Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Deng Julong
Deynrt~iientof A~rton~crtion,
H~mzhongU ~ ~ i ~ ~ eofr 'Science
s i t ~ ~ rrncl Technologj~,W~rl7cr11,
People's Rey~rblicof Cl7incr
Received October 1988
Outline
Grey System theory was initiated in 1982 [7]. As far as information is concerned, the systems which lack information, such as structure message, operation mechanism and behaviour document, are referred to as Grey Systems.
For example, the human body, agriculture, economy, etc., are Grey Systems.
Usually, on the grounds of existing grey relations, grey elements, grey
numbers (denoted by 8 ) one can identify which Grey System is, where
"grey" means poor, incomplete, uncertain, etc. The goal of Grey Systeni and
its applications is to bridge the gap existing between social science and natural science. Thus, one can say that the Grey System theory is interdisciplinary, cutting across a variety of specialized fields, and it is evident that
Grey System theory stands the test of time since 1982.
As the case stands, the developn~entof the Grey System-as well as theoretical topic-is coupled with clear applications of the theory in assorted
fields.
The conccept of the Grey System, in its theory and successful application,
is now well known in China. The application fields of the Grey System involve agriculture [23, 77-81, 911, ecology [59], economy [61, 102, 103, 1041,
meteorology [58, 74,911, medicine [55, 891, history [63, 641, geography [I], industry [61, earthquake [73, 87, 881, geology [76, 1191, hydrology [98, 1121, irrigation strategy [261, military affairs, sports [116], traffic [67], management [30,
97, 1051, material science [82, 831, environment [ 1081, biological protection
[69,70], judicial system [loo], etc.
Projects which have been successfully completed with the Grey System
theory and its applications are as follows:
1. Regional econonlic planning for several provinces in China;
2. To forecast yields of grain for some provinces in China:
The Jo~rr~lal
of Grey Sj~sretii0957-3720 / 89/ S 03.50 @ Sci-Tech Information
Services. England and
.
China Petroleum Industry Press, P.R. China. Printed in P.R.China.
is an image at point k from the series to real number with map y and
y(xo, x i ) is an image at all points with k = 1, 2, 3,
n , where
a * . ,
Deng Jirlong
x = {xj[i= 0,
1, ..., n ,
I?
> 2)
(A4) (Aproachability)
y(x, ( k ) , x i ( k ) ) decreases along with A(k) increasing, where
and that
x (0) EY, x (1) EX,
$:.')E@
column
Deng Julong
Then
and that
then we have
have been
- 1))
'"
Grey Modeling
On the subject of differential modeling, T.C. Hxia follows that, for biological
phenomena, economy and biological medicine, one had better build a
differential model, but this has been impossible in the past. In Grey System
theory a dynamic model with a group of differential equations is developed
[15,20,42,44], which is called grey differential model (GM). To do this Deng
(1985)[20]inferred:
1. A stochastic process whose amplitudes vary with time is referred to as a
grey process;
2. The grey modelling is based on the generating series rather than on the
raw one;
3. The grey derivative, parallel shooting and grey differential equation are
b, are the coefficients; in Grey Systenl theory terms, cr is said to be a developing coefficient and b the grey input, x'O)(k) is a grey derivative which
maximizes the information density for a given series to be modelled.
According to the least square method, we have
ci,
there
(0)
+ c ~ z (12) = b
(1)
6(x"')
x '"(t At)/At
x'"(t - At) / At
'1)
(0)
and x
at point k.
where ~ ' " ( k ) , P'O'(1c) means calculating values of x
A grey differential equation having N variables is called GM(l,N), whose
expression can be written as follows:
where b is said to be an ith influence coefficient, which means that x i exercises influence on x (the behaviour variable). Then we have
ii = [CL, b,,
bNl
Model GM(1,I) plays an important role in grey forecasting, grey Programming and grey control. Model GM(1,N) has laid an important foundation for regional economic programming and grey multivariable control [42,
1021.
Grey Forecasting
The subjects of grey forecasting 121,431include:
series forecasting
calamities forecasting
season calamities forecasting
topological forecasting
systematic forecasting
As all of these are based on GM(l,l), we call'them grey forecasting, whose
objective is to unify the field and to bridge the gap between grey process theory and practice. Our intention is to make forecasting useful for decision and
policy makers who need future predictions.
Grey Series Forecasting
Grey series prediction is a comlnon technique available for forecastingwhich is referred to essential prediction-and direct use of GM(1,l) will enable us to know where and how tke events to be forecasted would appear.
(01
(0)(1)
-(O)
Let x
be a raw series, AGO x - x , x (t) the prediction value at
point t , then the series prediction process can be written as
(0)
(0)
(1)
where IAGO and AGO are maps which transfer ,?'I' to x and x
to x
respectively, and G M implies the grey modelling for GM(1,l) by x ( l ) . For a
series prediction, a variety of successful instances have been completed in different areas, such as grain yields prediction [62, 79, 1141, economic prediction
[ 108, 92, 1021, material science [82], epide~niology[891, electrical power [75],
traffic [671, technological progress [851, seismology [881,judicial systems [loo],
engineering [I201 and agriculture [I 17, 1181.
