Adhvaryu - 2010 - Enhancing Urban Planning Using Simplified Models SIMPLAN For Ahmedabad, India

Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207
www.elsevier.com/locate/pplann
Enhancing urban planning using simplified models:

SIMPLAN for Ahmedabad, India
Bhargav Adhvaryu
Department of Architecture and Churchill College, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
Abstract
Urban planners are faced with the decision of what planning policy to pursue in order to achieve the best possible future. Many
cities in developed nations use comprehensive models that simulate various aspects of the urban system, capable of predicting
implications of a given set of policy inputs, to assist the planning process. However, in developing countries, demographic and
socioeconomic data with appropriate spatial disaggregation are difficult to obtain. This constrains the development of such
comprehensive urban models to support planning decisions. In the absence of models, the plan-making process usually inclines
towards a more intuitive approach.
Using simplified urban models adapted to the data constraints, this paper explores the prospects of enhancing
planning in developing countries, with the aim of shifting the plan-making process from being purely intuitive towards
being more scientific. The SIMPLAN (SIMplified PLANning) modelling suite has been developed for the case study city of
Ahmedabad, India (the calibration per se is not discussed) to test alternative urban planning policies (combinations for land
use and transport) for the year 2021. Model outputs are evaluated for key economic, environmental and social indicators. It
should be noted that such a research study, in the context of developing countries, represents a first generation of studies/
models, owing to the simplicity of the model structure and its accompanying limitations and data availability constraints. The
modelling framework developed in this study has a visually driven user interface. This makes the model easy to understand,
operate and update. Due to this attribute, it allows local planning authorities to carry out testing of several alternative planning
policies themselves, without having the need to outsource modelling work to private consulting firms, usually at much higher
cost.
Key model outputs indicate that dispersing cities proves to be economically beneficial to society as a whole. Compact
development may prove to be better in terms of environmental and social aspects, but it may be possible to tackle the undesirable
effects of dispersal by appropriate combinations of planning and management measures. The modelling outputs informed the wider
debate on compact vs. dispersed urban forms. It was shown that neither of these diametrically opposite forms provide an outright
winwin solution. They are likely to perform differently in different economies and sociocultural contexts. Therefore, it would
appear that each city needs to test out the pros and cons of such alterative urban planning policies before pursing a plan for the future.
Learning from such modelling exercises, cities can prepare their own tailor-made policy that best satisfies their objectives, making
the planning process more rigorous and transparent.
# 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Urban planning; Urban modelling; Land usetransport interaction (LUTI) modelling; Urban form; Compact city; Dispersed city;
Developing countries; Ahmedabad; India
E-mail address: ba247@yahoo.com.

0305-9006/$ see front matter # 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.progress.2009.11.001
114
B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Paper outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Context of developing countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1. Urban development and planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.2. Overview of urbanisation: India, Gujarat and Ahmedabad . . . . . . .
2.3. Background of planning in the Indian context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.4. The need and relevance of this study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
General introduction of the case study city of Ahmedabad . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1. Location, topography and climate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.2. History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.3. Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.4. Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Introduction to modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.1. Definition and types of models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.1.1. Descriptive models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.1.2. Explanatory models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.1.3. Predictive models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.2. Descriptive conceptual models of spatial organisation of land uses.
4.2.1. Concentric zone theory (1925) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.2.2. Sector theory (1939) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.2.3. Multiple-nuclei theory (1945) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.2.4. Application to Ahmedabad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.3. Explanatory analytical models of location and land use . . . . . . . .
4.3.1. Isolated state (1826) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.3.2. Industrial location theory (1909) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.3.3. Central place theory (1933) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.3.4. Urban bid-rent theory (1964) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4. Introduction to LUTI models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4.1. The land usetransport relationship. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4.2. The Lowry model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4.3. The MEPLAN model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4.4. The TRANUS model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4.5. The DELTA model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4.6. A brief discussion on LUTI models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
SIMPLAN model: a brief introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Development of alternative policies for the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.2. Key modelling inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.3. Trend policy 2021 (TR21) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.3.1. TR21 land use inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.3.2. TR21 transport inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.4. Compaction policy 2021 (CC21) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.4.1. CC21 land use inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.4.2. CC21 transport inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.5. Dispersal policy 2021 (DS21) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.5.1. DS21 land use inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.5.2. DS21 transport inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Summary of modelling outputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.1. Land use outputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.2. Transport outputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sensitivity analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8.1. Variation in dwellings and employment allocation . . . . . . . . . . . .
8.2. Variation in income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Assessment of alternative planning policies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.1. Economic assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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10.
11.
9.1.1. Housing and work travel costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9.1.2. Consumer and producer surplus in housing rent . . . . .
9.1.3. Consumer surplus in transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.1.4. Estimates of costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.1.5. Summary of benefits and costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.2. Environmental assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.2.1. Resources: new land required for residential use . . . .
9.2.2. Emissions: vehicular CO2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.3. Social aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.3.1. Mix of socioeconomic groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.3.2. Social equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.3.3. Accessibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.4. Sensitivity analysis: assessment summary of other alternatives.
9.5. A discussion on assessment matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.6. Conclusions on assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Feedback . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1. Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1.1. Summary of key feedback and responses . . . . . . . . .
10.2. SIMPLAN application to DP making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.3. SIMPLAN simplifications and its application limitations. . . . .
Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11.1. On alternative urban forms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11.2. On the model structure and operationality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11.3. On the context of developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11.4. Summary of key research findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11.5. Suggestions for further research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11.6. A final note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1. Paper outline
This paper begins by looking at urban development
and planning in the context of developing countries and
how it differs from developed countries. An overview of
urbanisation is presented, followed by the background
of planning in the Indian context. Following from this,
the necessity of the study is established. A general
introduction to the case study city of Ahmedabad is
presented. Since this recommends the use of models to
assist planning, a general introduction to models is
presented, followed by an introduction to land use
transport interaction (LUTI) models. A brief introduction to a simplified modelling suite called SIMPLAN
(SIMplified PLANning) is provided. However, its
calibration is a separate topic and is being considered
for a shorter paper, and it is therefore not discussed here.
Alternative urban planning policies for a future year
(2021) are then discussed and tested using SIMPLAN.
A summary of modelling outputs is presented, followed
by an assessment of alternative urban planning policies,
including a section on sensitivity testing. The approach
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203
developed in this study was presented to local authority

planners and decision makers in Ahmedabad. Their
feedback is provided, along with the applications for
enhancing plan making. Suggestions for further
research as presented, followed by overall conclusions.
All sections in the paper are based on the authors
doctoral work (Adhvaryu, 2009).
2. Context of developing countries
2.1. Urban development and planning
Urbanisation and urban growth (or development) are
often considered synonymous. However, there is an
important distinction. Urbanisation refers to the
relative concentration of people living in urban areas
(in a region) compared to the total population. For
example, in 2001 the total population in India was 1.029
billion, of which 0.286 billion lived in urban areas, i.e.
28% urbanisation. Urban growth refers to the absolute
increase in the physical size and population of an urban
area (Potter, 1992). Urban growth is thus the combined
116
effect of net urban migration, natural increase, and

geographical expansion of an urban area. In this sense,
urban migration may be associated with urbanisation.
Thus, urban growth and urbanisation are linked, i.e.
urbanisation is one of the three major components of
urban growth (Jacquemin, 1999).
Jacquemin (1999) argues that there is a difference
between the urban growth process in the western world
and in developing countries, which could be attributed
mainly to the difference in the demand and supply of
urban labour, and the overall population growth. In the
western world, urbanisation was a direct product of the
gradual process (over a century) of industrialisation and
economic development. On the other hand, in developing countries, urbanisation is only partly the result of
industrialisation and economic growth. In addition, it is
taking place over a much shorter period, making the
pace of growth comparatively rapid. Other key
contributing factors to urbanisation are the unfillable
expectations of rural people migrating to cities to escape
poverty, and the lack of opportunities. The recent World
development report 2009 (World Bank, 2008) confirms
that the absolute numbers of people being added to the
urban population of todays developing countries are
much larger, even compared to the recently industrialised nations such as the Republic of Korea, Taiwan and
China.
Beier (1976) argues that the rapid growth of urban
population in developing countries is most likely to be
accommodated by expanding existing urban areas
rather than by creating new settlements. This can be
supported by looking at more recent data. For example,
the concentration of population in cities over one
million in developing countries rose from 18% to 28%
from 1950 to 2005, and the population in these cities
increased at a staggering rate of 4.7% per annum
(calculated from United Nations, 2006). This clearly
shows that one million plus cities are where most of the
urban growth is taking place. Gilbert and Gugler (1992)
conclude that most Third World countries have been
transformed from rural to urban societies in two or three
decades, with larger cities even doubling in size every
15 yearsa phenomenon fuelled by changes in the
countryside, high rates of fertility, falling death rates,
and rapid city-ward migration.
The rapid growth of urban areas in developing
counties has brought serious problems, such as overcrowding, poor housing conditions, inadequate social,
urban and transport infrastructure services, environmental degradation, and unemployment and poverty.
These problems are not new to the developed world
they were and still are facing these problems. However,
what is new and different in developing countries is that

its magnitude has been significant, owing to dramatic
growth and population increase since the 1950s
(Jacquemin, 1999). One of the key problems generally
identified as being different in developing countries is
the lack of sufficient absorptive capacity of the urban
economy in relation to the increase in the number of
potential job seekers. The emergence of the informal
sector in developing countries could be attributed to the
mismatch between the number of potential job seekers
and the number of formal jobs in the economy.
There are two contrasting ways of looking at this.
One school of thought argues that since urban growth
produces undesirable side-effects and raises questions
about the absorptive capacity of urban areas, strategies
should be geared towards agricultural self-reliance,
rural new town development, zero urban growth, and
even deurbanisation (Jacquemin, 1999). Others argue
that, in essence, cities exist because of their ability to
offer competitive advantage for industrial production
and economies of scale associated with increasing
urban size. For example, Alonso (1968) argues that
there are good grounds for believing in increasing
returns to urban size. Therefore, they conclude that,
despite the disadvantages of urban growth, it is
preferable to have it, from both an economic and a
social development perspective. Herbert (1979), in the
context of urban development in the Third World,
emphasises that individuals find cities attractive for
many reasons, such as greater employment and
education opportunities and a wider range of amenities
and opportunities for social interaction than that found
in rural areas. The World Bank (2008) argues that
denser concentrations of economic activity (i.e., cities)
increase choice and opportunity, ensuring greater
market potential for the exchange of goods, services,
information and factors of production. This author also
subscribes to the view that since cities or urban
agglomerations offer several economic and social
advantages, instead of preventing them from growing
further, the emphasis should be on how to create wellplanned cities and how to manage and absorb new
growth in a sustainable manner.
Increasing the absorptive capacity of urban areas
must be tackled at two levels: urban planning policy
(i.e., city level) and national development policy
(Cohen, 1976). Of course, planning is only one of
the ways to address this issue and, obviously, what could
be achieved in the longer run by urban planning policies
is tied up with the broader aspects of regional and
national economic development policies. As Todaro
(1979) argues, rather than devising ways to better
accommodate the growing population, government

policy needs to focus on economic opportunity, by
stressing a realistic combination of rural development
and dispersed urbanisation strategy.
At the level of a city, on absorptive capacity, Beier
(1976) maintains that land for settling the new people
would be crucial, wherein land use zoning regulations
tend to play a key role. It has been observed that without
control of land and its uses, existing patterns would
perpetuate, to the extent of threatening the political and
social stability of the city. Thus, it is important to have
land use zoning regulations that accommodate the needs
of the poor, rather than excluding them and further
aggravating the problem. On transportation, Beier (1976)
argues that journeys to work become longer as the city
grows and the costs of these journeys become prohibitive
for the very poor, who cannot afford to locate near to
where the jobs are, thus placing them at a locational
disadvantage and excluding them from the labour market.
Of course, solutions have to be catered to individual cities,
but it is clear that developing countries cannot afford to
follow spatial patterns and capital-intensive mass
transport facilities (e.g., subways) like developed
countries. Jobs and residential locations will have to be
contiguous and the appropriate pattern may well be cities
with multiple centres. For example, Shanghai, China,
ever since the first Metropolitan Plan in 1927, was
planned as a metropolitan city with only one centre, with
industry and housing closely located, often in inner-city
areas. However, the monocentric city became impractical
with population growth in Shanghai, and the Shanghai
Metropolitan Government has increasingly sought to set
up alternative commercial and industrial districts and
residential towns and suburbs (Abelson, 2000).
In the context of mid- or intermediate-sized cities
(say, population ranging from one to 10 million) in
developing countries, Rivkin (1976) argues that these
cities have peculiar characteristics such as: (a) rapid
population growth, (b) presence of growing industrial
processing activities, (c) increasing modernisation (e.g.,
automobiles, multi-storeyed buildings and supermarkets), and (d) threat to environmental ambience. It is
these characteristics that jolt the traditional land use
patterns and physical form and hence require land use
control. He goes on to argue that the problems faced by
such cities, namely inadequate open space, uncoordinated utilities provision, resolving competition amongst
land uses, land speculation, traffic congestion, undesirable densities, and so on, must be tackled at the level of
the city itself. Solutions to such problems cannot be
afterthoughts or subsidiary concerns within a national/
regional planning framework.
117
It is clear from the above discussion that the

scholarly literature on urbanisation and urban development in developing countries acknowledges that
urban planning policy can indeed play an important role
in addressing the problems arising due to rapid
urbanisation. It is beyond the scope of this paper to
look into the broader aspects of national economic
development policies that can effectively be used to
address the urbanisation issue. Nonetheless, what is
within the scope of this paper is to look at urban policy
measures that could be interwoven into the city
planning process. For example, United Nations
(1970) indicate that the sharpest and most complex
conflicts arise in towns and cities lacking comprehensive development plans that can harmonise the various
demands on space, relate land development to transport,
provide public facilities (or at least ensure there is space
for them), and integrate the man-made and natural
environments. Rivkin (1976) argues that developing
nations should be encouraged to develop their own
urban research institutions and to direct the analytical
and data-gathering activities of university faculties
towards building a better understanding of the social,
economic and physical characteristics of urban areas.
He further argues that there are practically no empirical
materials extant that assess the effectiveness of different
approaches or techniques of land control in developing
countries. There is little material on identifying the
results of a process and comparing those results with
initial (planning) objectives. There is nothing, save
impressionistic assessment, to provide guidance for a
country or community preparing to establish new, or
revise old, measures.
2.2. Overview of urbanisation: India, Gujarat and
Ahmedabad
Over the past three decades or so, the rate of
urbanisation in India has been much higher than that in
the UK or the US, and second only to China (see Fig. 1).
Table 1 gives the total and urban population in India
from 1901 to 2001 (and projections up to 2016). The
annual growth rate of the total population in India in the
last five decades up to 2001 has been 2.1%. Even more
dramatic has been the grown in urban population, which
in this period is around 3.1% per annum. The level of
urbanisation in India has been consistently rising and is
expected to continue thus (second only to China). The
rate of urbanisation compared to developed countries
may seem low, but the absolute numbers of people
living in urban areas in India is rather staggering. For
example, the 286.1 million people living in urban areas
118
Fig. 1. Percentage of urban population.
and 20% to 3%, respectively, while the decline for

Class VI cities was the steepest from 6% to 0.3%. This
clearly shows the importance of larger cities and their
growth potential.
Urbanisation trends in Gujarat State (see Fig. 2) are
comparable to India. For example, the annual growth
rate of the total population in Gujarat in the last four
decades up to 2001 has been 2.3% (as against 2.1% in
India) and the annual grown rate of the urban population
during the same period has been 3.2% (as against 3.3%
in India). However, in terms of the level of urbanisation,
Gujarat stands much higher than India. From 1961 to
in India in 2001 is even higher than the total population

of the US in 2000 (US Census Bureau, 2001), which
was 281.4 million.
The other interesting phenomenon is the growth
differential of different cities in India. Urban areas in
India are divided into six classes (see Table 2). In
1901, 26% of the urban population was living in
Class I cities, which grew to around 68% in 2001,
whereas for Classes II and III it has remained fairly
constant (in the range of 10% to 11% and 12% to 16%,
respectively). For Classes IV and V, the proportion of
urban population had declined from around 21% to 7%
Table 1
Urbanisation trends in India 19012001.
Year
Total population
Urban population
% Urban population
Millions
Annual growth rate (%)
Millions
Annual growth rate (%)
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
238.4
252.1
251.3
279.0
318.7
361.1
439.2
548.2
683.3
846.3
1,028.7
0.56
0.03
1.05
1.34
1.26
1.98
2.24
2.23
2.16
1.96
25.9
25.9
28.1
33.5
44.2
62.4
78.9
109.1
159.5
217.6
286.1
0.04
0.80
1.77
2.81
3.52
2.37
3.29
3.87
3.16
2.75
10.8
10.3
11.2
12.0
13.9
17.3
18.0
19.9
23.3
25.7
27.8
2006
2011
2016
1,094.1
1,178.9
1,263.5
0.63
0.75
0.70
332.1
377.1
425.4
1.53
1.28
1.21
30.0
32.0
34.0
Data source: Census (1991) for 19011991; Census (2001b) for 2001; Census (2001c) for 20062016 projections (shown in italics).
119
Table 2
Distribution of urban population in Indian cities.
Year
1901
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
Class of city
I
100,000 plus
population (%)
II
50,00099,999
population (%)
III
20,00049,999
population (%)
IV
10,00019,999
population (%)
V
5,0009,999
population (%)
VI
Below 5,000
population (%)
Total (%)
26.0
44.6
51.4
57.3
60.6
65.3
68.3
11.3
10.0
11.2
10.9
11.6
10.9
9.6
15.6
15.7
16.9
16.0
14.3
13.2
12.4
20.8
13.6
12.8
10.9
9.5
7.8
6.9
20.1
13.0
6.9
4.5
3.6
2.6
2.6
6.1
3.1
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Data source: Compiled from Gurumukhi (n.d.) and Jacquemin (1999).
2001, the percentage of urban population grew from

25.8% to 37.4% as against 18.0% to 27.8% in India.
Gujarat is undoubtedly one of the most rapidly
urbanising states in India.
Gujarat has 25 districts, of which Ahmedabad District
(area of 8087 km2) has the highest population (5.81
million in 2001). The annual growth rate of total
population for Ahmedabad District from 1961 to 2001
was 2.7% and the annual growth rate for urban population
was 3.2%. Urbanisation in Ahmedabad District stood at
65.9% in 1961, which rose to 80.1% in 2001. The
population in the Ahmedabad urban agglomeration (an
area of about 600 km2, covering the main city and
peripheral areas) rose from 3.31 million in 1991 to 4.69
million in 2001 (at an annual rate of 3.5%). Considering
only the population of the Ahmedabad Municipal

Corporation (area 191 km2), it rose from 2.88 million
in 1991 to 3.52 million in 2001, at an annual rate of 2%. In
terms of population, the Ahmedabad urban agglomeration ranks seventh in India, and Ahmedabad Municipal
Corporation ranks sixth. The pace of growth of the
Ahmedabad urban agglomeration is staggering and
typifies a rapidly growing urban area in India.
2.3. Background of planning in the Indian context
In general, the goals of planning human settlements
are well established. Broadly speaking, these are
protecting the environment and achieving economic
efficiency and social equity. In order to assess whether a
Fig. 2. Location of Ahmedabad.
120
plan would be able to achieve its desired goals, it is

necessary to forecast the implications of a proposed
plan. In the context of an urban area, at the very least,
this would entail having an idea of the spatial
distribution of population and employment and its
interaction for the horizon year in question.
Planning in the context of mid-sized Indian cities is
generally driven by a development plan (DP). The DP
sets out the course of development for the next 10 years,
in accordance with the town planning act prevailing in
the state, and has a specific set of objectives. On the land
use side, the DP generally prescribes broad-brush
maps for land use zoning, in which uses like residential,
commercial, industrial, etc. are specified. In addition,
development control regulations are also specified,
relating to plot coverage (or margins) and the height and
bulk of buildings. On the transport side, road-widening
proposals (if any) are formulated and the future citylevel road network is specified, along with the tentative
alignment of roads and their total widths (rights of way).
Other aspects of DP include specifying augmentations
to the underground infrastructure, such as water supply,
sewerage and drainage, and specifying civic amenities.
Special interest areas such as environmental and
heritage conservation and tourism development may
also be incorporated in the DP if relevant.
The next level of planning after the DP generally has
two approaches to managing new growth in urban areas. In
the first approach, planning authorities acquire agricultural and undeveloped land by buying from the owners at
prevailing agricultural land prices in large quantities, and
re-plan them in an appropriate mannercalled the land
acquisition method. In the second approach, called the
land readjustment and pooling method, instead of
acquiring land from owners, land is brought together by
pooling it from a group of owners and then the area is
planned by readjusting and reshaping the land parcels so
as to provide regular shapes to original plots and to use a
portion of the land for roads, civic infrastructure and
public amenities. The key advantages of the second
method are that the original owners are not displaced and,
more importantly, the increment in land value accrues to
the owners whenever the land is sold and developed for
urban use, unlike the first method. In addition, since the
role of the government is more that of a facilitator, it is less
likely to be prone to corrupt practices, compared to the
land acquisition method (Ballaney, 2008).
Returning to the method of DP making, it uses
models for forecasting population and the future
population becomes the key basis for formulating
proposals in the DP. For example, the Draft Development Plans for Ahmedabad (AUDA, 1988, 1997) use an
average of conversion factor method, compound

interest method, and Binomial expansion method for
estimating population by zones over a 20-year period.
Further to this, based on a rather arbitrary choice of
threshold densities for various sub-regions, land
requirements for residential use are calculated, followed
by formulating land use proposals.
One of the key regulations that controls the intensity of
development, the floor space index (FSI, which is the
ration of total built-up area to plot area, also known as
floor area ration (FAR) in some countries), is almost
uniform across the city (or in some cases it may have two
grades). Regardless of whether the land is centrally
located and/or has high transport accessibility or is
located at the periphery of the city, the intensity of
development permissible is nearly the same. It seems
rather difficult to achieve the objective of, for example,
compact development with a blanket-type FSI regulation. In addition, the problem with this is that it does not
respond to the demands of the real estate market. In other
words, stipulating uniform low densities across the city is
likely to create land scarcity and force unauthorised
development on the periphery and on marginal lands
that are unsafe, such as hillsides, flood-prone valley
floors, river banks, etc. (Byahut & Parikh, 2006).
This author believes that there is also a further
problem that could be identified with the current
method, which is lack of clarity as to how the final land
use plan is arrived at. Seminal textbooks in planning
dating back over four decades or so prescribe that a
planning exercise has several steps between decision to
plan and goal formulation to production of the final
plan. For example (see Fig. 3(a) and (b)) both emphasise
that a final plan should be generated from assessing a set
of alternative plans, which are tested using some form of
quantitative techniques. To date, this approach continues to be emphasised. For example, Healey (2007),
studying conceptual development and the practical
implications of spatial strategies in European cities, and
using the example of the Cambridge sub-region,
emphasises the role of development of options for
future growth in spatial planning and strategy formulation (example from Cambridge Futures, 1999) and
Webster (2010), in the context of accessible urban form,
emphasises that if such accessibility within a master
plan could be priced, its designers could more readily
maximise the value of the plan and weigh objectively
between alternative designs. With regard to the Indian
DP-making practice, there does not seem to be any
explicit mention of alternative plans or policies and how
these are assessed in order to arrive at the final plan. In
addition, as Byahut and Parikh (2006) point out, there
121
Fig. 3. Scientific approach to planning.

Source: (a) Chapin (1965, Figure 36, p. 458); (b) Chadwick (1971, Figure 12.1, p. 279).
are problems in the content of the Ahmedabad

Development Plan itself, which are only regulatory in
nature and do not translate into projects, and therefore
many of the intentions of these plans remain unrealised.
In general, it seems that there does not appear to be a
consistent theoretical and analytical framework within
which planning decisions are being made. Rather, they
appear to be piecemeal and ad hoc in nature, without
proper justification. In other words, the decisions appear
to be generally driven by political interests and seem to
reflect a map of influences from pressure groups of
various sorts. Exploring urban and regional policy
issues in developing countries, Chatterjee (1983) argues
that the practical consequences of the lack of interaction
between the political and scientific communities have
been particularly severe in developing countries. She
asserts that the gap between the two has increased rather
than decreased over the years.
2.4. The need and relevance of this study
Over the last four to five decades or so, many theories
of how land use is organised over space, embedded in a
microeconomic framework, have been propounded.

Using these theories as building blocks, many models
for simulating urban development have been developed
in the developed world. Such models essentially
simulate where urban land uses would tend to locate
over space as a function of transport accessibility (or
costs), a set of user preferences, and development
constraints. Further to this, land usetransport interaction models have also been developed, which actively
consider the feedback from transport to land use and
vice versa.
Some LUTI models available commercially are also
used to test policy alternatives (i.e., alternative future
scenarios, such as compact development or dispersed
development or major transport improvement projects,
or combinations thereof) by governments in developed
countries. Alternative scenarios of supply of housing
and employment, land and transport are fed as inputs to
a LUTI model. Based on the behavioural assumptions of
how households and firms locate, a LUTI model
simulates the likely distribution of land uses for a future
year and produces transport outputs for all origins and
destinations, such as modal split, average trip costs, trip
122
lengths, passenger-kilometre travelled, and network

flows and congestion. Since all outputs are quantified,
they can be systematically evaluated against economic,
environmental and social indicators, leading to an
overall assessment of the alternatives, which are used to
support the plan-making and policy-formulation process.
However, developing a full-fledged LUTI model to
support planning decisions in the context of developing
countries is generally reported to have been constrained
by the non-availability of spatially disaggregated land
use data. Furthermore, no visible attempt is being made
to collect relevant land use and transport data in this
regard (Srinivasan, 2005). Chatterjee and Nijkamp
(1983) have argued that while models and techniques
for urban and regional analysis have been fruitfully used
to fit quantitative data to urban social, political,
economic, and geographic theories in the advanced
economies, they have much less applicability in
developing countries. They maintain that the key
reasons for this are: (a) huge quantity of data required
for validating models; (b) type and quality of data; and
(c) prohibitive data collection costs. The results of
applications of models for planning purposes in
developing countries have been generally mediocre.
This is not to say that such constraints should be a
deterrent to developing models and analytical techniques for planning in developing countries. As Echenique (1983) points out, in cases of no or limited
availability of data, simple and robust models could be
built, followed by collecting essential data for them.
Molai and Vanderschuren (2003), based on their
experience of developing a (land usetransport) model
for Cape Town, South Africa, argue that models from
developed countries are not likely to be adopted (to
developing countries) in their present form, due to
different socioeconomic and environmental contexts.
The key is thus to ascertain the degree of simplicity and
adaptability required for the development and application of models. To this end, in this study a simplified
urban modelling framework has been developed for the
case study city of Ahmedabad. The scope of this
framework is informed by the literature review of
prevailing academic wisdom and practical knowledge
and its applicability to the case study city.
Current research efforts in the Indian context need to
focus on deepening the understanding of the nature of
urban development and the impact of current policies on
it, both from a spatial and socioeconomic perspective.
Hence, some form of quantitative planning framework
needs to be developed which entails (a) use of simple
and robust descriptive and predictive models, and (b) a
framework for assessing planning policy alternatives,

which could then be compared with the current
approach. A clear understanding of the implications
of alternative plans to the policy makers is crucial.
While developing a model for Cape Town, Molai and
Vanderschuren (2003) argue that there is a pressing
need for models, particularly for developing countries,
that answer what if questions about land use and
transport systems and address important policy concerns of relevance to both planners and the public. In the
Indian context, a possible application could be
developing a modelling framework for plan making
and policy formulation that can answer the what if
questions, similar to the one developed in this study,
which also helps inform the debate on alternative urban
forms.
Lastly, it is important for researchers to interact
closely with practitioners to obtain feedback on the
potential applicability and usability of new approaches
that are likely to affect the practice of plan making. To
this end, a series of meetings and presentations to
government planners and decision makers were conducted in the case study city to obtain their feedback.
In a nutshell, this study attempts to demonstrate how
a theoretically consistent analytical framework can be
developed with due regard to both data and resource
constraints and used to assist in plan making, thereby
enhancing current practice, serving as a reasonable
justification to support the need and relevance for such a
study.
3. General introduction of the case study city of
Ahmedabad
3.1. Location, topography and climate
Ahmedabad is located at 23.03N 72.58E on the
banks of Sabarmati river in the state of Gujarat in
western India (see Fig. 2). The city is divided by the
river into two physically distinct eastern and western
regions. The old city (also known as the walled city) is
on the eastern bank of the river and is predominantly
characterised by row houses (sharing common walls,
also known as terraced houses) along the streets.
Ahmedabad is 53.0 m above the mean sea level, with a
relatively flat topographythe range between highest
and lowest point being 4.27 m. Ahmedabad is in a hot
and arid region, with summer highs of around 44 8C
and winter low of around 7 8C. The average rainfall,
based on the past 46 years of data (19612006), is
791 mm, with an average of 38 rain days per year
(AMC, 2007).
3.2. History
Archaeological evidence suggests that the area
around Ahmedabad has been inhabited since the 11th
century, when it was known as Ashaval or Ashapalli. At
that time, Karandev I, the Solanki ruler of Anhilwara
(modern Patan, which is the capital city of Patan
District, is north of Ahmedabad District), waged a
successful war against the Bhil king of Ashaval and
established a city called Karnavati, located at the
present area of Maninagar, close to the Sabarmati river.
Solanki rule lasted until the 13th century, when Gujarat
came under the control of the Vaghela dynasty of
Dholka (in the southern part of Ahmedabad District)
and Karnavati was conquered by the Sultanate of Delhi.
In 1411, the rule of Sultan Ahmed Shah of the
Muzaffarid dynasty (which ruled Gujarat from 1391 to
1583) was established, which is how the city got its
current name (the word abad means founded or
populated). In 1487, Mahmud Begada, the grandson of
Ahmed Shah, fortified the city with an outer wall 10 km
(six miles) in circumference. The area enclosed within it
is what is now known as the walled city. The Muzaffarid
dynastys rule in Ahmedabad ended in 1573, when
Gujarat was conquered by the Mughal emperor Akbar.
During the Mughal reign, Ahmedabad became one of
the empires thriving centres of trade, mainly in textiles,
which were exported as far as Europe. Ahmedabad
remained the provincial headquarter of the Mughals
until 1758, when the Mughals surrendered the city to the
Marathas. The Marathas form an Indo-Aryan group of
Hindu warriors hailing mostly from the present-day
state of Maharashtra (south of Gujarat), who created the
expansive Maratha Empire, covering a major part of
India (north and central regions), in the late 17th and
18th centuries. During the Maratha governance, the city
lost some of its past glory and was at the centre of
contention between two Maratha clansthe Peshwa of
Poona (also written as Pune, a city in Maharashtra about
120 km south-east of Mumbai) and the Gaekwad of
Baroda (a city in Gujarat about 100 km south-east of
Ahmedabad). The British East India Company took
over the city in 1818 as part of the British conquest of
India. A military cantonment was established in 1824
and a municipal government in 1858.
Indias movement of independence (from British
rule) developed strong roots in Ahmedabad when
Mahatma Gandhi established two ashrams (the
Kochrab Ashram near Paldi and the Satyagraha
Ashram, now known as the Sabarmati Ashram) on
the banks of Sabarmati river during 19151917. Both
these Ashrams became centres of intense nationalist
123
activities. Following independence and the partition of

