Professional Documents
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CRISIL
Fundamental Grade
Assessment
CRISIL
Valuation Grade
Assessment
5/5
Excellent fundamentals
5/5
4/5
Superior fundamentals
4/5
3/5
Good fundamentals
3/5
2/5
Moderate fundamentals
2/5
1/5
Poor fundamentals
1/5
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Last updated: August, 2014
Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias
the grading recommendation of the company.
Disclaimer:
This Company commissioned CRISIL IER report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable. CRISIL Ltd.
(CRISIL) does not represent that it is accurate or complete and hence, it should not be relied upon as such. The data / report is subject to
change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this report. Nothing in this report
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purpose.
TTK
RevenuePrestige Ltd
RESEARCH
Valuation Grade
Industry
Household Durables
Fair Value
CMP
Calibrated price increases and higher operating leverage to boost margins in H2FY15
Despite raw material cost as a percentage of sales going down by 295 bps y-o-y owing to
change in the product mix, EBITDA margin contracted by 76 bps y-o-y to 12.1% as lower
utilisation in the newly commissioned cooker and cookware facility in Gujarat resulted in
under-absorption of fixed overheads. Earnings growth continues to disappoint (EPS growth
has not been higher than 1% in the past six quarters); PAT declined 7.7% y-o-y to 280 mn.
Going forward, we expect EBITDA margin to improve in H2FY15 as increase in top line is
likely to result in positive operating leverage, which is expected to boost earnings growth.
Excellent
Fundamentals
5
4
3
2
1
Poor
Fundamentals
Strong
Upside
NIFTY/SENSEX
7780/26109
TTKPRESTIG/
NSE/BSE ticker
TTKPRES
Face value ( per share)
10
Shares outstanding (mn)
11.6
Market cap ( mn)/(US$ mn)
44,897/729
Enterprise value ( mn)/(US$ mn)
43,723/710
52-week range ()/(H/L)
4,832/2,693
Beta
1.0
Free float (%)
29.6%
Avg daily volumes (30-days)
20,216
Avg daily value (30-days) ( mn)
84
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
100%
22.1%
6.7%
2.1%
20.9%
6.2%
2.4%
21.0%
70.0%
70.0%
70.4%
70.4%
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
6.4%
1.4%
80%
20.8%
KEY FORECAST
20%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
10%
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
11,046
13,598
12,955
14,725
17,254
EBITDA
1,781
2,121
1,680
1,881
2,454
1,133
1,329
1,045
1,725
1,673
Adj EPS ()
99.9
117.0
89.6
148.0
143.6
34.7
17.1
(23.4)
65.2
(3.0)
6.4%
2.8%
Operating income
Valuation Grade
90%
( mn)
Strong
Downside
New product launches and pick-up in consumer sentiment to support revenue growth
Driven by healthy growth in cooker and cookware segments, TTKs revenues grew 10.5%
y-o-y. Introduction of a range of new products, which were well accepted by the consumers,
translated into sturdy growth in cooker (14% y-o-y, excluding microwave cookers) and
cookware (32% y-o-y) segments. Although the appliances segment registered muted y-o-y
sales growth of 3%, growth is expected to bounce back in the subsequent quarters owing to
the low base of H2FY14. The regional concerns in key southern markets (power deficit in
Tamil Nadu and political unrest in Andhra Pradesh) are easing, which is likely to be beneficial
for the company going forward. Moreover, consumer sentiments are showing signs of pickup. TTK plans to launch new products which are likely to boost growth. Driven by these
factors, top line is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.4% over FY14-16E. However,
intensifying competition in the highly fragmented kitchen appliances space may play
spoilsport and, hence, is a monitorable.
