Airbus GMF Booklet 2014-2033 01

Global Market Forecast
Flying on
demand
2014 2033
003
Introduction
2014, MARKED THE CENTENARY OF COMMERCIAL FLIGHT
OPERATIONS, with the first scheduled flight taking off in January
1914. This airboat service carried passengers, one-by-one, between St
Petersburg and Tampa in Florida. It took 23 minutes and cost five dollars
one way, the equivalent of $116 in 2014 dollars. The same journey took
two hours by boat, 4-12 hours by train or up to 20 hours by road. The
economic benefits of air transport were clear. Thomas Benoist, the
builder of the airboats, said, Someday, people will be crossing oceans
on airliners like they do on steamships today. As a twenty-year forecast
it was not far off the mark! Today, the global airline industry performs
around 32 million commercial flights a year, transporting 3 billion
passengers and 50 million tonnes of freight. Tampa International Airport
handled 17 million passengers in 2013, an incredible evolution in the
relatively short time since this first commercial air service. New, emerging
markets continue to drive impressive growth, their airlines cutting journey
times massively for millions of new travelers.
In the year that has passed since our last forecast, aviation has
continued to deliver growth and prosperity both locally and globally.
ATAG (the Air Transport Action Group) recently assessed the industrys
global economic impact at $2.4 trillion annually, providing employment
for nearly 60 million people. Affordable air transport is not purely a
consequence of economic growth but is one of its great enablers.
The benefits are also clear for millions of passengers flying every day,
with aviation playing a key role in lives which are increasingly driven
by a global society. In our forecast we take the very latest economic
and market data and apply a forecasting methodology developed and
refined over decades to give us an insight into future developments. We
challenge our analysts to consider how factors such as demographics,
trade and tourism flows, oil price, environmental issues and competition
will define our future industry and in turn this helps us define our forecast.
We chose the title Flying on Demand for this years Global Market
Forecast to reflect the fact that for an increasing number of people,
flying is no longer a dream but an expectation. An expectation of the
availability of air transport, an expectation of a satisfying passenger
experience and an expectation of what constitutes value for money.
New and evolving technologies continue to make travel simpler, from the
booking process to the airport experience and of course, on the aircraft
itself. In mature markets flying is now taken for granted, which is not the
case for forecasters and planners helping to ensure that air transport can
continue to fulfil its potential.
We hope that you find the 2014 Global Market Forecast informative and
useful. We seek to improve our analyses continually, and your questions,
challenges and suggestions help us in that aim. Dont forget you can
download our App in several formats from tablet to smartphone. It
complements the forecast and includes more interactive information than
ever before.
As usual this is best read on a long flight. Enjoy !
004
005
01
Executive summary
P.007
Demand by region
P.053
02
Demand for air travel

P.015
Asia-Pacific P.054
Europe P.058
North America P.062
Middle East P.066
Latin America & Caribbean P.070
CIS P.074
Africa P.078
Demand for freighters

P.083
03
04
05
Traffic forecast
06
P.029
Summary
& methodology
Demand for
passenger aircraft
P.041
P.89
07
006
01
Executive
summary
Passenger deliveries (>100 seats)
4.7
2014-2033
30,555
% CAGR*
Freight traffic growth
4.5
New freighters
% CAGR
2014-2033
803
Passenger fleet
2014
16,855
2033
34,818
Passenger & new freighter deliveries
+17,963
2014-2033
31,358
Freighter fleet
2014
1,605
009
Passenger traffic growth next 20 years
2033
2,645
+1,040
2013-2023 2023-2033
2013-2033
5.2% 4.2% 4.7%
TRAFFIC WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 15 YEARS

Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2014
World annual RPK* (trillion)
16
ICAO total traffic
Airbus GMF 2014
14
12
10
8
Air traffic has doubled

every 15 years
6
4
Air traffic will double

in the next 15 years
2033
2028
2023
2018
2013
2008
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0
1973
008
* Revenue Passenger Kilometres
010
Traffic
>
double
Pax fleet
>
double
Demand
for 31,358
New pax
& freight
aircraft
Value
of demand
$4.6 trillion
2014 - 2033
NEW DELIVERIES
31,358
SINGLE-AISLE: 70% OF UNITS; WIDE-BODIES: 55% OF VALUE

Source: Airbus
DEMAND FOR OVER 31,350 NEW AIRCRAFT
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft
Source: Airbus
24,000
Passenger and freighter aircraft