A
Calamities Prediction
C3 ,, 63
(0)
(0)
x r - (x (I,),
x'0'(m,)~C3,nx(0), .1=
1, 2,
then
(0)
(0)
-+x,
pll: x'O)(k)+k
(0)
p,: x (ni,)+nzr
p,: k , + k
"
(0)
+ ( p , ( l , ) , p'A (2,),
..., ~ ~ ( 1 2 ~ ) )
AGO: ( p , ( l , > , ..., pg(?zr))+(te)
where A,
IAGO GM AGO
*fiy(t)
5 > 12;
where p^y([) is a year to be forecasted in which the seasonal pest would occur at date d i
Instances would be to forecast the date that the first frost would occur in
Shanxi Province [91] and the date that the seasonal wind would appear in
Hunan and Guangxi Provinces.
Topological Prediction
IAGO . GM
AGO (P,}-(P^~"'(S),{di}*bi}
To forecast a variety of different variables as a whole, referred to a given system, it is said to be a systematic prediction. If the assumption is made that the
variables to be forecasted together are subordinated to, and modelled with,
GM(1,l) and the results for every variable can be obtained recursively one by
one, then such a forecasting is said to be a grey systematic prediction.
n) be the behaviour series referred to a given system,
Let x i (i= 1, 2,
then the whole x i can be forecasted by means of a grey systematic
prediction, if the following relationships between variables x i , i= 1, 2, ... n
hold,
(1)
where 2 I (i= 1, 2, ... 11) are the background grey numbers concerned with
derivatives
by GM,, and by g177,, the result or the model of it. As a function of gn?,,, consider the n -lth grey differential equation, as follows:
(1)
ds,, - 1
(1)
dt + ' 1 ~ ~ - ~ . l l - ~ 2 , , - ~
(1)
- ( l ~ l - ~ . , ~ ~ Y , l
(1)
*-d s I l _ ,
dt
(I)
+",,-l.rr-~
Xrr-I
-.
-NII-~.lpf
(g'",,)
17
-1th
relationship and
GM,
= ( g r ? ~ ,g1712,
,
.-. g11711)
It is evident that to model a variety of variables together by the grey systematic prediction which is obtained directly from a variety of models,
GM(l,l), the complex procedures which are necessary to solve differential
equation set by common means, are to be avoided.
The effect and convenience of the grey systematic prediction has been illustrated by many instances; for example, to forecast grain yield, applying fertilizers, yield per mu and irrigated area together in Shanxi Province [79].
Grey Decision-Making
Grey decision-making is primarily concerned with the grey strategy of situation, grey group decision making and grey programming.
Grey Strategy of Situation
Grey strategy of situation deals with the strategy-making based 011 multi-objects which are contradictory in the ordinary way. The situation named by
Grey System theory implies that the events to be attended to are coped over
by games; then we have
s = (ci, b ) = (event, game)
Y i= A , Y i = L ~ , E O ~ ,
i= l
u..
= {21C ,
r/
(2)
21..
0
011)
a-.,
21C
where zl, is a reference sample series, which implies the kenel of target,
then s
is a satisfactory situation and b,. the satisfctory game dealing with event a i ,iff
,i.
A grey variety of problems have been solved using the grey strategy of situation, such as the irrigation strategy in Henan Province [26], a forestation
strategy in Jinagsu Province and the agricultural economic division in Shanxi
Province [93, 1181.
Decision-Makingof Group
determined solely by grey statistics; the expert group whose original strategy
is obtained by grey prediction as usual and whose attention is paid only to the
exploited products; the final group of the three levels, namely, the managers
group, whose master strategy comes from official documentation and the
quantitative strategy concerned is obtained by grey clustering in an ordinary
way, taking only the category of investment into consideration.
A comprehensive strategy which gives consideration to the three levels can
be obtained by unifying the decision series referred to the three groups,
respectively, based on grcy relational space.
A case in the above-mentioned point is one to harness a chaanel in Henan
Province [26].
Grey Programming
where 3 is a grey target. While the vector c is referred to as a grey one whose
elements are grey numbers denoted with 63 ( c i ) , A is a grey matrix denoted
by
6, (5)
r,
Deng J u l o ~ ~ g
e
System
9Co)-
Control
Strategy
+Y
2
OM ( 1 . 1 )
In Fig. 1 the output of loop 1 (control object) is denoted as jr, the prediction value of the systems behaviour is denoted as 9"' which is obtained from
controller 2, the assigned quantity is denoted as y * and zr is a control strategy coming from loop 3.
The control principle is as follows: a transducer feeds the sampled data to
prediction controller 2, which functions as a computer. The prediction value
9"' as a calculated result of controller 2 is delivered to loop 3, which constitutes a control strategy as compared with y * . The control strategy zr stems
from loop 3 as an input, activating loop 3, and then stored therein. Should
the behaviour y 'O' occur in the future, the stored strategy u will deal with it
and lead the systems behaviour to a desired state.
A practical grey prediction controller has been initiated by [6].
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