CFV MATRIX
Fundamental Grade
TTK Prestige Ltds (TTKs) Q2FY15 revenues were in line but earnings were below CRISIL
Researchs expectations. Revenues grew 10.5% y-o-y to 3,820 mn driven by healthy growth
in cookware and cooker segments. Owing to higher contribution from premium products and
lower import cost, material cost as a percentage of sales declined by 295 bps to 56.3% from
59.2% in Q2FY14, which led to gross margin expansion. Despite this, EBITDA margin
contracted by 76 bps y-o-y to 12.1% as low utilisation in the newly commissioned Gujarat
plant resulted in higher overheads. Lower EBITDA margin coupled with higher depreciation
and tax outflow pulled down PAT by 7.7% y-o-y to 280 mn. We expect TTK to post higher
revenue growth in H2FY15 compared with the first half owing to a gradual revival in
consumer demand, new product launches and easing regional concerns in the key southern
markets. Subsequently, operating leverage arising out of higher top line is expected to aid
EBITDA margin expansion. We maintain our fundamental grade of 5/5.
3,690
3,857
0%
Promoter
FII
DII
Jun-14
Others
TTK Prestige
CNX 500
1-m
-14%
5%
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.0
RoCE (%)
63.8
47.5
27.3
25.3
29.0
RoE (%)
47.5
39.0
21.3
26.5
21.6
ANALYTICAL CONTACT
PE (x)
38.6
33.0
43.0
26.1
26.9
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
15.3
24.8
11.1
21.0
7.7
26.7
6.3
23.3
5.4
17.5
Returns
3-m
6-m
0%
25%
4%
1%
12-m
16%
4%
mohit.modi@crisil.com
sayan.sharma@crisil.com
bhaskar.bukrediwala@crisil.com
clientservicing@crisil.com
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q2FY14
q-o-q (%)
y-o-y (%)
H1FY15
H1FY14
y-o-y (%)
Net sales
3,820
3,364
3,456
13.5
10.5
7,183
6,519
10.2
2,149
1,855
2,047
15.9
5.0
4,004
3,833
4.5
56.3%
55.1%
59.2%
114bps
-295bps
55.7%
58.8%
-305bps
Employee cost
267
254
229
5.3
16.5
521
450
15.7
Other expenses
941
845
736
11.4
27.9
1,786
1,378
29.6
EBITDA
462
410
444
12.6
4.0
872
858
1.7
12.1%
12.2%
12.9%
-11bps
-76bps
12.1%
13.2%
-102bps
EBITDA margin
Depreciation
EBIT
48
46
40
5.0
20.9
94
64
47.1
414
365
404
13.5
2.3
778
794
(2.0)
(68.8)
11
22
78.0
(51.8)
16
53
403
359
383
12.4
5.4
762
742
2.8
11
12
26
(9.0)
(57.8)
23
44
(46.6)
PBT
414
371
409
11.7
1.3
785
785
0.0
Tax
135
106
106
27.3
27.3
240
224
7.2
PAT
280
265
303
5.5
(7.7)
545
561
(2.9)
Operating PBT
Other income
Adj PAT
280
265
303
5.5
(7.7)
545
561
(2.9)
7.3%
7.9%
8.8%
-56bps
-145bps
7.6%
8.6%
-102bps
11.6
24.0
11.6
22.8
11.6
26.0
5.5
(7.7)
11.6
46.8
11.6
48.2
(2.9)
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q2FY14
q-o-q (%)
y-o-y (%)
H1FY15
H1FY14
y-o-y (%)
1,480
1,350
1,380
9.6
7.2
2,830
2,570
10.1
740
560
560
32.1
32.1
1,300
1,040
25.0
Appliances
1,550
1,400
1,500
10.7
3.3
2,950
2,880
2.4
Others
Total
140
3,910
130
3,440
90
3,530
7.7
13.7
55.6
10.8
270
7,350
180
6,670
50.0
10.2
( mn)
( mn)
Revenues
7%
-10%
600
200
-40%
1,480
-30%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Cooker sales
Q2FY15
400
1,350
-20%
20%
0%
-16%
800
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
13%
10%
1,040