40,000
37,463
20,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
+3.8%
16,000
19,003
Growth
12,000
per annum
New
aircraft
31,358
18,460
15,000
8,000
4,000
12,355
Replaced
10,000
5,000
6,105
Stay in service
& converted
Beginning 2014
Passenger aircraft 100 seats, Freighter aircraft 10 tonnes
2033
Single-aisle
Small
twin-aisle
Intermediate
twin-aisle
Very Large
Aircraft
% units
70%
16%
9%
5%
% value
45%
26%
18%
11%
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
011
NEW AIRCRAFT DEMAND PASSENGER AND FREIGHTER
2014-2023
Africa
2024-2033
2014-2033
Share of 2014-2033
new deliveries
459
514
973
3%
5,107
7,146
12,253
39%
620
598
1,218
4%
Europe
3,135
3,032
6,167
20%
Latin America
1,011
1,252
2,263
7%
Middle East
1,039
1,109
2,148
7%
North America
2,816
2,717
5,533
18%
452
351
803
2%
14,639
16,719
31,358
100%
Asia/Pacific
CIS
Freighters
World
Most deliveries to go to Asia Pacific,

39% or 12,253 passenger aircraft
North America and Europe 38%,
or 11,700 aircraft deliveries
DEMAND FOR MORE THAN 31,000 NEW AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES
1,555 passenger aircraft will be

converted to freighters
30,555
North America to take most freighters,

338 new, 545 converted, 37% of demand
New
deliveries
803
31,358
Mid-size freighter deliveries are the heart

of the market 49% new and converted
12,355 aircraft will be retired to be replaced
by more eco-efficient type
Passenger
Fleet
Asia/Pacific
Alone to take
39%
deliveries
N.America/
Europe
38%
deliveries
Converted
1,555
Freighter
Fleet
Remarketed
& stay
in service
4,263
1,555
Pax aircraft
Converted to
freighters
11,037
Pax aircraft
Replaced by
more
Eco-efficient
types
11,037
Retired
1,318
12,355
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
013
02
Demand
for air travel
017
Key drivers for air traffic growth:
Economic growth rates in emerging regions/

countries will outstrip the developed.
Economic growth
Increasing urbanisation
Expanding middle class
Rise in migration, tourism
and international students
Emerging markets do not only include Asia/

Pacific, but also Latin America, Africa and
the Middle East.
A ten percentage point increase
in passengers from emerging countries
in the last 10 years: more to come.
Today, the middle class represent 33% of
world population; forecasts suggest 63%
by 2033.
The middle class will grow nearly four times in
the Asia/Pacific.
International tourist arrivals to reach
1.6 billion in 2020, well above the 1.1 billion
as of 2013.
International tourist arrivals (million)

1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
History
INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS EXPECTED TO REACH
1.6 BILLION PEOPLE BY 2020
Source: World Tourism Organization, Airbus
Forecast
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0
1995
016
018
019
GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS TO MORE THAN DOUBLE
THE WORLD IS MORE URBANISED
Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus
Source: UN population division, Airbus

World population and share of urban agglomerations evolution (billion)
10
80%
70%
Other
North America
Asia-Pacific
Europe & CIS
60%
50%
6
5
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Rural
Urban
2013
2023
7,100
7,900
33%
2033
8,500
48%
63%
Middle class as % of world population
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
World Population
5,375
Urban share
x 2.3
3,740
MORE AND MORE AIR PASSENGERS ORIGINATING FROM EMERGING COUNTRIES

Source: Sabre GDD (September data of each year), Airbus
2033
775
Share of international trips tickets issued in emerging countries
3,675
40%
35%
2,356
30%
25%
2013
20%
15%
2023
596
2,186
x 3.8
446
10%
Global Middle Class*

(Millions of people)
967
5%
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0%
*Households with daily

expenditures between
$10 and $100
per person (at PPP)
264
261
252
679
697
673
021
MOST OF THE NETWORK FRAGMENTATION IS DRIVEN BY LCCS

AND MIDDLE EAST CARRIERS
Source: OAG
Network
development
Evolution of number of routes, 1995-2013, Index 100=1995

750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
Much of the fragmentation has been driven

by LCCs and Middle Eastern airlines
Airlines are finding more economical ways to
expand through code share and alliances
Unsurprisingly much of the opportunity focuses
on the emerging nations
150
100
50
Middle East
LCC
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
1997
The share of traffic on these routes is now stable,

suggesting new route driven fragmentation
is maturing
200
1996
The network is constantly evolving but 40% of

ASKs flown today are flown on routes existing
20 years ago
1995
Others
CODE SHARE GENERALISATION
Code share flights
Source: OAG, September month
Operating flights
Evolution of monthly number of flights, 1996-2013
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
1998
Massive amount of traffic carried through

the Aviation Mega-cities
1,400,000
1997
Mega-cities are the home for larger aircraft.

