Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Wenwen
Xi
Diego
Ivan
Barros
Marc
Mataix
Sanjuan
Noise
makes
it
very
difficult
to
test
either
practical
or
academic
theories
about
the
way
that
financial
or
economic
markets
work.
We
are
forced
to
act
largely
in
the
dark.
with
the
evaluation
of
the
impact
of
efficient
markets
theory
and
behavioral
finance
made
by
Robert
J.Shiller.
Professor
Black
is
a
heavy
supporter
of
the
efficient
markets
theory.
This
theory
states
that
price
in
the
stock
market
is
set
as
a
function
of
the
information
related
with
its
true
value.
Noise
is
defined
as
the
irrelevant
information
that
some
investors
include
as
relevant
but
is
unrelated
with
the
true
value
of
a
given
asset.
Hence,
trading
this
type
of
information
creates
inefficiencies
in
the
market.
If
there
was
no
noise
in
the
market,
the
market
will
not
exist.
That
is
because
if
everyone
has
the
same
information,
the
will
not
be
double
coincidence
of
wants.
Noise
crates
high
volatility
in
prices
and
because
of
that,
Proferssor
Black
states
that
Noise
makes
it
very
difficult
to
test
either
practical
or
academic
theories
about
the
way
that
financial
or
economic
markets
work.
We
are
forced
to
act
largely
in
the
dark.
Traditional
finance
ignores
the
research
for
investors
actual
decision-making
behavior.
The
rise
of
behavioral
finance
theory
break
the
fundamental
assumption
of
traditional
finance
theory,
based
on
a
psychology
research,
proceeding
from
actual
decision-making
psychology
of
real
investors.
With
the
development
of
behavioral
finance,
behavioral
economists
and
experimental
economists
have
proposed
numerous
paradoxes.
The
traditional
"rational
man"
assumption
has
been
unable
to
explain
the
reality
of
economic
life
and
behavior.
It
is
consistence
with
the
evidences
to
assume
the
general
public
to
behaves
totally
rational.
Many
investors
often
make
trading
decisions
based
on
"noise"
rather
than
the
relevant
information.
They
are
easily
effected
by
suggestion
from
financial
experts
suggest
and
will
not
divert
investment,
often
traded
with
self-righteousness
and
transformed
the
portfolio
in
the
hands
frequently.
It
is
not
as
efficient
market
theory
finds
that,
public
trading
passively
as
they
lack
information.
Behavioral
finance
believes
that
when
arbitrageurs
trade,
they
are
not
only
facing
the
risks
of
changes
in
underlying
factors,
but
also
the
noise
trading
risk.
There
are
two
theoretical
basis
of
behavioral
finance:
one
is
limited
arbitrage,
the
second
is
investor
psychology
analysis.
From
the
first
premise,
traditional
finance
believes
that
arbitrage
plays
a
key
role
in
achieving
market
efficiency.
Even
the
irrationality
of
investors
exists
and
stock
prices
deviate
from
the
basic
value,
there
are
still
rational
arbitrageurs,
which
eliminates
the
former
influence
on
prices.
However,
behavioral
finance
believes
that,
the
perfect
arbitrage
is
actually
quite
limited
due
to
the
fact
that
the
noise
trader
risks,
etc.
It
weakened
its
influence
on
market
efficiency.
Viewed
from
the
theory
of
the
second
base,
although
limited
arbitrage
explains
why
market
is
inefficient
with
the
interference
of
noise
trader,
it
cannot
tell
us
what
specific
form
is
taken
by
this
inefficiency.
Due
to
this,
we
need
the
establishment
the
second
theory.
There
are
two
major
reactions
in
the
market,
which
are
overreaction
and
under
reaction.
In
response
to
these
two
reactions,
experts
of
behavioral
finance
proposed
some
models
of
investors
behavior
based
on
psychology.
According
to
the
behavioral
theorists,
we
are
not
longer
assuming
that
we
act
to
dark
but
rather
to
continue
investigate
investors,
not
assets,
to
turn
the
dark
into
bright
color.
The
volatility
of
the
market
can
be
explained
by
the
weighted
average
of
the
individual
volatilities
plus
the
relationship
among
them.
That
is,
the
weighted
average
of
the
volatilities
plus
the
covariance
between
the
stocks.
2.Calculate
the
coefficient
beta
of
stock
3
using
covariances.
Explain
the
meaning
of
coefficient
beta
and
its
significance
in
financial
markets.
Which
is
the
correlation
coefficient
between
stock
3
and
the
market
portfolio?
What
does
it
mean?
Finally,
relate
3
to
M.
The
beta
of
the
security
3
is
2.18.
