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Session - 12
CAPM
Measuring Risk
Variance:
Average value of the squared deviations from mean
Standard deviation
Positive square root of variance, a very common measure
for risk
Estimating Beta
Beta measures the responsiveness of the securitys
return to movement in the market
For the average stock beta =1
If Beta>1 , it means that stock is contributing much to
the risk of the portfolio than the average stock
Beta<0 , means securities do well when market does
poorly and vice versa.
Security Returns
Slope = i
Return on
market %
Ri = i + iRm + ei
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Cov( Ri , RM )
( RM )
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CAPMContd
The CAPM uses this relationship between expected return
and risk to describe how assets are priced.
The CAPM specifies that the expected return on any asset
is a function of the return on a risk-free asset plus a risk
premium.
The return on the risk free asset is compensation for the
time value of money.
The risk premium is the compensation for bearing risk.
If we represent the expected return on each asset and its
beta as a point on a graph and connect all the points, the
result is the security market line (SML).
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CAPMContd
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Beta is dead!
Fama and French
The cross sections of expected stock returns (JoF)
Common risk factors in the return of stock and bonds (JFE)
Concluded that relationship between average reurns and beta is
weak over the period 1941 to 1960 and virtually non-existent from
1963-1990
Average return on a security is negatively related to both the firms
price earning ratio (P/E) and the firms market to book ratio (M/B)
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CAPM.Limitations
The CAPM includes some unrealistic assumptions. E.g.,
it assumes that all investors can borrow and lend at the
same rate.
The CAPM is really not testable. The market portfolio is
theoretical and not really observable.
(Risk Return and Equilibrium: Some Empirical Tests, JPE)
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Thank You!
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