Beating the House: Roulette

Cameron Leslie
King Williams College
001345-0046

Introduction
No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the
table while the croupier isnt looking, is a quote by Albert Einstein that
accurately reflects most opinions on roulette. Roulette is a casino
game, which most people believe is impossible to get an edge on. The
house edge is the percentage chance that the house or casino will beat
a player. There are methods to get an advantage over the casino
though, such as relying on a biased wheel or using a computer to track
the ball. One suggested method to beat roulette is by spreading bets
properly.
Through this investigation, I want to see whether the methods that
can be used to beat Roulette are possible. I chose this topic as I find it
interesting and I am curious as to how you can beat a game, which is
known by most professional gamblers for the fact that you cant get
an edge on it. I wanted to see the different ways mathematics could be
applied to beat the casino's roulette wheel.
My interest in casino games has always been there as I have family
friends who are professional black jack players who are able to beat
the house. My interest in roulette arose specifically after I saw a
video on online roulette, which contained a fool-proof way to beat
roulette. The method used is known as the Martingale Strategy and is
inefficient and ineffective. It would also require an enormous bankroll
to be effective. It wouldnt work in a real casino but it did get me

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curious as to whether it was possible to beat a game as unpredictable

as roulette.

Roulette
There are multiple types of Roulette, but for the sake of this
investigation, it will focus on French or single zero roulette. American
Roulette has an extra number, which is 00. 1 This gives an even greater
edge to the casino as opposed to the probability of winning being out
of 37 it is out of 38. This investigation will be using the French version
of roulette without the 00 number. European and French roulette have
the same amount of numbers but a different table layout. Figure 1
shows the layout of a French roulette table.2

The Game
In the game of Roulette, players choose to place their bets on either a
single number or a range of numbers, the colours red or black, or
whether a number is odd or even. To determine the winning number or

1 The Wizard of Odds. "Roulette." Last modified March 2, 2013.

wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/.
2 Shelley, Ron. "French Layout-Single Zero Wheel." Wikipedia. 1986.
Accessed March 9, 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:French_LayoutSingle_Zero_Wheel.jpg.

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colour, the croupier spins a wheel in one

direction and spins a ball in the opposite
direction

on

small

track

around

the

circumference of the wheel. When the ball

loses momentum, it falls into the wheel and
lands in one of 37 (38 in American roulette)
coloured and numbered pockets on the wheel.

Figure 1

The types of bets in Roulette are important to

understand, as each one gives the player a
different probability of winning. This is due to
different bets covering a different number of
squares. Different bets can also have different
payouts, which depend on the number of
squares being bet on. There are two types of
bets, an inside bet and an outside bet. An
inside bet has a lower probability of winning
and a larger payout.

Inside Bets

Straight
o A bet on a single number or square
Split
o A bet on two adjoining numbers (vertical or horizontal on
the betting table)
Street

3 The Wizard of Odds. "Roulette." Last modified March 2, 2013.

wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/.

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o A
Corner
o A
Six line
o A
Trio
o A
Basket
o A

bet on three numbers in a single horizontal line.

bet on 4 numbers in a square.
bet placed on two adjoining streets.
bet on 0, 1 and 2 or 0, 2 and 3.
bet on 0, 1, 2 and 3.

Outside Bets

Manque
o A bet on the numbers 1-18.
Passe
o A bet on the number 19-36.
Rouge ou Noir
o A bet on which colour the wheel will show (red or black)
Pair ou Impair
o A bet on either an even number or an odd number not

including zero.
Dozen Bets
o A bet on either the first, second or third group of twelve

numbers (1-12, 13-24, 25-36)

Column Bets
o A bet on twelve numbers of one of the three vertical lines.
(1-34, 2-35, 3-36)

All of these different bets payout differently. The formula for calculating
the payout that a bet will have is:
1
36
payout= ( 36n )= 1
n
n
Where n is the number of squares the player is betting on.
Type Of Bet
Straight
Split

Number
Squares
1
2

of Payo
ut
35
17

4 The Wizard of Odds. "Roulette." Last modified March 2, 2013.

wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/.

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Trio and Street

Basket and Corner
Six Line
Dozen and Column
Bets
Manque,
passe,
rouge ou noir and
pair ou impair
The payout is designed

3
4
6
12

11
8
5
2

18

in this way so that regardless of the number of

squares bet on, the casino will always get the same edge or expected
value.