3,820
3,364
2,725
3,694
3,456
3,063
2,833
4,371
500
3,356
1,500
4%
Q4FY14
-10%
-2%
1,000
1,330
-15%
2,000
1,200
6%
Q3FY14
0%
30%
10%
1,380
10%
-4%
2,500
1,000
1,400
Q2FY14
3%
20%
1,190
1%
3,000
11%
40%
20%
Q1FY14
10%
50%
37%
980
11%
1,600
Q4FY13
3,500
1,800
30%
1,580
4,000
22%
Q3FY13
4,500
40%
1,330
31%
Q2FY13
5,000
32%
25%
800
700
17%
3%
-9%
600
( mn)
2,500
40%
20%
-5%
-7%
-8%
-20%
-52%
-40%
300
60%
33%
40%
2,000
0%
500
400
41%
13%
7%
1,500
9%
1%
-20%
-100%
Cookware
450
300
8%
250
6%
200
410
462
EBITDA
50
0%
2%
303
441
280
258
303
306
Adjusted PAT
TTK Prestige
CNX 500
Sep-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Oct-14
Jun-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Aug-11
Apr-11
Aug-10
Dec-10
Apr-10
Dec-09
Aug-09
Apr-09
Aug-12
1000
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jun-12
2000
('000)
Apr-12
3000
()
Feb-12
4000
280
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Dec-11
5000
265
6000
181
0%
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
100
2%
Q2FY15
283
Oct-14
461
Jul-14
444
Q1FY15
414
May-14
430
8%
4%
150
Q2FY13
621
10%
7.3%
6%
Q4FY14
4%
6.6%
Jan-14
200
350
10%
7.9%
Mar-14
300
Q3FY14
400
400
Nov-13
12%
12%
10.1% 9.9%
9.0%
Q2FY14
12.1%
10.4%
500
14%
Q1FY14
12.2%
Q4FY13
12.9% 12.5%
16%
Q3FY13
13.5%
500
497
1,550
( mn)
15.2%
600
100
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Appliances sales
14.8%
1,400
1,130
1,620
1,500
1,380
1,260
Q4FY13
Q2FY13
-60%
( mn)
-40%
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
1,990
500
Q3FY13
-80%
1,370
740
560
520
710
560
480
550
760
610
100
20%
0%
-19%
1,000
-60%
200
700
3%
-10%
-Indexed to 100
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
Unit
Revenues
( mn)
EBITDA
( mn)
EBITDA margin
PAT
( mn)
PAT margin
EPS
FY15E*
Old
14,725
New
14,725
FY16E
% change
0%
Old
17,254
New
17,254
% change
0%
1,967
1,881
-4%
2,543
2,454
-4%
13.4%
12.8%
-59bps
14.7%
14.2%
-52bps
1,759
1,725
-2%
1,712
1,673
-2%
11.9%
11.7%
-23bps
9.9%
9.7%
-22bps
151.0
148.0
-2%
146.9
143.6
-2%
*FY15 earnings include one-time cash flow (shown in other income) of 710 mn from the real estate project
FY15E
Revenues
No change
FY16E
Lowered as the ramp-up in capacity utilisation in the newly commissioned plant in Gujarat
EBITDA margin
Valuation
Grade: 3/5
We have lowered our earnings estimate by 2% each for FY15 and FY16. However, the impact
of the downward revision in earnings estimates on valuation is negligible as we maintain our
estimates for the explicit forecast period post FY16. We continue to value TTK by the DCF
method and reiterate our fair value of 3,690. We have valued the core business (excluding
the one-time income from real estate) at 3,657, which implies P/E multiples of 34.2x and
25.4x FY15E and FY16E EPS respectively. We value the revenues from the real estate
project at 33/share. The stock is currently trading at 3,857, which implies P/E multiples of
36.6x and 27.1x FY15E and FY16E EPS respectively (excluding the one-time real estate
income of 710 mn in FY15). At the current market price, the valuation grade is 3/5.