India in 1947, the city was scarred by intense
communal violence that broke out between Hindus
and Muslims. Unfortunately, to date this tension still
exists in the city and occasionally erupts in the form of
violence and rioting.
In 1960, the Indian state of Bombay was split into
two statesMaharashtra and Gujarat. Ahmedabad was
selected to be the first capital of Gujarat. The capital
was shifted from Ahmedabad to Gandhinagar in 1971,
which was a new, planned city, set to rival the Le
Corbusier-planned Chandighar city in Punjab State,
North India. Today, Ahmedabad is very diverse in terms
of its built form. The walled city has most of the older
and heritage buildings, with great examples of beautiful
Islamic architecture. New and modern buildings occupy
most of the western part of the city, with buildings
designed by noted architects like Le Corbusier, Charles
Correa, and Louis Kahn.
3.3. Demographics
According to the 2001 census, the area under
Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation had a population of
3.5 million and the population of the Ahmedabad urban
agglomeration area was 4.5 million. Ahmedabad has a
literacy rate of nearly 80% (88% males and 71%
females), which is the highest in Gujarat. It is estimated
that around 440,000 people live in slums within the city.
The sex ratio (i.e., females to 1000 males) in 2001 was
885 (AMC, 2007).
3.4. Economy
In the 19th century, the textile and garments industry
received strong capital investment, with the first textile
mill being established in 1861. By 1905, there were
about 33 textile mills in the city, which soon came to be
known as the Manchester of the east. However, by the
1980s the textile mills had closed down, which marked
the end of an era of the industrys dominance in the
economy of Ahmedabad.
A sectoral shift was observed in Gujarat after
liberalisation of the economy in the early 1990s. A rapid
growth of chemical and pharmaceutical industries was
observed in that decade. The tertiary sector, which
includes business and commerce, transportation and
communication, construction, and other services, has
grown rapidly in the decade up to 2001 (with about 64%
of the jobs). This trend is continuing, with a rise in the
information technology industry in Ahmedabad. A
survey in 2002 on the super nine Indian destinations
124
for IT-enabled services ranked Ahmedabad fifth among

the top nine most competitive cities in the country.
4. Introduction to modelling
4.1. Definition and types of models
The word model is extensively used in both arts and
sciences. It has several meanings that vary, depending
on the context in which it is being used. Models can
range from physical objects to mathematical equations.
Regardless of the nature of the model and the context, it
would appear that the commonality in meaning is
abstraction of reality, with the aim of either better
understanding a real system or being able to predict its
behaviour.
Echenique (1972), Torrens (2000) and DfT (2005)
provide detailed descriptions of various types of model.
Based on these, this author has categorised models into
three main categories: descriptive, explanatory and
predictive, discussed in the following sections.
4.1.1. Descriptive models
Descriptive models aim to describe real-life situations by abstracting their key elements, leading to the
understanding of what it is. Torrens (2000) describes
these as basic models and categorises them into three
sub-categories. First are scaled or iconic models, which
are scaled-down versions of reality, usually without any
functional or predictive capacity. Essentially, they
differ from reality only in size (e.g., architectural
models of buildings). Second are analogue models, in
which size is transformed, but so are some of the
properties of the thing that is being modelled (e.g.,
maps, in which size is reduced, as with the scale model,
but also some of the features of real elements are
symbolised). Third are conceptual models, generally
attempting to express how we think a system works.
Usually, conceptual models are schematic representations or diagrams of a real-life system, using boxes and
arrows showing interrelationships between its various
elements or highlighting key elements (e.g., schematic
diagrams of a carbon cycle or a plant cell). If
appropriate, the word model in the context of
conceptual models could be used interchangeably with
theory. Some key conceptual urban models are
described in Section 4.2. Often, descriptive models
have a mathematical structure, in which case they could
be termed descriptive analytical models (e.g., density
gradients (Clark, 1951), dispersion index (Bertaud,
2001), and concentration/de-concentration measure
(SCATTER, 2005)).
4.1.2. Explanatory models

Explanatory models go a bit further than descriptive
models. In other words, they attempt to explain why it
is what it is. In this sense, these models could be termed
behavioural models (as against descriptive models,
which describe the end-state of a system rather than
the process responsible for italso sometimes known
as end-state models). Explanatory models try to
explain the phenomenon by transforming conceptual
understanding to mathematical symbology. Their aim is
to offer explanations as to why the phenomenon being
modelled is happening, by studying behavioural aspects
of the comments of a system under question (e.g., those
discussed in Section 4.3).
4.1.3. Predictive models
Predictive models are similar to explanatory models
in terms of having an explicit mathematical structure,
but they enable the testing of ideas by allowing
predictions to be made. It is obvious they build on
explanatory models and have active feedback loops for
various elements of the system being modelled. In this
sense, they are simulations of a system and output
effects given a set of stimuli (or course of action). These
can further be classified into two sub-categories. First
are conditional models (Echenique, 1972), wherein
cause and effect are modelled, i.e., if x occurs y must
follow (also termed as what if models). Second are
optimising models (DfT, 2005), which optimise urban
systems rather than predict their behaviour. Examples of
optimising-type LUTI models include TOPAZ (first
developed in 1970 in Australia by J.F. Brotchie, R.
Sharpe, and J.R. Roy) and SALOC (first developed in
1973 in Sweden by L.L. Lundqvist), see Webster and
Paulley (1990). Such models are intended as tools,
which can find an optimum design, as against
conditional models, which respond to a design input
by the user. Optimising models may be informative for
research and long-term planning, but in general they
require a substantial model development effort, in order
to link them to the practical planning problems of
individual cities or regions (DfT, 2005). Good examples
of predictive models are the land usetransport
interaction models, discussed in Section 4.4.
4.2. Descriptive conceptual models of spatial
organisation of land uses
Essentially, there are three main models or theories,
often referred to as human ecological theories, which
have been advanced to offer generic descriptions of how
urban land uses organise over space. These are the
125
invasion and succession. As the city grew and

developed over time, the CBD would exert pressure on
the zone immediately surrounding it (i.e., the zone of
transition). Outward expansion of the CBD would
invade nearby residential neighbourhoods, causing
them to move outward. The process was thought to
continue, with each successive neighbourhood moving
further from the CBD. Burgess suggested that inner-city
housing was largely occupied by immigrants and
households of low socioeconomic status. As the city
grew and the CBD expanded outward, lower status
residents moved to adjacent neighbourhoods, and more
affluent residents moved further from the CBD. A
noteworthy feature of this theory was that it observed a
positive correlation between income status and place of
residence, i.e., the more affluent households were
observed to live at greater distances from the CBD.
Fig. 4. Concentric zone theory.

Source: Burgess (1925).
concentric zone theory, the sector theory, and the

multiple-nuclei theory, which are discussed in the
following sections. The reviews of these theories are
drawn from Chapin (1965), Carter (1995), Harvey
(1996), and Torrens (2000), unless mentioned otherwise.
4.2.1. Concentric zone theory (1925)
In 1925, Ernest W. Burgess put forward the theory of
concentric zones (Burgess, 1925). Burgess theorised
that urban land use organises itself in concentric rings
around the central business district (CBD) (see Fig. 4),
with each ring having a different land use. This theory
was developed based on observations of the city of
Chicago from the 1980s to the early 20th century.
The CBD (Zone I) forms the core of the city because it
is the most accessible area and has shopping, offices,
hotels and restaurants, theatres, banks, etc. Encircling the
CDB is an area in transition, which is being invaded by
business and light manufacturing (Zone II). Zone III is
inhabited by workers in industries who have escaped
from the area of deterioration (Zone II) but who desire to
live within easy access of their work. Beyond this are
residential areas (Zone IV) of high-class apartment
buildings or of exclusive restricted districts of singlefamily dwellings. Still further, out beyond the city limits,
is the commuters zone (Zone V)suburban areas or
satellite citieswithin a 3060 min ride of the CBD.
The process of change in the spatial patterns of
residential areas was described as a process of
4.2.2. Sector theory (1939)

Homer Hoyt in 1939 proposed the sector theory,
primarily developed to describe the structure of
residential areas, by modifying the concentric zone
theory. Based on his study of rent patterns in 25 widely
distributed American cities, Hoyt concluded that land
uses tended to conform to a pattern of sectors rather than
concentric circles, i.e., a city expands essentially along
transport routes (railways and highways) in wedgeshaped sectors emanating from the CBD (see Fig. 5),
rather than in concentric circles.
The higher the accessibility of land, the higher would
be its rent. This meant that most of the commercial
functions would remain in the CBD, but some
manufacturing functions would develop in wedges
along the transport routes. Low-income households
would locate near the factories/manufacturing sector,
while middle- and high-income households would tend
to locate away from the factories. Hoyt observed that,
over time, high-income classes expanded outward from
the CBD along faster transport routes. In general, he
Fig. 5. Sector theory.
126
Fig. 6. Multiple-nuclei theory.
concluded that, rather than purely the distance from the

CBD, the accessibility of land was also an important
determinant of rent and hence land use. Hoyt, in a way,
further enhanced the distance from the centre element
of Burgess, by adding the directional element. Unlike
Burgess, Hoyt acknowledged that the distribution of
land uses has a strong relationship with transport
accessibility. In addition, Hoyts hypothesis allows for a
more irregular pattern of development, implying that
different parts of a city grow at different rates.
4.2.3. Multiple-nuclei theory (1945)
Harris and Ullman (1945) proposed the multiplenuclei theory, in which they theorised that many towns
and nearly all large cities did not grow simply around a
single CBD, but were, rather, formed by the progressive
integration of a number of separate centres (or nuclei).
Although they recognised that the CBD was a major
centre of commerce, they suggested that cells or clusters
of specialised activities (such as sectors 2, 6 and 7 in
Fig. 6) would develop according to specific requirements, different rent-paying abilities, and their agglomerative tendencies. At the centre is the CBD, with light
manufacturing and wholesaling located along transport
routes. Heavy industry was thought to locate near the
outer edge of the city, perhaps surrounded by lowerincome households, and suburbs of commuters and
smaller service centres would occupy the urban
periphery.
Harris and Ullman identified four factors responsible
for the emergence of sub-centres, as follows: (a)
interdependency amongst activities and the need to be
in close proximity; (b) natural clustering tendency,
which is mutually profitable (e.g., retail centres,
medical centres, etc.); (c) incompatibility of functions
and special area (land) requirements; and (d) high land
costs (or rents), which impacted the process of
nucleation.
The innovative thing about this theory was that it

recognised the fact that many cities tend to be
polycentric, and hence the traditional monocentric
models (e.g., concentric zone and sector theories) did
not explain the urban land use pattern in most large
cities. In addition, it goes further than the monocentric
models in recognising the fact that, apart from transport
accessibility, there are other factors that affect the
spatial distribution of urban land uses, such as
topography, special accessibility, and historical influences. It should be noted that the multiple-nuclei theory,
unlike the previous two theories (which described
changes in the basic arrangement of land use patterns),
describes the land use pattern at a particular point in
time.
4.2.4. Application to Ahmedabad
Carter (1995) argues that the key criticism of the
concentric zone theory is that it lacks universality and
may have been applicable to the American city of the
1920s. This author thinks that the concentric zone
theory is too simplistic and too limited in historical and
cultural application to lead to an understanding of land
use patterns of contemporary cities in developing
countries. As can be seen from Fig. 7, there is no
indication of formation of concentric zones in
Ahmedabad, as suggested.
On the other hand, as suggested by the sector theory,
the formation of wedges (or sectors) along transport
routes is abstractly evident for industrial areas (see
Fig. 7). Since commercial development is allowed along
roads 18.0 m or higher (see Fig. 8), strong formation of
commercial sectors is not evident, except for some
major concentrations in western Ahmedabad (Ashram
Road on the western riverbank and CG Road, which is
about one kilometre west of Ashram Road commercial
area). In recent times, another major commercial sector
has developed in western Ahmedabad, beyond the AMC
boundary (called SG Highway, see Fig. 15).
Residential use is spread all across the city, with
high-income households generally concentrated in the
western parts (not distinguished on the map)an
observation consistent with sector theorys view on
residential location. This author believes that, as
suggested by the sector theorythat distribution of
land uses has a strong relationship with transport
accessibilityit is quite plausible that this relationship
exists in cities in developing countries. Although sector
theorys application to Ahmedabad is fairly moderate, a
comprehensive study of a large number of cities in
developing countries needs to be undertaken, in order to
generalise its applicability to such cities.
127
Fig. 7. Land use map of AMC area.
As noted before, although the sector theory provides

a useful way of describing the evolution of patterns of
urban spatial structure, its ability to explain the land use
organisation of larger present-day cities, especially in
developing countries, appears to be limited. This is
because, although such urban areas have traditionally
had a centre, over the past few decades they have
exhibited a tendency towards a multiplicity of subcentres, like most metropolitan areas in the West. In this
sense, the multiple-nuclei theory appears to be the only
theoretical model that recognises this aspect of presentday larger cities. The key deviation predicted by the
multiple-nuclei theory, as against the concentric zones

and sector theories, is that major cities tend to have
multiple centresthis is rather true in the case of
Ahmedabad. In fact, jobs are scattered all over the city,
with higher concentrations in the CDB, and other
commercial areas forming sub-centres (see Fig. 15).
The general disadvantage of the conceptual models
discussed in this section is that they do not have an
explicit mathematical structure, and lack the behavioural explanation of their constituent elements.
Therefore, they cannot be applied to cities for analysing
the evolution of their spatial structure in order to
128
4.3.1. Isolated state (1826)

Johann Heinrich von Thunen in 1826 made the first
attempt to show the interlinkages between space and
economic activity. He developed a model that demonstrated how production cost and the cost of transporting
production to the market affects agricultural land use
(i.e., cropping pattern) in a region. Von Thunen assumes
an isolated agricultural region at the centre of which is a
single town. This town is the only market for the
agricultural produce. The soil is capable of cultivation
and has the same fertility throughout the region. The town
supplies the rural area with all the manufactured products
and in turn obtains all its provisions from the surrounding
countryside. The key questions the theory tries to answer
are: what pattern of cultivation will take place, given the
above assumptions? And, how will the farming system be
affected by its distance from the town?
Fig. 8. All roads with commercial development allowed.
provide a useful quantitative basis. To this end, as

mentioned before, descriptive analytical models, such
as density gradients (Clark, 1951), dispersion index
(Bertaud, 2001), and concentration/de-concentration
measure (SCATTER, 2005) could be used. These
models essentially use time-series population data by
spatial units of analysis (e.g., zones or census wards),
creating quantitative measure of the change in spatial
structure. The spatial structure of Ahmedabad has been
analysed using these three measures in a forthcoming
paper by this author and hence is not repeated here.
4.3. Explanatory analytical models of location and
land use
In Section 4.2, we looked at some key theories that
provided a generic picture of the effects of economic
forces in shaping the spatial structure of cities. Urban
economists have tried to present a more detailed
account of the effect of economic forces on location of
specific land uses in the context of a land market,
attempting to explain the phenomenon. The works of
four authors, namely von Thunen (1826), Weber (1909),
Christaller (1933), and Alonso (1964) are discussed in
the following sections, as their contributions could be
considered unprecedented, setting a sound foundation
for the development of more comprehensive models
over the years (such as the ones discussed in Section 4.4.
4.3.1.1. Concept of land rent. Von Thunen introduced

the concept of land rent, which was defined as the
portion of the farm revenue that is left after deduction of
the interest on the value of buildings, timber, fences and
other valuable objects separable from land, i.e., the
portion that is attributable to the land itself. Thus, land
rent is the surplus left after deduction of production
costs (i.e., sowing, cultivation, harvesting, administration, transport, interest on buildings, etc.). Land rent (or
surplus) for a particular crop being grown at a particular
location can be mathematically expressed as shown in
Eq. (1).
S q p c kt
(1)
where S is the land rent (or surplus) per unit of land; q is

the yield of crop per unit of land; p is the price of crop
fetched at the market per unit of weight; c is the
production cost per unit of weight; k is the transport
cost per unit of weight per unit of distance; t is the
distance from the town (or market).
If we take a hypothetical example of three crops, A,
B and C, each of these crops will have such an equation
of their own (see Fig. 9), which will be different based
on their yield and the price they fetch in the market. It
can be seen that from the town/market to tA, crop A will
be grown, as it fetches more land rent than any other
crop. From tA to tB, crop B offers highest land rent, and
hence it will be grown in this ring. Lastly, from tB
onwards, crop C will be grown similarly. It should be
noted that if two crops have the same yield, then the one
with the lower transport cost will be grown further away
from the town, and if the production costs of two crops
are the same, then the one with the lower yield will be
grown further away from the town.
Fig. 9. Land rent for various crops.
4.3.1.2. Pattern of cropping for the isolated state. Based on the actual data collected by von Thunen for a
period of five years for Tellow town in Germany, and
using the principle developed above, he calculates the
distances of the different rings around the town that will
grow the various types of crops as discussed below.
The first ring from the town (or the market) will have
crops that are perishable in nature (i.e., those that cannot
survive long journeys). Examples are cauliflower,
strawberries, lettuce, etc. Milk will also be produced
in this ring. It should be noted that no land would ever lie
fallow in this ring. It is profitable to get manure from the
town for these crops. However, as distance from the town
increases, a point is reached when the transport costs of
fetching the manure from the town are more than the cost
of producing manure in the farm. This point marks the
end of the first ring and the beginning of the second.
129
The second ring will have forestry, i.e., it will be

engaged in growing fuel wood.
The third, the fourth and the fifth rings will have
various types of grains grown using the crop alternation
system, the improved system, and the three-field
system, respectively.
The sixth ring will be used for stock farming,
breweries, etc., since no grain will be grown, as the land
rent here becomes zero.
In summary, since farmers would try to maximise
profit (which is essentially the market price minus the
production and transport costs), the most productive
activities (e.g., vegetables, milk, etc.) or activities
having high transport costs (e.g., firewood) would locate
near the market. The agricultural land use model thus
generated is shown in Fig. 10(a), while (b) illustrates the
effect of change in grain price on the sizes of the rings.
4.3.1.3. Comments. Von Thunens theory establishes
that land values will be highest at the centre of the town
and will decrease towards the periphery. Also, the
density or intensity of an activity will be higher near the
centre and will decrease towards the periphery. This
results in the most favourable land use pattern around an
isolated town, in the form of different economic
activities locating in concentric rings. Using the
introduction of highways and railways as an example
to signify the effect of improvements in transport, von
Thunen shows that the limits of the isolated state are
extended markedly, concluding that transport improvements have a vast effect on the welfare of a nation.
Although von Thunens model is for only agricultural
Fig. 10. Agricultural land use pattern and effect of grain price.
130
land, it can also be extended to urban land uses, as

shown by William Alonso (discussed in Section 4.3.4).
Comments on its application to Ahmedabad are
discussed in the same section, owing to the conceptual
similarities of von Thunens and Alonsos models.
4.3.2. Industrial location theory (1909)
Alfred Weber in 1909 explored the theoretical
aspects of location of a specific type of economic
activity, i.e., industries. He defined location factors as
those forces that operate as economic causes of
location. In other words, these factors can be seen as
an advantage gained by locating an economic activity at
a particular place rather than elsewhere.
4.3.2.1. Classification of location factors. Factors that
could be held responsible for location could be
categorised into two types: general factors, which are
those that apply to each and every industry, regardless of
their size or what they are manufacturing (e.g., cost of
transport, cost of labour, and rent) and special factors,
which are those that apply to only this or that type of
industry. They may be attributed to some peculiar
technical requirement of an industry (e.g., perishability
of materials, climatic requirements, specific inputs
requirements, such as fresh water, etc.).
All location factors, whether general or special, may
be classified further, based on the influence they
exercise, and distribute the industries regionally and
agglomerate (or deglomerate) industries within the
regional distribution. To distribute industries regionally
means to direct industries towards places that are
geographically determined and given, thus creating a
fundamental framework of industrial locations. To
agglomerate means to contract industry at certain points
within the regional framework. Of course, a third set of
location factors may also be thought to exist: natural
and technical factors, on the one hand, and social and
cultural factors, on the other.
4.3.2.2. Orientation of industry. Transport factors:
Weber analysed the location factors by first looking
at transport costs as the only influencing factor in the
location of an industry. In other words, it is possible to
find an optimum location with regard to transport costs,
to which an industry will be attracted. This forms the
basic network of industrial orientation created by the
first location factor, i.e., transport costs. This could be
explained by a simple example. Let M1 and M2 (see
Fig. 11) be raw material deposits, from which 0.7 and
0.3 tons of material are to be transported, respectively,
to the place of production. Assuming both raw materials
Fig. 11. Location of an industry in the location figure.
are of the pure type (the one that imparts its total
weight into the product), the weight to be transported
from the place of production to the place of
consumption is one ton. Weber here uses an analogy
from mechanics, in that the weights to be transported
are treated as weights hanging down from the three
corners of the location figure (the actual mechanical
device used is known as a Varigons frame). These
weights represent the force with which the corner of the
location figures will pull (or attract) the location
towards them in order to minimise transport costs. Thus,
the point at which the weights stabilise mathematically
represents the location, P, where production will take
place.
Labour and agglomeration factors: Having had the
location fixed based on least transport cost, the second
factor, i.e., labour cost, is then introduced. In doing so,
the deviation caused by introducing this factor is
examined to ascertain their combined effect. Finally,
agglomerative factors are considered, to arrive at the
final deviation. Such a method allows an elegant and
simple analysis of the factors of location and how they
would work when acting together.
4.3.2.3. Comments. Webers theory helps us understand how transport costs influence the location of an
industry. Based on the location of raw material deposits
and the place of consumption of a finished product, the
optimum location of an industry can be easily found
such that the overall transport costs are minimal. This
orientation may be attracted to other places, either by
cheaper availability of labour or cheaper production
costs, due to agglomeration of industries.
In general, this theory explains how industries locate
and move to different regions (or even countries) with
changes in availability of raw material and labour and in
the nature of coexistence of industries. Although this
theory is specific to a particular type of land use (i.e.,
industries), it provides a useful theoretical construct for
analysing and understanding the factors responsible for

the location of an industry. With regard to its application
to developing countries (in market-oriented economies), this theory does seem to have potential. However,
its application specifically to Ahmedabad requires
historical data at least after Indias independence
(1947), which unfortunately is not available. Therefore,
it is not possible to test its application for Ahmedabad,
while acknowledging that it does indeed have the
potential to explain industrial location.
4.3.3. Central place theory (1933)
Walter Christaller in 1933 attempted to demonstrate
the spatial effects of economic laws and rules on the
geography of settlements, and tried to explain the size,
number and location of cities in a region, in his central
place theory. Central places are defined as places (a
general term used for town/city/settlement) that have
localisation of function. These places act as centres of
the region in which they are situated. In contrast, there
are dispersed places, which are defined as places that are
not central.
A central place is called thus only when it performs
the function of a centre, i.e. providing goods and
services to the region of which it is a centre. Goods
(including services) provided by central places are
called central goods and similarly those provided by
dispersed places are called dispersed goods. Central
goods are necessarily produced and offered at few
central points, in order to be consumed at many
scattered points (e.g., cars, doctors services, etc.). On
the other hand, dispersed goods are necessarily
produced and offered at many scattered points, in
order to be consumed at a few points (e.g., bread,
milk, etc.). Lastly, the term complementary region is
defined as the region for which the central place is the
centre.
4.3.3.1. Range of central goods and its upper and
lower limits. Christaller then defines a very useful
concept of range, which forms one of the key elements
of the central place theory. Range is defined as the
distance up to which the population will still be willing
to purchase a good offered at a central place. Christaller
emphasises that, conceptually, range is an economic
distance and not a mathematical one.
It should be noted that range also depends on the type
of demand of the central good. If the demand is inelastic
(i.e., urgent, non-substitutable), then the range is larger
and if the demand is elastic (i.e., not urgent,
substitutable) then the range is smaller. For example,
the demand for medical services is likely to stretch far
131
Fig. 12. Upper and lower limits of range.
out from the central place, while that for cinema would
cease at a very short distance.
The other two important factors that influence range
are size of the central place and the density of
population. The larger the central place, the greater
will be the range as compared to smaller central places.
This is because in a larger central place, the production
costs are relatively lower and a larger amount of sales
permits a lower unit cost. Higher population density
implies greater range, as again higher densities make
production cheaper.
The range of a good has its upper and lower limits.
The upper (or outer) limit denotes an area beyond which
there will be no buyer for that particular good from the
central place (i.e., it will be cheaper to buy a good from
some other neighbouring central place). In other words,
it is the maximum distance people are willing to travel
to purchase a good. The lower (or inner) limit denotes
an area need for a firm/individual selling a good to exist
in business and make normal profits. In other words, it
denotes a minimum radius of a market area needed to
generate sufficient demand to support the supply of a
good. In the literature produced by the followers of
Christaller, upper limit came to be known simply as
range and the lower limit as threshold (see Fig. 12).
4.3.3.2. The distribution of central places. Christaller
proposes three principles that could determine the
distribution of central places in a region, which are
discussed below.
The marketing principle: if the distribution is entirely
based on the range of the good, then it would result in
evenly spaced central places with hexagonal markets
areas (see Fig. 13(a)).
The traffic principle: if any of the cities distributed as
per the market principle are smaller in size than
expected, then this could be attributed to it not being on
a major transport route. Conversely, if a smaller city
were on a major transport route, then it would be bigger
in size than expected by the market principle. If
distribution were to adhere solely to the transport
principle, then central places would be lined up on a
132
Fig. 13. A system of central places.
transport route that fanned out from central places of

higher order (see Fig. 13(b)).
The separation principle: unlike the previous two,
which are economic, this principle is socio-political.
Political considerations sometimes distort the even
spacing (and size) of cities. For example, if a region
bans the sale of certain types of goods, then its central
place will be less developed than the one in the
neighbouring region that does not have such restrictions
(see Fig. 13(c)).
4.3.3.3. Observations from the case study of southern

