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Equilibrium Exchanges
Author(s): Fischer Black
Source: Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 51, No. 3 (May - Jun., 1995), pp. 23-29
Published by: CFA Institute
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4479843 .
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Equilibrium Exchanges
FischerBlack
A frictionlessmarketfor exchangeswillfeaturean equilibrium
in whichtradersuse indexed
limit orders at differentlevelsof urgencybutdo not use marketordersor conventionallimit
orders.Buylimitorderswill matchsell limitordersat thecurrentprice.Limitorderentrywill
movepriceby an amountthatincreasesindefinitelyas urgencyincreases,so fasterexecution
meanshighereffectivecost. Dealerswill losemoney,so exchangeswill haveno specialistsor
marketmakers.Traderscansignalthattheyhaveno specialinformation
by using less-urgent
indexedlimitorders;theycannotdo betterby usingspecializedexchanges,sunshinetrading,
or baskettrading.
23
24
MARKET
ORDERS
A conventional market order can execute at a
single price (a single-pricemarket order) or at a
series of differentprices set by the limit orders on
the other side (an average-price
market order). A
news trader who uses a market order can trade
quickly to reduce the chance that others will trade
ahead of him on the same news, but the price
impact of his trade is a cost to him.
If a news trader uses a single-price market
order large enough to move the price by the full
value of his news, he expects no profit on the
LIMIT
ORDERS
Conventionallimit orders are awkward to use. If a
traderputs in a large limit order at a single price,
anyone who knows about his order can take advantage of him. For example, a large limit order to
buy at 40 invites someone to put in a small limit
order to buy just above 40. If this small order
executes and the price rebounds, that trader can
realize a substantialprofit. If the price continues to
fall, it will pause at 40, and he can close his position
with a small loss. In effect, a person who puts in a
large limit order at a single price gives away
valuable options to traders who know about it.
A limit order at a single price rapidlybecomes
outdated. In fact, because market conditions
change so fast, the limit price on an order is often
outdated before it reaches the market. To avoid
these problems, people sometimes scale their limit
orders, putting in a series of sell orders at increas-
25
26
EXCHANGES
An exchange has indexed limit orders at various
levels of urgency on both sides of the market.
Market depth depends on urgency and market
conditions, including conditions at other exchanges. In fact, entering an order on one exchange changes the price at all exchanges trading
the same security.
The market is shallower for more-urgent orders; market depth approaches zero as urgency
continues to rise. Thus, when new public information arrives in the market, a few small, urgent
orders move the price by almost the full value of
the information.
In setting the depth schedule, an exchange is
acting as a kind of Walrasianauctioneer.It balances
supply and demand for urgency, and more-urgent
orders cost more because they attractmore news
traders. At each level of urgency, the auctioneer
follows the size of the book of limit orders and the
price changes following entry of new orders. He
chooses the speed at which he matches orders so
that the book neither grows nor shrinks, on average. He chooses market depth so that the price
neither rises nor falls, on average, following entry
of a new order.
The exchange matches buy and sell limit orders continuously at the current price. On each
side of the market, the fractionalexecution rate is
higher for more-urgent orders;also, the execution
rate rises as orders build up on both sides of the
market. Because the exchange may have more
orders on one side of the marketthan on the other,
the actual fractional execution rates for orders of
given urgency may differbetween the two sides of
the market.
When a news trader puts in an order, he
moves the price by less than the full value of his
news. His profit depends on the amount he can
execute before his news becomes public and on
how fast other news traders arrive in the market
with the same information.
When a nice trader puts in an order, his
expected trading cost rises with urgency because
more-urgent orders move the price more and because they execute faster, which means the price
has less chance to revert toward its original level.
With fractional execution of limit orders, we
can end up with lots of very small orders. To avoid
this, an exchange can use a system by which small
orders do not participatein every trade. Fora small
order, the fractionalexpected execution rate represents the chance that the order executes in full
AN EXAMPLE
OF EQUILIBRIUM
Imagine that limit orders from news traders and
nice tradersarriveat the same rate. All orders from
nice traders have x shares, and news traders use
orders of x shares so they will look like nice
traders. Market depth is such that an order of x
shares moves the price by p. All news has value v.
News (or lack of news in an order from a nice
trader)becomes public at the continuous probability rate A. Orders execute at the continuous fractional rate ,u. All orders are equally urgent because
news traders want to look like nice tradersin this
respect.
A nice traderexpects the price to revert to its
originallevel at rate A. Thus, his expected cost per
share traded, c, is
c=
pelAtie-td +dt
Jo
+ u)
~~~(A
=f
(v
p)e-
At,e-
JLtdt =(v
27
Dears
Dealers have no role in this equilibrium.Traders do not use market orders. If they did use
market orders, limit orders would provide the
market's depth. Exchanges would not need dealers to provide depth.
Exchanges simply match indexed buy and sell
limit orders. All a dealer can do is put in his own
limit orders. If he does this without any special
information, he expects to lose money on his
trades. Marketmaking is unprofitable, so in equilibrium, dealers vanish.
