2014-07 Deutsche Bank - India Newsletter

Deutsche Bank
Global Network Banking
India Newsletter
July 2014
On Indias economy, the financial sector & the corporate world
The economic situation

Cyclical recovery underway: High frequency
growth indicators related to India have
improved somewhat in the last couple of
months, thereby supporting our view that
the Indian economy has likely bottomed in
this cycle. Industrial sector growth has
surprised to the upside in Apr2014
(+3.4%yoy) and May2014 (+4.7%yoy),
helping the 3-month moving average to rise
to +2.5% in May2014, from -0.5% in
Mar2014. Within industrial production, we
note that the rebound in capital goods
production has been particularly striking in
Apr2014 and May2014. The improvement
in the capital goods production has been
accompanied by a sharp pickup in capital
goods momentum (improved to 18.5% in
May2014, from -8.6% in Mar2014) and
acceleration in non-oil-non-gold imports
growth. The recent PMI trend has also been
encouraging. Led by a sharp rebound in the
services sector, the composite PMI has
managed to rise above the threshold level
of 50 in Apr-Jun2014 for the first time after
three quarters. Overall, the recent data
trend indicates that the Indian economy has
embarked on the path of a cyclical
recovery; a robust structural recovery,
supported by growth-critical reforms, is
however several quarters away, in our view.
(Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research)
Monsoon update: Monsoon rains have

been deficient so far, with the overall
precipitation level registering 35% below
normal between 1st Jun2014 and 17th
Jul2014. Rainfall deficiency has reduced
somewhat from Jun2014 levels (43% below
normal), but the situation remains
worrisome. North-western and central
regions have been the worst affected so far.
The growth impact of a poor monsoon is
unlikely to be significant, given i) reduced
dependence on Kharif (summer crop), with
a commensurate increase in Rabi (winter
crop) production; ii) decreasing dependency
on monsoon, given increased use of
irrigation facilities; and iii) relatively small
share of agriculture sector (13.7%) to
influence overall economic growth. The
biggest risk of a poor monsoon is
undoubtedly inflation. A poor harvest can
potentially exacerbate pressure on food
prices. (Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research)
Purchasing
Managers
Index
(PMI):
Manufacturing PMI increased to 53.0 in
Jul2014, from 51.5 in Jun2014, thereby
pushing the 3-month moving average to a
15-month high (52.0 in Jul2014 vs. 51.4 in
Jun2014). In contrast to the manufacturing
PMI, services PMI surprised sharply to the
downside, with the Jul2014 number coming
in at 52.2, down from 54.4 in Jun2014.
Overall, the composite PMI weakened to
53.0, from 53.8 in Jun2014. We refrain from
reading too much into the monthly
fluctuation of PMI data; the 3-month moving
average clearly indicates that the economy
has bottomed in 1Q of 2014 and a cyclical
recovery is underway at present, albeit from
a depressed base. Our concern is more
regarding the inflation indicators, which
seem to be suggesting renewed pressure
on input prices, which carries the risk of
spilling over to output prices with a lag.
Inflation: CPI inflation rose to +8.0% in

Jul2014 (+0.9%mom), undoing the mild
improvement in trend seen in the previous
couple of months. The outturn was led by a
sharp spike in food prices (+2.8%mom),
especially
vegetable
prices
(up
16.9%mom). The resurgence in price
pressure was however not restricted to
food; even core CPI prices were up
0.8%mom (+7.4%yoy in Jul2014), the
highest increase since Sept2013. WPI
inflation eased to +5.2% in Jul2014 (from
5.4% in Jun2014), broadly in line with
consensus estimate of +5.1%, driven by
food prices as in the case of WPI. A
favourable base effect will help push WPI
inflation below +5% in the coming months,
assuming some softening of food prices
post Aug2014. But beyond Nov2014 when
the base effect turns negative, we see the
inflation trajectory rising once again, with
WPI heading to +6% to +6.5% by midJun2015. (Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research)
Industrial production (IP): Jun2014 IP

