Class Notes Week 6 -Resource Allocation and Leveling Scheduling with Resources: Critical Path Method: 1.

1. Create Activities 2. Estimate Durations 3. Assign Logic Draw Network Assign Resources 4. Forward Pass 5. Backward Pass 6. Calculate Float and Critical
Path Basic CPM Assumptions Successor activities can begin as soon as predecessor requirements are complete Completion of activities are independent of other concurrent activities There are unlimited resources available to each activity Pure CPM logic is based on
the ability of an activity to start as soon as possible without consideration for the availability of resour Most schedules, however, account for resource availability as a function of the planned sequence of work Break down activities into pieces small enough to complete
with available resources Increase durations to account for multiple concurrent activities that share resources Using logic to displace activities that share or rely on each others resources. Resources are item required to perform a task Labor, materials, equipment,
money, supervision, etc. Limited resources must be managed carefully toensure success on a project Daily resource consumption can be plotted against the project duration to get the Resource Loading Diagram (Histogram) The cumulative resources required can
beplotted against the project duration to get an scurve. Resource Allocation: Resource allocation is the process of assigning limited resources to activities to determine whenactivities can occur based on the resourceavailability Resource allocation may extend the
overallduration of the project Using logic to control resources may work in many cases, but may cause a project to take longer than necessary and will be difficult to manage. Resource Allocation Series Method Create a schedule network using PDM or ADM Perform
CPM network analysis and obtain ES, EF, LS, LF, TF, and FF values for all activities Start from the first activity or activities in the project Started activities are not interrupted Schedule activities to start as soon as their predecessors have been complete and the resource
demands are within the limits Resource Allocation Series Method If more than one activity using a specific limited resource can be scheduled, priority is given to the activity with the earliest late start If the activities are tied for the early late start, give priority to the
activity with the least total float If the activities are tied for total float, give priority to the activity with the largest number of resources If not activity has been selected with the above rules, simply start the activity that occurs first in the input order Resource Allocation
Parallel Method Create a schedule network using PDM or ADM Perform CPM network analysis and obtain ES, EF, LS, LF, TF, and FF values for all activities Start from the first activity or activities in the project Schedule activities to start as soon as their predecessors
have been complete and the resource demands are within the limits If more than one activity using a specific limited resource can be scheduled, priority is given to the activity with the earliest late start Resource Allocation Parallel Method If the activities are tied
for the early late start, give priority to the activity with the least total float If the activities are tied for total float, give priority to the activity with the largest number of resources If the activities are tied for the number of resources, give priority to the activity that has
started If no activity has been selected with the above rules, simply start the activity that occurs first in the input order Resource Allocation The only difference between the series method and parallel method is how to deal with the started activities In the series
method, no interruptions are allowed In the parallel method, interruptions are allowed The assumption that all activities can be interrupted is not always true Resource Leveling Even when there are no limits for resources, it is beneficial to reduce the maximum
demand and establish uniform daily resource requirements There are multiple approaches to leveling resources, but are very complicated by hand Most often the project duration is considered to be fixed, but this is not always the case Resource leveling is most easily
accomplished using computerized scheduling software The Traditional Leveling Approach 1. The resource loaded activity are scheduled based on the early start dates and the daily resource demands are calculated using a resource loading chart 2. An upper limit is
assumed for resource rates 3. The resource demands are then tested dayby-day to determine if they are less or greater than the assumed limit Minimum Moment Method The Minimum Moment Method is a manual solution completed using Improvement Factors (IF)
This method identifies the highest improvement gained in leveling resource based on moving one activity The end result creates a resource loading diagram with fewest resource build-ups It requires many calculations and is not typically used in practice Improvement
Factors General rules: Activities cannot be interrupted Only one activity can be leveled at a time Only one type of resource can be leveled using this process Start by scheduling all activities based on their early dates Calculate daily resource totals in a table
Starting at the end of the schedule, calculate improvement factors (IF) for all activities that have free float IF(A,N) = R (Rv Ro R(N1)) A: Current activity N: Number of days of free float being utilized R: Resources assigned to the current activity Rv: Number of the
resources on the days being vacated by the current activity Ro: Number of the resources on the days being occupied by the current activity N1: Minimum of the days of free float being utilized or the duration of the current activity Activities with improvement factors greater
than 0 should be moved Activities with improvement factors equal to zero should also be moved To make room for other activities Activities with improvement factors less than 0 should not be moved Priority is given to the activity with the highest single improvement
factor The activity is moved back from the early dates the number of days of free float being utilized, N If improvement factors are equal between different activities, priority is given to the activity with the most resources required per day If resources per day are equal,
priority is given to the activity that will use up the most free float If free float usage is equal, priority is given to the activity with the latest start date If all are equal, activities may be selected by input order If improvement factors are equal on the same activity for
different amounts of free float utilized Select the highest value of free float At the end of the process improvement factors should be calculated for all activities with backfloat to see if they should be moved
Forward in the schedule.
