The PIRAMID Technology

Overview

Background to the PIRAMID Project

A multi-year Joint Industry Program

Sponsored by

C-FER

BC Gas
ConocoPhillips
Enbridge
Foothills Pipe Lines
Kinder Morgan
PEMEX Exploration and Production
Saudi Arabian Oil Company
Sempra Energy Utilities
Tubular Goods Research Center of CNPC
Canadian Geological Survey
U.S. Minerals Management Service

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Project Goal
Develop Models and Software

Make optimal maintenance decisions

Ensure acceptable risk levels

At the lowest possible cost

Explain rationale behind decisions

C-FER

Internally within company

Externally to regulators and the public

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Development Focus

Quantitative model-based approach

Account for the impact of preventative maintenance

in-line inspection | hydrostatic pressure testing

damage prevention measures

Comprehensive treatment of risk

probability estimation
consequence estimation

life safety impact

environmental impact
economic impact

Formal decision analysis approach

C-FER

weigh benefits (risk reduction) against costs (preventative maintenance)

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PIRAMID Function

Risk
Ranking

Divide system into segments

Rank line segments

according to risk level

Determine optimal strategy

for targeted segment

Maintenance
Optimization

C-FER

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Repeat for each

targeted segment

Implement optimal actions

in order of refined ranking

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Risk Ranking
For each Segment in System
Repeat for All Hazards

Identify Hazards

Estimate
Probability of Failure
Estimate
Consequences of Failure
Estimate
Total Operating Risk

C-FER

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Ranking Results - Identify High Risk Segments

C-FER

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Maintenance Optimization
For each Targeted Segment
Repeat for All Options

Identify Integrity
Maintenance Options
Estimate Effect of Maintenance Strategy
on the Probability of Failure

Re-calculate Risk

Select Optimal Integrity

Maintenance Strategy

C-FER

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Decision
Analysis
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Analysis Results - Identify Preferred Option

C-FER

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PIRAMID Technology Summary

Comprehensive framework for maintenance planning

Quantitative and objective approach

Historical incident data

Analytical models

pipeline failure prediction

release hazard characterization

Pipeline condition data

Benefits

Generates line-specific risk estimates

Quantifies the impact of maintenance actions
Identifies minimum cost solutions

C-FER

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The PIRAMID Technology

Model Components

PIRAMID Model Components

Site
Analysis

Scenario
Definition

Decision
Analysis

Segment
Analysis

Pipeline Definition and Segmentation

Risk Estimation

Consequence
Estimation

Probability
Estimation

Structural
Reliability Models

C-FER

Technologies

Historical Failure
Rate Models

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creates
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PIRAMID Model Components

Site
Analysis

Scenario
Definition

Decision
Analysis

Segment
Analysis

Pipeline Definition and Segmentation

Risk Estimation

Consequence
Estimation

Probability
Estimation

Structural
Reliability Models

C-FER

Technologies

Historical Failure
Rate Models

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Probability Estimation

Quantify the annual chance of line failure

for each significant failure cause

Corrosion mechanisms
Cracking mechanisms
Outside forces

Failure modes considered

C-FER

Small leak
Large leak
Rupture

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pinhole
significant hole
full-bore release

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Available Methods
Historical-based Method
Historical
failure rates

Adjustment
factors

Failure
probabilities

Reliability-based Method
Condition
data

C-FER

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Structural
models

Failure
probabilities

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Historical-based Method

Approach

Strengths

Simple and fast

Limitations

Use historical failure rates and failure mode splits

Adjust to reflect line attributes and effect of maintenance
Adjustments based on statistical data, simple models, judgment

Variable accuracy (more to work with for some failure causes)

Involves subjective judgment

Recommended use

C-FER

Segment ranking and prioritization

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Historical-based Models
Failure causes addressed by HB models

Time-dependent failure

External metal loss corrosion

Internal metal loss corrosion
Stress corrosion cracking
Manufacturing cracks

Geotechnical hazard (e.g., slope movement)

Time-independent failure

Equipment impact

C-FER

seam weld fatigue - onshore

girth weld fatigue offshore

excavators - onshore
net gear/anchors/vessel hulls - offshore

Geotechnical hazard (e.g., river scour)

Seismic hazard (liquefaction, fault movement)
Other causes

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Reliability-based Method

Approach

Strengths

Gives line-specific probability estimates

Can accurately account for the impact of maintenance
Based on more readily available data

Limitations

Use line and ROW condition data

Calculate failure probability using structural behaviour models

Detailed analysis required

Recommended use

C-FER

Analyzing maintenance options

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Reliability-based Models
Failure causes addressed by RB models

Time-dependent failure

External metal loss corrosion

Internal metal loss corrosion
Stress corrosion cracking
Manufacturing cracks (axial defects)
Dent-gouges (mechanical damage)
Wrinkling or rupture due to ground movement