surprised to the downside, rising by
+3.4%yoy (vs. +5.0% in May2014), against
our and market expectation of +5.5%yoy
growth. Despite the lower than anticipated
outturn, IP growth during Apr-Jun2014
quarter has improved appreciably (to a
3-year high of +3.9% from the previous
quarter average of -0.5%. This implies a
robust pickup in industrial sector GDP
growth for Apr-Jun2014 as well (given the
strong correlation between the two indices),
which is likely to push headline GDP growth
higher by about 100bps than the previous
quarters outturn (+4.6%yoy), in our view.
Issue 33
India Newsletter
Page 1 of 5
Core infrastructure production (Jun2014)

recorded a robust growth, with the yoy rate
rising to +7.3%, from +2.3%yoy in
May2014. Besides a favorable base effect,
biggest support to growth came from subsectors such as electricity, cement, coal
and steel. (Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research)
India Newsletter
Page 2 of 5
Indias
trade
deficit
increased
to
USD11.8bn in Jun2014, from USD11.2bn in
May2014. Exports growth remained robust
(+10.2%yoy), but moderated from May2014
outturn (+12.4%yoy). Imports recorded a
positive growth (+8.3%yoy) after a gap of 1
year, led by pick up in both oil (+10.9%yoy)
and non-oil imports (+7.0%yoy) growth,
primarily driven by gold imports. Jun2014
trade data is broadly in line to meet our
FY15 annual trade deficit and current
account deficit estimate of USD 168bn
(8.0% of GDP) and USD 43bn (2.1% of
GDP) respectively. (Deutsche Bank Global
Despite a pickup in projects completed

and easing of stalled projects, we note that
incremental investments growth (i.e. the
yoy rate of incremental change in
investments between the current and the
previous quarter) decelerated further in the
quarter. This indicates that the underlying
domestic demand momentum in the
economy remains anemic and any likely
uptick in yoy growth rate of the investment
component in national accounts will be
more on account of a favorable base effect.
Markets Research)
Financial sector
India Blocks WTO Agreement to Ease

Trade Rules: India effectively blocked an
international agreement on easing trade
regulations in Jul-Aug2014, saying the
effort to promote global trade should be
linked to food security, allowing developing
countries more freedom to subsidize and
stockpile food. India's actions prompted
criticism from WTO members, some of
whom said that India's brinkmanship could
undermine the international trading system
as the country has basically hijacked the
trade talks to force a change on one issue.
India's problem relates to WTO rules on
food stockpiling and subsidizing. WTO has
a formula that defines how much money a
country can spend creating a food stockpile
for security and support for farmers. India
wants the rules changed to allow it to go
beyond the limits. (online.wsj.com)
Capex update: Latest quarterly data (AprJun2014) from Centre for Monitoring Indian
Economys CapEx database, which helps
track the trend of firm level investment in
India, breaks down investment between the
public and private sectors, in ongoing and
postponed projects, as well as the value
and number of investments. The database
presently collects information on around
45,000 projects by 9,000 firms. The
outstanding value of projects captured by
the database is about 80% of GDP. There
are three key takeaways:
We note that project completion rate
(measured in real INR terms) jumped by
+42%yoy during the quarter, entirely due to
higher rate of completion of private sector
projects compared with last years, while
public sector project completion rate has
failed
to
show
any
meaningful
improvement;
Projects stalled, both in terms of cost and
absolute units, eased in the quarter. This,
along with the pick-up in project completion
rate, led to a slight moderation in the
stalled/completed ratio of projects
Monetary policy review (Aug2014): RBI

stressed that near term inflation risks were
balanced while the medium term risks were
to the upside, but in both cases
considerable uncertainty prevailed. While
there is no inclination to keep policy tight for
a prolonged period, and clearly RBI is not
impervious to the political economy that
would demand policy easing in the coming
months, we think that the policy statement
provides a roadmap under which RBI will
try to thread the balance between fighting
inflation and supporting growth. We think
RBI will be comfortable continuing to ease
liquidity on the margin while keeping the
key policy rates unchanged. Looking at the
projected path of inflation from now till the
end of 2015, it appears to us that the room
to cut rates in a sustainable and credible
manner wont arrive for another year. We
had earlier expected a couple of rate cuts in
late 2014, only to be countered by rate
hikes in mid-2015. We now expect neither
to take place. An unchanged policy stance
with respect to rates will leave the real
policy rate to around +1% on average,
which in our view would be consistent with
the 6% inflation target (to be achieved by
Jan2016, as per RBI glide path). (Deutsche
Bank Global Markets Research)
Domestic Systemically Important Banks (DSIBs) guidelines: Released by RBI, the

