41134119

History and Epistemology of Models: Meteorology (19461963) as a Case Study
Author(s): Amy Dahan Dalmedico

Source: Archive for History of Exact Sciences, Vol. 55, No. 5 (April 2001), pp. 395-422
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Arch.Hist.ExactSci. 55 (2001) 395-422. SpringerVerlag2001
Historyand Epistemology
ofModels:
(1946-1963) as a Case Study
Meteorology
AmyDahan Dalmedico
Communicatedby I. SCHNEIDER
Abstract
Thispaperfocuseson scientific
practicesandproblemsof modelingin thecase of
This
domain
is
on
becauseof itscrucialinfluence
meteorology.
especiallyinteresting
theconception
ofmathematical
modelsanditslinkswithnumerical
instability,
computers,andthescienceof chaos and dynamicsystems.All of thesequestionsinvolvefor
theirsolutiona considerable
mathematical
apparatuswhichwas developedby several
mathematicians.
An earlyexampleis vonNeumann'sandCharney'sPrinceton
ProMeteorological
in
the
which
ended
with
1946-53
numerical
in
2
less
than
ject
period
daily
prediction
hours.After
thisstage,thequestionsoflong-range
and
circulation
of
forecasting general
theatmosphere
becameofgreater
The late 1950ssaw theemergence
ofan
importance.
alternative:
wereatmospheric
modelsusedmainlyforprediction
orunderstanding?
This
controversial
debatein particular
occurredduringan important
in
colloquium Tokyo
in 1960 whichgathered
J.Charney,
E. Lorenz,A. Eliassen,and B. Saltzman,
together
methodsforpredictions
and/or
amongothers,and witnesseddiscussionson statistical
maximum
of
This
in
ended
with
1963
Lorenz's
simplificationdynamicequations.
phase
seminalpaperon "Deterministic
nonperiodicflows."
Introduction
In thehistory
of therelationship
betweenmathematics
and thenaturalworld,one
froman eraofappliedmathematics
bestassociatedwiththeexmaydiscerna transition
(ofphysicalphenomena)to a newerain scientific
pression"mathematization"
practice
inthe1930s,was mainlydevelopedaftertheSecondWorldWar
which,albeitappearing
and whichis associatedwithexpressionssuchas "modeling."In theaftermath
of the
transformations
occurred
inboththesocialandthetechnological
realms
war,important
thatfostered
thedevelopment
ofa mathematical
oftheworld.On theone
understanding
as
John
von
Neumann's
careeraptlysymbolizes,
thestatusofthemathematician
hand,
The imageof themathematician
moreor less lockedintohis
changedsignificantly.1
1 These
willnotbedeveloped
here.See DahanDalmedico
questions
[1996].

396
A. Dahan Dalmedico
academicmilieuwas replacedbythatofan expertclose to thepoliticalpowerand who

andtechnological
was the'manager'ofbig scientific
projects.On theotherhand,with
ofincreasingly
newpossibilities
thedevelopment
computational
powerful
technologies,
andchallengesarosewhichgaverisetoinnovative
modelingpractices.Epistemological
anddeterministic
modelsweremademanifest
tensionsbetweenstatistical
bythesenew
thealternative
betweenunderstanding
andoperating
orpredictpractices.In particular,
aspectsofscienceinthesecondhalfofthecentury,
ingbecameoneofthemostimportant
in physics(as discussedby Paul Formanin thecase of quantumelectrodynamics),
but
also in appliedmathematics.
forthepresentstudybecause,in myopinI haveselectedthecase of meteorology
to modeling.Set
emblematicof theshiftfrommathematization
ion, it is particularly
aftertheend of WorldWarII, thePrinceton
up in partby von Neumannimmediately
thesocial
MeteorologicalProjectwas explicitlyintendedas a meansof transforming
in whichresearchwas conductedfroman individualto an essentially
collective
settings
was amongthefirstscientific
endeavor.Moreover,meteorology
disciplineswherethe
themathematical
adventof numericalmethodstransformed
practiceof its scientists.
As WilliamAspraywrotein his biographyof von Neumann,the "computeralmost
science."2Therefore,
made
intoa mathematical
transformed
meteorology
meteorology
and understanding,
and dynamics,betweenprediction
thetensions,betweenstatistics
especiallyacute.One may even arguethatit was in theconflictbetweenpredicting
theatmospheric
theweatherand understanding
(and indeedcontrolling)
systemthat
This crucialrole of
tensionsinitiallysurfacedmostforcefully.
theseepistemological
examination.
meritsfurther
andnumericalsimulations
computers
and meteorological
I will first
practiceswerelike
brieflysketchwhatmeteorology
era.Then,I deal withthebeginnings
beforethecomputer
duringtheearly20thcentury,
NumericalProject.In these
ofvonNeumann'sElectronic
ProjectandhisMeteorological
historical
accounts,I relymainlyon W. Aspray'sandF. Nebecker'sbooks.3However,I
illuminate
focuson theepistemological
aspectsofmodelingpracticesin orderto better
thedrasticchangeswhichoccuredinthelate1950'sandwhichI discussintheremainder
ofthearticle.
I. Meteorologybeforethecomputerera
in theweatherinvolved
interest
Up untilthemiddleof the20thcenturyscientific
threekindsofactivity:
to infer
andthentrying
ofrecording
observations,
1) An empiricalactivity
consisting
was mainly
thisempiricaltradition
fromtherecordeddata.Generally,
something
as a
of an "averageweather"and was characterized
in theproduction
interested
science- called 'climatology'- mainlybased on weatherstatistics.
descriptive
to explainatmospheric
phenomenaon thebasis of
2) A theoretical
activitystriving
its
as
of
point,thistheoretical
starting
generalprinciples.Usingthelaws physics
2
Aspray[1990],p. 152.
3
Aspray[1990],Nebeker[1995].

ModelsinMeteorology
(1946-1963)
397
as a scientific
tradition
established
dynamicalmeteorology
discipline.In composseldomused thelargeamountof available
however,theorists
ing theirtreatises,
data.
meteorological
concerned
withweather
Forecasters
basedtheirpre3) A practicalactivity
prediction.
dictionson onlya smallamountof dataand hardlyanytheoryat all. Hencetheir
More an artthana
workwas regardedby thetwo othergroupsas unscientific.
werefoundedon individualexperiences,
a fewelementary
stascience,forecasts
tisticalrelations,
andsomequalitative
rather
thanon theory
or
physicalarguments,
theapplication
ofgeneralmethodsandprocedures.
Thesynoptic
as itwas
tradition,
structures
called,studiedsome characteristic
by meansof whichtheatmosphere
couldbe analyzed.Thankstotheir"know-how",
weresupposedly
able
synopticians
to recognizehowthesestructures
their
changedand to detectsignalsannouncing
appearanceordisappearance.
Connections
becamestronger
and morenuamongthesethreeseparatetraditions
merousinthefirst
halfofthe20thcentury.
Transformations
whichlaterled to
occurred,
theirunification.
severalattempts
weremadetointroduce
But,although
objectivemethods basedon theoretical
until1950 no one was able to matchthesuccess
foundations,
oftheearliersubjective
methodsofforecasting.
No significant
increasein theaccuracy
ofshort-range
resulted.
Unification
on
of
predictions
hingedmainly thenewavailability
fastcomputing
machines.
Two menareparticularly
important
duringthisfirst
period:VilhelmBjerknesand
LewisFryRichardson.
In 1903Bjerknes,a Norwegianphysicist
whohadturned
tomebecame
an
advocate
for
the
to
weather
teorology,
computational
approach
forecasting.
He wishedtobringthefullrangeofobservations
withtheory
inordertopredict
together
theweather.
He was thefirst
to identify
suchas baroclinicity
and barokey-concepts
In
his
1904
wrote:
"We
of
tropicity.4
program,
Bjerknes
forgoanythought analytical
methods
ofintegration
andinstead,
inthefollowposetheproblemofweather
prediction
form:
Based
the
observations
that
have
been
the
initial
stateof
made,
ingpractical
upon
theatmosphere
is represented
a
number
charts
which
the
distribution
by
of
give
ofseven
variablesfromlevelto levelin theatmosphere.
Withthesechartsas thestarting
point,
newchartsofa similarkindare to be drawnwhichrepresent
thenewstatefromhour
tohou' 5 However,
no analyticmethodsforsolvingthephysicalequationsinvolvedin
thisprocedure
wereknownat thattime,and so Bjerkneswas forcedto relymainlyon
methods.
graphical
Richardson's1922program
The nextpersonto tryto carryout Bjerknes'
s programwas theEnglishscientist
Lewis FryRichardson.Perhaps,as Aspraysuggested,it was thehope of applyinga
4 A modelis
whenpressure
onthelocation
notonthelocalheight;
barotropic
depends
only,
itis baroclinic
whena vertical
is incorporated
whichtakesintoaccount
the
pressure
component
oftheairandthelossofpotential
mixing
energy.
5
[1990],p. 126.
Aspray

A. Dahan Dalmedico
398
numericalmethodforsolvingpartialdifferential
equations(whichhe had discovered
thatled Richardsonto turntowardsmeteorology.
whileworkingin industry)
Shortly
schemeforweatherprediction
based on
afterWorldWarI, he devisedan algorithmic
Prediction
thismethod.In 1922,Richardson
byNumerical
publishedhisbook Weather
and
Process,whichbecamewellknown.It openedwithan analogybetweenastronomy
leadingup to thefollowingcriticalremark:"The forecastis based on the
meteorology,
condidthen[ata previoustimewhentheweather
thatwhattheatmosphere
supposition
is used,
ditionsweresimilar],itwilldo againnow....Thepast history
oftheatmosphere
so to speak,as a full-scalemodelofitspresentself" Richardsonwenton: "But- one
- theNauticalAlmanac,thatmarvelofaccurateforecasting
is notbased on
mayreflect
It wouldbe safeto
thatastronomical
theprinciple
history
repeatsitselfin theaggregate.
ofstars,planets,and satellitesneveroccurstwice.Why
disposition
saythata particular
in a catalogue
thenshouldwe expecta presentweathermap to be exactlyrepresented
to thedominant
referred
HereRichardson
ofpastweather?".6
synoptic
point
implicitly
he advocated
ofviewofwhichhe strongly
FollowingBjerknes'sprogram,
disapproved.
theuse ofdifferential
equationsandanalyticmethods.
determine
sevenequationsthatwouldcompletely
Richardsonset outto formulate
threeequationsareessenthebehavioroftheatmosphere
givenitsinitialstate.The first
Thefourth
equationsaysthat
tiallyNewton'slaw (forceequalsmasstimesacceleration).
decreasesat a place,thanmattermusthavemovedaway.The fifth
ifthemass-density
The sixthsaysthatan additionofheatmusteither
saysthesameforthewatercontent.
or do workorboth.Thereis also a seventhequation(notwritten
raisethetemperature
to
of Boyle's law (thatpressureis inversely
here)whichis a combination
proportional
to absolutetemperature)
volume)andCharles'law (thatvolumeis directly
proportional
withan allowancemadeforthepresenceof watervapor.
whichbecame
describeRichardson'sprocedure,
we summarily
In thefollowing,
canonicalmuchlater.7
The six equationsare:
1 dp
r
-du = -u du v du w du fu
dx
dt
dz
pdx
dy
-dv = -u dv
dx
dt
dv
dy
dv
dz
fu
1 dp
p dy
1
dw ~ dw
dw
dw
dp
~
~t ~UJx~V~ W~ g p dz
-dp = - u dp
dx
dt
dp =
dp
vdp wdp
dz
dy
dp
dv dw'
I(du 1
I
1
dy dz J
'dx
dp ~ Cp (du + dv + dw'
~t ~u~x~
'Jx~ aj
~v~fy~ w~l ~~vp
"aFy
6 Ibidem, 127.
Emphasismine.
p.
7 Ibidem, 124-127. See also Nebecker[1995],pp. 65-67.
pp.