Today, 85% of A380s fly between these 42 cities,
the remaining 15% fly from Mega-cities
to secondary destinations
1996
020
022
> 50,000 daily long-haul

passengers
passengers
passengers
Cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers,
Long-haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
Source: Airbus
2013 AVIATION MEGA-CITIES
Source: Airbus Market Research

and Forecasts
42
0.8 M
94%
AVIATION
MEGA-CITIES
DAILY PASSENGERS:
Long Haul traffic to/from/via Mega Cities
OF LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC ON ROUTES
to/from/via 42 cities
2033 AVIATION MEGA-CITIES
Source: Airbus Market Research and Forecasts
91
2.2 M
99%
AVIATION
MEGA-CITIES
DAILY PASSENGERS:
Long Haul traffic to/from/via Mega Cities
OF LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC ON ROUTES
to/from/via 91 cities
023
025
Productivity up,
Environmental impact down
In the last 30 years:
Airport movements up nearly 2.5 times
Airport connectivity almost doubled
Average offered seats per aircraft heading
towards 200, aircraft are getting bigger!
Offered ASKs per aircraft have more
than doubled
x 2.4 x1.8
Worldwide average load factor ~80%,

up 17 percentage points since 1980
AIRPORT
CONNECTIVITY
MOVEMENT
PER AIRPORT
Is there a limit to productivity
improvements?
Still some margin regarding airport use
AIRPORT MOVEMENTS
AIRPORT CONNECTIVITY
Source: OAG, Airbus
Source: OAG, Airbus
Avg. number of destinations per airport
Avg. number of movements per airport
20,000
14
18,000
12
16,000
10
14,000
12,000
10,000
x 2.4
8,000
x 1.8
6,000
4,000
2
2,000
0
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
0
1980
024
027
Is there a limit to productivity

improvements?
Still some margin regarding
aircraft utilisation
Since 2000:
Average fuel per passenger per trip
is down 31%
Therefore CO2 is also down 31%
OFFERED SEATS PER AIRCRAFT
FUEL CONSUMPTION
Source: OAG, Ascend, Airbus
Source: ICAO, IATA, Airbus

Kilograms per passenger per trip (avg.)
Avg. number of offered seats per aircraft (000)
120
250
100
200
+ 43%
150
- 31%
80
60
100
40
50
20
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2000
2013
2010
2007
C02 EMISSIONS
Source: OAG, Ascend, Airbus
Source: ICAO, IATA, Airbus

Kilograms per passenger per trip (avg.)
350
300
- 31%
250
200
150
100
50
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
+ 111%
2000
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
OFFERED ASKS PER AIRCRAFT
2001
0
1980
026
03
Traffic
forecast
030
Passenger
traffic
forecast
Aviation remains resilient

to crises, growing 73% over
the last 10 years.
Domestic China will be
the largest flow by 2033,
representing 11.9% of
world traffic.
European airlines combined.

Airlines in Europe and North
America will together
fly 37%.
Middle Eastern carriers will
grow from an 8% share to
13% of traffic in the next
20 years.
A
n average growth rate of
9.8% per year will make
Domestic India the
7th largest flow by 2033,
and the fastest growing
domestic flow in
our forecast.
2013-2033
4.7%
73%
Airlines in the Asia/Pacific

will fly 36% of total traffic, the
same as North American and
PER ANNUM
GROWTH DESPITE
MULTIPLE CRISES OVER
THE LAST TEN YEARS
AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO BE RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS

Source: ICAO, Airbus
Financial Crisis
SARS
9/11
Asian Crisis
Gulf Crisis
Oil Crisis
Oil Crisis
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)

