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INTRODUCTION
The Mekong countries have a complex, but interesting, mosaic
of demographic attributes and trends. The population of the
Mekong regionwhole of Yunnan Province of China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnamis nearly 300
million, and over 70 million people live in the Mekong River
Basin (1). The Mekong Basin possesses the regions largest
potential water source and related resources. These resources
are fundamental to ongoing economic development in terms of
irrigation and agricultural production, fisheries and aquaculture, energy and forest products, navigation and other modes of
transport, domestic and industrial water supply, and tourism
(2). Levels of dependency on the rivers water and related
resources are very high, particularly among the rural poor, who
rely on subsistence livelihoods and moral economy (3).
Recent socioeconomic development has begun to slow
population growth rates in China, Thailand, and Myanmar,
while Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam are expected to experience
further positive growth well beyond 2050 (4). It is also true that
the population growth rates vary considerably across the
Mekong River Basin, within and between the basin countries
(2). For example, Yunnan population density has doubled since
the 1950s, reaching the current level of 103 people km2, but in
the Lancang/Mekong part, the population density is only 62
people km2 due to the rugged and inhospitable landform (5).
On the other hand, Yunnan population growth rate has
declined slower than other parts of China (present level of
1.3% y1 compared to less than 0.7% annually for all of China)
(5).
Accordingly, the overall Mekong populations are projected
to increase well beyond 2050. The population growth and
expected demographic changes in these countries create both
opportunities and challenges.
Ambio Vol. 37, No. 3, May 2008
Population size and its composition have significant implications for pressures on natural resources. Growing populations
require more or different food, which typically requires land
and water or other forms of production (6). This paper
examines population growth and its likely impacts on food
demand and land and water resources in the Mekong River
Basin in a systematic and integrated manner. As a first step, we
present a clear overview of demographic trends in the Mekong
River Basin. Next, we conduct a comprehensive analysis to
explore the complex relationship between demographic change
and impacts on the natural-resource base in the Mekong River
Basin.
219
220
productivity levels (16). For this study, the year 2000 yield was
assumed to grow at the rate observed between 1987 and 1997.
Figure 3 shows the increase in the crop-area demand in the
whole Mekong River Basin projected by this study as compared
against the 2000 observed paddy area data in the Mekong parts
of Yunnan, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam (16, 17).
In a moderate scenario (A), the harvested area demand is likely
to increase to 9 million ha (i.e., an increase of 2 million ha from
2000 values). Similar trends are found at each individual
Mekong River Basin country level. If we compare crop
production area demand with the 2000 paddy areas (roughly
7 424 000 ha or 11 597 000 ha, if double- and triple-cropping
areas are counted), the projected paddy crop-area demand
would exceed existing paddy crop areas by 2020 or 2045,
respectively (16, 17). Given these findings, crop-area expansion
appears to be inevitable in the Mekong River Basin. This leads
to the question about whether there is any more room for this
expansion. This is discussed next.
221
Table 1. Summary of Agricultural Potential and Constraints of the Mekong River Basin.
Basin area
Areas for
upland agriculture
Area
used (%)
Area suitable
for irrigation (ha)
Area
used (%)
Irrigation
ratio
Cambodia
2 941 300
11 242 700
31
7%10%
Laos
3 051 400
25
2 317 100
35
7%10%
Vietnam Highlands
Vietnam Delta
1 131 300
10 100
51
68
360 900
3 256 200
36
88*
12%
60%
Thai NE
3 600 500
75
12 156 600
95
12%
n.a.
n.a.
Yunnan
233 333
n.a.
566 366
Constraints
Management and low inputs;
poor access to market and high loss;
landmine and small landholding; and
low irrigation efficiency.
Poor access to market; high operation
cost and low return; and low
irrigation efficiency.
Water shortage, salinity, acid sulfate soil;
low irrigation efficiency; and high
postharvest losses.
High labor cost; low-quality soil; salinity;
and low irrigation efficiency.
Flat and gentle slope area is about 6%,
and irrigation potential is marginal;
41.8 is high slope greater than 258;
and high erosion.
* Around 300 000 ha grow three crops of rice each year; 1 080 000 ha are double cropped (source: 16). Pasture land. z Farmland: 93% for single-rice cropping and 3% for double-rice cropping.
high levels of degradation, remoteness, poor soil quality, landtenure issues, lack of access to water, and competition with
forestry, human settlements, industrial uses, and infrastructure
development, as shown in Table 1 (16, 19).
Vietnam and Thailand use their arable land in the Mekong
River Basin almost to its full extent for producing paddy rice
and other crops for both domestic consumption and export (16,
17). To meet growing needs beyond 2015, Cambodia and Laos
will have to increase the paddy production or develop an
alternative food-security strategy with clear actions and
appropriate mechanisms for implementing it. While these
countries still have potential for paddy area expansion, they
need substantial investment in irrigation systems, transport
infrastructure, and market access (15).
Table 2. Paddy area of 2000 and percentage of assumed increase (in thousands of ha), crop irrigation lifetime, and cropping calendar.
Dry season, 3.5 mo, FebMay
Basin country
2000
2040
2000
2040
Cambodia
Vietnam Delta
Thailand
Laos
55 150%
137.5
200 150%
500
155.9 * 10%
131.8 * 250%
171.5
461.3
0
0
0
0
2000
2040
2000
2040
1500
0
0
1879
0
0
1237
0
0
1581
0
0
222
Activity
Lowland rice
Upland crops
Fruit trees
Coffee
Recession rice
2074
1555
1037
1100
1037
3.5
4
4
4
3
7258
6221
4147
4400
3110
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
223
224
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