Modelsin Meteorology
(1946-1963)
399
dT _
dT ~ dT " dT ~ RT^idu dv dw'
~
+
"7 ~U~dx V~dy Wlh "T'Jx + ~dy
'dz)
ofthefluidvelocityin thex, y,z directions;
whereu, v, w, arecomponents
Cp repreat constant
sentstheheatcoefficient
p thelocal mass densityof thefluid,/
pressure,
theCoriolisparameter,
ofgravity,
and,finally,
Cv
p theambient
g theconstant
pressure,
thespecificheatatconstant
volume.T is theabsolutetemperature,
R is thegas constant
relatedto Avogadro'snumber.
Theseequationsimplythatthetimederivatives
can be expressedin termsofspatial
derivatives.
- Observational
dataforall independent
variablesin theequationsarecollectedat an
initialtimet at each pointof a finitegridevenlydistributed
overa regionof the
atmosphere.
- The methodof finitedifferences
is used as an approximation
of spatialderivatives,
andthetimederivatives
arethencomputedbymeansoftheequationsabove.
- In thisway,thevaluesoftheparameters
at eachpointofthegridareextrapolated
to
a timeshortly
t +
At.
thereafter,
- Usingtheextrapolated
is thenrepeatedandvaluesatt + 2A are
data,thisprocedure
evaluated.Thisprocessis repeatedagainand again,as manytimesas necessaryto
extendtheprediction
to a desiredtimeinterval.
fora "forecast"
overa 6-hourperiod,Richardson
needed
Unfortunately,
extending
sixweeksofintensive
laborinordertocompletethecomputations!
Needlesstosay,this
was discouraging.
Richardson
ofhismethodmainlytothe
imputedtheimpracticability
dramatic
slownessofthecomputation.
Numericalinstability
BeforeWorldWarII, onlyone relevantimportant
advancetookplace concerning
thenumericalmethodsforsolvingpartialdifferential
equations.It was presentedin
a paperwritten
in 1928 in Gttingenby RichardCourantand his two youngassistantsKarl Friedrichsand Hans Lewy.8Theirinitialidea was to use a methodof
numericalapproximation
in orderto demonstrate
(the methodof finitedifferences)
theexistenceof solutionsof partialdifferential
thisidea, they
equations.Elaborating
- called numericalinstability
- whichwould later
discovereda new phenomenon
turnout to be exceptionally
in the developmentof numericalmethods.
important
Whenone replacesa differential
equationby a set of numericalequationshowever
close to the givenequation,solutionsof these approximating
equationsmay have
to
do
with
the
solutions
of
the
The
three
mathematicians
nothing
originalequation.9
showedthatthe solutionsof the finite-difference
equationsconvergedtowardsthe
solutionof thedifferential
if
the
equationonly
gridof thefinite-difference
equations
8 Courant,R.,
& Lewy, [1928].
Friedrichs,
9 Goldstine
[1972], p. 288.

400
A. Dahan Dalmedico
satisfiedthefollowingcondition(laterto be called the 'Courantcondition'):theratio

At/Ax of the timestepto the space stepis less thana numberC dependingonly
on thedifferential
theCourant
equationand theinitialconditions.If on thecontrary
conditionwas notmet,theyshowed,errorswouldincreasewithoutlimit.The paper
containeda rigorouscriterion
forstabilityin the cases of hyperbolicand parabolic
in one dependent,or two independent,
variequationswith constantcoefficients
ratherthan
ables. Later,von Neumanngeneralizedthislast conditionin a heuristic,
rigorous,fashion,and althoughhe lecturedon it severaltimeshe neverpublished
theresult.10
"
WorldWarII: a "neardiscontinuous
change inmeteorological
practice
information
and critDuringtheSecondWorldWar,forecastswerevitalmilitary
of weather
ical forthe planningof militaryoperations.The secrecyand reliability
such as, forexample,thechoice of the
could have strategic
importance,
predictions
II
a huge demandformeteoroloWorld
War
created
for
Overlord.
Operation
day
that
occurredduringthe war infor
and
hence
meteorologists.
Major changes
gy
cluded:11
- New subjectsandinterests
foreheights,
emerged;whenplanesflewatmuchgreater
winds.As a result
casterswereaskedaboutclouds,ice formation,
fogandhigh-level
toforecasters'
ofthenewabundanceofupper-air
data,physicsbecamemorerelevant
to increasetherangeof theforecaststo morethantwoor
work.However,attempts
threedayswererecognizedas hardlyrealistic.
- About six or seventhousandmeteorologists
were trainedin variouslaboratories
of the Air WeatherService reached 19,000
duringthe war. The total strength
while the Navy's AerologicalServiceemployed6,000 more.An urgentneed to
contributed
to
traina large numberof people veryrapidlymay have indirectly
more formalized,and also moretheomoremathematical,
makingmeteorology
retical.
- Observational
methodsandweatherdatarecordswerestandardized.
- The use ofpunched-card
in meteofdata-processing
machines,andtheautomation
orologyincreaseddramatically.
- Themeteorological
focusingon specific
forecasting
practicebecamea groupactivity
tasks.
- Important
was favoredoverthe
researchtopicschanged,and objectiveforecasting
subjectivemethods.
synopticians'
1 Lecturesof von Neumannat Los AlamosLaboratoriesin

February1947 and lettersfrom
Werner
Leuter(October,15, 1950,andNovember,
vonNeumanntothemathematician
10, 1950)
mentioned
by Aspray[1990], p. 286 f. notes27 and 28. See also von Neumann& Richtmyer
[1950],and Goldstine[1972].
11 Nebeker
[1995], pp. 111-132; Saltzman[1967]; Thompson[1983].

(1946-1963)
401
VonNeumann
's electronic
and meteorology
projects
In the 1940s,themathematician
Johnvon Neumanninitiateda significant
rearof
interests
andnumerical
rangement
concerning
hydrodynamics,
computers,
analysis.
Becauseofhisworkat Los Alamoson nuclearreactions,
he was convincedthathydrowas
of
crucial
to
and
andhe was one ofthe
dynamics
importance physics mathematics,
first
to realizethatitrequiredradicallynewdevelopments
in computational
resources.
In 1945,in a memorandum
sentto O.Veblen,vonNeumannwrote:
A further
whichhasbeenacquired
thisperiod[World
WarII] is that
experience
during
whichdo notprimafacieappeartobe hydrodynamical
necessitate
the
manyproblems
solution
ofhydrodynamical
orleadtocalculations
ofthehydrodynamical
questions
type.
Itshould
benoted
that
itis onlynatural
that
thisshould
beso sincehydrodynamical
problemsaretheprototype
foranything
non-linear
differential
involving
partial
equations,
thoseofthehyperbolic
ormixedtype,
particularly
hydrodynamics
beinga majorphysical guideinthisimportant
whichis clearly
toodifficult
atpresent
from
thepurely
field,
mathematical
pointofview.12
fornon-linearity.
While
Hydrodynamics
appearedtovonNeumannas theprototype
electronic
in
existed
his
he
declared
in
1945:
computers
merely
imagination, insightfully
branches
of
and
in
mathematics
are
a
need
of
in"Many
pure
applied
great
computing
struments
to breakthepresentstalematecreatedby thefailureofthepurelyanalytical
In 1946,a program
forthebuildingofan electronic
approachtonon-linear
problems."13
the
Electronic
was
launched
attheInstitute
forAdvanced
computer
Computer
Project
at
Princeton
under
his
direction.14
As
a
of
Study
large-scaleapplication theElectronic Project,vonNeumannchosenumericalmeteorology,
whichhejudgedstrategic.
He
succeededin convincing
theNavyto support
theproject.
On August29 and 30, 1946,vonNeumannorganizeda conference
in Princeton
in
ordertoacquaintthemeteorological
with
the
electronic
built
community
computer
being
attheInstitute
andto solicittheiradviceandsupport
in designing
researchstrategies.
A
consensusemerged
thatsixareasmerited
the
three
most
of
which
were:
study,
interesting
numerical
methodsforsolvingimportant
differential
equationsby meansof thecomandforecasting
methods.15
puter,
tropicalhurricane
theory,
bydirectnumerical
During
thefirst
twoyearsoftheMeteorology
set
after
von
Neumann's
a
conference,
Group up
seriesofexploratory
was
conducted.
The
main
one
concerned
the
investigations
system
of hydrodynamic
flowand,becauseit becameapparentthat
equationsof atmospheric
thebasic equationswereill-suitedto numericalas well as analyticalsolutions,their
fordirectintegration
was undertaken.
systematic
simplification
AlbertCahnandPhilipThompsonsimplified
themathematical
modelofatmospheric
flowso thatitretained
while
outnon-meimportant
meteorological
phenomena
filtering
and soundwaves.Thisfiltering
ones,suchas gravity
teorological
processhad already
beenimplicitly
when
their
In thefirst
practiced
bymeteorologists formulating theories.
12
26thMarch1945.VonNeumann,WorksVI, pp. 357-359.
Memorandum,
13 Works,
V,p. 2.
14 See
Aspray[1990],pp. 49-94 andGoldstine[1972],pp. 208-234.
15
Aspray[1990],p. 17.

