Ukraine crisis: What are Putin's calculations?

By Steve Rosenberg
BBC News, Moscow
Russia has a government and a parliament; it
has commissions and committees and a
national Security Council.
But all the key decisions in this country are taken by
one man: Vladimir Putin. He sits on top of the
"vertical of power" which he has constructed. Right
now he decides which path Russia takes.
And that is why analyzing Russia, working out what Moscow is thinking and
planning can be difficult. You have to put yourself inside President Putin's mind.
So what is Vladimir Putin thinking right now about Ukraine? What motivates his
foreign policy moves? What is his objective?
Duped by the West
One thing that makes Vladimir Putin mad is the feeling that he is being deceived.
We saw that with Libya in 2011. Moscow was persuaded not to block a UN
Security Council resolution on a no-fly zone to protect civilians. But Nato's
military action led to regime change and the death of Col Muammar Gaddafi - far
beyond what Russia had expected. It helps explain why Russia has been quick
to veto resolutions on Syria.
On Ukraine, too, President Putin feels the West has tricked him. Last month he
sent his envoy to Kiev to take part in negotiations on a compromise agreement
between President Viktor Yanukovych and the opposition. That deal, brokered by
foreign ministers from Germany, France and Poland, envisaged early elections,
constitutional reform and a national unity government.
The Kremlin's representative did not sign the deal, but Russia appeared to
accept it as the best solution in a bad situation. It remained words only. Less than
24 hours later, Mr Yanukovych was on the run, the parliament removed him from
power and appointed a new acting president from the opposition. The pace of
events took Moscow completely by surprise.
A "Maidan self-defence unit" in Kiev: Russia labels such formations "nationalists"

Western plots against Russia?

The world according to Vladimir Putin is one in
which Western powers are plotting night and day
to destabilise Russia (and him, personally).
He remembers the Rose Revolution in Georgia
in 2003, the Orange Revolution in Kiev the
following year; Russia suspected the West of
planning both.
More recently the Kremlin accused the West of
funding and fuelling anti-government street protests in Moscow.
For months, Russia has been accusing the US and EU of meddling in Ukraine for
geopolitical gains. On Tuesday President Putin said Viktor Yanukovych's refusal
to sign an association agreement with the EU last autumn "was simply used as
an excuse to back opposition forces in their battle for power... it's not the first time
our Western partners have done this in Ukraine".
Then there is the question of Nato. In an interview with the newspaper
Kommersant in 2010, Vladimir Putin recalled how the alliance had promised the
USSR it would not expand beyond its current boundaries. "They deceived us in
the rudest way," Putin concluded. Could the establishment in Kiev of a proWestern government mean future Nato membership for Ukraine? Moscow would
perceive that as a direct threat to its national security.
Ukraine's forces across Crimea are
blockaded inside their bases by pro-Russian
troops
Anything you can do...
In the West, Moscow's intervention in Crimea
has been denounced as "brutal aggression".
In Vladimir Putin's mind, that is hypocrisy. He
never loses an opportunity to remind the
world about US intervention in Iraq, Libya and
Afghanistan.
In his speech to the Munich Security Conference in 2007, Mr Putin denounced
what he saw as a "unipolar world" - a world where the United States was the
single master. He has been determined to defend what he sees as Russia's
legitimate interests around the world - be they in Syria, or closer to home in
Ukraine.
What is more, with much of Europe relying on Russian energy imports and
benefiting from trade with Moscow, the Kremlin calculates that its opponents in
the West will not have the stomach for a serious falling-out over Russian muscleflexing.
President Putin maintains he does not want to go to war with the Ukrainian
people. He claims Russia's intervention is "humanitarian" to protect people there
from "chaos".

But Russia's national interests will be paramount for him: ensuring the new
government in Kiev cannot eject the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea and that
Ukraine's new leaders think twice before embracing the West and rejecting
Russia.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26447674
Matias Balboa
POS 407
Guillerme Silva.
Analytical Essay Ukraine crisis: What are Putin's calculations?

Polarity of international relations is the way the power is

distributed; is a feature of the international system that has been
present for many years. When talking about polarity we can distinguish
between unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar Polarity is important because
helps us to understand how international relations are carried. How
economic policies are made, among others.
What does it mean to live in a unipolar world? A unipolar world
describes the distribution of power in hands of only one state with
most of the cultural, economic and military influence. This power is
also known as the hegemony. We can see examples of a unipolar world
as far as the old empires such as the Egyptian Empire from 3150 BC to
664 BC or as close to the end of the cold war with the United States,
emerging victorious when the URSS fall. In both of these examples, we
can identify only one power controlling, ruling and imposing it will. On
the other hand, we have a bipolar world when the distribution of power
is divided between two states, which have the majority of economic,
military and cultural influence internationally or regionally. An example
of these was the cold war, when the US and the URSS were fighting
each other to take control of the world.

In the article, President Vladimir Putin talks about how the United
States has been the single master in the world and how he has been
deceived. He claims that the West tricked him in Crimea. Also, how the
US influenced Moscow, not to block a UN Security Council on a no-fly
zone to protect civilians. He says he is decided to protect Russian
interest, but do we really live in a unipolar world as Mr. Putin says?
When talking about a unipolar world we can think about three
perspectives: economy, military, and politics. From the economic
perspective, we can see that the US it is not anymore the hegemon.
China has been competing arm to arm with the US market, on the
other hand if we consider the European Union as a whole we can
realize that now we dont have only two parties leading the economy if
not three. The fact is that globalization has made easier for countries
to export what they produce and to create new trading alliances
making it harder for the US to be the only competitor in the global
economy. It is true that the US has still influences over the
international organizations such as the IMF where he can still influence
decisions to be made favoring his economic model and economic
policies, but it is important to recognize that from the economic
perspective we do not live in a unipolar world.
On the other hand, Polarity from the military perspective is clear
the US is the hegemon on a unipolar world. The US investment in
military is amazingly big. US budget for the military was $711b on
2011 and was followed by China, which spent an estimated $143b on
its military. China has increased its military spending by 170% since
2002, but it is impossible to conclude that it will represent a threat to
the US in the near future.
From the politics perspective, although the US is one of the major
players in the international arena, it is not the only one anymore. The
US power comes from its huge economy and military but as long as

countries around the world organize into alliances such as the

European Union, Mercosur among others. It would be easier to oppose
the US will. Countries have voice in international organizations such as
the UN Security Council, the IFM, and the ICJ, which let them take part
of the decisions made.
Finally, Russia still is a major adversary to the US decisions; if the
US says white they say black. They are one of the few countries with
nuclear power. Also, they still are respected on the international arena.
It is my belief that Mr. Putin decision to take over Crimea was a
desperate attempt to show the power that Russia has today. He clearly
wants to tell the world that it is not the US anymore out there.