11/14/2014

12.3 Confidence Intervals to Estimate a Population Proportion or Population Percent | STAT 100 - Statistical Concepts and Reasoning

ANGEL

Department of Statistics

Eberly College of Science

STAT 100 - Statistical Concepts and Reasoning

Start Here!
Welcome to STAT 100!
Search Course Materials
Faculty login (PSU Access
Account)

Home // Lesson 12: Designing Studies and Statistical Inference

(Confidence Intervals)

12.3 Confidence Intervals to Estimate a

Population Proportion or Population Percent
Printer-friendly version

Lessons
Lesson 2: Statistics: Benefits,
Risks, and Measurements
Lesson 3: Measurement Data:
Summaries, Displays, and BellShaped Curves
Lesson 4: How to Get a Good
Sample
Lesson 7: Categorical Variables:
Graphs and Relationships
Lesson 8: Measurement
Variables: Graphs and
Relationships
Lesson 9: Probability and
Coincidences
Lesson 12: Designing Studies
and Statistical Inference
(Confidence Intervals)
12.1 Important Terms Used
in Research
12.2 Types of Research
Studies
12.3 Confidence Intervals
to Estimate a Population
Proportion or Population
Percent
12.4 Remaining Topics in
Chapter 5 of Textbook
12.5 Confidence Intervals
to Estimate the Population
Proportion (Percent) for
Two Independent Samples
12.6 Confidence Intervals
That Estimate the
Population Mean
12.7 Example 12.12
Lesson 12 Practice
Questions
Lesson 13: Statistical Inference
(Significance Tests) and
Reading the News
https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat100/node/56

Section 12.3. Chapter 20

Overview:
Chapter 20 covers confidence intervals to estimate a population
proportion or population percent. Even though we learned about
such confidence intervals in previous lessons, we actually did not
learn the best way to calculate a confidence interval to estimate the
population proportion. We will now learn what statisticians use to
calculate a confidence interval to estimate the population
proportion. Before doing so, first remember that proportions and
percents are used to summarize categorical data.
Below is the general formula to estimate a population proportion
with a 95% confidence interval. This formula is labeled
"conservative" because the formula overestimates the margin of
error resulting in a wider interval. We used this formula earlier.
Conservative 95% Confidence Interval Formula to Estimate a
Population Proportion
Sample Proportion (Margin of Error)
where the margin of error =

1
n

This margin of error formula is used with poll results so that people
that have no background in statistics can try to at least partially
understand what is behind the margin of error. Even though this
1/4

11/14/2014

12.3 Confidence Intervals to Estimate a Population Proportion or Population Percent | STAT 100 - Statistical Concepts and Reasoning

formula tends to be conservative, it is based on statistical theory.

Resources
References
Interesting Links
Helpful Resources

Below is the 95% confidence interval formula that is found in

Chapter 20 of your textbook. You should notice that the margin of
error formula is different from the one found in Chapter 4.
95% Confidence Interval Formula to Estimate a Population
Proportion
Sample Proportion (Margin of Error)
where the margin of error = 2 S.E.
2 is multiplier for a 95% Confidence Level
S.E. = Standard Error for sample proportion (will always be
provided). The S.E. here is what the textbook refers also refers
to as the S.E.P. and is derived using the sample proportion
value and sample size.
This confidence interval formula is actually somewhat based on the
results from the empirical rule that were discussed in Lesson 3
(Chapter 8). Remember that the empirical rule says that for any
normal (bell-shaped) curve, approximately:
68% of the values (data) fall within 1 standard deviation or
standard error (we use the S.E. for our Confidence Interval
calculation)
95% of the values (data) fall within 2 standard deviations or
standard errors (we use the S.E. for our Confidence
Interval calculation)
99.7% of the values (data) fall within 3 standard deviations
or standard errors (we use the S.E. for our Confidence
Interval calculation)
Table 12.6 shows commonly used multipliers with confidence
intervals.

Table 12.6. Commonly Used

Multipliers
Multiplier
https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat100/node/56

Level of
2/4

11/14/2014

12.3 Confidence Intervals to Estimate a Population Proportion or Population Percent | STAT 100 - Statistical Concepts and Reasoning

Confidence
3.0

99.7%

2.58 (2.576)

99%

2.0 (more
precisely
1.96)

95%

1.645

90%

1.15

75%

1.0

68%

Because we want a 95% confidence interval, we use a multiplier of

2. We also need a standard error (S.E.) that will quantify the
amount of variation that exists when trying to estimate the
population proportion. The standard error formula does incorporate
the sample size (n) into the calculation. So what you have learned
before about the impact of sample size on the margin of error still
holds true. (Remember you will always be given the value of the
standard error. These calculations will be based on the formula that
is found in Chapter 20).
Example 12.5. Confidence Interval to Estimate the Population
Proportion (Percent)
Suppose a national poll found that 70% of the respondents believe it
is okay to use a handheld cell phone while driving. The poll was
based on a sample size of 1020.
Calculation: Calculate a 95% confidence interval to estimate the
population proportion who believe that it is okay to use a handheld
cell phone while driving. Also include interpretations of both the
margin of error and the confidence interval.
Answer: From the provided information we can find the following:
Sample Percent = 70% (Sample Proportion = .70)
Standard Error (S.E.) = .0143 (calculated using formula in
Chapter 20 - this calculation incorporates the sample size of
1020)
Margin of Error = 2 .0143 = .0286 or 2.86% (Remember 2
is the multiplier for 95%)
https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat100/node/56

3/4

11/14/2014

12.3 Confidence Intervals to Estimate a Population Proportion or Population Percent | STAT 100 - Statistical Concepts and Reasoning

Possible Margin of Error Interpretations (Recall Lesson 4)

The difference between our sample proportion and the true
population proportion will be within .0286, at least 95% of the
time.
The difference between our sample percent and the true
population percent will be within 2.86%, at least 95% of the
time.
95% Confidence Interval to Estimate Population Proportion
Sample Proportion (Margin of Error)
.7 .0286 = (.6714 to .7286) or (67.14 to 72.86) %

Possible Confidence Interval Interpretations

We are 95% confident that the population proportion who
believe that it is okay to use a handheld cell phone while
driving is between .6714 and .7286.
We are 95% confident that the population percent who believe
that it is okay to use a handheld cell phone while driving is
between 67.14% and 72.86%
12.2 Types of Research
Studies

up

12.4 Remaining Topics in

Chapter 5 of Textbook

Printer-friendly version

2014 The Pennsylvania State University. All rights reserved.

https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat100/node/56

4/4