That
is,
when
the
market
changes
1
basic
point,
the
security
changes
2.18
basic
points.
The
correlation
between
the
stock
and
the
market
is
0.049504618.
This
means
that
the
stock
is
has
a
very
light
positive
dependence
with
the
market.
Hence,
when
beta
m,
which
is
nothing
else
than
the
market
variance,
changes
the
stock
reacts
in
the
same
way
2.18
times.
3.Why
does
stock
3
promises
an
expected
return
of
25%?
Calculate
the
risk
for
which
the
expected
return
on
stock
3
offers
a
risk
premium.
In
case
that
this
risk
premium
does
not
compensate
for
total
risk,
explain
why.
We
can
calculate
the
require
return
of
the
stock
that
is
part
of
M
using
the
Security
Market
Line:
= + = +
0.25 = 0.05 + 0.141415 0.05 2.187820434
If
we
assume
that
there
is
no
diversification,
we
can
calculate
the
required
rate
of
return
using
the
Capital
Market
Line.
That
is:
0.141415 0.05
0,25 = 0.05 +
= 0,3038124
0.118279
For
the
same
level
of
return
of
25%,
we
can
obtain
a
risk
of
30%
in
the
Capital
Market
Line.
The
stock
has
a
risk
50%
that
means
that
the
risk
premium
is
20%.
That
is
because
in
the
Capital
Market
Line
we
assume
perfect
diversification
and
hence,
the
specific
risk
of
the
particular
stock
is
eliminated.
4.
Break
down
the
risk
of
stock
3
justifying
the
relationship
among
the
different
types
of
risk
associated
to
it.
We
can
break
down
the
risk
as
follows:
The
total
risk
is
equal
to
the
systematic
risk
plus
the
specific
risk.
Everything
has
to
be
squared.
That
is:
(! )! = (! ! )! + (()!
In
the
case
of
the
stock
3,
that
is:
0,5! = (2.19 0.118270)! +
= 0.4276834653
This
means
that
this
stock
has
a
risk
of
6,7%
due
to
the
intrinsic
risk
of
the
market
where
it
is
trade
and
a
risk
of
42%
associated
with
the
specific
value
of
stock
3.
5.
Mr.
Pepet
Canons
decides
to
invest
10.000
assuming
a
total
risk
of
50%.
Design
an
efficient
investment
for
him
on
the
Kahlersburg
stock
exchange
that
copes
with
his
preference.
Calculate
the
expected
rate
of
return
his
investment
portfolio,
its
composition
and
the
amount
of
Euros
that
Mr.Canons
invests
in
stock
3
efficiently.
If
we
assume
that
the
CAPM
theory
holds,
we
will
use
the
Capital
Market
Line
to
asses
the
return
of
the
investment
of
Mt
Canons
because
the
CAPM
theory
states
that
M
is
the
optimal
portfolio
to
invest
to.
That
is,
0.141415 0.05
() = 0.05 +
0,5 = 0,4364379983
0.118279
The
return
of
the
investment
of
Mr
Canons
will
be
44%.
Continuing
with
the
CAPM
we
will
invest
a
proportion
X
in
portfolio
M
that
has
a
return
associated
and
a
proportion
(1-x)
in
the
risk
free
asset
with
its
return.
That
is:
! = ! + (1 )
0,436437 = 0,141415 + 0.05 1
= 4.2272
That
is,
Mr
Canons
will
invest
422,72%
of
his
budget
or
42272,82
in
M
and
will
borrow
322,72%
from
the
risk
free
asset
or
32272,82.
If
the
proportion
of
the
stock
3
in
the
market
is
19.72%,
Mr
canons
will
invest
0,1972*42272,82
in
3.
That
is
a
total
of
8336,20.
6.
Finally,
explain
why
stock
4
yields
less
than
the
risk-free
asset
despite
bearing
a
total
risk
of
50%?
Is
it
true
that
its
contribution
to M
is
negative?
What
does
this
imply
in
terms
of
risk
reduction
through
diversification?
Stock
4
has
a
negative
correlation
with
all
the
other
assets
in
the
market.
Because
of
that,
the
return
is
very
low
even
though
the
risk
is
50%.
Yes,
it
is
true
that
the
contribution
to
the
risk
of
the
market
is
negative.
We
can
see
that
calculating
the
systematic
risk:
= (! ! )!
(0.218782 0,118279). = 0.02588
This
implies
that
including
this
stock
even
if
it
has
a
very
low
return
and
high
risk,
since
the
correlation
coefficient
is
negative
with
all
the
stocks,
not
only
it
add
less
that
the
weighted
average
risk
but
subtracts
risk
to
the
market
portfolio.