Class Notes Week 11- Project Cash Flow and Time-Cost Trade-off Analysis Cash Flow The Cash Flow of the project is the rate at which money is expended and revenues are earned on a project A positive cash flow indicates that current revenues to date exceed
current expenditures to date A negative cash flow indicates that current revenues to date are less than current expenditures to date Time Value of Money The value of a given amount of money decreases over time due to interest and inflation Even if inflation is low,
many contracts operate in the red resulting in high interest payments Conventions for Construction Expenses Labor expenses are paid on a weekly or bi-weekly basis by the contractors Equipment expenses are paid on a monthly basis Equipment can be rented on
a short term basis Leased on a monthly basis Purchased equipment is paid on a monthly basis Materials purchased as needed are paid on delivery If the materials are specialty items, they may require a down payment when the order is executed Materials that are
susceptible to changes in the market may be hedged if the quantities required are high enough on the project and there is sufficient capital Subcontractors are paid according to the payment terms of the subcontract Typically, the subcontract is a pass down of the prime
contract, paid when the contractor is paid Subcontracts enable contractors to pass on and distribute the financial burden to others Other expenses may also exist for insurance, permits, bonds, etc. Payment Conventions Payment schedules dictate how a contractor
will be paid and it is based on the type of contract Unit Price Contracts: Contractors will be paid based on the quantities of installed work Temporary work may not be paid until the final work is installed (e.g. formwork and concrete) Lump Sum Contracts: contractors are
paid based on a negotiated payment schedule called a schedule of values (SOV) The SOV is created after the award of the contract, but before the first payment Other contract types also follow one of these two conventions with minor differences Cost plus, JOC,
Incentive/Disincentive Contractors submit payment applications on a monthly basis for the work completed The Owner reviews the applications and may adjust it if they disagree with the work completed Once agreed upon, the Owner processes the payment, but it
could still be up to a month or longer before the Contractor sees the money The actual payment is less retainage/retention Retainage/Retention is money, generally 5% to 20%, that Owner keeps until after substantial completion is achieved to cover the cost of any
deficient or incomplete work Time-Cost Trade-off Analysis The original duration of a project is generally set by the owner Based on general constructability and their own operational requirements The duration established in the contract is not necessarily the
quickest possible nor will it result in the cheapest performance Contractors create their Construction Plan and Schedule based on: The least costly method for completing individual activities Completion within the timeframe of the Contract Time-Cost Trade-off Analysis
Examples of time vs. cost trade-off Travel from Chicago to Orlando: fly (3-hours) vs. drive (30-hours) Dig a trench: manual (14 days) vs. machine (2 days) Place concrete: one crew (12 days) vs. two crews (8 days) However, choosing the least cost method does not
always result in the least cost to the project Also, choosing the quickest methods does not always result in a time savings to the project Construction Costs Direct Costs These are the costs required to pay for materials, labor, subcontractors, and equipment used to
build the project They can be fixed or variable Highly dependent on the scope of the project and the Construction Plan Indirect Costs These costs are not the result of progress on the project Costs for temporary work, security, field office, overhead, etc. Indirect
costs are often fixed costs Time-Cost Trade-off Analysis Direct costs on a project decrease until a minimal direct cost is reached Indirect costs increase as the project duration increases The total costs is the sum of the direct and indirect costs The point of minimal
total project costs is achieved at the optimum project duration Activity Cost Theory Activity durations and costs are not deterministic Variability in construction makes every installation unique Therefore, durations and costs are based on historical averages The
duration of an activity can be decreased by increasing the production rate The production rate can be reduced in several ways: Increasing resources (crews or crew-size) Using more experienced labor or better equipment Working under optimal conditions This
reduction in duration is not always linear or an even trade Cost is best described by a cost/time curve Time/Cost curve Minimum and maximum durations Must be converted to a piecemeal linear or linear function Slope of the curve is C/ T The slope is the
change in cost per unit time This is used to make least-cost comparisons for crashing schedule networks Time-Cost Trade-off Example A contractor has been hired to install a new steam pipe between two buildings on a college campus. The project can be scheduled
using between 1 and 5 crews Increasing the crews may decrease the project duration Productivity is reduced as the number of crews increases due to limited resources The indirect costs of the project are $1,500 per day Time-Cost Trade-off Example Direct, indirect
and total costs are calculated in the table below for each situation based on the number of crews The costs are plotted vs. the project duration Time-Cost Trade-off Analysis The optimum project duration is 23 days The least total cost is $54.5k Note that this does
