March 5, 2015

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations
(904) 620-2102
UNF Poll Finds Uncertainty and Indecision as March Election Looms
A new poll from the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of
North Florida reveals registered voters on the First Coast are indecisive as the March
election draws near.
The poll, which interviewed likely voters in Duval County, revealed that Alvin
Brown is leading the mayors race with 37 percent; Lenny Curry, 25 percent; Bill Bishop,
11 percent; Omega Allen, 2 percent; and 25 percent, dont know or refused to answer.
With early voting starting in a mere four days, a quarter of the electorate is unsure whom
they are voting for in this election. Such high levels of uncertainty provide opportunities
for each of the candidates to increase their vote share.
Browns job approval rating is 55 percent, typically a good sign for incumbents,
however, that isnt translating into votes for the mayor. Of the 546 likely voters polled, 44
percent think Brown is a strong leader and 41 percent dont think he is a strong leader,
with 15 percent unsure or unwilling to answer.
Continuing the trend of uncertainty with the electorate, 23 percent think that
Curry is a strong leader and 15 percent dont think he is strong leader, while a whopping
62 percent dont know or refused to answer. When asked if Brown cares about people
like you, 63 percent of likely voters think he does while 22 percent doesnt. When asked
about Curry caring about people like them, 36 percent believe he does and 15 percent
doesnt, however, 49 percent dont know or refused to answer.
When respondents were asked to place Brown, Curry and Bishop on a five-point
ideological spectrum, the results further highlight the awareness gap between the
incumbent and the challengers. Forty-three percent of respondents classified Brown as
liberal, while only 14 percent didnt know or refused to place him on the five-point scale.
Conversely, 38 percent of respondents considered Curry conservative, but 49
percent of likely voters were unable or unwilling to place him on the ideological scale. A
plurality of voters that were able to place Bishop on the ideological scale13 percent
considered him a moderate or middle of the road, but 66 percent didnt know or refused

to place him ideologically. The large numbers of likely voters that are unfamiliar enough
about the two main challengers to even have opinions on the ideological positions
highlights the lack of awareness about the election among the most likely voters.
In the sheriffs race, voters are no more decided. The UNF poll shows Ken
Jefferson is leading the pack with 24 percent; Mike Williams, 16 percent; Jimmy
Holderfield, 10 percent; Jay Farhat, 7 percent; Tony Cummings, 4 percent; Rob
Schoonover, 4 percent; Lonnie McDonald, 2 percent; and 34 percent didnt know or
refused to answer. With seven candidates and such a large percentage of undecided
voters, this race is completely up in the air.
The Public Opinion Research Laboratory, through the use of a 27-station
telephone-polling laboratory at UNF, conducted the survey. Approximately 120 UNF
students participated in the data collection. A polling sample of randomly selected likely
voters was drawn from the Duval County Supervisor of Elections voter file. Likely voters
are classified as voters who cast a ballot in three of the four previous general elections
(2011 first election, 2011 general election, 2012 general election and 2014 general
election) or for more recently registered voters if they have voted in all eligible general
elections (both 2012 and 2014, or only 2014 if they were registered to voter after the
2012 general election).
The survey was conducted Monday, Feb. 23, through Friday, Feb. 27, and
includes 546 adult registered likely voters in Duval County with a margin of error of +/- 4
percent. Race, gender and party registration were weighted to reflect an electorate that
is similar to what turned out in March 2011partisan registration is roughly equal and
African-American voters represent approximately 28 percent of the electorate.
Below are the full results of this poll, which was supported by Dr. Barbara
Hetrick, College of Arts and Sciences dean. For more information or questions about
methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder, UNF assistant professor of political science, at
(904) 620-1205 or m.binder@unf.edu.
UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful
campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the
opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

Toplines
Q2. If the election for mayor were being held today, for whom would you vote?
N=546 +/- 4 percent
Alvin Brown - Democrat
Lenny Curry - Republican
Bill Bishop - Republican
Omega Allen - No Party Affiliation
Someone Else
DK/R

Even Party ID (similar to March 2011)

37 percent
25 percent
11 percent
2 percent
<1 percent
25 percent

Q3. Who would be your second choice?