guidelines focuses on D-SIBs need to hold
higher core capital, which is likely to be
about 0.6-0.8% above the minimum 8%
Common Equity Tier (CET) 1 ratio required
by banks over time. This will lead to higher
equity dilution by public sector banks
(PSBs) over time. Private banks may also
need to put aside this capital, but they look
reasonably well placed on capital. Under
the framework the indicators to be used for
assessment are: size, interconnectedness,
substitutability and complexity with weights
assigned. Based on their systemic
importance, banks will be plotted into 4
different buckets and will be required to
have additional CET 1 requirement ranging

from 0.2% to 0.8% of Risk Weighted
Assets, depending upon the bucket. D-SIBs
will also be subjected to differentiated
supervisory requirements and higher
intensity of supervision. Names of banks
classified as D-SIBs will be disclosed in
August every year starting from 2015.
Trade Receivables Discounting System

(TReDS): RBI moved closer in setting up
TReDS - an exchange driven receivables
/invoice trading mechanism that could end
the agony of Small and Medium Enterprises
(MSMEs) which face endless delays in
receiving payments for their supplies to
bigger companies. TReDS will provide the
platform to bring participants together for
facilitating
uploading,
accepting,
discounting, trading and settlement of the
invoices / bills of MSMEs. Proposed model
is akin to Mexican development bank
Nafinsa's creation of an electronic platform.
Stocks exchanges, depositaries, clearing
corporations could be ideal candidates
which could bid to set up TReDS which
helps shorten working capital cycle of
MSMEs. MSME sellers, corporate buyers
and financiers - both banks and non-bank
can participate in this platform, which may
be launched by NSE, BSE or the Clearing
Corporation of India. TReDS would facilitate
the discounting of both invoices as well as
bills of exchange - two forms of fund-based
instruments. (Business Standard)
Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) into India
may hit a record in 2014; surpassing the
USD 24bn recorded in 2012, market
strategists based in the US and Asia-Pacific
say. Even as the indices are hovering
around record levels, holdings of FIIs are at
an all-time high and there is a premium of
416 basis points to the MSCI Emerging
Market Index. Indian equity markets have
been the biggest recipient of FII flows
among emerging markets in 2014. As a
result, India's weightage among the
regional funds such as BRIC's fund, AsiaPacific Fund and Emerging Market fund has
reached a significantly higher level than its
historical average. Indian markets have
succeeded in staving off the risk of
diversion of fund flows on two counts. First,
FIIs believe that the new government will
bring
massive
transformational
and
structural changes in the policy and reform
process in order to pep up the sluggish
economy. Second, trajectory of crude oil
prices, the biggest risk for the government's
balance sheet, is easing. (The Economic Times)
Fund raising via preferential allotment
dropped 58%yoy in Apr-Jun2014 quarter to
Disclaimer
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its
affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank"). The information herein is believed by Deutsche Bank to be
reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. Deutsche Bank makes no
representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information.
Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgement of the cited
sources and/or the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of
Deutsche Bank or any of its subsidiaries and affiliates and are subject to change without notice.
Deutsche Bank nor its subsidiaries/affiliates has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report
or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion,
projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.
This report is provided for informational purposes only. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or
sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any
particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information contained in this report does not
constitute the provision of investment advice. Neither Deutsche Bank AG nor its subsidiaries/affiliates
accept any responsibility for liabilities arising from the use of this document or its contents.
India Newsletter
Page 3 of 5
INR 115.73bn. During the entire 2013/14

