Peacock Bull Bear

Stock Market Indicators:
Fundamental, Sentiment,
& Technical
Yardeni Research, Inc.
November 7, 2014
Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
jabbott@yardeni.com
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
djohnson@yardeni.com
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com
Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

1-2
Global Growth Barometer
3
Economic Surprise Index
4
Investors Intelligence Sentiment
5
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
6
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
7
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
8
AAII Sentiment
9
Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence
10
S&P 500 Put Call Ratio
11
Volatility
12
Volume
13
Dow Theory
14
S&P 500 Moving Averages
15-16
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma
17
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma
18
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50019
November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators

www.yardeni.com

Figure 1.
2200
140
YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX

11/7
2000
YRI Fundamental Stock

Market Indicator*
1800
120
11/1
1600
100
1400
1200
80
1000
60
800
600
40
S&P 500 Index

400
yardeni.com
200
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
20
2016
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,
four-week moving average.
Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poors Corporation.
Figure 2.
70
190
YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
11/1
180
170
Boom-Bust Barometer*
60
160
Consumer Comfort Index
150
140
130
50
120
110
40
100
11/1
90
80
30
70
60
50
yardeni.com
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
40
2015
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.
Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
Page 1 / November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

www.yardeni.com

Figure 3.
2200
750
S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

11/7
2000
S&P 500 Index
1800
CRB Raw Industrials

Spot Index
650
1600
550
11/6
1400
450
1200
1000
350
800
yardeni.com
600
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
250
2015
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.
Figure 4.
100
2200
S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

11/7
Initial Unemployment Claims

(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,
inverted scale)
200
2000
1800
11/1
300
1600
400
1400
1200
500
S&P 500 Index

1000
600
800
yardeni.com
700
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
600
2015
Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poors Corporation.

www.yardeni.com
Global Growth Barometer

Figure 5.
2050
2050
11/7
YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500
1850
1850
1650
1650
1450
1450
1250
1250
11/6
1050
1050
YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1117.4)

S&P 500 Index (2031.9)
850
850
yardeni.com
650
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
650
2015
* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added.
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.
Figure 6.
200
2200
US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

11/7
2000
175
1800
150
1600
125
1400
100
1200
11/6
S&P 500 Index
75
1000
Brent Crude Oil Price

(dollars per barrel)
50
800
yardeni.com
25
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
600
2015
Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poors Corporation.

www.yardeni.com

Figure 7.
600
150
S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

(percent)
400
100
200
50
11/6
11/7
-200
-400
-50
S&P 500 minus its

200 day-moving average
-100

yardeni.com
-600
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-150
2015
Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.
Figure 8.
17
150
S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

(percent)
100
10/30
15
50
11/7
0
13
-50
-100
S&P 500 Forward P/E*
11
-150
yardeni.com
9
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-200
2015
* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup.

www.yardeni.com
Investors Intelligence Sentiment

Figure 9.
5
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

Bull/Bear Ratio
Ratio
2.88
3.62
Oct 28
Nov 4
11/4
0
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
80
80
Oct 21
Oct 28
Nov 4
Bulls
70
Bulls
35.3
47.0
54.6
Bears
Bears
18.2
16.3
15.1
70
60
60
11/4
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
50
50
45
45
Correction Camp
40
40
35
35
11/4
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
yardeni.com
5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93
Source: Investors Intelligence.
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

www.yardeni.com
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

Figure 10.
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF

3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
11/7
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
yardeni.com
800
600
400
800
600
400
200
200
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 11.
21600
21600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF

3.0 OR MORE
(ratio scale)
17600
13600
11/7
17600
13600
9600
9600
yardeni.com
5600
1600
5600
1600
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.
Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

www.yardeni.com
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

Figure 12.
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO

OF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
11/7
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
yardeni.com
200
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
200
16
* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 13.
21600
21600
17600
11/7
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO

OF 1.0 OR LESS
(ratio scale)
13600
17600
13600
9600
9600
5600
5600
yardeni.com
1600
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1600
16
Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

www.yardeni.com
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

Figure 14.
40
40
S&P 500 INDEX

LESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE
20
20
yardeni.com
11/6
-20
-20
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average

Divided by S&P 500
(percent)
-40
-40
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 3.0.
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation.
Figure 15.
40
40
S&P 500 INDEX

LESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS
20
20
yardeni.com
11/6
-20
-20
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average

Divided by S&P 500
(percent)
-40
-40
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.

www.yardeni.com
AAII Sentiment
Figure 16.
100
100
AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

AAII Bull Ratio*
75
11/5
75
50
50
25
25
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
AAII Bull/Bear Ratio
11/5
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
80
80
Bulls
70
70
Bears
60
60
11/5
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
10
20
Oct 29
Nov 5
Latest Readings
Bulls
Bears
49.4
21.1
52.7
15.1
10
yardeni.com
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.
Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
2012
2013
2014
2015

www.yardeni.com
Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence

Figure 17.
4.5
140
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
4.0
120
3.5
3.0
100
11/4
2.5
80
2.0
1.5
60
Bull/Bear Ratio
(4-week average)
1.0
40
Consumer Confidence
Expectations Index
.5
yardeni.com
.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20
2015
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.
Figure 18.
4.5
70
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
4.0
60
3.5
3.0
11/4
50
2.5
2.0
40
1.5
Bull/Bear Ratio
(4-week average)
1.0
30
Consumer Comfort Index
.5
yardeni.com
.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20
2015
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.

www.yardeni.com
S&P 500 Put Call Ratio

Figure 19.
3.75
3.50
3.75
S&P 500 PUT/CALL

(weekly data)
3.50
3.25
3.25
3.00
3.00
2.75
2.75
2.50
2.50
2.25
2.25
2.00
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.50
10/31
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.00
Average = 1.616
(1996-2010)
.75
.50
.75
yardeni.com
96
97
.50
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.
Figure 20.
2.50
2.50
S&P 500 PUT/CALL

(4-week ma)
2.25
2.25
2.00
2.00
10/31
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.50
1.25
1.25
Average = 1.624
(1996-2010)
1.00
.75
1.00
yardeni.com
96
97
.75
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.

www.yardeni.com
Volatility
Figure 21.
90
90
VIX: S&P 500
80
80
70
70
60
60
yardeni.com
50
40
50
40
30
30
20
20
11/6
10
10
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
Figure 22.
100
100
VIX: NASDAQ 100
80
60
60
yardeni.com
80
40
20
40
20
11/6
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

www.yardeni.com
Volume
Figure 23.
12
12
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE WEEKLY VOLUME

(billion shares, 4-week moving average)
52-week moving average
10
yardeni.com
10
10/31
4
2
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.

www.yardeni.com
Dow Theory
Figure 24.
18000
9000
DOW JONES STOCK AVERAGES
11/7
Industrials (DJIA)
8000
16000
Transportation (DJTA)
7000
14000
6000
12000
5000
10000
4000
8000
3000
yardeni.com
6000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2000
2015
Source: The Wall Street Journal.
Figure 25.
2800
700
S&P 500 STOCK INDEXES
11/6
2550
Industrials Composite*
2300
600
Transportation Composite
500
2050
1800
400
1550
300
1300
200
1050
yardeni.com
800
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
100
2015
* S&P 500 excluding Financials, Transports, and Utilities.


www.yardeni.com

Figure 26.
2400
2400
S&P 500 INDEX: 2008-2014*
2200
2200
-56.8%
(510)
-16.0%
(69)
-19.4% -9.8% -9.9% -7.7%

(154) (27)
(59)
(61)
-7.4%
(27)
11/6
2000
2000
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
S&P 500 (2031.21)

1000
50-day moving average (1970.00)
1000
200-day moving average (1915.98)