Germany. Based on the study of settlements in
southern Germany, Christaller concludes that the
marketing principle is the primary and chief law of
distribution of central places. The transport and
separation principle are only secondary laws causing
deviations. In practice, these two laws are effective
under certain conditions only. In short, the interplay of
all three principles generally explained the distribution,
size and number of central places in southern Germany.
133
Fig. 14. Development of central places in Ahmedabad sub-region.
Deviations not explainable economically, historically or

physiographically could be explained by people-related
causes or military reasons.
4.3.3.4. Comments. Using this theory, it is possible to
generate a network of hierarchically ordered centres in a
region with predictable functional and location characteristics. Although Christallers framework in general
applies to central places in a sub-region, this theoretical
framework could also be applied to investigating the
phenomenon of development of sub-centres and their
spatial distribution, within an urban area.
In a sub-regional context, a visual analysis of the
central place theory for the Ahmedabad sub-region is
shown in Fig. 14. Taking the old city of Ahmedabad as the

first order settlement, central place theory predicts six
second order settlements around the first order settlement
in the radius of 36 km. Indeed, in case of Ahmedabad,
there are six second order settlements in a 30 km radius,
albeit not forming a perfect hexagon. Boundaries of lower
order settlements are also shown. It can be observed that
in many instances these form hexagonal boundaries (with
pentagonal or rectangular or irregular shaped boundaries
as well). In addition, the spatial arrangement as predicted
by central place theory seems to show formation,
demonstrating all three principles at work.
The various principles of the system of central places
could also be applied to a smaller spatial scale (i.e.,
134
Fig. 15. Development of commercial areas in Ahmedabad.
metropolitan area). In this context, looking at the

distribution of centres (i.e., concentrated commercial
development), Ahmedabad has traditionally had its
historic CBD in the old city (see Fig. 15). Over the
years, new centres developed along Ashram Road and
south of the CBD in 1980s, followed by CG Road
commercial development around the 1990s. In the next
decade, the SG Highway in the western part (beyond the
AMC boundary) was the next major commercial
development. It is clear that these new centres did
not follow a perfect hexagonal geometry as predicted by
the range concept under the marketing principle.
However, the deviation as predicted by Christaller
owing to the traffic principle is evident in the occurrence
of the new commercial developments (post-1980s) in
Ahmedabad, which have exhibited a linear form.
4.3.4. Urban bid-rent theory (1964)
4.3.4.1. Theoretical underpinnings. William Alonso
in 1964 developed the theory of location of urban land
uses based on von Thunens theory of agricultural land

uses. He considers where an individual (or household)
and a firm would locate in the city. He develops a very
important concept of bid-rent that is used to arrive at an
overall equilibrium in the market.
Essentially, a bid-price curve for a household denotes
a set of land prices that the household could pay at
various distances, deriving a constant level of utility (or
satisfaction). In other words, an individual is indifferent
with regard to choosing locations on the bid-price curve
(see Fig. 16(a)).
On the other hand, the opportunities available to a
household can be expressed in the form of a price
structure curve (see Fig. 16(b)). A household will choose
a point at which its utility is maximisedthis is a point
where the price structure touches the lowest of the bidprice curves (see Fig. 16(c)). Alonso similarly extends the
same concept to determining the location of a firm.
Market equilibrium will be achieved when no user of
land can increase their level of utility (in the case of a
135
Fig. 16. Residential bid price, price structure and equilibrium.
household) or their profits (in the case of a firm) by

moving to some other location or by buying more or less
land. Equilibrium requirements for land market are
similar to any other economic good, i.e. at equilibrium
demand and supply quantities and prices must be equal.
However, in the land market there are two goods
quantity of land and distance from the centre, but only
one transaction and one price (that of land). Hence, the
simple requirements of the equation of demand and
supply become much more complicated in the case of
land market. It follows that a consumer with the steepest
bid-price curve will locate near to the centre, and the
bid-price curves get flatter as the location moves away
from the centre, as shown in the chain of bid-price
curves (see Fig. 17).
4.3.4.2. Some applications. Alonso draws important

conclusions pertaining to rising incomes, transport
improvements, and zoning regulations on location
behaviour, which are discussed as follows.
Effect of rise in income: The effect of rise in income
has two facets. Firstly, it would tend to flatten the bidprice curve, resulting in preference for more peripheral
location. Secondly, on the other hand, the marginal
utility of land will decrease as more land is held, while
the marginal utility of distance may increase as
accessibility becomes scarcer relative to land. This
will lead to steeper bid-price curves, resulting in
preference for more central location. Thus, the effect of
rising income has a combined effect and hence the net
effect cannot be generalised. What actually happens
136
Fig. 17. A chain of bid-price curves.
depends on the rate at which the ratio of marginal utility

of distance and land increases or decreases with regard
to the size of land holdings. In other words, if land
holdings are bigger, rising incomes will imply flatter
bid-price curves (i.e., preference for more peripheral
location, e.g. some American cities) and if land
holdings are smaller, it will imply steeper bid-price
curves (i.e., preference for more central location, e.g.
some Indian and Latin American cities).
Effect of improvements in transport: If a city goes
through technical improvements in transport (i.e.,
making commuting easier or less expensive, thereby
reducing the generalised cost of transport) then this
would tend to flatten the bid-price curves. If this
happens in conjunction with a marginal increase in
population, then city size will increase in terms of land
area (sprawl). On the other hand, if population increases
without transport improvements, then the city size will
increase, mainly in terms of density. This is an
important economic explanation of the evolving nature
of a citys spatial structure.
Effect of zoning: Alonso concludes that land use
zoning results in a discontinuity in the bid-price curve for
a particular user. The effects of this are simple: the
highest bidder is disallowed; the second highest bidder
(as allowed by the land use zoning regulation) will take
precedence. In such a case, the bid price of the land will
be lower than the free market condition (i.e., had there
been no zoning regulation). In other words, land use
zoning reduces the supply of land available for that
particular type of use, and for other allowable uses it
means a slight reduction in competition. The displaced
land use locates elsewhere at a higher price with lower

utility (satisfaction or profits). Density zoning of the type
that states minimum plot size (i.e., the user is compelled
to buy more land than necessary), means the user will bid
less per unit of land. If, on the other hand, a density zoning
regulation states maximum plot size (i.e., it does not
permit the user to have as much land as desired), this
means the user will purchase more composite good to
maintain the same level of utility, in order to compensate
for decreased utility by the forgone land.
Higher-income people make higher bids in the
periphery of the city, while lower-income people make
higher bids near the centre of the city. Thus, in an area, if
zoning regulation is set at minimum plot size, then highincome people would move in, and if it is set at
maximum plot size, then lower-income people would
move in. This strongly suggests that density zoning can
be used as an effective tool for an urban renewal
programme.
4.3.4.3. Comments. Alonsos theory of urban land use
and land rent derives from von Thunens theory of
agricultural land use. This theory shows how various
land uses in an urban area bid to secure the optimum
locationa location that maximises their utility
(satisfaction, in the case of residents, and profits, in
the case of firms). This theory further demonstrates the
effect of planning policies such as land use and density
zoning on the location of activities. Alonsos work
could be considered very important, as it triggered
extensive research on urban land use location models
that are widely used today.
Although Alonsos (or von Thunens) framework

provides a good behavioural explanation of the process,
the problem with its application to present-day mid-size
or mega-cities is its assumption of a central place (or a
place of attraction) to which all actors in the economic
process are obliged to travel. Theoretically, for a
monocentric city, the land uses would arrange in
concentric rings, based on their bid-rent function (e.g.,
see Fig. 18). However, as seen in Fig. 7, organisation of
land uses in concentric rings in Ahmedabad is not
evident. The reason for this could be attributed to the
polycentric nature of Ahmedabad (as discussed in
Section 4.2.4 and Fig. 15) and indeed other contemporary metropolitan areas in developing countries.
Therefore, it becomes difficult to adapt this framework
to explain the location of land uses in such cities. The
multiplicity of centres in Ahmedabad implies that its
historical CBD is gradually losing its importance as a
main attractor, making the direct application of this
theoretical framework to Ahmedabad difficult.
4.3.4.4. Discussion. It is clear from the discussions in
this section that models can play an important role in
city planning. Although the models discussed in these
sections provide a useful theoretical way to understand
and analyse cities, applications for more practical
purposes in planning have become possible by
embedding the theoretical constructs in larger spatial
interaction modelling frameworks (discussed in the next
section).
4.4. Introduction to LUTI models
Predictive models have an explicit mathematical
structure. As the name suggests, such models predict
outcomes of a system of inter-related components,
based on a set of inputs (stimuli). This section discusses
the basic structure of land usetransport interaction
models, which serve as a typical example of predictive
models applied to urban systems, with various feedback
loops embedded in their structure. The purpose of this
section is limited to the extent of providing a general
understanding of how land use and transport interact in
an urban system using some examples of existing LUTI
models. The intention is not to describe the detailed
working of LUTI models, which is comprehensively
covered in Wilson (1974), Echenique and de la Barra
(1976), de la Barra (1989), and Torrens (2000), amongst
others.
In the early 1960s, the use of the conventional fourstep transport model (which has trip generation, trip
distribution, modal split and route assignment, see
137
Fig. 18. Bid-rent theoryland use organisation.
Fig. 19) was quite prevalent. However, the criticism of

the four-step model is that it ignores the fact that
transport cost (or time) affects where land uses locate
(households and firms), and alterations in the spatial
pattern of location of land uses change the pattern of
spatial flows between origins and destinations. In
general, there is a well-accepted methodology for
representing the effects of changes in land use on the
transport system, and this has been successfully
modelled. However, there is no accepted methodology
for the converse relationship, i.e., the effects of transport
change on location of land use. In fact, there is not even
a consensus on what the effects are (Mackett, 2002). For
example, if fuel prices are increased, or if road pricing is
introduced, or if free buses are provided, then in the long
run, the location of land uses may change as a result. On
the other hand, if the distribution of population
(housing) and/or economic activity (jobs) alters because
of redevelopment or new development, this influences
demand for transport.
LUTI models are used to study the impact either of
changes in land use on transport or vice versa. In
addition, LUTI models can also be used to study the
impacts of alternative futures to inform the urban
development policy-formulation process. Over the past
few decades, especially in developed countries, national
and local governments have been using LUTI models
for testing the implications of proposed planning
policies.
4.4.1. The land usetransport relationship
Cites may be abstracted in terms of the functions
they perform and their physical form. Functions are
138
Fig. 19. The land usetransport interaction.
Table 3
Four-way classification of land use and transport.
Land use
Transport
Function
Form
Activities
Flows
Buildings
Channels
Source: Mackett (1985) (who adapts from McLoughlin, 1969).
aggregate actions of the population, such as residing,

working, shopping, recreation, etc., which collectively
could be termed activities. Performing these activities
requires travelling from one place to another, which
generates flows. The physical form of a city consists of
buildings and (transport) channels. By comparison,
activities are performed in buildings and flows
generated by the activities traverse through the
channels. The four-way classification thus generated
is shown in Table 3.
LUTI models can be thought of as two distinct
systems that are interconnected, schematically shown in
Fig. 19. The land use model uses an equilibrium
mechanism that balances the forces of demand and
supply and simulates the processes that affect the spatial
location of activities, i.e., households and firms (or
employment). The transport model takes the outputs of
the flow of activities to ascertain specific channels
and transport modes likely to be chosen. If there are
changes in the transport system, then this will change
the behaviour of location of activities, generating
different flows, thus creating a feedback loop. Fullfledged LUTI models in practice have a complex web of
several sub-models embedded in the structure of the two
systems. In some models, the location of employment is

an exogenous input to the model and location of
residences is usually modelled using the bid-rent theory.
Models that also model the location of employment use
factors such as availability of labour and its cost, and
access to transport and its cost, in the process. Some
LUTI models are discussed in the next section.
4.4.2. The Lowry model
Ira S. Lowry in 1964 developed the first LUTI model
in his seminal work, The model of a metropolis, that
was based on Pittsburgh (USA) region (Lowry, 1964).
Lowrys premise is that the place of employment
dictates where people live. He divided the employment
sector into two components: basic sector that caters to
non-local demands of goods and services (i.e., those
exported outside the urban area) and service sector that
caters to the needs of the local population (i.e., retail
shops, schools, etc.). In addition, Lowry identifies a
household sector, which constitutes the residents who
are directly related to the number of jobs available.
Their choice of a place of residence is closely linked to
their place of employment.
The location of employment in the basic sector is
exogenously inputted into the model, based on the
assumption that its location is not constrained by local
factors. This is used to estimate the location of
(employed) residents, based on a gravity model, which
uses distance (or transport costs) between various
employment (zones) as a deterring function. The
resident population so created will require further
employment to provide them with local services. This
139
Fig. 20. General structure of Lowry model.
Fig. 21. General structure of MEPLAN model.
estimate of service sector employees is added to the

total employment, and the model proceeds iteratively to
estimate population in each of the zones, until further
changes in the population estimates become insignificant. Fig. 20 schematically shows the process in the
Lowry model. The Lowry model is important in the
history of LUTI modelling as it triggered development
of several Lowry-type models in the decades to follow,
each with specific improvements.
4.4.3. The MEPLAN model
The MEPLAN suite of models stems from the work
of Marcial Echenique and Partners, which was based on
the original work carried out at the Martin Centre,
University of Cambridge. The initial work by Echeni-
que and others in 1969 took the Lowry model (Lowry,

1964) as a starting point and extended it to include an
explicit representation of the building stock that existed
in an area. Further refinement of the model in terms of
its calibration, and detailed development of the
transport side, took place in the 1970s. By 1977, the
basic structure of MEPLAN was nearly complete and
was developed into flexible software (Echenique,
1994). MEPLAN applications to various cities over
the years are covered in Echenique (1983, 1986),
Echenique et al. (1990) and Echenique, Jin, Burgas, and
Gil (1994).
The MEPLAN modelling package is designed as a
general abstract modelling framework to represent
socioeconomic phenomena with a spatial dimension. It
140
has a sophisticated and consistent mathematical

structure, embedded in the influential school of discrete
choice models and random utility theory (Domencich &
McFadden, 1975). The general structure of MEPLAN is
schematically shown in Fig. 21.
It shows that the relationship between land use and
transport is treated as a market relationship. As in any
market, there are actors who demandin this case land/
floorspace/buildings and transportand actors who
supply these. The interaction between the demand and
supply determines the equilibrium prices of buildings
and transport. Prices thus act as a key measure of the
way in which land and transport networks are assigned
to potential users, and determine the density of
occupation of both land and transport. If the demand
for capacity of buildings or transport exceeds supply,
then prices go up, reducing demand until equilibrium is
established. Land and transport networks with higher
demand end up being used at higher density, implying
higher land values (rents) and congestion, respectively.
Using the concept of land use and transport as
interacting markets provides three advantages:
1. Modelling results produced can be justified on the
basis of economic behaviour.
2. The model is suitable for analysis of policy
alternatives, by allowing policy options to change
the demand and supply of land and transport
elements (i.e., by using policy tools such as
investment, regulation and pricing, or combinations
thereof).
3. The outputs from the model are produced as a set of
prices and quantities, and therefore provide a basis
for formulating a system of economic evaluation of
alternative policy options.
The MEPLAN package has four interrelated
modules (Echenique, 1994; Williams, 1994). The first
is the land use module, which estimates the spatial
location of activities such as employment and population, and produces trade between zones. It incorporates
three elements: an inputoutput model; an elastic
consumption model that allows the consumption of
goods, services and space to vary with prices and
incomes; and a spatial choice model that predicts the
location of activities such as households and employment. It contains a trip distribution stage.
The second is the land use transport interface
module, which converts the matrices of flows of trade
from the land use model into trip matrices disaggregated
by purpose, and also covers transport disutilities of
travel from the transport module into trade disutilities or
accessibilities for use in the land use model. It contains

the trip generation stage.
The third is the transport module, which assigns the
flow matrices to different modes and routes, and carries
out capacity restraint on links to represent congestion on
roads and overcrowding on railways. It contains the
modal split and assignment stages.
The last is the evaluation module, which carries out
the cost-benefit analysis of a particular policy compared
to a base case. It represents both land use and transport
benefits, and produces further indicators on the
performance of the system, such as average speeds,
energy use, pollution emissions, and distribution of
benefits by socioeconomic groups.
4.4.4. The TRANUS model
TRANUS (de la Barra, 1989) is an integrated land
use and transport modelling package developed by
Tomas de la Barra in 1989, and can be considered
conceptually similar to the MEPLAN model. The
system combines a state-of-the-art model of activities
location and interaction, land use and the real estate
market, with a comprehensive multi-modal transport
model. The combination of these two models produces
the highest benefits, but the transport model may be
used as a stand-alone component, especially for shortterm projections.
Similar to MEPLAN, the theoretical framework of
TRANUS also draws from many traditions, namely:
spatial microeconomics (Alonso, 1964; von Thunen,
1826); gravity and entropy maximisation (Lowry, 1964;
Wilson, 1970); and the inputoutput accounting framework (Leontief, 1962). Like MEPLAN, TRANUS is
also embedded in the school of discrete models and
random utility theory.
The general structure of the model, shown schematically in Fig. 22, has two main sub-systems: activities
and transport. Within each sub-system, a distinction is
made between demand and supply elements that
interact to generate a state of equilibrium.
The location and interaction of activities represent
the demand side in the activities sub-system. Activities
such as industries or households locate in specific places
and interact with other activities to perform their
functions. Activities also require land and floorspace in
order to perform their functions. Such spaces are
provided by developers in the real estate market, thus
representing the supply side. The interaction between
these two elements must lead to a state of equilibrium. If
the demand for space is greater than the supply in a
specific place, land rent will increase to reduce demand.
Consequently, land rents or real estate prices are the
141
Fig. 22. General structure of TRANUS model.
variable elements that lead the system to a state of

equilibrium.
In turn, the interaction between activities generates
travel requirements. In the transport sub-system,
demand is represented by the need for travel, which
may take the form of people travelling to their places of
work or services, or goods that are produced in one
place and consumed in another. A distinction is made
between physical supply and operative supply. The
physical supply is made of roads, railways, maritime
routes or any other relevant component. The operative
supply is made of a set of transport operators that supply
transport services, such as bus companies, truck
companies, airlines, or even automobiles and pedestrians. The operative supply uses the physical supply to
perform its functions.
Demandsupply equilibrium in the transport subsystem is achieved in two ways: prices and time. If the
demand becomes greater than the supply for a particular
service, the price of the service may increase, but it is
mainly the travel time that increases to achieve
equilibrium. For example, if the number of passengers
boarding a bus is greater than the spare capacity of the
service, then the waiting time will increase. Similarly, if
the number of vehicles along a road gets close to the
capacity of the road, congestion is generated, thus
increasing travel times. In other words, time is an
important component in the demandsupply equilibrium in the transport system.
The result of such equilibrium is synthesised in the
concept of accessibility. It is the friction imposed by the
transport system that inhibits the interaction between
activities. Consequently, accessibility feeds back into

the activities system, affecting the location and
interaction between activities and the prices in the real
estate market. Because it is a cost function, accessibility
may also be called transport disutility.
4.4.5. The DELTA model
DELTA is a more recent model developed by David
Simmonds of David Simmonds Consultancy, originally
developed in the mid-1990s (Simmonds & Feldman,
2007) and formally published in 1999 (Simmonds,
1999). The overall aim of DELTA is to allow the
development of land use models, which, in combination
with appropriate transport models, enable users to study
the future effects of both land use and transport policies,
singly or in combination, on both the land use and
transport markets.
DELTA represents land use change over periods of
time, linked to a transport model, which is run to model
the performance of the transport system at a particular
point in time. The transport model is therefore run
several times in any one test, rather than just once for a
horizon year. DELTA calculates all information about
households, population, employment and floorspace,
which the transport model requires to generate travel.
DELTA thus replaces what is otherwise a process of
preparing exogenous planning data input.
The processes modelled in DELTA can be divided
into those that primarily affect spaces and those that
primarily affect activities. For those affecting space, it
predicts changes in the quantity and quality of
floorspace available for occupation. Those affecting
142
Fig. 23. General structure of DELTA model.
activities deal with household transitions and employment growth or decline, location or relocation and
competition for space (the property market), and the
employment status of individuals. The location or
relocation model is the main locus of interactions, both
between activities and space and between land use and
transport. The influence of transport operates through
sets of accessibility measures and through environmental variables. Fig. 23 shows the main linkages
between the sub-models in DELTA model within a oneyear period.
DELTA consists of six urban and three regional submodels. The urban sub-models estimate:
1. The development of buildings on land.
2. Demographic change and economic growth (applying growth rates which are either exogenous or
predicted in the regional components of DELTA).
3. Changes in car ownership.
4. Location and relocation of households and jobs.
5. Employment and status changes.
6. Changes in the quality of urban areas.
The regional sub-models represent:
7. Migration between different labour market areas.
8. Investment in the regional economy (long-term
decisions affecting the future location of employment).
9. Production and trade in the regional economy
(shorter-term effects on employment and freight
transport).
4.4.6. A brief discussion on LUTI models
As seen in the preceding sections, LUTI models
allow the planning process to be carried out in a more
scientific manner by modelling the behaviour of urban

actors as against a more intuitive approach (or
informal commonsense approach, as Breheny and
Foot (1986) call it) without models. However, as already
reported in Section 2.4, developing such comprehensive
LUTI models in developing countries is problematic,
considering the dearth of availability of appropriate
data. Based on his experience in developing countries,
Echenique (1983) points out that simple and robust
models could be built in situations with limited data. In
this study, a simplified suite of models has been
developed for the case study city of Ahmedabad
(discussed in the next section) that uses the available
data to the best possible extent.
5. SIMPLAN model: a brief introduction
SIMPLAN is a suite of four modules for informing
the process of city planning. Its development and
calibration is a subject matter for a separate paper
(forthcoming) and is therefore not discussed here.
However, a brief introduction, along with key equations
and a comparison of modelled outputs and observed
data for base year 2001, is provided in this section.
The first module, called the trend analysis module
(TAM), is concerned with analysing the evolution of the
spatial structure of a city. This module currently uses
three spatial analysis tools, such as density gradients
(Clark, 1951), dispersion index (Bertaud, 2001), and
concentration/de-concentration measure (SCATTER,
2005), see Appendix D. (Its application to Ahmedabad
is discussed in a forthcoming paper.) Such analysis not
only provides a quantitative understanding of the spatial
evolution of a city, but also helps inform the process of
formulating alternative future planning policies for

testing. The second module is an econometric
residential location model (RLM), as it uses average
housing rents as part of the generalised cost (in addition
to transport costs) in a gravity-type allocation function
and currently deals with work trips. This module uses
the microeconomic theory of demand and supply to
ascertain the consumption of residential floorspace in
each zone, based on the income and price elasticity of
demand for housing floorspace. The study area workers
are divided into four socioeconomic groups (SEGs) or
income groups (SEG1SEG4, representing professional/managerial, administrative/clerical, semi-skilled,
and unskilled workers, respectively). The demand and
supply in each zone determines the average housing
rent, which is part of the location cost for households.
As mentioned earlier, it was not possible to develop a
full-fledged land LUTI model that considers all
activities in an urban system, due to data availability
constraints. However, it is believed that modelling
residential location would be a significant step,
considering that it is the single most dominant land
use in most urban areas (about 4550% in Ahmedabad).
The work trips are then split by mode, using a
multinomial logit modal split model (MSM), which
forms the third module of SIMPLAN. After calibration,
SIMPLAN can be used to test alternative planning
policy alternatives for a future year, with appropriate
employment, dwelling floorspace, and transport inputs.
The fourth module, called ASM, is concerned with the
assessment of alternative planning policies against key
economic, environmental and social indicators.
LUTI models usually have various stages. For
example, de la Barra (1989) conceptualises the stages
and its hierarchical sequence as location choice, trip
choice, mode choice, and route choice; while Echenique
(2004) conceptualises it as location choice, mode
choice, time-of-day choice, and route choice. SIMPLAN considers two stages: location choice and mode
choice. The reason for eliminating the trip choice stage
is because the key determinant of where households
locate is primarily driven by job location, and hence, in
this context, modelling only the work trips would
suffice. The route choice and time-of-day choice stages
have also been eliminated because generating traffic
volumes by time of day is beyond the scope of a
standard development plan-making exercise (at which
SIMPLAN is primarily aimed), in addition to the fact
that this stage requires modelling of non-work trips,
such as shopping, education, recreational, etc. With
regard to the sequence of stages within SIMPLAN,
although in theory it could be argued that the mode
143
choice decision could either occur simultaneously with

location choice or could precede it, the conventional
hierarchy (i.e., location choice followed by mode
choice) has been adopted. This is because doing so does
not appear to have any inherent advantage over the
conventional hierarchy.
The structure of the RLM is shown in Eq. (1), which
is similar to Mackett and Mountcastle (1997), but it has
two crucial differences: firstly, it is by SEG, and
secondly and more importantly, it uses housing rents as
part of the location cost in addition to the generalised
cost of travel. This aspect is important because housing
rents represent a substantial portion of the location cost
and are influential in determining location behaviour.
Xim expbm cm
i j
m
P
Rm
E
ij
j
m m
m
i Xi expb ci j
(1)
where Rm
i j is resident worker of SEG type m locating in
zone i with a job in zone j; Emj is employment in zone j
by SEG type m; cm
i j is the a composite measure of
generalised cost converted to Rs/day to avoid huge
magnitude of values. It is calculated as shown below:
m
m
cm
i j ri n i j f i j
where rim is the average imputed housing rent1 paid by

SEG type m in zone i obtained as ri unit DFSDm
i , in Rs/
day (for details see Eqs. (2) and (3)), vm
is
the
average
ij
time cost for a round trip from zone i to j by SEG type m,
in Rs/day. Notes: (1) Modal split is not carried out at this
stage and hence average (harmonic mean) observed
speed matrix is used in the calculation. Because of this
current limitation, congestion is not being modelled. (2)
In this study, for a future transport policy to be tested
(e.g., public transport-oriented, highway capacity
expansion, or a combination), this matrix is modified
accordingly (not discussed in this paper). (3) The value
of time used is 50% of hourly wage of a resident worker
of SEG type m based on the literature review of travel
time estimates. f ij is the average out-of-pocket expense
(i.e., fuel, fare, etc.) for a round trip from zone i to j, in
Rs/day. Notes: (1) As modal split is not carried out at
this stage, average out-of-pocket expenses are used in
the calculation. (2) In addition, it is not possible to
create a feedback loop after modal split, as modal split
is carried out at an aggregate level (i.e., not by SEG type
m, see Eq. (6)). In light of these limitations, it is
believed that vm
i j f i j would be an acceptable repre1
All references to average housing rents in this study mean imputed

rents, unless stated otherwise.
144
sentation of generalised work travel cost. In other

words, it is assumed that the nuances due to modespecific out-of-pocket expenses are insignificant insofar
as being able to change location behaviour. Xim is a
housing attractiveness factor
by SEG type m to be
dm
calibrated, where, Xim Fi i and F i is the theoretical
maximum supply of residential floorspace allowable in
a zone and dm
i is a parameter to be calibrated for each of
the zones by SEG type m (which is set to unity initially).
The purpose of this parameter is to factor for the
unexplained variation in making a zone more or less
attractive for housing. bm a parameter by SEG type m to
be calibrated.
The average housing rent in each zone is obtained
using Eq. (2) and the new unit rent is calculated
iteratively using Eq. (3) (which is conceptually similar
to Echenique, 2004).
P unit
m
r
DFSDm
i Hi
ri m i
(2)
Hi
where
riunit
riunit
u
Di
Si
(3)
where, riunit is the (new) unit monthly rent (Rs/m2) in

zone i. riunit is the (previous) unit monthly rent (Rs/m2)
in zone i. Di is the total residential floorspace
demanded
(m2) in zone i which is calculated as:
P
m
m
m
m DFSDi Hi , where DFSDi is the dwelling
2
floorspace demanded (m /dwelling) in zone i by SEG
type m (obtained from the equations of the respective
demand curves) and H denotes households. Si is the total
residential floorspace supplied in zone i (obtained by
applying the average dwelling size to the dwellings in
2001). Note: The Census of India does not provide
information on dwellings; however, the numbers of
households are provided, and assuming a vacancy of
2%, dwellings for each of the model zones in 2001 are
estimated accordingly.
u is a control parameter estimated to be 0.10 (the
purpose of this parameter is merely to control the
2
It is acknowledged that in terms of safety and comfort, twowheelers and cars are perceived differently. However, these have been
amalgamated based on their common characteristics of being private
(i.e., available on demand). In addition, it should be noted that paratransit modes are rarely used for work trips on a regular basis and
hence have not been included in the model. However, for some work
trips within and between peripheral areas of Ahmedabad, a particular
type of para-transit mode called chakda does exist (see Fig. 46). In the
future, such special modes could be included in the model should
observed data on their usage become available.
oscillations in the demandsupply ratio, enabling the

model to converge quickly).
From the resident workers in a zone, the households
and population are calculated using observed resident
workers per household (w) and population each
residential worker supports (also known as inverse
activity rate) (g), respectively; for a future year both w
and g are forecasted.
The structure of MSM is shown in Eq. (4), which
calculates the proportion (or probability), Prki j , of
resident workers residing in zone i having a job in
zone j using mode k for travel to work. The modal
split model developed here involves three modes:
private automobile (PA) (two-wheelers and cars2);
public transport (PT) (bus); and slow (SL) (bicycling
and walking) and uses the standard multinomial
logit (MNL) formulation (Domencich & McFadden,
1975).
expVikj
Prki j P
k
k expVi j
(4)
where Vikj is the utility of choosing mode k formulated

as:
Vikj ak bckij vtikj ak bckij v=btikj
ak bckij ttikj
(5)
where ak is the alternative specific constant (assumed

zero for the other modes); b is a parameter to be
calibrated (Rs1); ckij is the cost of travel by mode k
(Rs); v is a parameter to be calibrated (min1); tikj is the
time of travel by mode k (min); t is a new parameter,
which is v=b (Rs/min) and hence by definition is the
value of time.
The proportion of work trips by mode k from zone i
to j is given as:
Rkij Prki j where Ri j
X
m
Rm
i j ; and Ri j is from Eq:1
(6)
Data from an origindestination survey carried out

by DMRC (2004) has been used to calibrate the model.
It should be noted that the survey is aggregated over all
income groups and hence this modal split model is
applied to the total trips by all SEG type.
SIMPLAN is developed in spreadsheet, with all key
operations controlled by pressing buttons linked with
macros (macros are sub-routines written in Visual Basic
Application code, within the spreadsheet). This
provides a visually driven user interface, making the
145
Fig. 24. SIMPLAN modelling suite.
model simple to understand, operate and update.

Therefore, it allows planners to prepare several policy
alternatives with drastic variations, and to test these to
see future implications, enabling them to make more
informed decisions before arriving at the final plan. In
terms of computing times, running alternative policy
options (like those discussed in the next section) takes
about five minutes on a standard personal computer.
Secondly, all testing can be carried out in-house by city
planning officials, which not only lends more transparency, usually not associated with planning projects
involving mathematical modelling (wherein specific
tasks are outsourced to private consulting firms), but
also implies less financial burden on local authorities for
outsourcing work.
The interrelationship between the four SIMPLAN
modules is shown schematically in Fig. 24, and the
overall structure of second and third modules, which
146
Fig. 25. Structure of SIMPLAN core.
constitute the core of SIMPLAN, is shown in Fig. 25.