fiscal, companies had mopped up more
than INR 460bn through this route.
However, the number of preferential issues
grew to 171 in Apr-Jun2014 quarter, from
126 in the preceding 3 months. Market
participants attribute the slowdown to
companies preference for Qualified
Institutional Placement (QIP) issues for
fund raising. (Hindu Business Line)
Multiple price bids for bond auctions: RBI
will revert to the multiple price method for
bond auctions, after a year when the
present practice of a uniform price method
was adopted. Under uniform price method,
all successful bidders are required to pay
for the allotted quantity of securities at the
same rate while under multiple price
method; bidders are required to pay at
respective price or yield, at which bids were
placed. Market participants say aggressive
pricing, typically seen under uniform pricing
method, could be one reason for the
change. (Business Standard)
Financial Inclusion Mission: Government
will set up a credit guarantee fund to
support its over INR 400bn new Financial
Inclusion Mission, which envisages to give
INR 5,000 overdraft facility to around 80mn
new account holders. The scheme could
also be extended to present account
holders which according to estimates may
exceed over 150mn accounts, thus putting
a burden of over INR 750bn on the banking
system. (The Economic Times)
Market Indicators (July 29, 2014)

India Stock Indices
(Source: Bloomberg)
1 Month
Change
1 Year
Change
Sens ex (25991.23)
3.55%
32.65%
Ni fty (7748.7)
3.19%
32.87%
BSE Sma ll Cap (9966.64)
-0.56%
82.24%
BSE Mi d Cap (9139.22)
-0.72%
60.23%
Major Comm. Indices

(Source: Bloomberg)
1 Month
Change
1 Year
Change
Crude (MCX) (6110)
-4.05%
-0.94%
Gol d (MCX) (27890)
-0.70%
-0.80%
Agri Index (MCX) (3028.48)
0.58%
2.97%
Meta l Index (MCX) (4824.35)
1.02%
6.78%
1 Month
Change
1 Year
Change
Major Exchange Rates

(Source: Bloomberg)
USD/INR (60.1375)
0.09%
1.21%
EUR/INR (80.8082)
-1.26%
2.43%
EUR/USD (1.3409)
-1.76%
1.11%
USD/JPY (102.12)
0.69%
4.25%
Inflation numbers
(Source: Bloomberg)
1 Month
1 Year
Change (bps) Change (bps)
WPI (5.43%)
-75.00
27.00
CPI (7.46%)
-82.00
-241.00
Major Yields & Rates

(Source: Bloomberg)
1 Month
1 Year
Change (bps) Change (bps)
Repo (8%)
0.00
75.00
Govt 1yr (8.319)
0.06
-0.25
Govt 10yr (8.432)
-0.31
0.31
Comme rcia l Pa per (9.3875)
3.75
-142.50
Corporate Bond (9.3889)
19.86
-35.36
Industry / corporate sector

Rural consumption growth remain bullish:
Consumer goods makers stand to profit
from a sharper focus on India's rural areas,
where ownership of products such as cars,
motorcycles and white goods more than
doubled between 2004/05 and 2011/12
according to latest statistics. The much
lower penetration than urban markets also
shows that there is a correspondingly
higher potential for growth. About 50% of
the rural households owned a television in
2011/12 compared with 25% in 2004/05, as
per national statistical agencys report titled
'Household Consumption of Various Goods
and Services in India'. Similarly, 9.4%
households in villages possessed a
refrigerator in 2011/12 against 4.4% in
2004/05. Spending on products such as
mobiles and laptops also rose very fast in
rural areas. Significantly, increase in rural
spending happened even as the dismal
power supply improved only marginally
during the period. (The Economic Times)
Indias luxury market: India's luxury market
is set to exceed USD 10bn mark by 2014,
boosted by a new class of wealthy termed
'closet customers', who have have joined
the traditionally rich contributing to higher
luxe sales. From about USD 3.66bn in
2007, the luxury market has more than
doubled to USD 7.58bn in 2012. Growth is
seen at nearly 17% in 2014. According to
the World Wealth Report released by
Capgemini and RBC Wealth Management
in Jan2014, India is ranked 16th in the list
of countries with the highest number of high
net worth individuals (at about 156,000) in
2013. With spending by India's rich
continuing to grow unhindered by any
slowdown, aligning with fashion events,
shows and designers has become the latest
trend among investors, brands and
marketers alike. That explains why BMW
signed a sponsorship deal with the
upcoming India Bridal Fashion Week, which
is the company's first association with
fashion anywhere in the world. It's also why
private equity firm Everstone Capital