402
A. Dahan Dalmedico
twoyearsoftheproject,Paul QueneyandThompsonintroduced
modelswhich
filtered
data.16But,as Asprayhas noticed,"JulesCharney
theycheckedagainstmeteorological
was thefirstto makethisprocedureexplicitand recommend
it as themostpromising
In 1947,Charneyused a metaphor
whichwas
approachfornumerical
meteorology".17
to becomefamous:"This leads us to thenextproblem,namely,how to filterout the
noise.Pardonme,butletus againthinkmetaphorically.
Theatmosphere
is a transmitter.
Thecomputing
machineis thereceiver Now thereare twowaysto eliminatenoise
in theoutput.The first
is to makesurethattheinputis freefromobjectionable
noises,
In fact,whenCharney
or thesecondis to employa filtering
systemin thereceiver."18
tookthelead of theMeteorological
Project,thismetaphor
expressedthebasic idea of
hismethodology
ofatmospheric
modeling.
II. Von Neumann'sand Charney'sprogram(1946-53)
of 1948,theMeteorological
WithJulesCharney'sarrivalinthesummer
Projecttook
theworkof thegroupbecamemuchmoreunified,
and
a new direction:
goal-oriented,
in twoannualreports.UnderCharney'sdirectorship,
resourcesand
was summarized
were focusedthrougha singleapproach:"to considearlier,parallelinvestigations
er a hierarchyof 'pilot problems'embodyingsuccessivelymore and more of the
aspectsof thegeneralforecastproblem."The
physical,numerical,and observational
of a methodforthenumerical
clear:
"the
of
the
was
development
project
objective
which
is
suitable
foruse in conjunction
the
of
meteorological
equations
integration
at the Institute
for
withthe electroniccomputingmachinenow underconstruction
AdvancedStudy."19
The methodology
of "theorypull"
Charneyand his colleaguesadopteda progressiveprocessthroughwhichalgoconsidwithsmall incremental
rithmscould be implemented
steps.The algorithms
16 The basic
equationssuchas theset of equationsRichardsonused can be said to describe
totypesofmotionthatarenotmeteorologitoo muchsincetheyadmitsolutionsthatcorrespond
wavemotionssuchas soundwaves,gravity
waves,
callysignificant,
especiallyhigher-frequency
slow inertialwaves etc. The Reportof Progressof theMeteorologyProjectfortheyear 1947
ifthoseequationsweresomehowinformed
matters
concluded:". . . itmightsimplify
considerably
oflarge-scale
behavior- i.e,thepropagation
incertainkindofatmospheric
thatwe areinterested
filter'to remove'noise' and
a 'mathematical
to constructing
disturbances.
This is tantamount
the
consistsin separating
The processof filtering
otherwiseunwantedregionsof thespectrum."
ones.
from
the
solutions
insignificant
significant
meteorologically
17
Aspray[1990],p. 139.
18 Letterto P.
Thompson,February,12, 1947, quotedby Aspray[1990], p. 300, note73;
is
mine.
emphasis
19
ProgressReportof the MeteorologyGroupat the Instituteof AdvancedStudy,July1,
1948 to June30, 1949, JCMI. quotedby Aspray[1990], p. 139.

ModelsinMeteorology
(1946-1963)
403
whichitselfwas continuously
eredalso dependedon computerfeasibility,
evolving.
modelwhose behaviorcould be computed;one comOne startedfroma simplified
of thismodelfitted
observedphenomena;thenone altered
paredhowthepredictions
themodel,generallyby addinga physicalfactorwhosepreviousexclusion,thesciobserveddistortions.
entiststhought,
was thecause of important
Charneycalled this
approach"theorypull".
a "two-dimensional
model20as thegroup's
In 1949,Charneysuggested
barotropic"
oflinearizedbarotropic
properties
objectofstudyandhe studiednumerical
equationsin
thenumerical
ofnonlinear
ordertoanticipate
integration
equations.Charneywas aware
thatRichardson's
doesnotsatisfy
Courant'sconditionso thatitsrepeatedapalgorithm
unstableandcouldnotgiveusefulresults.Buthe found
plicationwas computationally
thatby filtering
outmostatmospheric
motionshe made it mucheasierto satisfythe
Courantcondition,
whichinthiscase becomes:thetimeincrement
mustbe less thanthe
timerequired
fora waveimpulsetobe transmitted
fromonegridpointtoanother.
Based
of vorticity,
on theprincipleof conservation
Charney'smodelretainedonlyobserved
variableswhilefiltering
outwavestraveling
fasterthanwhatwas allowedbyCourant's
condition
wavesin particular).
(soundandgravity
Thompsonlaterexplained:
1947formulation,
laterknown
as thequasi-geostrophic
model[motion
is said
Charney's
tobequasi-geostrophic
is anapproximate
whenthere
balancebetween
thepressure-gradientforceandtheCoriolis
skirted
twomajordifficulties:
it
first,
force],
simultaneously
muchlessstringent
conditions
forcomputational
andsecond,
itdidnot
imposed
stability,
demand
thatthehorizontal
oraccelerations
as smalldifferences
becomputed
divergence
between
and
each
of
which
is
to
sizable
erterms,
large compensating
subject
percentage
rors.
Thesefeatures
aloneevaded
thetwofundamental
inthepractical
difficulties
inherent
ofRichardson's
method.21
application
Theintegration
wasdoneontheENIAC computer,
andnumerical
was studstability
ied accordingtothemethodsintroduced
in Courant,Friedrichs,
andLewy'spaper.
In 1950,Charney,
RagnarFjtoft,and von Neumannpublishedtheirfirstreport,
whichcontainedan analysisof theequationstheyused and a summary
of predictions
overa periodof 24 hours,forfourchosendaysin 1940. EarlierENIAC computations
and otherstudiesindicatedthattheatmosphere
behavedbarotropically
overlongtime
The
above
model
therefore
these
periods.
performed
satisfactorily
during
periods.Based
on vorticity
it
was
unable
to
take
into
account
the
inconservation,
however,
formation,
or
of
storms.
Further
were
made
to
the
model
tensification,dissipation
attempts
improve
inthisdirection.
20 As
explainedin note4, a modelis barotropicwhenpressureis consideredconstantand
baroclinicwhena verticalcomponent
is incorporated
whichtakesintoaccountitsvariation.
In
his 1949model,Charney
assumed(1) a uniform
(2) purelyhorizontal
densityfortheatmosphere,
motion,
(3) thecoincidenceofconstant
densityandconstant
(4) an
pressuresurfaces(barotropy),
balanceofthepressure
approximate
gradients
producedandtheCoriolisforce(quasi-geostrophy),
overtimeof thevorticity
of a fluidelementarounditsverticalaxis (vorticity
(5) theconstancy
ofwindat all levels,and(7) thethermodynamic
closureofthe
conservation),
(6) parallelstreams
See Aspray[1990],p. 301.
system.
21
Thompson[1983],p. 760.

404
A. Dahan Dalmedico
In 1951,another
ontheteam,NormanPhillips,introduced
a baroclinic
meteorologist
andhomogeneouslevelsofdifferent
model,formedbytwobarotropic,
incompressible,
as a fullythree-dimensional
model.
densities,whichprovidedalmostthesamefeatures
themodelpredicted
cloudinessandprecipitation
withreasonableaccuracy,
the
Although
werenotjudgedsatisfactory
becausethis
improvements
byvonNeumannandCharney,
therapiddevelopment
modelhadnotpredicted
oftheThanksgiving
weekend
two-layer
storm.Charneythenuseda three-level
modelwhichcorrelated
better
withpredictions.
In
weremadewiththree-,
five-andevenseven-layer,
1953,additionalbaroclinicforecasts
modelsto tryto takeintoaccountcertainkineticanddynamicaleffects
suchas, among
verticalvorticity
conversion.
others,thehorizontalOn August5, 1952, von Neumanncalled a meetingat Princeton,
whichgathered
membersof theWeatherBureau,theNavy,and theAirForce.His goal was to assess
In ordertoreach24-hour
theoperational
valueofnumerical
meteorological
prediction.
oftheUnitedStates,he advocatedtheuse ofa general
forecasts
overthewholeterritory
couldbe validoverperiodsupto36 hours.He argued
baroclinicmodelwhichhethought
thataltogether
thetotaltimerequiredforcollectingandpreparing
data,andcomputing,
andprinting
resultsshouldnotexceed12 hours.Less thanoneyearlaterthisaim
treating,
that"thetrendin theapplicationto shortwas achieved.The group'sreportstipulated
of thequasi-geostrophic
modelequationshad becomeso predictable
rangeprediction
thatthisphaseoftheworkhadceasedtobe - fortheProject- a matter
ofmajorscientific
as a member
interest."22
Henceforth,
(inparticular
keptbusybyhisotherresponsibilities
in the
of theAtomicEnergyCommission),JohnvonNeumannno longerparticipated
Meteorology
Group.
machineforphysicalmodelsinmeteorology?
Thecomputer:
an inductive
Afterhis firstimportant
successes,Charneywrotein 1952 that:"The philosophy
has been to construct
this
to
the
problem[ofnumericalprediction]
guiding approach
the
of each sucmodels
a hierarchy
ofincreasingcomplexity, features
ofatmospheric
of
the
of
the
an
cessive model beingdetermined
shortcomings
previous
by analysis
model."23
ledtoa seriesof"physicalmodels"oftheatmosphere,
The"theory
pull"methodology
and yettheywere
in thesensethattheywerebased on simplified
physicalhypotheses
behavior.Thompson'searlyfiltered
meantto copytheatmospheric
models,Charney's
two-dimensional
model,Phillips'baroclinicmodel,Charney'sthree-level
barotropic
model,additionalbaroclinicmodelsetc,belongedto thistypeofphysicalmodels;they
In thefirst
theweather.
weremainlydevelopedforpredicting
era,
stageofthecomputer
behavior
models
of
thetrendhad been to adjustoversimplified
atmospheric
physical
madepossible
As a giantcalculator,thecomputer
bymakingthemmorecomplicated.
ofthe
involvedequationsthatprovidedbetter
thetreatment
ofincreasingly
descriptions
22Meteorology
July1,1953toMarch31,1954(JuleCharProgress
Report,
Project,
Quaterly
MITArchives).
neyPapers,
23Meteorology
[1990],p. 302.
Report
Project
quotedinAspray