not correspond to the least amount of direct costs The optimum number of crews is two Time-Cost Schedule Scenarios All Normal: Individual activities are scheduled based on their least cost method Least Cost: Activities are schedule based on the least total project
cost Least Time: Activities are scheduled to minimize the total duration of the project All Crash: Activities are scheduled based on their respective minimal duration Crashing a Schedule Logically reducing the total duration of a project, crashing the schedule
Schedule activities based on the All Normal scenario Determine the number of days each activity can be crashed Determine the costs/day of crashing each activity Start crashing the activity on the critical path with the least crash costs/day If there are parallel critical
paths, both paths must be
crashed to gain a time savings
Class Notes Week 12 Project Monitoring and Control Project Monitoring and Control Monitoring: recording progress and actual events of a project in the schedule Control: actions taken based on the project monitoring and estimated outcomes To utilize effective
monitoring and control the schedule must be an accurate reflection of the scope of the project and planned means and methods Schedule Definitions Baseline (Target) Schedule: The original schedule as bid by the Contractor at the time the Contract was signed
Accepted by all parties as a feasible approach to completing the project Schedule Updates The baseline schedule updated to include all actual progress to date Includes all changes in project scope, and corrected errors and omissions to activities and logic Monitoring
Progress It is nearly impossible for the progress to exactly match the target schedule Weather impacts Changes in the project Scope Differences in productivity Owner related delays Limited resources Mismanagement In order to implement effective project
controls, it is important to know exactly what happened Delayed projects may result in disputes An accurate schedule update is an essential tool in determining causation and responsibility Progress is entered into the schedule on a frequent basis up to the data date
The data date is the point to which all progress is known The status of activities can be categorized as not started, in-progress, or completed Activities that are in-progress are assigned a completion percentage based on their physical progress The scope of the activity
may dictate how progress is measured Example: activities with significant prep time may be 50% complete before 50% of the final product is installed The remaining incomplete work on the project is rescheduled after the data date Steps to Updating the Schedule
Establish a baseline (target) schedule Update the data date Step 1 - Record actual progress, reschedule, and save a copy of the project Actual starts, actual finishes, percentages complete, and remaining durations Step 2 - Incorporate change orders (fragnets) to the
project, reschedule, and save a copy Step 3 - Enter other logic and activity changes based on updated plans, reschedule, and save a copy Updating the Schedule Change Orders for additional work are incorporated into the schedule via fragmentary networks (fragnets)
Change orders may also be a deletion of scope or just a change in duration Updating the Schedule Other changes may be based on corrections of errors and omissions, current resource availability, out of sequence work, or preference These changes may include
additional activities, duration changes, resource changes, and logic changes Recording Resource Usage Resource usage is tracked for the four different types: Labor Materials Equipment Cost Data for resource usage can come from a variety of sources: payroll,
invoices, equipment logs, etc. Automatic and electronic data collection is generally preferred It is important to check and verify this information before inputting it into the schedule Junk in = Junk out Tracking Costs Costs are tracked according to total cost or by
resource costs Costs are assembled from labor time sheets, work measurement reports, purchase orders, and other accounting documents For management purposes, costs must be tracked according to their schedule activity Relating the costs to specific activities can
be difficult and time intensive Also, tracking profits and indirect costs add to the complexity Monitoring Progress The progress data being recorded, such as the actual dates, percentages complete, and remaining durations, is referred to as the as-built information
Likewise, the last update showing 100% completion is referred to as the as-built schedule The as-built information and schedule is used for analyzing schedule delays Comparisons between the baseline schedule and update schedules can be made for a quick visual
representation of the projects status More importantly, a comparison of the critical path of each schedule will let you know if the project is on-time, ahead, or delayed Project Controls The first step in implementing project controls is to determine who is responsible for
delays If the Contractor is solely responsible for the delays, it is not likely that an extension will be granted Next, the Contractor must determine if it is beneficial to try and recover the lost time Finally, the Contractor must create a recovery schedule based on their new
approach for completing the project Project Controls Recovery methods: Re-sequencing activities Activities can be completed in parallel May require additional resources Accelerating or crashing activities Adding additional resources to improve production rates