Single-Pce Auctions
Some researcherssuch as Amihud and Mendelsen have suggested a series of single-priceauctions, or batchmarkets,instead of or in addition to
continuous trading.8 In the equilibrium outlined
above, the matches between indexed buy and sell
limit orders seem similar to single-price auctions.
In fact, an exchange that matches its buy and
sell orders at regularintervalsdifferslittle from one
that matches its orders continuously. The people
who care are those who want to use very urgent
orders at odd times, but the marketis very shallow
for orders like that, so omitting them does not
affectthe equilibriummuch. Similarly,whether an
exchange remains open all the time or closes
overnight does not matter much.
Those people who propose single-price auctions seem to imagine that tradersput in schedules
of amounts they are willing to buy or sell at
different prices. Like conventional limit orders,
such schedules are outdated by the time they reach
28
SunshineTrading
A sunshinetradeis an order to buy or sell a
certain number of shares at a set future time at
whatever price suffices to clear the market.9Preannouncing the trade signals that you are a nice
traderand thereby reduces your expected trading
cost. We can think of a sunshine trade as a preannounced indexed limit order that becomes urgent
once it starts to execute.
Why do we need sunshine trades when we
have indexed limit orders?The delay in executing
a limit order with low urgency plays the same role
as the delay in executing a sunshine trade. Indeed,
indexed limit orders dominate sunshine trades
because they execute at a constant expected fractional rate. That means an indexed limit order has
no specific time horizon. Exchangesdo not have to
say what other trades people who use limit orders
can or cannot do. In an anonymous market,restrictions like these are difficultor impossibleto enforce.
If exchanges allow sunshine trades but do not
restrict other trading before the specified time,
such trades lose their role in signaling lack of
information.A person can put in a large sunshine
trade to sell and then move the price using a small
but urgent order to buy just before the time of the
sunshine trade. This action makes the sunshine
trade into a news trade.
In other words, sunshine trades add nothing
to a marketin which exchanges offer indexed limit
orders at low levels of urgency. In an unrestricted
equilibrium,sunshine trades vanish.
BasketTrading
Subrahmanyam and Gorton and Pennacchi
have suggested that traders without information
may try to signal that they have no news by
trading index futures contracts or a whole basket
of securities at once.10 Does this strategy mean
that, in equilibrium,a nice traderfaces better terms
if he is trading a basket of securities than if he is
trading individual securities? I think not. If a
basket trade moves prices less than a collection of
individual trades, then any trader can move the
price without taking a net position. He can simul-
taneously enter opening orders on many individual securities and a closing basket order, choosing
levels of urgency that cause the opening and
closing orders to execute at the same speed. The
likelihood that the opening orders move prices
more than the closing order should cause a change
in the prices of all the securities and the basket.
Knowing this, the tradercan add in another trade
that makes the whole program profitable.
In equilibrium,the only way to signal that you
have no news is to use an indexed limit orderwith
a very low level of urgency.
CONCLUSIONS
What will exchanges look like when we reach a
competitive equilibrium?I conjecturethat they will
FOOTNOTES
1. SanfordJ. Grossmanand Joseph E. Stiglitz, "Information
and Competitive Price Systems," The AmericanEconomic
Review,vol. 66, no. 2 (May 1976):246-53;and "On the
Impossibility of InformationallyEfficient Markets," The
AmericanEconomicReview,vol. 70, no. 3 (June 1980):393408.
2. Albert Kyle, "ContinuousAuctions and Insider Trading,"
vol. 53, no. 6 (November 1985):1315-35;and
Econometrica,
"On Incentives to Produce PrivateInformationwith Continuous Trading," working paper, Princeton University,
1985.
3. LawrenceR. Glosten and Paul R. Milgrom, "Bid, Ask and
TransactionPrices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders,"Journalof FinancialEconomics,
vol. 14, no. 1 (March1985):71-100;and SanfordJ. Grossman and Merton H. Miller, "Liquidityand MarketStructure," TheJournalof Finance,vol. 43, no. 3 Uuly1988):61733.
4. Anat R. Admati and Paul Pfleiderer, "Sunshine Trading
and FinancialMarketEquilibrium,"TheReviewof Financial
Studies,vol. 4, no. 3 (Fall1991):443-81.
5. LawrenceR. Glosten, "Is the ElectronicOpen LimitOrder
Book Inevitable?"The Journalof Finance,vol. 49, no. 4
(September1994):1127-61.
6. LawrenceHarris,"Liquidity,TradingRules, and Electronic
TradingSystems," working paper, Universityof Southern
California,1990.
order.See
7. I have called this type of order a participating
Fischer Black, "Toward a Fully Automated Exchange,"
FinancialAnalystsJournal,vol. 27, no. 4 Uuly/August1971):
28-35 and 44; and "A Fully Computerized Stock Exchange," FinancialAnalystsJournal,vol. 27, no. 6 (November/December1971):24-28and 86-87. Brown and Holden
discuss a relatedordercalled a quoteadjustedlimitorder.See
David P. Brown and Craig W. Holden, "The Design of
LimitOrders,"working paper, IndianaUniversity, 1993.
8. Yakov Amihud and Haim Mendelson, "The Effects of
29