The working of the RLM is shown in Fig. 26 and a
screen shot of the spreadsheet is shown in Fig. 27. Key
comparison of population, average trip distances and
housing rents between modelled outputs and observed
data is shown in Tables 4 and 5 and Fig. 28,
respectively.
6. Development of alternative policies for the
future
6.1. Introduction
Planning in Ahmedabad is governed by the Development Plan, which is a statutory document enforceable
by law. The DP is revised every 10 years. The current
DP, which was first published in November 1997 and
revised in May 1999, was for horizon year 2011. The
next DP, due in the next couple of years, would be for
the horizon year 2021. Therefore, for the sake of
consistency with local planning agencies in Ahmeda-
bad, year 2021 has been adopted as the horizon year for
the urban planning policy alternatives in this study.
An urban planning policy generally has two key
components: the urban form and transport. There can be
a variety of theoretical possibilities for these two
components themselves and how they can be combined,
as shown schematically in Fig. 29.
In this study, it was thought prudent to examine two
extreme urban planning policies: compaction and
dispersal. As Banister (2005) puts it, even making no
change needs to be placed in the same context (of other
potential choices), as this would have important
implications. Therefore, in addition, a trend policy is
also developed, which, by and large, represents
continuation of current trends both in terms of spatial
development and transport policies. However, committed projects like the Bus Rapid Transit System for
Ahmedabad (BRTS), the implementation of which
began in 2007, has been included in all future policies.
Thus, three alternative urban planning policies have
been developed, as described in Sections 6.36.5.
147
Fig. 26. SIMPLAN RLM stage operation.
6.2. Key modelling inputs

The key land use inputs to running SIMPLAN for each
of the urban planning policy alternatives are employment
per zone and dwellings floorspace supplied per zone. The
study area is divided into 21 zones (modelled zones) and
2226 are external zones (see Fig. 30). The totals for
employment and dwelling floorspace supply for the study
area remain the same for all alternative policies, but their
spatial allocation per zone may be different, depending

on the alternative. It should be noted that the alternative
planning policy inputs are deliberately extreme or
exaggerated, in order to amplify their effects.
The total employment for 2021 has been obtained by
interpolation from LBGC (2001). The total dwellings
required in 2021 are derived as follows. The census data
from 1971 to 2001 shows that resident workers per
household has been growing at an annual rate of
Fig. 27. SIMPLAN screen shot (base year 2001).
148
149
Table 4
Workers and population 2001 (modelled vs. observed) (thousands).
Zone
Resident workers
Obs
Mod
Households
Population
% Diff: mod
vs. obs
Obs
Mod
% Diff: mod
vs. obs
Obs
Mod
% Diff: mod
vs. obs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12 a
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
111.3
59.3
41.3
117.8
62.3
162.6
66.3
180.9
55.2
105.0
109.2
6.0
3.5
16.3
26.1
15.2
14.9
87.0
86.2
38.0
135.9
111.3
59.3
41.3
117.8
62.3
162.7
66.3
180.9
55.2
105.0
109.2
6.0
3.5
16.3
26.0
15.2
14.9
87.0
86.2
38.0
135.7
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
69.5
38.0
26.5
77.5
37.7
110.6
38.7
105.7
46.8
65.5
75.7
2.9
2.1
11.1
17.7
9.1
9.4
57.5
60.0
27.8
96.1
73.1
39.0
27.1
77.4
40.9
107.0
43.6
118.9
36.3
69.0
71.8
3.9
2.3
10.7
17.1
10.0
9.8
57.2
56.6
25.0
89.1
5.2
2.6
2.5
0.1
8.6
3.3
12.6
12.5
22.5
5.5
5.1
36.1
6.3
3.7
3.5
9.7
4.4
0.5
5.6
10.0
7.3
372.6
178.5
127.4
369.5
205.2
585.6
194.1
557.5
226.8
345.3
357.7
14.7
10.6
54.7
84.3
44.4
48.2
270.6
290.4
136.8
467.3
366.5
195.4
136.0
388.2
205.2
536.4
218.7
595.9
181.9
346.0
359.6
19.8
11.4
53.7
85.8
50.1
49.0
286.6
283.9
125.3
446.6
1.6
9.5
6.8
5.1
0.0
8.4
12.6
6.9
19.8
0.2
0.6
34.3
7.5
1.8
1.8
13.0
1.8
5.9
2.2
8.4
4.4
Tot.
1500.1
1500.1
0.0
986.0
986.0
0.0
4941.9
4941.9
0.0
Key: diff: difference; mod: modelled; and obs: observed.

Note: [1] Observed values are from Census (2001a). [2] Although modelled and observed resident workers match within 0.5%, the households and
population have a discrepancy because an overall average of resident workers per household and inverse activity rate (or household size) has been
applied to the modelled resident workers in all zones.
a
It should be noted that zone 12 is a military cantonment area and hence most of the land is not in the open market and thus this zone is not being
properly modelled.
0.024%. Using this rate, w2021 is calculated and then the

total number of households in the modelled area for
2021 is calculated as shown in Eq. (7). The dwellings
required from 2021 to 2001 are calculated as shown in
Eq. (8).
H 2021
R2021
w2021
(7)
where H2021 is the total households in 2021 in the

modelled area (zones 121); R2021 is estimate of workers
both with residence and job in the modelled area (about
96% to total jobs in the modelled area); w2021 is the
projected resident workers per household.Using the total
households obtained in Eq. (7), the estimate of dwelling
units required in the 20-year period is then given as:
d20212001 d2021 d 2001
(8)
where d2021 is dwelling units in 2021 obtained by assuming one household consumes one dwelling and 2%
vacancy rate of dwellings; d2001 is dwelling units in 2001.
It is assumed in this 20-year period that average

incomes will increase in real terms. In reality, this is
reflected by households moving up the SEG ladder. This
is done by increasing the proportion of SEG1 and SEG2
households in 2021 based on trend analysis. In addition,
in the case of Ahmedabad, to simulate a rapidly grown
economy, incomes have been assumed to increase at a
rate slightly higher than inflation. This is achieved by
assuming the increase in income per annum (5.5%) to
be higher than the discount rate (5%). As a result of the
increase in average incomes in real terms, the 2021
demand curves, as compared to 2001, shift to the right,
as shown in Fig. 31. The equations of these curves are
used to calculate the dwelling floorspace demanded for
alternative policies.
6.3. Trend policy 2021 (TR21)
6.3.1. TR21 land use inputs
As the name suggests, this policy represents a
continuation of trends, both in terms of land use and
150
Table 5
Average trip distance (modelled vs. observed).
SEG
bm
Modelled
ATD (km)
SEG1
SEG2
SEG3
SEG4
0.200
0.235
0.300
0.510
8.69
7.53
5.74
5.12
All SEG
6.22
Observed
ATD (km) a
6.006.50
Data by SEG is not available; the aggregate range is based on

LBGC (2001) and CEPT (2006).
transport. LBGC (2001) report has employment

projections up to 2035, which are interpolated to
2021 for SIMPLAN zones. However, this employment
produces a proportion split of 65% for inner zones
(zones 111) and 35% for outer zones (zones 1221),
as against the 2001 proportion of 80%20%,
respectively. On the other hand, if all of the new
employment for period 20012021 hypothetically
occurs only in outer zones, then this produces an
employment proportion spilt by inner and outer zones
of 60%40%, respectively, and thus the LBGC (2001)
employment projections could be considered a more
radical scenario. Therefore, the zonal employment
was appropriately modified to achieve employment
proportion of 75%25%, respectively (details are
presented in Table 17 and zone-wise values are shown

in Appendix A).
It should be noted that using total employment for
allocation resulted in a huge reduction in employment
in certain zones (depending on the policy), implying
that employment will move to different zones, dipping
below the 2001 level in some zones. This is unlikely,
given the current growth potential of Ahmedabad region
and Gujarat as a whole. In other words, regardless of the
policy, employment will still grow in absolute terms
(albeit in varying magnitudes) in all zones. Therefore, it
was felt appropriate to deal with increments only. Total
employment is obtained by adding the increments to the
base 2001 employment.
The allocation of employment increments (by inner
and outer zones) is carried out using Eq. (9)an
approach similar to Hansen (1959). In theory, it is
possible to control new jobs locations by planners, but
this requires very strict land use regulations. Given the
current statutory scope of the Ahmedabad Development
Plan (e.g., commercial development is allowed on roads
with right of way of 18 m or more), this is very unlikely
to happen in Ahmedabad. Therefore, employment
allocations are kept the same for all alternatives, and
only dwelling allocations are varied for alternative
policies. Nonetheless, the effects of extreme versions of
compaction and dispersal policies, with different
employment allocations, have also been tested (dis-
Fig. 28. Average zonal housing rents 2001 and 1996 land prices.
151
Fig. 29. Schematic policy alternativesurban form and transport.
cussed as part of sensitivity analysis in Section 8.0).

SE2001 PTQS2021
i
Ei20212001 E20212001 P i 2001
2021
SE
PTQS
i
i
i
(9)
where Ei20212001 is the additional employment in zone i

in the period stated; E20212001 is the total employment
increment for the period stated (which was divided into
inner and outer zones); SEi is the share of employment
in zone i in the year indicated; PTQSi is the public
transport quality score in zone i in the year indicated for
the option under question.The allocation of the additional dwelling units (di20212001 ) to the zones is carried
using a similar equation to employment allocation, as
shown in Eq. (10). The floor space index (i.e. the ratio of
total built-up area to plot area) for each zone is kept the
same as base 2001, as this remains unchanged for trend
policy.
Ec RRv SC x PTQSI
di20212001 d 20212001 P i c i v i x
i Ei RRi SCi PTQSI
(10)
where d20212001 is as calculated from Eq. (8); di20212001

is the additional number of dwelling units supplied in
zone i in the period stated (which is converted to
floorspace); Eic is the employment in zone i (where,
Ei Ei2001 Ei20212001 and Ei20212001 is from Eq. (9));
RRni is the ratio of rent in zone i to the average for
152
Fig. 30. SIMPLAN zones.
modelled area for base 2001; SCix is spare capacity in

zone i (depends on the FSI in that zone, which changes
depending on the policy under question); PTQSi is the
public transport accessibility score in zone i; c; n; x;
are parameters which are currently set to unity (but can
easily be changed, based on the value judgements of
local planners).
The allocation of dwellings was modified marginally
for zone 1 (walled city) because of the trend in
population decline, and zone 12 being a special zone
(i.e., a military cantonment). It should be noted that if
local authority planners are confident enough to use a
more intuitive approach, then they could directly input

the dwellings by zone. Eq. (10) is used for allocating
dwellings for all 2021 alternative policies, which is then
converted to floorspace. The average dwelling unit size
in 2001 increases in 2021, based on a households
income elasticity of demand for housing.
6.3.2. TR21 transport inputs
The changes in transport systems are being
represented by changes in the average travel times
for all origindestination pairs. For private automobiles, average travel speeds have been reduced from
153
Fig. 31. Change in demand curves for alternative policies.
base 2001, to account for congestion in inner zones,

and increased marginally in outer zones to reflect
augmentation of existing road capacity and new roads.
In addition, in cases where information has been
available, the network distances have been changed to
represent changes in the road network, such as flyovers
and underpasses. For public transport, the bus rapid
transit system (which is now being implemented in
Ahmedabad), has been considered for all planning
alternatives (with a superior version in compaction
policy). The public transport speeds have been
increased, based on the predominant BRTS type
(i.e., exclusive BRTS, normal BRTS, or ordinary bus).
The current fare policy of the AMC (at 2001 prices)
has been adopted for the public transport system.
Since private automobiles and slow modes usually
share the same road infrastructure, travel speed
changes are in line with private automobiles, as
discussed above.
Such assumptions have been made for trend and
other alternative policies described in the subsequent
sections, because developing a network-based transport
model was beyond the scope of this study. However, any
commercially available transport model with network
modelling capability could be easily dovetailed with
SIMPLAN, to better simulate the transport system.
Average speeds assumed for all modes across all

policies are shown in Appendix C, Tables C1C3.
6.4. Compaction policy 2021 (CC21)
6.4.1. CC21 land use inputs
This policy represents an alternative urban form, in
which most of the new residential development in the 20year period to 2021 takes place within inner zones (i.e.,
the AMC 2001 boundary, zones 111). The aim is to
concentrate dwellings, as far as possible, within the
existing footprint of the city, to reduce the overall travel
distance to work and to create a modal shift in favour of
public transport. Corresponding changes in FSI are made,
in which FSI in inner zones is increased to 2.5, while in
outer zones it is retained at 1.0. In addition, the land
suitable for residential area has been increased to take
into account conversion of non-residential uses to
residential use. For example, there is a lot of derelict
old textile mills land in eastern Ahmedabad that could be
put to residential use under the compaction policy.
Employment by zone for 2021 is the same as trend policy.
6.4.2. CC21 transport inputs
Travel speeds for private automobiles have been
reduced compared to trend policy to represent conges-
154
Fig. 32. Dwelling inputs for alternative policies (20012021).
tion owing to the higher amount of population in inner

zones, while for outer zones they are at par with trend
policy. Network distances are the same as trend policy.
For the public transport system, a superior version (i.e.,
better than the trend policy) has been assumed, to reflect
more investments in public transport. Therefore, travel
speeds by public transport are more than the trend
policy, based on the type of bus service available in that
zone (i.e., exclusive BRTS, normal BRTS, or ordinary
bus). It is assumed that the pedestrian infrastructure
would be better than trend policy, but since bicycling
infrastructure is part of roads, it will be of lower

quality than trend policy. The combined effect on the
infrastructure for slow modes is that slightly better
speeds are assumed than trend policy in inner zones.
6.5. Dispersal policy 2021 (DS21)
6.5.1. DS21 land use inputs
This policy represents an alternative urban form, in
which most of the new residential development in the
20-year period to 2021 takes place in outer zones. The
Table 6
Summary of land use and transport inputs.
S#
Input
Base 2001
Planning policy alternatives 2021

TR21
Land use
L1 Employment (taken up
by workers resident in
modelled area, i.e.,
zones 121)
Proportion of
employment
by SEG
DS21
1,500,068
2,038,434
Per zone: see

Appendix A for details
Per zone: calculated based on Eq. (9), see Appendix A for details
(different employment distribution per zone tested for sensitivity
analysis, see Section 9)
Based on LBGC (2001)
Modified to account for increases in SEG1 and SEG2, based on trend analysis
SEG1:
SEG2:
SEG3:
SEG4:
8.4%
22.5%
41.2%
27.9%
SEG1:
SEG2:
SEG3:
SEG4:
10.2%
25.3%
38.5%
26.0%
L3
Distribution of
employment by SEG
by zone
Assumed based
on local knowledge,
but adjusted to
match totals in L2
Unchanged
L4
Floor space index (FSI)
W-city: 3.0
Inner: 1.8
Outer: 1.0
Gngr: 1.8
Same as base
W-city: 3.0
Inner: 2.5
Outer: 1.0
Gngr: 2.0
W-city: 3.0
Inner: 1.8
Outer: 2.0
Gngr: 1.8
L5
Land suitable
for residential
use (LSR)
Estimated based
on existing land
use map and
satellite images
Changed for outer

zones based on local
knowledge to account
for conversions of
greenfield sites to
residential use (a
phenomenon
naturally occurring as
the city expands)
LSR inner: 8,195 ha
LSR outer: 6,587 ha
LSR total: 14,782 ha
Changed for inner

zones based on
local knowledge to
account for conversion
of brownfield sites
to residential
use (by way of market
response to higher FSI)
Changed for outer zones based on local knowledge to

account for conversions of greenfield sites to residential
use (by way of market response to higher FSI)
LSR inner: 9,780 ha

LSR outer: 5,770 ha
LSR inner: 8,195 ha

LSR outer: 7,404 ha
LSR inner: 8,195 ha

LSR outer: 5,770 ha
L2
CC21
155
156
Table 6 (Continued )
S#
Input
Base 2001
Planning policy alternatives 2021

TR21
L6
Dwelling
floorspace supply
45,684,830 m
(966,323 dwelling units).
Calculated based
on observed
households (Census, 2001a)
Per zone: see Appendix B
for details
Calculated from map
CC21
DS21
67,602,643 m (1,306,880 dwelling units)
Per zone: different for each zone calculated based on Eq. (10),
see Fig. 32 and Appendix B for details (Also, different dwellings
distribution per zone tested for sensitivity analysis)
Calculated from map (revising base year values after considering network changes)
T2
Average travel
speeds OD matrix
Harmonic mean
of zonal speeds
(see Appendix C, Tables C1C3).
T3
Average travel
time OD matrix
Calculated from
T1 and T2 above
T4
Out of pocket
expenses
PA: Rs 1.86/km
PA: Rs 2.13/km
PT: 2001 fares

PT: 2001 fares (as advised by AMC)
SL: Rs 0.08/km
SL: Rs 0.09/km
(see Appendix C,
Tables C4 and C5 for details)
T5
Generalised cost
of travel
Calculate from
T3 and T4 using
value of time estimated in T6
T6
Proportion of trips
by PA, PT, SL for
calibration of modal split
MNL modal split

model calibrated
based on survey data
from LBGC (2001)
P
Rij (i.e., m Rm
i j ) from the residential location model is fed in to the modal split model
to obtain person work trips by mode
Key: W-city: walled city (zone 1); inner: area within AMC 2001 boundary (i.e., zones 111); outer: area outside AMC 2001 boundary (i.e., zones 1221); Gngr: Gandhinagar city (zone 21); OD:
origindesignation pair (of zones); PA: private automobile (two-wheeler, car); PT: public transport (bus); SL: slow (bicycle, walk); and MNL: multinomial logit.
Transport
T1 Average (network)
distance OD matrix
aim is to increase dwelling supply in outer zones to

achieve a better balance in housing rents over the
modelled area. Corresponding changes in FSI are made,
in which FSI in outer zones is increased to 2.0, while for
inner zones it is held the same as trend policy at 1.8.
Employment by zone for 2021 is the same as trend
policy. In addition, the land suitable for residential use
in outer zones has been increased higher than trend
policy, to account for conversion of greenfield sites.
6.5.2. DS21 transport inputs
Travel speeds for private automobile have been
increased for all zones over trend policy (with slightly
more increase in outer zones) to represent the higher level
of investments in road infrastructure (i.e., capacity
expansion of existing roads and new roads). Network
distances are the same as trend policy. The public
transport system is assumed to be the same as trend
policy, as the BRTS is a committed project already under
implementation. Since this policy is private automobileoriented, the bicycling infrastructure (which uses roads)
also benefits from capacity expansion, while the
pedestrian infrastructure remains the same as base
2001. However, the combined effect on the infrastructure
for slow modes is that speeds decrease in walled city, and
increase in inner and outer zones over base 2001. In other
words, better speeds are assumed in inner zones and
much better in outer zones, as compared to trend policy.
Key attributes of the inputs for all policies are
summarised in Table 6. Details of employment and
dwelling inputs by zones are shown in Appendices A and
B and details of transport inputs are shown in Appendix C
(with base 2001 included in all for comparison) (Fig. 32).
7. Summary of modelling outputs
SIMPLAN model has been run for the various urban
planning policies. However, for simplicity, only one of
the variations for each of the 2021 alternatives is
reported in detail: these are trend (TR21 ED63-37),
compaction (CC21 D90-10), and dispersal (DS21 D1090) (see Table 17). Key outputs of other policies are
presented in the section on sensitivity analysis (Section
8.0), with base 2001 outputs included for comparison.
7.1. Land use outputs
It can be seen from Fig. 33, which presents percentage
change in average housing rents in trend policy compared
to base 2001 and compaction and dispersal compared to
trend, that the overall average housing rents have
increased in the range of eight to 10% in the period
157
from 2001 to 2021. In trend policy, rents have increased

in all except two zones, which have marginal reductions.
In zone 3, the most affluent zone in Ahmedabad, rent has
gone down by about 0.9% (see Table 7). The reason for
this is that the adjoining zones (i.e., zones 18 and 19) have
become rather preferred zones for the affluent and hence
the overall demand for housing in zone 3 has gone down.
In similar vein, the development of zones 13 and 20
(mainly underdeveloped areas in 2001) over the 20-year
period has reduced the demand in zone 21.
An interesting spatial pattern of percentage change
in rents emerges when the two diametrically opposite
policies are compared to trend policy. Rents increase in
the outer zones in compaction policy. This is because
the inner zones have a huge supply of dwellings,
causing the rents to reduce, with the opposite effect in
outer zones created due to lesser dwelling supply. A
similar pattern is observed in dispersal policy, but the
pattern is more of an eastwest divide, rather than inner
and outer zones, owing to a larger supply of housing in
western zones (especially outer zones).
Examining Table 8 (part A), which presents average
housing rents by SEGs, it can be seen that in trend
policy, the effect of rent changes over base year is
getting more pronounced as one moves from SEG1 to
SEG4. In terms of average housing rents compared to
trend policy, compaction policy is beneficial for SEG3
and SEG4, while dispersal policy is beneficial to SEG1.
This is because in the inner zones in compaction policy,
where there is more supply of dwellings, there are about
79% of SEG3 and SEG4 households locating, bringing
down the average rents (as against 76% and 67% in
trend and dispersal policies, respectively (see Table 9).
On the other hand, in dispersal policy, wherein the
supply of dwellings is more in outer zones, 53% of the
SEG1 and SEG2 households are locating, pushing the
rents down (as against 39% and 32%, respectively, for
trend and compaction policies). In general, the pattern
of housing floorspace consumption (see Table 8, part B)
is the reverse of that of rent, as in pure economic terms
these are inversely proportional, ceteris paribus.
A summary of the key overall demographics is
included in Table 10; the population per zone for the
alternative policies by sub-regions and zones is
presented in Table 11; and gross population densities
are presented in Table 12. It can be seen that, in general,
in terms of percentage change, population increases
more in trend policy in the outer zones than in the inner
zones. This is in tune with the observed trend of
dispersal tendency of Ahmedabad. As expected, the
population increases more in the inner zones in
compaction policy and in the outer zones in dispersal
158
Fig. 33. Housing rentsbase 2001 and alternatives policies.
policy. Indicators to measure the change in spatial

structure from 1971 to 2001 and 2021 modelled values
are shown in Fig. 34. Calculation details are shown in
Appendix D.
7.2. Transport outputs
Transport outputs are presented in Table 13 as
passenger-kilometres travelled (by SEG and by mode),
average trip distance and time (by SEG and by mode),
and modal split. Expectedly, both the passengerkilometre and average trip distance and time are lowest
in compaction policy and highest in dispersal policy.
Although the average trip time (ATT) is highest in
dispersal policy, its percentage change with respect to
trend is much lower than average trip distance (ATD),
because of higher average travel speeds. The pattern
reverses in compaction policy, but not with a
corresponding decrease in ATT, due to lower speeds.
However, in case of public transport the proportionate
159
Table 7
Average housing rents by zones.
Zone
Base 2001
TR21
% Change: TR21
vs. base 2001
CC21
% Change: CC21
vs. TR21
DS21
% Change: DS21
vs. TR21
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12a
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2,380
2,957
3,531
2,566
2,355
1,950
2,447
2,282
1,438
2,152
2,045
2,675
3,195
3,499
2,718
2,519
2,156
2,542
2,507
1,689
2,165
2,072
12.4
8.1
0.9
5.9
7.0
10.6
3.9
9.9
17.5
0.6
1.3
2,663
3,187
3,731
2,670
2,502
2,073
2,524
2,392
1,558
2,023
2,052
0.4
0.3
6.6
1.8
0.7
3.8
0.7
4.6
7.8
6.5
1.0
2,663
2,904
3,482
2,653
2,439
2,207
2,722
2,551
1,787
2,318
2,263
0.4
9.1
0.5
2.4
3.2
2.4
7.1
1.8
5.8
7.1
9.2
2,606
1,705
1,913
2,196
1,783
2,828
2,199
2,378
2,386
2,711
1,950
2,169
2,335
2,103
3,121
2,987
2,663
2,344
4.0
14.4
13.4
6.3
17.9
10.4
35.8
12.0
1.8
2,594
1,976
2,173
2,672
2,353
3,559
3,344
2,565
2,411
4.3
1.3
0.2
14.4
11.9
14.0
12.0
3.7
2.9
3,001
1,997
2,214
2,246
1,728
2,875
2,741
2,364
2,338
10.7
2.4
2.1
3.8
17.8
7.9
8.2
11.3
0.3
Avg.
2,313
2,520
8.9
2,538
0.7
2,508
0.5
Values for zone 12 are not reported.
Table 8
Housing rents and dwelling floorspace consumed by SEG.
Zone
Base 2001
TR21
% Change: TR21
vs. base 2001
A. Average monthly households rent (Rs, 2001 prices)

SEG1
3,800
3,958
4.2
SEG2
2,743
2,894
5.5
SEG3
2,214
2,377
7.4
SEG4
1,665
1,801
8.2
ALL
2,313
2,520
8.9
CC21
% Change: CC21
vs. TR21
DS21
% Change: DS21
vs. TR21
4,188
2,929
2,359
1,776
2,538
5.8
1.2
0.8
1.4
0.7
3,726
2,903
2,401
1,803
2,508
5.9
0.3
1.0
0.1
0.5
B. Average floorspace/dwelling consumed (m2)

SEG1
70.8
77.0
8.7
SEG2
54.5
58.9
8.2
SEG3
45.2
48.1
6.6
SEG4
34.5
36.2
4.7
ALL
46.4
50.7
9.1
75.0
58.5
48.5
36.8
50.7
reduction in ATD is substantial, benefiting from a

superior public transport system (see Table 14). It
should be noted that the overall ATD from base to trend
has reduced. This is unusual, but it may be attributed to
a combined effect of two factors. Firstly, the dispersal of
jobs to outer areas has meant a reduction in ATD for
outer to inner and outer to outer zones work trips (see
Table 15). Secondly, there have been improvements in
the road network in the trend policy, especially in outer
zones (e.g., some new road links and better intra-zonal
roads), which has slightly reduced the network distance

as compared to the base year.
The modal split, both overall and by sub-regions, is
presented in Table 16 (along with the average trip
lengths for reference) and Fig. 35. The overall modal
split for the alternative policies is as expected. In that,
the share of private automobile is increasing from 2001
to 2021 for both trend and dispersal policies.
Owing to a better public transport system in all
alternative policies than the base year, the share of public
2.5
0.8
0.7
1.9
0.0
79.0
58.7
47.6
36.3
50.7
2.6
0.3
1.0
0.4
0.0
160
Table 9
Households by income groups in sub-regions.
Sub-regions
Base 2001
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
High-income group (SEG1 and SEG2)

Inner zones
192,953 (63%)
Outer zones
111,380 (37%)
Sub-total
304,333
290,784 (61%)
182,349 (39%)
473,133
323,032 (68%)
150,101 (32%)
473,133
220,813 (47%)
252,320 (53%)
473,133
Low-income group (SEG3 and SEG4)

Inner zones
511,309 (75%)
Outer zones
170,402 (25%)
Sub-total
681,711
648,728 (75%)
211,690 (25%)
860,418
679,725 (79%)
180,693 (21%)
860,418
570,235 (66%)
290,183 (34%)
860,418
Total
986,043
1,333,552
1,333,552
1,333,552
Table 10
Summary of key demographics.
Item
2001
2021
Employment
Resident workers
Households
Population
1,570,399
1,500,068
986,043
4,941,905
2,131,828
2,038,434
1,333,552
6,410,819
Table 11
Populationbase 2001 and alternative policies (thousands).
Base 2001
TR21
CC21
DS21
% Change
TR21 vs. base 2001
By sub-regions
Inner
3,520
Outer
1,422
Total
4,942
By zones
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Total
372.63
178.53
127.35
369.48
205.16
585.63
194.11
557.47
226.77
345.28
357.67
14.71
10.61
54.73
84.28
44.37
48.17
270.57
290.36
136.77
467.26
4,942
4,517
1,894
6,411
425.16
278.53
214.60
533.65
227.75
562.74
314.87
682.88
217.44
509.81
549.12
27.11
22.89
68.87
108.71
86.79
87.29
447.31
315.12
205.78
524.40
6,411
4,821
1,590
6,411
434.40
298.20
261.46
576.32
231.17
569.52
348.85
708.21
216.76
563.54
612.14
21.84
17.32
46.23
81.93
57.14
62.69
396.06
307.22
153.24
446.56
6,411
3,803
2,608
6,411
407.56
204.16
159.80
411.27
218.09
531.55
245.81
646.41
195.64
377.59
404.95
25.06
41.89
99.84
143.59
139.51
128.11
792.20
374.87
278.73
584.18
6,411
CC21 vs. TR21
DS21 vs. TR21
28
33
30
7
16
0
16
38
0
14
56
69
44
11
4
62
22
4
48
54
84
116
26
29
96
81
65
9
50
12
2
7
22
8
2
1
11
4
0
11
11
19
24
33
25
34
28
11
3
26
15
4
27
26
23
4
6
22
5
10
26
26
8
83
45
32
61
47
77
19
35
11
30
161
Table 12
Population densitiesbase 2001 and alternative policies (gross density in persons per hectare).
Sub-region
Base 2001
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
Inner zones
Outer zones
Overall
190
40
92
243
54
119
260
45
119
205
74
119
Table 13
Summary of transport outputs by SEG.
Item
Base 2001
Work trips (same as no. of resident workers)

SEG1
125,857
SEG2
337,125
SEG3
618,931
SEG4
418,155
ALL
1,500,068
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
208,381
514,838
784,663
530,552
2,038,434
208,381
514,838
784,663
530,552
2,038,434
208,381
514,838
784,663
530,552
2,038,434
Work trip passenger-km [millions] (one-way/day)

