1.

Introduction
The importance of prediction in the control of electrical energy is fundamental. The forecast
electricity demand involves the evaluation of the characteristics of the application: the size
evolution in time (the shape of the load curve), the structure of demand (consumers), etc.
There are at least two tasks of the management of electrical energy. On the one hand, the
management of electrical energy is the means by which you can obtain important economic
advantages in the operation of power plants and electrical networks and the necessary
investments in new power plants and lines. To achieve these goals, the electricity company
should try to have a load curve is flat, or, in some cases, for example, HPP, to adjust the curve
load curve of the water flow. This form of management can lead to:
saving investments in production and transmission of electrical energy;
more efficient use of power plants:
- more efficient use of power plants;
- fewer stops and starts of groups of electric;
- optimum equipment performance over a long period of time.
reduction in transport costs.
Another objective of the management of the electric load is to prevent the spread of emergency
situations, such as:
the load imbalance between generated and consumed in the system in real time;
- excessive use of certain equipment in certain parts of the system;
- imbalance unpredictability in the future between demand and supply.
All functions that provide safe and efficient from an economic point of view of production,
transport and distribution of electric energy are grouped into the Energy Management System
(EMS).
The prognosis of pregnancy is performed mainly on the basis of previous data about the changes
of pregnancy, which systematically recorded and processed using special methods.
Forecast electrical load is a tool EMS in a modern style. In order to be efficient, economical and
effective management of the power system, this forecast it is necessary to conduct a wide range
of intervals:
The forecast for a very short time, from several seconds to several hours;
The forecast for the short period of time, from several hours to sptmin;
The forecast for the medium term, from several weeks to one year;
The forecast for the long term, from one year to twenty years.
Each of these types of forecasting has a clear goal and is an important influence on the
parameters of the entities of the energy sector companies.
The forecast for the short term provides information needed by the Operator of the Trading
System and the Operator to cover the load schedule a day/few days. In General, the operational
forecast, characterized by relatively low variance values is made.
The forecast for the medium term provides the information necessary for production planning,
establishment schemes normal operation in the sector transmission and distribution of electricity,
evaluation, management of inventories, the planning of maintenance work.
Long-term forecast is the basis of the decisions of the tactical nature of rehabilitation, the
purchase of new equipment, structural changes in the system of transport and distribution.
The forecast for a very long time provides the data necessary for making decisions of a strategic

nature on the construction of new power plants, changes in the structure of electricity production,
the development of energy policies in this area, the development of new ways of providing
resources of primary energy.
Although the projections interfere with a large number of parameters, the implementation of
some of the errors as small as possible is the main goal of them:
- underestimation of costs, there is the risk of inability to cover them, accompanied by high costs
for acoperireadaunelor for nealimentarea consumers or the high costs of purchasing electric
power from other sources;
- at higher costs as a result of damage are determined by the funds blocked in production
capacity, investment in transport and distribution networks, sources of primary energy reserves
exaggerated fuel.
Economic impact of important errors in the forecast of consumption of electric energy was
forced to find ways that give information trust level as high as possible. Achieved at present
largely based on intuition of human experts, modern methods of prediction is based more on
mathematical models that allow parametric analysis based on important database.
The forecast in the energy sector should evaluate how the energy consumption and losses in reeLele electric, the change in time of the power required is the load curves in the structure of
consumption.
The models used for forecasting electrical energy consumption on the basis of information about
the most important determinants of the change and the development of pregnancy:
economic factors, which take into account economic development, policy development, the
greatest share of industries, modernization processes, the level of equipment equipment,
household appliances of the population;
demographic factors, which take into account both the population growth and changes in the
order defined territorial government policy in this area, with the effect, in particular, to forecast
in the long term;
aspects of environmental policy in the use of fuel sources, from the point of view the impact on
the environment is to influence, in particular, to forecast in the long term;
factors, climatic, seasonal and local, determine the variation of specific sizes (average
temperature of day, cloud cover, wind speed, duration of insolation and so on), as well as climate
change in the long term;
factors, temporal identify differences in working days and holidays, from influential in
particular, the forecast for the short term;
technological factors, which include efforts to develop technology, low energy consumption, as
well as the measures taken to improve the efficient use of electric energy, influence, particularly
in long-term and very long;
tariff policy with the effect, in particular on the medium;
specific events - sports events or public far-reaching consequences, strikes planned - effects, in
particular, to forecast in the short term;
random factors, imprevizibili, which determine changes in the consumption of electrical
energy.
Forecast of consumption of electrical energy should take into account the General trend of the
growth of energy consumption with the development of society, but also the problems to improve
the efficiency of electric energy, as well as for the development of technologies with low power
consumption. Thus, it is possible, although an increasing number of consumers, energy
consumption, in order to have growth rates below, or even to stay permanently.