Working overtime, additional shifts, or weekend work Combination of the two Fast tracking Starting a successor activity before the predecessor is complete Start with the cheapest method first, but only if it is less than the potential damages Earned Value Analysis
Tracking the physical progress in a schedule is effective, but alone does not establish the status of a project i.e. 50% complete, but in relation to what? On the other hand, total float on the critical path may tell you how many days ahead or behind the schedule is, but it
does not relate that to any specific progress other than time Earned Value Analysis is the method of using cost, as a measurement of progress, vs. time to determine three primary measures of project performance Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS): The
estimated cumulative costs of work based the original plan Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP): The estimated cumulative costs to date based on the actual work progress Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) The actual cumulative costs to date based on the
actual work progress Schedule Variance (SV): The schedule variance is the difference between the budgete cost of work performed and the budgeted cost of work scheduled SV = BCWP BCWS The schedule variance is a measure of the time status of a project
expressed in cost If SV = 0, the project is on-time If SV > 0, the project is ahead If SV < 0, the project is behind Percent Schedule Variance (%SV): Same as SV only expressed as a percentage of BCWS %SV = SV/BCWS x 100% Cost Variance The cost variance is
the difference between the budgeted cost of work performed and the actual cost of work performed CV = BCWP ACWP The cost variance is a measure of the cost status of a project If CV = 0, the project is on-budget If CV > 0, the project is under budget If CV < 0,
the project is over budget Percent Cost Variance (%CV): Same as CV only expressed as a percentage of BCWP %CV = CV/BCWP x 100% Schedule Performance Index (SPI) This ratio is the direct comparison of work performed vs. work planned based on budgeted cost
SPI = BCWP/BCWS SPI = 1, the project is on-time SPI > 1, the project is ahead SPI < 1, the project is behind Cost Performance Index (CPI) This ratio is the direct comparison of budgeted costs vs. actual costs for work performed CPI = BCWP/ACWP CPI = 1, on
budget CPI > 1, under budget CPI < 1, over budget Budget at Completion (BAC) The estimated total cost for completion of the project Also known as the performance measurement baseline Estimate to Complete (ETC) The estimate of remaining work required for
completion ETC = BAC - BCWP Estimate at Completion (EAC) The sum of the cost of actual work completed and the estimated cost of the remaining work EAC = ACWP + ETC
Class Notes Week 13 Schedule Analysis Schedule Analysis The schedule can be used to identify delays and quantify the impact Time Money The validity of a schedule analysis starts with developing an complete and accurate schedule and consistent unbiased
updatingP Delay According to AACEI Recommended Practices 29R-03, Forensic Schedule Analysis: Delay simply means a state of extended duration of an activity, or a state of an activity not having started or finished on time, relative to its predecessor. Activity Delay
vs. Project Delay Activities can be delayed without delaying the overall project Activities that are critical to a specific part of the work may not be critical to the overall project Delay The three main questions of a delay Who was at fault? How much delay was
experienced? How much did the delay cost? All three questions can be answered by keeping accurate project records and performing a objective schedule analysis The schedule analysis can be performed contemporaneously or retrospectively (after the fact)P
Unavoidable Delays Force Majeure Delays Non-contracted work delays Extreme weather delays Labor issues/strikes Unknown conditions Supply shortages Acts of God Wars Owner caused delays Change Orders Access to worksite Operation
considerations Suspensions of work Delays in owner furnished items Coordination with other Contracts4 Contractor caused delays Late submittals Schedule omissions Mismanagement of resources Quality assurance and rework Insufficient productivity rates
Lack of onsite supervision Avoidable Delays Designer caused delays Design errors and omissions Slow reviews of submittals, RFIs, and change order requests Late implementation of change orders Delays in inspections and tests Designer caused delays are
sometimes difficult to separate from owner caused delays5 Delay Classifications Excusable, non-compensable delay Not the fault of the contractor nor the owner The contractor is provided extra time (time extension), but no additional compensation Sometimes just
called an excusable delay Excusable, compensable The fault of the owner or party contracted by the owner The contractor is provided additional time and money (compensation may be limited by the contract) Non-excusable (inexcusable) The fault of the contractor
No additional time or money May result in liquidated damages Concurrent delay A combination of compensable and non-excusable delays Both the owner and the contractor cause delays at the same time Additional time is granted, but no additional compensation
Pacing Actual Critical Path The actual critical path of a project cannot be determined by any singular schedule The actual critical path must be assembled by tracking the critical activities at time that they occur In a perfect scenario it will be the same as the baseline
schedule, but this is very rare This contemporaneous perspective is the best way of analyzing schedules fairly Hindsight is not always 20/20 Schedule Delay Analysis Types AACEI Taxonomy of Forensic Schedule Analysis (RP 29R-03, 2011) As-Planned vs As-Built