6.0
5.0
73%
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
2013
2008
2003
1998
1993
1983
1978
1973
1968
1963
0.0
031
North Africa - PRC
Middle East - South Africa
CIS - Middle East
Indian Sub - Russia
Asia Advanced - Indian Sub
7.0%
7.2%
7.6%
7.8%
7.9%
8.2%
7.0%
7.8%
8.3%
7.4%
7.6%
8.0%
8.6%
8.4%
7.5%
7.5%
9.5%
Intra Asia Emerging
Asia Emerging - PRC
Middle East - PRC
Central Europe - Middle East
Middle East - South America
PRC - Russia
CIS - PRC
Sub Sahara Africa - Middle East
Asia Emerging - South America
Middle East - Russia
8.4%
8.9%
9.5%
500
Asia Emerging - Indian Sub
Indian Sub - South America
Sub Sahara Africa - PRC
_
Billions RPK
Source: Airbus GMF 2014
Indian Sub - PRC
Billions RPK
DOMESTIC PRC WILL BE THE LARGEST O&D TRAFFIC FLOW IN 2033
Domestic India
Sub Sahara Africa - Western Europe
Asia Advanced - Asia Emerging
Asia Emerging - Middle East
India Sub-Continent - USA
Central Europe - Western Europe
Asia Emerging - PRC
South America - USA
Western Europe - South America
PRC - USA
Western Europe - PRC
Domestic Brazil
Western Europe - Middle East
India Sub-Continent - Middle East
Domestic India
Asia Emerging - Western Europe
Domestic Asia Emerging
Western Europe - USA
Intra Western Europe
Domestic USA
Domestic PRC
032
2,000
1,500
1,000
033
DOMESTIC INDIA WILL BE THE FASTEST O&D TRAFFIC FLOW
400
300
200
100
034
ASIA-PACIFIC TO LEAD IN WORLD TRAFFIC BY 2033

% SHARE OF
2013 WORLD RPK
RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)

0
Asia-Pacific
1,000
2013 traffic
2,000
3,000
4,000
2012-2033 traffic
20-YEAR
CAGR
% SHARE OF
2033 WORLD RPK
5,000
30% 5.7% 36%
Europe
25% 3.6% 20%
North America
24% 2.9% 17%
Middle East
8%
7.1% 13%
Latin America
5% 5.4% 6%
CIS
4% 5.4% 5%
Africa
3% 4.7% 3%
035
036
Emerging markets driving growth

Emerging markets will
drive growth, whereas traffic
between emerging markets
will grow 6.8% annually,
representing 38 % of total
traffic in 2033.
28% of traffic will involve
flows in the advanced
aviation markets, whereas
International long-haul traffic
will still represent the largest
share of traffic worldwide
in 2033.
EMERGING REGIONS WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGEST SHARE OF ORIGIN

AND DESTINATION TRAFFIC WORLDWIDE
Source: ICAO, Sabre GDD, Airbus GMF 2014
World annual RPK (trillion)
16
ICAO total traffic
Airbus GMF 2014
14
AdvancedAdvanced CAGR
EmergingAdvanced CAGR
2.6%
12
EmergingEmerging CAGR
5.0%
6.8%
10
28%
Advanced-Advanced
34%
6
Advanced-Emerging
42%
4
33%
38%
Emerging-Emerging
25%
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
037
Freight traffic forecast

Freight traffic will grow 5.0% per annum over the next
10 years, and +4.5% over the next 20 years.
Our freight traffic forecast is slightly lower this year,
as a result of slightly lower long term prospects forecast
for trade at 4.3% CAGR.
GMF 2013
GMF FREIGHT FORECASTS REVISED DOWN SLIGHTLY
GMF 2014
Source: Seabury, Airbus
WORLD TRADE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS

COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GMF
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus
World trade evolution (billion 2010 $US)

60,000
2012-2032
+4.6%/year
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
2012-2032
+4.3%/year
10,000
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
038
039
04
Demand
for passenger
aircraft
043
Demand for
passenger
aircraft
The fleet will double to 34,800 aircraft
75% of operations are below 1,300nm for
single-aisle, 4,800nm for Twin-Aisle,
and 5,900nm for VLAs
Each segment has discrete areas of operation in
terms of range, but clearly there is some overlap
Average seats per single aisle flight increasing from
~130 in 1993 to ~155 in 2013
A focus for larger aircraft at Aviation Mega-cities
20 %
OF TWIN-AISLES
OPERATE
LESS THAN
2,000 NM
044
20-YEAR GROWTH IN AVERAGE
SINGLE-AISLE SEATS
+14%
DENSIFICATION OF SINGLE-AISLE AIRCRAFT
Source: OAG, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts
Average seats per single-aisle flight
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
1993
1998
2008
2013
045
046
047
CLEAR SHIFT IN AIRCRAFT-TYPE DEPLOYMENT AROUND 2,000