invested INR 1bn in designer Ritu Kumar's
company. Also, L Capital, an investment
arm of luxury giant LVMH Group, picked up
stakes in homegrown garment retailer
Fabindia and luxury retailer Genesis
Luxury, and still has an appetite for more
such deals. (The Economic Times)
Branded-hotel occupancy remain subdued:
India's branded-hotel occupancy rate
remained below 60% in Apr-Jun2014,
marginally better than last year's level in the
same quarter. All-India average room rates
during the quarter declined 3%, hovering at
INR 5,500/night. Tariffs have dropped 40%
in last 4 years. Experts attributed the poor
industry performance to the growing supply
of rooms and the general economic
slowdown. Branded-hotel room inventory
has risen close to 40%, or 96,000 rooms, in
the last 4 years while demand has grown
lower at 15%. According to hotel
consultancy firm HVS, India is expected to
add another 54,000 branded rooms in the
coming 3 to 4 years. (The Economic Times)
Domestic construction equipment industry:
Driven by growth in investment in the
infrastructure sector, domestic construction
equipment industry is likely to grow at 12%
CAGR to USD 4bn by 2017, increasing
India's global share to 10% by 2017, says a
survey. The growth will be driven by
infrastructure investment of USD 1tn during
12th Five Year Plan. According to a report
by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,
India's construction equipment market,
though small by global standards, is
extremely competitive and has players
operating under different strategies. Post
2014 general elections; there is an
expected economic resurgence which will
boost urbanisation of India. Government
has granted new infrastructure projects and
is
allowing
huge
investments
in
infrastructure
industry.
Residential
construction industry is expected to grow
from a CAGR of 10.8% during 2006/11 to
15.3% by 2017. (The Economic Times)
SEZ abroad for chemicals: Government of
India is mulling setting up chemical and
petrochemical complex in countries having
easy access to feedstock to ensure
availability of primary chemical raw
materials exclusively for Indian companies.
Government has identified Iran and
Myanmar for this purpose and is planning to
start the dialogue on these complexes. This
will be a win-win deal for all these countries.
While India can gain access to critical
hydrocarbon feedstocks, Iran and Myanmar
will witness investment in refinery by Indian
companies. (Business Standard)
Disclaimer
India Newsletter
Regulatory environment
Telecom
regulator
(TRAI)
releases
guidelines for spectrum sharing: TRAI has
issued detailed recommendation for
spectrum sharing, which we believe are
likely to be accepted by the Dept of
Telecom (the licensor) and promulgated
into rules. The new recommendations allow
sharing of spectrum only if the two
operators have spectrum in the same band
in the same market i.e. circle. The current
recommendations on these aspects are
positive compared to the previous rules.
The increase in usage charge is only 0.5%
of revenues compared to the pre-sharing
baseline being paid by the operator. The
previous rule would almost double the
usage charge. The M&A guidelines limit the
spectrum held by a single operator to 25%
of total assigned in a market or 50% of
spectrum in a band. (Deutsche Bank Global
Markets Research)
Guidelines for reserves exempt bonds for

infra and mortgage financing have been
issued by RBI. Banks can raise these
bonds with a minimum maturity of 7 years.
We believe that funding costs on these
bonds could be 70-80 bps lower and priority
sector benefits could result in a 100 bps
positive impact. Larger banks will benefit
the most, as they are better placed to raise
long-term funds. The size of the bond
market will be a constraining factor. While
the bigger challenges for infrastructure
relate to government policy decisions,
higher interest rates and maturity
mismatches which banks run also restrict
the flow of funds to the sector. Even a 1%
interest rate reduction for a 10-15 year
asset could result in substantial savings for
the infrastructure project, and better liquidity
will also help the asset quality somewhat.
SEBI issued draft rules for infrastructure

