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Joseph Lutgen
May 15 2009
Abstract
This document is an essay of purely researched material. The essay focuses
on weather modeling using differential equations. A basic understanding of
differential equations is suggested before reading the material herein.
Introduction
Differential equations plays an important role in weather modeling in modern times. In the 1920s the weather was predicted mostly using historical
events. Data on barometric pressure, wind, temperature and other factors were
recorded. Patterns were observed and research was done to see what happened
in the past to forecast the future weather. This method was inaccurate due to
the unpredictability of air currents. Weather can only be predicted on a small
time scale because of its chaotic nature. The first documented case of using calculations to predict weather was by a man named Lewis Fry Richardson in the
early 20th century. Although his forecasts were completely inaccurate, they led
to more meteorologists looking at math to predict weather. Lewis used physics
to determine rules about barometric pressure in that air currents would flow
toward the lower pressure zones. Along with wind velocity and other factors he
made mathematical models using differential equations with only paper and pen.
Currently computers have the capability of performing thousands of computations per second making modeling more efficient. Another man by the name
of Ed Lorenz was a meteorologist who developed a system of three ordinary
differential equations that were used to predict the weather back in the early
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1960s. Although these equations proved to be ineffective, they did show the
same pattern of unpredictability that occurs within the weather. Weather has
many contributable factors. One such factor is the heat produced from the sun
being varied over the surface of the earth. An additional factor is the differences
of air temperature over the surface of the earth. Vorticity also plays a major
part in weather modeling. Due to the earths rotation, the geostrophic wind
patterns are changed making twists and spirals which are high and low pressure
areas. Another variability in weather is due to pressure in the atmosphere decreasing as height increases. When air pressure decreases the temperature will
drop. Since precipitation is dependent on air pressure and air pressure is so
chaotic, it is difficult to predict weather more than a week into the future.
2.1
To find the equilibrium solutions for the Lorenz attractor, the initial equations
are set to 0.
0 = (y x)
0 = xz + rx y
0 = xy bz
2.1.1
X-nullclines
To find the x-null cline, the equation below must be solved for y.
0 = (y x)
Since is constant,
y=x
2.1.2
Y-nullclines
Z-nullclines
b(r 1)
2.2
Equilibrium
2.3
The real part of the eigenvalue for the jacobian will determine the classification of stable or unstable for the certain parameters of , b, and r. If all real
parts of the eigenvalues are negative, the system is stable. If any of the real
parts of the eigenvalues are positive, the system is unstable. When r < 1, there
is only one equilibrium point which is at (0, 0, 0). When this happens, the system is stable because it converges to zero. The Lorenz system that is intriguing
is when r > 470/19. At r > 470/19 the system is unstable. Using Matlab, a
program can be made to quickly determine the eigenvalues and eigenvectors for
any initial set of conditions , b, and r. An example of such a program is in the
following link.
This essay isnt strictly on the Lorenz system, therefore classifications for
each equilibrium point will be based on = 10, b = 8/3, and r being varied.
2.3.1
As mentioned above, when r is less than one there is only the equilibrium point
at the origin. This point is stable according to the calculations done by the
program mentioned.
2.3.2
Using a modified version of the previous program with given values of = 10,
b = 8/3, and r = 15 the eigenvalues for each equilibrium point can be obtained.
It turns out that the only unstable equilibrium point is at the origin.
2.3.3
Using the same program with r = 28 all equilibrium points become unstable.
This is where Ed Lorenz found the most fascinating results with respect to
chaotic nature.
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3.1
u = 2 y
du
dy = 2
v = 1 x
dv
dx = 1
1
1 dv
du
( 1 + 2 ) = (
)
2
2 dx dy
The vorticity is defined as twice the average angular velocity therefore vorticity()
is
dv
du
dx dy
10
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12
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Conclusion
The subject of weather and differential equations both partial and ordinary are
contained throughout many works of literature. To condense any of these books
into an essay would be a feat unimaginable, therefore reading materials in this
subject may provide more understanding and background than the condensed
version presented here. Particularly, An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology
was an invaluable resource for this project and is actually a text book used in
Iowa state and the University of Kansas. If a greater understanding of meteorology was desired, this book would be highly recommended.
There were many partial differential equations that were used to predict the
weather on a short time scale but because this essay is based on ordinary differential equations, the partial differential equations were not discussed. Overall,
because of the nature of the weather, the numerous factors that come into play,
and its predictability to be unpredictable it is very difficult to predict weather
over long periods of time. In the future there may be better methods to where
predictions could be made months ahead of time.
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References
[1] Ordinary Diferential Equations Chaos. astro.uk.
http://www.astro.ku.dk/comp-phys/Notes/10.pdf
Apr
2009
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