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Average
life
atmosphere
Water vapor
1 week
Methane
10 years
Ozone
100 years
Carbon
dioxide 100 years
(CO2)
in
the
12.
The impact of population on the environmental
What really counts is not the number of people alone but their impact
on the environment.
Population pose problems insofar as (we) consume resources and
generate wastes VIT
The per-capita impact (the resources consumed and the wastes put
out per person) varies greatly around the world.
On the average each citizen of the rich countries consumes 32 times
more resources and puts out 32 times more wastes than do
inhabitants of the third world
But low impact people are becoming high impact people for two
reasons:
o Rises in living standards in some third world countries.
o Immigration of third world inhabitants into the first world.
I have described these 12 sets of problems as separate from each
other. In fact, they are linked: one problem exacerbates another or
makes its solution more difficult (J. Diamond).
Our world society is presently on a non-sustainable course, and any
of our 12 problems of non-sustainability that we have just
summarized would suffice to limit our lifestyle within the next several
decades. They are like time bombs with fuses of less than 50 years
(J. Diamond).
As we are rapidly advancing along this non-sustainable course, the
worlds environmental problems will get resolved, in one way or
another, within the lifetimes of the children and young adults alive
today. The only question is whether they will become resolved in
pleasant ways of our own choice, or in unpleased ways not of our own
choice, such as warfare, genocide, starvation, disease, epidemics and
collapses of societies.
The aim (in 1997) was to reduce GHG emissions below 1990 levels by
2012. The global reduction must be of a 5,2 % (100- 94,8= 5,2).
1990
100
2008-2012
94,8
2008-2012
115
2007
150
2012
119
Production of electricity
Transport
Industry
Agriculture
24%
24%
20%
11%
o Education
o living standards
Four
o
o
o
o
indicators:
Life expectancy at birth
Mean years of schooling
Expected years of schooling
GNP per capita (PPP US$)
0,955
0,938
0,937
0,921
0,920
0,919
0,916
0,916
0,916
0,912
0,909
0,885
0,840
0,821
0,793
0,745
0,729
Minimum value
20
0
0
0
163
country valueminimumvalue
maximum valueminimum value
So, first of all we calculate the four indices (or indexes) and then the
HDI as the geometric mean of the previous four normalized indices.
Exercise 1: Mozambique
Life expectancy at birth
48,4 years
MYS
EYS
GNP per capita
index=
1,2 years
8,2 years
854 US$
48,420
=0,4493
83,220
1,20
=0,091
13,20
8,20
EYS=
=0,398
20,60
MYS=
Educationindex=
Income index=
MYSEYS
0,09090,398
=
=0,2
CE index( MaxMin)
0,9510
ln 854ln 163
=0,255
ln 108,211ln 163
HDI = 0,44930,20,255=0,284
Exercise 2: Norway
Life expectancy at birth
81,1 years
Mean years schooling 12,6
Expected years schooling
17,3
GNP p/c PPP
47.557 US $
index=
MYS=
EYS=
81,120
=0,967
83,220
12,60
=0,955
13,20
17,30
=0,8398
20,60
Educationindex=
Income index=
0,9950,8398
=0,937
0,9510
ln 47557ln 163
=1,0198
ln 108211ln 163
HDI =3 0,996780,920,8735=0,925
Ecological footprint
An ecological footprint (EF) is a measure of the amount of
bioproductive land and sea required to support a persons lifestyle.
It includes the land needed to get the resources and dispose of the
waste (including the carbon emissions).
The EF also counts the impacts of companies (business) and
governments.
EF measures how much land and water area a human population
requires to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb its
wastes under prevailing technology.
EF is expressed in hectares per capital.
EF measures the extent to which humanity is using nature's resources
faster than they can regenerate.
So EF is a measure of human demand on the Earths ecosystems. It is
a standardized measure of demand for natural capital that may be
contrasted with the planets ecological capacity to regenerate.
Therefore EF can help us plan for a world in which we all live well,
within the means of our one planet.
But today, humanitys Ecological Footprint is over 50% larger than
what the planet can regenerate.
It now takes more than one year and six months for the Earth to
regenerate what we use in a single year.
In other words, we are presently using one and half planets Earth.
At this pace in less than forty years we will need three planets.
o Ecological Overshoot
When humanitys ecological resource demands exceed what
nature can supply, we reach ecological overshoot.
The effects: collapsing fisheries, carbon-induced climate
change, species extinction, deforestation, the loss of
groundwater and so on.
The EF has more than tripled since 1960.
o Humanitys Footprint 1961-2003
How many Earths were needed to meet the resource
requirements of humanity for each year?
Ratio between resource demand & Biocapacity.
Demand = population times per capita consumption (population
* per capita consumption)
Biocapacity = 1 planet
Mexico
Mexico has moved from using only 1/3 of its domestic biocapacity in
1961 to nearly 1 times it own biocapacity in 2002.
Cuba
Cuba suffered from the disintegration of the USSR in 1989.
Cuba adapted to live more in lin e with its own natural capacity.
Shortcomings of the GDP indicator
Some of the most respected economists caution against using GDP as
a measure of social welfare.
0,226
0,658
0,307
0,630
(2012)
(2007)
(2011)
(2011)
IG=
piqi
pi
being:
pi the accumulated percentages of population.
qi the accumulated percentages of income.
Exercise 1 of GI: Distribution of the familiar disposable income
1960
pi
30
55
69
78
qi
15
25
36
52
pi-qi
15
30
33
26
85
95
100
512
70
83
100
15
12
0
131
131
= 0,318
412
(We put 412 instead of 512 because we have not in account the last
number, thats 100).
GI1960 =
2000
pi
35
62
74
82
89
99
100
541
qi
20
44
59
68
79
96
100
GI1960 =
75
441
pi-qi
15
18
15
14
10
3
0
75
= 0,17
LORENZ CURVE
Vertical axis qi
Horizontal axis pi
La diagonal es una bisectriz 45
Exercise 2 of GI: Distribution of the familiar disposable income
1970
pi
qi
pi-qi
32
10
22
58
22
36
71
31
40
86
45
41
93
68
25
98
79
10
100
100
0
538
183
GI1960 =
2000
pi
34
54
183
438
qi
23
41
= 0,42
pi-qi
11
13
69
85
93
97
100
532
55
72
82
94
100
GI2000 =
65
432
14
13
11
3
0
65
= 0,15
Exercise
Cuintile
s
20
20
20
20
20
3: GI
Brazil (%)
Cuintile
s (pi)
20
40
60
80
100
300
Brazil (%)
(qi)
2
7
17
35
100
GIBrazil =
Cuintile
s (pi)
20
40
60
80
100
300
2
5
10
18
65
Singapore
(%)
7
13
16
22
42
Pi-qi
18
33
43
45
0
139
139
= 0,695
200
Singapore
(%)
(qi)
7
20
36
58
100
GISingapore =
79
200
Pi-qi
13
20
24
22
0
79
= 0,395
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