In the case of the forecast in the short and medium term is of particular interest to estimate the
load curve and the procedure for covering it, and in the case of forecasts on the long term and
very long, are of interest, in particular, the forecast of consumption of electrical energy.
Used for all types of forecasting, the method of the master, person, based on extensive
experience in this area specialists who have accumulated a large amount of information about the
past and have sufficient knowledge about the future development of society. In the case of the
forecasts in the long term and very long, the staff assessment, which includes both energy
specialists and economists, politicians, finaniti, allows the identification of the basic coordinate
the development of the energy sector in accordance with the General development of society and
in accordance with the priorities of the long-term society.
2. The forecast load curves
The forecast load curves in the short and medium term, has an important role in the work of
companies in the power industry, providing the necessary data for planning production units
dispecerizabile, the determination of the order of merit and rates marginally system. In addition,
it provides data for a study on the utilization of the network and possible contingencies that may
occur in the network. There is a wide variety of methods for carrying out these weather some
with the model is static, the other dynamic. For the prediction curves of pregnancy, most often
the following methods:
intuitive methods (method wizard, person);
method of time series analysis;
spectral methods;
methods based on artificial intelligence.
2.1 Methods of intuitive prediction (method wizard)
The method is based on the great experience of specialists in the field of energy, which, on the
basis of the data known from the past, knowledge of how different factors affect the consumption
zone electric energy, as well as evaluating the specific conditions of time for which the forecast
is made, estimates the load curve. Specialist, with extensive experience in this field, can provide
the forecast error under 2% .
2.2 Method of analysis of time series
Method is used, in particular, to predict the load curves are presented as a sequence of time
values equidistant (in General, values of time). Prevent the analytical curves of the load
determines the need to evaluate the numeric values that correspond to the curve of the load
forecast.
The method provides an estimate of the magnitude of P(t), variable in time, in time t based on the
analysis of data obtained from the history of his
(2.1)
where n corresponds to the first size to the previous one, which are taken into account.
In principle, the method of time series seeks to establish relations
mathematics, which should lead to an approximation, as better data
from the process.
Existing data allows the creation of mathematical relationships that
aproximeze change in the future in size.
Specifically the consumption of electrical energy is the fact that the
method of time series can be used to forecast consumption at a
certain time on the basis of the relevant data, at the same time in
the previous days or in previous years. The forecast result is

corrected on the basis of the analysis of the impact that may have
some events are predictable, as these weather changes daily
practice at sunrise and sunset, the profile of atypical days,
information about the fault of consumers, etc.
Method is used, in particular, to predict in the short and medium
term, in which the behavior of the previous size is an indicator of
the actual value of its future, the system representing the variations
of the slow time.
Implementation of the mathematical model should:
the availability of data in our days and in previous years;
knowledge of specific aspects of the process (the mode of
occurrence of values of a time series);
collect data that define the process;
development and validation of a mathematical model.
The structure definition of the mathematical model on the basis of
the function that approximates better the evolution of existing data.
The parameters of the mathematical model are classical methods of
analysis "closeness" of points of the function data, known from the
history of the process. Usually the method of least squares provides
the information necessary to establish the mathematical model.
The accuracy of the model is confirmed by checking in the case of
the known values.
In General, the mathematical model used to predict the load curve
using linear functions. Although not provides the approximation of
an ideal reality, their relative simplicity and the fact that the theory
of linear systems offers an effective tool of analysis and research,
lead to the widespread use of this model.
A mathematical model based on the nonlinear functions can
provide a much better approximation compared to the model with
linear functions, but the theory of nonlinear systems, in most cases,
do not provide specific solutions, recurgndu-linearization.
The reduction in error of prediction can be done using the
decomposition of consumption by types of consumers with similar
characteristics. Thus, industrial consumers curve consumption
depends mainly on the following factors:
the number of shifts, and mode (permanently, temporarily, only
on working days);
the intensity of work during the week (in whole days at the
beginning and at the end of the week to provide more low-intensity
activity);
type of activity on weekends weekly;
type of work during the holidays.
In General, for production activities, the influence of climatic
factors (temperature, cloudiness) has a weight decreases.
In the case of domestic consumers climatic factors and predictable
events (festivals, events, sports and art far-reaching consequences)

have an important influence on the curve of consumption.