The House Edge

The house edge or expected is the percentage of the bet that you will
lose on average in the long run. Calculating the expected value
requires knowledge of how much money that will either be won or lost,
the probability that the casino wins and the probability that the casino
loses. Due to the fact that the house edge is how much the casino will
win in the long run, it is not simply the probability that the casino will
beat you.5
The house edge can be calculated using expected value though, as the
house edge is a long-run average.
To find the expected value, let

P ( X=x ) be the probability of an event

happening. This means that to find the house edge we need to find the
mean of

P( X =x) . Assuming that a manque bet is made with 1, then

5 Play Roulette Online | Online Roulette Casino Reviews. "Roulette House

Edge | Online Roulette Games House Edge." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://www.roulettestar.com/house-edge.php.

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there are two events that could happen. There could be a gain of 1 by
the bettor or the loss of 1 by the bettor.
If we let x be either +1 or -1 (win or lose) then the respective

probabilities for

P( X =x)

are

18
37

or

19
. This can be more clearly
37

shown in the following probability distribution:

+1

-1

18
19
37
37
Considering that the expected value is the average of what will either
P( X =x)

be won or lost in the long run, the expected value would be equal to
the mean of

X .

The mean of

or the expected value of X can be found using the

formula:
i =n

E ( X )= xi P( X =xi )
i=1

This is the same as:

E ( X )=x 1 P ( X =x 1) + x 2 P ( X =x 2 )+ + x n P ( X =xn )
This formula6 is the sum of all of the
corresponding

P( X =x)

values multiplied by the

values.

6 Buckle, Nigel, Iain Dunbar, and Fabio Cirrito. Mathematics Higher Level

(Core): International Baccalaureate. [Victoria]: IBID Press, 2007(521-526).

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This would mean in terms of roulette and the above probability

distribution, the expected value can be calculated as follows:
E ( X )=1

18
19
+(1)
37
37

E ( X )=0. 027
This means that for that if you are betting on a manque bet you would
on average lose 2.7% of what your betting to the casino and would not
gain anything. This is the expected value and the house edge. Making
different bets, which have different payouts, has similar results. For
example if a 1 split bet is made, two squares are bet on. Using the
payout formula:
36
1=17
2
This means that that 1 bet would win a player 17. The probability of

that bet wining is

2
37

and the probability of that bet losing is

35
.
37

The probability distribution of this bet is:

x

+17

-1

P( X =x)

2
37

35
37

If the same formula for the mean of

E ( X )=17

as shown above, the result is:

2
35
+ (1 )
37
37

E ( X )=0. 027

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This demonstrates why the payout varies depending on the amount of

numbers that are bet on. It is so the expected value stays the same
regardless. This has the benefit of making it very hard to make the
house edge smaller. There are strategies though, which are supposed
to give the player a slight advantage.

Betting Methods
There are many betting methods, which are supposed to give the
player an advantage over the casino, but unfortunately most of them
are not successful. An example of this is the martingale strategy.
This is where a player makes a bet on a set of 18 numbers and doubles
their bet after a loss.7 This is an unfeasible method though as table
limits will prevent the amount of times that a bet can be doubled and
also there is a limit to the amount that players can afford. Also, if the
doubled bet wins, most of what is won is simply making up what was
lost. The profit will be only what the original bet would have won,
making it an inefficient method.
The James Bond method is a roulette strategy developed by writer Ian
Fleming. It involves spreading bets around to try and get an advantage
over the casino. It requires making three bets simultaneously; a pass,

7 Top Ten Las Vegas Tips, plus our How-to-Gamble guide. "Betting Systems -Gambling systems explained." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://vegasclick.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html.

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a six line and a straight bet.8 This strategy involves spreading your
bets so certain amounts are placed on each of these bets.
70% of the bet is placed on the passe and 5% of the bet is placed on
the zero for the straight bet. 25% of the bet is placed on the six line
bet. If the amount of money that a player has to bet is 200, 10
would go on the zero for the straight bet. 140 would be placed on the
passe and 50 is placed on the straight bet. If any of these bets won,
they would each have a different return. The returns are as follows:

Bet

Formula

Payout

Straight (10)

36
1 35
1
36
1 5
6
36
1 1
18

350

Payout Including
Losses
160

250

100

140

80

Six line (50)

Passe (140)

Although there is a small return 25 out of the 37 squares now have

bets on them. This means that the chance that the casino wins is now

reduced to

12
37

or 32.4%. The chance a player has of earning money

is 67.6%. The probability distribution of this method is shown as:

x

+350

+250

+140

-200

P( X =x)

1
37

6
37

18
37

12
37

8 How To Win In A Casino | Roulette Strategy at MyCasinoStrategy. "Roulette

James Bond Strategy." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://mycasinostrategy.com/roulette+james+bond+strategy/1/MlWgRWfIpSPM9O3I1KzcNWrcdOjMhOfMhKvYZe7gRKjU5OLU9OHUlKLgdaPId.