( 1946-1963)
405
atmosphereand thereforegave hope formoreprecise predictions.But meteorologywas

also highlyconstrained- and thisis stillthecase - by electroniccomputers.Theirperformance capacity,thesize of theirmemories,therestrictionson arithmeticoperations,the
selectionof numericalmethodsconvenientforelectroniccomputations,and theirlimited dependabilityconstitutedunavoidable factorsthattransformedmeteorologyinto an
engineeringscience.24
In a lectureaddressed to the National Academy of Sciences in 1955, Charneyanalyzed therole played by the computerin his discipline:
The adventof thelarge-scaleelectronic
has givena profound
stimulusto the
computer
scienceofmeteorology.
Forthefirst
a
mathematical
time,themeteorologist
possesses
apparatuscapableofdealingwiththelargenumberofparameters
requiredfordetermining
thestateoftheatmosphere
andofsolvingthenonlinear
itsmotion.
equationsgoverning
boththeforecaster
andtheinvestigator
wereforced
Earlier,forwantofsuchan apparatus,
to content
withsuchhighlyoversimplified
themselves
or modelsof theatdescriptions
remainedlargelya matterof extrapolation
and memory,
and
mospherethatforecasting
a fieldinwhichbeliefina theory
was oftenmorea matter
offaith
dynamical
meteorology
thanofexperience.
Needlessto say,thepracticing
couldignoretheresults
meteorologist
oftheory
withgoodconscience.25
He envisioned new and promisingroles for the comCharney went even further.
puter:
The radicalalteration
thatis takingplace in thisstateof affairsis due notmerelyto the
conabilityof themachineto solveknownequationswithknowninitialand boundary
ditionsbutevenmoreto itsabilityto serveas an inductive
device.The laws of motion
of theatmosphere,
especiallyas theyconcernthedynamicsof thelargestmotionsand
theirenergy-exchange
known.The machine,byreducing
processes,areveryimperfectly
themathematical
difficulties
a physicalargument
involvedin carrying
to itslogicalconin a fieldwhere
clusion,makespossiblethemakingandtestingof physicalhypotheses
controlled
is stillvisionary
andmodelexperiment
and so permits
a
difficult,
experiment
wideruse ofinductive
methods.26
Therefore,Charneysuggestedthatthe computercould be used as an inductivemachine which could test selected physical hypotheses.A few years later,this same idea
would lead to a verydifferent
kind of model in meteorology:the so-called "laboratory
models". These differedfromthe physical models in thattheydidn't copy atmospheric
behaviorin orderto predictbut instead generatedtheoreticalsituationsin orderto understandspecific atmosphericphenomena. We will studythispoint in the thirdpartof
thispaper.
E.N. Lorenzreconstructed,
in 1960, theentireprocedureused forobtainingthe
of
numerical
weather
fromthefundamental
laws governing
the
equations
prediction
He
looked
at
the
of
these
atmosphere.
system
equationsfrombotha physicalpointof
view(gaugingthesignificance
ofdifferent
andthatoftheirsimpliphysicalhypotheses
24 See Phillipsr19601.
25 Charney,
J.[19551in Asprayri9901,p. 152.
26
J.Jbidem,
Charney,
p. 153.

406
A. Dahan Dalmedico
thedependency
ofvariables,
fication)andfroma mathematical
pointofview(studying
theseparation
oftheequationsindifferent
etc).
groups,theroleofdifferential
operators,
He distinguished
thefollowingsteps:27
- Fora dryatmosphere,
thephysicallawsdetermine
thewell-known
setofsixequations
(Richardson'sequationscitedabove).
- The equationof verticalmotion- thethirdequationof Richardson'ssystem- is
firstdiscarded,and replacedby theso-called"hydrostatic
equation".Slightlymodof thehydrostatic
ifiedwiththehelpof thetimederivative
equation,thissystemis
calledtheprimitive
equation.
generally
- The new systemis thenexpressedin termsof twoindependent
variables:pressure
areexpressedin termsof vorticity
anddiand height.Horizontalwindcomponents
operator
appliedto themovement).
vergence(a differential
- Thislastequationis thendiscardedandreplacedbytheequationofbalanceobtained
fromthepreviousequation.Moreoutall termscontaining
a divergence
bydropping
to omitcertainadditionaltermsfromtheequation
over,it is oftenmoreconvenient
ofbalance,reducingitto thegeostrophic
equation.
- The equationof balanceand thegeostrophic
apequationare oftencalledfiltering
ofcertainwavesthatcan occurin
sincetheyeliminatetheoccurrence
proximations,
equations,butareoftenconsideredirrelevant.
systemsgovernedbytheprimitive
- Finallytheverticaldimensionscan be replacedby a smallnumberof layers.Each
function
dependingon timeand on thethreespatialdimensionsis thenreplacedby
oftimeandtwospatialdimensions.
severalfunctions
has nothingto do
It is important
to emphasizethatLorenz' logical reconstruction
of thesimplified
withthehistoricaldevelopment
equations(forexample,thefiltered
was thefirstissue
filtering
equationsappearhereas a last step,whereas,historically,
was determined
addressed).The historical
by interactions
amongnumerdevelopment
of computational
ical results,observedand measuredphysicalresults,theavailability
machines,and theavailabilityand rapidityof computingmethods.In fact,then,the
routethanmightbe
ofthepracticeofmodelingfolloweda verydifferent
development
assumedon thebasis oflogic.
III. The debate about models(fromthelate 1950s to 1963)
which
In thelate 1950s,itbecameobviousthattheso-called"filtered
equations",28
would
no
the
first
with
madenumericalweatherpredictions
longer
computers,
possible
of as higha qualityas was nowrequiredforlong-range
be able to providepredictions
totheprimitive
waseithertoreturn
thegeneralattitude
hydroConsequently,
forecasting.
orto extendfiltering
of
more
the
advent
computers,
powerful
dynamicequations,given
27 E.N. Lorenz[1960a], 366. We summarize
to givean
thebig linesofthisreconstruction
p.
intodetails)
betweenthedifferent
idea oftherelationships
entering
systemsofequations(without
theirnames.
andto introduce
28 As we
fora long
thefiltering
bymeteorologists
processhadbeenpracticed
alreadyexplained,
theexpression'filtered
time;after1947 andCharney'smetaphor,
equations'becamecanonical.

ModelsinMeteorology
(1946-1963)
407
thissecondwayled to so-calledbalanceequations.29
Bothwaysconcerned
principles;
But anotherattitude
whatwe havecalled above"physicalmodels"of theatmosphere.
raised
the
of
and
to
which
theuse
veryquestion predictability introduced
began emerge,
willbe elucidatedbelow.
of"laboratory
models."Thislastexpression
Statistics
andpredictability
In the 1950s,statistical
methodsprevailedin manyareas of science.In particular
toolsforunderstanding
theywereseenas appropriate
disorderly
phenomena.
Although
somewell-known
resultsofHenriPoincarandGeorgeD. Birkhoff
provedthattheop30statistical
wasnotso radicalas hadbeenthought,
positionbetweenorderanddisorder
methods
suchphenomena.
Thiswas
appearedtobe theonlyadequateonesforstudying
thecase notonlyin physics,mechanics(withtheergodicity
concept),fluidmechanics
elaboratedin 1941), astrophysics
(withKolmogorov'sstatistical
theoryof turbulence
of galaxiesby statistical
Scott,and Shana31studiedthedistribution
(whereNeymann,
ofepidemics(Bartlett's
butalso inbiologyandpopulation
methods),
work32),
dynamics
statistics
genetics.A seriesofannualsymposiaatBerkeleyon mathematical
providesa
ofthespectrum
ofresearch
fromverydifferent
fieldsinwhichmathematical
goodpicture
statistics
was theprimary
methodofinvestigation.
In meteorology,
twotrendsin factcoexisted:thefirstprivilegedstatistical
methdebatedtheattendant
meritsof
ods,thesecond,deterministic
dynamics.
Meteorologists
both.VonNeumann'sinitialapproachhadbeento use fastcomputers
to solvedynamical equationsofatmospheric
movement.
The raceofthecomputer
againsttimethathe
launched- to providepredictions
of theweather24 hoursin advancein less than24
hours- hadsucceeded.It seemedhisoptimism
foraccuratepredictive
analysishadpaid
off.In a certainsense,evenifhe was absolutelyconvincedthatlong-term
forecasting
wasa meteorological
themastery
andcontrolofinstabilities,
illusion,hisgoalremained
in initialdataandobservations.
anderrors
Thesecould- andshouldapproximations,
be overcomebycomputing
methods.Furthermore,
vonNeumannheldon to thedream
on generalmeteoroaccordingto whichtheknowledgeof theeffectsof a disturbance
wouldenablehumankind
tocontroltheweather.
Norbert
onthe
logicalfeatures
Wiener,
otherhand,was criticalof thisapproach.He was muchmoresensitiveto randomness
and believedit to be fundamentally
impossibleto gain thiskindof weathercontrol.
thatmodelsneededtotakeintoaccountfromtheoutsetthefactthat
Instead,he stressed
information
andknowledge
wouldbe alwaysincomplete.
Wienerhadalwaysbeenvery
29 Thisis
explainedinJ.G.Charney[1962].
Let us mention
thedifficulties
raisedbytheinterpretation
oftheFermi-Pasta-Ulam
numerical experiment.
allowedtheuse ofstatistical
butthemixingbetweenorder
methods,
Ergodicity
anddisorderrevealedbythisexperiment
resistedanymathematical
formulation.
At theInternationalCongressof Mathematicians
of Amsterdam
in 1954,Kolmogorov'sannouncement
of his
- laterknownas theKolmogorov-Arnold-Mser
resulton dynamicalsystems
(KAM) theorem
woulddrastically
the
Pasta
&
Ulam
in
change picture.Fermi,
[1947] Ulam [1974].
01
Proceedings[1955],vol III, p. 75.
32 Idem,vol
IV,p. 81.