Time-independent failure

C-FER

Equipment impact

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PIRAMID Model Components

Site
Analysis

Scenario
Definition

Decision
Analysis

Segment
Analysis

Pipeline Definition and Segmentation

Risk Estimation

Consequence
Estimation

Probability
Estimation

Structural
Reliability Models

C-FER

Technologies

Historical Failure
Rate Models

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Consequence Estimation

Quantify the impact of failure should it occur

A model-based approach with distinct models for

Onshore pipelines
Offshore pipelines

Consequence measures

C-FER

Financial impact
Public safety impact
Environmental impact

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Dollars
Number of people at risk
Effective residual spill volume

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Consequence Estimation Model

Onshore Pipeline Systems
Failure

Line Repair
Cost

Damage
Thresholds

Lost Product
Cost

Service Interrupt
Cost

Hazard
Models

Spill Clean-up
Model

Property
Damage
Cost

Human Impact
Thresholds

Spill Impact
Factor

Effective
Residual Spill
Volume

Number of
People at Risk

Financial
Cost

C-FER

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Consequence Estimation Model

Offshore Pipeline Systems
Failure

Line Repair
Cost

Lost Product
Cost

Service Interrupt
Cost

Damage
Thresholds

Hazard
Models

Spill Decay &

Clean-up Models

Offshore
Damage
Cost

Human Impact
Thresholds

Shoreline
Impact Model

Effective
Shoreline Impact
Volume

Number of
People at Risk

Financial
Cost

C-FER

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PIRAMID Model Components

Site
Analysis

Scenario
Definition

Decision
Analysis

Segment
Analysis

Pipeline Definition and Segmentation

Risk Estimation
Consequence
Estimation

Probability
Estimation

Structural
Reliability Models

C-FER

Technologies

Historical Failure
Rate Models

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Risk Estimation
Recall
Risk = Probability x Consequences
Where consequences have three components:
Financial

Life Safety

Environmental

C-FER

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Cost ($)
Number of fatalities
Spill volume (m3)

C
N
V

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Risk Measures

Financial
Expected Cost C* = pf x C
($/year or $/km yr)

Life safety
Expected Number of Fatalities N* = pf x N
(fatalities/year or fatalities/km yr)

Environmental
Expected Residual Spill volume V* = pf x V
(m3/year or m3/km yr)

C-FER

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Combined Risk Measures - Option 1

The equivalent dollar approach
o

R = pf x (C + N + V)
where
R = Risk ($/year or $/km yr)
pf = Probability of failure
C = Failure cost
N = Number of fatalities
V = Spill volume
= Constant converting fatalities to equivalent dollars
= Constant converting residual spill volume to equivalent dollars

C-FER

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Combined Risk Measures - Option 2

The combined impact approach
o

R = pf x ( C + N + V)
where
R = Risk (severity points/yr or severity points/km yr)
pf = Probability of failure
C = Failure cost
N = Number of fatalities
V = Spill volume
= Constant converting dollars into severity points
= Constant converting fatalities into severity points
= Constant converting residual spill volume into severity points

C-FER

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Life Safety Risk Estimation

A complimentary approach - Individual Risk

C-FER

The annual probability of a person living or working at

a particular location near the pipeline becoming a fatality
due to a pipeline incident
Example
An individual risk of 1 x 10-5 means a 1 in 100,000 chance of
fatality per year

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Individual Risk

Annual Fatality Risk

1.00E-03
1.00E-04

Individual
risk at
offset

1.00E-05
1.00E-06

Offset

1.00E-07
1.00E-08
-1600

-1200

-800

-400

400

800

1200

1600

Distance
from
Pipeline
Distance
from
Pipeline(m)

C-FER

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Individual Risk Ratio

IRR = IR / IRT

Annual Fatality Risk

1.00E-03

Minimum offset
to development

1.00E-04

IR - risk at
minimum
offset

1.00E-05
1.00E-06

IRT - Maximum tolerable risk level*

1.00E-07

* Tolerable risk level depends on land use

1.00E-08
-1600

-1200

-800

-400

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800

1200

1600

Distance
from
Pipeline
Distance
from
Pipeline(m)

C-FER

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PIRAMID Model Components

Site
Analysis

Scenario
Definition

Decision
Analysis

Segment
Analysis

Pipeline Definition and Segmentation

Risk Estimation

Consequence
Estimation

Probability
Estimation

Structural
Reliability Models

C-FER

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Historical Failure
Rate Models

