Fut Mod Corn

FUTURES PRICE FORECAST MODEL: estimates for the season-average price, price loss
coverage (PLC) payment rate and counter-cyclical payment (CCP) rate for corn
This Contents sheet provides an explanation of each worksheet in the file.
For marketing year 2014-15 we forecast the price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate as provided for in the 2014
Farm Act. See:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/agricultural-act-of-2014-highlights-and-implications/crop-commodity-programs.aspx
We also forecast the counter-cyclical payment (CCP) rate for marketing year 2013/14. Users are encouraged to
read Forecasting the Counter-Cyclical Payment Rate for U.S. Corn: An Application of the Futures Price
Forecasting Model, which provides background information on the model for corn, its data requirements, the
forecast procedure, and forecast results for crop years 2003/04 and 2004/05. The models for soybeans and wheat
are similar. Slight differences in those models are explained in the Excel file for that commodity. The report only
covers corn and is available at:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/fds-feed-outlook/fds-05a-01.aspx
2014/15 forecast
This worksheet provides:
A weekly forecast of the season-average farm price received and implied counter-cyclical payment rate.
Users may change the weekly forecast by going to the Change forecast worksheet.
A chart of weekly forecasts for the entire marketing year.
An explanation of the detailed computational steps for the weekly forecasts for the marketing year.
NOTE: The futures forecast is not an official USDA forecast.*
2013/14 forecast
A weekly forecast of the season-average farm price received and implied counter-cyclical payment rate.
Users may change the weekly forecast by going to the Change forecast worksheet.
A chart of weekly forecasts for the entire marketing year.
An explanation of the detailed computational steps for the weekly forecasts for the marketing year.
Change forecast
On this worksheet, users can change the model's forecasts by inserting their own numbers for futures prices,
monthly basis values, and/or monthly marketing weights.
Definitions
This worksheet defines key terms associated with the futures forecast model.
Documentation
This worksheet provides a brief description of the forecast model, data sources, and forecast procedures.
Data
This worksheet provides current and historical data needed to produce the marketing year forecasts:
Weekly and monthly futures prices of the nearby contract by marketing year.
Monthly and annual farm prices received by marketing year.
Monthly basis values by marketing year.
Monthly marketing weights by marketing year.
Monthly season-average price received projection from World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE)
Policy parameters (target price, national average loan rate, direct payment rate, counter-cyclical payment
trigger price, and reference price).
*Official USDA forecasts are available from:
The most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for season average farm price received.
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194
Information provided by USDA's Farm Service Agency for official counter-cyclical payment rates.
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/webapp?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=foa-cc
2014/15 forecast
Weekly forecast of the corn season-average farm price received and implied price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate for crop year 2014/15:
T he user ma y change the weekly fore cast by going to the c hange forecast workshee t.
Explanation of forecast (table 1)
Chart of weekly futures model forecasts for the entire marketing year (figure 1)
Explanation of detailed computational steps for the weekly forecasts for the marketing year (tables 2 through 7)
NOTE: The futures forecast is not an official USDA forecast.
Weekly forecast of the corn season-average farm price received and implied price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate for crop year 2014/15:
Date of weekly forecast
9-Oct-14
Season-av erage farm price receiv ed
PLC payment rate
Dollars per bushel

Futures model forecast
3.33
0.37
Midpoint of WASDE projection
3.40
0.30
Explanation of forecast (table 1):

Step # 1 ente rs the most rec ent Thursday's settlement price from eac h tra ding contract into table 1, column B. T hese
price s provide a futures price for eac h month as found in column C.
Step # 2 calculates a monthly price forecast found in column E by adding a moving 5-year average basis found in c olumn
D to the monthly futures pric e found in column C. Column F reflects, w hen available, a ctual monthly farm prices re ceived
by U.S. produc ers.
Step # 3 inserts an actual monthly price received by farmers into column F, if available. Initia lly, this is a mid-month pric e
but a month late r be comes the full month price received.
Step # 4 computes each months price weight, as found in column I, and is a product of c olumns G and H. Column G
reflec ts a composite forecast de rived from fa rm price s received or futures prices. Column H reflects e ach months 5-yearmoving-a verage monthly marketing weight.
Step # 5 computes the season-average price received forecast, a summation of monthly price weights found in column I.
Step # 6 calculates the price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate.
Date of futures forecast:
9-Oct-14
Table 1. Futures model forecast of U.S. corn producers' season-av erage price receiv ed and PLC payment rate, marketing year 2014/15
Step # 1
(Col. A)
Ma rketing
yea r month
1/
September
October
(Col. B)
March
April
May
June
July
(Col. D)
C urren t futures
Fu tu res price b ased
p rice b y trad ing o n nea rby contract 3/
co ntract 2 /
Step # 3
(Col. F)
(Col. E)
Ba sis (5-yea r U .S.

a verag e)
Step # 4
(Col. H)
(Col. G)
(Col. I)
Mo nthly farm Actu al mon th ly

Comp osite mo nthly
pri ce fo reca st
fa rm price , if foreca st actua l/fu tures
avai lab le 4/
Mo nthly marke ting

we igh ts (5-ye ar U.S.
a ve rage )
Monthl y p rice
w eig ht
Percent
7.5
13.0
Dollars per bushel

0.252
0.387
3.45
3.45
-0.38
3.06
3.06
11.4
0.350
3.58
-0.39
3.19
3.19
9.0
0.286
3.58
3.58
-0.38
-0.32
3.20
3.26
3.20
3.26
14.1
7.4
0.451
0.242
3.58
3.67
3.67
-0.39
-0.23
3.28
3.44
3.28
3.44
8.2
6.1
0.270
0.210
3.67
3.74
3.74
3.82
-0.10
-0.03
0.14
3.64
3.71
3.95
3.64
3.71
3.95
5.2
5.9
6.4
0.191
0.219
0.253
3.82
0.06
3.88
3.88
5.8
0.223
Sum of weights =
100.0
3.74
August
September
Step # 2
(Col. C)
-------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel------------------------------------------------------------------------3.45

-0.26
3.19
3.38
3.38
3.45
-0.46
2.98
2.98
November
December
January
February
3.82
Forecast of season-av erage price receiv ed:

Step # 5 Futures model forecast of the season-average price received (weighted average) ($/bu.)
3.33
Forecast of price loss cov erage (PLC) payment rate:

Step # 6
PLC payment rate ($/bu.)
0.37 = Re fe ren ce Price ($/bu .) min us th e La rger of (Marke ti ng yea r n ation al farm pri ce ($/bu.) o r Na ti on al marke ti ng assi sta nce lo an rate ($ /b u.))
3.70
3.33
1.95
1/ The marketing year for corn is September-August.

2/ Contract months include December, March, May, July, and, September. Futures price quotation from the CME Group/Chicago Board of Trade settlement prices.
A value of zero implies an actual price is available for that date.
3/ When the forecast month coincides with the month during which the contract expires, futures prices are obtained from the next nearby contract.
4/ A value of zero implies farm prices received are not available. The last price listed in this column represents the mid-month price, other prices reflect the full month price.
The PLC payment rate will be positive if both the futures fore cast of the season-ave rage price rec eive d and national
marketing assistanc e loan rate, $ 1.95/bu., a re less than the reference price of $ 3.70/bu.
The PLC payment rate will be z ero if both the futures foreca st of the se ason-average price received and national marketing
assistance loan rate a re equal to the re ferenc e price of $ 3.70/bu.
Fig ur e 1. Futur es for eca st o f U.S. c orn p roduce rs ' se aso n-a ver age price r ec eiv ed (SAP ) and P LC pay ment
rat e, ma rk e ting yea r 201 4/15
8. 50
0.4 5
8. 00
Ac tu a l SA P (av a i la b le i n O ctob er 20 15 )
7. 50
0.4 0
Fu tu res S AP f or ec a s t
Mi d p o in t o f t he WA SDE S AP p ro j ec ti o n
7. 00
Re fe ren c e P ric e
Na ti o na l ma rke ti ng
6. 50
as si st a nc e lo a n ra te
0.3 5
Fu tu res P LC p ay m en t r ate f ore c as t

WAS DE PL C p a ym en t ra te pro j e cti o n
6. 00
P LC p ay m e nt rate (Do l l ars p er b ush el )
S ea so n -a ve ra ge pri ce re cei ve d (Do l la rs pe r b ush el )
The PLC payment rate will be negative or ze ro if eithe r the futures forecast of the season-ave rage price rec eive d or
national marketing assistance loan rate are greater than the reference price of $ 3.70/bu.
0.3 0
5. 50
5. 00
0.2 5
4. 50
4. 00
0.2 0
3. 50
3. 00
0.1 5
2. 50
2. 00
0.1 0
1. 50
1. 00
0.0 5
0. 50
0. 00
0.0 0
Forecast p er iod
Explanation of de tailed compu tation al steps for the w eekly future s model forecasts (table 2 through 7)
Step # 1 enters ea ch Thursda ys se ttlement price from each trading contra ct for the respe ctive marketing year' s month.
Prices are taken from Da ta!table1 a nd ente red into table 2.
Step # 2 ca lcula tes a monthly price-received foreca st and e nters into table 3. This forecast is the sum of a 5-year ave rage
monthly basis from Data! Table 8 and the futures price in table 2.
Step # 3 inserts a monthly pric e received, if ava ila ble, from Data! T able 4 into ta ble 4. Initially, this is a mid-month price
Step # 4 computes each months pric e received foreca st, weighte d by pe rcentage of monthly marketings, and inserts into
table 6. It is a produc t of the monthly composite forecast in ta ble 5 times a 5-yea r average of monthly marketing weight
from Data! Table 10.
Step # 5 computes the we ekly forecasts for season-ave rage price rec eive d and enters them into table 7. Eac h wee kly
forecast is a summation of that we ek' s pric e weights (table 6) for each month of the marketing ye ar.
Step # 6 ca lcula tes forecasts of the price loss coverage (PL C) pa yme nt ra te and ente rs them in table 7. Polic y pa rameters
are in Da ta! Table 13.
Table 2. Weekly nearby futures price by marketing year month, marketing year 2014/15
Calendar
Forecast
year
period 1/
September
October
November
2014
1-May-14
5.00
8-May-14
5.12
15-May-14
4.81
22-May-14
4.74
29-May-14
4.63
5-Jun-14
4.47
12-Jun-14
4.44
19-Jun-14
4.48
26-Jun-14
4.43
3-Jul-14
4.15
10-Jul-14
3.93
17-Jul-14
3.87
24-Jul-14
3.70
31-Jul-14
3.67
7-Aug-14
3.71
14-Aug-14
3.74
21-Aug-14
3.69
28-Aug-14
3.69
4-Sep-14
3.47
11-Sep-14
3.41
18-Sep-14
3.38
25-Sep-14
3.26
2-Oct-14
3.23
9-Oct-14
3.45
16-Oct-14
23-Oct-14
30-Oct-14
6-Nov-14
13-Nov-14
20-Nov-14
27-Nov-14
4-Dec-14
11-Dec-14
18-Dec-14
25-Dec-14
2015
1-Jan-15
8-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
29-Jan-15
5-Feb-15
12-Feb-15
19-Feb-15
26-Feb-15
5-Mar-15
12-Mar-15
19-Mar-15
26-Mar-15
2-Apr-15
9-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
23-Apr-15
30-Apr-15
7-May-15
14-May-15
21-May-15
28-May-15
4-Jun-15
11-Jun-15
18-Jun-15
25-Jun-15
2-Jul-15
9-Jul-15
16-Jul-15
23-Jul-15
30-Jul-15
6-Aug-15
13-Aug-15
20-Aug-15
27-Aug-15
1/ Weekly forecast reflects futures settlement price on that date.
5.00
5.12
4.81
4.74
4.63
4.47
4.44
4.48
4.43
4.15
3.93
3.87
3.70
3.67
3.71
3.74
3.69
3.69
3.47
3.41
3.38
3.26
3.23
3.45
5.00
5.12
4.81
4.74
4.63
4.47
4.44
4.48
4.43
4.15
3.93
3.87
3.70
3.67
3.71
3.74
3.69
3.69
3.47
3.41
3.38
3.26
3.23
3.45
December
5.08
5.19
4.89
4.83
4.73
4.57
5.55
4.58
4.54
4.27
4.04
3.99
3.81
3.80
3.84
3.87
3.82
3.82
3.60
3.54
3.51
3.39
3.36
3.58
Marketing year month

January
February
Dollars per bushel
5.08
5.08
5.19
5.19
4.89
4.89
4.83
4.83
4.73
4.73
4.57
4.57
5.55
5.55
4.58
4.58
4.54
4.54
4.27
4.27
4.04
4.04
3.99
3.99
3.81
3.81
3.80
3.80
3.84
3.84
3.87
3.87
3.82
3.82
3.82
3.82
3.60
3.60
3.54
3.54
3.51
3.51
3.39
3.39
3.36
3.36
3.58
3.58
Table 3. Monthly price-received forecast (nearby futures price plus the basis) by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2014/15
Calendar
Forecast
Basis average
year
period 1/
September
October
November
2014
1-May-14 Basis = 5-year avg. 2008-2012 mkt. yr.

8-May-14
15-May-14
22-May-14
29-May-14
5-Jun-14
12-Jun-14
19-Jun-14
26-Jun-14
3-Jul-14
10-Jul-14
17-Jul-14
24-Jul-14
31-Jul-14
7-Aug-14
14-Aug-14
21-Aug-14
28-Aug-14
4-Sep-14
11-Sep-14
18-Sep-14
25-Sep-14
2-Oct-14 Basis = 5-year avg. 2009-2013 mkt. yr.
9-Oct-14
16-Oct-14
23-Oct-14
30-Oct-14
6-Nov-14
13-Nov-14
20-Nov-14
27-Nov-14
4-Dec-14
11-Dec-14
4.49
4.61
4.29
4.22
4.12
3.96
3.93
3.96
3.92
3.64
3.42
3.36
3.18
3.16
3.20
3.22
3.18
3.18
2.95
2.90
2.87
2.75
2.97
3.19
4.54
4.66
4.34
4.27
4.17
4.01
3.97
4.01
3.97
3.69
3.46
3.41
3.23
3.21
3.25
3.27
3.23
3.23
3.00
2.95
2.92
2.80
2.76
2.98
4.69
4.81
4.50
4.43
4.32
4.17
4.13
4.17
4.13
3.85
3.62
3.57
3.39
3.36
3.41
3.43
3.38
3.39
3.16
3.10
3.08
2.95
2.84
3.06
December
4.75
4.86
4.55
4.50
4.39
4.24
5.21
4.25
4.21
3.94
3.71
3.66
3.48
3.46
3.51
3.54
3.49
3.49
3.26
3.20
3.18
3.06
2.97
3.19
March
April
May
June
July
August
5.14
5.25
4.94
4.89
4.79
4.64
4.62
4.65
4.61
4.34
4.12
4.08
3.90
3.88
3.93
3.95
3.90
3.91
3.68
3.62
3.59
3.48
3.44
3.67
5.14
5.25
4.94
4.89
4.79
4.64
4.62
4.65
4.61
4.34
4.12
4.08
3.90
3.88
3.93
3.95
3.90
3.91
3.68
3.62
3.59
3.48
3.44
3.67
5.19
5.30
5.00
4.95
4.85
4.70
4.68
4.71
4.68
4.41
4.19
4.15
3.97
3.95
3.99
4.02
3.97
3.97
3.76
3.69
3.66
3.55
3.52
3.74
5.19
5.30
5.00
4.95
4.85
4.70
4.68
4.71
4.68
4.41
4.19
4.15
3.97
3.95
3.99
4.02
3.97
3.97
3.76
3.69
3.66
3.55
3.52
3.74
4.98
5.08
4.90
4.84
4.75
4.64
4.63
4.67
4.63
4.42
4.22
4.21
4.04
4.03
4.05
4.08
4.03
4.03
3.83
3.77
3.74
3.62
3.60
3.82
4.98
5.08
4.90
4.84
4.75
4.64
4.63
4.67
4.63
4.42
4.22
4.21
4.04
4.03
4.05
4.08
4.03
4.03
3.83
3.77
3.74
3.62
3.60
3.82
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
4.83
4.94
4.64
4.58
4.48
4.32
5.30
4.33
4.29
4.02
3.79
3.74
3.57
3.55
3.60
3.62
3.57
3.58
3.35
3.29
3.26
3.14
3.04
3.26
4.83
4.94
4.63
4.58
4.48
4.33
4.31
4.34
4.30
4.03
3.81
3.76
3.58
3.57
3.61
3.64
3.59
3.59
3.37
3.31
3.28
3.16
3.05
3.28
4.97
5.08
4.77
4.72
4.62
4.47
4.45
4.48
4.44
4.17
3.95
3.91
3.73
3.71
3.76
3.78
3.73
3.74
3.51
3.45
3.42
3.31
3.22
3.44
5.07
5.18
4.88
4.83
4.73
4.58
4.56
4.60
4.56
4.30
4.07
4.04
3.85
3.84
3.88
3.90
3.85
3.85
3.64
3.58
3.55
3.43
3.42
3.64
5.13
5.24
4.94
4.89
4.79
4.64
4.62
4.65
4.62
4.35
4.13
4.09
3.91
3.89
3.93
3.96
3.91
3.91
3.70
3.63
3.60
3.49
3.49
3.71
5.13
5.23
5.04
4.98
4.90
4.78
4.78
4.81
4.78
4.57
4.37
4.36
4.19
4.17
4.20
4.23
4.17
4.18
3.98
3.92
3.89
3.77
3.73
3.95
5.05
5.15
4.96
4.90
4.82
4.71
4.70
4.74
4.70
4.49
4.29
4.28
4.11
4.09
4.12
4.15
4.10
4.10
3.90
3.84
3.81
3.69
3.66
3.88