()
( mn)
6,000
60,000
5,000
50,000
4,000
40,000
3,000
30,000
2,000
20,000
1,000
10,000
Oct-14
EV
8x
P/E movement
16x
Jul-14
Oct-14
May-14
Mar-14
Oct-13
12x
Dec-13
Aug-13
May-13
Mar-13
Oct-12
Jan-13
Aug-12
20x
35x
Jun-12
Jan-12
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Oct-13
Dec-13
Aug-13
May-13
15x
30x
Mar-12
TTK Prestige
25x
Mar-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
20x
(Times)
200%
180%
70
160%
60
140%
120%
50
100%
40
80%
+1 std dev
30
60%
40%
20
20%
-1 std dev
10
Oct-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Oct-14
Jul-14
Jan-12
May-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
0%
Median PE
Nature of report
Fundamental
grade
Fair value
Valuation grade
CMP
(on the date of report)
07-Dec-11
Initiating coverage
5/5
2,392
2/5
2,787
24-Jan-12
5/5
2,392
3/5
2,401
15-May-12
5/5
2,950
3/5
3,098
11-July-12
5/5
2,950
2/5
3,297
16-Oct-12
5/5
2,800
2/5
3,203
12-Dec-12
Detailed report
5/5
3,250
2/5
3,827
22-Jan-13
5/5
3,250
3/5
3,278
23-May-13
5/5
3,250
3/5
3,513
22-July-13
5/5
3,050
3/5
3,354
28-Oct-13
5/5
3,050
3/5
3,262
27-Jan-14
5/5
3,050
2/5
3,398
28-Mar-14
Detailed report
5/5
3,050
3/5
3,051
05-Jun-14
5/5
3,050
3/5
3,302
31-Jul-14
5/5
3,690
3/5
3,888
17-Oct-14
5/5
3,690
3/5
3,857
Annexure: Financials
Income statement
( m n)
Operating incom e
EBITDA
EBITDA m argin
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Operating PBT
Other income
Exceptional inc/(exp)
PBT
Tax provision
Minority interest
PAT (Reported)
Less: Exceptionals
Adjusted PAT
Balance Sheet
FY12
11,046
1,781
16.1%
62
1,718
103
1,615
17
1
1,632
499
1,134
1
1,133
FY13
13,598
2,121
15.6%
90
2,031
202
1,830
20
2
1,852
521
1,331
2
1,329
FY14
12,955
1,680
13.0%
148
1,533
135
1,398
46
61
1,505
400
1,106
61
1,045
FY15E
14,725
1,881
12.8%
199
1,682
27
1,655
810
2,465
739
1,725
1,725
FY16E
17,254
2,454
14.2%
209
2,244
2,244
146
2,390
717
1,673
1,673
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Grow th
Operating income (%)
EBITDA (%)
Adj PAT (%)
Adj EPS (%)
44.5
40.5
34.7
34.7
23.1
19.1
17.3
17.1
(4.7)
(20.8)
(21.4)
(23.4)
13.7
11.9
65.2
65.2
17.2
30.5
(3.0)
(3.0)
Profitability
EBITDA margin (%)
Adj PAT Margin (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
RoIC (%)
16.1
10.3
47.5
63.8
54.2
15.6
9.8
39.0
47.5
38.8
13.0
8.1
21.3
27.3
23.1
12.8
11.7
26.5
25.3
43.1
14.2
9.7
21.6
29.0
29.5
Valuations
Price-earnings (x)
Price-book (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Sales (x)
Dividend payout ratio (%)
Dividend yield (%)
38.6
15.3
24.8
4.0
15.0
0.4
33.0
11.1
21.0
3.3
14.9
0.5
43.0
7.7
26.7
3.5
21.1
0.5
26.1
6.3
23.3
3.0
21.4
0.8
26.9
5.4
17.5
2.5
25.6
1.0
B/S ratios
Inventory days
Creditors days
Debtor days
Working capital days
Gross asset turnover (x)
Net asset turnover (x)
Sales/operating assets (x)
Current ratio (x)
Debt-equity (x)
Net debt/equity (x)
Interest coverage (EBITDA/interest)