408
A. Dahan Dalmedico
intermsoftimestatistical
fondofformulating
scientific
varying
processes.He
problems
theoryoftheBrownianmotion,consideredas a specialprototype
gave a mathematical
methodsforall problems
advocatedtheuse ofstatistical
oftheseprocesses.He strongly
theproblemof prediction
in
formeteorology,
thatmeantformulating
of prediction33;
andnotintermsofdeterministic
ofpastweather
termsofstatistical
dynamics.
properties
WienercitedShakeAt thethirdBerkeleySymposiumon mathematical
statistics,
to initialconditions:
spearein supportofsensitivity
forwanta nail,theshoewaslost,
forwanta shoe,thehorsewaslost,
waslost,
therider
forwanta horse,
waslost,
thebattle
forwanta rider,
waslost.34
thekingdom
forwanta battle,
to theexact sciencesand adopting
Wienersuggestedleavingexactcomputations
He
underlined
"theveryrealpossibility
science.
in
areas
of
methods
all
other
statistical
but
in
weather
the
of
small
details
oftheselfamplification
map," he didnotknowtheoractual
nor
their
anybetterthanvonNeumann.What
frequency
iginoftheseinstabilities
has
Heims
as
Steve
pointedout,was morea question
opposedthetwomathematicians,
ofworld(Weltanschaung).35
of
let
us
ofmetaphysics,
ofconviction,
or,
say, conception
in
their
works.
role
a
different
In particular,
timeanderrorplay
respective
had
for
severalyearsused
Edward
Lorenz
Like the majorityof meteorologists,
in
an
he
was
involved
methods
as
statistical
performed
by theStatistical
experiment
stain
that
at
MIT.
Lorenz
meteorology:
"philosophically,
thought
Forecasting
Project
because
than
like
is
more
tisticalprevision
meteorology dynamicalprediction,
synoptic
of whathappenedin thepastthanon physicalprinitis foundedmoreon observations
linearregression,
required
forecasting,
ciples."The mostcommonmethodin statistical
the
best
valuesforitsconstants.
estimate
in
to
order
mathematical
procedures
verylong
But linearregressionmethodsoftenfailedto yieldgood weatherforecasts;thishapavailable
fromcurrently
pennedeitherbecausetheweatherwas basicallyunpredictable
MIT
the
were
methods
linear
or
because
initialdata,
experiment,
inadequate.During
thenumerical
a seriesof"weathermaps"through
integration
meteorologists
generated
differential
ofa setofnonlinear
then,theyatequations(i.e. bydynamicalprediction),
On thisbasis,in 1960,
thesemapsbymeansoflinearregressions.
to reproduce
tempted
methodwas invalid.He presented
thatthestatistical
Lorenzhadreachedtheconviction
his resultsduringa Symposiumheld in Tokyo,whichbecamea turning
pointforthe
us36.
for
instructive
and
is
community,
particularly
ofWiener's
methodscoulddrawon a theorem
Thosewhofavoredlinearregression
in
sense
thatit
the
was
if
that
a
'deterministic',
stationary
system
statistically
showing
forsome
and
of
its
own
from
the
couldbe predicted
present pastby
knowledge
exactly
33
he presented
ofprediction;
theory
DuringWorldWarII, Wienerworkedalso on a statistical
in 1950 at Harvard.
itat theInternational
CongressofMathematicians
34 Wiener[1956], 248.
p.
35 see Heims,[19801pp. 116-162.
36 Lorenz[1960b].

ModelsinMeteorology
(1946-1963)
409
andpastbysomelinear
mula,thenitcouldalsobe predicted
exactlyfromitsownpresent
of pastdata and many
formula.The linearformulamightinvolvean infinite
quantity
termsmight
be required
fora goodapproximation.
Fromthemeteorologists'
standpoint,
theimportant
therewas a nearlyperfect
linearformula
questionwas whether
involving
datasolelyfroma recentpast.In theStatistical
Forecasting
ProjectatMIT,thisquestion
was tackledbyinvestigating,
thepredictive
methods,
usinglinearregression
qualityofa
numerical
solutionpreviously
obtainedfroma setofdeterministic
equations.Sincethe
wereultimately
intheweather,
interested
investigators
theychose,as theirdeterministic
weatherprediction.
equations,one ofthesimplestmodelsusedin numerical
Lorenzand his colleaguestookthegeostrophic
formof thetwo-layer
baroclinic
model(Charney'smodel).37Theyappendedlinearterms[representing
friction
heating,
atthesurfaceseparating
theequationsso thatthemodel
layers,etc].Theythensimplified
wasreducedtooneofthemoreconventional
models.Themachineusedbythe
two-layer
Projectwas a smallelectronic
computer
(RoyalMcBee) thatcould solve 12 equations
byan iterative
processattherateofone timestepevery10 seconds.Retainingonlythe
thetime-step
was a six-hourincrement
largescale features,
duringwhichthesolution
wascomputationally
stable.Lorenzandhiscolleaguesgenerated
nearlysixyearsofdata
in 24 hoursofmachinetime.The resultsshowedthatone-daypredictions
werenearly
terrible.
Lorenzestiperfect,
two-daypredictions
acceptable,and four-day
predictions
matedthat,appliedto therealatmosphere,
thislinearregression
wouldcollapsein half
a day.Theyobservedlargefluctuations
withirregularities
and randomfeaturesin the
graph.
method
Hence,thissimplemodelof 12 equationsusedto testthelinearregression
exhibiteda nonperiodic
solutionroughlymimicking
theevolutionof theatmosphere.
As a consequenceofhis work,Lorenzwas convincedoftheexistenceofdeterministic
resembled
thatoftheatmosphere,
but
systems
governed
byequationswhosenonlinearity
whichwerenotperfectly
norevenapproximately
predictable
bysimplelinearformulae.
Thisfailurewas nota fatalblowto statistical
methods:Lorenzmerelyconcludedthat
better
resultsthanthoseobtainedbypurelystatistical
linearpredictions
wouldeventuallyhaveto be reachedby somenonlinearstatistical
proceduresor by themethodsof
weather
dynamical
prediction.
TheTokyosymposium:
a turning
point
Letus nowfocusontheveryrichdiscussionswhichtookplace duringthefinalpanel
sessionoftheTokyosymposium.
methods
Theyconcerned
mainlytwoissues,statistical
andsensitivity
ofpredictions
to variations
in initaldata.38
methodsevolved.In a sense,Lorenz'sworkwas
First,thedebateaboutstatistical
a setbackforstatistical
methods.The hope forlong-range
on thebasis of
predictions
restedon thepossibility
thatsomeaspectsoftheprocessremained
physicalprinciples
andthattheseaspectsshouldbe statistical
Thisseemedanalogous
predictable
properties.
37 Lorenz
[1960a].
38 The discussion
appearedin theProceedings[1962],pp. 639-655.

410
A. Dahan Dalmedico
to statistical
mechanics(whichled to thelaws of thermodynamics
withouta detailed
wouldbe analoknowledgeoftheforcesbetweenmolecules).In thiscase, climatology
stateofthesystemin statistical
mechanics.39
Butforlong-range
goustotheequilibrium
in climatology,
weatherpredictions,
one was notinterested
butrather,
as ArntEliassen
of Oslo) pointedout,in deviationsfromgeneralclimaticpatterns.
There,
(University
didnotwork.
statistics
apparently
comebackofstatistics
was in store.Eliassen
However,in anotherway,a spectacular
fieldofresearchthepossibility
mentioned
as a particularly
ofcomputing
the
interesting
ofan atmosphere,
climatology
thereby
openingup theclimatologists'
generalprogram
he outlinedthisprogram
whichwas mainlydevelopedafterthe1980s.Remarkably,
as a
distribution
verypuremathematical
problem:"givena planetwithspecifiedproperties,
of oceans and continents,
thedistribution
elevations,insolationsand so on; determine
of climate."It shouldstressedthatEliassenheresuggestednotonlynew methodsof
mathematical
modeling,butalso a newphilosophyof modeling,expressingan ideal
theroleofmathematical
aboutwhatsciencecouldsupply.Accordingtothisconception,
added:
modelingwas considerably
expanded.Eliassenfurther
weather
inprinciple
bepossible,
from
foreThisshould
forecasting
techniques
bymaking
Thismaybecomeofimportance
statistics.
fora longperiodoftimeandmaking
casting
where
thesurface
theclimate
ofprevious
features
of
fordetermining
geological
periods
from
whattheyarenow,anditmayalsobe ofimportance
for
theearthweredifferent,
external
andinternal
causedbyvarious
changesofthe
determining
changesinclimate
within
theatmosphere
oroftheearth's
surface
orofthesolarradiation.
system,
changes
ofourplanet,
theproperties
there
Sincemankind
is allthetimechanging
are,ofcourse,
ofclimate,
andoneis eventhinking
ofproducing
changes
already
artificially
produced
weshallbeabletopredict
. Itisvitally
that
theeffects
suchchanges
important
deliberately
oftheplanet.40
wetrychangetheproperties
before
a secondsubjectofdebateat theTokyosymposium,
GeorgePlatzmann
Triggering
oftheprediction
to a slight
askedLorenzthereasonwhyhe assumedthatthesensitivity
withthesmallnumberofparameters
ininitialdatawas in somewayconnected
variation
answer
in themodel.Lorenzansweredthathe was unableto providea reallysatisfying
we mayperceivethe
In readingtheproceedings,
offeeling".41
andthatitwas a "matter
was therea hunchofan unpredictability
principlein the
emergenceofgreatperplexity:
at
the
considered
thequestion
All
meeting
present
forecasting
problem? meteorologists
as "philosophinatureto weatherprediction
of a fundamental
of possiblelimitations
these
caV' Although
theytriedfocusingdebatesonthepracticalaspectsoftheproblem,
39
inthe
In climatology,
one is mainlyinterested
is thestudyofclimate-systems.
Climatology
muchlonger
consideredin statistical
of atmosphere
terms,andin time-scales
generalcirculation
thanin meteorology.
HU
Ibidem, p. 646.
41 We knowthatLorenzworkedhardto arriveat thisresult:itis notat all bypurechance,as
Manypopular
manypopularbooksandpaperswouldhaveit,thathe discoveredchaoticbehavior.
accountsgreatlyexaggerate,
accordingto me, an anecdoteaccordingto which,Lorenzlefthis
onthecomputer
togeta cupofcoffeeandfoundchaoticsolutionsflashing
screen,when
computer
he returned.