January
Dollars per bushel
4.76
4.87
4.57
4.51
4.41
4.25
5.23
4.26
4.22
3.95
3.72
3.67
3.50
3.48
3.53
3.55
3.50
3.51
3.28
3.22
3.19
3.07
2.98
3.20
18-Dec-14
25-Dec-14
1-Jan-15
8-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
29-Jan-15
5-Feb-15
12-Feb-15
19-Feb-15
26-Feb-15
5-Mar-15
12-Mar-15
19-Mar-15
26-Mar-15
2-Apr-15
9-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
23-Apr-15
30-Apr-15
7-May-15
14-May-15
21-May-15
28-May-15
4-Jun-15
11-Jun-15
18-Jun-15
25-Jun-15
2-Jul-15
9-Jul-15
16-Jul-15
23-Jul-15
30-Jul-15
6-Aug-15
13-Aug-15
20-Aug-15
27-Aug-15
2014
Table 4. Actual monthly farm price received by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2014/15
Calendar
Forecast
Release date of
year
period 1/ Ag ricul tu ral Price s 2 /

September
October
November
December
January
February
Dollars per bushel
1-May-14
8-May-14
15-May-14
22-May-14
29-May-14
5-Jun-14
12-Jun-14
19-Jun-14
26-Jun-14
3-Jul-14
10-Jul-14
17-Jul-14
24-Jul-14
31-Jul-14
7-Aug-14
14-Aug-14
21-Aug-14
28-Aug-14
4-Sep-14
11-Sep-14
18-Sep-14
25-Sep-14
2-Oct-14
29-Sep-14
3.38
9-Oct-14
3.38
16-Oct-14
23-Oct-14
30-Oct-14
6-Nov-14
13-Nov-14
20-Nov-14
27-Nov-14
4-Dec-14
11-Dec-14
18-Dec-14
25-Dec-14
2015
1-Jan-15
8-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
29-Jan-15
5-Feb-15
12-Feb-15
19-Feb-15
26-Feb-15
5-Mar-15
12-Mar-15
19-Mar-15
26-Mar-15
2-Apr-15
9-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
23-Apr-15
30-Apr-15
7-May-15
14-May-15
21-May-15
28-May-15
4-Jun-15
11-Jun-15
18-Jun-15
25-Jun-15
2-Jul-15
9-Jul-15
16-Jul-15
23-Jul-15
30-Jul-15
6-Aug-15
13-Aug-15
20-Aug-15
27-Aug-15
1/ Weekly forecast reflects available farm prices received on that date.
2 / Agri cultura l Prices for any gi ven mon th (e.g., Sep te mber) li sts pri ces recei ved in th at mo nth (Septe mber). The l ast p rice li ste d in the ro w i s a m id-mo nth price a nd al l othe rs a re fu ll mon th price s.
March
April
May
June
July
August
2014
Table 5. Composite forecast of futures forecasts and actual price received (when available), by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2014/15
Calendar
Forecast
year
period 1/
September
October
November
December
January
February
Dollars per bushel
2014
1-May-14
4.49
4.54
4.69
4.75
4.76
4.83
8-May-14
4.61
4.66
4.81
4.86
4.87
4.94
15-May-14
4.29
4.34
4.50
4.55
4.57
4.64
22-May-14
4.22
4.27
4.43
4.50
4.51
4.58
29-May-14
4.12
4.17
4.32
4.39
4.41
4.48
5-Jun-14
3.96
4.01
4.17
4.24
4.25
4.32
12-Jun-14
3.93
3.97
4.13
5.21
5.23
5.30
19-Jun-14
3.96
4.01
4.17
4.25
4.26
4.33
26-Jun-14
3.92
3.97
4.13
4.21
4.22
4.29
3-Jul-14
3.64
3.69
3.85
3.94
3.95
4.02
10-Jul-14
3.42
3.46
3.62
3.71
3.72
3.79
17-Jul-14
3.36
3.41
3.57
3.66
3.67
3.74
24-Jul-14
3.18
3.23
3.39
3.48
3.50
3.57
31-Jul-14
3.16
3.21
3.36
3.46
3.48
3.55
7-Aug-14
3.20
3.25
3.41
3.51
3.53
3.60
14-Aug-14
3.22
3.27
3.43
3.54
3.55
3.62
21-Aug-14
3.18
3.23
3.38
3.49
3.50
3.57
28-Aug-14
3.18
3.23
3.39
3.49
3.51
3.58
4-Sep-14
2.95
3.00
3.16
3.26
3.28
3.35
11-Sep-14
2.90
2.95
3.10
3.20
3.22
3.29
18-Sep-14
2.87
2.92
3.08
3.18
3.19
3.26
25-Sep-14
2.75
2.80
2.95
3.06
3.07
3.14
2-Oct-14
3.38
2.76
2.84
2.97
2.98
3.04
9-Oct-14
3.38
2.98
3.06
3.19
3.20
3.26
16-Oct-14
23-Oct-14
30-Oct-14
6-Nov-14
13-Nov-14
20-Nov-14
27-Nov-14
4-Dec-14
11-Dec-14
18-Dec-14
25-Dec-14
2015
1-Jan-15
8-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
29-Jan-15
5-Feb-15
12-Feb-15
19-Feb-15
26-Feb-15
5-Mar-15
12-Mar-15
19-Mar-15
26-Mar-15
2-Apr-15
9-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
23-Apr-15
30-Apr-15
7-May-15
14-May-15
21-May-15
28-May-15
4-Jun-15
11-Jun-15
18-Jun-15
25-Jun-15
2-Jul-15
9-Jul-15
16-Jul-15
23-Jul-15
30-Jul-15
6-Aug-15
13-Aug-15
20-Aug-15
27-Aug-15
1/ Weekly forecast reflects settlement futures prices and/or available farm prices received on that date.
March
April
May
June
July
August
4.83
4.94
4.63
4.58
4.48
4.33
4.31
4.34
4.30
4.03
3.81
3.76
3.58
3.57
3.61
3.64
3.59
3.59
3.37
3.31
3.28
3.16
3.05
3.28
4.97
5.08
4.77
4.72
4.62
4.47
4.45
4.48
4.44
4.17
3.95
3.91
3.73
3.71
3.76
3.78
3.73
3.74
3.51
3.45
3.42
3.31
3.22
3.44
5.07
5.18
4.88
4.83
4.73
4.58
4.56
4.60
4.56
4.30
4.07
4.04
3.85
3.84
3.88
3.90
3.85
3.85
3.64
3.58
3.55
3.43
3.42
3.64
5.13
5.24
4.94
4.89
4.79
4.64
4.62
4.65
4.62
4.35
4.13
4.09
3.91
3.89
3.93
3.96
3.91
3.91
3.70
3.63
3.60
3.49
3.49
3.71
5.13
5.23
5.04
4.98
4.90
4.78
4.78
4.81
4.78
4.57
4.37
4.36
4.19
4.17
4.20
4.23
4.17
4.18
3.98
3.92
3.89
3.77
3.73
3.95
5.05
5.15
4.96
4.90
4.82
4.71
4.70
4.74
4.70
4.49
4.29
4.28
4.11
4.09
4.12
4.15
4.10
4.10
3.90
3.84
3.81
3.69
3.66
3.88
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
0.33
0.34
0.32
0.31
0.31
0.30
0.36
0.30
0.29
0.28
0.26
0.26
0.24
0.24
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.23
0.24
0.40
0.41
0.39
0.38
0.37
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.34
0.32
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.25
0.27
0.30
0.30
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.25
0.24
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.21
0.31
0.32
0.30
0.29
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.24
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.18
0.19
0.32
0.33
0.31
0.31
0.30
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.27
0.26
0.26
0.24
0.24
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.22
0.34
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.32
0.32
0.32
0.32
0.32
0.30
0.29
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.25
0.24
0.25
0.30
0.30
0.29
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.22
Table 6. Composite forecast/actual monthly farm price received weighted by percentage of monthly marketings by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2014/15
Calendar
Forecast
Marketing-weight average
year
period 1/
September
October
November
December
January
Dollars per bushel
2014
1-May-14 Mkt. wt. = 5-year avg. 2008-2012 mkt. yr.
0.33
0.57
0.53
0.43
0.66
8-May-14
0.34
0.58
0.55
0.44
0.67
15-May-14
0.32
0.54
0.51
0.41
0.63
22-May-14
0.31
0.54
0.50
0.40
0.62
29-May-14
0.30
0.52
0.49
0.40
0.61
5-Jun-14
0.29
0.50
0.47
0.38
0.59
12-Jun-14
0.29
0.50
0.47
0.47
0.72
19-Jun-14
0.29
0.50
0.47
0.38
0.59
26-Jun-14
0.29
0.50
0.47
0.38
0.58
3-Jul-14
0.27
0.46
0.44
0.35
0.55
10-Jul-14
0.25
0.43
0.41
0.33
0.51
17-Jul-14
0.25
0.43
0.40
0.33
0.51
24-Jul-14
0.23
0.41
0.38
0.31
0.48
31-Jul-14
0.23
0.40
0.38
0.31
0.48
7-Aug-14
0.23
0.41
0.39
0.32
0.49
14-Aug-14
0.24
0.41
0.39
0.32
0.49
21-Aug-14
0.23
0.40
0.38
0.31
0.48
28-Aug-14
0.23
0.40
0.38
0.31
0.48
4-Sep-14
0.22
0.38
0.36
0.29
0.45
11-Sep-14
0.21
0.37
0.35
0.29
0.44
18-Sep-14
0.21
0.37
0.35
0.29
0.44
25-Sep-14
0.20
0.35
0.33
0.28
0.42
2-Oct-14 Mkt. wt. = 5-year avg. 2009-2013 mkt. yr.
0.25
0.36
0.32
0.27
0.42
9-Oct-14
0.25
0.39
0.35
0.29
0.45
16-Oct-14
23-Oct-14
30-Oct-14
6-Nov-14
13-Nov-14
20-Nov-14
27-Nov-14
4-Dec-14
11-Dec-14
18-Dec-14
25-Dec-14
2015
1-Jan-15
8-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
29-Jan-15
5-Feb-15
12-Feb-15
19-Feb-15
26-Feb-15
5-Mar-15
12-Mar-15
19-Mar-15
26-Mar-15
2-Apr-15
9-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
23-Apr-15
30-Apr-15
7-May-15
14-May-15
21-May-15
28-May-15
4-Jun-15
11-Jun-15
18-Jun-15
25-Jun-15
2-Jul-15
9-Jul-15
16-Jul-15
23-Jul-15
30-Jul-15
6-Aug-15
13-Aug-15
20-Aug-15
27-Aug-15
Table 7. Futures forecast of season-average price received (SAP) and implied price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2014/15
Cal end ar
ye ar
Fo recast peri od
1/
2014
1-May-14
8-May-14
15-May-14
22-May-14
29-May-14
5-Jun-14
12-Jun-14
19-Jun-14
26-Jun-14
3-Jul-14
10-Jul-14
17-Jul-14
24-Jul-14
31-Jul-14
7-Aug-14
14-Aug-14
21-Aug-14
28-Aug-14
4-Sep-14
11-Sep-14
18-Sep-14
25-Sep-14
2-Oct-14
9-Oct-14
16-Oct-14
Futures SAP forecast
Mi dpo int of th e
WASDE SAP
pro jectio n
Dollars per bushel

4.81
4.92
4.63
4.57
4.47
4.32
4.59
4.33
4.29
4.03
3.80
3.76
3.58
3.56
3.60
3.63
3.58
3.58
3.36
3.30
3.28
3.16
3.13
3.33
#N/A
Dollars per bushel

4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
3.90
3.90
3.90
3.90
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.40
#N/A
WASDE release date Actu al SAP (avai lab le

in Octo ber 20 15)
9-May-14
11-Jun-14
11-Jul-14
12-Aug-14
11-Sep-14
10-Oct-14
Reference Price
N ation al
ma rketing
assi sta nce
l oan ra te
Future s
PLC
payme nt
ra te fore cast
Dollars per bushel

3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
Dollars per bushel

1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
Dollars per bushel

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.14
0.10
0.07
0.12
0.12
0.34
0.40
0.42
0.54
0.57
0.37
#N/A
WASDE
PLC
p aymen t
rate
p roje ction
Dollars per bushel
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.30 End of Data
#N/A
2015
23-Oct-14
30-Oct-14
6-Nov-14
13-Nov-14
20-Nov-14
27-Nov-14
4-Dec-14
11-Dec-14
18-Dec-14
25-Dec-14
1-Jan-15
8-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
29-Jan-15
5-Feb-15
12-Feb-15
19-Feb-15
26-Feb-15
5-Mar-15
12-Mar-15
19-Mar-15
26-Mar-15
2-Apr-15
9-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
23-Apr-15
30-Apr-15
7-May-15
14-May-15
21-May-15
28-May-15
4-Jun-15
11-Jun-15
18-Jun-15
25-Jun-15
2-Jul-15
9-Jul-15
16-Jul-15
23-Jul-15
30-Jul-15
6-Aug-15
13-Aug-15
20-Aug-15
27-Aug-15
#NA = Not available.

1/ Date on which the settlement prices are observed.
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
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#N/A
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#N/A
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#N/A
#N/A
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#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
#N/A
#N/A
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#N/A
2013/14 forecast
Weekly forecast of the corn season-average farm price received and implied counter-cyclical payment (CCP) rate for crop year 2013/14:
T he user ma y change the weekly fore cast by going to the c hange forecast workshee t.
Explanation of forecast (table 1)
Explanation of detailed computational steps for the weekly forecasts for the marketing year (tables 2 through 7)
Weekly forecast of the corn season-average farm price received and implied counter-cyclical payment (CCP) rate for crop year 2013/14:
Date of weekly forecast
28-Aug-14
Season-av erage farm price receiv ed
CCP rate
Dollars per bushel

Futures model forecast
4.46
0.00
Midpoint of WASDE projection
4.45
0.00
Explanation of forecast (table 1):

Step # 1 ente rs the most rec ent Thursday's settlement price from eac h tra ding contract into table 1, column B. T hese
price s provide a futures price for eac h month as found in column C.
Step # 2 calculates a monthly price forecast found in column E by adding a moving 5-year average basis found in c olumn
D to the monthly futures pric e found in column C. Column F reflects, w hen available, a ctual monthly farm prices re ceived
by U.S. produc ers.
Step # 3 inserts an actual monthly price received by farmers into column F, if available. Initia lly, this is a mid-month pric e
Step # 4 computes each months price weight, as found in column I, and is a product of c olumns G and H. Column G
reflec ts a composite forecast de rived from fa rm price s received or futures prices. Column H reflects e ach months 5-yearmoving-a verage monthly marketing weight.
Step # 6 calculates the counter-cyclical payment rate (target price less the effective price).
28-Aug-14
Table 1. Futures model forecast of U.S. corn producers' season-av erage price receiv ed and CCP rate, marketing year 2013/14
Step # 1
(Col. A)
(Col. B)
Ma rketing
yea r month
1/
Step # 2
(Col. C)
(Col. D)
Step # 3
(Col. F)
(Col. E)
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
4.71
4.71
4.49
3.80
-0.51
-0.46
-0.31
December
January
February
-0.33
-0.32
-0.25
March
April
-0.31
-0.17
May
-0.12
June
-0.06
July
August
3.62
3.62
September
Step # 4
(Col. H)
(Col. G)
C urren t futures
Fu tu res price b ased
Ba sis (5-yea r U .S.
Mo nthly farm Actu al mon th ly
Comp osite mo nthly
p rice b y trad ing o n nea rby contract 3/
a verag e) pri ce fo reca st
fa rm price , if foreca st actua l/fu tures
co ntract 2 /
avai lab le 4/
-------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel-------------------------------------------------------------------------
September
October
November
0.15
0.07
3.76
3.69
3.62
(Col. I)
Mo nthly marke ting

we igh ts (5-ye ar U.S.
a ve rage )
Percent
Monthl y p rice
w eig ht
Dollars per bushel
5.40
7.3
0.396
4.61
4.35
12.5
11.3
0.578
0.493
4.41
4.42
4.35
9.0
13.8
6.8
0.397
0.610
0.298
4.51
4.71
8.3
6.0
0.376
0.282
4.71
6.1
4.49
6.2
3.80
3.69
6.6
5.9
Sum of weights =
0.287
0.280
0.251
0.217
100.0
Forecast of season-av erage price receiv ed:

Forecast of counter cyclical payment rate:

Step # 6
CCP rate ($/bu.)
0.00
Effective price ($/bu.)
4.74
Target price ($/bu.)
Direct payment rate