NAUTICAL MILES
Source: OAG, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts
Regional
Twin-aisle
Single-aisle
VLA
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
GCD Range (nm)

7,000
6,800
6,600
6,400
6,200
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
5,200
5,000
4,800
4,600
4,400
4,200
4,000
3,800
3,400
3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
400
200
0%
048
Long-haul flights by operation type

THE LARGER THE AIRCRAFT THE HIGHER
THE FOCUS ON AVIATION MEGA-CITIES
A380
Source: OAG (Sept 2013)
From/To/Between AMC
Between secondary cities
777-300/300ER
787
747-400/8
All Widebody Aircraft
777-200/200ER/
-200LR
767
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
A330
049
050
New deliveries by region

CIS
GLOBAL NETWORK
NORTH AMERICA
7% 61%
32%
EUROPE
14%
1% 85%
13%
3% 79%
18%
2% 85%
ASIA PACIFIC
MIDDLE EAST
LCCs
10%
16%
1% 89%
29%
5% 66%
38%
46%
AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
20%
22%
1% 79%
3% 75%
OTHERS*
23%
2% 75%
New deliveries
30,555 aircraft
1,228
SA
7,256
TA
22,071
VLA
Fleet evolution
New deliveries by neutral category

7,228
Market value
6,547
17,963
Growth
10%
3,713
3,364
2,439 2,514
1,219
100
1,405
125
150
US$ 2.1
trillion
175
210
US$ 4.4 trillion
250
300
US$ 1.9
trillion
350
898
400
1,228
16,855
VLA
US$ 0.4
trillion
12,592
4,263
Beginning
2014
2033
Replaced
Stay in service
& remarketed
43%
47%
051
05
Demand
by region
054
AsiaPacific
Asia-Pacific will lead world
economic growth, both in
real GDP with an average of
4.6% per year and in trade
with an average of 5.7% per
year. GDP is an important
driver of aviation growth.
Over 50% of the new
routes will connect with
Asia-Pacific.
Emerging markets, such
as Africa and the CIS,
are also set for more
connectivity with AsiaPacific, with nearly 20%
of new routes to the region
coming from these regions.
Seats and flights offered by
the LCCs have increased
dramatically since 2000.
The fact that the seats
offered has out-paced flight
growth, means that the
average aircraft capacity
utilised by LCCs has grown
more than 50% over that
period.
Domestic and intraregional flying set to grow
faster than inter-regional
traffic; 6.2% per annum vs
5.2%. Although both are well
above the global average for
20 year traffic growth at 4.7%
CAGR.
NEW DELIVERIES
12,253
38% 62%
REPLACEMENT
FOR GROWTH
34%
WILL BE WIDE-BODY WITH

MANY OF THESE TO BE USED
ON MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONS,

AS WELL AS LONG-HAUL.
055
056
Results
RPK traffic growth from/to
Asia-Pacific by region
20232033
In 2014
5,083
Beginning
2014
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
** 2013-2033 CAGR
057
058
Europe
Europe will represent 20%
of the world economy
by 2033.
Air traffic in Europe,
expressed in ASKs,
is 15% larger than
the peak pre-crisis
in 2007/2008.
Today, 45% of all seats
offered within Europe
are on an LCC flight
and there have been
significant increases in LCC
traffic to/from other regions
such as CIS, Northern Africa
and the Middle East.
Today, there are more
than 50 million monthly
passengers connecting
to long-haul flights.
For major international
carriers in Europe, these
represent the core short
haul market.
While the majority of the
growth has come from
the short-haul market,
which has grown by 75%
in the last ten years; the
long-haul market has also
seen impressive growth of
45% over the same period.
Today, nearly 50% of all
long-haul flights connect
with Europe and over 50%
of long-haul seats offered
connect to the region.
For the next 20 years,
long-haul passenger
traffic will grow slightly faster
than short-haul traffic
(3.9% per year vs 3.8%.)
NEW DELIVERIES
6,167
49% 51%
REPLACEMENT
FOR GROWTH
79%
WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES DUE TO