In the case of consumption for the service sector (transport, trade
and public catering etc) you can determine the factors that
significantly affect consumption curve.
The forecast is used primarily for operational management system
as the basis for determining the programming mode manufacturers
of electric energy to cover the load curve.
2.3 Spectral methods
Considering the load curve as a periodic function P(t), analysis and
forecast short term or medium term can be done in the frequency
domain, by expansion of a function by converting Fourier.n this
case, the function can be written in the form
P (t ) a0

(2.2)

k 1

ak cos

2k
t
T

k 1

sin

2k
t
T

where a0 is the average value of the function P(t), ak and bk the

coefficients for Fourier harmonics of rank k, N is the number of
harmonics taken into consideration, T is the period of the process
analyzed.
Using the function (2.2), forecast curves, the problem is to forecast
the coefficients a0 , ak and bk by using the methods of linear or
nonlinear correlation with size, as is known, the forecast period, for
example the strength of an average day. Can also be used in
methods of artificial intelligence.
Setting the number N of harmonics taken into account in the
implementation of the prediction depends on the required accuracy
and the model complexity. The greater the number of harmonics is
less, the procedure for forecasting easier to apply and model used
is simpler.
Forecast errors can be reduced appreciably by
compensating those arising in the modeling using fuzzy
techniques weighting errors in the previous days of the
same type.

2.4 Methods based on artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence methods are used increasingly to solve the
problems associated with the forecast of consumption of electrical
energy. The quality of the predictions made using the methods of
the aspects of artificial intelligence to a large extent depends on the
quantity and quality of source data, database development
provider. In the case of forecasts for a very short time widely used
are the methods based on artificial neural networks (RNA) with

some improvements through additional use of fuzzy methods. It is

very important to know the evolution of the load curve for a long
period of time to ensure effective planning and decision making
effectively.
The forecast is based on the extraction of the trend of the past and
projecting it into the future, thereby fulfilling RNA very useful for
at least two reasons :
- Firstly, it was shown that RNA is capable of a numerical
approximation of any continuous functions with desired
accuracy. RNA can be considered a nonlinear method, with

multiple variables, and nonparametric;

- Secondly, RNA uses the data-drive. This eliminates the need for
laborious mathematical models, and estimation of parameters.
Starting from a pair of vectors of input-output, RNA is able to
develop a recurrence relation between input and output, and
storage in the neuron.
The use of specific RNA for the implementation of the prediction
curves load requires a rich base

data,built with information about daily tasks curves achieved and

the specific characteristics of each day (working day, holiday,
temperature changes during the day, humidity variation during
the day, other features of the day). So, for evaluating the
electrical load at time t, for the involvement of RNA can be used
forces known at the moments t 1; t 2; t 3; t 24; t
168; t 192, temperature and humidity appropriate,
characteristics of day forecast. Figure 2.1 shows the structure
of a simplified neural network for the prediction of power Pt, at

time t, based on data taken from the previous P(t1), P(t2),

P(t3), corresponding temperatures, type of day, and
information on power achieved at the same time, the
previous day and the powers at the same time and the
previous time the previous week. At input RNA is transferred

and the data predicted for time t, through blocks of delay

corresponding to the time the authorities made earlier.
Input RNA of Fig. 2.1, can be supplemented with information
about humidity at previous hours, with weather conditions last
week, the forecast values of temperature and humidity at time t, as
well as information about specific events that could occur at time t.
The increase in the number of input ensures a small deviation
of the predicted values to actual values.