0.28
4.46
2.63
+
4.74
the larger of
[National average price

received for mktg yr.
4.46
or
National average]
loan rate
1.95

The CCP rate will be positive if the futures forecast of the season-average price received falls below the CCP trigger pric e
of $2.35/bu.
The CCP rate will be ze ro if the futures fore cast of the season-a verage price rec eived equals or exceeds the CCP trigger
price of $2.35/bu.
Fig ur e 1. Futur es for eca st o f U.S. c orn p roduce rs ' se aso n-a ver age price r ec eived (SAP ) and C C P rate , mar ket ing yea r 20 13/14
8. 50
0. 45
8. 00
0. 40
7. 50
Ac tua l S AP ( av ai l ab le
in Oc to be r 2 0 14 )
Fu tur es SAP f o re ca st
M id po in t o f the WASD E SAP pr oj ec ti o n
7. 00
0. 35
C CP tri g ge r pr i ce
N at io na l a ve ra g e lo an ra te
Fu tur es CCP ra te f or e ca s t
6. 50
CCP Ra te (Do ll a rs p e r Bush el )
S ea so n -a ve ra ge pri ce re cei ve d (Do l la rs pe r b ush el )
The CCP rate will be at its ma ximum of $0.40/bu. w hen the futures fore cast of the season-ave rage price rec eive d is less
than or equal to the nationa l a verage loan rate of $1.95/bu.
WA SDE C CP rat e p ro j ec ti on
6. 00
0. 30
5. 50
0. 25
5. 00
4. 50
0. 20
4. 00
3. 50
0. 15
3. 00
0. 10
2. 50
2. 00
0. 05
1. 50
1. 00
0. 00
Forecast perio d
Explanation of de tailed compu tation al steps for the w eekly future s model forecasts (table 2 through 7)
Step # 1 enters ea ch Thursda ys se ttlement price from each trading contra ct for the respe ctive marketing year' s month.
Prices are taken from Da ta!table1 a nd ente red into table 2.
Step # 2 ca lcula tes a monthly price-received foreca st and e nters into table 3. This forecast is the sum of a 5-year ave rage
monthly basis from Data! Table 8 and the futures price in table 2.
Step # 3 inserts a monthly pric e received, if ava ila ble, from Data! T able 4 into ta ble 4. Initially, this is a mid-month price
Step # 4 computes each months pric e received foreca st, weighte d by pe rcentage of monthly marketings, and inserts into
table 6. It is a produc t of the monthly composite forecast in ta ble 5 times a 5-yea r average of monthly marketing weight
from Data! Table 10.
Step # 5 computes the we ekly forecasts for season-ave rage price rec eive d and enters them into table 7. Eac h wee kly
forecast is a summation of that we ek' s pric e weights (table 6) for each month of the marketing ye ar.
Step # 6 ca lcula tes forecasts of the counter-cyc lical pa yme nt ra te (target price less the effective price) and enters them into
table 7. Polic y pa rameters are in Data ! Table 13.
Table 2. Weekly nearby futures price by marketing year month, marketing year 2013/14
Calendar
Forecast
year
period 1/
September
October
November
2013
2014
2-May-13
9-May-13
16-May-13
23-May-13
30-May-13
6-Jun-13
13-Jun-13
20-Jun-13
27-Jun-13
4-Jul-13
11-Jul-13
18-Jul-13
25-Jul-13
1-Aug-13
8-Aug-13
15-Aug-13
22-Aug-13
29-Aug-13
5-Sep-13
12-Sep-13
19-Sep-13
26-Sep-13
3-Oct-13
10-Oct-13
17-Oct-13
24-Oct-13
31-Oct-13
7-Nov-13
14-Nov-13
21-Nov-13
28-Nov-13
5-Dec-13
12-Dec-13
19-Dec-13
26-Dec-13
2-Jan-14
9-Jan-14
16-Jan-14
23-Jan-14
30-Jan-14
6-Feb-14
13-Feb-14
20-Feb-14
27-Feb-14
6-Mar-14
13-Mar-14
20-Mar-14
27-Mar-14
3-Apr-14
10-Apr-14
17-Apr-14
24-Apr-14
1-May-14
8-May-14
15-May-14
22-May-14
29-May-14
5-Jun-14
12-Jun-14
19-Jun-14
26-Jun-14
3-Jul-14
10-Jul-14
17-Jul-14
24-Jul-14
31-Jul-14
7-Aug-14
14-Aug-14
21-Aug-14
28-Aug-14
5.59
5.42
5.24
5.35
5.63
5.48
5.35
5.61
5.39
5.03
5.27
5.01
4.79
4.67
4.60
4.72
4.65
4.82
4.61
4.66
4.60
4.57
4.40
4.38
4.43
4.40
4.28
4.21
4.27
4.23
4.17
5.59
5.42
5.24
5.35
5.63
5.48
5.35
5.61
5.39
5.03
5.27
5.01
4.79
4.67
4.60
4.72
4.65
4.82
4.61
4.66
4.60
4.57
4.40
4.38
4.43
4.40
4.28
4.21
4.27
4.23
4.17
5.59
5.42
5.24
5.35
5.63
5.48
5.35
5.61
5.39
5.03
5.27
5.01
4.79
4.67
4.60
4.72
4.65
4.82
4.61
4.66
4.60
4.57
4.40
4.38
4.43
4.40
4.28
4.21
4.27
4.23
4.17
December
5.69
5.52
5.34
5.46
5.73
5.59
5.47
5.71
5.49
5.15
5.39
5.13
4.91
4.80
4.73
4.85
4.77
4.94
4.74
4.79
4.72
4.70
4.52
4.51
4.56
4.53
4.39
4.32
4.37
4.30
4.27
4.34
4.34
4.31
4.26
4.21
4.12
4.28
4.29
4.34
4.43
4.41
4.56
4.48

January
February
Dollars per bushel
5.69
5.69
5.52
5.52
5.34
5.34
5.46
5.46
5.73
5.73
5.59
5.59
5.47
5.47
5.71
5.71
5.49
5.49
5.15
5.15
5.39
5.39
5.13
5.13
4.91
4.91
4.80
4.80
4.73
4.73
4.85
4.85
4.77
4.77
4.94
4.94
4.74
4.74
4.79
4.79
4.72
4.72
4.70
4.70
4.52
4.52
4.51
4.51
4.56
4.56
4.53
4.53
4.39
4.39
4.32
4.32
4.37
4.37
4.30
4.30
4.27
4.27
4.34
4.34
4.34
4.34
4.31
4.31
4.26
4.26
4.21
4.21
4.12
4.12
4.28
4.28
4.29
4.29
4.34
4.34
4.43
4.43
4.41
4.41
4.56
4.56
4.48
4.48
March
April
May
June
July
August
5.77
5.59
5.42
5.53
5.80
5.66
5.54
5.78
5.56
5.23
5.47
5.21
4.99
4.88
4.82
4.93
4.85
5.02
4.83
4.87
4.80
4.78
4.60
4.60
4.64
4.61
4.48
4.40
4.45
4.38
4.35
4.42
4.43
4.39
4.35
4.29
4.20
4.36
4.35
4.40
4.49
4.47
4.62
4.55
4.91
4.85
4.79
4.92
5.00
5.01
4.95
5.01
5.77
5.59
5.42
5.53
5.80
5.66
5.54
5.78
5.56
5.23
5.47
5.21
4.99
4.88
4.82
4.93
4.85
5.02
4.83
4.87
4.80
4.78
4.60
4.60
4.64
4.61
4.48
4.40
4.45
4.38
4.35
4.42
4.43
4.39
4.35
4.29
4.20
4.36
4.35
4.40
4.49
4.47
4.62
4.55
4.91
4.85
4.79
4.92
5.00
5.01
4.95
5.01
5.84
5.66
5.49
5.61
5.86
5.73
5.61
5.85
5.63
5.30
5.53
5.27
5.06
4.93
4.87
4.99
4.91
5.08
4.89
4.94
4.87
4.84
4.68
4.67
4.71
4.69
4.54
4.47
4.52
4.45
4.42
4.49
4.49
4.46
4.42
4.36
4.28
4.42
4.41
4.44
4.54
4.51
4.67
4.59
4.95
4.89
4.84
4.96
5.05
5.07
5.01
5.07
5.07
5.17
4.84
4.77
4.70
4.49
4.44
4.51
4.43
5.84
5.66
5.49
5.61
5.86
5.73
5.61
5.85
5.63
5.30
5.53
5.27
5.06
4.93
4.87
4.99
4.91
5.08
4.89
4.94
4.87
4.84
4.68
4.67
4.71
4.69
4.54
4.47
4.52
4.45
4.42
4.49
4.49
4.46
4.42
4.36
4.28
4.42
4.41
4.44
4.54
4.51
4.67
4.59
4.95
4.89
4.84
4.96
5.05
5.07
5.01
5.07
5.07
5.17
4.84
4.77
4.70
4.49
4.44
4.51
4.43
5.66
5.50
5.41
5.52
5.70
5.64
5.53
5.74
5.54
5.30
5.50
5.26
5.08
4.95
4.91
5.03
4.94
5.10
4.92
4.98
4.91
4.87
4.73
4.73
4.76
4.75
4.61
4.53
4.59
4.50
4.48
4.55
4.55
4.52
4.48
4.45
4.34
4.47
4.45
4.46
4.55
4.52
4.67
4.59
4.91
4.86
4.82
4.92
5.03
5.07
4.98
5.05
5.03
5.13
4.81
4.74
4.63
4.44
4.40
4.44
4.39
4.10
3.86
3.80
3.62
3.57
3.60
3.62
3.62
3.62
5.66
5.50
5.41
5.52
5.70
5.64
5.53
5.74
5.54
5.30
5.50
5.26
5.08
4.95
4.91
5.03
4.94
5.10
4.92
4.98
4.91
4.87
4.73
4.73
4.76
4.75
4.61
4.53
4.59
4.50
4.48
4.55
4.55
4.52
4.48
4.45
4.34
4.47
4.45
4.46
4.55
4.52
4.67
4.59
4.91
4.86
4.82
4.92
5.03
5.07
4.98
5.05
5.03
5.13
4.81
4.74
4.63
4.44
4.40
4.44
4.39
4.10
3.86
3.80
3.62
3.57
3.60
3.62
3.62
3.62
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
5.32
5.15
4.98
5.09
5.36
5.22
5.10
5.34
5.13
4.78
5.03
4.76
4.55
4.43
4.37
4.48
4.40
4.58
4.37
4.42
4.35
4.33
4.27
4.26
4.31
4.28
4.15
4.07
4.12
4.05
4.02
4.09
4.10
5.29
5.12
4.94
5.06
5.32
5.19
5.07
5.31
5.09
4.75
4.99
4.73
4.52
4.40
4.34
4.45
4.38
4.55
4.35
4.39
4.33
4.30
4.29
4.28
4.33
4.30
4.16
4.09
4.14
4.06
4.04
4.11
4.11
5.35
5.17
5.00
5.11
5.37
5.24
5.12
5.36
5.14
4.80
5.05
4.79
4.57
4.45
4.39
4.50
4.43
4.60
4.40
4.45
4.38
4.35
4.43
4.43
4.47
4.44
4.31
4.23
4.28
4.21
4.18
4.25
4.26
5.48
5.30
5.13
5.25
5.50
5.37
5.25
5.49
5.27
4.94
5.17
4.91
4.70
4.58
4.52
4.63
4.55
4.72
4.53
4.58
4.51
4.48
4.56
4.55
4.59
4.57
4.43
4.35
4.41
4.33
4.30
4.37
4.38
5.40
5.23
5.06
5.17
5.43
5.30
5.18
5.41
5.20
4.86
5.10
4.84
4.62
4.50
4.44
4.56
4.48
4.64
4.46
4.51
4.44
4.41
4.62
4.61
4.65
4.63
4.48
4.41
4.46
4.39
4.36
4.43
4.43
5.26
5.10
5.01
5.12
5.30
5.24
5.13
5.34
5.14
4.90
5.10
4.86
4.68
4.55
4.51
4.63
4.54
4.70
4.52
4.58
4.51
4.47
4.88
4.88
4.91
4.90
4.75
4.67
4.73
4.65
4.63
4.70
4.70
5.40
5.24
5.15
5.26
5.45
5.38
5.28
5.49
5.28
5.05
5.24
5.00
4.82
4.69
4.65
4.78
4.69
4.85
4.67
4.73
4.66
4.61
4.80
4.80
4.83
4.82
4.68
4.60
4.66
4.57
4.55
4.62
4.62
Table 3. Monthly price-received forecast (nearby futures price plus the basis) by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2013/14
Calendar
Forecast
Basis average
year
period 1/
September
October
November
2013
2-May-13 Basis= 5-year avg. 2007-2011 mkt. yr.

9-May-13
16-May-13
23-May-13
30-May-13
6-Jun-13
13-Jun-13
20-Jun-13
27-Jun-13
4-Jul-13
11-Jul-13
18-Jul-13
25-Jul-13
1-Aug-13
8-Aug-13
15-Aug-13
22-Aug-13
29-Aug-13
5-Sep-13
12-Sep-13
19-Sep-13
26-Sep-13
3-Oct-13 Basis=5-year avg. 2008-2012 mkt. yr.
10-Oct-13
17-Oct-13
24-Oct-13
31-Oct-13
7-Nov-13
14-Nov-13
21-Nov-13
28-Nov-13
5-Dec-13
12-Dec-13
5.17
4.99
4.82
4.93
5.21
5.06
4.93
5.18
4.96
4.61
4.85
4.59
4.37
4.25
4.18
4.30
4.22
4.39
4.19
4.24
4.17
4.15
3.89
3.87
3.92
3.89
3.77
3.69
3.75
3.72
3.66
5.21
5.04
4.86
4.97
5.25
5.11
4.98
5.23
5.01
4.65
4.89
4.63
4.41
4.29
4.22
4.35
4.27
4.44
4.23
4.29
4.22
4.19
3.93
3.92
3.97
3.94
3.82
3.74
3.80
3.77
3.71
5.28
5.11
4.93
5.04
5.32
5.18
5.05
5.30
5.08
4.72
4.96
4.70
4.48
4.36
4.29
4.42
4.34
4.51
4.30
4.36
4.29
4.26
4.09
4.08
4.12
4.10
3.98
3.90
3.96
3.92
3.87
December
5.31
5.14
4.97
5.08
5.35
5.21
5.09
5.33
5.12
4.77
5.02
4.75
4.54
4.42
4.36
4.47
4.39
4.57
4.36
4.41
4.34
4.32
4.19
4.18
4.22
4.19
4.06
3.98
4.03
3.96
3.93
4.00
4.01