EUROPEAN POPULATION LANDSCAPE
059
060
Results

Europe by region
061
062
063
North
America
US real GDP growth is forecast to
average 2.5% per year in the 20132033 period. By 2033, North America
will still account for 22% of the global
economy (in real terms).
Origin and destination (O&D) traffic
to/from North America to grow at an
average of 3.4% for the next 20 years.
The annual retirement trend of
passenger aircraft (>=100 seats)
in North America is on an upward
trajectory, with a 10-year CAGR
of 6.8%.
The Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA) estimates that airport
congestion and delays cost the
economy $22 billion in 2012, which
could escalate to $63 billion in 2040.
One tactic, which is helping to alleviate
some of the effects today is the use of
larger aircraft.
Inter-regional flying set to grow
significantly faster than domestic or
intra-region operations, CAGR of 4.2%
vs 1.9%.
NEW DELIVERIES
5,533
65 35
%
REPLACEMENT
FOR GROWTH
85%
WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES, DUE

TO THE IMPORTANCE OF THE US
DOMESTIC MARKET.
BUT REPLACEMENTS, AND AN OPPORTUNITY
AND FOCUS ON INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS
WILL STIMULATE DEMAND FOR LARGER TYPES
064

North America by region
Results
065
066
NEW DELIVERIES
2,
1
48
20 80
%
REPLACEMENT
Middle East
The Middle East has
become a major centre
for air transport, one of
growing global importance.
The share of passenger
aircraft in the world
operated by the regions
carriers has doubled in
10 years. This has occurred
even with the global fleet
of wide-body aircraft
growing 24%.
It is the only region in the
world where the wide-body
fleet is larger than the
single-aisle fleet.
Globally, air traffic has

doubled every 15 years;
in the Middle East, ASKs
multiplied three and
a half times in the last
10 years alone.
Medium and long-haul routes
between the Middle East
and Asia-Pacific or Europe
constitute the core growth
markets for traffic.
Since 2007, the ASK market
share of low-cost carriers
on Middle Eastern shorthaul markets has increased
significantly, reaching nearly
25% today.
FOR GROWTH
62%
WILL BE WIDE-BODIES DUE TO

THE POSITION THE REGION IS CREATING
FOR ITSELF AS A MAJOR GLOBAL HUB
067
068
Results

Middle East by region
069
070
Latin America
& Caribbean
The regions real GDP
growth is expected to
average 3.9% per year in
the 2013-2033 period, above
world average of 3.2%, and
helping to stimulate air travel.
In countries such as Chile,
Brazil and Colombia,
the propensity to travel
is expected to reach the
levels currently observed
in many more mature
economies by 2033.
Traffic within the region
is expected to be prominent
over the next 20 years,
representing 35% of total
RPKs in 2033, from 30% in
2013.
Two of the top twenty
largest traffic flows, are
international traffic flows
connecting to the region:
Western Europe - South
America, with an expected
annual growth of 4.6% and
South America - USA, with
an average annual expansion
of 5.2%.
There has been strong
growth in domestic
markets, even beyond the
two largest markets, Brazil
and Mexico. For example,
over the last ten years a
double digit annual growth
rate in Chile was matched by
Colombia and Peru.
NEW DELIVERIES
2,263
33% 67%
REPLACEMENT
FOR GROWTH
79%
WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES DRIVEN

BY STRONG GROWTH IN AIR TRAVEL
DOMESTICALLY AND AROUND
THE REGION
(5.6% INTRA-REGIONAL AND DOMESTIC
GROWTH PER ANNUM).
071
072
Results
Latin America by region
073
074
075
NEW DELIVERIES
CIS
The Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) is one of the largest regions in the world,
departing from St Petersburg in Russia, it
would take almost 9 hours flying to reach its
eastern most city.
Over the last decade, traffic to/from/within CIS
has grown on average 11% a year in terms of
ASKs, twice as fast as the world average
of 5.1%.
In 2013, traffic growth reached 7.0%,
dramatically outpacing economic activity,
aviations traditional driver for growth.
An easing of visa procedures helped, stimulate
the number of arrivals in CIS countries, which
have increased 50% over the last 10 years.
Traffic growth will be above the World average,
with strong growth in inter-regional traffic at a
6.2% CAGR.
The share of older less efficient eastern built
aircraft in the fleet, above 100 seats, has
reduced in 10 years from 86% in 2003 to only
12% today.
1,218
THE MAJORITY WILL
BE FOR GROWTH
85%
WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES
THE CIS PASSENGER FLEET IS