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Scenario Definition

A scenario is a modified copy of base-case System

Modifications can include

preventative maintenance actions

changes in operating procedures
pipe replacement

Analysis of a scenario quantifies the effect of

performing proposed actions
Comparing scenarios is the basis for decision-making

C-FER

Technologies

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PIRAMID Model Components

Site
Analysis

Scenario
Definition

Segment
Analysis

Decision
Analysis

Risk
Evaluation

Pipeline Definition and Segmentation

Risk Estimation

Consequence
Estimation

Probability
Estimation

Structural
Reliability Models

C-FER

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Historical Failure
Rate Models

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Site Analysis

Individual risk

Attribute sensitivity

Individual risk estimates and contours at a specific location

Effect of attribute variations on risk measures at a location

Risk trends

Risk vs. time at a specific location

C-FER

Probability of failure
Expected cost
Expected fatalities
Expected volume
Combined impact
Individual risk ratio

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Segment Analysis

Segment risk estimation* and ranking

Available measures

Expected combined impact (equivalent dollars or severity points)

Probability of failure
Expected cost
Expected volume
Expected fatalities
Individual risk ratio

Results available for

Individual failure causes or all causes combined

*Note segment risk is the sum of the risks from each component section

C-FER

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Decision Analysis

A framework for comparing maintenance options

Formalized decision analysis approach

Weighs benefits of maintenance against costs of implementation

Preferred option yields tolerable level of risk at lowest cost

Available analysis methods

Risk Optimization

C-FER

Cost optimization
Combined impact optimization
Utility optimization

Benefit-cost ratios

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Decision Analysis
Risk Optimization Methods

Cost optimization

Combined Impact optimization*

minimize total real dollar impact of operation

option to treat safety and/or environmental risks as constraints
minimize combined impact severity of operation
consider financial, safety and environmental impacts together

Utility optimization*

maximize value associated with all possible outcomes

consider financial, safety and environmental impacts together
reflects risk attitudes and variable trade-off

*can also treat safety and/or environmental risks as constraints

C-FER

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Decision Analysis
Benefit Cost Ratio*

Compare maintenance options to do nothing (base case) option

by estimating amount of benefit (risk reduction) per dollar
of maintenance expenditure
Maximize benefit cost ratio

*can also treat safety and/or environmental risks as constraints

C-FER

Technologies

technology
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PIRAMID Model Components

Site
Analysis

Scenario
Definition

Decision
Analysis

Segment
Analysis

Pipeline Definition and Segmentation

Risk Estimation

Consequence
Estimation

Probability
Estimation

Structural
Reliability Models

C-FER

Technologies

Historical Failure
Rate Models

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Pipeline Definition and Segmentation

System

set of pipelines to be considered

represents the base-case or do-nothing scenario

Pipeline

basis for pipeline system definition

lengths of line along which stationing is continuous

all necessary line attributes defined over entire length

Segment

basic unit for risk ranking and maintenance planning

can be repeatedly modified by user (Dynamic Segmentation)

Section

basic unit of risk analysis

C-FER

established by program based on line attributes

new section generated every time an attribute changes

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Pipeline vs. Segment vs. Section

Section - consistent attribute set

Pipeline

Sectioned automatically by line attributes

KP / MP
Start

KP / MP
End

Segmented by user
Segment - basis for system ranking
and maintenance planning
original segmentation
fixed sections

revised segmentation

Dynamic Segmentation

C-FER

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Line Attributes

Attribute types

Range attributes constant along a distance of line

Coordinate attributes measured at discrete points along line
Numeric input enter a real (floating point) number
Choice input select from a choice list
Date input YYYY/MM/DD

Methods of data entry

C-FER

direct entry through program interface (attribute spreadsheet)

cut and paste to/from attribute spreadsheet
import from a formatted text file (PIRAMID model data file .mdl)
import data from an external data source

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The Software

C-FER

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User Interface
Menu Bar
Tool Bar
Tree Diagram
Workspace

Display Area
Message Area

Status Bar

C-FER

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Demo Guidance Notes

Menu Bar command reference Settings / Consequences

C-FER

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Demo 1

Metric (SI) example

Liquid pipeline X:\Program Files\C-FER\PIRAMID\2002 Training Seminar\Level1\Demo 1\SI

Imperial (US) example

Liquid pipeline X:\Program Files\C-FER\PIRAMID\2002 Training Seminar\Level1\Demo 1\IMP

C-FER

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Demo 1 (metric) Segment Analysis Results

for All Segments in System

C-FER

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Demo 1 (metric) Segment Analysis Results

for All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral

C-FER

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Demo 1 (metric) Site Analysis Results for

All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral

C-FER

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Demo 1 (metric) Decision Analysis Results

for All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral

C-FER

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Demo 1 (metric) Decision Analysis Results for

All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral

C-FER

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Demo 1 (metric) Decision Analysis Results for

All Maintenance Scenarios on North Lateral

C-FER

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