trusts, which would allow companies to
monetize their infrastructure projects.
Among the guidelines, SEBI proposes to
allow infrastructure trusts to raise money
either through a public issue or a private
placement, with a minimum issue size of
INR 2.5bn (USD 41.54mn). Tax incentives
for infrastructure investment trusts have
already been declared. (Reuters)
RBI unveiled draft guidelines for setting up
small banks. The move aim at providing
savings instruments to the un-served and
under-served sections of population and
give loans to small farmers, micro and small
enterprises, and other un-organised sector
businesses. Although capital adequacy of
Page 4 of 5
15% will be mandatory, they will be

computed on relatively simpler Basel-1
standards since such banks will not deal
with sophisticated products. Small banks
will be subject to all regulations of RBI as
applicable to existing commercial banks,
including the maintenance of Cash Reserve
Ratio and Statutory Liquidity Ratio.
Promoters initial contribution should be at
least 40% of the banks total paid-up
capital. In case it is more, the promoter will
be required to bring down the holding to
26% within 12 years from the date of
commencement of business of the bank.
(Hindu Business Line)
SEBI is set to issue fresh guidelines on the

settlement guarantee fund (SGF), which
could see the introduction of a core fund
and limit the liability of non-defaulting
members. Members will not be able to take
any exposure against core fund, aimed at
providing extra cushion in trade settlement.
All
intermediaries,
including
stock
exchanges, clearing corporations (CC) and
brokers, will have to contribute towards the
core fund. (Business Standard)
Separate governance standards for "big
and complex business groups" is being
mooted by SEBI that includes those
pertaining to related party transactions and
independent directors. Proposals also
include integration of disclosures made by
entities under different regulations to
reduce the number of times the same
disclosure is to be made by an individual.
(Business Standard)
Company News
Amazon, worlds largest online retailer, said
it was pumping in fresh investments of USD
2bn in its Indian arm, Amazon.in, a day
after Indias biggest e-commerce company,
FlipKart announced that it had raised USD
1bn in funding from private equity investors.
Amazon launched its Indian marketplace in
Jun2013. (Hindu Business Line)
David Lloyd, British health and fitness
group, is buying around 20% stake in
Talwalkars Better Value Fitness, Mumbaibased chain of health centres, for INR 1bn.
David Lloyd Leisure Group operates 81
clubs in the UK and a further 10 clubs
across Europe. (Business Standard)
EDF Energies Nouvelles, French green
energy company, and Luxembourg-based
EREN have acquired 25% stake each in
ACME Solar Energy Ltd, the solar energy
arm of India-based ACME Cleantech
Solutions for INR 5.5bn. (Business Standard)
Piramal Enterprises Ltd, an India based

conglomerate, has tied up with Dutch
pension fund APG Asset Management to
invest USD 1bn in Indian infrastructure
companies over 3 years. Piramal and APG
have each initially committed USD 375mn
for investments under the alliance. (Reuters)
Trafigura, the Swiss commodities giant, has
launched an online store in India to sell
primary metals, seeking a slice of USD 8bn
market and becoming the first big
commodities trader to cater to hordes of
small manufacturers dotting the country.
India's primary metals market is forecast to
grow at up to 8% a year. (Reuters)
Tide Water Oil Co (India), a lubricant
manufacturer, has signed an agreement
with Japan's JX Nippon Oil & Energy Corp
to form a joint venture company in India JX Nippon TWO Lubricants India. Both
companies will have equal stake in the new
entity. (The Economic Times)
Swatch, the Swiss watchmaker, which has
recently sought permission to set up shop
in India, has proposed to procure small or
melee diamonds from India to meet 30%
local sourcing requirement for foreign
companies in single-brand retail. Swatch
proposes to invest USD 10mn over 5 years
to set up 30-35 retail stores. (The Economic
Times)
Miscellaneous
Indian whiskies tighten grip over global
growth
charts:
Data
from
Drinks
International shows that 7 among the top 10
fastest growing whisky brands in the world
are Indian. Radico Khaitan's Crown clocked
in the highest global growth of 75% in 2013,
followed by Pernod Ricard's Imperial Blue
(40%), Allied Blenders & Distillers' Officer's
Choice (31%) and United Spirits Ltd's
Haywards Fine (30%). Pernod's The
Glenlivet single malt was the only global
brand to feature in the top 5 with a growth
of 25%. Officer's Choice is presently the
largest selling whisky brand globally with
23.8mn cases (of 9 litre each) ousting
McDowell's No. 1 to the top spot. The
famed Johnnie Walker, which was market
leader only 3 years ago, is now the 3rd
largest selling whisky brand in the world
with 20.1mn cases. Terming Indian whisky
as a 'powerhouse', Drinks International said
that of the 17 'millionaire' whisky brands in
India, 11 reported robust growth in 2013. In
India's 310mn cases strong spirits market,
Whisky sales overwhelmingly dominate with
175mn cases, accounting for 57% of the
market. (The Economic Times)
Disclaimer
India Newsletter
Economic & Financial Indicators