SEG1
1.09
SEG2
2.54
SEG3
3.55
SEG4
2.14
ALL
9.32
% Change vs. base
% Change vs. trend
1.59
3.48
4.08
2.60
11.75
26%
1.35
3.27
3.93
2.60
11.15
20%
5%
2.45
3.61
4.17
3.67
13.91
49%
18%
Average work trip distance [km] (one-way)

SEG1
8.69
SEG2
7.52
SEG3
5.74
SEG4
5.12
ALL
6.21
% Change vs. base
% Change vs. trend
7.63
6.75
5.20
4.90
5.76
7%
6.46
6.36
5.00
4.89
5.47
12%
5%
11.77
7.01
5.32
6.93
6.82
10%
18%
Average work trip time [min] (one-way)

SEG1
SEG2
SEG3
SEG4
ALL
% Change vs. base
% Change vs. trend
49.40
45.54
37.78
37.30
40.81
5%
40.76
41.60
35.74
36.19
37.85
12%
7%
65.27
43.65
35.58
44.96
43.09
0%
6%
55.37
49.00
40.15
38.86
43.06
transport has increased markedly, with highest in

compaction policy (attributed to a superior public
transport system than trend and dispersal policies). Slow
modes have shown an overall decrease over the 20-year
period, which is generally as expected, because of
increase in incomes (translating to either higher vehicle
ownership or higher affordability for using public
transport). Though dispersed policy has higher highway
capacity (and thus higher average travel speed, especially
for private automobile (see Table 14)), the share of
private automobile compared to trend policy has not
increased significantly (only about 2%). In theory, this
analysis be more, owing to lower generalised costs due to
higher speeds. However, since a network-based congestion assignment model is beyond the scope of this study,
this effect is not modelled accurately, and is therefore a
limitation. However, any standard commercially available transport model with network modelling capability
could be used for this purpose.
The variations by sub-regions are also generally as
expected. For shorter commutes (i.e., inner to inner
zones) the share of private automobile and slow modes
has decreased for all alternative policies, compensated by
and attributable to a better public transport system than
base year. For the second category of shorter commutes
(i.e., outer to outer zones) the simulated existence of a
162
Fig. 34. Spatial indicators for alternative policies.
superior public transport system has not decreased the

share of private automobile; however, it has had a
substantial reduction in the share of slow modes. This
could be attributed to better speeds in outer zones in
general. With regard to the longest commuting trips (i.e.,
outer to inner zones), the share of private automobile for
all alternative policies has gone down, compensated for
by an increase in public transport and slow modes. On the
other hand, for the second longest commuting category
(i.e., inner to outer zones), the superior public transport
system has not had an effect on reducing the share of
private automobile, except for compaction policy. It
would therefore appear that public transport is a more
preferred mode for journeys beyond a certain threshold.
In the case of Ahmedabad, the inner to outer zone
commutes (averaged over all modes) for all alternatives
range from 13 to 17 km, while the average outer to inner
zone commutes range from 18 to 19 km (see Table 15).
Therefore, such a threshold could be around 17 km in the
case of Ahmedabad.
8. Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity on two accounts has been tested. The first
is with regard to variation in physical aspects, such as
allocation of dwellings and employment, and the second

is income variation, discussed in the following sections.
8.1. Variation in dwellings and employment
allocation
As mentioned before, several variations of the
alternative planning policies for 2021 were tested to see
the effects of variations in dwellings and employment
distribution. For each of compaction and dispersal
policies, three other alternatives were developed with
the same employment and different dwelling inputs and
one set of inputs with both employment and dwelling
inputs different from trend policy. As mentioned before,
several variations of employment and dwelling inputs
were tested, but only key input sets (nine) are presented
in Table 17.
A summary of key outputs is presented in Table 18.
In compaction policy with same employment but
different dwelling allocations (columns df), it can
be seen that an extreme version (i.e., having all of the
new dwelling in inner zones, CC D100-0) is more
favourable in terms of overall passenger-kilometres and
average trip distance and time, but least favourable in
terms of speed, which is attributable to more conges-
163
Table 14
Summary of transport outputs by mode.
Item
Base 2001
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
3.68
4.07
4.00
11.75
2.98
4.63
3.54
11.15
4.87
4.46
4.59
13.91
5.61
7.31
4.84
5.76
4.99
7.21
4.43
5.47
7.03
8.57
5.56
6.82
Average work trip distance [min] (one-way)

Private auto
29.02
Public transport
64.66
Slow
44.29
ALL
43.05
26.23
54.97
42.82
40.81
24.83
47.47
39.85
37.85
27.06
60.67
45.47
43.09
Average work trip time [min] (one-way)

Private auto
13.82
Public transport
7.03
Slow
6.95
ALL
8.66
12.82
7.98
6.79
8.47
12.05
9.12
6.67
8.67
15.58
8.47
7.33
9.50
Work trip passenger-km [millions] (one-way/day)

Private auto
3.65
Public transport
2.41
Slow
3.26
ALL
9.32
Average work trip length [km] (one-way)
Private auto
6.68
Public transport
7.58
Slow
5.13
ALL
6.21
Table 15
Average work trip lengths by origindestination (km).
Policy
Living in
Job in
ALL
Inner
Outer
Base 2001
Inner
Outer
ALL
4.04
21.30
5.91
12.19
7.43
7.44
4.05
11.64
6.21
Trend 2021
Inner
Outer
ALL
4.49
19.10
5.51
14.24
6.48
6.54
4.52
8.72
5.76
Compaction 2021
Inner
Outer
ALL
4.77
17.75
5.03
16.70
6.32
6.83
4.96
7.01
5.47
Dispersal 2021
Inner
Outer
ALL
3.73
18.37
6.87
12.97
6.68
6.68
3.74
11.33
6.82
tion. In terms of average housing rents, this policy is

least favourable but most favourable in terms of work
travel costs, due to lowest average trip distance and
time. An exact mirror image is depicted in dispersal
policy. In other words, the mildest version of dispersal
policy (i.e., having 80% of new dwellings in outer
zones, DS D20-80) is more favourable in more aspects
than an extreme version. However, interestingly, in
terms of economic benefits, the picture is different
(discussed in Section 9.4 as part of the assessment of
other alternative policies for sensitivity analysis).
With regard to those versions of compaction and

dispersal policies (in which employment is also altered
compared to trend policy, i.e., CC ED92-08 and DS
ED22-78, respectively), dispersal policy has lower
passenger-kilometres, ATD and ATT as compared to
trend. This may seem counter-intuitive at first, but the
reason for this is that dispersing employment to outer
zones has resulted into shorter commutes (i.e., more
people are living as well as working in outer zones). On
the other hand, concentrating most of the new
employment in inner zones in compaction policy has
164
Table 16
Modal split aggregated by OD (work trips).
Item
Modal split
a
Average trip length (km)
BS01 (%)
TR21 (%)
CC21 (%)
DS21 (%)
BS01
TR21
CC21
DS21
28.9
17.4
53.8
32.2
27.3
40.5
29.3
31.5
39.3
34.0
25.5
40.5
6.68
7.58
5.13
5.61
7.31
4.84
4.99
7.21
4.43
7.03
8.57
5.56
Inner to inner zones

PA
35.9
PT
21.1
SL
43.0
32.6
28.1
39.3
29.0
32.7
38.3
33.6
24.1
42.2
4.37
4.33
3.62
4.53
5.58
3.68
4.38
6.33
3.73
3.91
4.06
3.41
Inner to outer zones

PA
25.1
PT
16.8
SL
58.1
28.4
40.1
31.6
19.3
60.0
20.7
35.3
30.2
34.4
12.21
12.17
12.19
13.74
15.10
13.62
14.69
18.12
14.46
12.93
13.27
12.74
Outer to inner zones

PA
52.1
PT
28.7
SL
19.1
29.2
40.4
30.4
23.5
50.1
26.4
36.6
36.0
27.4
21.16
23.66
18.98
18.38
20.94
17.35
16.29
19.61
15.52
18.31
19.53
16.92
Outer to outer zones

PA
28.3
PT
10.8
SL
60.9
31.7
22.2
46.1
31.0
24.9
44.2
33.1
22.0
44.9
7.55
9.62
6.50
6.19
8.15
5.87
5.93
7.93
5.67
6.47
8.66
5.86
Overall
PA
PT
SL
Key: BS01: base 2001; PA: private automobile (two-wheeler, car); PT: public transport (bus); and SL: slow (bicycle, walk).
a
Base year values are from LBGC (2001).
resulted in longer commutes than its counterpart

dispersal policy. This is because some of the outer
zones have higher housing attractiveness, implying that
SEG1 and SEG2 households prefer to locate in these
zones but have jobs in inner zones. However, both these
policies do not fare well in the economic benefits
(discussed in Section 9.4).
8.2. Variation in income
As shown in Fig. 31, it was assumed that incomes
increase in real terms. However, if a scenario were
envisaged where the income levels in 2021 remained the
same at 2001 level in real terms, then these would have
some variation on the outputs. These have been
presented in Table 19. It should be noted that for
simplicity this has been tested only for policies CC D9010 and DS D10-90 (i.e., the policies presented in detail
in Section 7.0).
From Table 19, it can be seen that if incomes do not
increase in real terms, then as a consequence, the
average housing consumption reduces slightly more for
higher income groups and less for lower income groups,
with a corresponding reduction in average housing rents
for all alternative policies. A slight increase in average
trip distance and time is noticed. A plausible explanation that could be offered for this is that to compensate
for lower incomes, households locate a bit further
(implying cheaper housing rents) in order to satisfy their
total household budget, whilst deriving the same level
of satisfaction (or utility). The increase in work travel
costs are in line with the increase in average trip
distance and time. The change in modal split is
insignificant. Changes in the economic benefits for both
the scenarios are discussed in Section 9.4.
9. Assessment of alternative planning policies
Assessment, in the context of planning policies, is
the process in which various pro and cons of the
outcomes of alternative policies are estimated (quantitatively and/or qualitatively), in order to create a
comparative picture of the alternative policies. The term
assessment is usually used ex-ante, while evaluation
is preferred ex-post. The assessment process produces
distilled information that helps improve the decisionmaking process by providing decision makers with an
objective framework from which a desired policy could
be chosen for adoption, or combinations thereof can be
developed for further testing.
165
Fig. 35. Modal split aggregated by OD (work-trips).
9.1. Economic assessment

9.1.1. Housing and work travel costs
Key economic outputs from the model are average
housing rents and work travel costswhich together
could be seen as constituting the bulk of the cost of
livingpresented in Table 20. Other costs, like nonwork travel, food, clothing, etc., are assumed to be the
same across alternative policies for the purpose of
assessment in this study.
It can be seen from Table 20 that, as expected, the
average housing rents per household have increased in
absolute terms (in the range of eight to 10%). Although
the differences in average housing rent for 2021 policies
are marginal, the highest rent is in compaction policy
and the lowest is in dispersal policy. The work travel

cost includes out-of-pocket expense and value of time
based on the income of workers. The average transport
cost per household in trend policy has reduced. The
prime reason for this is that the introduction of the
BRTS (which is present in all alternative policies, but
did not exist in the base year) has contributed to the
overall travel time savings. Comparing the three
alternative policies, since the average work trip distance
and time are highest in dispersal policy and lowest in
compaction policy, expectedly, the work travel cost per
household is also highest and lowest, respectively. The
total costs (i.e., rents plus work travel, which constitute
the bulk of the cost of living) as compared to trend
policy, are lower in compaction and higher in dispersal,
166
Table 17
Summary of inputs for 2021 policies.
Items
TR21
ED63-37
(%)
CC21 variations (with same

employment, but different
dwellings)
DS21 variations (with same

employment, but different
dwellings)
CC21 Diff emp and

dwellings
DS21 Diff emp and

dwellings
CC
D80-20
(%)
CC
D90-10
(%)
DS
D20-80
(%)
DS
D10-90
(%)
CC
ED92-08
(%)
DS
ED22-78
(%)
CC
D100-0
(%)
DS
D0-100
(%)
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
92
22
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
78
80
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
83
65
20
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
17
35
63
80
90
100
20
10
92
22
37
20
10
80
90
100
78
70
68
73
75
78
57
55
52
76
58
30
32
27
25
22
43
45
48
24
42
Totals: Employment 2001 = 1,500,068; 2021 = 2,038,434; dwellings 2001 = 966,323; 2021 = 1,301,806.
Increments: Employment 2021 = 538,366; dwellings 2021 = 335,483; Key: diff = different; emp = employment.
Employment increment:
inner zones
Employment increment:
outer zones
Employment total:
inner zones
Employment total:
outer zones
Dwelling increment:
inner zones
Dwelling increment:
outer zones
Dwelling total:
inner zones
Dwelling total:
outer zones
Base
2001 (%)
167
the latter being attributed to higher work travel costs.

However, dispersal policy yields higher economic
benefits, as explained in the next section.
9.1.2. Consumer and producer surplus in housing rent
In the above section, the costs to the citizens of
Ahmedabad were analysed. However, as a society, these
costs are incurred by consumers and accrued to suppliers
(or producers). Therefore, these costs do not give a
complete picture of the net economic benefits or welfare
to society as a whole. In order to do so, the surplus to
society has to be estimated. This surplus can be split into
two, based on which group it accrues to: the consumers or
the producers. Consumer surplus is the difference
between what consumers are willing to pay for a good
(or service) and what they actually pay (represented by
the area labelled consumer surplus in Fig. 36). The
producer surplus can be defined as the difference between
the price for which a producer would be willing to
provide a good (or service) and the actual price at which
the good (or service) is sold (represented by the area
labelled producer surplus in Fig. 36). Consumer surplus
and producer surplus definitions are adapted from
Samuelson and Nordhaus (2001), Perloff (2004), Katz
and Rosen (2005), and Krugman and Wells (2005).
To estimate the total consumer surplus, the demand
curves in Fig. 31 can be used. However, unfortunately,
there are no past studies in Ahmedabad available on the
elasticity of housing supply from which supply curves
can be estimated. Therefore, a rather simplistic
assumption is made: if the price is zero there would
be no supply of housing.3 In other words, the supply
curve, assumed to be a straight line, would pass through
the origin and point E (see Fig. 36). In this case, the
producer surplus in zone i by household of SEG type m
is simply half of the expenditure (or revenue).
In SIMPLAN, the housing demand is given by the
following equation (see Fig. 31):
pm
i pmax expbq
(11)
Fig. 36. Consumer and producer surplus.
Fig. 37. Change in consumer surplus.
The consumer surplus (for zone i by household of

SEG type m) can be calculated as:
CSm
i
Zqe
pmax expbqdq pe qe
(12)
0
3
This may not be entirely true, as even at some unit price greater
than zero, producers would not be willing to supply housing if that
unit price is lower than unit production costs. However, this threshold
value (which is the intercept of the supply curve on the unit price axis)
will vary depending on the location, as the land cost is one of the
biggest components of unit price (while construction costs are usually
fairly uniform across the city). In addition, there could be changes in
the threshold value if zoning regulations vary by location. Therefore,
it would not be appropriate to have an average threshold for the study
area as a whole. In absence of any substantial information, based on
which such a threshold for each zone can be estimated, this rather
simplistic assumption has been made.
Producer surplus as explained above is calculated as:

PSm
i
1
pq
2 e e
(13)
The total consumer and producer surplus can be

estimated, respectively, as:
XX
CSm
(14)
i
m
168
Table 18
Sensitivity analysisdwellings and employment variations.
Base 2001
TR21 ED63-37
CC21 variations (with same employment,

but different dwellings)
DS21 variations (with same employment,

CC21 Diff emp

and dwellings
DS21 Diff emp

and dwellings
CC D80-20
d
CC D90-10
e
CC D100-0
f
DS D20-80
g
DS D10-90
h
DS D0-100
i
CC ED92-08
j
DS ED22-78
k
Passenger-km [millions]
% Change vs. trend
ATL [km]
% Change vs. trend
ATL [min]
% Change vs. trend
Speed [km/h]
% Change vs. trend
Modal split: PA [%]
Modal split: PT [%]
Modal split: SL [%]
Rent [Rs/month]
% Change vs. trend
Transport cost [Rs/month]
% Change vs. trend
Cost of living [Rs/month]
% Change vs. trend
9.32
6.21
43.05
8.66
28.9%
17.4%
53.8%
2,313
2,749
5,061
11.75
5.76
40.81
8.47
32.2%
27.3%
40.5%
2,520
2,613
5,132
11.49
2.2%
5.64
2.2%
38.7
5.1%
8.73
3.1%
29.3%
31.5%
39.2%
2,531
0.5%
2,469
5.5%
5,000
2.6%
11.15
5.1%
5.47
5.1%
37.8
7.2%
8.67
2.3%
29.3%
31.5%
39.3%
2,538
0.7%
2,412
7.7%
4,950
3.5%
11.06
5.9%
5.42
5.9%
37.7
7.6%
8.64
1.9%
29.2%
31.8%
39.0%
2,544
1.0%
2,401
8.1%
4,945
3.6%
13.46
14.6%
6.60
14.6%
42.1
3.1%
9.42
11.1%
33.9%
25.4%
40.6%
2,512
0.3%
2,761
5.7%
5,273
2.7%
13.91
18.4%
6.82
18.4%
43.1
5.6%
9.50
12.1%
34.0%
25.5%
40.5%
2,508
0.5%
2,832
8.4%
5,339
4.0%
14.40
22.6%
7.07
22.6%
44.3
8.5%
9.58
13.1%
34.0%
25.7%
40.3%
2,502
0.7%
2,912
11.4%
5,414
5.5%
11.71
0.3%
5.75
0.3%
39.7
2.6%
8.68
2.4%
29.1%
32.3%
38.6%
2,522
0.1%
2,527
3.3%
5,049
1.6%
11.43
2.7%
5.61
2.7%
36.3
11.0%
9.27
9.4%
33.6%
24.3%
42.1%
2,525
0.2%
2,373
9.2%
4,899
4.5%
Note: Results for CC D90-10 and DS D10-90 are given for comparison; Key: diff: different; emp: employment.
Items
169
Table 19
Sensitivity analysisincome variation.
Items
SEG1: dwelling size consumed (m )

SEG2: dwelling size consumed (m2)
Passenger-km [millions]
ATL [km]
ATL [min]
Speed [km/h]
Modal split: private auto [%]
Modal split: public transport [%]
Modal split: slow [%]
Rent [Rs/month]
Transport cost [Rs/month]
Cost of living [Rs/month]
Real income increase scenario
No real income increase scenario
% Change
TR21
TR21
No real income increase vs.

real income increase
77.0
58.9
48.1
36.2
11.75
5.76
40.81
8.47
32.2%
27.3%
40.5%
2,520
2,613
5,132
CC21
75.0
58.5
48.5
36.8
11.15
5.47
37.8
8.67
29.3%
31.5%
39.3%
2,538
2,412
4,950
DS21
79.0
58.7
47.6
36.3
13.91
6.82
43.1
9.50
34.0%
25.5%
40.5%
2,508
2,832
5,339
71.6
54.9
45.0
34.0
12.11
5.94
41.78
8.53
32.1%
27.6%
40.2%
2,361
2,676
5,037
CC21
69.9
54.5
45.4
34.5
11.42
5.60
38.5
8.72
29.2%
31.8%
39.0%
2,376
2,456
4,832
DS21
73.3
54.7
44.6
34.0
14.27
7.00
44.0
9.55
34.0%
25.7%
40.2%
2,349
2,894
5,244
TR21
CC21
DS21
7.0%
6.9%
6.4%
6.0%
3.1%
3.1%
2.4%
0.7%
0.1%
1.1%
0.7%
6.3%
2.4%
1.9%
6.9%
6.8%
6.4%
6.3%
2.5%
2.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
0.9%
0.6%
6.4%
1.8%
2.4%
7.2%
6.8%
6.3%
6.2%
2.6%
2.6%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.8%
0.6%
6.3%
2.2%
1.8%
Table 20
Summary of housing rent and work travel costs (Rs, 2001 prices).
Indicator
Base 2001
TR21
CC21
DS21
[a] Monthly households rent cost

Total
% Change vs. base
% Change vs. trend
2,313
2,520
8.9%
2,538
9.7%
0.75%
2,508
8.4%
0.47%
[b] Monthly households transport cost for work trips (incl. time)
Total
2,749
% Change vs. base
% Change vs. trend
2,613
4.9%
2,412
12.3%
7.7%
2,832
3.0%
8.4%
[c] Monthly households cost of living [a + b]

Total
5,061
% Change vs. base
% Change vs. trend
5,132
1.4%
4,950
2.2%
3.5%
5,339
5.5%
4.0%
XX
m
PSm
i
(15)
However, it is not necessary to calculate the total

consumer surplus as discussed above, since only the
change in these quantities is important. Alternatively,
the change in consumer surplus can be calculated by
using the rule of a half (see Fig. 37) as a reasonably
accurate approximation. It can be shown that the area
labelled change in consumer surplus in Fig. 37 is given
by Eq. (16). For the sake of consistency with consumer
surplus in transport, which has been calculated using the
rule of a half (see Section 9.1.3), the consumer surplus
in housing rent is also calculated by the same method.
1
DCS q0 q1 p0 p1
2
(16)
where DCS is the change in consumer surplus; q, p are

demand and price, respectively; 0, 1 are sub-scripts
indicating a reference (datum) policy and an alternative
policy, respectively. Eq. (16) has to be suitably modified
to Eq. (17), to include the households to calculate
overall quantities of change in housing rent consumer
surplus for the modelled area.
1
m
m
DCSm
i qT Hi;T qA Hi;A pT pA
2
(17)
where DCSm
i is the change in housing rent consumer
surplus in zone i by SEG type m; q, p are demand (m2/
dwelling) and price (monthly unit rent in Rs/m2),
respectively (from Fig. 31); Him is the households in
zone i by SEG type m; T, A are sub-scripts indicating
170
Table 21
Change in housing rent consumer and producer surplus (million Rs/
month, 2001 prices).
Indicator
CC21 vs. TR21
DS21 vs. TR21
Change in consumer surplus

SEG1
38.01
SEG2
16.30
SEG3
12.12
SEG3
12.81
ALL
29.38
50.24
9.88
15.16
12.00
32.96
Change in producer surplus

SEG1
15.68
SEG2
5.96
SEG3
4.63
SEG3
4.44
ALL
12.57
15.83
1.56
5.94
0.35
7.98
16.81
24.98
Total (welfare)
trend policy and an alternative policy (compaction or

dispersal policy in this case), respectively.
The total change in housing rent consumer surplus is
then given by:
XX
DCSm
(18)
i
m
The change in consumer and producer surpluses

(using Eqs. (17) and (15), respectively) for each
alternative policy against the trend policy is shown in
Table 21, with differences between trend and alternative
policies by SEG shown in Fig. 38.
It can be seen that the change in consumer surplus
with respect to trend is highest in dispersal policy and
lowest in compaction policy. From the graphical
comparison presented in Fig. 38, as compared to trend
policy, dispersal turns out to be significantly better for
SEG1 and SEG2, while compaction is better for SEG3
and SEG4. The overall explanation that could be offered
Fig. 38. Housing consumer and producer surplus by SEG.

Table 22
Average housing rent by SEG and sub-region (Rs/month, 2001 prices).
SEG and sub-region
Base 2001
TR21
CC21
DS21
SEG1
Inner zones
Outer zones
ALL
3,993
3,564
3,800
3,989
3,924
3,958
4,030
4,435
4,188
4,097
3,639
3,726
SEG2
Inner zones
Outer zones
ALL
2,797
2,634
2,743
2,927
2,832
2,894
2,856
3,111
2,929
3,067
2,679
2,903
SEG3
Inner zones
Outer zones
ALL
2,235
2,162
2,214
2,393
2,336
2,377
2,311
2,518
2,359
2,474
2,241
2,401
SEG4
Inner zones
Outer zones
ALL
1,673
1,634
1,665
1,802
1,801
1,801
1,753
1,883
1,776
1,834
1,752
1,803
Overall
Inner zones
Outer zones
ALL
2,292
2,364
2,313
2,466
2,648
2,520
2,425
2,883
2,538
2,496
2,525
2,508
for this is that, in dispersal policy, a higher proportion of

wealthier households (SEG1 and SEG2) prefer to live in
peripheral areas (see Table 9) as depicted by their ATD
(see Table 13) and hence benefit from the lower rents
(see Table 22) and consequently more per capita space
171
(see Table 9). The scenario is reversed in compaction

policy, in which a higher proportion of poorer households (SEG3 and SEG4) prefer to live in inner zones,
thereby benefiting from lower rents in inner zones as
compared to dispersal policy.
If the change in consumer and producer surplus by
inner and outer zones is graphed, then an interesting
pattern emerges (see Fig. 39). Consumer surplus is
positive for compaction in inner zones and negative for
outer zones, while for dispersal, it is negative in inner
zones and positive in outer zones. The change in
producer surplus nearly exhibits the same patterns as
consumer surplus, but reverses for inner and outer
zones. In overall terms, housing suppliers benefit more
in compaction because of spatial monopoly powers,
which is not the case in dispersal policy.
9.1.3. Consumer surplus in transport
The change in transport consumer surplus can be
given using the rule of a half (see Fig. 37), which
requires passenger-kilometre and average generalised
cost per trip as tabulated in Table 23 (base 2001 values
are presented for comparison). It should be noted that
since this calculation uses the aggregated passengerkilometre, there is no need to carry out the calculation
by household (or trip makers), as in the case of
consumer surplus in housing rent. Eq. (16) can be
suitably modified to Eq. (19) for calculating the change
in transport consumer surplus. The overall change is
Table 23
Summary of consumer surplus in transport.
Indicator
TR21
CC21
DS21
[q] Passenger-km (millions, one-way per day)

Private auto
Public transport
Slow
ALL
3.68
4.07
4.00
11.75
2.98
4.63
3.54
11.15
4.87
4.46
4.59
13.91
[p] Generalised cost per trip including timea (Rs/km) (2001 prices)
Private auto
5.60
Public transport
6.24
Slow
6.65
ALL
6.18
5.82
5.56
6.77
6.01
4.98
5.87
6.16
5.65
Change in transport consumer surplus (million Rs one-way per day, 2001 prices)
CC21 vs. TR21
DS21 vs. TR21
Private auto
Public transport
Slow
0.74
2.98
0.44
2.63
1.60
2.09
1.80
6.32
Total
a
Value of time (VOT) is from the MSM. This is different from the VOT in RLM, which is by SEG. As a sensitivity test, using the weighted average
VOT from RLM, the change in transport consumer surplus (vs. trend) for compaction and dispersal works out to be 1.59 and 4.29, compared to 1.80
and 6.32, respectively. Although the magnitudes are different, as expected, the direction of change is the same.
172
Fig. 39. Housing consumer and producer surplus by SEG and sub-region.
then given as
k DCS
users in outer areas, where normal buses would share

the road infrastructure with other modes.
1
DCSk qkT qkA pkT pkT
2
(19)
where DCSk is the change in transport consumer surplus

by mode k; qk is the demand (in passenger-kilometre,
one-way per day) by mode k; pk is the price or generalised cost of travel including time per trip (in Rs/km) by
mode k; T, A are sub-scripts indicating trend policy and
an alternative policy (compaction or dispersal policy in
this case), respectively.
It can be seen that in compaction policy, owning to
the superior public transport system, the consumer
surplus in public transport in much higher than in trend
policy, but road-based modes are less beneficial than in
trend. In dispersal policy, road-based modes are more
beneficial, owing to higher investments in road transport
infrastructure. In addition, this road infrastructure
investment has proved beneficial to public transport
9.1.4. Estimates of costs

