1NC

Auto industry is slowly rising

Ted Reed 09/04/12 - 10:34 AM EDT Ted Reed covers the transportation industry. He previously covered the airline industry
for 20 years for publications including The Charlotte Observer, Miami Herald and Sacramento Bee. He also worked for US
Airways, writing internal publications and speeches for the company's executives. He is a graduate of Wesleyan University and
holds a master's in journalism from Columbia University.

DETROIT -- (TheStreet) -- Automakers are reporting strong August sales as the auto industry remains
a bright spot in a mediocre economy. Ford (F) said August sales gained 13%; GM (GM) said sales rose
10% and Chrysler reported a 14% gain. Toyota (TM) sales rose 46%. "The auto industry has been a
bright spot for the economy all year long and that will continue," GM economist Sue Yingzi Sue said Tuesday
morning on a conference call with reporters. She said a revision by the Bureau of Economic Analysis enables

a slightly higher estimate of 14.2 million to 14.3 million for the seasonally adjusted annualized sales
rate. Ford sales totaled 197,249, with retail sales up 19%. Sales of the Ford Escape compact utility vehicle rose
37% to 28,188. Fusion sales rose 21% to 21,690. F-Series sales rose 19% to 58,201. Lincoln sales rose 2% to 8,141,
but Lincoln retail sales rose 21%. Fiesta sales fell 28% to 4,176. Ken Czubay, Ford vice president, U.S. marketing,
sales and service, said many customers visit the showroom to see the Fiesta, but end up buying a Focus. GM said
August sales totaled 240,520. Retail sales rose 11%, making August the best retail month of the year, while fleet
sales rose 6%. All four GM brands posted higher total and retail sales, with Chevrolet up 11%, Cadillac up 11%,
Buick up 12% and GMC up 4%. Buick had its best retail sales month of the year and its best August since 2006. The
brand is tracking to its best retail sale year since 2006. Industry sales growth is being moved by pent-up
demand, Sue said, noting, "People have been holding off new purchases for such a long time, since

2008 until now. Even though the economic news is very mediocre, very slow, and very moderate, we
see improvement over all." In particular, job growth is continuing and consumer confidence is
improving, she said. GM said that four vehicles -- Cruze, Spark, Sonic and Volt -- set monthly sales records in
August, helped by advertising during the Olympics. Cruze sold 25,975 units, Spark sold 2,630, Sonic sold 8,703 and
Volt sold 2,831. Chrysler, the first automaker to report Tuesday, said August sales rose 14% to 130,120 units, its best
August total since 2007. Dodge brand sales rose 13% to 47,348, while Jeep brand sales rose 5% to 42,839. Sales of
the Dodge Ram pickup truck, the group's best-selling vehicle, rose 19% to 25,215. Sales of the new Dodge Dart
totaled 3,045. Volkswagen said August sales rose 63% to 41,011.

[Insert Link]
Automotive industry is vital to the economy
Hill et al 10- Sustainable Transportation and Communities Group and Project Lead,

Project Manager of the center for automotive

research, Research Associate at the center for automotive research, (Kim, Debbie Menk, Adam Cooper, Contribution of the Automotive Industry
to the Economics of All Fifty States and the Unites States, http://www.oesa.org/Doc-Vault/Industry-Information-Analysis/CAR-EconomicSignificance-Report.pdf0.
The automotive industry is a very important industry in the U.S. economy; no other single industry links as
closely to the U.S. manufacturing sector or directly generates as much retail business and overall employment. Manufacturing

has
been the backbone of the American economy, and the automotive industry is its heart . A look at the entire
production and supply chain provides a rich narrative of how a strong automotive industry historically supports the
growth and stability of many other industries, such as basic materials suppliers of steel, plastic, rubber
and glass, which are used for making bodies, interiors and trim, tires, gaskets and windows . Figure 1.4 provides
a comparison of the value added per employee (measured in thousands of dollars per year) across several manufacturing industries. The value
added per employee can be thought of as the difference between the cost of materials and the sale price of the good. Effective deployment of land,
labor, and capital create value; in 2006, each employee in the motor vehicle assembly industry created $321,000

of value in the final products shipped; fourth highest amongst manufacturing industries . An economy is
reinforced by the size and job creating capability of its manufacturing base . Within the broad manufacturing
landscape of the U.S., few industries are as large or provide so many indirect and ancillary opportunities for
job creation as the motor vehicle industry. Figure 1.5 highlights the sheer size of the motor vehicle assembly and parts

manufacturing industry which is the second largest employer within the subset of manufacturing. Some industries inherently create more jobs
than other industries. A high jobs creation multiplier tends to be associated with industries that require large

amounts of inputs from other industries, source inputs from industries that have a high regional purchase
coefficient, or pay above average wages.