Ratings:
Fitch: BBB- (Stable)
S&P: BBB- (Negative)
Moodys: Baa2 (Stable)
2012 (12/13)
2013 (F) (13/14)
2014 (F) (14/15)
2015 (F) (15/16)
USD bn
1838
1882
1986
2254
USD
1509
1522
1583
1770
Real GDP Growth
FY, % yoy
4.5
4.7
5.5
6.5
Real GDP Growth
CY, % yoy
4.9
4.4
5.6
6.0
Priv. consumption
% yoy
5.7
4.0
5.6
6.0
Govt consumption
% yoy
7.6
4.4
2.9
5.0
FY, % yoy (avg)
9.7
10.1
7.4
7.4
Merchandise exports
FY, USD bn
301.9
319.7
329.6
354.3
Merchandise Imports
FY, USD bn
503.5
466.2
484.5
544.2
Trade Balance
FY, USD bn
-201.7
-146.5
-154.9
-189.8
% of GDP
-11.0
-7.8
-7.6
-8.4
Current Account
FY, USD bn
-91.5
-49.2
-32.4
-57.3
-2.5
Nominal GDP
GDP per Capita
CPI
% of GDP
-5.0
-2.6
-1.6
Fiscal accounts (consolidated deficit)
% of GDP
-7.2
-7.0
-7.0
-6.7
Govt debt
% of GDP
68.5
66.6
64.6
62.9
>Domestic
% of GDP
64.9
63.3
61.5
60.0
>External
% of GDP
3.6
3.3
3.1
2.9
% of GDP
21.4
22.7
23.6
23.3
FX reserves
USD bn
295.6
293.9
334.2
373.9
FDI (net)
USD bn
15.4
26.3
25.0
30.0
FX Rate
INR/USD (eop)
54.8
61.8
61.0
63.0
Total external debt
Source: Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research as of 18 July 2014. Please note that these figures may not match with those mentioned before due to different sources.
Abbreviation index:
1H= First half, 2Q= Second quarter, 3mma= 3-month moving average, AD= Authorized dealer, ADB= Asian Development Bank, AMFI= Association of Mutual Funds in India,
Avg= Average, BMI= Business Monitor International, bn= Billion, BoP= Balance of payments, Bps= Basis points, BSE= Bombay Stock Exchange, CAGR= Compounded annual
growth rate, Capex= Capital expenditures, CCD= Compulsorily convertible debentures, CCI= Competition Commission of India, CCPS= Compulsorily convertible preference
shares, CD= Certificates of deposits, CERC= Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, CIC-ND-SI= Systemically Important Core Investment Company, CPI= Consumer price
7
index, crore= Unit in the Indian number system equal to 10m (10,000,000; 10 ) or 100 lakhs, CRR= Cash reserve ratio, DB= Deutsche Bank, Dept= Department, DIPP=
Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion (Government of India, Ministry of Commerce & Industry), ECB= External commercial borrowing, EEFC= Exchange Earner's Foreign
Currency, EM= Emerging Market, FCNR= Foreign currency Non-Resident, FCY= Foreign currency, FDI= Foreign direct investment, FICCI= Federation of Indian Chambers of
Commerce and Industry, FII= Foreign institutional investors, FIPB = Foreign Investment Promotion Board, FPI= Foreign Portfolio Investor, FTA= Free trade agreement, FX=
Foreign exchange, FY= Financial year, GDP= Gross domestic product, GIC= Global in-house centres, IATA= International Air Transport Association, IFC= International Finance
Corporation, IGCC= Indo-German Chamber of Commerce, IIP= Index of Industrial Production, IMF= International Monetary Fund, INR= Indian Rupee, IP= Industrial production,
IRDA= Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority, JV= Joint venture, kg= Kilogram, LatAm= Latin America, mn= Million, M&A= Mergers & acquisitions, MNC=
Multination corporations, m-o-m= Month-on-month, MoU= Memorandum of understanding, mt= Metric tons, MW= Megawatts, NBFC= Non-Banking Financial Company, NEFT=
National Electronic Funds Transfer, Nifty= National Stock Exchanges Fifty, NPA= Non-Performing Assets, NRI= Non-resident Indian, NSE= National Stock Exchange of India,
NSSO= National Sample Survey Organisation, OECD= Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development, OEM= Original equipment manufacturers, PE= Private equity,
PMI= Purchasing Managers Index, PPP= Public-private partnership, QFI=Qualified foreign investors, qoq= Quarter-on-quarter, R&D= research and development, RBI= Reserve
Bank of India, sa= Seasonally adjusted, SEBI= Securities and Exchange Board of India, SGD= Singapore Dollar, Sensex= Benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange,
SEZ= Special Economic Zone, SIAM= Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, SLR= Statutory Liquidity Ratio, SME= Small-medium-sized enterprises, tn= Trillion, TRAI=
Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, UK= The United Kingdom, UAE= United Arab Emirates, UNCTAD= United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, WPI=
Wholesale price index, yoy= Year-on-year, ytd= Year to date. Months may have been abbreviated by their first 3 or 4 letters (eg Jan for January).
Disclaimer