ModelsinMeteorology
(1946-1963)
411
Eliassenbrought
deeperquestionsconstantly
reemerged.
up theissue ofbaroclinicand
instabilities
andtheirimportance.
He noticedthattheseobstaclesto numerbarotropic
ical predictability
weredifficult
to assess.It was impossibleto computetheeffectof a
disturbance
on theatmosphere
sincethislatterwas alwaysdisturbed
noises.
byexternal
Eliassendeclared:"The significance
ofthisinstability
is notcleartome becausewe do
notsee intheatmosphere,
disturbances
developingfroma verysmallinitialdisturbance
onthestraight
see a fullydisturbed
butwerather
fieldall thetimeandnon-linear
current,
interactions
betweenvariouscomponents."42
fromhis 12-equation
model,LoStarting
renzhadalreadytriedtoinvestigate
thisissue:among40 different
"errors"
appliedtohis
with40 smalldeviationsfrom
aperiodicsolution- meaningthatheranthecomputation
- 39 veryrapidlydiverged.
theinitialconditions
Ifthismodelin somesenserepresented
theatmosphere,
woulddefinitively
be an Utopianillusion.
long-term
predictability
Thecrucialquestionwastoassesstowhatextentthemodelrepresented
atmospheric
evolution."Lorenz-likesystems",
as Charneythennicknamedthem,had veryfewdimensionsandtherefore
couldonlyveryroughly
copyreality.
Manypeoplehopedthatby
one wouldgetstability
in thesystemand
addinga largenumberofdegreesoffreedom,
hencelong-term
At thetime,Charneywas stillveryoptimistic43
: "there
predictability.
is no reasonwhynumerical
methodsshouldnotbe capableofpredicting
thelifecycle
ofa singlesystem,"
he declared,itis ourmodelswhichhave"fataldefects".
Withtheaimofovercoming
thesedefects,
Charneylistedthreesetsofproblems:
1) As to thepurelymathematical
computing
techniques:theproblemthatthetimeintervalsweremuchtoosmallforthetimescale ofthephenomena.
Thisproblemwas
linkedwiththeeconomyofmachinecomputation,
butCharneyintuited
thatitwould
remainwithmeteorologists
forall timessinceproblemswouldgrowas fast
probably
as thepowerof machines- an evolutionwhichin facthappenedlater.So Charney
tolookforeconomicalintegration
methodswhichwoulduse muchlonger
suggested
timeintervals.44
2) As to thephysicalmodelsadoptedand theirmathematical
expression:geostrophic
equations,theso-called"filtering
equations,"or thebalanceequations,and others:
thedifferent
kindsofphysicalsimplifying
hypotheses.
ofthecomputer
as a toolofanalysis
3) As toproblems
havingtodo withtheapplication
in thesolutionofphysicalproblems,
forinstancetyphoons:
Whatwerethephysical
mechanisms
oftheprocess,andwhatcausedthegrowth
ofa small-amplitude
depressionintoa typhoon?
that,insteadoffeedingobserved
Charneyoncemoresuggested
intothemachine,computers
couldbe usedto study
atmospheric
phenomena
directly
simpleranalogies,or component
parts,ofthephenomena
just as one did in a laboindividualphysicalfactorsinvolvedin complicatedatmospheric
ratory
by studying
motions.Likewise,machinesandlaboratory
modelswouldhaveto be combined.
42
Ibidem,p. 645.
40 Proceedings,
[19621,p. 648.
44
themarching
Technicallyspeaking,thismeansconverting
problemin theso-called'jury
inCourant-Friedrichs-Levy's
sense,andis relatedtoCourant'scondition
problem'inRichardson's
[1962],p. 640.
theory.
Proceedings,

412
A. Dahan Dalmedico
use forthispurpose:are thetruncaFinally,Charneyraisedtheissue of computer

forfailures?Always,thesame
tionerrorsand themethodsofcomputation
responsible
difficulties
to computers
crucialquestionemerged:shouldone imputeprediction
and
to theatmosphere
itself?
to models,or,morefundamentally,
methods,
computation
to find.Meteorologists
Obviously,theanswerto thesequestionswas verydifficult
heldon to theirold dream;theywerescarcelyreadyto giveup theirambitions.
Laboratorymodelsforunderstanding
listedand underlined
Lorenz'sprogramfocusedpreciselyon thethirddifficulty
by
In thesame yearas the
models.
of
and
on
his
Charney,
suggestion testinglaboratory
TokyoSymposium,he publisheda paperin whichhe explainedthattheuse of dytheir
ofatmospheric
ourunderstanding
namicequationsto further
phenomena,
justified
to
weather
were
the
where
expected yieldacceptable
beyond point
they
simplification
Thereweretwokindsof suchsimplifications.
First,one mightomitor
predictions.45
or
altered
some
one
certain
terms;by doingso,
physicalprocesses
neglected
modify
A secondtypeofsimplification
was demanded
believedto be ofsecondaryimportance.
differential
certain
of
the
equationsexactly.Thus,by
partial
by
impossibility solving
each partialdifferential
one converted
methodsor otherwise,
finite-difference
equation
ofthem
ofordinary
differential
number
intoa specificfinite
equations(severalhundreds
of
the
initial
condiis typicalin short-range
Also,simplifications
dynamicforecasting).
in
use.
But
Lorenz
insisted
of
observations
the
because
of
were
tions
system
necessary
of theatmosphere,
we
ourunderstanding
is confinedto furthering
that"if ourinterest
where
to
the
initial
conditions
and
the
good predictions
point
maysimplify equations
variableswhichLorenzretainedthus
The independent
can no longerbe expected."46
ofthelargestscale.
to features
corresponded
let us presenthow Lorenzarrivesat the so-called"minimum
As an illustration,
equations".
hydrodynamic
theatmosphere
thedynamicequationsgoverning
Firsthe simplified
by reducing
familiar
to
the
them
vorticity
equation
- V2 = -kV x V(V2VO ,
dt
(1)
horizontalflow,V is a
fortwo-dimensional
wheret is time, is a streamfunction
x is
V2 = V V is thehorizontal
differential
horizontal
Laplacianoperator,
operator,
theinternal
productofvectorsandA:is a unitverticalvector.Equation(1) is equivalent
tothebarotropic
vorticity
equation,whichalso governsthemotionofa generaltwo-diof
nonviscousfluid;it statesthatthevorticity
mensionalhomogeneousincompressible
each materialparceloffluidis conserved.
He appliedEq. (1) to flowin a planeregion,in which is doublyperiodicat all
time,i.e.
45 Lorenz,E.N. [1960c],pp. 243-245.
46 Ibidem, 245.
p.

ModelsinMeteorology
(1946-1963)
413
t) = (x, y, t) ,
(x + In IK y + 27T/Z,
(2)
wherethex and y axes pointeastwardand northward,

and k and / are
respectively,
constants.
In
this
he
distorted
the
of
the
specified
way
geometry
sphericalearth,buthe
theimportant
the
retained
that
effective
area
is
finite
but
unbounded.He also
property
variations
of theCoriolisparameter,
neglectedthehorizontal
althoughEq. (1) is still
consistent
witha constant
Coriolisparameter.
of(1), andaftersomefurther
substitutions
TakingtheFouriertransform
introducing
thetermsK, H, and M, Lorenzfoundtheequations
= ^K-HxM
h. h ChCm-h
-r -2L
H
dCM
(3)
whichis actuallytheinfinite
setof ordinary
differential
equationswhichhe soughtto
determine.
The coefficients
are
the
variables;as Lorenzexplains,a furCm
dependent
thersimplification
is theomissionof reference
to all buta finitenumberof variables
toa specifiedsetofvaluesofm andn. Ifthesevaluesaresmall,only
Cmcorresponding
features
are retained.The summation
in (3) becomesa finitesum,butthe
large-scale
are
otherwise
unaltered.
equations
as describing
a nonlinear
interaction
betweenthecomEquation(3) maybe regarded
whose
coefficents
are
and
to
alter
a
third
coefficient
Ch
Cm-h,
Cm-Lorenz
ponents
wantedto seekthemaximum
of
still
which
describes
this
simplification(3)
process.He
noticed(butwe don'tgiveherehisproof)thatclearlyat leastthreetermswithdifferent
eigenvaluesmustbe retained.
Finally,thegoverning
equations,obtainedeitherfrom(3), (ordirectly
bysomesubstitutions
into(1)), arewritten
in theform:
dF
'
(5)
1'
(6)
fi
-n='fi-iwrAG>
dG
1/1
-2{r2-)UAF>
of FG, AG andAF are

A, F,G appearin theFourier'sseriesof andthecoefficients
actuallydetermined
bytheratiok/l. The meankineticenergyandthemeansquareof
thevorticity,
(f + f + ^)'
(7)
and
V=
^JA2
+ F2 +
2G2) ;
arereadilyseento be conservedunderEqs. (4)-(6).

(8)
414
A. Dahan Dalmedico
containtheminimum
numberof
Accordingto Lorenz,theseequationspresumably
degreesof freedom
requiredto picturenonlinear
barotropic
phenomena.Lorenzcalled
themthe"minimum
hydrodynamic
equations",orsimplytheminimum
equations.47
Lorenzwasawarethat,whenpartialdifferential
equationswerenumerically
integratin space andtime,thephenomenon
ed bymeansoffinitedifferences
of computational
thetimeinterval
At shouldnot
instability
mightarise.In orderto avoidsuchinstability,
to be too largecomparedwiththespace intervalsAx and Ay: whenusingorthogonal
conditionforcomputational
thecorresponding
was thatA should
functions,
stability
of theoscillationperiodofthemostrapidlyoscillatingvarinotbe too largea fraction
able.The simplified
equationswererealisticenoughtoprovidea qualitative
description
ofsomeoftheimportant
physicalphenomenain theatmosphere;
theyevenled to plausiblehypotheses
concerning
phenomenaas yetnotexplained.AccordingtoLorenz,the
whichone was permitted
to use dependedupontheparticular
degreeof simplification,
phenomenaone wishedto investigate.
ofthesystemof
Lorenzdevelopeddifferent
simplification"
examplesof"maximum
thefollowing
problems:
equationsin orderto investigate
- The behaviorofa jet underbarotropic
floworitssplitting
intotwostreams.
- Simplebaroclinicflow.In thiscase, he said,one ofthetwo-layer
numerical
predictionmodelscouldbe usedinsteadofthebarotropic
vorticity
equation.The maximum
wouldthenretainthreedegreesof freedomfortheflowin
allowablesimplification
theinstability
variables.Withsucha system,
eachlayer,hencea totalofsixdependent
other
be
studied.
ofzonalbaroclinicflowcould,among
phenomena,
- Forcedbaroclinicflowsuchas thatwhichcharacterized
thegeneralcirculation
ofthe
atmosphere.
Lorenz
All these simplifications
mightappear as rathercrude approximations,
lead
of
the
and
to
our
but
should
claimed, they
plausiclarify understanding phenomena
studiesand
whichmightthenbe testedbymeansofcarefulobservational
ble hypotheses
certaintermsin
morerefinedsystemsof dynamicequations.By judiciouslyomitting
withreality,
one
theresultoftheprediction
thedynamicalequationsandbycomparing
decidewhichtermswereimporcouldestimatethecostoftheseomissionsandthereby
ofwhatis,in
tantandwhichwerenot.We haveherean explicitandcompletedescription
wouldbe
A
this
few
of
Lorenz's mind,theright
later,
years
conception
practice modeling.
simulations.
with
of
canonical
as
the
considered
computer
conception modeling
largely
On
orimmediately.
thatpracticeofmodelingdidn'temergespontaneously
Remarkably,
itwas objectofmuchtrialanderrorandmanydiscussions.
thecontrary,
suchas N.A. Phillips(also fromMIT) went
At thesametime,othermeteorologists
the
on withtheirSisypheanwork.48Also publishedin 1960,Phillips'spaperillustrated
over
methodsin use at thetime.He discussedtheadvantagesof primitive
equations
of theverticalcoordinate;he also
model wherewindis independent
thegeostrophic
a methodforreducinginitialnoise. Phillips'sand thewholecommunity's
mentioned
of thequality
forinstance,to theimprovement
werenotin vain,contributing,
efforts
47 Lorenz[1960c], 247.
p.
48
Phillips,[I960].