*Only asked if Q2 responded Bishop, Allen or Someone Else
N=80
Alvin Brown - Democrat
Lenny Curry - Republican
Someone Else
DK/R

31 percent
48 percent
4 percent
17 percent

Vote for mayor by party ID

N=546
Democrats
Brown
63 percent
Curry
5 percent
Bishop
8 percent
DK/Refused
22 percent

Republicans
12 percent
47 percent
14 percent
25 percent

Vote for mayor by race

N=546
Brown
Curry
Bishop
DK/Refused

African-Americans
67 percent
2 percent
1 percent
26 percent

Whites
22 percent
34 percent
17 percent
25 percent

NPA
29 percent
17 percent
21 percent
27 percent

All
37 percent
25 percent
11 percent
24 percent

All
37 percent
25 percent
11 percent
24 percent

Q4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Alvin Brown is handling his job as
mayor of Jacksonville?
N=546
Strongly Approve
18 percent
Somewhat Approve
37 percent
Somewhat Disapprove
18 percent
Strongly Disapprove
16 percent
DK/R
11 percent

Q5. Do you think Alvin Brown is a strong leader or not a strong leader?
N=546
Strong Leader
44 percent
Not a Strong Leader
41 percent
DK/R
15 percent
Q6. Do you think Lenny Curry is a strong leader or not a strong leader?
N=546
Strong Leader
23 percent
Not a Strong Leader
15 percent
DK/R
62 percent
Q7. Do you think Alvin Brown is someone who cares about people like you or someone
who doesnt care about people like you?
N=546
Cares about people like you
63 percent
Does not care about people
22 percent
like you
DK/R
15 percent
Q8. Do you think Lenny Curry is someone who cares about people like you or someone
who doesnt care about people like you?
N=546
Cares about people like you
36 percent
Does not care about people
15 percent
like you
DK/R
49 percent
Q17. How would you place Alvin Brown on a five-point scale arranged from very liberal
to very conservative?
N=546
Very Liberal
16 percent
Slightly Liberal
27 percent
Moderate; Middle of the Road
29 percent
Slightly Conservative
9 percent
Very Conservative
5 percent
DK/R
14 percent
Q18. Where would you place Lenny Curry on this scale?
N=546
Very Liberal
3 percent
Slightly Liberal
3 percent
Moderate; Middle of the Road
9 percent
Slightly Conservative
16 percent
Very Conservative
22 percent

DK/R

47%

Q19. Where would you place Bill Bishop on this scale?

N=546
Very Liberal
2 percent
Slightly Liberal
4 percent
Moderate; Middle of the
13 percent
Road
Slightly Conservative
10 percent
Very Conservative
5 percent
DK/R
66 percent
Q9. If the election for sheriff were being held today, for whom would you vote?
N=546
Tony Cummings-Democrat
4 percent
Jay Farhat- Republican
7 percent
Jimmy Holderfield10 percent
Republican
Ken Jefferson-Democrat
24 percent
Lonnie McDonald- Republican
2 percent
Rob Schoonover- Republican
4 percent
Mike Williams- Republican
16 percent
Someone Else
1 percent
DK/R
34 percent
Q11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Jacksonville Sherriffs Office is
handling its job?
N=546
Strongly Approve
24 percent
Somewhat Approve
39 percent
Somewhat Disapprove
17 percent
Strongly Disapprove
14 percent
DK/R
6 percent
Q28. Are we reaching you today on a landline or cell phone?
N=546
Landline
40 percent
Cell Phone
59 percent
R
1 percent
Q29.What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
N=546
Less than High School
2 percent
Degree
High School Graduate
15 percent
Some College
31 percent
College Graduate
30 percent

Post Graduate
DK/R

19 percent
2 percent

Q30. What is your annual household income?

N=546
Less than $25,000
9 percent
$25,000-$50,000
21 percent
$50,000-$75,000
16 percent
$75,000-$100,000
13 percent
Above $100,000
20 percent
DK/R
22 percent
Q31. Race
N=546
White
African-American
Hispanic
Other

67 percent
28 percent
3 percent
2 percent

32. Party ID
N=546
Democrat
Republican
No Party Affiliation
Other

45 percent
45 percent
7 percent
2 percent

33. Gender
N=546
Male
Female

46 percent
54 percent

-UNF-