January
Dollars per bushel
5.23
5.05
4.88
4.99
5.26
5.12
5.00
5.25
5.03
4.68
4.93
4.67
4.45
4.33
4.27
4.38
4.31
4.48
4.28
4.32
4.26
4.23
4.20
4.19
4.24
4.21
4.08
4.00
4.05
3.98
3.95
4.02
4.03
2014
19-Dec-13
26-Dec-13
2-Jan-14
9-Jan-14
16-Jan-14
23-Jan-14
30-Jan-14
6-Feb-14
13-Feb-14
20-Feb-14
27-Feb-14
6-Mar-14
13-Mar-14
20-Mar-14
27-Mar-14
3-Apr-14
10-Apr-14
17-Apr-14
24-Apr-14
1-May-14
8-May-14
15-May-14
22-May-14
29-May-14
5-Jun-14
12-Jun-14
19-Jun-14
26-Jun-14
3-Jul-14
10-Jul-14
17-Jul-14
24-Jul-14
31-Jul-14
7-Aug-14
14-Aug-14
21-Aug-14
28-Aug-14
3.97
3.93
3.87
3.79
3.95
3.96
4.00
4.10
4.07
4.23
4.15
3.99
3.95
3.89
3.80
3.96
3.97
4.02
4.12
4.09
4.24
4.16
4.06
4.02
3.96
3.87
4.03
4.04
4.09
4.19
4.16
4.31
4.23
4.07
4.03
3.98
3.89
4.04
4.04
4.08
4.17
4.15
4.31
4.23
4.60
4.54
4.47
4.61
4.69
4.70
4.64
4.70
4.22
4.18
4.12
4.03
4.19
4.18
4.23
4.32
4.30
4.45
4.38
4.74
4.68
4.62
4.75
4.83
4.84
4.78
4.84
4.34
4.30
4.24
4.16
4.30
4.30
4.32
4.42
4.39
4.55
4.47
4.84
4.77
4.72
4.85
4.94
4.95
4.89
4.95
4.95
5.05
4.73
4.65
4.58
4.37
4.32
4.39
4.31
4.40
4.36
4.30
4.22
4.36
4.35
4.38
4.48
4.45
4.61
4.53
4.89
4.83
4.78
4.90
4.99
5.01
4.95
5.01
5.01
5.11
4.78
4.71
4.64
4.43
4.38
4.45
4.37
4.66
4.62
4.60
4.49
4.61
4.59
4.61
4.70
4.67
4.81
4.73
5.05
5.01
4.96
5.06
5.17
5.22
5.13
5.20
5.17
5.28
4.96
4.89
4.78
4.59
4.55
4.59
4.54
4.24
4.01
3.94
3.76
3.72
3.74
3.77
3.77
3.76
4.58
4.55
4.52
4.41
4.53
4.51
4.53
4.62
4.59
4.73
4.65
4.97
4.93
4.88
4.98
5.10
5.14
5.05
5.12
5.10
5.20
4.88
4.81
4.70
4.51
4.47
4.51
4.46
4.16
3.93
3.86
3.68
3.64
3.66
3.69
3.69
3.69
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
4.47
4.47
4.47
4.47
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.54
4.54
4.54
4.54
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.73
4.73
4.73
4.73
4.73
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.49
4.49
4.49
4.49
3.80
3.80
3.80
3.80
Table 4. Actual monthly farm price received by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2013/14
Calendar
Forecast
Release date of
year
period 1/ Ag ricul tu ral Price s 2 /
September
2013
2014
2-May-13
9-May-13
16-May-13
23-May-13
30-May-13
6-Jun-13
13-Jun-13
20-Jun-13
27-Jun-13
4-Jul-13
11-Jul-13
18-Jul-13
25-Jul-13
1-Aug-13
8-Aug-13
15-Aug-13
22-Aug-13
29-Aug-13
5-Sep-13
12-Sep-13
19-Sep-13
26-Sep-13
3-Oct-13
10-Oct-13
17-Oct-13
24-Oct-13
31-Oct-13
7-Nov-13
14-Nov-13
21-Nov-13
28-Nov-13
5-Dec-13
12-Dec-13
19-Dec-13
26-Dec-13
2-Jan-14
9-Jan-14
16-Jan-14
23-Jan-14
30-Jan-14
6-Feb-14
13-Feb-14
20-Feb-14
27-Feb-14
6-Mar-14
13-Mar-14
20-Mar-14
27-Mar-14
3-Apr-14
10-Apr-14
17-Apr-14
24-Apr-14
1-May-14
8-May-14
15-May-14
22-May-14
29-May-14
5-Jun-14
12-Jun-14
19-Jun-14
26-Jun-14
3-Jul-14
10-Jul-14
17-Jul-14
24-Jul-14
31-Jul-14
7-Aug-14
14-Aug-14
21-Aug-14
28-Aug-14
27-Sep-13
5.28
5.28
5.28
5.28
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
5.40
31-Oct-13
27-Nov-13
30-Dec-13
31-Jan-14
28-Feb-14
28-Mar-14
30-Apr-14
30-May-14
27-Jun-14
31-Jul-14
October
November
December
4.49
4.49
4.49
4.49
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.61
4.29
4.29
4.29
4.29
4.29
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.31
4.31
4.31
4.31
4.31
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41

January
Dollars per bushel
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42

Table 5. Composite forecast of futures forecasts and actual price received (when available), by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2013/14
Calendar
Forecast
year
period 1/
September
October
November
December
January
February
Dollars per bushel
2013
2-May-13
5.17
5.21
5.28
5.31
5.23
5.32
9-May-13
4.99
5.04
5.11
5.14
5.05
5.15
16-May-13
4.82
4.86
4.93
4.97
4.88
4.98
23-May-13
4.93
4.97
5.04
5.08
4.99
5.09
30-May-13
5.21
5.25
5.32
5.35
5.26
5.36
6-Jun-13
5.06
5.11
5.18
5.21
5.12
5.22
13-Jun-13
4.93
4.98
5.05
5.09
5.00
5.10
20-Jun-13
5.18
5.23
5.30
5.33
5.25
5.34
27-Jun-13
4.96
5.01
5.08
5.12
5.03
5.13
4-Jul-13
4.61
4.65
4.72
4.77
4.68
4.78
11-Jul-13
4.85
4.89
4.96
5.02
4.93
5.03
18-Jul-13
4.59
4.63
4.70
4.75
4.67
4.76
25-Jul-13
4.37
4.41
4.48
4.54
4.45
4.55
1-Aug-13
4.25
4.29
4.36
4.42
4.33
4.43
8-Aug-13
4.18
4.22
4.29
4.36
4.27
4.37
15-Aug-13
4.30
4.35
4.42
4.47
4.38
4.48
22-Aug-13
4.22
4.27
4.34
4.39
4.31
4.40
29-Aug-13
4.39
4.44
4.51
4.57
4.48
4.58
5-Sep-13
4.19
4.23
4.30
4.36
4.28
4.37
12-Sep-13
4.24
4.29
4.36
4.41
4.32
4.42
19-Sep-13
4.17
4.22
4.29
4.34
4.26
4.35
26-Sep-13
4.15
4.19
4.26
4.32
4.23
4.33
3-Oct-13
5.28
3.93
4.09
4.19
4.20
4.27
10-Oct-13
5.28
3.92
4.08
4.18
4.19
4.26
17-Oct-13
5.28
3.97
4.12
4.22
4.24
4.31
24-Oct-13
5.28
3.94
4.10
4.19
4.21
4.28
31-Oct-13
5.28
4.49
3.98
4.06
4.08
4.15
7-Nov-13
5.40
4.49
3.90
3.98
4.00
4.07
14-Nov-13
5.40
4.49
3.96
4.03
4.05
4.12
21-Nov-13
5.40
4.49
3.92
3.96
3.98
4.05
28-Nov-13
5.40
4.61
4.29
3.93
3.95
4.02
5-Dec-13
5.40
4.61
4.29
4.00
4.02
4.09
12-Dec-13
5.40
4.61
4.29
4.01
4.03
4.10
19-Dec-13
5.40
4.61
4.29
3.97
3.99
4.06
26-Dec-13
5.40
4.61
4.29
3.93
3.95
4.02
2014
2-Jan-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.31
3.89
3.96
9-Jan-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.31
3.80
3.87
16-Jan-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.31
3.96
4.03
23-Jan-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.31
3.97
4.04
30-Jan-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.31
4.02
4.09
6-Feb-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.37
4.19
13-Feb-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.37
4.16
20-Feb-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.37
4.31
27-Feb-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.37
4.23
6-Mar-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.47
13-Mar-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.47
20-Mar-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.47
27-Mar-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.47
3-Apr-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
10-Apr-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
17-Apr-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
24-Apr-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
1-May-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
8-May-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
15-May-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
22-May-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
29-May-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
5-Jun-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
12-Jun-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
19-Jun-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
26-Jun-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
3-Jul-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
10-Jul-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
17-Jul-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
24-Jul-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
31-Jul-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
7-Aug-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
14-Aug-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
21-Aug-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
28-Aug-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
March
April
May
June
July
August
5.29
5.12
4.94
5.06
5.32
5.19
5.07
5.31
5.09
4.75
4.99
4.73
4.52
4.40
4.34
4.45
4.38
4.55
4.35
4.39
4.33
4.30
4.29
4.28
4.33
4.30
4.16
4.09
4.14
4.06
4.04
4.11
4.11
4.07
4.03
3.98
3.89
4.04
4.04
4.08
4.17
4.15
4.31
4.23
4.60
4.54
4.47
4.61
4.54
4.54
4.54
4.54
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
5.35
5.17
5.00
5.11
5.37
5.24
5.12
5.36
5.14
4.80
5.05
4.79
4.57
4.45
4.39
4.50
4.43
4.60
4.40
4.45
4.38
4.35
4.43
4.43
4.47
4.44
4.31
4.23
4.28
4.21
4.18
4.25
4.26
4.22
4.18
4.12
4.03
4.19
4.18
4.23
4.32
4.30
4.45
4.38
4.74
4.68
4.62
4.75
4.83
4.84
4.78
4.84
4.73
4.73
4.73
4.73
4.73
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
5.48
5.30
5.13
5.25
5.50
5.37
5.25
5.49
5.27
4.94
5.17
4.91
4.70
4.58
4.52
4.63
4.55
4.72
4.53
4.58
4.51
4.48
4.56
4.55
4.59
4.57
4.43
4.35
4.41
4.33
4.30
4.37
4.38
4.34
4.30
4.24
4.16
4.30
4.30
4.32
4.42
4.39
4.55
4.47
4.84
4.77
4.72
4.85
4.94
4.95
4.89
4.95
4.95
5.05
4.73
4.65
4.58
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
5.40
5.23
5.06
5.17
5.43
5.30
5.18
5.41
5.20
4.86
5.10
4.84
4.62
4.50
4.44
4.56
4.48
4.64
4.46
4.51
4.44
4.41
4.62
4.61
4.65
4.63
4.48
4.41
4.46
4.39
4.36
4.43
4.43
4.40
4.36
4.30
4.22
4.36
4.35
4.38
4.48
4.45
4.61
4.53
4.89
4.83
4.78
4.90
4.99
5.01
4.95
5.01
5.01
5.11
4.78
4.71
4.64
4.43
4.38
4.45
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.49
4.49
4.49
4.49
5.26
5.10
5.01
5.12
5.30
5.24
5.13
5.34
5.14
4.90
5.10
4.86
4.68
4.55
4.51
4.63
4.54
4.70
4.52
4.58
4.51
4.47
4.88
4.88
4.91
4.90
4.75
4.67
4.73
4.65
4.63
4.70
4.70
4.66
4.62
4.60
4.49
4.61
4.59
4.61
4.70
4.67
4.81
4.73
5.05
5.01
4.96
5.06
5.17
5.22
5.13
5.20
5.17
5.28
4.96
4.89
4.78
4.59
4.55
4.59
4.54
4.24
4.01
3.94
3.76
3.72
3.80
3.80
3.80
3.80
5.40
5.24
5.15
5.26
5.45
5.38
5.28
5.49
5.28
5.05
5.24
5.00
4.82
4.69
4.65
4.78
4.69
4.85
4.67
4.73
4.66
4.61
4.80
4.80
4.83
4.82
4.68
4.60
4.66
4.57
4.55
4.62
4.62
4.58
4.55
4.52
4.41
4.53
4.51
4.53
4.62
4.59
4.73
4.65
4.97
4.93
4.88
4.98
5.10
5.14
5.05
5.12
5.10
5.20
4.88
4.81
4.70
4.51
4.47
4.51
4.46
4.16
3.93
3.86
3.68
3.64
3.66
3.69
3.69
3.69
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
0.38
0.36
0.35
0.36
0.38
0.37
0.36
0.38
0.36
0.34
0.35
0.34
0.32
0.31
0.31
0.32
0.31
0.32
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.43
0.41
0.40
0.41
0.43
0.42
0.41
0.43
0.41
0.38
0.40
0.38
0.37
0.36
0.35
0.36
0.35
0.37
0.35
0.36
0.35
0.35
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.35
0.34
0.35
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.33
0.32
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.35
0.35
0.36
0.35
0.38
0.38
0.37
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.33
0.32
0.31
0.32
0.34
0.33
0.32
0.33
0.32
0.30
0.31
0.30
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.27
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.25
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.27
0.26
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.33
0.32
0.31
0.31
0.33
0.32
0.31
0.33
0.32
0.30
0.31
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.27
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.27
0.30
0.29
0.29
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.34
0.33
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.34
0.33
0.31
0.32
0.30
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.28
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.28
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.32
0.30
0.29
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.35
0.34
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.35
0.34
0.36
0.34
0.33
0.34
0.32
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.30
0.31
0.30
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.32
0.32
0.32
0.32
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.31
0.32
0.31
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.35
0.33
0.32
0.32
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.28
0.26
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.30
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.30
0.28
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.26
0.27
0.26
0.27
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.27
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.27
0.26
0.24
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.21
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
1/ Weekly forecast reflects futures settlement prices and/or available farm prices received on that date.
Table 6. Composite forecast/actual monthly farm price received weighted by percentage of monthly marketings by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2013/14
Calendar
Forecast
Marketing-weight average
year
period 1/
September
October
November
December
January
Dollars per bushel
2013
3-May-12 Mkt. wt.= 5-year avg. 2007-2011 mkt. yr.
0.35
0.63
0.62
0.49
0.75
10-May-12
0.33
0.61
0.60
0.47
0.72
17-May-12
0.32
0.59
0.58
0.46
0.70
24-May-12
0.33
0.60
0.59
0.47
0.71
31-May-12
0.35
0.64
0.62
0.49
0.75
7-Jun-12
0.34
0.62
0.60
0.48
0.73
14-Jun-12
0.33
0.60
0.59
0.47
0.72
21-Jun-12
0.35
0.63
0.62
0.49
0.75
28-Jun-12
0.33
0.61
0.59
0.47
0.72
5-Jul-12
0.31
0.56
0.55
0.44
0.67
12-Jul-12
0.32
0.59
0.58
0.46
0.70
19-Jul-12
0.31
0.56
0.55
0.44
0.67
26-Jul-12
0.29
0.53
0.52
0.42
0.64
2-Aug-12
0.28
0.52
0.51
0.41
0.62
9-Aug-12
0.28
0.51
0.50
0.40
0.61
16-Aug-12
0.29
0.53
0.52
0.41
0.63
23-Aug-12
0.28
0.52
0.51
0.41
0.62
30-Aug-12
0.29
0.54
0.53
0.42
0.64
6-Sep-12
0.28
0.51
0.50
0.40
0.61
13-Sep-12
0.28
0.52
0.51
0.41
0.62
20-Sep-12
0.28
0.51
0.50
0.40
0.61
27-Sep-12
0.28
0.51
0.50
0.40
0.61
4-Oct-12 Mkt. wt.= 5-year avg. 2008-2012 mkt. yr.
0.39
0.49
0.46
0.38
0.58
11-Oct-12
0.39
0.49
0.46
0.38
0.58
18-Oct-12
0.39
0.50
0.47
0.38
0.58
25-Oct-12
0.39
0.49
0.46
0.38
0.58
1-Nov-12
0.39
0.56
0.45
0.37
0.56
8-Nov-12
0.40
0.56
0.44
0.36
0.55
15-Nov-12
0.40
0.56
0.45
0.36
0.56
22-Nov-12
0.40
0.56
0.44
0.36
0.55
29-Nov-12
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.35
0.54
6-Dec-12
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.36
0.55
13-Dec-12
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.36
0.56
20-Dec-12
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.36
0.55
27-Dec-12
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.35
0.54
2014
3-Jan-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.39
0.54
10-Jan-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.39
0.52
17-Jan-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.39
0.55
24-Jan-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.39
0.55
31-Jan-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.39
0.55
7-Feb-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.60
14-Feb-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.60
21-Feb-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.60
28-Feb-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.60
7-Mar-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
14-Mar-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
21-Mar-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
28-Mar-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
4-Apr-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
11-Apr-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
18-Apr-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
25-Apr-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
2-May-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
9-May-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
16-May-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
23-May-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
30-May-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
6-Jun-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
13-Jun-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
20-Jun-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
27-Jun-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
4-Jul-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
11-Jul-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
18-Jul-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
25-Jul-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
1-Aug-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
8-Aug-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
15-Aug-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
22-Aug-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
29-Aug-13
0.40
0.58
0.49
0.40
0.61
Table 7. Futures forecast of season-average price received (SAP) and implied counter-cyclical payment rate by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2013/14
Cal end ar
ye ar
Fo recast peri od
1/
2013
2-May-13
9-May-13
16-May-13
23-May-13
30-May-13
6-Jun-13
13-Jun-13
20-Jun-13
27-Jun-13
4-Jul-13
11-Jul-13
18-Jul-13
25-Jul-13
1-Aug-13
8-Aug-13
15-Aug-13
22-Aug-13
29-Aug-13
5-Sep-13
12-Sep-13
19-Sep-13
26-Sep-13
3-Oct-13
Futures SAP forecast
Dollars per bushel

5.29
5.12
4.96
5.07
5.33
5.20
5.08
5.32
5.10
4.77
5.01
4.75
4.53
4.41
4.35
4.47
4.39
4.56
4.36
4.41
4.34
4.32
4.39
Mi dpo int of th e
WASDE SAP
pro jectio n
Dollars per bushel
4.70
4.70
4.70
4.70
4.70
4.70
4.80
4.80
4.80
4.80
4.80
4.80
4.80
4.80
4.80
4.90
4.90
4.90
4.90
4.80
4.80
4.80
4.80
WASDE release date Actu al SAP (avai lab le

in Octo ber 20 14)
10-May-13
12-Jun-13
11-Jul-13
12-Aug-13
12-Sep-13
CCP trigger price
Dollars per bushel

2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
N ation al
ave ra ge
l oan ra te
Dollars per bushel
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
Future s
C CP ra te
foreca st
Dollars per bushel
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
WASDE
CCP rate
p roje ction
Dollars per bushel
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2014
10-Oct-13
17-Oct-13
24-Oct-13
31-Oct-13
7-Nov-13
14-Nov-13
21-Nov-13
28-Nov-13
5-Dec-13
12-Dec-13
19-Dec-13
26-Dec-13
2-Jan-14
9-Jan-14
16-Jan-14
23-Jan-14
30-Jan-14
6-Feb-14
13-Feb-14
20-Feb-14
27-Feb-14
6-Mar-14
13-Mar-14
20-Mar-14
27-Mar-14
3-Apr-14
10-Apr-14
17-Apr-14
24-Apr-14
1-May-14
8-May-14
15-May-14
22-May-14
29-May-14
5-Jun-14
12-Jun-14
19-Jun-14
26-Jun-14
3-Jul-14
10-Jul-14
17-Jul-14
24-Jul-14
31-Jul-14
7-Aug-14
14-Aug-14
21-Aug-14
28-Aug-14
#NA = Not available.