ModelsinMeteorology
(1946-1963)
415
ofnumerical
The twoapproacheswhichmaybe associatedwithPhillips's
integration.
andLorenz'snamesrespectivly,
thatofphysicalmodelsandthatoflaboratory
models,
proveduseful.
In 1962,Charneygave a verygood summary
of thealternative:
whenfacedwith
will"chooseeithera precisemodelinordertopredictor
nonlinear
scientists
problems,
an extreme
inordertounderstand"
.^ In hispaper,Charney
himself
chose
simplification
thesecondalternative:
he modeledwhirlwinds
withpoints,likeFermi,Pasta,andUlam
haddoneat Los Alamosin 1947 whentheymodeleda ropeby 64 punctualmasses.50
hissystem
severalwhirlwinds
arounda circleand
Verysimpleandnonlinear,
reproduced
showedtheirextreme
ButCharneyattributed
theinstability
ofthemodelto
instability.
errorswhichwouldplaytheroleofa disruptive
force.Charneystill
repeatedtruncation
thata better
wouldovercomethatdifficulty.
Thiswas veryfarfrom
thought
computation
thepointofviewofLorenzwhohadintuited
thata smallerrorcouldbe self-amplified
at one's disposal.
bythesystemevenifonehad exactcomputations
chaos
Encountering
unConnecticut,
BarrySaltzman,fromtheTravelersWeatherCenterat Hartford,
derstoodtheimportance
of Lorenz'sideas. Insteadof global atmospheric
circulation,
Saltzmanstudiedtheconvectivemotionof a fluidheatedfrombelow,a veryfrequent
whichforexamplemaylocallyoccuroverwarmgrounds.
For
atmospheric
phenomenon
7 variables.51
He thenmadetwo
this,he developedin 1961 a simplemodelinvolving
observations
whichweretomakehismodelfamous.First,he noticedthatin simulations
4 ofthe7 variablesquicklybecameverysmall,and solutionsflattened
on the3 others.
hepointedoutonethatwas aperiodic.After
Second,asidefromregularsolutions,
having
paida visitto Saltzman,Lorenzbecameconvincedthatthese3 variableswerekeeping
each othergoingand thata systeminvolvingonly3 variablesmightwell exhibitthe
samebehavior.
Let us enterin details.Rayleigh[1916] studiedtheflowoccurring
in a layeroffluid ofuniform
when
the
difference
between
the
H,
depth
temperature
upperand lower
surfaces
is maintained
at a constantvalue AT. Such a systempossessesa steady-state
solutionin whichthereis no motion,and thetemperature
varieslinearlywithdepth.
If thissolutionis unstable,convectionshoulddevelop.In thecase whereall motions
areparallelto thex-z plane,andno variations
in thedirection
of they-axisoccur,the
in
Saltzman
the
form:52
governing
equationshadbeenwritten
by
following
dt
dx
d(x,z)
dt
d(x,z)
H dx
49
[1962b],p. 289.
Charney,
50 Fermi,Pasta& Ulam
[1947],in Ulam [1974].
51 Saltzman
[1962].
52
Lorenz,[1963],p. 135. We referhereto LorenzquotingSaltzman.

A. Dahan Dalmedico
416
forthetwo-dimensional
Here is a streamfunction
motion,6 is thedeviationof the
andtheconstants
fromthatoccuringin thestateof no convection,
g, a, v
temperature
thecoefficient
ofgravity,
ofthermal
theacceleration
andk denote,respectively,
expanTheproblemis mosttractable
andthethermal
sion,thekinematic
conductivity.
viscosity,
whenboththeupperand lowerboundariesare takento be free,in whichcase and
V2'/vanishat bothboundaries.
Rayleigh[1916] hadfoundthatfieldsofmotionoftheform
= 0 sm(7TaH-lx) sin(7rH'lz) ,
(11)
6 = 00cos(naH-x)sm(7tH-]z)
(12)
woulddevelopifthequantity
,
Ra =gaH3ATv'lk-]
(13)
exceededa criticalvalue
nowcalledtheRayleighnumber,
Rc = 7i4a-2(l+a2)3
(14)
valueof Ra, namely27 n4/4,occurswhena2 = '.

The minimum
differential
Saltzman[1962] deriveda set of ordinary
equationsby expanding
and
of t aloneforcoefficents,
and6 in doubleFourierseriesin x andz, withfunctions
sides of theretheseseriesinto(9) and (10). He arrangedtheright-hand
substituting
sultingequationsin doubleFourierseriesform,byreplacingproductsoftrigonometric
andthenadequatedcoefficients
functions
ofx (orz) bysumsoftrigonometric
functions,
infinite
ofx andz. He thenreducedtheresulting
ofsimilarfunctions
systemto a finite
setoffunctions
reference
toall buta specifiedfinite
off,ina manner
systembyomitting
Saltzmanthenobtainedtimedependent
alreadyproposedbyEdwardLorenzhimself.53
variIn certaincases all butthreeofthedependent
solutionsbynumericalintegration.
tendedtozero,andthesethreevariablesunderwent
ableseventually
apparently
irregular,
fluctuations.
nonperiodic
Lorenz [1963] noticesthatthesesame solutionswouldhave been obtainedif the
he
to includea totalofthreeterms.Accordingly,
serieshad at thestartbeentruncated
sets
a{'+a2ylk-it^Xy2n{naH-ix)ri{7zH-iz)
7tR~lRaAT~l0 = Y^/lcos{naH~l x) sin(jr7/"1z) - Z sin(2jrH~x z)
(15)
(16)
oftimealone.
whereX, Y, and Z arefunctions
and (16) into(9) and (10), and omitting
trigono(15)
expressions
By substituting
metrictermsotherthanthoseoccuringin (15) and(16), Lorenzobtainedtheequations:
Xm=orX + oY ,
53Lorenz[1960c],pp.243-254.

(17)
(1946-1963)
y = XZ + yX-Y
Z* = XY -bZ
,
.
417
(18)
(19)
withrespecttothedimensionless
timer = tt2H~2(1 -f
Herea dotdenotesa derivative
=
=
r
R~l Ro, and ?= 4(1 + a2)~l .
k~lv is thePrandtlnumber,
a2)kt, whilea
Equations(17), (18), and (19) are theconvectionequationswhose solutionsLorenz
studied.
In theseequationsX is proportional
totheintensity
oftheconvective
motion,while
Y is proportional
difference
to thetemperature
betweentheascendingand descending
currents,
equal signsof X and Y denotingthatwarmfluidis risingand cold fluidis
The variableZ is proportional
to thedeviationof theverticaltemperature
descending.
a positivevalueindicating
fromlinearity,
thatthestrongest
occurnear
profile
gradients
theboundaries.
LorenzemphasizesthatEqs. (17)- (19) maygiverealisticresultswhentheRayleigh
numberis slightly
theirsolutions
but,in viewof theextremetruncation,
supercritical,
cannotbe expectedto resemblethoseof Salzman'sequations(9) and (10) whenstrong
convection
occurs.Lorenzcoded thissystemof 3 equationsinvolving3 variablesfor
machinecomputing.
Justas Saltzmanhaddiscoveredwithhismodel,Lorenzobserved
thelackofperiodicity
forsomesolutions.54
Beforehewashiredas a meteorologist
WorldWarII, Lorenzhadbeenpassionduring
ateaboutmathematics
andhadevencontemplated
a careerinthisfield.WithSaltzman's
hewasallowedtogo backtohisfirst
love.In ordertointerpret
hisresults,
Lorenz
system,
doveintoPoincar'sandBirkhoff's
worksand wrotea first
versionof an articleabout
whichnothing
is knowntoday.An unknown
referee
directed
him,notsurunfortunately
to SolomonLefschetz'sbooksand,luckilyforhim,to therecenttranslation
prisingly,
ofNiemytskii
and Stepanov'sbookwhichcoveredthequalitative
theoryofdynamical
systemsdevelopedby AlexandrAndronov'sSovietschool.55There,Lorenzrealized,
was a setof elementary
theoretical
toolsfortheanalysisof his results.In his seminal
paperpublishedin 1963,Lorenzproved,aftera briefintroduction
linkinghisproblem
tometeorology,
thatalmostall solutionstohissystemof3 equations(whichhe studied
in phasespace) wereunstable.56
If periodicsolutions,
of whichtherewas a countable
were
then
solutions
couldnotexist.In hissystem,
infinity, unstable, quasiperiodic
irregularunstabletrajectories
werethegeneralcase. Hencea fundamental
problememerged:
ifnonperiodic
solutionswereunstable,
twoneighboring
woulddivergevery
trajectories
the
"attract
which
toLorenzwastheportion
ofphase
Otherwise,
or",
quickly.
according
ina three-dimensional
tended,wouldhavetobe confined
bowl;
spacetowhichsolutions
twotrajectories
to comeback veryclose to one another.
withthereforcing
Together
thattwosolutionscannotintersect,
theseconstraints
led Lorenzto imaginea
quirement
structure
for
his
attractor:
an
foldedsurface,the"butterfly"
that
veryspecial
infinitely
54 See Lorenz
[1993],pp. 136-160.
Aboutthedevelopment
ofdynamicalsystemsin the1950sand 1960sandthediffusion
of
Sovietresultssee Dahan Dalmedico[1994] and [1997].
56 Lorenz
[1963]pp. 130-141.