FORECAST TO GROW
132%
2,044
TO
AIRCRAFT
076
Results
RPK traffic growth from/to CIS by region
1,036
20 year new
deliveries
1,218
077
078
Africa
Africas biggest asset
is people, its population
is set to grow to 1.7 billion
by 2033.
Strengthening
entrepreneurship, travel
and tourism, regional
integration are often listed
as just a few of the drivers of
sustainable growth in Africa.
Over the 2013-2033 period,
Africa is forecast to reach
similar economic growth
as Asia-Pacific, with
average real GDP growth
of 4.6% per year or trade
growth of 5.5% per year.
In terms of air traffic, intraregional development also
represents a huge potential
for air transport in Africa,
as the share of intra-regional
passenger traffic is well
below observed levels in
Asia-Pacific, the Americas
or Europe.
At just an 8% share of intraregional traffic, the low cost
model could play a bigger
role in Africas aviation
future.
More growth expected on
domestic and intra-regional
flying than inter-regionally,
6.1% vs 5.5% CAGR.
NEW DELIVERIES
973
8%
REPLACEMENT
92%
FOR GROWTH
75%
WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES
FLEET SET TO GROW
146%
BY 2033
079
080
Results
081
RPK traffic growth from/to Africa by region
06
Demand
for freighters
084
085
Freight
forecast
2014
North America fleet is mainly

a replacement market
Asia-Pacific fleet is set to triple
as growth market
THE FUTURE FREIGHTER FLEET DISTRIBUTION WILL REFLECT
THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF EMERGING MARKETS
Source: Airbus GMF 2014, ASCEND
977
775
452
337
170
67
North America
Middle East
Europe & CIS
Latin America
303
49 86
162
74
Asia-Pacific
Africa
Freight traffic growth
4.5
798
% CAGR*
World fleet evolution

2014: 1,605
2033: 2,645
FREIGHTER DELIVERIES WILL EXCEED 2,300

AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS
Today, there are 1,605

dedicated freighter aircraft
with a cargo hold of at least
10 tons.
New freighters
Conversions
Freighter deliveries over the next 20 years
Air Cargo transports a third

of total World trade by value.
1,500
Demand fundamentals
remain strong in the long
term. Global trade is forecast
to develop at 4.3% per year
for the next 20 years.
Freight market dynamics
have changed however.
In recent years, changing
practices in inventory
management, available
capacity and pricing from
other modes, such as ships,
has had an effect.
1,145
1,000
414
In the future an increase in

passenger airlines will lead
to increased belly capacity,
potentially leading to less
demand for dedicated
freighters.
Despite the challenges facing

the air cargo market, the
long-term prospects remain
positive, with freight traffic
set to double over the next
20 years.
612
1,555
Converted
601
500
731
803
New build
Airbus forecasts demand

for more than 800 new build
freighters over that time
212
Fleet to
almost
Double
0
Mid-Size
30t < payload < 80t
Our forecast suggests that

the highest demand in terms
of volumes, both new and
converted, will come from the
mid-size freighter category
with 1,145 aircraft (414 new
and 731 converted).
389
Large
payload < 80t
More intra-regional traffic

and the express freight
boom means that freighters
in the mid-size category are
becoming more attractive to
the freight operators.
Small
10t < payload < 30t
086
087
07
Summary &
methodology
090
091
Summary
of results
NEW PASSENGER AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
Africa
AsiaPacific
Single-Aisle
734
Small
Twin-Aisle
CONVERTED FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
Lat. & Middle North

TOTAL
Caribb. East America
Africa
AsiaPacific
Small
39
311
81
82
86
612
4,953
Mid-size
23
116
22
123
37
24
386
731
199
2,303
Large
10
73
13
27
16
73
212
341
35
1,228
TOTAL
72
500
42
231
119
46
545
1,555
2,148
5,533
30,555
CIS
Europe
8,066
1,036
4,895
1,784
826
4,730
22,071
158
2,510
132
754
349
481
569
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
54
1,055
25
368
102
500
Very Large
Aircraft
27
622
25
150
28
973
12,253
1,218
6,167
2,263
TOTAL
NEW FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION

AsiaPacific
Small
Mid-size
72
13
36
30
29
229
Large
147
10
50
65
12
219
23
86
31
94
TOTAL
Europe
Europe
Lat. & Middle North