Economic collapse leads to war

Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010,
Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace:
Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict . Political
science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of
interdependent stales. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow.
First, on the systemic level. Pollins (20081 advances Modclski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that rhythms

in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often
bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous shocks such as economic
crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. 19SJ) that leads to uncertainty
about power balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fcaron. 1995). Alternatively, even a relatively
certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to
challenge a declining power (Werner. 1999). Separately. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel
leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major, medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections
between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level. Copeland's (1996. 2000) theory of trade
expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of
states. He argues that interdependent states arc likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade
relations. However, if the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace items

such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as states will be inclined to use force to

gain access to those resources. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it
triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states.4 Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and
external armed conflict at a national level. Mom berg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict

and external conflict, particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write. The linkage, between
internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing . Economic conflict
lends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour. Moreover, the presence of a recession tends to
amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other (Hlomhen? & Hess. 2(102. p. X9>
Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blombcrg. Hess. & Wee ra pan a,
2004). which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions . Furthermore, crises generally reduce
the popularity of a sitting government. "Diversionary theory" suggests that, when facing unpopularity
arising from economic decline, sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military
conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. Wang (1996), DcRoucn (1995), and Blombcrg. Hess, and Thacker (2006) find
supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force arc at least indirecti) correlated. Gelpi (1997). Miller (1999). and Kisangani
and Pickering (2009) suggest that Ihe tendency towards diversionary tactics arc greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact
that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has
provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are
statistically linked lo an increase in the use of force. In summary, rcccni economic scholarship positively correlates economic

integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship links

economic decline with external conflict al systemic, dyadic and national levels.' This implied connection between integration,
crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Overview
Cross Apply our Reed evidence- Auto industry is a critical spot to economic growth,
perception, and consumer investment but these times are key because industry is rising
slowly.
[Link Analysis]
Extend our Hill evidence- The auto industry is the backbone of the economy because it is
critical to job growth, spillover to other industries, and innovations of technology.
Extend Royal- An economic collapse leads to war, as our evidence gives specifics warrant
that the linkage, between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and
mutually reinforcing as country antagonisms grow due to fewer industries and resources.
We control the internal links to war scenarios, and this disad turns case.
Turns case auto industry collapse destroys the ability to build alternatives, and makes
their impacts inevitable
Karlin 9 founder, editor and publisher of BuzzFlash at TruthOut organization (Mark, December 2009, Chosen to appear in Bloombergs
Business Week, Americans Should Buy U.S. Cars, Period, Business Week,
http://www.businessweek.com/debateroom/archives/2009/02/americans_should_buy_us_cars_period.html#share)
A short time ago, my wife and I bought an American car, a Ford (F) Focus, and I left the dealership feeling very proud. I didnt expect thatthe
pride in doing our small part to help maintain the U.S. auto industry while it reinvents itselfbut it was there. Were Americans, and we are
assisting American skilled workers and an industry that is essential to our nations economic recovery, as well as one potentially significant to our
national security (as it was in World War II). Some private industries are integral to long-term national financial

viability. The Detroit car industrylike our aircraft manufacturing capacityfalls into this category. We are all aware that in todays global
economy some parts on U.S. cars are from overseas, and even some models are assembled elsewhere. But the fact remains that a nation
that abandons its core manufacturing base is committing itself to economic dependence on overseas
corporations and countries. So the question for my wife and me was this: Do we go with a slightly higher-rated foreign compact or
an American car that has just about caught up? We didnt have to ponder long. Detroit and the UAW need consumers to
believe in the present and future of a revitalized U.S. transportation industry . And yes, I fully support
transportation diversification into high-speed trains, mass transit, and other alternatives to cars, but its
easier to branch out from an existing production capacity than to start from scratch. The best
economic investment in realizing that goal is to buy an American car.