1/ Date on which the settlement prices are observed.
4.38
4.42
4.40
4.36
4.30
4.35
4.29
4.33
4.38
4.38
4.35
4.33
4.34
4.28
4.37
4.37
4.39
4.49
4.48
4.55
4.51
4.67
4.65
4.63
4.68
4.69
4.70
4.68
4.70
4.69
4.71
4.63
4.61
4.59
4.56
4.55
4.56
4.55
4.51
4.49
4.48
4.45
4.45
4.46
4.47
4.47
4.46
4.80
4.80
4.80
4.80
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.60
4.60
4.60
4.60
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.65
4.55
4.55
4.55
4.55
4.45
4.45
4.45
4.45
4.45
4.45
4.45
4.45
11-Oct-13
8-Nov-13
10-Dec-13
10-Jan-14
10-Feb-14
10-Mar-14
9-Apr-14
9-May-14
11-Jun-14
11-Jul-14
12-Aug-14
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00 End of Data
Change forecast
On this worksheet, users can change a marketing year forecast by using their own futures prices, monthly basis values,
and/or monthly marketing weights.
How to change the most recent forecast for marketing year 2014/15 (table 1)
How to change the forecast for marketing year 2013/14 (table 2)
How to change the most recent forecast for marketing year 2014/15 (table 1)
Step # 1 enters the most recent Thursday's settlement price from each trading contract into table 1, column B. These
prices provide a futures price for each month as found in column C.
Different futures prices may be entered into column B by the user.
Step # 2 calculates a monthly price forecast found in column E by adding a moving 5-year average basis found in column
D to the monthly futures price found in column C. Column F reflects, when available, actual monthly farm prices received
by U.S. producers.
Different basis values may be entered into column D by the user.
Step # 3 inserts an actual monthly price received by farmers into column F, if available. Initially, this is a mid-month price
but a month later becomes the full month price received.
Step # 4 computes each months price weight, as found in column I, and is a product of columns G and H. Column G
reflects a composite forecast derived from farm prices received or futures prices. Column H reflects each months 5-yearmoving-average monthly marketing weight.
Different marketing weights may be inserted into column H by the user.
Step # 6 calculates the price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate.
Date of Futures Forecast:
9-Oct-14
Table 1. Futures model forecast of U.S. corn producers' season-average price received and PLC payment rate, marketing year 2014/15
Step # 1
(Col. A)
Marketing
year month
1/
(Col. B)
Step # 2
(Col. C)
(Col. D)
Current futures
Futures price based
price by trading on nearby contract 3/
contract 2/
Step # 3
(Col. F)
(Col. E)
Basis (5-year U.S.

average)
Step # 4
(Col. H)
(Col. G)
Monthly farm Actual monthly

Composite monthly
price forecast
farm price, if forecast actual/futures
available 4/
-------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel---------------------------------------------------------------------September
3.45
-0.26
3.19
October
3.45
-0.46
November
3.45
-0.38
3.38
(Col. I)
Monthly marketing
weights (5-year U.S.
average)
Percent
Monthly price
weight
Dollars per bushel
3.38
7.5
0.252
2.98
2.98
13.0
0.387
3.06
3.06
11.4
0.350
December
3.45
3.58
-0.39
3.19
3.19
9.0
0.286
January
3.58
-0.38
3.20
3.20
14.1
0.451
February
3.58
-0.32
3.26
3.26
7.4
0.242
3.67
-0.39
3.28
3.28
8.2
0.270
3.67
-0.23
3.44
3.44
6.1
0.210
3.74
-0.10
3.64
3.64
5.2
0.191
3.74
-0.03
3.71
3.71
5.9
0.219
3.82
0.14
3.95
3.95
6.4
0.253
3.82
0.06
3.88
3.88
5.8
0.223
Sum of weights =
100.0
March
3.58
April
3.67
May
June
3.74
July
August
September
3.82
Forecast of season-average price received:

3.33
Forecast of price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate:

Step # 6
0.37
= Reference Price ($/bu.) minus the Larger of (Marketing year national farm price ($/bu.) or National marketing assistance loan rate ($/bu.))
3.70
3.33
1.95

How to change the forecast for marketing year 2013/14 (table 2)

These forecasts are relevant from May 2013 through August 2014. However, the ability to change these forecasts remains in
the spreadsheet until May 2015, the beginning of the next forecast period. Thereafter, marketing year 2013/14 forecasts are
archived in the historical forecasts section (see index page).
Different futures prices many be entered into column B by the user.
by U.S. producers.
Different basis values may be entered into column D by the user.

Different marketing weights may be entered into column H by the user.
Step # 6 calculates the counter-cyclical payment rate (target price less the effective price).

28-Aug-14
Table 2. Futures model forecast of U.S. corn producers' season-average price received and CCP rate, marketing year 2013/14
Step # 1
(Col. A)
Marketing
year month
1/
(Col. B)
Step # 2
(Col. C)
(Col. D)
Current futures
Futures price based
contract 2/
Step # 3
(Col. F)
(Col. E)
Basis (5-year U.S.

average)
Step # 4
(Col. H)
(Col. G)

Composite monthly
price forecast
available 4/
-------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel---------------------------------------------------------------------September
-0.51
October
-0.46
November
-0.31
December
-0.33
January
-0.32
February
-0.25
March
-0.31
April
-0.17
May
-0.12
June
-0.06
July
3.62
0.15
3.76
August
3.62
0.07
3.69
September
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
4.71
4.71
4.49
3.80
3.62
(Col. I)
Monthly marketing
average)
Percent
Monthly price
weight
Dollars per bushel
5.40
7.3
0.396
4.61
12.5
0.578
4.35
11.3
0.493
4.41
9.0
0.397
4.42
13.8
0.610
4.35
6.8
0.298
4.51
8.3
0.376
4.71
6.0
0.282
4.71
6.1
0.287
4.49
6.2
0.280
3.80
6.6
0.251
3.69
5.9
0.217
Sum of weights =
100.0

4.46
Step # 6
CCP rate ($/bu.)
0.00
4.74
Direct payment rate

0.28
2.63
+
the larger of
4.74

or

4.46
National average]
loan rate
1.95

2/ Contract months include December, March, May, July, and September. Futures price quotation from the CME Group/Chicago Board of Trade settlement prices.
Definitions
This worksheet defines key terms associated with the futures forecast model.
Basis
Counter-cyclical payment rate
Counter-cyclical payment trigger price
Futures price
Marketing weights
Marketing year
Price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate
Reference price
Season-average price received
Basis. The basis computed for this analysis is the monthly U.S. average price received by producers (as published
by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service; see the Data and Source section of the Documentation
worksheet for more information) less a monthly average of the nearby futures settlement price observed for a given
month. For months when the contract expires, the next nearby contract is used instead of the current nearby
contract. For example, the September corn basis is the difference between the September farm price received by
U.S. corn producers and Septembers average settlement price of the nearby December futures corn contract. In
December, the basis is the difference between the December farm price received by U.S. corn producers and
December's average settlement price of the March futures contract, which is the next nearby contract for corn. In
this model, a 5-year moving average of the basis is used to compute the forecast. The 5-year average is updated
annually.
Counter-cyclical payment rate. The counter-cyclical payment (CCP) rate is equal to the target price less the
effective price. The effective price is equal to the direct payment rate plus the higher of the season-average price
received or the national average loan rate. For more information on counter-cyclical payments, see:
http://webarchives.cdlib.org/sw1tx36512/http://ers.usda.gov/FarmBill/2008/Titles/TitleIcommodities.htm
The effective price, season-average price, and counter-cyclical payment rate are initially unknown, but the values
for the target price, national average loan rate, and direct payment are predetermined. Once the season-average
price received is derived, the effective price can be determined, as can the counter-cyclical payment rate. For
definitions of these terms, see:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-commodity-policy/glossary.aspx
For more information on U.S. farm policy, see the ERS Farm and Commodity Policy briefing room:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-commodity-policy.aspx
For more information on the 2008 Farm Act, see:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/356893/getdoc.pdf
Counter-cyclical payment trigger price. The counter-cyclical payment trigger price equals the target price
minus the direct payment rate for that commodity. Counter-cyclical payments are made when the season-average
price received by producers is below the trigger price.
Futures price. The settlement futures prices from the CME Group's contract for No. 2 yellow corn are used for
this analysis. The price for the nearby contract is used except when the marketing year month coincides with the
month in which the contract expires. For example, the December contract prices are used for the months of
September, October, and November, while the March contract prices are used for the months of December, January,
and February, etc. See Table 3 on the Data worksheet for information on which futures contracts cover which
months. For current corn futures data from the CME Group, see:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/commodities/grain-and-oilseed/corn.html
For information on how to purchase historical corn futures data from the CME Group, see:
http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/datamine-historical-data/datamine.html
Marketing weights. A marketing weight represents the proportion of the marketing years crop that is marketed
in a given month. For example, in a given marketing year, 25 percent of the crop may be sold in October. The
marketing weight for that month for that marketing year would be 0.25. Marketing weights are used to construct a
weighted season-average price. In this model, a 5-year moving average of these weights is used to compute the
forecast. The 5-year average is updated annually.
Marketing year. For field crops, the 12-month period starting with the month when the harvest of a specific
crop typically begins. For corn, the marketing year runs from September to August.
Price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate. The difference between the reference price and the higher of the
annual national-average farm price or national marketing assistance loan rate. For background information see:
Reference price. A statutorily-fixed "reference price" established by the Agricultural Act of 2014 (The 2014
Farm Act). See Title I page 12 for more information:
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-113hr2642enr/pdf/BILLS-113hr2642enr.pdf
Season-average price received. The monthly or season farm price received is determined by USDA's National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Through sampling, NASS collects data on sales from producers to first
buyers. The price is determined by dividing sales by quantity sold. This price represents all grades and qualities.
These prices are reported both monthly and annually.
Documentation
Brief description of the futures forecast model
Data and sources
Forecast procedures
The futures price is used as a predictor of the season-average U.S. farm price. Futures prices reflect both expected supply
and use and, thus, can be used to forecast short-run farm prices.
Brief description of the futures forecast model
The futures forecast model consists of several components: futures prices, farm prices received, basis values (farm price
received less the futures price), and marketing weights. For more information on basis, futures prices, and marketing
weights, see the Definitions worksheet.
A season-average price forecast is derived from a summation of weighted monthly farm price forecasts for the marketing
year. For more information on season-average price, see the Definitions worksheet.
The monthly forecasts are derived from the nearby futures contract traded throughout the marketing year. For more
information on futures prices, see the Definitions worksheet.
The monthly futures price is adjusted by a basis to compute the monthly farm price forecast, which is replaced with the
actual monthly price received by farmers as it becomes available from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. For
more information on basis, see the Definitions worksheet.
Monthly marketing weights are used to weight each month's price. For more information on marketing weights, see the
Definitions worksheet.
Data and sources
The futures forecast model requires the following data:
Weekly and monthly futures prices of the nearby contract by marketing year. Daily settlement prices by contract for corn
are obtained from the CME Group for marketing years 1975 to the present. For current corn futures data from the CME
Group, see:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/commodities/grain-and-oilseed/corn.html
For information on how to purchase historical data for corn from the CME Group, see:
http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/datamine-historical-data/datamine.html
Monthly and annual farm prices received by marketing year. Monthly farm prices received for corn are obtained from
Agricultural Prices, published by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. For the publication, see:
Monthly basis values by marketing year. Monthly farm prices received less monthly average futures settlement prices
from the nearby futures contract.
Monthly marketing weights by marketing year. Marketing weights by month are derived from data published in USDA's
December Crop Production for marketing years 1975-77 and the annual issue of Agricultural Prices thereafter. For the most
recent year's monthly marketing weights see Agricultural Prices:
Monthly season-average price received projections from WASDE. Price projections from USDA are from World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), published by USDAs World Agricultural Outlook Board. For the
publication, see:
Policy parameters (target prices, national average loan rates, direct payment rates, counter-cyclical payment trigger prices,
and reference prices). Reference prices are taken from the 2014 Farm Act. Other policy parameters from the 2008 Farm
Act. For more information see below:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/356893/getdoc.pdf
Forecast procedures
The forecast period for each marketing year covers 16 months, beginning in May, four months before the start of the year,
and concludes with August, the last month of the marketing year. The forecast period is similar for both the futures model
forecast and USDAs WASDE projections. Model forecasts are made weekly, relying on Thursday's settlement futures price,
but are reported once a month.
The following steps are used to compute the model forecast: (Refer to example tables 1 and 2 below to follow each step.)
by U.S. producers.
Step # 6 calculates the price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate for 2014-15. See table 1 below. For 2013-14, step # 6
calculates the counter-cyclical payment (CCP) rate (target price less the effective price). See table 2 below.
Date of Futures Forecast:

9-Oct-14
Table 1. Futures model forecast of U.S. corn producers' season-average price received and PLC payment rate, marketing year 2014/15
Step # 1
(Col. A)
Marketing
year month
1/
(Col. B)
Step # 2
(Col. C)
(Col. D)
Current futures
Futures price based
contract 2/
Step # 3
(Col. F)
(Col. E)
Basis (5-year U.S.

average)
Step # 4
(Col. H)
(Col. G)

Composite monthly
price forecast
available 4/
-------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel-----------------------------------------------------------------------September
3.45
-0.51
2.94
October
3.45
-0.46
3.45
3.58
January
February
November
December
March
3.45
3.58
April
3.67
May
June
3.74
July
August
September
3.38
(Col. I)
Monthly marketing
average)
Percent
Monthly price
weight
Dollars per bushel
3.38
7.3
0.248
2.98
2.98
12.5
0.374
-0.31
3.14
3.14
11.3
0.356
-0.33
3.25
3.25
9.0
0.292
3.58
-0.32
3.26
3.26
13.8
0.450
3.58
-0.25
3.33
3.33
6.8
0.228
3.67
-0.31
3.35
3.35
8.3
0.280
3.67
-0.17
3.50
3.50
6.0
0.209
3.74
-0.12
3.62
3.62
6.1
0.221
3.74
-0.06
3.68
3.68
6.2
0.230
3.82
0.15
3.96
3.96
6.6
0.262
3.82
0.07
3.88
3.88
5.9
0.228
Sum of weights =
100.0
3.82

3.38
Forecast of price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate:

Step # 6
0.32
= Reference Price ($/bu.) minus the Larger of (Marketing year national farm price ($/bu.) or National marketing assistance loan rate ($/bu.))
3.70
3.38
1.95


28-Aug-14
Table 2. Futures model forecast of U.S. corn producers' season-average price received and CCP rate, marketing year 2013/14
Step # 1
(Col. A)
(Col. B)
Marketing
year month
1/
Step # 2
(Col. C)
(Col. D)
Current futures
Futures price based
contract 2/
Step # 3
(Col. F)
(Col. E)
Basis (5-year U.S.

average)
Step # 4
(Col. H)
(Col. G)

Composite monthly
price forecast
available 4/
-------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel-----------------------------------------------------------------------September
-0.51
October
-0.46
November
-0.31
December
-0.33
January
-0.32
February
-0.25
March
-0.31
April
-0.17
May
-0.12
June
-0.06
July
August
September
3.62
0.15
3.76
3.62
0.07
3.69
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
4.71
4.71
4.49
3.80
3.62
(Col. I)
Monthly marketing
average)
Percent
Monthly price
weight
Dollars per bushel
5.40
7.3
0.396
4.61
12.5
0.578
4.35
11.3
0.493
4.41
9.0
0.397
4.42
13.8
0.610
4.35
6.8
0.298
4.51
8.3
0.376
4.71
6.0
0.282
4.71
6.1
0.287
4.49
6.2
0.280
3.80
6.6
0.251
3.69
5.9
0.217
Sum of weights =
100.0