Time Impact Analysis Windows Analysis Impacted As-Planned Collapsed As-Built As-Planned vs. As-Built Simply a comparison between the As-Planned Schedule and the As-Built Schedule Delays in the start and finish of each activity are tracked in addition to the
overall project AACEI RP 29R-03, MIP 3.1 Simplest method of schedule analysis Can be done using a graphical approach or by tabulating the dates and sequences of the activities Does not identify the actual critical path activities Should not be used for large or
complicated networks Apportionment of delay is subjective Comparison can also be made in windows Windows or Time Impact Analysis Windows or Time Impact Analysis uses the AsPlanned Schedule, periodic updates, and the As-Built Schedule to assemble the
actual critical path of the project AACEI RP 29R-03, MIP 3.3, 3.4, and 3.5 Depending on the window this method can take a very long time Very accurate and can be completed on a contemporaneous basis with when the delays occur Basic Steps Progress is added to
the baseline schedule on a daily basis (or window) up through the first update Critical activities are tabulated and delay is apportioned After all progress has been entered up through the first update, the process is repeated between all successive updates Delay can be
measured by comparing when activities occur between updates or by the total float on the last activity Windows or Time Impact Analysis Advantages Widely accepted Determines actual critical path Uses contemporaneous data Good with large and complicated
schedules Disadvantages Requires good schedule updates and as-built data Assumes that schedule was used to manage project Requires expert knowledge and a lot of time to prepare Differences of Methods MIP 3.3, 3.4, and 3.5 are completed with thesame
basic steps The only difference between 3.3 and 3.4 is that a half-step file is created between revisions It is a progressed schedule without the non-progress revisions MIP 3.5 is used when periodic updates are not available Updates are recreated which classifies this
method as a retrospective analysis and not a contemporaneous Impacted As-Planned The impacted as-planned analysis, MIP 3.6, is a foresight method Despite being called a foresight method the impacted as-planned analysis is used retrospectively Impact fragnets
are inserted in the baseline schedule where they occur in relation to other activities to determine overall project delay Advantages Simple to prepare and understand Relies on the original schedule logic Does not require updates or as-built schedules May be adequate
for simple networks if actual progress was similar to planned progress Disadvantages Allows the analyst to subjectively select the delays The analysis is hypothetical in that other progress, or lack there of, is not considered This method is not accepted by the courts
Collapsed As-Built The collapsed as-built schedule analysis, MIP 3.8, is a hindsight method and is always used retrospectively The analysis involves removing impact activities from the As-Built schedule to determine the resulting delay Advantages Based as-built
information Relatively simple to perform and understand May be adequate if all but the impacted activities occurred as-planned Disadvantages Allows for subject selection of delay activities Does not determine the actual critical path Does not consider float at the
time the delay started Does not use contemporaneous information from schedule updates Validity of Results No two methods will produce the same results The same method executed by different analyst may also produce different results To increase accuracy and
validity Document everything you do Change as little as possible Use as many sources of information as possible Stay consistent in your preferences If not sure of which path to choose, try both and compare results Selecting the Right Method AACEI does not
specify that one method is better than the others RP 29R-03 only provides a common language and standard protocols for performing an analysis The scheduler must consider Available information Quality of information Time to complete analysis Complexity of
project and schedule Resemblance of As-Built to As-Planned Others Time Extensions Time extensions to the Contract are granted for excusable delays Extensions can be for the whole project or specific milestones Delay must be on the critical path The Contractor
cannot be at fault The delay could not be reasonably foreseeable at the time the Contract was signed The Contractor must have notified the Owner within a reasonable amount of time If the Contractor seeks compensation, actual damages must be proven
Acceleration When a delay is experienced, both the owner or the contractor may decide to accelerate to avoid damages Contractors may accelerate at any time possible if they are responsible for delay Directed acceleration Owner directs the Contractor to
accelerate for a negotiated cost Constructive acceleration Contractor is delayed at no fault of their own (excusable delay) The Contractor notifies the Owner of the delay and requests a time extension. The time extension is rejected by the Owner and the Contractor is
thereby required to accelerate to finish the job on-time The Contractor actually accelerates and incurs extra costs Schedule Disruption Types of Disruption Out of sequence work Stacking of trades Impact of individual changes or cumulative impact of multiple
changes Inefficiencies caused by different work shifts Actual damages must be proven Burden is on the Contractor Early Completion Schedule A Contractor may plan to finish the project earlier than what is required by the Contract May be a cost savings due to