In order to ensure that the forecast load curve for the day are 24
copies in the network of Fig. 2.1 Performance RNA probed with a
set of data not used in the process of Hobbies. When choosing
RNA structure, which should be taken into account the following
aspects:
- The structure of the RNA must consider the aspects of the
application
- The structure of the RNA should be simple for the following
reasons : the structure of simple is better possibilities of
generalization and the process invaare faster than RNA complex
The flexible structure of neural adaptation allows in some cases
- To predict the light input RNA should be easily obtained on the
basis of measurements, and should not contain estimates. As a
consequence, data entry, within one month, in the past, without
taking into account the indices of climatic, demographic and
economic influence on development ;
Climatic factors have a great influence on the evolution, but the
assessment of their actual difficult. However, these factors
influence the development of the cyclical component , so consider
automatically ;
- Artificial neuron is perfectly able to simulate the evolution of the
monthly trend for a particular month. NA(neuronal artificially) is
trained using a set of training data for the month indicated in the
previous years ;
- Previous month's data for the month will be considered as the
inputs of the neuron. The desire for simplicity, the number of
entries is limited to 4. The flexibility of the structure of RNA is
possible select the number of input neurons for each forecast
alternative ;
The neurons corresponding to the months of the year need to be
merged into a repetitive structure, where write certain months
replacement of the outputs of the previous month, when the
forecast is calculated for the whole year (forecast in the medium

term).
- RNA consist of nodes operating in parallel and interact with each other through synaptic
connections. The big advantage of neural networks is the ability to form relationships nonlinear
complex without the assumption of the previous nature of the relationship.
2.5 econometric Methods
Some forecasting methods assume that it is possible to determine the main factors that can affect
variables that are predicted. Thus, the prediction of the influence of variables can be used in
forecasting.
Analysis regresiv using linear regression or nonlinear
- Model autoregresiv moving average (ARMA);
- Model autoregresiv integrated moving average (ARIMA);for Example:the Box-Jenkins
- Econometrie.
The General form of the model autoregresiv this time of recurrence relations: (2.3)
in the current value of the connected sum of the weighted values of the previous and white
noise . Thus, can be considered as regesie on the p previous values of the variable .
Applying the transformation Z, the equation becomes :
where (2.4)
Model ARMA(p,q) is obtained by combining the models AR(p) and MA(q) :
(2.5)
(2.6)
The model ARIMA model integrated WEAPONS. For non-stationary time series and (exogenous
variable), are replaced by their differences and, respectively .
The Approach Of Box-Jenkins
WEAPON models BJ is a combination of models AR and MA. Thus, the processes ARMS are
autoregresive process of order p with residue moving average of order q, which examines the
relations (2.7)
where sites are the remains of a moving average of order q.
Model Box-Jenkins assume lots of time with the engine off. Box and Jenkins recommends
differentiation of nonstationary series as many times as necessary to minimize staionalitate.
Thus, the ARIMA model.
Some formulations turns series, extragnd media series at each point. This leads to a number of
media void. Let this operation is necessary or not, it depends on the software used to estimate the
model
Model Box-Jenkins can be expanded to include seasonal conditions autoregresivi and medium
alunectoare seasonal. Even if this complicates the notation and structure of the model, the
concept is fundamentally terms similar to seasonal conditions nesezonieri
(autoregresivi and moving averages).
The most common models of Box-Jenkins includes a variety of operators, conditions
autoregresivi, moving averages, seasonal conditions autoregresivi and seasonal moving averages.
The primary steps in creating a time series model, Box-Jenkins :
1. Identification of the model;
2. The valuation model;
3. Model verification.
Model Box-Jenkins is flexible due to the inclusion of conditions autoregresivi and moving

averages.
According to the theorem of decomposition of any stationary process can be approximated by the
model of the WEAPON.
Analysis of the standard Box-Jenkins includes the conversion of data across various seasonal
differences and nesezoniere to achieve a set with the engine off. The series has stationary random
fluctuations, constant change around the mean.
CONCLUSIONS
The usefulness of these methods of analysis are the identification of common criteria that
characterize classic products, consumer goods or services and electricity. Using the same
reasoning, we must conclude that the management of production, production management, as
activity in General, and management of electrical energy are concepts with implications
commune.
It is important for companies in the distribution and supply to develop the demand for electricity,
so the acquisition implemented with minimal cost.