4.46

Step # 6
CCP rate ($/bu.)
0.00
4.74
Direct payment rate

0.28
2.63
+
the larger of
4.74

or

4.46
National average]
loan rate
1.95

2/ Contract months include December, March, May, July, and September. Futures price quotation from the CME Group/Chicago Board of Trade settlement prices.
Data
This worksheet provides current and historical data needed to produce the marketing year forecasts:
Weekly and monthly futures pr ices of the nearby c ontrac t by marketing year
Table 1. Weekly (Thursday) settlement price of the nearby corn futures contract, marketing year 2014/15
Table 3. Average monthly settlement price for the nearby corn futures contract by marketing year month, marketing years 1975-2014
Mon thly and annual farm price s rec eive d by marketing ye ar
Table 4. Observed monthly farm price received by week for U.S. corn producers, marketing year 2014/15 (from monthly Agricultural Prices report)
Table 6. Monthly and annual price received by U.S. corn producers, marketing years 1975-2014
Monthly basis values by marketing year
Table 7. Average monthly basis (farm price received less futures) for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2014
Table 8. 5-year average monthly basis (farm price received less futures), for U.S. corn, marketing years 1980-2015
M onthly marketing we ights by mar keting year
Table 9. Monthly marketing weights for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2013
Table10. 5-year average monthly marketing weights for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2014
Mon thly season-average price rece ived projec tion from World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASD E)
Table 11. WASDE monthly projection of the U.S. farm price received for corn by forecast period, marketing year 2014/15
Table 12. WASDE monthly projection of the U.S. farm price received for corn by forecast period, marketing year 2013/14
Policy parameters--target price, national average loan rate, counter-cyclical payment trigger price, and direct payment rate by marketing year
Table 13. Policy parameters--target price, national average loan rate, direct payment rate, counter-cyclical payment trigger price, and reference price, marketing years 2002-18
Calendar
Forecast period 1/
December
March
May
July
September
year
Dollars per bushel
2014
1-May-14
5.00
5.08
5.14
5.19
4.98
8-May-14
5.12
5.19
5.25
5.30
5.08
15-May-14
4.81
4.89
4.94
5.00
4.90
22-May-14
4.74
4.83
4.89
4.95
4.84
29-May-14
4.63
4.73
4.79
4.85
4.75
5-Jun-14
4.47
4.57
4.64
4.70
4.64
12-Jun-14
4.44
5.55
4.62
4.68
4.63
19-Jun-14
4.48
4.58
4.65
4.71
4.67
26-Jun-14
4.43
4.54
4.61
4.68
4.63
3-Jul-14
4.15
4.27
4.34
4.41
4.42
10-Jul-14
3.93
4.04
4.12
4.19
4.22
17-Jul-14
3.87
3.99
4.08
4.15
4.21
24-Jul-14
3.70
3.81
3.90
3.97
4.04
31-Jul-14
3.67
3.80
3.88
3.95
4.03
7-Aug-14
3.71
3.84
3.93
3.99
4.05
14-Aug-14
3.74
3.87
3.95
4.02
4.08
21-Aug-14
3.69
3.82
3.90
3.97
4.03
28-Aug-14
3.69
3.82
3.91
3.97
4.03
4-Sep-14
3.47
3.60
3.68
3.76
3.83
11-Sep-14
3.41
3.54
3.62
3.69
3.77
18-Sep-14
3.38
3.51
3.59
3.66
3.74
25-Sep-14
3.26
3.39
3.48
3.55
3.62
2-Oct-14
3.23
3.36
3.44
3.52
3.60
9-Oct-14
3.45
3.58
3.67
3.74
3.82 End of Data
16-Oct-14
23-Oct-14
30-Oct-14
6-Nov-14
13-Nov-14
20-Nov-14
27-Nov-14
4-Dec-14
11-Dec-14
18-Dec-14
25-Dec-14
2015
1-Jan-15
8-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
29-Jan-15
5-Feb-15
12-Feb-15
19-Feb-15
26-Feb-15
5-Mar-15
12-Mar-15
19-Mar-15
26-Mar-15
2-Apr-15
9-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
23-Apr-15
30-Apr-15
7-May-15
14-May-15
21-May-15
28-May-15
4-Jun-15
11-Jun-15
18-Jun-15
25-Jun-15
2-Jul-15
9-Jul-15
16-Jul-15
23-Jul-15
30-Jul-15
6-Aug-15
13-Aug-15
20-Aug-15
27-Aug-15
Calendar
Forecast period 1/
December
March
May
July
September
year
Dollars per bushel
2013
2-May-13
5.59
5.69
5.77
5.84
5.66
9-May-13
5.42
5.52
5.59
5.66
5.50
16-May-13
5.24
5.34
5.42
5.49
5.41
23-May-13
5.35
5.46
5.53
5.61
5.52
30-May-13
5.63
5.73
5.80
5.86
5.70
6-Jun-13
5.48
5.59
5.66
5.73
5.64
13-Jun-13
5.35
5.47
5.54
5.61
5.53
20-Jun-13
5.61
5.71
5.78
5.85
5.74
27-Jun-13
5.39
5.49
5.56
5.63
5.54
4-Jul-13
5.03
5.15
5.23
5.30
5.30
11-Jul-13
5.27
5.39
5.47
5.53
5.50
18-Jul-13
5.01
5.13
5.21
5.27
5.26
25-Jul-13
4.79
4.91
4.99
5.06
5.08
1-Aug-13
4.67
4.80
4.88
4.93
4.95
8-Aug-13
4.60
4.73
4.82
4.87
4.91
15-Aug-13
4.72
4.85
4.93
4.99
5.03
22-Aug-13
4.65
4.77
4.85
4.91
4.94
29-Aug-13
4.82
4.94
5.02
5.08
5.10
5-Sep-13
4.61
4.74
4.83
4.89
4.92
12-Sep-13
4.66
4.79
4.87
4.94
4.98
19-Sep-13
4.60
4.72
4.80
4.87
4.91
26-Sep-13
4.57
4.70
4.78
4.84
4.87
3-Oct-13
4.40
4.52
4.60
4.68
4.73
10-Oct-13
4.38
4.51
4.60
4.67
4.73
17-Oct-13
4.43
4.56
4.64
4.71
4.76
24-Oct-13
4.40
4.53
4.61
4.69
4.75
31-Oct-13
4.28
4.39
4.48
4.54
4.61
7-Nov-13
4.21
4.32
4.40
4.47
4.53
14-Nov-13
4.27
4.37
4.45
4.52
4.59
21-Nov-13
4.23
4.30
4.38
4.45
4.50
28-Nov-13
4.17
4.27
4.35
4.42
4.48
5-Dec-13
4.34
4.42
4.49
4.55
12-Dec-13
4.34
4.43
4.49
4.55
19-Dec-13
4.31
4.39
4.46
4.52
26-Dec-13
4.26
4.35
4.42
4.48
2014
2-Jan-14
4.21
4.29
4.36
4.45
9-Jan-14
4.12
4.20
4.28
4.34
16-Jan-14
4.28
4.36
4.42
4.47
23-Jan-14
4.29
4.35
4.41
4.45
30-Jan-14
4.34
4.40
4.44
4.46
6-Feb-14
4.43
4.49
4.54
4.55
13-Feb-14
4.41
4.47
4.51
4.52
20-Feb-14
4.56
4.62
4.67
4.67
27-Feb-14
4.48
4.55
4.59
4.59
6-Mar-14
4.91
4.95
4.91
13-Mar-14
4.85
4.89
4.86
20-Mar-14
4.79
4.84
4.82
27-Mar-14
4.92
4.96
4.92
3-Apr-14
5.00
5.05
5.03
10-Apr-14
5.01
5.07
5.07
17-Apr-14
4.95
5.01
4.98
24-Apr-14
5.01
5.07
5.05
1-May-14
5.07
5.03
8-May-14
5.17
5.13
15-May-14
4.84
4.81
22-May-14
4.77
4.74
29-May-14
4.70
4.63
5-Jun-14
4.49
4.44
12-Jun-14
4.44
4.40
19-Jun-14
4.51
4.44
26-Jun-14
4.43
4.39
3-Jul-14
4.10
10-Jul-14
3.86
17-Jul-14
3.80
24-Jul-14
3.62
31-Jul-14
3.57
7-Aug-14
3.60
14-Aug-14
3.62
21-Aug-14
3.62
28-Aug-14
3.62 End of Data
Table 3. Average monthly settlement price for the nearby corn futures contract by marketing year month, marketing years 1975-2014
Nearby futures contracts
December
March
May
July
Marketing
year
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
Dollars per bushel
1975-76
3.02
2.91
2.69
2.68
2.68
2.69
2.72
2.67
2.84
2.98
1976-77
2.83
2.66
2.43
2.52
2.59
2.56
2.59
2.53
2.44
2.35
1977-78
2.01
2.09
2.22
2.25
2.24
2.26
2.44
2.57
2.56
2.57
1978-79
2.22
2.31
2.29
2.33
2.32
2.37
2.47
2.54
2.67
2.87
1979-80
2.78
2.78
2.68
2.87
2.74
2.72
2.70
2.68
2.80
2.79
1980-81
3.54
3.61
3.81
3.80
3.72
3.61
3.60
3.65
3.55
3.41
1981-82
2.95
2.91
2.77
2.72
2.73
2.68
2.70
2.78
2.79
2.73
1982-83
2.24
2.20
2.33
2.42
2.55
2.73
2.96
3.13
3.10
3.11
1983-84
3.58
3.48
3.49
3.36
3.30
3.25
3.47
3.54
3.49
3.49
1984-85
2.86
2.78
2.73
2.79
2.71
2.68
2.75
2.83
2.76
2.75
1985-86
2.20
2.23
2.38
2.47
2.47
2.39
2.31
2.30
2.35
2.32
1986-87
1.67
1.69
1.70
1.67
1.58
1.50
1.60
1.69
1.90
1.89
1987-88
1.75
1.83
1.83
1.90
1.96
2.00
2.07
2.04
2.14
2.90
1988-89
2.93
2.89
2.69
2.77
2.78
2.70
2.79
2.68
2.71
2.61
1989-90
2.32
2.39
2.38
2.40
2.44
2.43
2.53
2.72
2.85
2.83
1990-91
2.30
2.30
2.26
2.36
2.37
2.40
2.54
2.56
2.49
2.40
1991-92
2.52
2.51
2.43
2.51
2.58
2.65
2.72
2.53
2.58
2.56
1992-93
2.18
2.09
2.12
2.20
2.18
2.12
2.24
2.29
2.29
2.18
1993-94
2.40
2.49
2.74
2.70
3.02
2.91
2.85
2.67
2.66
2.68
1994-95
2.20
2.16
2.09
2.29
2.32
2.33
2.46
2.49
2.61
2.73
1995-96
3.03
3.23
3.28
3.50
3.62
3.74
3.90
4.54
4.81
4.66
1996-97
3.20
2.84
2.68
2.64
2.68
2.81
3.03
2.99
2.81
2.66
1997-98
2.64
2.81
2.76
2.73
2.71
2.69
2.71
2.49
2.48
2.42
1998-99
2.08
2.19
2.19
2.21
2.17
2.15
2.24
2.18
2.20
2.17
1999-00
2.15
2.01
1.96
2.02
2.16
2.20
2.31
2.27
2.40
2.08
2000-01
1.93
2.04
2.11
2.22
2.19
2.11
2.14
2.06
1.99
1.93
2001-02
2.22
2.08
2.05
2.15
2.10
2.05
2.07
1.99
2.08
2.12
2002-03
2.72
2.52
2.43
2.36
2.36
2.39
2.33
2.39
2.45
2.39
2003-04
2.31
2.26
2.37
2.48
2.67
2.83
3.05
3.16
3.02
2.86
2004-05
2.18
2.05
1.99
2.05
2.00
2.00
2.17
2.08
2.12
2.22
2005-06
2.10
2.02
1.93
2.08
2.13
2.23
2.28
2.37
2.50
2.38
2006-07
2.49
3.03
3.56
3.76
3.91
4.11
4.07
3.62
3.74
3.81
2007-08
3.59
3.58
3.82
4.32
4.89
5.16
5.53
5.93
6.03
6.99
2008-09
5.46
4.13
3.74
3.69
3.91
3.62
3.80
3.87
4.22
4.12
2009-10
3.25
3.72
3.90
4.02
3.86
3.63
3.68
3.54
3.68
3.47
2010-11
4.89
5.46
5.52
5.92
6.35
6.90
6.86
7.53
7.24
7.21
2011-12
6.94
6.32
6.27
6.06
6.31
6.40
6.48
6.34
6.01
6.03
2012-13
7.63
7.50
7.40
7.21
7.15
7.07
7.15
6.49
6.51
6.62
2013-14
4.60
4.39
4.23
4.30
4.27
4.47
4.85
5.02
4.90
4.47
2014-15
3.39
Calendar
Forecast
Release date of
year
period 1/
Agricu ltural Pri ces 2/
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
Dollars per bushel
2014
1-May-14
8-May-14
15-May-14
22-May-14
29-May-14
5-Jun-14
12-Jun-14
19-Jun-14
26-Jun-14
3-Jul-14
10-Jul-14
17-Jul-14
24-Jul-14
31-Jul-14
7-Aug-14
14-Aug-14
21-Aug-14
28-Aug-14
4-Sep-14
11-Sep-14
18-Sep-14
25-Sep-14
2-Oct-14
29-Sep-14
3.38
9-Oct-14
3.38
16-Oct-14
23-Oct-14
30-Oct-14
6-Nov-14
13-Nov-14
20-Nov-14
27-Nov-14
4-Dec-14
11-Dec-14
18-Dec-14
25-Dec-14
2015
1-Jan-15
8-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
29-Jan-15
5-Feb-15
12-Feb-15
19-Feb-15
26-Feb-15
5-Mar-15
12-Mar-15
19-Mar-15
26-Mar-15
2-Apr-15
9-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
23-Apr-15
30-Apr-15
7-May-15
14-May-15
21-May-15
28-May-15
4-Jun-15
11-Jun-15
18-Jun-15
25-Jun-15
2-Jul-15
9-Jul-15
16-Jul-15
September
July
August
2.92
2.14
2.37
3.06
3.17
3.47
2.59
3.12
3.08
2.47
1.74
1.71
3.16
2.45
2.66
2.33
2.33
2.41
2.24
2.88
3.86
2.45
2.33
1.97
1.85
2.16
2.35
2.12
2.37
2.40
2.49
3.30
6.46
3.28
3.78
6.68
7.59
5.28
3.79
2.79
1.89
2.19
2.82
3.43
3.11
2.33
3.53
2.97
2.30
1.61
1.57
2.89
2.30
2.48
2.49
2.19
2.37
2.19
2.83
3.64
2.63
2.06
2.14
1.78
2.17
2.59
2.20
2.25
2.15
2.30
3.31
5.49
3.27
4.09
7.13
8.04
4.83
3.59
April
May
June
July
August
End of Data
23-Jul-15
30-Jul-15
6-Aug-15
13-Aug-15
20-Aug-15
27-Aug-15
Calendar
Forecast
Release date of
year
period 1/
Agricu ltural Pri ces 2/
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
Dollars per bushel
2013
2-May-13
9-May-13
16-May-13
23-May-13
30-May-13
6-Jun-13
13-Jun-13
20-Jun-13
27-Jun-13
4-Jul-13
11-Jul-13
18-Jul-13
25-Jul-13
1-Aug-13
8-Aug-13
15-Aug-13
22-Aug-13
29-Aug-13
5-Sep-13
12-Sep-13
19-Sep-13
26-Sep-13
3-Oct-13
27-Sep-13
5.28
10-Oct-13
5.28
17-Oct-13
5.28
24-Oct-13
5.28
31-Oct-13
31-Oct-13
5.28
4.49
7-Nov-13
5.40
4.49
14-Nov-13
5.40
4.49
21-Nov-13
5.40
4.49
28-Nov-13
27-Nov-13
5.40
4.61
4.29
5-Dec-13
5.40
4.61
4.29
12-Dec-13
5.40
4.61
4.29
19-Dec-13
5.40
4.61
4.29
26-Dec-13
5.40
4.61
4.29
2014
2-Jan-14
30-Dec-13
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.31
9-Jan-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.31
16-Jan-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.31
23-Jan-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.31
30-Jan-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.31
6-Feb-14
31-Jan-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.37
13-Feb-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.37
20-Feb-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.37
27-Feb-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.37
6-Mar-14
28-Feb-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.47
13-Mar-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.47
20-Mar-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.47
27-Mar-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.47
3-Apr-14
28-Mar-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.54
10-Apr-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.54
17-Apr-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.54
24-Apr-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.54
1-May-14
30-Apr-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
8-May-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
15-May-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
22-May-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
29-May-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
5-Jun-14
30-May-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
12-Jun-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
19-Jun-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
26-Jun-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
3-Jul-14
27-Jun-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
10-Jul-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
17-Jul-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
24-Jul-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
31-Jul-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
7-Aug-14
31-Jul-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
14-Aug-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
21-Aug-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
28-Aug-14
5.40
4.61
4.35
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.51
April
May
4.73
4.73
4.73
4.73
4.73
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
4.71
June
July
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.49
4.49
4.49
4.49
3.80
3.80
3.80
3.80