It is important to estimate the costs for the 2021
alternative planning policies to calculate the net
economic benefit. Since the population is the same
for all alternative policies, the overall cost of population-based infrastructuresuch as water supply, sewerage treatment, other civic amenities like public
schools, parks and gardens, etc.is assumed to remain
more or less the same across the alternative policies. For
example, theoretically, although in compaction policy,
the underground infrastructure (such as water supply,
sewerage, telecom, etc.) could be shorter, its installation
in already well-developed and populated areas is more
expensive. On the other hand, in dispersal policy it
could be lengthier, but with lower installation costs, due
to vacant or less developed areas. A similar argument
would also apply to roads. In addition, it is acknowl-
173
Table 24
Estimates of transport costs (million Rs, 2001 prices).
Item
BRTS costs
Capital cost (basic) [2006]
Capital cost (basic) [2001]
Cost increase factor
Capital cost (modified) [a]
O and M cost (@5%) [b]
Total cost [a +b]
Total additional BRTS cost (vs. trend) [I]
Road costs
Length in 2001 (km)
Average width in 2001 (m)
Road area in 2001 (m2)
Capacity increase factor
Road capacity enhancement per annum
(values in brackets are for 20012021)
New road area required 20012021 (m2)
Capital cost of new roads (@Rs 781.75/m2)b [c]
O and M cost (@5%) [d]
Total cost [c + d]
Total additional road costs (vs. trend) [II]
Total additional transport costs (vs. trend) [I + II]
a
b
TR21
CC21
9,901.49
7,758.08
1.00
7,758.08
387.90
8,145.98
1.86a
14,446.47
722.32
15,168.80
7,022.81
3,111
25.00
77,770,000
1.00
0.26% (5.36%)
4,171,819
3,261.32
163.07
3,424.38
3,424.38
0.00
0.00% (0.00%)
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
3,598.43
3,598.43
DS21
1.00
7,758.08
387.90
8,145.98
0.00
2.00
0.52% (11.00%)
8,555,672
6,688.39
334.42
7,022.81
3,598.43
Estimated to achieve the same difference in total costs vs. trend as dispersal.
Rs 1110/m2 in 2008 prices discounted to 2001 prices @5%.
edged that there would be subtle variations in the

manner of provision of these facilities, but these are
insignificant insofar as being able to create substantial
cost differences. Therefore, civic infrastructure costs,
both hard and soft, are assumed to be the same across
alternative policies. However, transport infrastructure is
the single most important element that is different
across alternatives. This includes the public transport
system and road capacity (new and augmentation).
During this authors visit to Ahmedabad for data
collection and obtaining feedback on the proposed
approach, meetings were held with city engineers and
planners to obtain block cost estimates. Based on this
information and discussions with them, transport costs
estimates have been prepared, which are presented in
Table 24. The total BRTS cost from the report (CEPT,
2006) has been adopted and converted to 2001 prices (at
5% discount rate).
With regard to the differences of transport costs
amongst alternative policies, it was assumed that in
compaction policy, most of the BRTS routes would be
totally grade-separated with better frequency. From the
discussions held with the city officials of Ahmedabad in
August 2008, it was learnt that such upgrading of the
BRTS could roughly translate to about 1.52.0 times the
cost of a basic BRTS (which is part of both trend and
dispersal policies). For this exercise, the cost increase
factor is estimated, such that the total transport
investment cost increase, over trend policy, is the same

for both compaction and dispersal policies (which
turned out to be 1.86, i.e., within the acceptable range).
Since the non-BRTS public transport routes run on
normal roads in mixed traffic, the overall cost of these
are the same across all 2021 alternative policies. It is
acknowledged that there would be variations in the
overall fleet size for buses, routing, frequencies and
administrative setup, depending on the location of the
zone amongst alternative policies. However, it is
presumed that these variations will be subtle enough
not to significantly affect the overall costs estimates.
In terms of road capacity enhancement, the AMC
trend data (AMC, 2007) for three decades was analysed
and the per annum growth in road capacity was
calculated. This was then projected for the decades
20012011 and 20112021. The growth rate per annum
in the 20-year period from 2001 to 2021 turns out to be
0.26%. For dispersal policy, this is assumed to be double
that of trend, and for compaction policy, no new road
network growth is assumed. It should be noted (as
explained before) that only those costs that are different
across alternative policies are estimated.
9.1.5. Summary of benefits and costs
The summary of benefits and costs of compaction
and dispersal policies compared to trend policy are
presented in Table 25. Benefits (from Table 21) are
174
Table 25
Annual estimates of benefits and costs vs. trend (million Rs, 2001 prices).
Item
Annual benefits
Change in housing rent consumer surplus
Change in housing rent producer surplus
Change in transport consumer surplus
Total
Annual costs
BTRS additional cost (values in brackets are total costs)
New roads and capacity augmentation additional cost
(values in brackets are total costs)
Total
Net benefit (benefitscosts)
a
b
Compaction
2021
Dispersal
2021
352.55 (29.38a 12)

150.81 (12.57 12)
1,037.53 (1.80 48b 12)
835.79
395.24 (32.96 12)

95.75 (7.98 12)
3,638.87 (6.32 48b 12)
3,938.66
563.53 (7,022.81)
274.78 (3,424.38)
0.00 (0.00)
288.75 (3,598.43)
288.75
288.65
547.04
3,649.91
Monthly values are rounded so it will not give exact annual values.
Two work trips per day 24 working days in a month = 48 trips in a month.
converted to annual values. Costs are converted to equal

annual instalments, such that the sum of the present
value of all 20 instalments (i.e., 20012021) equals the
total cost in 2001 prices. In P
other words, this is done by
finding x in C, where C n x=1 rn , is the cost
difference in 2001 prices (including operation and
maintenance), r is the discount rate and n is the number
of years (20 in this case). For example, the annual cost
difference of Rs 563.53 million for BTRS costs in
compaction policy in 2001 prices (in Table 25), add up
to Rs, 7022.81 million after discounting at 5% for each
year to 2021 (in Table 24).
The idea is to see how the alternative planning
policies fare against trend policy, which allows decision
makers to see its pros and cons in a more objective
manner. It should be noted that, since detailed
estimation of all the costs is not carried out, it was
not possible to calculate the net present value of costs
and hence the internal rate of return. Nonetheless, it is
believed that in the absence of a detailed and
sophisticated financial analysis, the estimates presented
in Table 25 would provide a reasonable comparison. It
can be seen from Table 25 that both the alternative
policies turn out to be better compared to trend in
economic terms. However, compared to trend policy,
dispersal policy has a substantially huger net benefit
than compaction policy.
There are other benefits to the government, such as
property tax. However, since the total supply of
residential floorspace in the model is the same across
all policies, the totals would be same. In the case of a tax
structure based on SEGs, this would produce different
revenues, as consumption of floorspace is slightly
different across alternative policies (see Table 8).

However, this can easily be calculated from the
modelled outputs should Ahmedabad civic authorities
decide to adopt such a structure in the future, as against
their current practice of a flat property tax structure
based on floor area.
The other item that could be considered in economic
assessment is the fuel tax revenue. However, this has not
been considered, as currently fuel tax is collected by the
state government and the magnitude of ploughing some
or all of it back into the municipal authorities treasury
is not known.
9.2. Environmental assessment
9.2.1. Resources: new land required for residential
use
The most important resource in urban development
is land. Based on the FSI and density estimates, the total
land required for new dwellings from 2001 to 2021 is
estimated and then converted to annual values, as
presented in Table 26. As expected, compaction
requires the lowest amount of land for new dwellings
and dispersal the highest.
Although not presented here, the estimates shown in
Table 26 are available at a zone level and hence the
authorities can use them in preparing detailed zoning
and development control regulations. This would be
useful in introducing caveats into the development plan,
where the estimated amount for residential use is
expected to be met with difficulty, thereby enabling the
authorities to alter the zoning and development control
regulations at a more local level than is currently being
175
Table 26
Estimate of land required for new dwellings (annual estimates in ha).
Sub-region
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
Inner zones
Outer zones
Total
195
188
384
245
39
285
31
388
419
26
% difference with trend 2021
done. If necessary, alterations to development control

regulations could be fine-tuned iteratively before
finalising the development plan.
With regard to use of building materials, it is
acknowledged that there would be subtle changes across
the alternative policies, depending on building typology
(i.e. high-rise vs. low-rise). However, since the total
supply of dwelling floorspace is the same across all
alternative policies, the changes are assumed to be
insignificant. Lastly, energy use in buildings (i.e.,
heating, ventilation and air conditioning, elevators, etc.)
could vary, depending on building typology. However,
since plot-level base year information is not available, it
was not possible to assess this aspect across the
alternative policies.
9.2.2. Emissions: vehicular CO2
In addition to CO2, there are several other types of
emissions, such as carbon monoxide, volatile organic
compounds, nitrogen oxides, nitrous oxide, hydrocar-
bons, particulate matter, and methane. However, all of

these except CO2 can be controlled through catalytic
converters and other add-on technologies. At present,
there is no technological means to reduce CO2
emissions, other than through the use of alternative
fuels, such as electricity and hydrogen (Banister, 2005).
Therefore, only CO2 emissions have been considered in
this study.
The CO2 emissions for base year and each of the
policies are estimated, based on the passenger-kilometre outputs from the model, by converting them to
vehicle-kilometres, using average vehicle occupancy. It
is expected that by 2021 all buses will be running on
compressed natural gas fuel and therefore only private
automobiles are considered. It should be noted that, due
to lack of availability of data on para-transit modes used
for work trips (known locally as chakda, see Fig. 46),
which currently run on diesel, these are not included in
the model and hence their emissions cannot be
estimated. However, in the future it is quite likely that
Table 27
Estimate of CO2 emissions for private automobiles (annual estimates, except mentioned otherwise).
Item
Passenger-km
Units
10
Base 2001
TR21
CC21
DS21
2104.61
2117.47
1714.82
2803.96
1940.09
1670.05
270.04
1922.96
1529.54
393.42
1557.30
1238.69
318.61
2546.39
2025.42
520.97
133,604
43,206
176,810
124.23
122,363
62,948
185,311
100.37
Vehicle-km
Of which, two-wheeler (2W)
Of which, car
10
106
106
2W CO2
Car CO2
Total CO2
Daily CO2 per capita
Difference with trend 2021
ton
ton
ton
g
ton (%)
99,095
50,978
150,073
81.28
35,238 (19%)
162,034
83,356
245,389
132.91
60,078 (32%)
Notes and assumptions

Annual passenger-km is obtained by converting values from Table 14 by multiplying them by 576 (i.e., 24 working days/month 2 work trips/
day 12 months).
Average vehicle occupancy of two-wheeler (2W): 1.05.
Average vehicle occupancy of car: 1.30.
Share of 2W and car (2001): 86% and 14%, respectively.
Share of 2W and car (2021): 80% and 20%, respectively [projected based on 19612006 trends (AMC, 2007)].
Weighted average vehicle occupancy: 1.08 (2001) and 1.10 (2021).
CO2 emission rates: 80 g/km (2W) and 160 g/km (car). Adapted from two recent studies of cities in the Indian context: Bhajracharya (2008) and
Hickman, Saxena, and Banister (2008). The latter study has value in the range of 120240 for most popular cars in India. Values for 2021 are
reduced by 10% to account for improvement in vehicle technology in the 20-year period.
176
these, like auto-rickshaws (a three-wheeler, predominantly para-transit mode), would be compulsorily

converted to compressed natural gas-fuelled engines.
The CO2 emissions for private vehicles are presented in
Table 27 and the associated assumptions are shown
below the table.
It can be seen from Table 27 that, as expected, CO2
emissions are highest in dispersal policy, due to a higher
vehicle-kilometre figure. In terms of percentage change
with regard to trend, it is about 32% higher, while for
compaction policy it is about 19% lower. However, it
should be noted that, as mentioned earlier, network
congestion is not modelled, which makes these
estimates indicative. For example, in compaction
policy, in certain already well-developed inner zones,
it is quite likely that the traffic in peak times could be
startstop, resulting in more CO2 emissions. On the
other hand, a compensating effect in dispersal policy
could take place, wherein higher travel occurs, but at
higher speeds, thereby reducing CO2 emissions. It is
acknowledged that these two factors could change

the estimates slightly and thus this is a limitation of
the study. However, this could be overcome by
collecting data for Indian roads and establishing a
relationship between average vehicular speeds and CO2
emissions.
9.3. Social aspects
Assessing the social aspects of alternative policies
quantitatively has always remained a challenge in the
realm of public policy. The key reason for this is the lack
of agreement amongst experts on what factors
constitute social wellbeing and how to measure them.
In this study, the following aspects have been
considered, based on the outputs available, which can
be quantified per zone and, if appropriate, aggregated
for the modelled area: (1) mix of socioeconomic groups
in a zone and sub-regions and its total effect; (2) social
equity in distribution of change in housing rent
Table 28
Distribution of each SEG by sub-region.
SEG1 (%)
SEG2 (%)
SEG3 (%)
SEG4 (%)
Base 2001
Walled city (zone 1)
Inner West (zones 24)
Inner East (zones 511)
Outer East (zones 1216)
Outer West (zones 1720)
Gandhinagar city (zone 21)
3
27
25
2
25
18
7
20
40
4
15
14
8
13
51
5
15
8
8
10
62
6
12
3
Trend 2021
2
25
26
3
32
13
5
20
40
4
17
14
9
13
51
6
14
7
6
13
60
5
13
3
Compaction 2021
4
30
27
3
26
10
7
23
42
3
15
11
9
14
54
4
13
6
4
14
64
4
11
3
Dispersal 2021
0
9
10
2
60
19
5
19
34
6
21
15
10
11
47
7
18
7
5
8
51
10
24
3
Notes: (1) Columns total 100%. (2) Grey cells in trend denote values higher than base 2001, while in compaction and dispersal they indicate values
higher than trend policy. (3) Based on trend projections, the overall proportions in 2021 of SEG1 and SEG2 have increased and those of SEG3 and
SEG4 have decreased.
177
Table 29
Proportion of SEGs in each sub-region.
Sub-region
SEG2 (%)
SEG3 (%)
SEG4 (%)
4
2
6
0
21
20
25
20
47
53
53
61
28
25
16
19

Base 2001
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
15
16
17
8
30
32
32
39
36
32
30
36
19
21
21
17

Base 2001
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
4
5
5
2
18
21
21
21
43
41
41
44
35
33
33
32

Base 2001
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
4
7
8
3
18
21
20
20
42
44
41
39
36
29
31
38

Base 2001
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
14
20
19
25
23
26
26
22
41
33
36
28
22
21
20
25

Base 2001
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
17
16
15
21
36
42
41
42
38
34
35
29
10
8
9
8

Base 2001
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
SEG1 (%)
Notes: (1) Rows total 100%. (2) Based on trend projections, the overall proportions in 2021 of SEG1 and SEG2 have increased and those of SEG3
and SEG4 have decreased.
consumer surplus; and (3) job and workforce accessibility.

9.3.1. Mix of socioeconomic groups
SIMPLAN outputs households by SEG for each
zone. For better comprehension, these were amalgamated into six sub-regions of the study area. Table 28
shows the proportion of each SEG by the six subregions, while Table 29 shows the proportion of SEG in
each of the six sub-regions (also mapped in Fig. 40).
A key observations from Table 28 is that, in general,
compared to trend policy, in compaction, the proportion
of households is increasing in the inner zones (zones 1
11), with a gradual decrease in magnitude from SEG1 to
SEG4, with a corresponding decrease in the outer zones
(zones 1221), albeit not that steep. This pattern is
nearly reversed in dispersal policy. However, most
notably the magnitude of increase in SEG1 in Outer

West is staggering. Overall, it would appear that SEG1
are the most mobile in response to changes in spatial
policy.
The other significant observation (see Table 29) is that,
as compared to trend policy, in all sub-regions, except
Outer West and Gandhinagar city, SEG1 in dispersal
policy has declined, with the strongest decline in Inner
West, with a reversed pattern in compaction policy.
Although the mix of SEGs by zone (or sub-region)
can be examined, an attempt has been made to obtain an
overall picture across alternative policies. To do so, it is
proposed to use Gini coefficients (Gini, 1912).
Proportions of SEG1SEG4 households for each zone
are compared to the total proportions of SEGs for the
study area (which remain the same for all alternative
policies). This is achieved by calculating the Gini
178
Fig. 40. Proportion of SEGs in each sub-region.
179
Table 30
Gini coefficients of mix of socioeconomic groups.
Zone
Zone name
TR21
CC21
DS21
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Walled city
Vasna-Paldi
Navrangpura-Gandhigram
Naranpura-Vadaj-Sabarmati
Dudheshwar-Madhupura-Girdharnagar
Saraspur-Asarwa
Naroda-Sardarnagar
Bapunagar-Rakhial-KokhraMehmdabad
Nikol-Odhav
Maninagar-Kankaria
Vatva-Badodara
Cantonment
Bhat-Chiloda-Nabhoi
Kathwada-Muthiya
Singarva-Vastral-Ramol
Aslali-Lambha-Piplaj
Sharkej-Gyaspur-Okaf
Thaltej-Vastrapur-Vejalpur-Makarba-Ambli-Shilaj
Sola-Gota-Chandlodia-Ghatlodia-Ranip
Adalaj-Chandkheda-Kali-Motera-Zundal-Khoraj
Gandhinagar City
0.11
0.23
0.06
0.11
0.15
0.08
0.04
0.19
0.11
0.31
0.09
0.06
0.13
0.07
0.07
0.10
0.33
0.18
0.25
0.06
0.28
0.02
0.25
0.16
0.09
0.12
0.09
0.01
0.18
0.13
0.39
0.12
0.21
0.28
0.03
0.07
0.09
0.30
0.17
0.27
0.07
0.25
0.09
0.14
0.34
0.03
0.20
0.10
0.09
0.18
0.13
0.22
0.08
0.02
0.08
0.21
0.12
0.33
0.68
0.20
0.34
0.04
0.33
Sum of Gini coefficients
3.02
3.30
3.95
Variations by inner and outer zones

Inner zones total (weighted)
Outer zones total (weighted)
1.48
1.54
1.57
1.73
1.60
2.34
Note: [1] Value as nearer to zero indicate SEG mix in a zone is closer to SEG mix of the study area.
coefficients for each of the zones using Eq. (20), as the

first step.
X
m1
Gi 1
xm xm1 ym
(20)
i yi
m
where Gi is the Gini coefficient for zone i; x is the
cumulative proportion of SEG type m in the study area;
ym
i is the cumulative proportion of SEG type m in zone i.
In Eq. (20), the absolute value is taken into account,
as by definition the Gini coefficient ranges from zero
to one, with zero denoting total equality of distribution
(i.e., in this case the SEG mix in a zone is identical to
the study area) and one denoting total inequality of
distribution (i.e., in this case the SEG mix in a zone is
in stark contrast to the study area). Table 30 shows the
value for each of the alternative policies by zone. In
this case, the problem with Gini coefficients is that
these are given for each of the zones. Although each
zone can be compared across alternatives, this does
not give an overall effect of the distribution of
households by SEG, as can be seen for the shaded cells
in Table 30. Therefore, as the second step, to obtain an
overall picture, it proposed to sum the Gini coefficients for the study area (and also by inner and outer
zones). Since, by definition, the values range from zero

to one, the lowest total value would imply a
socioeconomic mix closest to that of the study area.
In this sense, trend policy is the first, followed by
compaction and dispersal policies. This could imply
that altering the urban form to a preconceived
structure (e.g., compact or dispersed) leads to a suboptimal SEG mix as compared to trend, with dispersal
policy being the least favourable, created by a
significantly lopsided SEG mix in the outer zones
as compared to trend. However, for the inner zones,
the alternative policies do not deviate much more than
the trend (which could be attributed to fact that inner
zones are already well developed compared to outer
zones, creating an inertia effect).
9.3.2. Social equity
The distribution of economic benefits spatially and
across SEGs can be viewed as an aspect of social equity.
In this case, only the consumer surplus in housing rent is
used, as it is output from the model by zone and by SEG.
It should be noted that transport consumer surplus is an
aggregated value across SEGs and hence its distribution
is not output from the model.
180
Table 31
Distribution of change in consumer surplus in housing rent (million Rs/month, 2001 prices, vs. trend 2021).
SEG
% of households a
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
SEG1
SEG2
SEG3
SEG3
10.2
25.3
38.5
26.0
38.01
16.30
12.12
12.81
50.24
9.88
15.16
12.00
ALL
100.0
29.38
32.96
Total households = 1,333,558.
The overall distribution of benefits of change in

consumer surplus is shown in Table 31 (repeated from
Table 21), which shows a very interesting pattern. The
higher income households (SEG1 and SEG2) benefit in
dispersal policy but are worse off in compaction policy,
with a reversed pattern with regard to low-income
households (SEG3 and SEG4). In theory, some form of
ideal distribution across SEGs could be assumed and
both compaction and dispersal policies could be
compared to it. However, each society would view
the importance (weight) of benefit or loss accruing to a
particular SEG differently, and hence boiling down this
distribution to a single number across alternatives

would not be appropriate. Decision makers could
further comprehend this aspect by looking at the spatial
distribution of change in consumer supply in housing
rent by SEG and by zone, as shown in Fig. 41.
Access to private gardens could also be included as a
social indicator in assessment. However, unlike most
developed countries, the housing typology in Ahmedabad, which is predominantly flats and row houses
(and presumably in other developing countries as well)
does not allow for private gardens. Even high-income
households live in flats, with proportionately very few
Fig. 41. Distribution of economic benefits in housing rent.
living in bungalows. In addition, the data required to

establish a baseline status of people having access to
private gardens are not available. Therefore, on these
accounts, this aspect cannot be included in the
assessment.
9.3.3. Accessibility
Hansen (1959) in his seminal paper, How accessibility shapes land use, provides a very useful
definition of accessibility as the potential of opportunities of interaction (for more details, the reader is
referred to Geurs & van Wee, 2004, who provide a
useful summary of the various accessibility definitions
that have been propounded over the years, and Ingram,
1971, and Harris, 2001, for discussions on conceptual
and operational aspects of accessibility). However, it is
important to specify accessibility to what and by whom.
With regard to urban areas, it is useful to denote
accessibility for people at location A to opportunities at
location B. In terms of measurement, accessibility has
been conceptualised as being a function of the number
of opportunities and the distance separating them.
However, it is better to use a generalised cost measure,
rather than distance, as doing so enables accessibility to
be measured over time and/or across alternative spatial
configurations of location of people and opportunities.
An accessibility measure can be seen as an indicator
of the impact of land use and transport developments
and policy plans on the functioning of society in
general. In other words, it provides a measure of the
potential access to opportunities experienced by
individuals or groups of individuals (Geurs & van
Wee, 2004). Therefore, in assessing alternative policies,
it is useful to know the measure of accessibility offered
by each policy.
There are many approaches to measuring accessibility. Harris (2001) reviews these approaches and
opines that a more flexible method would be to use a
continuous declining function of separation between A
and B; the same method has been adopted in this study.
The second aspect to measuring accessibility is
deciding the As and Bs. With regard to comparing
alternative planning policies, workforce and employment are the two key elements. In this study, both these
have been considered, i.e., accessibility to jobs by
workforce and accessibility to workforce by employers.
Geurs and van Eck (2001) term these as supplied and
demanded activities, respectively. DfT (2003, 2004)
also propose these two types of accessibility in
assessing the wider economic benefits of transport
schemes. The first measure is residence-based (denoted
as zone i in this study), and the second is employment-
181
based (denoted as zone j). Both these accessibility

measures enable decision makers to see how alternative
dispositions of employment and dwellings and transport
policies affect accessibility. A popular general structure
for accessibility measure is:
X
Ai
W j f ci j
(21)
j
where Ai is accessibility of zone i with respect to the
opportunity W under question; f(cij) is a function of the
generalised cost of travel from i to j (which could be
expressed either in monetary terms per trip or time per
trip). Note: Depending on whether the accessibility is
resident-zone based or employment-zone based, the
sub-scripts would change accordingly.
9.3.3.1. Workforces accessibility to jobs. This measure denotes how accessible employment is for the
workforce resident in zone i and can be measured by
suitably modifying Eq. (21) as follows:
X
JAi
E expbci j
(22)
j j
where JAi is the accessibility to jobs for workforce in
zone i; Ej is employment in zone j; cij is a generalised
cost per trip (Rs/trip); b is the aggregate distance decay
parameter estimated in the multinomial modal split
model.
It should be noted that part of accessibility, as
expressed by Eq. (22), is indirectly already built into the
SIMPLAN allocation equation (see Eq. (1)) and
therefore is reflected in the location of households
and ultimately in the consumer surplus in housing rent.
However, the purpose here is to create a graphical
representation of accessibility to gain a better understanding of its magnitude and spatial distribution by
zones at a more aggregate level.
9.3.3.2. Employers accessibility to workforce. This
measure denotes how accessible the workforce is for
employers located in zone j and can be measured by
suitably modifying Eq. (21) as follows:
X
WA j
R expbci j
(23)
i i
where WAj is the accessibility to workforce for employers in zone j; Ri is resident workers in zone i; other
parameters are the same as Eq. (22).
Kwok and Yeh (2004) suggest that overall accessibility could be determined by weighting zonal
accessibility by share of population (i.e., resident
workers or employment). Mathematically, the overall
accessibility measure for the study area (given by
182
Eq. (24)), for both workers and employers, is identical.

X
Ri
P
JAi
JA
or WA
i
i Ri
!
X
Ej
(24)
WA j P
j
jE j
The overall accessibility calculated using Eq. (24),
represented as index values (with trend as 100), is
presented in Table 32. It can be seen that, overall,
compaction policy offers higher accessibility, and
expectedly, it is higher in inner zones and lower in
outer zones, with vice versa for dispersal policy.
Fig. 42 gives accessibility calculated by Eqs. (22)
and (23), for each of the zones, converted to index
values. It can be seen that, as compared to trend,
Table 32
Accessibility indexes (index numbers).
Sub-region
Trend 2021
Compaction 2021
Dispersal 2021
Inner zones
Outer zones
Overall
100
100
100
121
97
117
95
155
104
compaction policy offers higher job accessibility than

dispersal policy in about 64% of inner zones and about
half of outer zones. In terms of workforce accessibility,
as expected, dispersal policy is much higher in outer
zones and compaction is much higher in inner zones.
Accessibility for each of the zones by mode has also
been calculated, as it shows the effects of changes in the
generalised cost of travel across alternative policies (see
Fig. 42. Accessibility indexes by zone.
183
Fig. 43. Accessibility indexes by zone and by mode.
transport for the population and in this regard, it could

be seen as a social objective.
Owing to a much higher quality of public transport
infrastructure in the inner zones, the overall PTQS is
appreciably higher in compaction. In dispersal policy,
this is lower than trend, but this is only a marginal
difference.
Fig. 43). It can be seen that, in general, both job and

workforce accessibility by private automobile in
compaction policy is much lower, and vice versa for
dispersal. Conversely, for public transport, compaction
policy offers much higher job and workforce accessibility, and vice versa for dispersal.
Lastly, based on the public transport quality in each
zone, a public transport quality score (PTQS) was
assigned (used in Eqs. (9) and (10)), ranging from one to
six, with one denoting very poor and six, excellent. A
weighted average score for the study area, calculated
using the share of population as the weight, is presented
in Table 33. This score in a sense denotes an aggregate
effect of the potential of distribution of access to public
9.4. Sensitivity analysis: assessment summary of

other alternatives
As mentioned in Section 8.0, several other variations
of the alternative policies were tested as part of the
sensitivity analysis. Land use and transport outputs have
Table 33
Public transport quality score.
Item
Base 2001
TR21
CC21
DS21
Average PTQS
Percentage change (TR vs. BS and Alts vs. TR) (%)
2.70
3.72
38
4.79
29
3.57
4
184
Table 34
Assessment indicators from sensitivity analysis (part 1). Dwellings and employment variations.
Items
TR21 ED63-37
CC21 variations (with same employment,

DS21 variations (with same employment,

but different dwellings))
CC21 Diff emp.

and dwellings
DS21 Diff emp.

and dwellings
CC D80-20
d
DS D20-80
g
DS D10-90
h
DS D0-100
i
CC ED92-08
j
DS ED22-78
k
CC D90-10
e
CC D100-0
f
1.220
0.093
1.335
0.208
0.353
0.151
1.038
0.836
0.769
0.196
0.863
0.290
0.526
0.058
3.259
3.728
0.396
0.096
3.639
3.939
0.125
0.137
3.997
3.986
0.320
0.023
1.053
1.396
0.587
0.047
2.576
3.210
Costs (vs. trend) [billion Rs/year]

Public transport
New roads and capacity augmentation
Costs total (B)
Net benefits (AB)
0.564
0.275
0.289
0.081
0.564
0.275
0.289
0.547
0.564
0.275
0.289
0.002
0.000
0.289
0.289
3.439
0.000
0.289
0.289
3.650
0.000
0.289
0.289
3.697
0.564
0.275
0.289
1.108
0.564
0.289
0.852
2.358
Resources and environment

Residential land for new development
(ha/year)
% Change (vs. trend)
Annual CO2 emission (thousand tons)
% Change (vs. trend)
384
300
285
275
425
419
415
284
418
185
22
154
17
26
150
19
28
148
20
11
237
28
9
245
32
8
254
37
26
154
17
9
197
6
Social indicators
Social
P equity
squared deviations
53
78
122
47
100
196
35
SEG mix: sum of Gini coefficients

Inner zones
Outer zones
Overall
Accessibility indexes
Inner zones
Outer zones
Overall
Public transport quality score
1.48
1.54
3.02
1.53
1.57
3.10
1.57
1.73
3.30
1.63
1.92
3.56
1.58
2.28
3.86
1.60
2.34
3.95
1.61
2.39
4.00
1.72
1.53
3.24
1.36
1.96
3.32
100.0
100.0
100.0
3.72
118.2
102.5
115.9
4.77
120.6
97.4
117.3
4.79
121.9
91.6
117.5
4.80
97.7
147.2
104.9
3.59
95.2
155.1
103.9
3.57
92.3
163.1
102.5
3.54
135.2
69.4
125.6
4.82
81.7
204.6
99.5
3.57
Note: Results for CC D90-10 and DS D10-90 are given for comparison.
Economic indicators
Benefits (vs. trend) [billion Rs/year]
DCS in housing rent
DPS in housing rent
DCS in transport
Benefits total (A)
Table 35
Assessment indicators from sensitivity analysis (part 2). Income variation.
Items
Real income increase scenario

TR21
CC21
DS21
No real income increase scenario
% Change
TR21
No real income increase vs. real

income increase
CC21
DS21
CC21
DS21
Economic indicator: benefits [billion Rs/month]

DCS in housing rent (vs. trend)
DPS in housing rent (vs. trend)
DCS in transport (vs. trend)
Benefits total
0.353
0.151
1.038
0.836
Environmental indicators
Residential land for new development (ha/year)
Annual Co2 emission (thousand tons)
185
150
Social indicators
Social equity
P
squared deviations
0.396
0.096
3.639
3.939
0.365
0.128
1.023
0.786
0.474
0.088
3.617
4.002
3%
15%
1%
6%
20%
8%
1%
2%
2%
3%
No change as supply is same across alternative policies for both scenarios