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The expected value or the mean of X can be found using the same
formula as shown on page 6 of this exploration. The result is:
E ( X )=350

1
6
18
12
+250 +140 +(200)
37
37
37
37

E ( X )=53. 243
E (X )

=0.26 621
200

This would mean on average if a player keeps making the same bets
with 200 spread as described in the method would win on average
26.6 pence for every pound that is be or 53 per 200 that is bet. This
is a large return for a game that is thought to be impossible to get an
edge on, which is why this is such a popular strategy. This result is
incorrect though, as it doesnt incorporate the fact that receiving return
from one of the bets means that what was bet on other numbers is
lost. This means that the true probability distribution table is as
follows:
x

+160

+130

+80

-200

P( X =x)

1
37

6
37

18
37

12
37

This means the actual expected value is:

E ( X )=160

1
6
18
12
+130 +80 +(200)
37
37
37
37

E ( X )=5.4 054
E( X)

=0. 027
200

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10

This means that on average for each of the 200 bets made, the return
will be a loss of 5.4054 in the long-term. In the long term the expected
value would still be in favour of the casino. Even though this appears to

method due to the fact that the number of squares the

be a good
bettor covers is more than the casino, it infact has the same expected
value as any other bet made on Roulette. This makes it a method of
betting, which would lead to loss in the long run.

A Generalisation
It can be proven that even with multiple bets, the result will always be
a loss through a generalisation of the formula.
Two bets are made that each cover n squares. Let these two bets be W1
and W2. As W1 and W2 are both bets, they will both be positive
numbers. W1 will cover n1 squares and W2 will cover n2 squares. The
bets cannot both win so the winning of one bet must lead to the loss of
the other. The information necessary to calculate the expected value is
demonstrated in the table below.
Bet

Formula

Payout

W1

36
1
n1

W1
36
1
n1

W2
36
1
n2

W2

36
1
n2

)
)

The probability of both bets losing would be

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Payout
including
Loss
W1
36
1 W 2
n1

Chance of
Winning

W2

n2
37

( 36n 1)W

n1
37

37(n1 +n2 )
.
37

11

The expected value can be calculated by using this information. Both

the generalised probability distribution table and the expected value
are shown below.
x

(
P(X x)

W1

W2

36
1 W 2
n1

36
1 W 1
n1

(W1+ W2)

n1
37

n2
37

37(n1 +n2 )
37

W
W

( 2

( 36n 1)W ) 37n +(W +W ) 37(37n + n )

36
n
E ( X )=( 1 ( n 1 )W ) +
37
1

E ( X )=(

E ( X )=(

E ( X )=

36W 1
n
36 W 2
n
37(n1 +n2 )
W 1W 2 ) 1 +(
W 2W 1) 2 +(W 1 +W 2 )
n1
37
n2
37
37

36W 1 W 1 n1 W 2 n1
36 W 2 W 2 n2 W 1 n2 (W 1 +W 2 )(37n1n 2)

)+(

)+
37
37
37
37
37
37
37

36 W 1 W 1 n1 W 2 n1 36 W 2 W 2 n2 W 1 n 2 37 W 1+W 1 n1 +W 2 n137W 2+ W 2 n2+ W 2 n2

+
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
E ( X )=

36 W 1 37 W 1 36 W 2 37 W 2

37
37
37
37

W
( 1+ W 2)
37
(
E X )=
As the wager is W1 and W2 together, to get the expected value per
pound, you must divide the expected value by (W1 + W2).

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12

W
( 1+W 2 )=

1
37

E( X)

( 1+W 2 )=0. 027

E(X)

This proves that the expected value will always be

0. 027

even with

spread bets.