Uniqueness
Auto industry is on the rise
NRDC Published August 9, 2012 07:09 AM http://www.enn.com/business/article/44779 The Natural Resources
Defense Council (NRDC) is an international nonprofit environmental organization with more than 1.3 million
members and online activists. Since 1970, our lawyers, scientists, and other environmental specialists have worked
to protect the world's natural resources, public health, and the environment. NRDC has offices in New York City,
Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Livingston, Montana, and Beijing.
With the launch of new federal vehicle fuel economy rules only about one week away, the American auto

industry has grown by nearly a quarter million jobs (236,600) since June 2009 when the auto
industry hit bottom, according to a new report available from DrivingGrowth.org. The report from
DrivingGrowth.org (http://www.DrivingGrowth.org) finds that fuel efficiency is a major factor behind the gains in
U.S. auto jobs. A website that tracks the revitalization of the U.S. auto industry , DrivingGrowth.org is
sponsored by three leading U.S. environmental organizations: The Natural Resources Defense Council,
the National Wildlife Federation, and the Michigan League of Conservation Voters Education Fund.

Manufacturing of motor vehicle and parts has grown by 165,100, or 26.4 percent since June 2009.
Another 71,500 jobs have been added at U.S. auto dealerships. Automakers, their suppliers and
their dealers are now looking ahead to a brighter future after the dark days of the recession .
Examples of how fuel-efficiency standards are accelerating the auto industrys recovery in the U.S. include the
following: Michigan -- 35,200 new auto manufacturing jobs since June 2009 when the auto industry hit bottom,
accounting for half of the states total job gains over the same period. In Saginaw, Michigan, for example,
automotive supplier has added 650 jobs and will retain an additional 1,000 jobs for production of electric power
steering components (EPS) for U.S.-made pickup trucks. EPS, which replaces a more fuel intensive hydraulic
system, can boost fuel economy by 4-6percent on a typical vehicle. Indiana -- 19,800 new auto manufacturing jobs
since June 2009 when the auto industry hit bottom, accounting for over one third of the states total job gains over
the same period. In Greensburg, Indiana, Honda is investing $40 million and will hire 300 new workers as its
Indiana facility becomes the sole global producer of the fuel-efficient Honda Civic hybrid. It will be exported to
markets around the world from Indiana. Ohio -- 11,300 new auto jobs since June 2009 when the auto industry hit
bottom, accounting for one quarter of the state's total job gains over the same period. In Warren, Ohio, General
Motors is running three shifts at its Lordstown Assembly plant, adding 1,200 jobs and employing 4,200 total
workers to produce the high-mileage Chevy Cruze, which achieves 42 miles per gallon (MPG) in the EcoCruze
model. "Setting strong fuel efficiency standards means we are sending more of our energy dollars to

the Midwest, not the Middle East" said Tiffany Ingram, Midwest advocacy director for NRDC.
"Global automakers are now sourcing their most advanced, high-tech manufacturing here in the
United States, creating a more sustainable and secure future for U.S. industry and U.S. workers."

Auto industry is on the tipping point, but slowly improving

Michael Liu, Analyst for FranchiseHelp, Graduate of NYU's Stern School of Business, 2012,
<http://www.franchisehelp.com/industry-reports/automotive-franchise-industry-report >. Accessed July 10, 2012

The automobile industry is not going anywhere soon. As the trends in the automotive industry
continue, there exists both old and new opportunities available for those interested in franchising to
get involved. Car maintenance, repairs, and body services are regularly going to be in demand regardless of
whether people prefer to buy new cars or keep their old ones. The green movement has hit the automotive
industry as all car manufacturers are focusing their attention on producing more environmentally
friendly and fuel efficient vehicles. As this infant market matures, there will be a demand for services from
businesses that understands how to cater to these specific types of vehicles. For potential business owners who
have an interest in the automotive industry, partaking in an automotive franchise provides a good
opportunity for everyone.

