexity Management

Coordination

Cooperation

Where is the carrot with stick please?

Better Coordination does not require More Money or New

41
Technologies

So now its time to do some fast running!

Thank you for your attention!

ramani@merit.unu.edu

Raja.Venkataramani@icfi.com

We would also like to thank: Manka Bajaj, Georgiana Runceanu, Rushva Parihar,
Aditi Paul , Paranjothi Singharavelou and Ajay Thutupalli for their useful inputs.
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