245
190
153
252
3%
78
100
59
73
24%
27%
SEG mix: sum of Gini coefficients

Inner zones
Outer zones
Overall
1.48
1.54
3.02
1.57
1.73
3.30
1.60
2.34
3.95
1.53
1.71
3.24
1.60
1.84
3.44
1.63
2.39
4.02
2.9%
11.2%
7.2%
2.1%
6.3%
4.3%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
Accessibility indexes
Inner zones
Outer zones
Overall
100.0
100.0
100.0
120.6
97.4
117.3
95.2
155.1
103.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
121.2
96.9
117.6
94.8
155.6
103.8
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
3.72
4.79
3.57
3.71
4.78
3.56
0.1%
0.2%
Public transport quality score

a
TR21
a
Costs remain the same in both income scenarios.
185
186
already been presented in Tables 18 and 19. In this

section, a summary of the assessment of key aspects is
presented (see Tables 34 and 35).
It can be seen from Table 34, that in terms of
economic benefits, the extreme version of dispersal
(DS D0-100) is the best, while compaction (CC ED9208) works best if employment is also concentrated in
inner zones. In other words, if dispersal policy is to be
pursued, then releasing more land (leading to a higher
supply of residential floorspace) in the outer areas
proves best economically, and if compaction policy is
pursued, then compacting both residential development
and jobs proves most beneficial. The new residential
land required is least in the extreme version of
compaction (CC D100-0) and dispersal (DS D0-100), as
expected (as in both cases no new land is required in the
inner and outer zones, respectively). The emissions are
in line with the passenger-kilometres (see Table 18). In
terms of social indicators, the results are mixed. Both
the mildest versions of compaction (CC D80-20) and
dispersal policies (CC D20-80) are better in terms of
socioeconomic mix of households. Social equity in
distribution of change in housing rent consumer surplus,
for both compaction and dispersal policies, wherein
employment is also altered (i.e., CC ED92-08 and DS
ED22-78, respectively), appears to perform the best
overall. The overall accessibility and PTQS is best in the
extreme version of compaction policy (CC D100-0)
and mildest version of dispersal policy (DS D20-80).
However, as expected, altering employment inputs in
compaction policy (CC ED92-08) proves to be most
beneficial in terms of public transport aspects.
It can be seen from Table 35 that if income does not
increase in real terms, then the overall effect on the
benefits is not significant and the same is the case with
regard to environmental indicators. If incomes increase
in real terms for all households, then it seems to create a
better mix of SEGs. Lastly, if incomes do not increase in
real terms, the pattern of distribution of benefits is the
same for both compaction and dispersal policies, but the
overall benefits reduce in compaction policy and
increase in dispersal policy. The variations in sum of
Gini coefficients for SEG mix and accessibility indexes
are not significant. Overall, it would appear that changes
in income in real terms obviously affects magnitudes of
outputs, but the direction of the outputs does not alter
significantly.
9.5. A discussion on assessment matrix
It can be a daunting task for planners and decision
makers to choose the best or optimum outcome for
the society from a set of alternatives, as this could

become a very subjective process. This problem grows
in importance if the actions under consideration
ultimately determine the welfare and wellbeing of a
region, as is often the case in development planning.
Often matters could be compounded when there are
mutually conflicting sets of criteria or objectives within
the alternatives (Nijkamp & Voogd, 1983). They
consider multicriteria analysis (known popularly as
MCA in recent literature) as an important assessment
tool in this process. Further to this, they distinguish two
MCA approaches: discrete and continuous. Discrete
MCA implies that there is a finite number of explicitly
formulated alternatives that are being considered.
Continuous MCA means that the alternatives themselves are not explicit, but only their dimensions are
known, and then from a feasible area, the optimum
solution is sought. They briefly explain about nine
discrete MCA methods and it is clear from the
discussion that each of these methods has its own
merits and demerits. The choice of method essentially
depends on the context and type of modelling outputs
available for assessment.
In practice, usually a local expert group is convened
and the various indicators and the weights to be attached
to each indicator are finalised. Such an approach could
take several months to finalise. Considering the time
limitation in the study, it was not possible to arrange for
a local expert group. Therefore, it has not been possible
to prepare a detailed assessment matrix comparing the
alternative planning policies. However, since the
alternatives are precisely known, the discrete MCA
approach could be adopted for this study, bearing in
mind that assigning relative importance to the various
aspects of assessment indicators (i.e., its weights) is a
highly political process.
On the other hand, planners could employ an
approach wherein key outcomes of alternative policies
are presented to decision makers under broad headings,
such as economic, environment, and social (similar to
those shown in Section 9.1). As van Wee (2002) puts it,
policy makers can explicitly ask for evaluation criteria
and indicators that they consider relevant (and have the
same assessed). Healey (2007) argues that plan making
and agreed strategies of one period have been pushed to
the sidelines or deliberately overridden by shifts in
political priorities or by the force of particular interests.
This author thinks that it is important for planners to
make the technical outputs of the assessment process
available to policy- and decision makers (who are
usually politically appointed, but have a reasonable
technical background). Based on such outputs, the latter
group could then make more informed judgements,

translating into policy decisions issued to the local
authorities.
9.6. Conclusions on assessment
The outputs of SIMPLAN were assessed under three
key headings: economic, environmental and social. It
was shown that dispersal policy is much better from an
economic perspective. The general economic argument
is that releasing more land for development in the outer
areas of an existing city (which consequently implies a
higher supply of dwellings) reduces average housing
rents. The downside of dispersing cities is that the
monetary cost of travel increases, owing to higher
average trip lengths. However, in general, the cost of
housing rents is a transfer of payments in the city system
from consumers to producers. A more important
economic effect is captured by looking at the consumer
surplus to the society, in which the dispersal policy
proves to be substantially better.
In terms of environmental resources, in this study,
the only variable output from the model is land required
for new residential development. It was seen that,
compared to trend policy, compaction policy consumes
less land (26%) and dispersal policy consumes more
land (9%), both of which are as expected. Some
consider that using a smaller amount of new land for
development is an advantage in itself. This authors
view is that consuming more or less land is beside the
point, as essentially land use is being transferred from
one economic use to another (e.g., say from agriculture
to urban residential, in this case). Obviously, agricultural land is lost in the process, but dispersing cities
implies that agricultural land use is faced with higher
competition from urban land uses, implying that the
agriculture sector needs to become more efficient in
terms of yield per square unit of land (e.g., through
technological advancement in cultivation). Because of
the global influences on cities (such as rapidly
globalising food markets), a citys reliance solely on
its hinterland for food supply is decreasing. Of course,
exploring the complex economic relationships between
a city and its regions (and beyond) is beyond the scope
of the current research and hence conclusive remarks
cannot be made. What can be said, though, is that when
assessing alternative policies, the consumption of new
land for development should not be seen, a priori, as
having any negative effect on the wellbeing of society.
It was shown that the CO2 emissions from private
vehicles were highest in dispersal policy (i.e., 32% higher
than trend policy). This is an issue that needs to be tackled
187
at many levels, such as greener fuels, better vehicle

technology, and appropriate travel demand management
measures within each of the alternative policies. As
mentioned before, as a limitation of this study, better
representation of network congestion can have a
deteriorating effect in compaction policy and a compensating effect in dispersal policy, with regard to the total
CO2 emissions from private vehicles at the city level. It
should be noted that changes relating to fuel and vehicle
technology and associated costs are related to national
and global economic policies and standards, and therefore
are usually beyond the scope of local planners. At best,
they can anticipate such changes and build alternative
scenarios for the sensitivity testing of planning policies.
The socioeconomic mix of households turned out to
be most favourable in trend policy, followed by
compaction and dispersal. Social equity in distribution
of change in consumer surplus in housing rent appears
to be best for both compaction and dispersal policies,
when employment inputs are also altered (with respect
to trend). Considering overall accessibility as a social
indicator, compaction policy is the most favourable,
followed by dispersal. Lastly, potential of access to
public transport service is highest in compaction policy,
with dispersal policy only marginally lower than trend
policy. In general, it appears that it may be possible to
address some of the environmental and social shortcomings of dispersal policy by travel demand management measures and stricter zoning norms for location of
new employment, respectively.
As can be appreciated from the above discussion, it is
nearly impossible to pin down one alternative as the
most desirable. However, what this exercise demonstrates is that it is possible to evaluate the pros and cons of
each of the alternative policies, thereby allowing planners
and decision makers to gain more scientific knowledge
on their implications. The next step to follow from such
an academic exercise is that the local authorities
responsible for preparing the city plan devise a policy
that includes the best bits from all alternatives tested. For
example, the principles of compaction and dispersal
policies could be tried out in certain zones, producing a
combined policy. In essence, more insightful planning
policy alternatives specific to the local context could then
be tested and evaluated, before finalising the plan.
10. Feedback
10.1. Background
It was felt necessary to present the approach
developed in this study to obtain feedback from the
188
local government planners and decision makers

responsible for preparation of the DP. A local quasigovernment agency kindly agreed to coordinate the
presentations and meetings. In addition, the trip to
Ahmedabad in August 2008 was used as an opportunity
to interact with academics and professionals and to
discuss various aspects of the research. Eight presentations and meetings were held, as listed below.
Presentations and meetings with government planners and decision makers.
rigour and to take a scientific approach in making city

plans. They could start with a simplified urban
simulation model, and once they have adopted it, they
can then enhance and update the model, as more
disaggregated data become available, to make it a more
powerful tool to aid their decision-making capabilities,
over the years. A summary of the key concerns raised in
the above presentations and meetings, and this authors
responses to them, are presented in the next section.
1. Presentation to staff of Ahmedabad Municipal

Corporation, Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority, and Gandhinagar Urban Development Corporation, and other governmental organisations
involved in DP making (2 August, Ahmedabad).
2. Meeting with Dr J.G. Pandya, Manager, Bhaskaracharya Institute for Space Applications and GeoInformatics (BISAG), Gandhinagar and formerly
CEO of Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority
(26 August, Gandhinagar).
3. Meeting with Mr P.L. Sharma, Officer on Special
Duty, Urban Development and Urban Housing
Department, Government of Gujarat (26 August,
Gandhinagar).
4. Presentation to the special taskforce on urban
planning at the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation,
headed by the Municipal Commissioner (28 August,
Ahmedabad).
10.1.1. Summary of key feedback and responses

During the presentations and meetings, many
questions and concerns were raised by government
planners and decision makers, and practitioners. The
key concerns and this authors responses (in italics) are
discussed below.
Presentation with academics and professionals.

1. Presentation to practising planning professionals and
academics at HCP Desing and Project Management
(8 August, Ahmedabad).
2. Presentation to academics and practising planning
professionals at the Centre for Environmental
Planning and Technology University (11 August,
Ahmedabad).
3. Presentation to academics at the Sardar Vallabhbhai
National Institute of Technology, Surat (22 August,
Surat).
4. Presentation to academics at the Centre for Social
Studies, Surat, with representation from Surat
Municipal Corporation (22 August, Surat).
Overall, it was acknowledged by the decision makers
and government planners that such an analytical
approach should indeed form the basis of all planning
exercises, and therefore is highly welcomed. Practitioners were of the opinion that it is imperative for urban
local government authorities to impart more analytical
1. Currently housing schemes by private developers are

constructed and then provision of transport facilities
follows. This approach is not appropriate. There
should be an interactive process adopted while
making city plans.
Yes. This model takes into account transport costs
as part of the location cost. Therefore, alternative
transport policies could be tested (with accompanying urban form policy) to arrive at an appropriate
combination.
2. We may want to allow compact development in
certain areas and dispersed development in other
areas.
Yes. It is possible to test alternatives wherein some
zones in the model are treated for compact
development and other zones for dispersed development. In fact, the purpose of such a model is precisely
to test such combinations as felt appropriate by local
government planners to see their implications before
finalising the DP.
3. We have to identify the civic needs of the population
in various parts of the city and then decide the land
requirements for such facilities.
What facilities are needed is an aspect that has to
be ascertained by the urban local body in charge of
preparing the city plan (and hence is external to the
model). However, since the model outputs population
at a zone level, once the civic facilities needed are
identified, based on population estimates, land can
be easily earmarked zone-wise in the plan for such
facilities. Currently, this is not possible as the AMC
area is treated as one zone in the DP.
4. We should be able to update the model, as new data is
available.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Yes. This model is spreadsheet-based and hence all

aspects of it are easily changeable because of the
visually driven user-friendly interface. Various inputs
worksheets can be easily updated as and when new
data and information are available. Local authority
planners, with basic computer literacy, can be quickly
trained to operate and update the model with ease.
Can issues like flood- or earthquake-proneness be
taken into account in the model, as these are likely to
change for different parts of the city?
Yes. Such aspects make a zone less attractive for
residential location, which, in theory, is captured in
the housing attractiveness factors for each zone
calibrated for the base year 2001. However, for
example, it is likely that effects on residential
location due to the 26 January 2001 earthquake
were not fully captured in the 2001 Census. In
addition, if there is information available based on
sample survey, the model could be re-calibrated
between census years (which are every 10 years).
Is the carrying capacity (of each zone) taken into
account for future years?
Yes. The model allocates dwelling floorspace
based on an allocation equation that includes the
spare capacity of each zone. This is estimated based
on the FSI in each zone and the land potentially
available for residential use.
The base year rent patterns produced by the model
seem to be very realistic (see Fig. 28). However, is the
model capable of capturing property speculation in
housing rents in the future?
The phenomenon of property speculation
decreases the potential supply of dwellings, with a
resultant increase in prices. If there are more policy
constraints (e.g., in compaction policy there would be
constraints on the release of new land) then the
magnitude of speculation is likely to increase in
pursuit of more profits (because of higher price
increases). In this sense, speculation is a function of
the policy constraints.
Can the outputs of the model be transformed into a
land use map, as this is what the local planning
authorities ultimately make?
Yes. Since the population distribution for a future
urban policy is at a zonal level, all land-consuming
activities, such as residential, commercial, civic
amenities, etc., can be estimated and shown on a land
use map. In the current study, this step in not
demonstrated, as detailed plot level information is
not available. However, if a base year map at plot
level is created, exact locations of new land uses
required for the future can be easily marked on a
189
map. In addition, based on the policy adopted, zoning

of residential use into sub-categories (as per the
current practice of DP) can also be included.
9. Certain areas of the city are highly susceptible to
communal violence. There have been cases of mass
movement of people from one area to the other after
episodes of communal violence. How does the model
deal with such situations?
The population is segregated by income groups
and not religious groups (although there might be a
weak to moderate correlation between income and
religion). Therefore, housing location preferences,
purely based on religious aspects, are not modelled.
The housing attractiveness factors for each zone are
calibrated for year 2001, which reflects an aggregated behaviour. However, if there are enough
sample survey data available to track movements
of people over the years based on religious
preferences, then it should be possible to include
this in the model. Currently, no such information is
available for Ahmedabad.
10.2. SIMPLAN application to DP making
One of the key outputs of the Ahmedabad Development Plan is a land use zoning plan for the horizon
year. In the current method of preparing the DP,
population projections are carried out without any
reference to future employment location. At the level of
an urban area, this is not appropriate. Since all proposals
in the DP follow from the population projections, it
could be said that the proposals are based on an
unsound foundation.
As discussed in Section 9.2.1, estimates of new
residential land required can be made by zone. Based on
these, residential zoning regulations can be prepared
more accurately compared with the current method of
using blanket-type zoning. This gives the local
authorities more flexibility in zoning the land for
residential use. Similarly, new land required for
commercial use can be estimated, based on the
employment inputs for each zone.
For other areas in the zoning plan, SIMPLAN
outputs of resident workers, households and population
by each zone, can be used to estimate infrastructure
services at a more detailed level than is currently being
done. From the requirements estimated, the areas of
existing facilities (2001) are to be deducted to calculate
the infrastructure required for 20012021. This can be
easily turned to land areas based on the local norms and
can be shown on a spatially more disaggregated scale on
a map compared to the current practice.
190
With regard to transport infrastructure, since the

inputs are based on network distances, new road
alignments and capacity augmentations proposals can
be checked using SIMPLAN until satisfactory outputs
are achieved. This is completely different from the
current approach, wherein transport infrastructure is
simply imposed on the plan without reference to its
future implications.
It should be noted that in this study a detailed land
use plan for the horizon year of 2021 has not been
developed from the modelling outputs. The reason for
this is twofold: firstly, this is something that needs to be
done in close collaboration with the local authorities, or
alternatively by the authorities themselves, and secondly, being an academic exercise, taking this route
would be inappropriate considering the time limitation
of the study. However, as discussed above, given the
outputs from SIMPLAN a much more detailed land use
zoning plan than the current one can be prepared.
10.3. SIMPLAN simplifications and its application
limitations
The first simplification is spatial disaggregation, in
which zones larger than the census wards are used. This
will certainly make the outputs coarser than what the

available data could best provide. However, this
limitation does not appear to be an imminent issue,
given the scope and level of detail addressed in the
current DP-making practice. Of course, once such a
model is adopted, the local authority can always make it
more spatially disaggregated, in order to use the outputs
for a neighbourhood level of planning (the second tier
after the DP). A possible approach could be to use much
smaller zones (or grid-based cells, if plot level base year
map is available), but this would increase the
computational requirements. Because of the spreadsheet-based structure, a quick run using different spatial
levels of disaggregation could be tried out to ascertain
the magnitude of accuracy gained at the cost of adding
the computational complexity, based on which the local
authority can make a decision as to what level of spatial
disaggregation should be adopted.
The second simplification is modelling only residential location. The limitation of this is that only
journey-to-work trips are output and other trips, such as
education, shopping, social, etc.) are ignored. The
outputs cannot therefore be used to represent the entire
urban system. For example, the total CO2 emission is
not modelled and therefore is not useful for cross-cities,
Table 36
SIMPLAN simplifications limitations, and possible solutions.
S. No.
Simplification
Limitations and/or caveats for use of outputs
Possible solutions
Lower level of spatial disaggregation of

zones (than Census wards).
Modelling of only residential location

(employment location modelling not
carried out but is given as external
inputs to the model).
Given the simplicity of operation of the

model, it would be possible to quickly
try out different spatial scales to
weigh the accuracy gained at the cost of
computational complexity.
As and when more observed data to
calibrate the model are collected,
addition of non-work travel can be
carried out incrementally without
major structural changes to the model,
given its spreadsheet-based structure.
Modal split model being calibrated

based on all trips without SEG
disaggregation (due to lack of observed
data for work travel trips by SEG).
Network assignment of journey to work
trips is not carried out, on the grounds
that for an academic study it is
impractical, both in terms of funding
and time constraint, to build a network
model of Ahmedabad.
Employment inputs are only by SEG
without sub-categorisation by industry
sector (e.g., primary, secondary and
tertiary), due to lack of economic
census data.
More aggregation of employment,

dwellings, and planning inputs, hence
interpreting results with regard to
smaller areas with the model would be
coarser.
Only journey to work trips are output
(other trips such as education,
shopping, and social/recreation are not
modelled). Therefore, outputs cannot
be used to represent the entire system,
e.g., estimates of CO2 emissions are
with regard to only work trips.
Calculations of consumer surplus in
transport by mode are indicative.
Network congestion is not modelled

and hence cannot be fed back into the
residential location model. Estimates of
CO2 emissions cannot be made at a
local level.
Commercially available transport

models with network assignment
capability could be easily dovetailed
with SIMPLAN.
Economic vitality (usually measured

by the mix of jobs by sector) and its
social implications cannot be
estimated.
Employment inputs by sector and by

SEG (creating a two-way matrix) could
be easily introduced into the model
with minor structural changes, should
such data be made available.
It is fairly easy to recalibrate the

modal split model if such data
are available.
comparison. However, for comparing alternative policies for the same city, this limitation is not particularly
significant. As and when more observed data are
collected to calibrate the model, the addition of nonwork travel can be carried out incrementally without
major structural changes to the model, given its
spreadsheet-based structure.
The third simplification is lack of calibration of the
modal split model without SEG disaggregation.
However, this is simply an issue related to lack of
availability of observed data by SEG. This limitation
implies that the estimates of consumer surplus in
transport are indicative. However, it is fairly easy to
recalibrate the modal split model if such data is
available.
The fourth simplification is ignoring the assignment
of trips onto actual transport network. Again this
simplification is sought on the grounds that, for
academic study, it was thought impractical (both in
terms of funding and time constraints) to build a
transport network of Ahmedabad. This limitation
implies that network congestion cannot be modelled
and hence cannot be fed back into the residential
location model. In addition, localised estimates of CO2
emissions cannot be made. This limitation can be easily
overcome (if adequate funds are available with the local
authority) by dovetailing SIMPLAN with commercially
available transport model with network assignment
capability (which includes the highly resource-consuming task of building the transport network, say in a
GIS environment).
The fifth simplification is that employment inputs are
only by SEG, without sub-categorisation by industry
sector (e.g., primary, secondary and tertiary), due to a
lack of economic census data. This limitation implies
that economic vitality (usually measured by the mix of
jobs by sector) and its social implications cannot be
estimated. However, if an economic census (or even a
sample survey on a regular basis) is carried out by the
local authority, then employment inputs by SEG and
sector (creating a two-way matrix) could be easily
introduced into the model with minor structural
changes. The above discussion is summarised in
Table 36.
11. Conclusions
11.1. On alternative urban forms
At this point, an understanding of the merits and
demerits of alternative urban forms, as reported by
academics and professionals, would provide a useful
191
background. Since the literature on this debate is vast,

only a brief discussion is included here.
In theory, cities could be categorised as being either
compact or dispersed (and, of course, there could be
cities that may exhibit both properties). A theoretical
manifestation of a compact form could be thought of as
people living at high densities, with high levels of public
transport, walking and bicycling use, and perhaps
shorter average trip distances. On the other hand, a
theoretical manifestation of a dispersed city could be
thought of as people living at lower densities, with most
trips being performed by private automobiles, and
perhaps longer average trip distances. Burchell et al.
(2002) in their report, Cost of sprawl2000, conclude
that sprawl has both positive and negative effects.
Amongst the key benefits reported in this study are:
affordable housing, as land further out is cheaper;
housing with larger per capita interior and exterior
space; lesser travel times for suburban-to-suburban
commuters; and lesser intensity of traffic congestion in
low-density areas. On quality of life aspects, lower
crime rates and better quality of schools are reported.
The key negative effects of sprawl are higher costs of
infrastructure and public services operations; more
vehicle miles travelled; longer travel times; higher per
capita travel costs; higher reliance on private automobiles; excessive transport energy use; and loss of
agricultural and environmentally fragile land. On
quality of life aspects, the negatives reported are: more
air pollution; weakened sense of community and
fostering of social exclusion; and spatial mismatch.
(Spatial mismatch is a phenomenon described first by
Kain in 1968, in which the poor are forced to live in
central cities owing to exclusionary land use zoning
policies, which limits their access to suburban bluecollar jobs (see Anas, Arnott, & Small, 1998; Ihlanfeldt,
1992; Kain, 1992).)
Newman and Kenworthy (1989a, 1989b), from their
study of 32 cities in North America, Australia, Europe,
Canada and Asia, concluded that as urban density
decreases, gasoline consumption increases markedly,
with 30 persons per hectare being suggested as the cutoff mark (see Fig. 44). They report negative correlations
of land use and transport variables, such as land use
intensity, traffic restraint, and public transport use, with
gasoline use, suggesting that if a city wanted to lower its
gasoline use and automobile dependence, it ought to
increase land use intensity and degree of centralisation,
and improve its public transport. However, Newman
and Kenworthys notion of correlation between density
and energy use in transport has been refuted; for
example, Gordon and Richardson (1989) say that their
192
Fig. 44. Relationship between density and gasoline use.
analysis is faulty, the problems are wrongly diagnosed,

and that their policy and planning prescriptions are
inappropriate and unfeasible. In addition, a later study
by Gordon (1997) uses data from Newman and
Kenworthy (1989a), and recalculates the correlation
after incorporating fuel prices. He finds that it is indeed
the price of fuel that accounts for variations in transport
energy use, rather than density, and opines that higher
fuel prices would also tend to generate more compact
settlement patterns (a finding similar to Clark (1951). A
recent study (Brownstone & Golob, 2009) concentrating on California (based on a sample National
Household Survey) concludes that density directly
influences vehicle usage, and both density and vehicle
usage influence fuel consumption. Comparing two
households that are similar in all respects except
residential density, a lower density of 1000 (roughly
40% of the mean value) housing units per square mile
implies a positive difference of almost 1200 miles per
year (4.8%) and about 65 more gallons of fuel per
household (5.5%).
From a broader perspective, Kahn (2006) reports that
there is no correlation between quality of life and a
citys spatial structure. He further concludes that
compact cities, with all employment located in the
CBD, limit economic opportunities. Firms that need
large parcels of land to operate and people who have a
strong preference for their own large private plots of

land face significant tradeoffs if they must locate in
compact cities. Sprawled cities offer both firms and
households more choices, while the diversity of
consumer choices for firms and households is likely
to shrink in compact cities. Findings from a study of
English cities (Burton, 2000), investigating the validity
of the claims that a higher-density urban form promotes
social equity, indicate that compactness (compact city)
is likely to be negative for certain aspects, e.g. less
domestic living space, lack of affordable housing, and
increased crime levels. However, it may offer benefits,
such as improved public transport use, reduced social
segregation, and better access to facilities. In general,
these conclusions are similar to the benefits of sprawl as
reported by Burchell et al. (2002), but in contrast with
those of Newman and Kenworthy (1989a, 1989b) and
Brownstone and Golob (2009). On commuting times,
Kahn (2006) concludes that compact cities feature
greater congestion and higher commute times, while in
sprawled cities certain global environmental externalities, such as greenhouse gas production, are likely to be
exacerbated (but technological advance has mitigated
many of the environmental problems associated with
sprawl). An empirical study of US cities by Gordon,
Kumar, and Richardson (1989) concludes that a
polycentric and dispersed metropolitan area facilitates
shorter commuting times. Both these conclusions are

similar to Burchell et al. (2002).
A study by Lin and Yang (2006) of medium- and
small-sized cities in Taiwan suggests that the influence
of the compact-city paradigm (i.e., a high-density
pattern and intensification) has a direct negative effect
on environmental and social sustainability, but positively affects economic sustainability (indirectly, i.e. via
(creation of a) mix of (land) uses)the latter being in
contrast with what Kahn (2006) concludes. Lin and
Yang acknowledge that their findings do not present a
full and accurate picture of the sustainability of the
compact-city paradigm in Taiwan, owing to sample size
and data limitations; nonetheless, they do cast doubt on
whether the compact-city paradigm is good for all
sustainability issues. In contrast, Gordon (2008) opines
that the social and political implications of sustained
efforts to promote higher densities by means of severely
restricting greenfield development, which would raise
dwelling prices and restrict access to housing, would be
unacceptable. On similar lines, Brueckner (2000), in the
context of US cities, concludes that greatly restricting
urban expansion might needlessly limit the consumption of housing space, depressing the standard of living
of American consumers. Rather, the approach to adopt
would be one that recognises the damage done by an
unwarranted restriction of urban growth, such as
development taxes and congestion tolls, which attack
sprawl at its source by correcting specific market
failures. Specifically researching social interaction and
urban sprawl, a recent study by the same author
(Brueckner & Largey, 2008) indicates that density and
social interaction may be negatively correlated.
From the above discussion, it appears that both forms
of urban development have merits and demerits
reported in the literature, but neither form has a set
of settled arguments as to which form is absolutely
better than the other, which was corroborated by the
finding of this study. It would also appear that cities
across the globe exhibit different responses to urban
form. This perpetual debate, on which city form is ideal,
was addressed in this study in the context of developing
countries. It showed that indeed a compact or dispersed
form does not appear to be an outright winwin
proposition. As shown in Section 9.1, in economic
terms, a dispersed form offers more benefits. This
finding is in line with Burchell et al. (2002) and Kahn
(2006), but in contrast with Lin and Yang (2006),
Newman and Kenworthy (1989a, 1989b), and Brownstone and Golob (2009). Purely from the perspective of
travel time savings, it was shown that a compact form
achieves more, but suffers when it comes to the
193
consumer surplus in both housing rent and transport.

