Greek Market Watch

IBG Research - email: Research@ibg.gr

Opening Comment
Amid enough nervousness ahead of the crucial Eurogroup, the majority of Greek equities ended in
negative territory on Friday. Specifically, the General Index edged lower by 0.3%, with the trading
volume remaining at the high level of EUR 212m. Banks were mixed, with NBG (+6.7%) and Alpha Bank
(+1.4%) posting gains and Eurobank (-6.3%) and Piraeus Bank (-2.2%) recording losses. Beyond banks,
retailers Jumbo (-4.3%) and Folli Follie (-4.0%) were among the main laggards. On the flip side, OTE
(+3.5%) and Ellaktor (+2.2%) were among the main winners. Although the extension of the bail-out for
four months, provided it will be concluded, offers a relief for the country, the challenges of the
implementation of the deal could retain uncertainty over the next few months.

Tuesday, 24 February 2015

General Index
900

300m
250m

880

200m
860
150m
840

100m

820

50m

13 Feb

16 Feb

18 Feb

19 Feb

20 Feb

Intraday
875
865
855

Political Headlines

845

Following the announcement of the deal at the Eurogroup, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras highlighted the
"important success" of Greece's negotiations and what he called "the end of austerity and the
bailout" but added that difficult negotiations lie ahead. In his words, "we won a battle, but not the
war. The difficulties lie ahead of us".
Prominent Syriza member and EU Parliament MP Mr. Manolis Glezos prompted the PM to
immediately do away with all the Memorandum derived measures, thus restoring our National
Sovereignty, expressing this way his opposition to the deal. Following Mr. Glezos announcement a
number of Syriza MPs and party members have expressed their opposition and scepticism over the
deal and governments U turn.

835

ATHEX Selective Indices

Closing

Daily

Wtd

Ytd

ATHEX General

854.2

-0.27%

-4.46%

3.39%

FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap

253.7

-0.16%

-6.48%

-4.23%

FTSE/ATHEX Mid Cap

884.3

-0.41%

-1.13%

14.40%

792.7

0.75%

-7.06%

-17.58%

FTSE/ATHEX Banks

ATHEX Valuation

Macro Headlines
Fridays Eurogroup reached a provisional agreement over Greeces request to extend the deadline
of the current bail-out for 4 months, in return of commitments vis--vis continued structural and
economic reforms. Accordingly, the government was committed to send a list of reforms to be
approved by Eurogroup by yesterday night.
Press reports indicate that the government will send its proposals to the Eurogroup by this
morning, following several hours of discussions with EU officials yesterday that aimed in setting
measures acceptable from both sides. Accordingly, a conference call will be called this afternoon
among Eurozone Finance Ministers which are set to approve Greeces proposals.
Reportedly (Bloomberg), the German MoF Wolfgang Schaeuble has requests the Bundestag to
approve Greeces request for a 4-month extension of the bail-out program. Accordingly, the request
is subject to Greece submitting a list of reforms and an assessment by the troika (institutions) that
will offer a starting point for the successful completion of the program.
In an interview with HuffPost Live, IMFs MD Christine Lagarde referring to Greece said that the
first objective is to maintain stability, adding that I very much hope that during the course of
these 4 months there can be a meeting of the minds between the Greek authorities and its EU
partners. Importantly, she said that on whether Greece might leave the euro this is not in the
cards and is not being discussed.
According to BoG data, Greeces current account balance in 2014 registered a EUR 1.66bn surplus,
compared to surplus of EUR 1.1bn in 2013 and a deficit of EUR 4.6bn in 2012. In December, the
current account balance showed a deficit of EUR 870m compared to a deficit of EUR 244m in the
same month last year.
According to Kathimerini, the government has opted to utilize general government entities
disposable cash reserves, in order to cover countrys cash obligations until early March, however
mid-March will pose a bigger problem with no obvious solutions to cover the projected financing
gap. Greeces payment obligations in March (excluding wages, pensions and social security) amount
to around EUR 7bn, of which EUR 1.6bn correspond to IMF loans, EUR 4.6bn to T-bills and EUR
800m to interest and other payments.