reduced fixed costs If a Contractor plans to finish early, but is delayed by the Owner, the may be entitled to compensation if: Baseline schedule was reasonable Clearly shown that project was intended to be completed early No exclusions in Contract and Owner was
notified of the intent to finish early Delays must be excusable and compensable Owners received timely notification of the delay Schedule was updated and maintained (used for evidence)
Class Notes Week 14 Short-Interval Schedules and Linear Scheduling Method Short-Interval Schedules Short-Interval schedules are created mainly for Contractor and Sub-Contractor Planning. Greater detail with shorter periods of time Schedules are provided for
progress meetings to coordinate efforts Contains short period ahead and behind current date Short-Interval Schedules Typically presented in a bar-chart format Work day is the largest unit of duration Activities must be discrete (one responsible party, one task, one
location, etc.) Schedules may contain prep and support work not typically included in larger network schedules Intervals may be from 1 week to 8 weeks before and after Other important information may include sub-contractor responsible, crew type, crew size, shift,
equipment required, materials required, and other specifics Information is updated as frequently as it is reported Activities should not be longer than one-week Typically an short-interval schedule will have no more than 50 activities and most times less than 25
However, these activities represent fewer activities in the network schedule Include a reference to the overall project schedule so activities can be tracked easier Linear Scheduling Method Scheduling methods are selected based on the purpose, the audience, and the
type of project Bar charts are simple to understand and track progress CPM networks work well for complex projects and show interdependencies Projects that have a repetitive activities can be best shown by the linear schedule method (LSM) Examples of linear
projects include: road construction, tunneling, high-rise buildings, pipelines, sewers, overhead power and communications, railways, etc. Bar chart schedules would not be able to show interdependencies CPM Schedules would require many activities Linear Scheduling
Method would show interdependencies using minimal activities In a CPM network: Long continuous activities must be split into smaller discrete activities Logic between repetitive activities must sometimes be added between non-dependent items to show planned
sequence Splitting activities and using many unique relationships (SS and FF) with lag values make CPM networks very complicated In a bar chart: Relationships cannot be shown accurately Only show work completed in relationship to time Using the Linear
Scheduling Method (LSM) can overcome some of the challenges faced in other methods LSM was developed from the Line Of Balance (LOB) method used by the Goodyear Tire and Rubber Co. Industrial manufacturing are repetitive and a perfect application of LSM Linear
Scheduling Method LSM is a graphical approach used to plan and track progress of multiple repetitive activities which are completed in series over the duration of the project Linear schedules include three main parts: The vertical axis which represents the units of
measure (progress) The horizontal axis which represents the time, similar to bar charts The activities are lines plotted as lines Linear Scheduling Method The left side of the activity is the start and the right side is the finish The duration of the activity is equal to the
length of the activity projected on the time scale The rate of progress, or productivity, for any activity is the slope of the line at any particular point on the line Rate of progress = R = P/T Rate of Progress Must be calculated for each activity May be constant or
variable Horizontal lines indicate no progress Suspension, delay, support work Activities that occur at one location Vertical lines similar work that occurs at a range of activities What would a negative slope mean? Linear Scheduling Method The progress can be
measured in many units (length, floor, production unit, percentage completion, etc.) However, the unit the progress is measured in must be the same for each activity Multiple units must be converted into one universal unit The rate of productivity of any activity, or part
of an activity, is calculated by R = P1- P0/ T1- T0 (T1- T0) is the time period and (P1 - P0) is the amount of progress The higher the slope, R, the higher the productivity Similar to the first three steps of building a CPM schedule, the steps to create a linear schedule are:
1. Identify activities 2. Determine durations 3. Establish logic Activities are listed in order in which they occur Durations for a linear schedule are based on an expected productivity May be different at different locations depending on conditions Logic in a linear
schedule is a lot simpler than in CPM schedules, but special attention must be placed on space and time interactions between activities Logic is typically not the standard finish-to-start relationship used in CPM How close in time or location can two activities occur? The
final step is to simply draw the diagram as discussed in the previous slides Activities are draw as straight lines, in most cases, even though they are probably curved in reality The time or spatial interaction between activities is call a buffer Buffers in linear scheduling
are similar to leads/lags in CPM scheduling A buffer is the amount of time or space that must exist between two sequential activities Time buffers are measured horizontally between two interrelated activities Space buffers are measured vertically between two