Table 6. Monthly and annual price received by U.S. corn producers, marketing years 1975-2014
Marketing
year
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
Dollars per bushel
1975-76
2.76
2.62
2.33
2.37
2.44
2.48
2.50
1976-77
2.60
2.33
2.02
2.24
2.34
2.34
2.35
1977-78
1.60
1.67
1.88
1.97
2.00
2.03
2.15
1978-79
1.98
1.97
2.02
2.09
2.11
2.18
2.22
1979-80
2.51
2.41
2.27
2.38
2.45
2.39
2.40
1980-81
3.01
2.99
3.10
3.19
3.19
3.22
3.25
1981-82
2.55
2.45
2.34
2.39
2.54
2.44
2.46
1982-83
2.15
1.98
2.13
2.26
2.36
2.56
2.71
1983-84
3.32
3.15
3.17
3.15
3.15
3.11
3.21
1984-85
2.90
2.65
2.55
2.56
2.64
2.62
2.67
1985-86
2.29
2.11
2.21
2.29
2.33
2.32
2.29
1986-87
1.45
1.40
1.47
1.50
1.48
1.42
1.47
1987-88
1.49
1.55
1.61
1.72
1.77
1.83
1.86
1988-89
2.60
2.58
2.51
2.53
2.60
2.59
2.60
1989-90
2.29
2.22
2.24
2.27
2.31
2.32
2.37
1990-91
2.32
2.19
2.16
2.22
2.27
2.32
2.39
1991-92
2.33
2.31
2.29
2.33
2.40
2.46
2.49
1992-93
2.16
2.05
1.98
1.97
2.03
2.00
2.10
1993-94
2.21
2.28
2.45
2.67
2.70
2.79
2.74
1994-95
2.19
2.06
1.99
2.13
2.19
2.23
2.30
1995-96
2.69
2.79
2.87
3.07
3.09
3.37
3.51
1996-97
3.56
2.88
2.66
2.63
2.69
2.65
2.79
1997-98
2.52
2.54
2.51
2.52
2.56
2.55
2.55
1998-99
1.84
1.91
1.93
2.00
2.06
2.05
2.06
1999-00
1.75
1.69
1.70
1.82
1.91
1.98
2.03
2000-01
1.61
1.74
1.86
1.97
1.98
1.96
1.96
2001-02
1.91
1.84
1.85
1.98
1.97
1.93
1.94
2002-03
2.47
2.34
2.28
2.32
2.33
2.34
2.33
2003-04
2.20
2.12
2.20
2.31
2.39
2.61
2.75
2004-05
2.20
2.15
2.05
2.04
2.12
1.95
2.02
2005-06
1.90
1.82
1.77
1.92
2.00
2.02
2.06
2006-07
2.20
2.54
2.87
3.01
3.05
3.44
3.43
2007-08
3.29
3.29
3.43
3.76
3.97
4.53
4.70
2008-09
5.02
4.37
4.26
4.10
4.36
3.87
3.86
2009-10
3.25
3.61
3.65
3.60
3.66
3.55
3.55
2010-11
4.08
4.32
4.55
4.82
4.94
5.65
5.53
2011-12
6.38
5.73
5.83
5.86
6.07
6.28
6.35
2012-13
6.89
6.78
7.01
6.87
6.96
7.04
7.13
2013-14
5.40
4.63
4.37
4.41
4.42
4.35
4.52
2014-15
3.38
Table 7. Average monthly basis (farm price received less futures) for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2014
Marketing
year
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
Dollars per bushel
1975-76
-0.26
-0.29
-0.36
-0.31
-0.24
-0.21
-0.22
1976-77
-0.23
-0.33
-0.41
-0.28
-0.25
-0.22
-0.24
1977-78
-0.41
-0.42
-0.34
-0.28
-0.24
-0.23
-0.29
1978-79
-0.24
-0.34
-0.27
-0.24
-0.21
-0.19
-0.25
1979-80
-0.24
-0.37
-0.41
-0.49
-0.29
-0.33
-0.30
1980-81
-0.53
-0.62
-0.71
-0.61
-0.53
-0.39
-0.35
1981-82
-0.40
-0.46
-0.43
-0.33
-0.19
-0.24
-0.24
1982-83
-0.09
-0.22
-0.20
-0.16
-0.19
-0.17
-0.25
1983-84
-0.26
-0.33
-0.32
-0.21
-0.15
-0.14
-0.26
1984-85
0.04
-0.13
-0.18
-0.23
-0.07
-0.06
-0.08
1985-86
0.09
-0.12
-0.17
-0.18
-0.14
-0.07
-0.02
1986-87
-0.22
-0.29
-0.23
-0.17
-0.10
-0.08
-0.13
1987-88
-0.26
-0.28
-0.22
-0.18
-0.19
-0.17
-0.21
1988-89
-0.33
-0.31
-0.18
-0.24
-0.18
-0.11
-0.19
1989-90
-0.03
-0.17
-0.14
-0.13
-0.13
-0.11
-0.16
1990-91
0.02
-0.11
-0.10
-0.14
-0.10
-0.08
-0.15
1991-92
-0.19
-0.20
-0.14
-0.18
-0.18
-0.19
-0.23
1992-93
-0.02
-0.04
-0.14
-0.23
-0.15
-0.12
-0.14
1993-94
-0.19
-0.21
-0.29
-0.03
-0.32
-0.12
-0.11
1994-95
-0.01
-0.10
-0.10
-0.16
-0.13
-0.10
-0.16
1995-96
-0.34
-0.44
-0.41
-0.43
-0.53
-0.37
-0.39
1996-97
0.36
0.04
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
-0.16
-0.24
1997-98
-0.12
-0.27
-0.25
-0.21
-0.15
-0.14
-0.16
1998-99
-0.24
-0.28
-0.26
-0.21
-0.11
-0.10
-0.18
1999-00
-0.40
-0.32
-0.26
-0.20
-0.25
-0.22
-0.28
2000-01
-0.32
-0.30
-0.25
-0.25
-0.21
-0.15
-0.18
2001-02
-0.31
-0.24
-0.20
-0.17
-0.13
-0.12
-0.13
2002-03
-0.25
-0.18
-0.15
-0.04
-0.03
-0.05
0.00
2003-04
-0.11
-0.14
-0.17
-0.17
-0.28
-0.22
-0.30
2004-05
0.02
0.10
0.06
-0.01
0.12
-0.05
-0.15
2005-06
-0.20
-0.20
-0.16
-0.16
-0.13
-0.21
-0.22
2006-07
-0.29
-0.49
-0.69
-0.75
-0.86
-0.67
-0.64
2007-08
-0.30
-0.29
-0.39
-0.56
-0.92
-0.63
-0.83
2008-09
-0.44
0.24
0.52
0.41
0.45
0.25
0.06
2009-10
0.00
-0.11
-0.25
-0.42
-0.20
-0.08
-0.13
2010-11
-0.81
-1.14
-0.97
-1.10
-1.41
-1.25
-1.33
2011-12
-0.56
-0.59
-0.44
-0.20
-0.24
-0.12
-0.13
2012-13
-0.74
-0.72
-0.39
-0.34
-0.19
-0.03
-0.02
2013-14
0.80
0.24
0.14
0.11
0.15
-0.12
-0.33
2014-15
-0.01
Table 8. 5-year average monthly basis (farm price received less futures), for U.S. corn, marketing years 1980-2015
Marketing
year
5-year average
September
October
November
December
January
February
Dollars per bushel
1980-81
1975-79
-0.28
-0.35
-0.36
-0.32
-0.25
-0.23
1981-82
1976-80
-0.33
-0.41
-0.43
-0.38
-0.30
-0.27
1982-83
1977-81
-0.36
-0.44
-0.43
-0.39
-0.29
-0.28
1983-84
1978-82
-0.30
-0.40
-0.41
-0.37
-0.28
-0.26
1984-85
1979-83
-0.30
-0.40
-0.42
-0.36
-0.27
-0.25
1985-86
1980-84
-0.25
-0.35
-0.37
-0.31
-0.22
-0.20
1986-87
1981-85
-0.12
-0.25
-0.26
-0.22
-0.15
-0.14
1987-88
1982-86
-0.09
-0.22
-0.22
-0.19
-0.13
-0.11
1988-89
1983-87
-0.12
-0.23
-0.23
-0.19
-0.13
-0.11
1989-90
1984-88
-0.14
-0.23
-0.20
-0.20
-0.13
-0.10
1990-91
1985-89
-0.15
-0.23
-0.19
-0.18
-0.15
-0.11
1991-92
1986-90
-0.16
-0.23
-0.18
-0.17
-0.14
-0.11
1992-93
1987-91
-0.16
-0.21
-0.16
-0.17
-0.16
-0.13
1993-94
1988-92
-0.11
-0.16
-0.14
-0.18
-0.15
-0.12
1994-95
1989-93
-0.08
-0.14
-0.16
-0.14
-0.18
-0.12
1995-96
1990-94
-0.08
-0.13
-0.15
-0.15
-0.18
-0.12
1996-97
1991-95
-0.15
-0.20
-0.22
-0.21
-0.26
-0.18
1997-98
1992-96
-0.04
-0.15
-0.19
-0.17
-0.23
-0.18
1998-99
1993-97
-0.06
-0.20
-0.21
-0.17
-0.23
-0.18
1999-00
1994-98
-0.07
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
-0.18
-0.17
2000-01
1995-99
-0.15
-0.25
-0.24
-0.21
-0.21
-0.20
2001-02
1996-00
-0.14
-0.23
-0.21
-0.18
-0.14
-0.15
2002-03
1997-01
-0.28
-0.28
-0.24
-0.21
-0.17
-0.14
2003-04
1998-02
-0.30
-0.27
-0.22
-0.18
-0.15
-0.13
2004-05
1999-03
-0.24
-0.22
-0.20
-0.19
-0.18
-0.15
2005-06
2000-04
-0.19
-0.15
-0.14
-0.13
-0.11
-0.12
2006-07
2001-05
-0.17
-0.13
-0.12
-0.11
-0.09
-0.13
2007-08
2002-06
-0.17
-0.18
-0.22
-0.23
-0.24
-0.24
2008-09
2003-07
-0.17
-0.20
-0.27
-0.33
-0.41
-0.36
2009-10
2004-08
-0.24
-0.13
-0.13
-0.22
-0.27
-0.26
2010-11
2005-09
-0.24
-0.17
-0.19
-0.30
-0.33
-0.27
2011-12
2006-10
-0.37
-0.36
-0.35
-0.49
-0.59
-0.48
2012-13
2007-11
-0.42
-0.38
-0.31
-0.38
-0.46
-0.37
2013-14
2008-12
-0.51
-0.46
-0.31
-0.33
-0.32
-0.25
2014-15
2009-13
-0.26
-0.46
-0.38
-0.39
-0.38
-0.32
2015-16
2010-14
-0.26
Table 9. Monthly marketing weights for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2013 1/
Marketing
year
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
Share of total for the marketing year
1975-76
0.024
0.149
0.131
0.087
0.121
0.084
0.075
1976-77
0.018
0.132
0.136
0.097
0.116
0.080
0.082
1977-78
0.021
0.121
0.150
0.093
0.111
0.079
0.090
1978-79
0.018
0.122
0.122
0.068
0.118
0.079
0.074
1979-80
0.017
0.097
0.136
0.091
0.102
0.071
0.084
1980-81
0.021
0.185
0.123
0.075
0.149
0.067
0.082
1981-82
0.021
0.112
0.154
0.092
0.115
0.068
0.087
1982-83
0.022
0.117
0.129
0.089
0.143
0.082
0.080
1983-84
0.018
0.138
0.116
0.087
0.148
0.078
0.116
1984-85
0.027
0.133
0.168
0.075
0.118
0.069
0.095
1985-86
0.034
0.129
0.167
0.133
0.133
0.050
0.051
1986-87
0.068
0.102
0.105
0.080
0.105
0.081
0.089
1987-88
0.085
0.127
0.075
0.049
0.111
0.080
0.085
1988-89
0.109
0.141
0.073
0.078
0.118
0.061
0.081
1989-90
0.061
0.163
0.124
0.069
0.146
0.073
0.076
1990-91
0.047
0.124
0.143
0.067
0.137
0.075
0.066
1991-92
0.112
0.171
0.076
0.080
0.147
0.086
0.080
1992-93
0.060
0.093
0.140
0.128
0.125
0.074
0.085
1993-94
0.078
0.138
0.158
0.095
0.148
0.068
0.066
1994-95
0.050
0.112
0.122
0.085
0.163
0.079
0.077
1995-96
0.081
0.171
0.129
0.080
0.174
0.083
0.085
1996-97
0.040
0.114
0.132
0.080
0.151
0.098
0.080
1997-98
0.062
0.141
0.113
0.081
0.148
0.067
0.074
1998-99
0.075
0.139
0.103
0.072
0.127
0.076
0.090
1999-00
0.095
0.142
0.083
0.069
0.172
0.067
0.080
2000-01
0.113
0.158
0.086
0.068
0.150
0.053
0.064
2001-02
0.078
0.110
0.133
0.066
0.125
0.060
0.062
2002-03
0.071
0.140
0.139
0.082
0.126
0.061
0.067
2003-04
0.070
0.156
0.116
0.087
0.167
0.072
0.080
2004-05
0.078
0.117
0.117
0.086
0.124
0.084
0.082
2005-06
0.074
0.113
0.089
0.079
0.154
0.082
0.068
2006-07
0.069
0.147
0.146
0.080
0.153
0.059
0.066
2007-08
0.079
0.137
0.111
0.087
0.165
0.073
0.075
2008-09
0.045
0.094
0.119
0.089
0.128
0.064
0.096
2009-10
0.054
0.069
0.143
0.113
0.113
0.067
0.072
2010-11
0.107
0.167
0.085
0.082
0.157
0.068
0.074
2011-12
0.050
0.139
0.126
0.091
0.152
0.081
0.088
2012-13
0.111
0.158
0.094
0.075
0.140
0.062
0.087
April
May
June
July
August
Annual
2.46
2.31
2.24
2.27
2.36
3.24
2.55
2.95
3.32
2.70
2.30
1.52
1.88
2.56
2.51
2.42
2.48
2.16
2.65
2.36
3.85
2.80
2.41
2.04
2.03
1.89
1.91
2.34
2.89
2.00
2.11
3.39
5.15
3.85
3.41
6.36
6.34
6.97
4.71
2.61
2.25
2.29
2.35
2.42
3.24
2.60
3.03
3.34
2.68
2.39
1.66
1.94
2.58
2.62
2.38
2.49
2.14
2.60
2.42
4.14
2.69
2.34
1.99
2.11
1.82
1.93
2.38
2.87
1.99
2.17
3.49
5.28
3.97
3.48
6.32
6.34
6.97
4.71
2.74
2.12
2.28
2.49
2.49
3.17
2.57
3.04
3.36
2.64
2.32
1.69
2.41
2.52
2.63
2.31
2.47
2.09
2.61
2.51
4.20
2.56
2.28
1.97
1.91
1.76
1.97
2.34
2.79
2.03
2.14
3.51
5.48
4.03
3.41
6.38
6.37
6.97
4.50
2.82
1.88
2.16
2.64
2.73
3.14
2.50
3.13
3.30
2.60
2.00
1.60
2.72
2.47
2.62
2.27
2.33
2.22
2.29
2.63
4.43
2.42
2.19
1.74
1.64
1.87
2.13
2.17
2.51
2.11
2.14
3.32
5.24
3.60
3.49
6.33
7.14
6.79
4.06
2.64
1.63
2.01
2.54
2.92
2.87
2.30
3.35
3.12
2.44
1.73
1.47
2.65
2.27
2.51
2.33
2.15
2.25
2.16
2.63
4.30
2.50
1.89
1.75
1.52
1.90
2.38
2.15
2.34
1.95
2.09
3.26
5.26
3.33
3.65
6.88
7.63
6.21
3.63
2.54
2.15
2.02
2.25
2.52
3.11
2.50
2.55
3.21
2.63
2.23
1.50
1.94
2.54
2.36
2.28
2.37
2.07
2.50
2.26
3.24
2.71
2.43
1.94
1.82
1.85
1.97
2.32
2.42
2.06
2.00
3.04
4.20
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.46
April
May
June
July
August
-0.21
-0.22
-0.33
-0.27
-0.32
-0.41
-0.23
-0.18
-0.22
-0.13
0.00
-0.17
-0.16
-0.12
-0.21
-0.14
-0.05
-0.13
-0.02
-0.13
-0.69
-0.19
-0.08
-0.14
-0.24
-0.17
-0.08
-0.05
-0.27
-0.08
-0.26
-0.23
-0.78
-0.02
-0.13
-1.17
0.00
0.49
-0.31
-0.23
-0.19
-0.27
-0.32
-0.38
-0.31
-0.19
-0.07
-0.15
-0.08
0.04
-0.24
-0.20
-0.13
-0.23
-0.11
-0.09
-0.15
-0.06
-0.19
-0.67
-0.12
-0.14
-0.21
-0.29
-0.17
-0.15
-0.07
-0.15
-0.13
-0.33
-0.25
-0.75
-0.25
-0.20
-0.91
0.33
0.46
-0.19
-0.24
-0.23
-0.29
-0.38
-0.30
-0.24
-0.16
-0.07
-0.13
-0.11
0.00
-0.20
-0.49
-0.09
-0.20
-0.09
-0.09
-0.09
-0.07
-0.22
-0.46
-0.10
-0.14
-0.20
-0.17
-0.17
-0.15
-0.05
-0.07
-0.19
-0.24
-0.30
-1.51
-0.09
-0.06
-0.83
0.34
0.35
0.03
-0.10
-0.26
-0.21
-0.42
-0.44
-0.33
-0.09
0.01
0.23
0.13
0.26
-0.11
-0.44
0.02
-0.03
-0.06
0.00
-0.19
0.05
-0.25
0.57
-0.03
-0.14
-0.23
-0.21
-0.29
-0.22
0.05
0.14
-0.29
-0.35
0.02
-1.22
0.32
-0.29
-0.35
-0.45
1.51
0.27
-0.15
-0.26
-0.18
-0.28
-0.51
-0.24
-0.03
-0.18
0.15
0.14
0.12
-0.10
-0.24
-0.03
0.03
-0.16
-0.04
-0.12
-0.03
-0.20
0.66
-0.13
-0.17
-0.39
-0.26
-0.27
-0.21
-0.05
0.09
-0.20
-0.21
-0.05
-0.23
0.06
-0.44
-0.25
-0.41
1.38
0.04
March
April
May
June
July
August
-0.26
-0.29
-0.29
-0.28
-0.28
-0.24
-0.17
-0.15
-0.14
-0.13
-0.14
-0.17
-0.19
-0.17
-0.16
-0.16
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
-0.23
-0.25
-0.21
-0.19
-0.15
-0.18
-0.15
-0.16
-0.26
-0.43
-0.36
-0.35
-0.58
-0.47
-0.31
-0.39
-0.27
-0.31
-0.31
-0.28
-0.27
-0.23
-0.15
-0.14
-0.14
-0.12
-0.13
-0.16
-0.14
-0.13
-0.11
-0.09
-0.20
-0.23
-0.22
-0.25
-0.27
-0.16
-0.14
-0.14
-0.16
-0.13
-0.15
-0.18
-0.32
-0.27
-0.28
-0.47
-0.42
-0.17
-0.23
-0.28
-0.30
-0.30
-0.25
-0.22
-0.16
-0.09
-0.10
-0.13
-0.12
-0.15
-0.18
-0.15
-0.14
-0.13
-0.12
-0.23
-0.23
-0.23
-0.26
-0.28
-0.18
-0.19
-0.18
-0.17
-0.13
-0.17
-0.19
-0.32
-0.34
-0.36
-0.47
-0.36
-0.12
-0.10
-0.29
-0.29
-0.27
-0.23
-0.18
-0.14
-0.10
-0.10
-0.19
-0.18
-0.20
-0.21
-0.19
-0.11
-0.11
-0.11
-0.18
-0.19
-0.20
-0.23
-0.22
-0.16
-0.17
-0.15
-0.14
-0.13
-0.14
-0.17
-0.46
-0.47
-0.44
-0.56
-0.43
-0.06
-0.03
-0.28
-0.33
-0.30
-0.25
-0.13
-0.01
0.11
0.10
0.01
-0.03
-0.06
-0.13
-0.10
-0.05
-0.05
-0.09
0.04
0.03
0.04
-0.01
-0.01
-0.18
-0.22
-0.18
-0.17
-0.12
-0.13
-0.09
-0.34
-0.30
-0.30
-0.30
-0.40
0.15
0.14
-0.28
-0.29
-0.25
-0.25
-0.16
-0.03
0.04
0.02
0.01
-0.02
-0.04
-0.10
-0.09
-0.06
-0.07
-0.11
0.05
0.03
0.02
-0.05
-0.06
-0.24
-0.26
-0.24
-0.18
-0.13
-0.12
-0.08
-0.12
-0.13
-0.17
-0.18
-0.25
0.07
0.06
April
May
June
July
0.062
0.067
0.075
0.078
0.060
0.071
0.089
0.063
0.077
0.078
0.070
0.095
0.060
0.063
0.077
0.082
0.040
0.065
0.040
0.053
0.062
0.061
0.052
0.048
0.055
0.049
0.060
0.065
0.057
0.052
0.064
0.044
0.062
0.067
0.071
0.059
0.053
0.049
0.067
0.056
0.071
0.071
0.074
0.052
0.070
0.062
0.058
0.070
0.071
0.081
0.069
0.071
0.059
0.047
0.044
0.049
0.045
0.058
0.043
0.048
0.053
0.043
0.042
0.046
0.063
0.065
0.033
0.059
0.064
0.047
0.046
0.091
0.064
0.047
0.051
0.052
0.071
0.065
0.073
0.090
0.083
0.049
0.073
0.074
0.054
0.056
0.062
0.072
0.102
0.067
0.055
0.057
0.051
0.054
0.049
0.062
0.033
0.056
0.074
0.058
0.043
0.054
0.075
0.053
0.053
0.072
0.069
0.066
0.061
0.074
0.068
0.053
0.059
0.058
0.064
0.071
0.056
0.092
0.091
0.062
0.065
0.066
0.068
0.066
0.050
0.054
0.085
0.062
0.043
0.075
0.058
0.067
0.055
0.069
0.034
0.067
0.062
0.074
0.061
0.082
0.088
0.060
0.056
0.070
0.075
0.062
0.064
0.069
0.089
0.055
0.057
0.060
0.062
0.075
0.060
0.071
0.090
0.060
0.056
0.071
0.045
0.047
0.049
0.068
0.072
0.076
0.054
0.080
0.055
0.060
0.060
0.070
0.025
0.073
0.073
0.095
0.091
0.077
0.080
0.071
0.053
0.059
0.069
0.061
0.040
0.064
0.077
0.046
0.053
0.054
0.073
0.048
0.057
0.059
0.058
Table 10. 5-year average monthly marketing weights for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2014
Marketing
year
5-year average
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
Share of total for the marketing year
1975-79
0.020
0.124
0.135
0.087
0.114
0.079
0.081
1976-80
0.019
0.131
0.133
0.085
0.119
0.075
0.082
1977-81
0.020
0.127
0.137
0.084
0.119
0.073
0.083
1978-82
0.020
0.127
0.133
0.083
0.125
0.073
0.081
1979-83
0.020
0.130
0.132
0.087
0.131
0.073
0.090
1980-84
0.022
0.137
0.138
0.084
0.135
0.073
0.092
1981-85
0.024
0.126
0.147
0.095
0.131
0.069
0.086
1982-86
0.034
0.124
0.137
0.093
0.129
0.072
0.086
1983-87
0.046
0.126
0.126
0.085
0.123
0.072
0.087
1984-88
0.065
0.126
0.118
0.083
0.117
0.068
0.080
1985-89
0.071
0.132
0.109
0.082
0.123
0.069
0.076
1986-90
0.074
0.131
0.104
0.069
0.123
0.074
0.079
1987-91
0.083
0.145
0.098
0.069
0.132
0.075
0.078
1988-92
0.078
0.138
0.111
0.084
0.135
0.074
0.078
1989-93
0.072
0.138
0.128
0.088
0.141
0.075
0.075
1990-94
0.069
0.128
0.128
0.091
0.144
0.076
0.075
1991-95
0.076
0.137
0.125
0.094
0.151
0.078
0.079
1992-96
0.062
0.126
0.136
0.094
0.152
0.080
0.079
1993-97
0.062
0.135
0.131
0.084
0.157
0.079
0.076
1994-98
0.062
0.135
0.120
0.080
0.153
0.081
0.081
1995-99
0.071
0.141
0.112
0.076
0.154
0.078
0.082
1996-00
0.077
0.139
0.103
0.074
0.150
0.072
0.078
1997-01
0.085
0.138
0.104
0.071
0.144
0.065
0.074
1998-02
0.086
0.138
0.109
0.071
0.140
0.063
0.073
1999-03
0.085
0.141
0.111
0.074
0.148
0.063
0.071
2000-04
0.082
0.136
0.118
0.078
0.138
0.066
0.071
2001-05
0.074
0.127
0.119
0.080
0.139
0.072
0.072
2002-06
0.072
0.135
0.121
0.083
0.145
0.072
0.073
2003-07
0.074
0.134
0.116
0.084
0.153
0.074
0.074
2004-08
0.069
0.122
0.116
0.084
0.145
0.072
0.077
2005-09
0.064
0.112
0.122
0.090
0.143
0.069
0.075
2006-10
0.071
0.123
0.121
0.090
0.143
0.066
0.077
2007-11
0.067
0.121
0.117
0.092
0.143
0.071
0.081
2008-12
0.073
0.125
0.113
0.090
0.138
0.068
0.083
2009-13
0.075
0.130
0.114
0.090
0.141
0.074
0.082
April
May
June
July
0.068
0.070
0.075
0.072
0.072
0.076
0.075
0.077
0.076
0.073
0.073
0.075
0.064
0.065
0.061
0.056
0.052
0.056
0.054
0.055
0.056
0.053
0.053
0.055
0.057
0.057
0.060
0.056
0.056
0.058
0.062
0.061
0.062
0.060
0.061
0.068
0.065
0.068
0.066
0.063
0.062
0.066
0.068
0.070
0.072
0.070
0.065
0.058
0.054
0.049
0.049
0.048
0.049
0.049
0.049
0.046
0.046
0.049
0.052
0.050
0.053
0.057
0.054
0.050
0.061
0.062
0.059
0.060
0.061
0.052
0.076
0.072
0.074
0.074
0.067
0.061
0.064
0.064
0.069
0.072
0.072
0.071
0.066
0.057
0.053
0.055
0.050
0.051
0.055
0.057
0.053
0.057
0.061
0.057
0.056
0.061
0.064
0.063
0.064
0.068
0.068
0.064
0.063
0.062
0.059
0.075
0.074
0.073
0.075
0.070
0.065
0.063
0.061
0.065
0.063
0.059
0.064
0.065
0.061
0.060
0.065
0.057
0.058
0.057
0.061
0.060
0.069
0.073
0.073
0.069
0.071
0.070
0.065
0.065
0.068
0.072
0.068
0.067
0.066
0.064
2013-14
0.051
0.116
0.123
0.088
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
Table 11. WASDE monthly proje ction of the U.S. far m pr ic e rec eived for c or n by
fore cas t per iod, ma rke ting y ear 2 014 /1 5
Calendar
Weekly forecast
year
period
WASDE projection
WASDE release date
0.142
0.094
0.091
August Sum of weights