17 Feb

ATHEX General Index FTSE ATHEX Large Cap

14e

15e

14e

15e

P/E

9.3

11.0

9.4

11.2

EV/EBITDA

8.1

6.6

8.2

6.6

P/BV

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.1

1.4%

1.7%

1.5%

1.7%

Div. Yield

ATHEX Statistics & Bond spread

Market Cap bn

50.3

10-Y bond yield

Turnover m

212.0

spread (bps)

Avg. turnover YtD m

127.4

9.297
893

FTSE LargeCap
TOP 3 Performers

BOTTOM 3 Performers

National Bank of Greece 6.7%

Eurobank Ergasias

-6.3%

Piraeus Port

4.2%

Jumbo

-4.3%

OTE

3.5%

Folli Follie Group

-4.0%

Upcoming Events
FY:14 RESULTS RELEASE: 24/02/15: Fourlis, 26/02/15:
OTE, Hellenic Petroleum, 05/03/15: Titan Cement,
11/03/15: Eurobank Ergasias, 12/03/15: Frigoglass,
16/03/15: Hellenic Exchanges, 18/03/15: Mytilineos,
Metka, Sarantis, 30/03/15: OPAP, EYDAP
MACROS: 27/02/15: ELSTAT to release Q4:14 GDP
(provisional data), January's PPI & December's Turnover
Index in Retail Trade

Company Headlines
Reportedly (euro2day), ECBs Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) did not approve the candidacy of
Mr Michelis as NBGs new CEO. Recall that as per former press reports the government was
intending to replace NBGs Chairman and CEO with Mrs Katseli and Mr Michelis respectively.
Accordingly, the SSM gave the green light for Mrs Katseli but failed to approve Mr Michelis.
Fourlis will release its 4Q 2014 results today post market close. We expect revenues of EUR 110m (4.1% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 11.0m (-2% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 3.3m vs. EUR 0.5m 4Q13.
According to euro2day, OTE SA will hire the employees of its wholly subsidiary OTEPlus as provided
in the collective labour agreement signed last December. In particular, 2,100 OTE Plus employees
will be transferred to the parent company.
OPAP will release its 4Q14 results on March 30th 2015, post market close.

Please continue overleaf

All ESN research is available
on Bloomberg: ESNR <go>
For important disclosures refer to last pages

Macroeconomic News

Eurogroup reaches an agreement over Greek Request (Positive)

The Facts: Fridays Eurogroup reached a provision agreement over Greeces request to extend the deadline of the current bail-out for 4 months, in
return of commitments vis--vis continued structural and economic reforms. Accordingly, the government was committed to send a list of reforms to
be approved by Eurogroup by yesterday night. On the same issue, press reports indicate that the government will send its proposals to the Eurogroup
by this morning, following several hours of discussions with EU officials yesterday that aimed in setting measures acceptable from both sides.
Accordingly, a conference call will be called this afternoon among Eurozone Finance Ministers which are set to approve Greeces proposals.
Our Analysis: As far as the deal is concerned, the official Eurogroup statement read, the Greek authorities will present a first list of reform measures,
based on the current arrangement, by the end of Monday, February 23. The institutions will provide a first view whether this is sufficiently
comprehensive to be a valid starting point for a successful conclusion of the review. This list will be further specified and then agreed with the
institutions by the end of April. On top of that the statement said that only approval of the conclusion of the review of the extended arrangement by
the institutions in turn will allow for any disbursement of the outstanding tranche of the current EFSF program and the transfer of the 2014 SMP
profits. Also and as part of the agreement, the government has committed not to implementing any measures that would affect fiscal targets, without
first reaching an agreement with the troika (ie taking unilateral actions). As for the measures suggested form the government, press reports indicate
that this will not include a cost-benefit analysis but will rather indicate the proposed policies and governments priorities. As far as actions which might
be deemed unilateral (NPL management, pensions, labour market reform and others) press reports indicate that these will not be included in the set of
suggested measures or if included will be excluded from the final deal. All in all, we view the agreement as a positive development and a step to the
right direction but highlight that more needs to be done. In any case, short-term risks have been lifted.
Konstantinos Manolopoulos kmanolopoulos@ibg.gr +30 210 81 73 388

Current Account Balance Jan-Dec 2014

The Facts: According to BoG data, Greeces current account balance in 2014 registered a EUR 1.66bn surplus, compared to surplus of EUR 1.1bn in
2013 and a deficit of EUR 4.6bn in 2012. In December, the current account balance showed a deficit of EUR 870m compared to a deficit of EUR 244m
in the same month last year.
Our Analysis: The surplus of the current account balance in the 12-month
January-December
EUR m
period was driven from improvements in the services and income accounts,
2012
2013
2014
more than offsetting an increase in trade deficit and significantly lower
current transfers surplus. In more detail, the trade deficit in the 12-month
Current Account Balance
-4,615
1,088.5
1,657
period increased by c.4% YoY to EUR 18bn mainly due to higher net payments
for purchase of ships by around EUR 700m. Receipts from exports of goods
YoY Change
52.2%
(excluding oil and ships) were up by 4.8% YoY at EUR 14.8bn, while at the
Trade Balance
-19,619
-17,229
-17,976
same time imports (excluding oil and ships) increased by c.4% YoY to EUR
YoY Change
-12.2%
4.3%
23bn. In terms of services, the positive balance widened by c.EUR 2.8bn to
Exports
22,021
22,535
23,647
EUR 19.8bn on higher receipts, supported by strong tourism. Finally, the
YoY Change
2.3%
4.9%
deficit in the income account narrowed by EUR 233m to EUR 2.9bn, while the
Imports
41,640
39,764
41,624
current transfers balance showed a surplus of EUR 2.7bn from EUR 4.5bn in
YoY Change
-4.5%
4.7%
the same period last year.
Services Balance
15,139
16,979
19,796
With respect to December, despite the narrowing of net oil bill by c.EUR
Income Balance
-1,566
-3,127
-2,894
330m
as a result of a steep decline of the oil price, the large increase of the
Current Transfers Bal.
1,431.5
4,466
2,731
current account deficit was mainly driven by the current transfer balance
which recorded a deficit of EUR 91m from EUR 597m surplus last year due to a decline in general government net current receipts from the EU.
Vassilis Roumantzis vroumantzis@ibg.gr +30 210 81 73 394