interrelated activities Buffers can be measured at any point along an activity Activities cannot intersect in a linear schedule If a linear schedule were analyzed using CPM, all activities would be considered critical since there is only one path For linear schedules, the
criticality of activities is measured by the amount of the time buffers measured at each activitys start and finish The duration for the overall project is measured horizontally from the start of the first activity to the finish of the last activity as projected on the timescale
Activities with the least rate of progress are more likely to be the critical activities To reduce the project duration, it is most effective to accelerate the critical activities first Production rates can be increased The same activity can sometimes occur simultaneously at
different locations Re-sequence activities to reduce buffers, if possible Start dates are marked on the diagram at 0 progress on the date that the activity starts Progress can also be tracked at any intermediate pointor interval A point is placed at the amount of progress
on the date the progress is recorded Finish dates are marked at 100% completion on the date that the activity finishes The activity line is then drawn between each point to establish the actual rate of progress The project status at any point can be measured in time or
progress In comparison to the planned progress Advantages of Linear Scheduling Method Simpler than CPM to schedule projects with repetitive or continuous tasks Provides more graphical information than a bar chart Rate of progress Project status
Interdependencies Easy to communicate and track progress Advanced/complex linear schedules can include: Earthwork Profiles Activities isolated to specific areas Activities working in the reverse direction Different patterns and line types for identification
Class Notes Week 15 PERT Uncertainty in Construction Schedules Uncertainty is expected in construction schedules CPM calculations are based on two basic assumptions for simplicity Estimated logic and durations are correct Any variances will cancel each
other out over the course of the project In most cases the construction industry has found these assumptions to be sufficient However, we know that in reality this is very rarely the case Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) The Program Evaluation
and Review Technique (PERT) we developed by the U.S. Navy in 1958 PERT uses probability analysis to determine the uncertainties in a project PERT is especially effective for projects where historical cost and time data is limited or varies greatly Therefore, it is a great
tool for construction because no two projects are exact PERT, however, is rarely used in the construction industry Comparisons with CPM PERT networks can be plotted graphically using a ADM or PDM format PERT analysis is performed using steps similar to CPM
analysis Create activities Determine logic Establish durations Forward pass, backward pass, calculate float The main difference between the two methods is how activity durations are estimated PERT Durations CPM uses a deterministic approach We know the
scope and production rates so we can calculate the duration PERT uses a probabilistic approach We know the scope, but the production rate will vary from one activity to another We assume that given a large number of occurrences they will have a normal distribution
We can use basic probability equations to predict the expected duration of an activity Normal Distributions If activity durations were recorded for similar activities on a histogram they would likely have a normal distribution This is caused by random occurrences having
a central tendency The duration will vary, but will be more likely to fall in the center of the sample distribution This becomes more evident as the sample size increases PERT Probability Concepts Range the difference between the highest and lowest values Mode
the value with the greatest frequency Median the value which divides the total population in half Mean the arithmetic average of the total population Standard Deviation a measure of the spread of distribution from the mean value Variance square value of the
standard deviation Standard Deviation About 68% of all activities fall within one standard deviation of the mean About 95% of all activities fall within two standard deviations of the mean About 99.73% of all activities fall within three standard deviations of the mean
Using the standard deviation of a normal distribution we can determine the probability of an activitys completion within a certain time PERT Durations Because we may not have sufficient historical data for an we cannot calculate the standard deviation accurately We
can, however, make estimates of the range of values the duration could fall between Using this we can estimate the standard deviation based on the fact that 99.73% of all occurrences fall between three standard deviations from the mean Therefore, the standard
deviation is about 1/6 of the range Using PERT, durations are determined for three scenarios: Optimistic, To Pessimistic, Tp And most likely Tm From these three estimates, the expected duration, Te, can be determined by calculating the mean: Te = (To + 4 Tm +
Tp )/6 The most likely durations are the most heavily weighted of the three scenarios Only in a perfectly normal distribution will the most likely durations be the same as the expected duration Duration distributions commonly have a positively skewed shape (right