Predicting the wheel

There are other ways to beat a roulette wheel. One method is to
establish if a wheel has any bias. This is a possible solution, but is not
worth trying.
Wheels with biases are very hard to find, as when an obvious bias is
revealed, the wheel is replaced so the casino can get back its edge. It
requires viewing a wheel hundreds of times and if it is established that
a bias exists, when someone wins consistently, a casino is likely to
investigate and change the wheel. Another method, which has been
proven to be successful, uses the initial position, velocity and
acceleration of the ball to ascertain the area that the ball will end up
in.9 The American institute of physics, has recently released a paper 10
9 The Free Library. "How to win at roulette." Last modified October 20, 2012.
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/How%20to%20win%20at%20roulette.a0305780128.

10 Full paper can be found at:

http://school.maths.uwa.edu.au/~small/pdf/Chaos22-6.pdf

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13

on this subject.11 The key behind the method shown in the paper is
separating the path of the ball into four stages. These stages are: when
the ball has a fast enough momentum that it remains in the rim of the
wheel, when the balls momentum drop enough that it leaves the rim of
the wheel, when the ball is rotating freely around the wheel but not in
the rim and when the ball starts to hit the deflectors. For an accurate
prediction, the angle of the wheel also needs to be included in the
calculation. One consideration that made calculations within this paper
easier though, is the fact that the only difference in every spin is the
time the ball spends in the rim. The velocity of the ball when it leaves
the rim will be the exact same in every case as the balls are all of the
same exact size and weight. This means that by finding the point at
which the ball leaves the rim is how the final location of the ball will be
found. Edward O. Thorpe has also released a paper on predicting the
outcome of roulette although it is not as detailed as the previous one.12

11 Small, Michael, and Chi Kong Tse. "Predicting the Outcome of

Roulette."Interdisciplinary 22 (2012): Accessed March 9, 2014.

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/chaos/22/3/10.1063/1.4753920.
12 Thorpe, Edward O. "The Invention of the First Wearable Computer."
Columbia University. Last modified January 20, 2003.
http://monet.cs.columbia.edu/courses/mobwear/resources/thorp-iswc98.pdf.

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14

Conclusion
Unlike in Internet roulette, which uses sophisticated random number
generators, it is very possible to predict the outcome of a physical
roulette wheel by using the velocity and initial position when the ball
leaves the rim of the wheel. It is not possible though, to beat Roulette
through spreading bets, even though it appears to be possible. The
expected value for French roulette will always be

, regardless
0. 027

of spreading bets or how many squares a better covers. A game, which

was considered unbeatable for so many years by mathematicians, is
now beatable due to computers, laser scanners and applying physics
to the model. Without the aid of computers though, the casino will
always beat a player in roulette.

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15

Bibliography
Buckle, Nigel, Iain Dunbar, and Fabio Cirrito. Mathematics Higher Level
(Core):
International Baccalaureate. [Victoria]: IBID Press, 2007(521-526).
How To Win In A Casino | Roulette Strategy at MyCasinoStrategy. "Roulette
James Bond Strategy." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://mycasinostrategy.com/roulette+james+bond+strategy/1/MlWgRWfIpSPM9O3I1KzcNWrcdOjMhOfMhKvYZe7gRKjU5OLU9OHUlKLgdaPId.
Play Roulette Online | Online Roulette Casino Reviews. "Roulette House Edge |
Online Roulette Games House Edge." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://www.roulettestar.com/house-edge.php.
Shelley, Ron. "French Layout-Single Zero Wheel." Wikipedia. 1986. Accessed
March 9, 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:French_LayoutSingle_Zero_Wheel.jpg.
Small, Michael, and Chi Kong Tse. "Predicting the Outcome of
Roulette."Interdisciplinary 22 (2012): Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/chaos/22/3/10.1063/1.4753920.
The Free Library. "How to win at roulette." Last modified October 20, 2012.
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/How%20to%20win%20at%20roulette.a0305780128.
The Wizard of Odds. "Roulette." Last modified March 2, 2013.
wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/.
Thorpe, Edward O. "The Invention of the First Wearable Computer." Columbia
University. Last modified January 20, 2003.
http://monet.cs.columbia.edu/courses/mobwear/resources/thorp-iswc98.pdf.
Top Ten Las Vegas Tips, plus our How-to-Gamble guide. "Betting Systems -Gambling systems explained." Accessed March 9, 2014.
http://vegasclick.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html.

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