Please continue overleaf

Corporate News & Comments

Fourlis: Release of 4Q14 results today, after market close (Neutral)

The Facts: Fourlis will release its 4Q 2014 results today post market close. We expect revenues of EUR 110m (4.1% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 11.0m (-2% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 3.3m vs. EUR 0.5m 4Q13. On a full year,
Fourlis is expected to report revenues of EUR 405.5m (+0.6% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 25.2m (-0.7% y-o-y) and net
losses of EUR 6.7m from losses of EUR 8.3m in FY13. On a comparable basis (excluding one-off items), FY14
EBITDA is seen at EUR 25.7m (+1% y-o-y) and net losses at EUR 0.9m (vs. EUR 7.0m losses in FY13).
Our Analysis: The volatile political environment in Greece which has negatively impacted Decembers retail sales
(-10% y-o-y according to market estimates), will weigh on the performance of Fourlis Group in 4Q14. We
forecast flattish sales for the home furnishing division as the good picture in October-November was offset by a weak Christmas period. We look for
sales of EUR 79m (+0.3% y-o-y) in 4Q14, while on a full year basis, IKEAs revenues are seen shaping at EUR 267m (+0.3% y-o-y), assuming flattish
revenues for IKEA Greece, while the positive performance of IKEA Bulgaria has offset the weakness in IKEA Cyprus. Intersports sales are seen growing
by 2% y-o-y in 4Q14 to EUR 29.6m, due to the weak performance of the Greek business, while Turkey and Romania have maintained their growing
momentum. For FY14, we forecast revenues of EUR 121m, up by 9% y-o-y. The divestment from the wholesale activity will be evident in groups top
line, while New Look (-10% y-o-y) will remain weak for another quarter. On the profitability front, we expect a small improvement in groups EBITDA
margin (+20bps y-o-y) in 4Q14 on the back of an better gross margin in IKEA that will mitigate the termination of InterIKEAs support on marketing
expenses, as well as a 150bps y-o-y margin enhancement in Intersport.
Conclusion & Action: All in all, we expect a mediocre performance in 4Q14 driven by a weak Christmas period in Greece due to a volatile political
environment. We should highlight that groups EBITDA has remained broadly flat in 2014, despite the reduction of InterIKEAs support by some EUR
8.0m compared to the previous year, as a result of better gross margin in IKEA and better profitability for Intersport. Tomorrow, the company will
present its annual financial results to the Greek Institutional Investors Association at 09:30 Athens time, while it will hold a conference call tomorrow
at 17:00 Athens time (15:00 UK time).
Price
Market Cap.
P/E (14e)
P/E (15e)
EV/EBITDA (14e)
EV/EBITDA (15e)

3.36
171.3m
n/a
63.4
11.9
9.7

Dimitris Birbos dbirbos@ibg.gr +30 210 81 73 392

Recommendation system
The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and
capital reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon.
The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy, Accumulate (or Add), Hold, Reduce and Sell (in short: B, A, H, R, S).
Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained
below.
Meaning of each recommendation or rating:

Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 20% during the next 12 months time horizon

Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 10% to 20% during the next 12 months time horizon

Hold: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to 10% during the next 12 months time horizon.

Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to -10% during the next 12 months time horizon

Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -10% during the next 12 months time horizon

Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, ) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related
party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst covering the stock

Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer

History of ESN Recommendation System

Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System (before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage.
Since 4 August 2008, the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follow.
Time horizon changed to 12 months (it was 6 months)
Recommendations Total Return Range changed as below:
TODAY
SELL

REDUCE

-10%

HOLD

0%

ACCUMULATE

10%

BUY

20%

BEFORE
SELL

REDUCE

-15%

HOLD

0%

ACCUMULATE

5%

BUY

15%

Disclosure Appendix
IBG RESEARCH INVESTMENT BANK OF GREECE, 32 Aegialias str. & Paradissou, 151 25, Maroussi, Greece, Tel: +30-210-81.73.000, E-mail: Research@ibg.gr
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Investment Bank of Greece, which is regulated by the Bank of Greece (License No: 52/2/17.12.99) and by
the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. Investment Bank of Greece has not entered any agreement with the subject companies for the execution of this analysis.
This report is for informative purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security.
While the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be
relied upon as such. In producing its research reports, members of Investment Bank of Greece research department may have received assistance from the subject
company(ies) referred to in this report. Any such assistance may have included access to sites of the issuers, visits to certain operations of the subject company(ies),
meetings with management, employees or other parties associated with the subject company(ies) and the handing by them of historical data regarding the subject
company(ies) (financial statements and other financial data), as well as of all publicly available information regarding strategy and financial targets. Investment Bank of
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buy and sell securities referred herein. Although Investment Bank of Greece does not set a predetermined frequency for publication, if this is a fundamental research
report, it is the intention of Investment Bank of Greece to provide research coverage of the subject company(ies), including in response to news affecting this issuer,
subject to applicable quiet periods and capacity constraints. Investment Bank of Greece may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or
solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. Investment Bank of Greece does and seeks to do business with companies
covered in their research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firms may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Securities referred to in this research report are subject to investment risks,
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According to Investment Bank of Greece policies, the Analysis Department of Investment Bank of Greece is bound by confidentiality, with the exception of data allowed
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Report INVESTMENT BANK OF GREECE, 2015. All rights reserved.

Analysts Certification
For each company mentioned in this compilation report, the respective analyst who covers the company certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately
reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. The analysts also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report.

Important Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Company

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by INVESTMENT BANK of GREECE, which is member of the Athens Exchange S.A. and regulated by the Bank of
Greece (License No: 52/2/17.12.99) and by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission.
The compensation of the research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report may depend on various
factors such as quality of work, stock picking, client feedback and overall firm profitability.

Stock Ratings
You should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in the research report. Moreover, you should carefully read the entire research report to obtain a clear view of
the analysts opinions and not infer its contents from the rating alone.

IBG Research Rating Distribution

Data current as of 20/02/2015
Buy

Accumulate

Hold

Reduce

Sell

IBG Research Total Coverage

52%

14%

33%

0%

0%

% of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Note that we have suspended our rating on 1 company

Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies

1. As of the date mentioned on the first page of this report, Investment Bank of Greece (or any of its affiliated companies) owns 5% or more of a class of common equity
securities in the following companies mentioned in this report: None
2. Investment Bank of Greece acts as a market maker for the following securities of the subject companies mentioned in this report: Alpha Bank, EFG Eurobank, Ellaktor,
GEK TERNA, Hellenic Exchanges, Intralot, Mytilineos, National Bank of Greece, OPAP, OTE, Piraeus Bank, PPC
3. Within the last 12 months, Investment Bank of Greece has provided advisory services to the following companies mention in this report: None
4. Within the last 12 months, Investment Bank of Greece had a contractual relationship or have received compensation for financial advisory services from the following
subject companies mentioned in this report: None

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3. Our research reports are available upon request at www.ibg.gr, on Bloombergs IBGR and ESNR functions and on Thomson Reuters website.
4. Additional information is available upon request.

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Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP)

Banca Akros S.p.A.

Viale Eginardo, 29
20149 MILANO
Italy
Phone: +39 02 43 444 389
Fax: +39 02 43 444 302

Equinet Bank AG
Grfstrae 97
60487 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Phone:+49 69 58997 410
Fax:+49 69 58997 299

Bank Degroof
Rue de IIndustrie 44
1040 Brussels
Belgium
Phone: +32 2 287 91 16
Fax: +32 2 231 09 04

Investment Bank of Greece

32 Aigialeias str. & Paradissou
151 25 Maroussi
Greece
Phone: +30 210 81 73 000

BEKA Finance
Serrano, 39
28001 Madrid
Spain
Phone: +34 91 436 7813
Fax: +34 91 577 3770

Pohjola Bank plc

P.O.Box 308
FI- 00013 Pohjola
Finland
Phone: +358 10 252 011
Fax: +358 10 252 2703

Caixa-Banco de Investimento
Rua Barata Salgueiro, n 33
1269-057 Lisboa
Portugal
Phone: +351 21 313 73 00
Fax: +351 21 389 68 98

CM - CIC Securities
6, avenue de Provence
75441 Paris
Cedex 09
France
Phone: +33 1 4596 7940
Fax: +33 1 4596 7748

SNS Securities N.V.

Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162
P.O.Box 235
1000 AE Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Phone: +31 20 550 8500
Fax: +31 20 626 8064