418
A. Dahan Dalmedico
intermsofa two-dimensional
theattractor
hasnowbecomeveryfamiliar.
Representing
LorenzusedPoincar'sfirst-return
better.
mapin orderto studyhisattractor
projection,
The conclusionsdrawnby Lorenzin his paperweretwofold:(1) Froma theoretical standpoint,
he provedthatverycomplicated
behaviorscouldarisefromverysimple
- simplicity
in contradiction
couldgeneratecomplexity,
to theold,well-estabsystems
thatsimplecauses shouldgiveriseto simpleeffects.
And(2) he also
lishedconviction
exhibited
theproperty
of sensitivity
to initialconditionsandthusopeneda windowon
level (providedhis modelhad
of turbulence.
At themeteorological
theunderstanding
weredoomed.
to do withtheatmosphere),
hopesforlong-range
predictions
anything
The old debateaboutwhethera largernumberof degreesof freedomwouldstabilize
all thatremainedforCharneyto
thesystem,
ornot,was putto rest.In thisperspective,
workon was to trydiscovering
thelimitsforeffective
prediction.
The aftermath
of Lorenz'sworkgoes beyondthescope of thispaper;I shallnot
oftheseresults;howmathematicians
deal withthemathematical
apprehension
grasped
butalso physicists,
communities
mathematicians,
them,howdifferent
(meteorologists,
andpopulation
biologists)cametomeeteachotheraround
specialistsoffluidmechanics,
a fewsimilarissues.Letmesimplymention
that,publishedintheJournalofAtmospheruntil1972.At least
ic Sciences,Lorenz'spaperremainedunnoticed
bymathematicians
themathematical
attention
threetimes,Lorenz'sresultsfailedto attract
community's
askedto evaluateLorenz'spaperwas
whentheymighthave.57First,one ofthereferees
none otherthanStan Ulam. HavingcarefullystudiedwithSteinat Los Alamos,the
and havingbeen involvedin thefamousPasta-Fermiof nonlinearfunctions
iteration
he shouldhavebeen,one maythink,sensitiveto theseissues.But,
Ulam experiment,
Ulamaround
thejob toa colleague.Secondly,meeting
toobusyatthetime,he entrusted
thisagainwas
hisresearchwithout
1965,Lorenzmentioned
showinghimhisattractor;
attention.
notenoughto catchthemathematician's
Finally,at a meetingon "Statistiin 197158,Ruellegave a shorttalkabouta mathematical
cal MethodsandTurbulence"
fortheonsetof turbulence
problem)andbriefly
(regardedas a bifurcation
explanation
in the
theory.
Participating
expoundedwhatbecameknownlateras his strangeattractor
was theonlyone,apartfromRuelle
Lorenzremarkably
samesessionatthissymposium,
methodsandwas rather
more
whoshunnedstochastic
himself,
processesand statistical
A modest,shy
in theprediction
of whathe called "models"ofturbulence.59
interested
fromRuelle's,Lorenzpreferred
different
manwhobelongedto a scientific
community
thathis earlierworkof
to waituntilhe couldcheckhis ownresultsbeforementioning
to whathe hadjustheardfromthemathematical
1963perfectly
physicist.
corresponded
attention
tohiswork.But
was missedtocall otherscientists'
Oncemore,an opportunity
thistime,he wouldnothaveto waitforlongbeforefamewouldcatchup withhim.
57 PersonalInterview
withtheauthor(Boston,Mai 1992).
58 Ruelle [1971].
59 Lorenz[1971], 195,wherehe wrote:"Ensemblesofsolutionsofsimplified
orortherwise
p.
we shallinstead
modifiedformsof theNavier-Stokes
equationswill notqualifyas turbulence;
regardthemas modelsofturbulence".

(1946-1963)
419
Concludingremarks
to theepistemological
issues pertaining
to thequestionof modelsand
Returning
raised
at
the
of
this
we
realize
thatcontemporary
beginning
modeling
paper,
modeling
takes
between
two
one
is
andlinkedto prediction,
the
poles:
practice
place
operational
otheris turned
towardscognition,
andunderstanding.
explanation,
Althoughexamined
hereforthespecificcase of meteorology,
thisdualityis a verygeneralfeature.The
in
first
the
role
1946-55,thesecondone becamedominantaround
pole played major
and
coexisted
bothperiods.Moreover,
1960;nevertheless,
they
intermingled
throughout
often
of
the
although
protagonists spokesimply
representativeness
ofa model,itis clear
thattheconfrontation
does notrestupona realitysupposedas beingalreadythereand
a modelwhichwouldrepresent
it. It is notrealitywhichis represented
butalreadya
subtleand complexreconstruction,
boththeoretical
and empirical,of thisreality.The
reconstruction
takesplace on severallevels:(1) a systemof hypotheses,
theories,and
which
are bothfundamental
(2) a
concepts,
principlesand simplifying
assumptions;
andmeasurements;
and (3) objectivesandnormsofprediction,
systemofobservations
and uses. None of theselevelsis obviousand transparent.
In thecase we
efficiency,
followedhere,thefirstlevelmobilizedgenerallaws of physics(laws of motion,conservation
of energy,
theNavier-Stokes
equations,and otherhydrodynamic
concepts),
butalso a wholesetof assumptions
of thesystemof equaallowingforthereduction
tionsintosimplified
forms(geostrophic
equationor balanceequations,forinstance).
On thesecondlevel,a statistically
andcartographically
complexdeviceofobservations,
and
intervened.
The
third
levelwas linkedwithwhatmemeasurements, interpolations
are
the
fact
that
teorologists presently
confronting:
modelingoftheatmosphere
depends
on whetherone makesone or two-dayweatherforecasts,
studiestheevolutionof a
ora jet-stream,
orinvestigates
climatechange.
typhoon
In conclusion,
thisstoryunderlines
thecrucialimportance
ofnumerical
simulations:
different
and
factors
their
roles,computerand nuby isolating
evaluating
respective
mericalexperiments
as wellas laboratory
modelsgaveriseto a betterexploration
and
of
We
have
also
noted
the
role
of
numerical
methods
and
the
understanding "reality".
difficulties
relatedtodifferent
kindsofalgorithms
fortheintegration
ordiscretization
of
at
the
different
of
the
lattice
the
determination
of
time(in particular,
equations
points
andspace-steps
theCourantcondition).
In testing
modelsforpredicting
atmosatisfying
failures
have
their
either
in
each
of
the
levels
mentioned
sphericphenomena,
may
origin
methodsand truncation
orin thephenomenon
itselfreabove,orin computing
errors,
the
in
which
it
has
been
modeled.
confronted
with
But,
gardlessof way
unpredictable
behaviorandinstability,
itis almostimpossibleto affirm
whether
ornottheyarisefrom
theontology
ofthephenomenon.
Even afterLorenz'sresults,a fewclungto hopesfor
models
and
the
was
settled.
bigger
question notdefinitively
In thefieldofmeteorology,
theintroduction
ofthemathematical
ofdynamical
theory
came
after
that
of
One
remark
that
this
systems
modelingpractices.
may
processwas
rather
theoppositetowhathappenedwithRuelleandhisfollowers,
whodelvedintothe
turbulence
as
problembymeansofqualitative
dynamics,
onlytoturnlatertosimulations
a directresultoftheiracceptanceofLorenz'ssystem.
were
however,
Modelingpractices,
to fluidmechanicists,
butbecauseof thefield'smuchgreatersimplicity
hardlyforeign
ofdynamical
motions,thequestionofthe(linear)stability
comparedwithatmospheric

420
A. Dahan Dalmedico
was solvablebymeansofa combination

ofnumerical
equationsinpurehydrodynamics
andanalyticmethods.Whileinthelattercase,modelingpracticesremainedsubservient
tackledtheveryissueofstability
totheanalytical
meteorologists
bymeansof
problems,
itwas thewiderunderstanding
ofchaoticdynamics
simulations.
Conversely,
computer
toadoptan approachinspired
led meteorologists
whichgradually
bydynamicalsystems
theory.
thecomputer
machinestogiantcalculators,
was employed
Fromtheearlycomputing
fourtypesof computer
in a varietyof waysin fluidgeophysics.Identifying
usage beand
tween1945 and 1972,Charneyused thetermssynthetic,
heuristic,
experimental,
data-analytic:
is synthetic
whenitis usedto
a computer's
to thisclassification,
operation
According
useoccurswhenthecomputer
orstimulate
Experimental
large-scale
phenomena.
predict
inisolation
itsenvironment,
so thattheuser
from
anindividual
simulates
phenomenon,
isusedheuristically
tobuildhighly
causes.Thecomputer
itsphysical
simplified
mayinfer
intheatmosphere.
thecomputer
newrelationships
modelsas a meanstodiscover
Finally
data.60
andanalyzeobservational
canbeusedtoreduce
theMeteorological
Project,one maystatethattheworkon generalcirConcerning
the
whereastheuse of simplebaroclinicmodelsto determine
culationwas synthetic,
The
above
that
the
was
basis
of
imply
cyclogenesis experimental. arguments
physical
heuristicuse of computerstook offonlyin the early1960s, largelyon thebasis of
models.
Saltzman'sandLorenz'sworkon maximumsimplification
comments
from
theeditors
from
theeditorial
Thispaperhasbenefited
greatly
Acknowledgments.
tothem
HenkBos.I wishtoexpress
oftheArchive,
mygratitude.
especially
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(ReceivedFebruary11, 2000)


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History and Epistemology of Models: Meteorology (19461963) as a Case Study

Author(s): Amy Dahan Dalmedico

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Arch.Hist.ExactSci. 55 (2001) 395-422. SpringerVerlag2001

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academicmilieuwas replacedbythatofan expertclose to thepoliticalpowerand who

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satisfiedthefollowingcondition(laterto be called the 'Courantcondition'):theratio

1 Lecturesof von Neumannat Los AlamosLaboratoriesin

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atmosphereand thereforegave hope formoreprecise predictions.But meteorologywas

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41 We knowthatLorenzworkedhardto arriveat thisresult:itis notat all bypurechance,as

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use forthispurpose:are thetruncaFinally,Charneyraisedtheissue of computer

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wherethex and y axes pointeastwardand northward,

of FG, AG andAF are

arereadilyseento be conservedunderEqs. (4)-(6).

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valueof Ra, namely27 n4/4,occurswhena2 = '.

7tR~lRaAT~l0 = Y^/lcos{naH~l x) sin(jr7/"1z) - Z sin(2jrH~x z)

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This content downloaded from 128.54.1.92 on Thu, 5 Dec 2013 23:38:39 PM

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was solvablebymeansofa combination

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J.andRota,G.C. (eds.),A Historyofcomputing

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