skewed) This is due to the fact optimistic durations are based simply on 100% efficiency with no impacts Whereas pessimistic durations can include many factors which could extend an activity The expected duration, Te , itself does not identify the degree of uncertainty
PERT Probability Concepts To determine the degree of uncertainty or certainty that an activity will be completed within a specific time the standard deviation, S, must be calculated S = (Tp To )/6 Using the standard deviation, the probability of finishing an activity
within a specific time can be determined with a normal distribution table (Hinze, Table 15.1) X = (T- Te )/S The table used is for a normal distribution, which is not always accurate However, creating individual distribution curves for each activity would be overly
complicated Error is minimized as the number of activities increase in the schedule PERT Probability Concepts Example: Concrete is being placed for a 4000 of sidewalk, 6 wide and 3 thick, in a new subdivision. Based on your companies records, the fastest
production rate of concrete placement for a sidewalk is 20 CY/Day, the slowest is 5 CY/Day, and typical is 15 CY/Day. What is the probability that your company will finish this activity within 40 days? How long will it take to finish the activity with 90% certainty? What is
the probability that this activity will be finished between 30 and 35 days? PERT Schedule Calculations The probability of activities completing on time is possible, but we are more concerned about the overall project After the activity durations have been calculated, the
forward pass, backward pass, and float are calculated the same as in CPM Float is called slack in PERT After the calculations are completed, the probability for finishing the overall project on time must then be determined The probability of completing an independent
chain of activities within a time can be calculated similarly to each activity We must first find the projects standard deviation Central Limit Theorem Demonstrates mathematically that the sums of a sufficiently large multiplicity of random variables will tend to produce a
normal distributions The standard deviation of the project can, therefore, be determined by the standard deviations of the individual activities PERT Schedule Calculations Step 1 Sum all the duration of all activities in a path (start with the critical path first) Step 2
Calculate the variance, V = S2 , for each activity and sum them up Vcp = S2 Step 3 The standard deviation for the path of activities is square root of the sum of activity variances Scp = Vcp ^(1/2) This process is then repeated for the most critical paths These
paths are called float paths Continuous independent paths with equal amounts of total float This process is complicated without the use of a computer Depending on the degree of uncertainty for each established path, a path with a smaller duration could be more
critical than the longest path if the probability of finishing on time is lower Project Example Using PERT The network below is given with estimated durations provided in optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic times. Determine the probability that the project will be
completed in less than 72 days. Project Example Using PERT Determine the expected durations for each activity Determine the standard deviation and variance for each activity Using the expected durations, compute the early dates, late dates, and total float for

the network using CPM calculations Identify the critical path Determine the sum of the variances for activities on the critical path The standard deviation of the project is the square root of the total variance Determine the probability of the project similarly to
determining the probability of an activity X = (72 70)/3.63 X = .55
P(X = .55) = .7088 There is 70.88% certainty that the project will be complete in 72 days or less Project Example Using PERT Repeat steps for the next most critical path Path ACEGH is 65 days
long, S = 3.11 X = (72-65)/3.11 = 2.25 Path ACEGH has a 98.78% chance of finishing within 72 days Advantages/Disadvantages Advantages- Calculates the probability of completing activities and the overall project within a certain timeframe It provides the ability
to rank activities and activity paths according to risk Can be used to improve durations to reduce the risk of delay Disadvantages Complex networks are very complicated to analyze Results are difficult to explain to those not familiar with statistics The longest path
does not always represent the critical set of activities PERT Conclusion A PERT analysis is a good way to determine the uncertainty in a construction schedule It is also a good way to identify activities with more uncertainty and reduce the uncertainty by increasing the
planned duration to prevent delay PERT analyses are not commonly used for several reasons: Very complicated to complete Harder to communicate to people who are not familiar with statistics The CPM schedule is seen as an estimate of time and a fair amount of
variation is expected Monte Carlo Approach PERT does not consider merge event bias Resulting from one paths impact on another path Similarly to PERT, durations for optimistic, mostlikely, and pessimistic times are estimated However, instead of calculating all of
the standard deviations and variances for the activities and paths, random durations are assigned to each activity to perform the analysis This process is repeated many times to establish a distribution curve for the project duration The mean duration and standard
deviation can be calculated from the distribution Probabilities can then be calculated based on the new distribution curve The Monte Carlo approach can also help determine the probability of an activity becoming critical.