Professional Documents
Culture Documents
3/23/2004
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
y = 0.30x + 4.04
2
7.00
Log of
salary
R = 0.59
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
Log of
capital
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
FOR
ENERGY
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The Challenge
z
z
z
z
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
Control
100%
100%
ate
d
Oil
SQ
UE
EZ
E
SQ
UE
EZ
E
Consumer
Ind
epe
nde
nts
Inte
gr
Resources
0%
Unrestricted Supply
Co
mp
ani
es
SQ
Super Majors
UE
EZ
E
National Oil Companies and Governments
0%
OXFORD INSTITUTE
FOR
ENERGY
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Operational integration
Integrated chain
Lower transaction costs
Financial integration
Ability to fund projects cheaply
Manage cash flows
The difference
Related to funding, rather than to operations
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
3/23/2004
6
ENERGY
Qatar Petroleum
Adnoc
INOC
NIOC
Saudi Aramco
NNPC
Sonatrach
Libya NOC
Pemex
KPC
Pertamina
PDV
BP
Conoco
Chevron
Repsol-YPF
Royal Dutch/Shell
Exxon Mobil
Petrobras
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
-60.0
-80.0
-100.0
Marathon
Nippon Mitsubishi
OXFORD INSTITUTE
FOR
STUDIES
CH
RM
GP
EP
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
3/23/2004
8
ENERGY
Gazprom
Qatar Petroleum
Adnoc
INOC
Sonatrach
Saudi Aramco
Libya NOC
NNPC
NIOC
Lukoil
Pemex
KPC
Pertamina
PDV
PetroChina
Royal Dutch/Shell
Chevron
BP
Yukos
Repsol-YPF
Conoco
Petrobras
Exxon Mobil
Marathon
Sinopec
Nippon Mitsubishi
OXFORD INSTITUTE
FOR
STUDIES
So why disintegrate?
In a perfect world:
Focussed businesses are allegedly better managed
Industry maturity has reduced transaction costs to an
irrelevancy
Investors can construct balanced portfolios for
themselves
3/23/2004
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
Political
issues of access, differing terms, embargos
Institutional
OPEC, cartelisation
Economic
pricing issues, investment
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
10
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
Financial
tax, cost of capital, risk mitigation, default risk, markets
Operational
local monopolies, supply chains, project skills,
reputation
z
Technical
information transfer, cost of information
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
11
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
Upstream Efficiency
FD Costs 1999-2001 ($/boe)
12.00
10.00
Access to opportunities
NHY
8.00
STL
6.00
ENI
REP
BP
TOT
CHV
4.00
XOM
RD/SHEL
2.00
2
R = 0.7975
0.00
0
50
100
150
200
250
3/23/2004
12
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
Taxation
EP contribution to net income (%)
Minimising tax
100%
Cross-border offsets
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
30.0%
R = 0.024
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
13
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
Financial Markets
Access to equity markets
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Pipelines Super-major
Large EP
US
EP
Mid/Small Integrated
EU
Integrated
Refiners
Emerging
Integrated
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
14
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
Cost of Capital
10.0%
9.5%
9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
7.5%
2
R = 0.804
7.0%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
3/23/2004
15
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
Access to Capital
Financing
($Bn)
10
Oil Price
($/Bbl)
30
6
2.6
20
4.9
4
1.3
2.1
15
3.3
1.1
2.6
2.3
0.7
3.5
2.4
1.5
1.0
0.6
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Equity
1998(1)
1998(2)
0.8
10
1999
High Yield
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
16
FOR
ENERGY
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3/23/2004
17
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
Structure Conclusions
z
z
z
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
18
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
3/23/2004
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
20
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
21
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
200
200
210
210
221
221
232
232
243
243
255
255
268
268
1,000
(143)
857
57
5.7%
857
714
571
429
286
143
(143)
(143)
(143)
(143)
(143)
(143)
714
571
429
286
143
0
67
78
89
100
112
125
7.8% 10.9% 15.5% 23.4% 39.3% 87.6%
Economic results:
Opening NPV
0
1,000
931
844
734
599
435
237
Impairment of value
0
(69)
(88)
(110)
(135)
(164)
(198)
(237)
Closing NPV
1,000
931
844
734
599
435
237
0
Profit
131
122
111
97
79
57
31
Economic ROCE (opening)
13.1% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1%
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
22
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
z
z
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
23
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
NOPAT:
Operating Profit (EBIT)
Notional Tax
Net Operating Profit After Tax
1,700
(500)
1,200
250
(200)
50
Accounting NOPAT
Unrealised gains/losses
1,200
50
Adjusted NOPAT
1,250
2,000
500
7,500
10,000
10,000
(4,000)
8,000
14,000
12.0%
Accounting ROCE
Adjusted ROCE
12.0%
8.9%
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
24
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
3/23/2004
25
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
1998
1999
2000
2001 Average
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
26
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
27
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
28
FOR
ENERGY
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13.0%
Downstream
5.7%
Chemicals
4.4%
1.5%
Weighted Average
9.1%
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
29
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES
Profitability Conclusions
z
z
z
OXFORD INSTITUTE
3/23/2004
30
FOR
ENERGY
STUDIES