TOTAL
NEW PASSENGER & FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
Africa
CIS
CIS
Lat. & Middle North

TOTAL
Africa
AsiaPacific
Single-Aisle
734
414
Small
Twin-Aisle
109
389
338
803
Europe
8,066
1,036
4,895
1,784
826
4,730
22,071
162
2,535
134
763
356
486
709
5,145
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
57
1,147
39
410
125
543
320
2,641
Very Large
Aircraft
32
724
32
185
29
387
112
1,501
985
12,472
1,241
6,253
2,294
2,242
5,871
31,358
TOTAL
Passenger aircraft 100 seats and freight aircraft 10 tons
Lat. & Middle North

TOTAL
CIS
092
093
AIRBUS S.A.S. 31707 Blagnac Cedex, France

AIRBUS S.A.S. 2014 - All rights reserved, Airbus, its
logo and the product names are registered trademarks.
Concept design by Airbus Multi Media Support 20140507.
Photos by: Airbus, Datacraft, H. Gouss, A. Rich.
Courtesy of the St. Petersburg Museum of History.
Reference D14029465. September, 2014.
Printed in France by Art & Caractre.
Confidential and proprietary document. This document
and all information contained herein is the sole property
of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are
granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure
of its content. This document shall not be reproduced
or disclosed to a third party without the express written
consent of AIRBUS S.A.S.
This document and its content shall not be used
for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied.
The statements made herein do not constitute an offer.
They are based on the mentioned assumptions
and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting
grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS
S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.
This brochure is printed on Stucco Old mill - Premium
white and Offset standard.
This paper is produced in factories that are accredited
EMAS and certified ISO 9001-14001, PEFC and FSC CoC.
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Global Market Forecast

Global Market Forecast

Global Market Forecast

Global Market Forecast

Global Market Forecast

Demand for air travel

Demand for freighters

Global Market Forecast

Passenger deliveries (>100 seats)

Freight traffic growth

Passenger & new freighter deliveries

Global Market Forecast

Passenger traffic growth next 20 years

5.2% 4.2% 4.7%

TRAFFIC WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 15 YEARS

ICAO total traffic

Airbus GMF 2014

Air traffic has doubled

Air traffic will double

* Revenue Passenger Kilometres

Global Market Forecast

Global Market Forecast

SINGLE-AISLE: 70% OF UNITS; WIDE-BODIES: 55% OF VALUE

DEMAND FOR OVER 31,350 NEW AIRCRAFT

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

Passenger and freighter aircraft

Global Market Forecast

NEW AIRCRAFT DEMAND PASSENGER AND FREIGHTER

Most deliveries to go to Asia Pacific,

DEMAND FOR MORE THAN 31,000 NEW AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES

1,555 passenger aircraft will be

North America to take most freighters,

Mid-size freighter deliveries are the heart

Global Market Forecast

Global Market Forecast

Key drivers for air traffic growth:

Economic growth rates in emerging regions/

Emerging markets do not only include Asia/

International tourist arrivals (million)

Global Market Forecast

Global Market Forecast

GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS TO MORE THAN DOUBLE

THE WORLD IS MORE URBANISED

Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus

Source: UN population division, Airbus

Europe & CIS

Middle class as % of world population

MORE AND MORE AIR PASSENGERS ORIGINATING FROM EMERGING COUNTRIES

Share of international trips tickets issued in emerging countries

Global Middle Class*

*Households with daily

Global Market Forecast

Global Market Forecast

MOST OF THE NETWORK FRAGMENTATION IS DRIVEN BY LCCS

Evolution of number of routes, 1995-2013, Index 100=1995

Much of the fragmentation has been driven

The share of traffic on these routes is now stable,

The network is constantly evolving but 40% of

CODE SHARE GENERALISATION

Code share flights

Source: OAG, September month

Massive amount of traffic carried through

Mega-cities are the home for larger aircraft.

Global Market Forecast

Most deliveries to go to Asia Pacific,

1,555 passenger aircraft will be

North America to take most freighters,

Mid-size freighter deliveries are the heart

Economic growth rates in emerging regions/

Emerging markets do not only include Asia/

Much of the fragmentation has been driven

The share of traffic on these routes is now stable,

The network is constantly evolving but 40% of

Massive amount of traffic carried through

Mega-cities are the home for larger aircraft.

Worldwide average load factor ~80%,

Aviation remains resilient

Airlines in the Asia/Pacific