Interest coverage (EBIT/Interest)
58
57
35
20
7.7
11.5
6.7
1.3
0.2
0.1
20.5
16.6
63
52
38
35
6.4
8.6
4.9
1.7
0.3
0.2
8.3
10.1
75
52
42
56
4.1
5.1
3.8
2.1
0.0
(0.0)
14.0
11.4
76
52
42
61
3.5
4.3
4.1
2.4
(0.2)
91.2
62.5
76
52
40
59
3.9
5.0
4.9
2.6
(0.2)
NM
NM
FY12
99.9
105.4
251.5
15.0
11.3
FY13
117.0
124.9
348.3
17.5
11.4
FY14
89.6
102.3
502.2
20.0
11.7
FY15E
148.0
165.1
613.2
31.6
11.7
FY16E
143.6
161.5
713.7
36.8
11.7
Ratios
Per share
Adj EPS ()
CEPS
Book value
Dividend ()
Actual o/s shares (mn)
( m n)
Liabilities
Equity share capital
Reserves
Minorities
Net w orth
Convertible debt
Other debt
Total debt
Deferred tax liability (net)
Total liabilities
Assets
Net fixed assets
Capital WIP
Total fixed assets
Investm ents
Current assets
Inventory
Sundry debtors
Loans and advances
Cash & bank balance
Marketable securities
Total current assets
Total current liabilities
Net current assets
Intangibles/Misc. expenditure
Total assets
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
113
2,738
2,851
597
597
68
3,516
114
3,841
3,955
1,151
1,151
101
5,207
117
5,737
5,853
269
269
205
6,327
117
7,031
7,147
205
7,353
117
8,202
8,318
205
8,524
1,507
868
2,375
4
1,658
1,529
3,188
0
3,378
271
3,649
0
3,520
30
3,550
0
3,414
32
3,445
0
1,749
1,060
1,424
223
4,457
3,320
1,137
3,516
2,355
1,432
584
326
4,697
2,700
1,997
23
5,207
2,668
1,491
505
296
90
5,050
2,391
2,660
18
6,327
3,054
1,695
574
1,086
90
6,498
2,714
3,784
18
7,353
3,578
1,891
586
2,042
8,097
3,128
4,970
18
8,434
BS NOT M
FY12
1,631
(463)
62
(619)
611
FY13
1,850
(488)
90
(757)
694
FY14
1,444
(295)
148
(603)
694
FY15E
2,465
(739)
199
(335)
1,590
FY16E
2,390
(717)
209
(319)
1,563
(1,523)
222
(1,301)
(925)
4
(921)
(605)
(90)
(695)
(100)
(100)
(105)
90
(15)
574
(197)
1
378
(312)
223
0
554
(232)
7
329
102
326
1,053
(882)
(272)
73
(28)
(29)
296
12
(269)
(431)
(12)
(700)
790
1,086
(502)
(502)
1,047
2,042
Q2FY14
3,456
13%
444
7%
12.9%
303
303
18%
8.8%
26
Q3FY14
3,694
7%
461
4%
12.5%
295
306
1%
8.3%
26
Q4FY14
2,725
-26%
283
-39%
10.4%
262
181
-41%
6.6%
16
Q1FY15
3,364
23%
410
45%
12.2%
265
265
46%
7.9%
23
Q2FY15
3,820
11%
462
4%
12.1%
280
280
-8%
7.3%
24
Cash flow
( m n)
Pre-tax profit
Total tax paid
Depreciation
Working capital changes
Net cash from operations
Cash from investm ents
Capital expenditure
Investments and others
Net cash from investm ents
Cash from financing
Equity raised/(repaid)
Debt raised/(repaid)
Dividend (incl. tax)
Others (incl extraordinaries)
Net cash from financing
Change in cash position
Closing cash
Quarterly financials
( m n)
Net Sales
Change (q-o-q)
EBITDA
Change (q-o-q)
EBITDA m argin
PAT
Adj PAT
Change (q-o-q)
Adj PAT m argin
Adj EPS
Note: FY15 earnings include one-time cash flow (shown in other income) of 710 mn from the real estate project
Source: CRISIL Research
CRISIL Research
mukesh.agarwal@crisil.com
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