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
August Sum of weights

0.072
0.071
0.067
0.070
0.064
0.056
0.054
0.056
0.056
0.062
0.064
0.070
0.067
0.065
0.062
0.065
0.054
0.058
0.060
0.067
0.071
0.082
0.083
0.083
0.074
0.068
0.066
0.063
0.056
0.059
0.062
0.058
0.056
0.059
0.058
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
August
End of Data
2014
2015
1-May-14
8-May-14
15-May-14
22-May-14
29-May-14
5-Jun-14
12-Jun-14
19-Jun-14
26-Jun-14
3-Jul-14
10-Jul-14
17-Jul-14
24-Jul-14
31-Jul-14
7-Aug-14
14-Aug-14
21-Aug-14
28-Aug-14
4-Sep-14
11-Sep-14
18-Sep-14
25-Sep-14
2-Oct-14
9-Oct-14
16-Oct-14
23-Oct-14
30-Oct-14
6-Nov-14
13-Nov-14
20-Nov-14
27-Nov-14
4-Dec-14
11-Dec-14
18-Dec-14
25-Dec-14
1-Jan-15
8-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
29-Jan-15
5-Feb-15
12-Feb-15
19-Feb-15
26-Feb-15
5-Mar-15
12-Mar-15
19-Mar-15
26-Mar-15
2-Apr-15
9-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
23-Apr-15
30-Apr-15
7-May-15
14-May-15
21-May-15
28-May-15
4-Jun-15
11-Jun-15
18-Jun-15
25-Jun-15
2-Jul-15
9-Jul-15
16-Jul-15
23-Jul-15
30-Jul-15
6-Aug-15
13-Aug-15
20-Aug-15
27-Aug-15
Dollars per bushel

4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
3.90
3.90
3.90
3.90
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.40
9-May-14
11-Jun-14
11-Jul-14
12-Aug-14
11-Sep-14
10-Oct-14
Table 12 . WASD E m onthly projection of the U.S. fa rm price re ceive d for corn by
fore cas t per iod, ma rke ting y ear 2 013 /1 4
Calendar
Weekly forecast
year
period
WASDE projection
WASDE release date
Dollars per bushel
2013
2-May-13
4.70
9-May-13
4.70
10-May-13
16-May-13
4.70
23-May-13
4.70
30-May-13
4.70
6-Jun-13
4.70
13-Jun-13
4.80
12-Jun-13
20-Jun-13
4.80
27-Jun-13
4.80
4-Jul-13
4.80
11-Jul-13
4.80
11-Jul-13
18-Jul-13
4.80
25-Jul-13
4.80
1-Aug-13
4.80
8-Aug-13
4.80
15-Aug-13
4.90
12-Aug-13
22-Aug-13
4.90
29-Aug-13
4.90
5-Sep-13
4.90
12-Sep-13
4.80
12-Sep-13
19-Sep-13
4.80
26-Sep-13
4.80
3-Oct-13
4.80
10-Oct-13
4.80
11-Oct-13
17-Oct-13
4.80
24-Oct-13
4.80
31-Oct-13
4.80
7-Nov-13
4.50
8-Nov-13
14-Nov-13
4.50
21-Nov-13
4.50
28-Nov-13
4.50
5-Dec-13
4.50
12-Dec-13
4.40
10-Dec-13
19-Dec-13
4.40
26-Dec-13
4.40
2014
2-Jan-14
4.40
9-Jan-14
4.40
10-Jan-14
16-Jan-14
4.40
23-Jan-14
4.40
30-Jan-14
4.40
6-Feb-14
4.50
13-Feb-14
4.50
10-Feb-14
20-Feb-14
4.50
27-Feb-14
4.50
6-Mar-14
4.50
13-Mar-14
4.50
10-Mar-14
20-Mar-14
4.50
27-Mar-14
4.50
3-Apr-14
4.50
10-Apr-14
4.60
9-Apr-14
17-Apr-14
4.60
24-Apr-14
4.60
1-May-14
4.60
8-May-14
4.65
9-May-14
15-May-14
4.65
22-May-14
4.65
29-May-14
4.65
5-Jun-14
4.65
12-Jun-14
4.55
11-Jun-14
19-Jun-14
4.55
26-Jun-14
4.55
3-Jul-14
4.55
10-Jul-14
4.45
11-Jul-14
17-Jul-14
4.45
24-Jul-14
4.45
31-Jul-14
4.45
7-Aug-14
4.45
14-Aug-14
4.45
12-Aug-14
21-Aug-14
4.45
28-Aug-14
4.45
Table 13 . Policy para me ters --target price, na tional a ver age loan rate , direc t paym ent r ate , counte rC oun8te r-cyclica l
c yclic al pa yment trigger price , a nd refe rence price , ma rk eting year s 20 02-1
p aymen t trigg er
Reference
p rice
Ma rketing
yea r
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
Target price
2.60
2.60
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
D irect pa yment tri gge r price

National average loan rate pa ym ent rate p rice
Dollars per bushel
1.98
0.28
2.32
1.98
0.28
2.32
1.95
0.28
2.35
1.95
0.28
2.35
1.95
0.28
2.35
1.95
0.28
2.35
1.95
0.28
2.35
1.95
0.28
2.35
1.95
0.28
2.35
1.95
0.28
2.35
1.95
0.28
2.35
1.95
0.28
2.35
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70
3.70

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FUTURES PRICE FORECAST MODEL: estimates for the season-average price, price loss

Season-av erage farm price receiv ed

PLC payment rate

Dollars per bushel

Midpoint of WASDE projection

Explanation of forecast (table 1):

Ba sis (5-yea r U .S.

Mo nthly farm Actu al mon th ly

Mo nthly marke ting

Dollars per bushel

-------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel------------------------------------------------------------------------3.45

Forecast of season-av erage price receiv ed:

Forecast of price loss cov erage (PLC) payment rate:

1/ The marketing year for corn is September-August.

Fu tu res P LC p ay m en t r ate f ore c as t

P LC p ay m e nt rate (Do l l ars p er b ush el )

S ea so n -a ve ra ge pri ce re cei ve d (Do l la rs pe r b ush el )

Marketing year month

1-May-14 Basis = 5-year avg. 2008-2012 mkt. yr.

Marketing year month

Marketing year month

period 1/ Ag ricul tu ral Price s 2 /

Futures SAP forecast

Dollars per bushel

Dollars per bushel

WASDE release date Actu al SAP (avai lab le

Dollars per bushel

Dollars per bushel

Dollars per bushel

#NA = Not available.

Season-av erage farm price receiv ed

Dollars per bushel

Midpoint of WASDE projection

Explanation of forecast (table 1):

Mo nthly marke ting

Forecast of season-av erage price receiv ed:

Forecast of counter cyclical payment rate:

Target price ($/bu.)

Direct payment rate

Effective price ($/bu.)

[National average price

1/ The marketing year for corn is September-August.

CCP Ra te (Do ll a rs p e r Bush el )

S ea so n -a ve ra ge pri ce re cei ve d (Do l la rs pe r b ush el )

Marketing year month

1/ Weekly forecast reflects futures settlement price on that date.

2-May-13 Basis= 5-year avg. 2007-2011 mkt. yr.

Marketing year month

1/ Weekly forecast reflects futures settlement price on that date.

Marketing year month

1/ Weekly forecast reflects available farm prices received on that date.

Futures SAP forecast

Dollars per bushel

WASDE release date Actu al SAP (avai lab le

CCP trigger price

Dollars per bushel

#NA = Not available.

Basis (5-year U.S.

Monthly farm Actual monthly

-------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel---------------------------------------------------------------------September

Dollars per bushel

Forecast of season-average price received:

Forecast of price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate:

1/ The marketing year for corn is September-August.