2014-07 Deutsche Bank - India Newsletter

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

2014-07 Deutsche Bank - India Newsletter

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Deutsche Bank

Global Network Banking

On Indias economy, the financial sector & the corporate world

The economic situation

Monsoon update: Monsoon rains have

Inflation: CPI inflation rose to +8.0% in

Industrial production (IP): Jun2014 IP

(Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research)

(Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research)

Core infrastructure production (Jun2014)

Despite a pickup in projects completed

India Blocks WTO Agreement to Ease

(Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research)

Monetary policy review (Aug2014): RBI

Domestic Systemically Important Banks (DSIBs) guidelines: Released by RBI, the

have additional CET 1 requirement ranging

Trade Receivables Discounting System

INR 115.73bn. During the entire 2013/14

Market Indicators (July 29, 2014)

BSE Sma ll Cap (9966.64)

BSE Mi d Cap (9139.22)

Major Comm. Indices

Crude (MCX) (6110)

Gol d (MCX) (27890)

Agri Index (MCX) (3028.48)

Meta l Index (MCX) (4824.35)

Major Exchange Rates

Major Yields & Rates

Govt 1yr (8.319)

Govt 10yr (8.432)

Comme rcia l Pa per (9.3875)

Corporate Bond (9.3889)

Industry / corporate sector

private equity firm Everstone Capital

Guidelines for reserves exempt bonds for

SEBI issued draft rules for infrastructure

15% will be mandatory, they will be

SEBI is set to issue fresh guidelines on the

Piramal Enterprises Ltd, an India based

Economic & Financial Indicators

Fitch: BBB- (Stable)

S&P: BBB- (Negative)

Moodys: Baa2 (Stable)

2013 (F) (13/14)

2014 (F) (14/15)

2015 (F) (15/16)

Real GDP Growth

Real GDP Growth

FY, % yoy (avg)

Fiscal accounts (consolidated deficit)

Total external debt

You might also like