800
800
yardeni.com
600
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
600
2015
* Dips are declines of less than 10%. Corrections are declines of 10% to 20%. Bear markets are declines of 20% or more. Number of days in parentheses.
Figure 27.
30
25
30
S&P 500 INDEX
25
(as a percent of 200-day moving average)
20
20
15
15
10
10
11/6
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
-35
-35
-40
-40
yardeni.com
-45
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-45
2015

www.yardeni.com

Figure 28.
2200
2200
S&P 500 INDEX*
11/6
2000
2000
Latest price: 2031.21

50-dma: 1970.00
200-dma: 1915.98
1800
1600
1800
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
(+) Latest price is 3.0% above the 50-dma.

(+) Latest price is 5.7% above the 200-dma.
yardeni.com
600
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
600
2015
* Ratio Scale
Figure 29.
25
20
25
S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICALS

THE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS
20
(50-dma relative to 200-dma, percent, weekly)
15
15
10
10
5
10/31
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
yardeni.com
-30
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
-30
17
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poors Corporation.

www.yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma

Figure 30.
700
600
500
400
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*
11/6
INDUSTRIALS
11/6
625
525
425
300
325
200
225
100
125
2008
575
475
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CONSUMER STAPLES
2015
11/6
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
11/6
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
375
750
650
550
450
350
275
250
175
150
2008
900
750
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
ENERGY
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
MATERIALS
2015
11/6
250
11/6
600
200
450
150
300
100
2008
575
475
375
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
FINANCIALS
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
225
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
11/6
11/6
275
175
125
175
75
75
2008
975
825
350
300
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
HEALTH CARE
2015
11/6
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
300
UTILITIES
11/6
675
250
200
525
150
375
yardeni.com
225
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
100
2015
*S&P 500 sectors on ratio scales.

200-day moving average

www.yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma

Figure 31.
60
40
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
40
INDUSTRIALS
% from 200-day moving average
20
20
11/6
11/6
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
2008
30
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CONSUMER STAPLES
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
50
15
25
11/6
11/6
-15
-25
-30
-50
2008
40
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
ENERGY
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
40
MATERIALS
20
20
11/6
11/6
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
2008
50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
FINANCIALS
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
30
25
15
11/6
11/6
-25
-15
-50
-30
-75
-45
2008
30
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
HEALTH CARE
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
30
UTILITIES
15
15
11/6
11/6
-15
-15
-30
-30
yardeni.com
-45
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-45
2015

www.yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 500

Figure 32.
.35
.30
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
.26
INDUSTRIALS
(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)
11/6
.24
11/6
.25
.22
.20
.20
.15
.35
.18
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CONSUMER STAPLES
.40
.30
.35
11/6
.25
.30
11/6
.20
.25
.15
.6
.20
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ENERGY
MATERIALS
.25
.5
.20
.4
11/6
.3
11/6
.15
.2
.1
.4
.10
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
FINANCIALS
.16
.14
.3
.12
.10
.2
11/6
11/6
.1
.45
.08
.06
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
HEALTH CARE
UTILITIES
.40
.20
.18
11/6
.16
.35
.14
11/6
.30
.12
.10
yardeni.com
.25
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
.08
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

November 7, 2014 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators

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Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX

YRI Fundamental Stock

S&P 500 Index

YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

Consumer Comfort Index

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Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

S&P 500 Index

CRB Raw Industrials

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.

S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

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S&P 500 Index

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Global Growth Barometer

YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1117.4)

US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

S&P 500 Index

Brent Crude Oil Price

Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poors Corporation.

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Economic Surprise Index

S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

S&P 500 minus its

Economic Surprise Index

Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

S&P 500 Forward P/E*

Economic Surprise Index

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Investors Intelligence Sentiment

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

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Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF

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Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO

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Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

S&P 500 INDEX

S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average

S&P 500 INDEX

S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average

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AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

AAII Bull/Bear Ratio

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Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

Consumer Comfort Index