This is because of higher housing rents and lower
proportionate change in generalised travel costs, as
compared to average trip distances for private and slow
modes (implying higher generalised cost per kmsee
Table 23). As expected, in terms of land requirements, a
compact form consumes less. With regard to CO2
emissions, compaction policy was the most beneficial,
but it needs to be borne in mind that congestion effects
could tilt the balance. In terms of social aspects, the
SEG mix of households achieved in compaction is
better than dispersed policy (albeit not so compared to
trend policy). This is in contrast with the findings of Lin
and Yang (2006), who conclude that compact form has a
negative effect on social aspects. In summary, it
therefore appears that the performance of urban forms
has a strong bearing on the specific attributes of the
context, such as type of economy, cultural preferences
and political environment, and does not appear to have
globally generalisable merits or demerits.
11.2. On the model structure and operationality
Some of the LUTI modelling approaches prevailing
in developed countries were discussed in Section 4.4.
Literature with specific references to developing
countries opines that although full-fledged LUTI
models are difficult to develop given the data
availability constraints, it is possible to build simplified
models from available data to inform planning policymaking. In this study, such an approach was demonstrated for Ahmedabad and it was shown how the
current approach to planning can be enhanced to better
inform the plan-making process.
With regard to operating the model, a spreadsheetbased approach was adopted to reinforce the simplicity.
This approach offers a visually driven user-interface and
therefore improves the understanding of the processes
within the model and makes it more flexible for
operating and updating the model (which was also
corroborated by government decision makers and
planners, to whom it was presented in August 2008).
The other advantage is the speed of running the model.
As discussed in Section 11.1, it is apparent that neither
of the alternative urban forms is optimum in an absolute
sense and that each of them offers different benefits.
Planners must therefore test alternative designs and
learn from the quantified merits and demerits of
alternative urban forms (like the ones tested in this
study), or combinations of such forms, to pursue the
optimum outcome for the local context in question. This
is precisely possible given the speed advantage in
194
addition to the in-house running capability of the model

owing to its simplicity. For example, planners can
quickly and reliably test different FSI norms by zone
(i.e., can have an appropriate mix of compaction and
dispersal) to arrive at a final plan. The spatial
disaggregation of outputs would allow planners to
make more detailed land use zoning plans and
accompanying DCRs than is currently possible. In
addition, preliminary testing of a transport policy
package (e.g., new arterial roads, capacity expansion of
existing roads, dedicated busways, etc.) in conjunction
with a land use/spatial policy package can be carried out
quickly. By associating SIMPLAN with any commercially available transport network modelling software,
the reliability of outputs from testing transport policies
could be enhanced.
3.
4.
11.3. On the context of developing countries

Scholarly literature on urban development and
planning in developing countries indicates that disaggregated temporal and spatial data limitations make
the application of model-based planning approaches
challenging (Chatterjee & Nijkamp, 1983; Srinivasan,
2005). In addition, it maintains that interaction between
the scientific community and the administrative and
political personnel concerned with city planning has
decreased over the years (Chatterjee, 1983).
This study demonstrated that, although challenging,
it is possible to apply analytical tools and develop
simplified urban models to inform plan making using
available data. This authors interaction with decision
makers and planners during the course of this study
indicated that they are open and willing to adopt the
path of a more scientific approach to planning. Overall,
the interaction was very welcoming, and indicates their
willingness to bridge the gap between theory and
practice, if appropriate efforts are made.
11.4. Summary of key research findings
The findings from this study have been mentioned in
the text as appropriate. However, the purpose of this
section is to summarise the key ones, as follows.
1. The current plan-making approach followed by the
planning authorities in Ahmedabad lacks a quantitative framework, insofar as being able to test and
assess alternative planning policies before arriving at
the final plan.
2. It is possible to apply urban modelling approaches
prevalent in the developed world, rooted in the spatial
5.
6.
interaction tradition (e.g., Lowry, etc.) and microeconomic theory of demandsupply (e.g., MEPLAN,
etc.) to developing countries with data availability
constraints.
Applying the classical theories of spatial organisation to Ahmedabad, it was seen that Ahmedabad does
not conform to the concentric zone theory, but does
exhibit the formation of wedges of sectors along
transport routes, as suggested by sector theory. The
formation of multiple centres is also evident in
Ahmedabad, as suggested by the multiple-nuclei
theory.
Though Ahmedabad is relatively more compact
compared to some other cities of the developed
world, analysis of the past 30-year data indicates that
the city has a tendency towards dispersal. In addition,
a reduction in population density in central areas and
an increase in peripheral areas is observed for
Ahmedabad. These trends are likely to continue for
some time in the future.
Analytical models of location and land use were
applied to Ahmedabad. In that, it was shown that the
monocentric bid-rent theory was not applicable
directly to Ahmedabad, owing to its polycentric
character (see Fig. 15). However, the distribution of
settlements in the Ahmedabad sub-region did show
some sort of formation, as suggested by the central
place theory.
In the context of Ahmedabad, dispersing the city in
terms of dwellings is more beneficial economically,
and the more extreme the dispersal policy, the
better it is. If compaction needs to be pursued, then it
appears to perform better when both dwellings and
jobs are considered. In terms of consumption of land
for new development, obviously, by definition
compaction policy consumes least land. In addition,
CO2 emissions are least in compaction, because of
shorter average trip distances (but bearing in mind
that road congestion is not modelled). With regard to
the mix of households by income group, trend policy
is optimum, followed by compaction and then
dispersal (with milder versions of both performing
relatively better). In terms of social equity, it appears
that compaction and dispersal policies perform
relatively better if both dwellings and employment
are altered. Fig. 45 provides a snapshot summary of
key assessment indicators.
11.5. Suggestions for further research

With regard to the perpetual debate on compact vs.
dispersed city form, it was seen in the previous section
195
Fig. 45. Snapshot summary of key assessment indicators.
that neither of these urban forms offers an outright

adoptable urban policy to pursue. This author is
therefore led to believe that the intricacies of how
cities work and sustain themselves successfully are
more to do with economic factors, rather than just
physical factors such as the city form and transport
network geometry. Many scholars appear to be critical
of the tacit assumption that high density promotes lower
energy use or that low-density, dispersed settlements
have a negative effect on the environment. It is clear that
a deeper understanding of the way people locate and
travel is the key to solving the energy use problem. In
addition, by dispersing employment for Ahmedabad, it

was learnt that indeed work trip distances do reduce (see
Table 18). However, more case studies need to be
conducted in developing countries to explore the
performance of different physical forms and transport
networks when combined with economic factors (such
as the generalised cost of location and travel, and the
cost of employing people (not addressed in this study)).
In recent times, the view that IT-based communication technology (such as the internet, mobile wi-fi,
videoconferencing, etc.) has an impact on travel
behaviour, is gathering research momentum. It is not
196
clear that a strong connection exists, but nonetheless it

is worth exploring in developing countries like India,
where the IT sector has been booming for the last
decade or so. In this study, this connection was not
addressed, due to lack of data on such activities.
However, the next Census is round the corner (i.e.,
2011) and with the possibility of supplementing data
gathering on employment activities with sample
surveys, this aspect can be included in urban modelling.
Another debate gathering momentum in recent times
is the connection between the built environment and
health, both in terms of air quality and physical activity.
Handy, Boarnet, Ewing, and Killingsworth (2002)
conclude that the available evidence lends itself to
the argument that a combination of urban design, land
use patterns and transportation systems that promotes
walking and bicycling will help create active, healthier
and more liveable communities. However, they indicate
that collaborative research efforts that build on the
research paradigms of the fields of both urban planning
and public health are essential to making further
progress in the effort to build healthier and more
liveable communities. On similar lines, Frumkin
(2002), while investigating the relationship between
sprawl and health, concludes that data show both health
benefits and costs. Frumkin particularly picks up on the
unequal distribution of the adverse health effects of
sprawl. Frank (2000) concludes that although there are
studies that show the existence of a relationship
between the built environment and physical activity
and health, their findings have been refuted, based on
methodological grounds and inaccurate interpretation
of data. Frank, Engelke, Schmid, and Killingsworth
(n.d.) carried out an extensive literature review on the
relationship between physical activity and the built
form. They concluded that in the American context,
empirical research supports the claim that important
relationships exist between urban form and travel
behaviour. However, the general dearth of good
empirical literature on the effects of these variables
on physical activity patterns is problematic. Part of the
problem lies in the inherent complexity involved in
adequately measuring many of the urban form and
demographic variables and in disentangling the causeand-effect relationships between them. Findings based
on a more recent study (Frank, Saelens, Powell, &
Chapman, 2007) that used 2000 samples in neighbourhoods in the metropolitan region of Atlanta, USA,
suggest that creating walkable environments may result
in higher levels of physical activity.
It is clear from the above discussion that further
research on fine-tuning the methodology for ascertain-
ing the strength of this relationship needs to be

undertaken. Also, given the fact that developing
countries have a higher level of non-motorised travel,
it would be interesting to compare with developed
countries its implication on physical activity, in addition
to the differences in the pace of growth, economic and
socio-cultural factors.
Suggestions for specific further work in the context
of Ahmedabad that crop up from the various limitations
outlined in the study are summarised as follows. It is
likely that these could apply to other Indian cities, and
cities in other developing countries.
1. City-region analysis of economic activity needs to be
undertaken, in order to initiate the modelling of
employment location, with the possibility of integrating modelling techniques from new economic
geography (usually associated with Paul Krugman,
Anthony Venables, Masahisa Fujita, JacquesFrancois Thisse, amongst others; see Mikkelsen,
2004, and Lafourcade & Thisse, 2008). If employment is output from the model by SEG then it could
be used in making more detailed land use regulations
pertaining to commercial use. In addition, the SEG
mix of jobs in each zone could be used to calculate a
measure of vitality, which could be a useful social
indicator.
2. If employment location is not modelled, then sample
surveys need to be undertaken at zone level to
ascertain employment mix by SEG to create more
accurate inputs and enhanced economic outputs.
3. The distinction between basic and service (local)
sector employment (as is usually done in Lowry-type
models, see Section 4.4.2) was not possible in this
study, owing to the lack of data availability on the
proportion of employment strictly due to local
population. On the other hand, in recent years, this
author has witnessed a new, emerging phenomenon
in Ahmedabad, of people doing local shopping in
places much further away from their residences
(though not supported by quantitative evidence)
dubbed mall culture by the local media. The prime
reason for this is the rapid springing up of shopping
malls all over the city in the last eight years or so. The
propensity of citizens to shop in malls could be
attributed to products being available more cheaply
than at the local grocers, and the ability of malls to
combine entertainment with shopping in the form of
cine-multiplexes, cafes, game arcades, etc. It is very
likely that this phenomenon exists in other cities of
India and the world. A similar pattern of non-local
access exists in Ahmedabad with private schools
197
Fig. 46. Chakdaa ride-shared para-transit mode.
(traditionally, the employees of which are treated as

serving the local population). Therefore, studies need
to be undertaken to establish the proportion of service
employment strictly servicing the local population
and its trend in the future to better inform the
modelling process.
4. Sample surveys to ascertain modal split by SEG and
by trip purpose need to be undertaken, in order to
directly apply modal split by SEG to journey-to-work
trips by resident workers rather than at an aggregated
level, to correct the discrepancy between value of
time (VOT) from the modal split model and
residential location model. In addition, this would
also improve the estimation of change in transport
consumer surplus (see note below Table 23).
5. Para-transit modes (usually ride-shares for work trips
used by low-income people, like the one shown in
Fig. 46) are not considered. However, based on this
authors local knowledge, this mode is increasing in
preference for work trips within and between
peripheral areas of Ahmedabad, owing to lower
restrictions imposed by authorities with regard to
operation, and low frequency or no bus routes.
Therefore, such modes in the future need to be
incorporated into the model, supported by adequate
sample surveys on its usage. Researching motorisation in developing countries, Kutzbach (2009)
suggests that it is important to include all available
modes in modelling.
6. Surveys to establish the relationship between average

vehicular speeds and emissions in the Indian context
(wherein both vehicular and road conditions are very
likely to be different from other countries) need to be
undertaken. Using such a relationship, accurate
estimates of the impact of vehicular emissions can
be made (see Section 9.2.2), which also ties in with
the following point.
7. Local authorities should develop a road network at
least of the main roads of the city in a GIS environment
to enable network modelling. This would enable
appropriate land usetransport feedback, making the
modelling outputs more realistic (see Section 7.2). In
addition, this creates a feedback loop that is useful in
modelling network congestion, making transport
outputs more realistic and enabling more accurate
estimation of CO2 emissions (see Section 9.2.2).
8. Economic studies investigating the price elasticity of
housing supply need to be undertaken to improve the
estimation of producer surplus (see Section 9.1.2).
9. Economic studies looking at the role of agricultural
land in city-regions, and its significance in the light of
rapidly globalising food markets, need to be carried
out in developing countries to better inform the
debate on conversion of agricultural land to urban
uses (see Section 9.6).
Given that Ahmedabad has well-reputed academic
institutions for architecture and planning and manage-
198
ment studies most of the further research suggestions

discussed above could be carried out by post-graduate
students as part of their masters/doctoral dissertation,
in close collaboration with the Ahmedabad Urban
Development Authority and the Ahmedabad Municipal
Corporation.
11.6. A final note
This research study set out to explore how a more
scientific and transparent approach could be introduced
to enhance planning in the context of developing
countries, where data constraints pose significant
challenges. Based on the census data and past studies
commissioned by the government of Gujarat, a
simplified modelling suite called SIMPLAN was
developed. A spreadsheet environment was used to
develop the model to provide visually driven userinterface, making it simpler to understand, operate and
update the model.
SIMPLAN was used to test and assess alternative
urban planning policies for year 2021 and it was
demonstrated how to use the model outputs to enhance
the plan-making process. In addition, the modelling
outputs allowed us to inform the wider debate on
compact vs. dispersed urban forms. It was shown that, in
the context of the case study city of Ahmedabad, neither
policy provides an outright winwin solution. This
study demonstrates that each city has to test out the pros
and cons of such policy alternatives for themselves
before forming macro-level plans for the future.
A series of presentations and meetings was held in
August 2008 in Ahmedabad with government decision
makers and planners, and planning professionals, in
order to obtain feedback on the proposed approach.
Overall, it was acknowledged by the decision makers
and government planners that such an analytical
approach should indeed form the basis of all planning
exercises, and therefore is greatly welcomed. Practitioners were of the opinion that it is imperative for urban
local government authorities to impart more analytical
rigour and a transparent approach in making city plans.
In that, they could start with such a simplified urban
simulation model, and once they have adopted it, they
can then enhance and update the model, as more
disaggregated data become available, to make it a more

powerful tool to aid their decision-making capabilities
over the years.
Overall, the simplicity of operating and updating
SIMPLAN and its low resource intensiveness (in terms
of both time and money), allowing the testing of several
planning alternatives, make this approach, in the Indian
context, innovative in its own right. The proposed
approach goes beyond the conventional realm, by using
simple yet robust tools, developed with appropriate
consideration to both data and resource constraints
posed by the local context. However, in the realm of
applied research, this study is not an end in itself, owing
to the limitations outlined above (see Table 36). Rather,
it represents a first step in trying to bring a more
scientific temperament and transparency to planning in
developing countries, by introducing a model-based
approach. A study attempting to link land use and
transportation, based on the case study of Delhi, India
(Srinivasan, 2005) reaches a similar conclusion,
suggesting that the idea of a data-based land use and
transportation plan, instead of one based on ideology
alone, must be incorporated into the planning process.
This study could serve as a useful precedent to
researchers working on developing countries for
furthering contributions to both the theory and the
practice of urban planning.
Acknowledgements
The author wishes to acknowledge the advice of
Professor Marcial Echenique and Dr Ying Jin, Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge.
Gratitude is expressed to Cambridge Commonwealth
Trust, Hinduja Cambridge Trust, Churchill College, and
Kettles Yard Travel Fund for part funding support. All
tables and figures are created by the author unless
mentioned otherwise. The views expressed in this paper
are solely those of this author.
Appendix A. Employment inputs2001 and
2021
See Table A1
Table A1
Employment inputs2001 and 2021.
Zone Zone name
PTQS
Base
2001
Trend
Compaction and dispersal
Trend 2021
(LBGC, 2001) policy 2021 policies (with same employment)
not useda
BS01 TR21; DS21 CC21
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Walled city
Vasna-Paldi
Dudheshwar-MadhupuraGirdharnagar
Saraspur-Asarwa
Naroda-Sardarnagar
Bapunagar-RakhialKokhraMehmdabad
Nikol-Odhav
Maninagar-Kankaria
Vatva-Badodara
Cantonment
Bhat-Chiloda-Nabhoi
Kathwada-Muthiya
Thaltej-Vastrapur-VejalpurMakarba-Ambli-Shilaj
Sola-Gota-ChandlodiaGhatlodia-Ranip
Adalaj-ChandkhedaKali-MoteraZundal-Khoraj
Gandhinagar City
Dispersal
with
different
employment
DS 22-78
4
4
3
3
2
5
5
4
4
3
6
6
5
5
4
211,805
49,169
129,851
92,779
75,891
272,829
52,344
133,660
98,684
79,592
296,477
65,109
162,515
117,185
90,806
296,477
65,109
162,515
117,185
90,806
313,478
72,842
181,924
129,841
100,225
236,965
54,900
141,871
101,556
81,339
2
4
3
3
5
4
4
6
5
124,326
66,315
209,700
131,074
71,861
219,251
149,112
88,202
263,422
149,112
88,202
263,422
164,342
98,304
293,910
133,374
74,310
229,883
4
4
2
2
1
1
1
2
3
2
5
5
3
3
2
2
2
3
4
3
6
6
4
4
3
3
3
4
5
4
46,597
93,205
100,730
13,862
7,532
6,480
13,894
10,523
15,086
78,538
49,495
97,321
108,845
15,794
16,471
16,008
35,649
26,136
42,224
182,128
61,631
122,680
121,743
15,774
11,562
10,588
23,165
17,876
28,195
129,192
61,631
122,680
121,743
15,774
11,562
10,588
23,165
17,876
28,195
129,192
69,079
137,890
133,162
15,775
8,380
7,209
15,457
12,097
17,904
90,270
52,218
104,234
108,070
15,298
15,160
13,042
27,963
26,687
46,157
198,543
57,702
165,071
106,304
106,304
66,874
147,086
26,534
75,550
46,849
46,849
29,518
53,401
69,548
148,444
110,047
110,047
79,954
176,378
1,500,068 2,038,434
2,038,434
2,038,434 2,038,434
2,038,434
Total
1
2
3
4
5
CC
CC
CC
DS
DS
DS
80-20 90-10 100-0 20-80 10-90 0-100
Compaction
with
different
employment
CC 92-08
Key: PTQS = Public transport quality score; BS01 = Base 2001.

a
Not used for inputs but is shown just for comparison.
199
200
Table B1
Dwelling inputs2001 and 2021.
Zone
Zone name
Base (total
dwellings)
Dwelling increments 20012021

Trend policy
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Total
Walled city
Vasna-Paldi
Dudheshwar-MadhupuraGirdharnagar
Saraspur-Asarwa
Naroda-Sardarnagar
Bapunagar-RakhialKokhraMehmdabad
Nikol-Odhav
Maninagar-Kankaria
Vatva-Badodara
Cantonment
Bhat-Chiloda-Nabhoi
Kathwada-Muthiya
Thaltej-Vastrapur-VejalpurMakarba-Ambli-Shilaj
Sola-Gota-ChandlodiaGhatlodia-Ranip
Adalaj-ChandkhedaKali-Motera-Zundal-Khoraj
Gandhinagar City
Dispersal variations
(with same employment)
CC80-20
CC90-10
CC100-0
DS20-80
DS10-90
DS0-100
Compaction with
different
employment
CC92-08
Dispersal with
different
employment
DS22-78
68,140
37,262
25,947
75,977
36,944
3,192
18,205
7,979
32,876
3,482
10,871
20,773
14,755
38,261
4,770
15,288
22,250
18,653
41,359
5,511
10,000
24,211
23,828
45,471
6,495
1,000
3,042
9,698
7,503
1,846
1,000
1,498
4,777
3,696
909
0
0
0
0
0
10,000
22,889
20,347
42,616
5,803
2,000
3,486
5,000
8,823
2,243
108,414
37,962
103,567
12,809
22,162
11,682
15,889
27,507
18,898
17,662
30,581
23,049
20,014
34,662
28,559
3,828
5,674
7,112
1,885
2,795
3,503
0
0
0
18,351
31,885
24,824
4,646
6,486
8,421
45,909
64,149
74,139
2,840
2,096
10,909
17,379
8,943
9,188
56,314
8,585
27,559
64,715
1,085
1,567
5,314
6,301
8,726
6,835
33,004
9,592
33,979
77,151
100
746
605
1,180
2,328
3,297
20,108
10,172
37,673
84,305
100
365
292
584
1,161
1,646
10,048
10,941
42,576
93,801
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
962
6,709
20,738
1,000
5,000
10,000
12,000
15,000
12,000
111,579
474
3,305
10,214
1,000
5,000
10,000
12,000
15,000
12,000
126,209
0
0
0
1,000
5,000
10,000
12,000
15,000
12,000
140,839
10,428
39,339
86,920
78
308
235
449
898
1,193
7,996
1,106
7,734
24,977
1,000
5,000
10,000
12,000
15,000
12,000
113,939
58,833
9,128
3,185
1,590
25,464
31,124
36,783
1,140
22,434
27,221
15,954
5,083
2,539
27,689
33,485
39,280
1,825
17,863
94,187
39,398
31,481
15,732
52,714
60,685
68,656
13,033
56,399
966,323
340,558
340,558
340,558
340,558
340,558
340,558
340,558
340,558
340,558
1
2
3
4
5
Compaction variations (with same

employment)
Appendix B. Dwelling inputs2001 and 2021

See Table B1
Appendix C. Transport inputs2001 and 2021
C.1. Private automobile (PA) speeds
C.2. Public transport speeds
C.3. Slow mode speeds (bicycling and walking)
C.4. Vehicle operating and maintenance costs
calculations and assumptions
C.5. Public transport (bus) fares
Appendix D. Spatial change indicators
Indicators to measure the change in the spatial
structure using population data by SIMPLAN zones, are
described below.
D.1. Dispersion index
Alan Bertaud (Bertaud, 2001; Bertaud & Malpezzi,
2003) proposed a measure to describe the shape
201
performance of a city. The argument is that the spatial

structure of a city can be defined by two complementary
components: (a) the distribution of population over
space; and (b) the pattern of trips made by people from
their residences to any other destination. Bertaud (2001)
maintains that the pattern of trips could be encapsulated
in the average distance per person to the centre. This is a
weighted average using the population of each ward as
the weight. Bertaud (2001) argues that, everything else
being equal, in a city with a small built-up area the
distance per person to the centre will be shorter than in a
city with a larger built-up area. Therefore, in order to
have a comparative measure of shape between cities, it
is necessary to have a measure independent of the area
of the city. This could be achieved by taking the ratio of
the average distance per person to the centre and the
average distance per person to the centre of a circle
whose area would be equal to the built-up area. Such a
measure, called the dispersion index r, can be
mathematically expressed as:
P
P
di wi
n d i wi
p
or r n
r
(A1)
2=3r
2=3 A=p
where di is the distance of the centroid of the ith tract (or
ward or zone) from the CBD, weighted by the tracts
share of population wi; A is the built-up area of the city;
r is the radius of a circle with area A; n is the total
number of tracts.
Table C1
Private automobile (PA) speeds (base values in km/h and alternative policies in % change over base).
Zone
Zone name
Base 2001a
TR21 (%)
CC21 (%)
DS21 (%)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Walled city
Vasna-Paldi
Dudheshwar-Madhupura-Girdharnagar
Saraspur-Asarwa
Naroda-Sardarnagar
Bapunagar-Rakhial-KokhraMehmdabad
Nikol-Odhav
Maninagar-Kankaria
Vatva-Badodara
Cantonment
Bhat-Chiloda-Nabhoi
Kathwada-Muthiya
Thaltej-Vastrapur-Vejalpur-Makarba-Ambli-Shilaj
Sola-Gota-Chandlodia-Ghatlodia-Ranip
Adalaj-Chandkheda-Kali-Motera-Zundal-Khoraj
Gandhinagar City
10.0
15.5
15.5
15.5
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
20.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
0.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
10.0
Based on CEPT (2006) and Adhvaryu (1995).
202
Table C2
Public transport speeds.
Base year 2001
Horizon year 2021
Code
Base
Code
TR21 (%)
CC21 (%)
DS21 (%)
1 = Good PT
2 = Moderate PT
3 = Poor PT
85% of PA
80% of PA
75% of PA
1 = Exclusive BRTS
2 = Normal BRTS
3 = Ordinary bus
20
10
5
50
35
15
20
10
5
Notes: [1] Each zone is assigned a code and accordingly the speeds are calculated. [2] For year 2021, percentage change over base is applied as
shown.
Table C3
Slow mode speeds (bicycling and walking).
Base year 2001
Horizon year 2021
Code
Base
Code
TR21 (%)
CC21 (%)
DS21 (%)
1 = Walled city
2 = AMC
3 = AUC-AMC
85% of PA
60% of PA
50% of PA
1 = Walled city
2 = AMC
3 = AUC-AMC
10.0
5.0
2.5
7.5
2.5
0.0
5.0
2.5
5.0
Notes: [1] Each zone is assigned a code and accordingly the speeds ares calculated. [2] For year 2021, percentage change over base is applied as
shown.
The numerator (i.e., the actual distance) in

Eq. (A1) is the average distance per person to
the centre (CBD or the geometric centre, as the
case may be) and the denominator (i.e., the theoretical
distance) is the average distance to the centre

of a circle (or cylinder with unit height) of
equivalent area and uniform population density (see
Fig. D1).
Table C4
Vehicle operating and maintenance costs calculations and assumptions.
Item
Unit
2W
Car
Bicycle
Life
Average km driven in
vehicle life
Capital cost
Salvage value a
[a] Capital cost/km
Maintenance
and repairs
[b] Unit maintenance
cost
Mileage
Fuel cost
[c] Unit fuel cost
Final unit cost
[a + b + c]
% Share
Average unit cost
(weighted)
Average unit cost
(2001 prices)
years
km
7
60,000
12
100,000
5
10,000
Rs
Rs
Rs/km
Rs/year
20,000
7,519
0.21
500
275,000
51,399
2.24
1,000
600
298
0.03
100
Rs/km
0.06
0.12
0.05
km/l
Rs/l
Rs/km
Rs/km
30
31
1.02
1.29
10
31
3.06
5.42
0
0
0
0.08
Rs/km
86
1.86
14
0.08
Rs/km
1.86
0.08
2001
Vehicle depreciation per year is assumed to be 15%.
% Increase assumed
Period
2W
Car
Bicycle
10
10
20 years
20 years
8
66,000
13
110,000
6
11,000
6
6
pa
pa
pa
64,143
24,114
0.61
1,604
881,962
164,845
6.52
3,207
1,924
957
0.09
321
0.19
0.38
0.16
35
98
2.84
3.64
15
98
6.54
13.45
0
0
0
0.25
80
0.25
20
5.64
2.13
0.09
15
6
20 years
pa
2021
203
Table C5
Public transport (bus) fares (2001 prices).
Distance (km)
Fare (Rs)
Distance (km)
Fare (Rs)
Distance (km)
Fare (Rs)
Distance (km)
Fare (Rs)
02
24
46
68
810
1
3
4
5
6
1012
1214
1416
1618
1820
7
7
8
8
9
2022
2224
2426
2628
2830
9
10
10
11
11
3032
3234
3436
3638
3840
11
12
12
12
13
Fig. D1. Calculation of dispersion index.
D.2. H-indicator (concentration/de-concentration

measure)
Inspired by physics, the H indicator (SCATTER,
2005) in discrete terms, i.e., if the area under study is
divided into n zones is defined as:
X
X
2
H
r
r
A
or
H
P r2
(A2)
i
i
i
i
i i i
where Pi is the population of the ith zone; Ai is the area
of the ith zone; ri is the population density of the ith
zone (i.e., Pi =Ai ); ri is the straight-line distance of
centroid of the ith zone from the centroid of the
CBD (or centroid of the study area).
By definition, if H is increasing over time, then it can
be concluded that the city is dispersing and vice versa.
Further to this, a relative concentration measure Hrel is
introduced to assess how outer areas are changing in
relation toPcentral areas. Hrel is calculated by using
Pi =1=n i Pi instead of Pi in Eq. (A2). Thus, if Hrel
is increasing over time, it indicates that the outer urban
ring is growing faster in relative terms than the urban
(or H rel ) can be calculated as the
centre. Lastly, H
percentage difference between H (or Hrel) for the year
under question and the start year of analysis. If H > 0

< 0,
then dispersion is likely to occur, and for H
concentration effects may dominate.
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Bhargav Adhvaryu completed his PhD at the Martin Centre for Architectural and Urban Studies, Department of
Architecture, University of Cambridge, UK in May 2009, and was a member of Churchill College. He has about 11
years of experience in teaching, research and consulting. From December 2004 to January 2007, he worked as
207
Research Associate at the same department. Prior to that, he taught post-graduate planning students at CEPT
University, Ahmedabad, India for three years; undergraduate architecture students at SCET, Surat, India for one year,
and undergraduate civil engineering and post-graduate planning students at SVRCET, Surat for a year. He was also
Project Manager at EPC, Ahmedabad, an urban planning consulting firm, for four years. Dr Adhvaryus additional
qualifications are: MSc Transport & DIC (Imperial College London & University College London, UK); MTech
Planning (CEPT University, Ahmedabad, India); BEng Civil (SVRCET, Surat, South Gujarat University, India), and
DipCEng (Surat, India).

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Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

Enhancing urban planning using simplified models:

E-mail address: ba247@yahoo.com.

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

9.1.1. Housing and work travel costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

developed in this study was presented to local authority

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

effect of net urban migration, natural increase, and

what is new and different in developing countries is that

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

accommodate the growing population, government

It is clear from the above discussion that the

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

Fig. 1. Percentage of urban population.

and 20% to 3%, respectively, while the decline for

in India in 2001 is even higher than the total population

Annual growth rate (%)

Annual growth rate (%)

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

Data source: Compiled from Gurumukhi (n.d.) and Jacquemin (1999).

2001, the percentage of urban population grew from

only the population of the Ahmedabad Municipal

Fig. 2. Location of Ahmedabad.

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

plan would be able to achieve its desired goals, it is

average of conversion factor method, compound

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

Fig. 3. Scientific approach to planning.

are problems in the content of the Ahmedabad

microeconomic framework, have been propounded.

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

lengths, passenger-kilometre travelled, and network

framework for assessing planning policy alternatives,

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

activities. Following independence and the partition of

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

for IT-enabled services ranked Ahmedabad fifth among

4.1.2. Explanatory models

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

invasion and succession. As the city grew and

Fig. 4. Concentric zone theory.

concentric zone theory, the sector theory, and the

4.2.2. Sector theory (1939)

Fig. 5. Sector theory.

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

Fig. 6. Multiple-nuclei theory.

concluded that, rather than purely the distance from the

The innovative thing about this theory was that it

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

Fig. 7. Land use map of AMC area.

As noted before, although the sector theory provides

multiple-nuclei theory, as against the concentric zones

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

4.3.1. Isolated state (1826)

Fig. 8. All roads with commercial development allowed.

provide a useful quantitative basis. To this end, as

4.3.1.1. Concept of land rent. Von Thunen introduced

where S is the land rent (or surplus) per unit of land; q is

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207

Fig. 9. Land rent for various crops.

The second ring will have forestry, i.e., it will be

B. Adhvaryu / Progress in Planning 73 (2010) 113207