Currently favorable business conditions are vital to car technology the next few years are
key to the long term transition
KMPG Jan 2010
http://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/transformationautomotive-industry.pdf
For example, Toyota is now planning to introduce clean diesel engines after having launched a successful
hybrid program. Toyota also plans to introduce lithium-ion hybrid vehicles in some markets through a
joint venture with their battery supplier, Panasonic. Companies may increasingly engage their
suppliers, and sometimes their competitors, to bring best-of-breed technologies to the market at
the lowest cost. Since technology costs highly correlate with manufacturing scale, a small number of
suppliers with large footprints in a technology area may emerge as cost leaders with a significant
competitive advantage. Some of these suppliers may also form regional clusters based on
government incentives and other favorable business conditions. Federal funds introduced by the
United States government for R&D in clean technologies and for re-tooling existing factories may
motivate companies to increase their United States footprint. The next 5 to 10 years may bring
substantial structural changes to the automotive industry. Although a large portion of the global
automotive industry is still in distress, companies have to look beyond their short-term survival
challenges to become successful in the long run. A longer-term strategy will involve rebalancing
product portfolios and shedding unprofitable assets, as well as investing in strategic growth areas through
a complex web of global relationships. As a result, successful companies will increasingly become
global, asset light, and responsive to market shifts. A clearly defined global M&A strategy will play a
dominant role in separating winners from losers, and eventually shape the future of the global automotive
industry.

Links

Generic
Public policy trades off
Slack et al 9 --Professor Emeritus in the Department of Geography at Concordia University (Brian,
Jean-Paul Rodrigue-- professor at the Department of Economics and Geography at Hofstra University,
member of the Global Agenda Council on Advanced Manufacturing, , Claude Comtois-- professor of
geography at the University of Montreal, 2009, Second edition of the textbook The Geography of
Transport Systems, Chapter 3, Hofstra University,
http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch3en/conc3en/ch3c1en.html)
It is generally advocated that a form of modal equality (or modal neutrality) should be part of public policy where each mode would compete
based upon its inherent characteristics. Since different transport modes are under different jurisdiction and funding mechanisms, modal equality is
conceptually impossible as some modes will always be more advantageous than others. Modal competition is influenced by

public policy where one mode could be advantaged over the others. This particularly takes place
over government funding of infrastructure and regulation issues. For instance, in the United States the Federal Government
would finance 80% of the costs of an highway project, leaving the state government to supply the remaining 20%. For public transit, this share is
50%, while for passenger rail the Federal Government will not provide any funding. Under such circumstances, public policy shapes

modal preferences. The technological evolution in the transport industry aims at adapting the transport infrastructures to growing needs
and requirements. When a transport mode becomes more advantageous than another over the same route
or market, a modal shift is likely to take place. A modal shift involves the growth in the demand of a
transport mode at the expense of another, although a modal shift can involve an absolute growth in both of the concerned
modes. The comparative advantages behind a modal shift can be in terms of costs, convenience, speed or reliability. For passengers, this involved
a transition in modal preferences as incomes went up, such as from collective to individual modes of transportation. For freight, this has implied a
shift to faster and more flexible modes when possible and cost effective, namely trucking and air freight.

New human transportation infrastructure hurts the auto industry.

Bethel 9 Director of Frazier Capital Valuatio; Masters in International Finance and European Business (Stephen, 1 December
2009, The Valuation of Auto & Recreational Vehicle Dealership Operations, Chapter 2, Frazier Capital,
http://www.fraziercapital.com/books/auto/2.pdf
Second, rivalry between existing competitors involves such variables as the number of competitors, the

relative

strength of the competitors, the strength of their competitors relationship with car/truck distributors and manufacturers, the industry
growth potential, the amount of fixed costs needed, service differences, and quality of cars available. Third, pressure from substitute
products can hurt the auto industry. The auto industry faces competition not only from within, but also
from other forms of transportation such as trains, subways, bicycles, metro transits and others . One
needs to focus on substitute products and the minimum switching costs for potential customers, and high
profit earning industries which can afford to reduce margins in order to broaden their market into the
sellers market.

Either they aren't efficient or they link

Hilmola 11 (Olli-Pekka, "Benchmarking efficiency of public passenger transport in larger cities,"
Benchmarking 18.1, Proquest)
Argued development steps are further supported from the environmental perspective too; we

analyzed relationships of different

measures of private car use, and found interesting as well as statistically strong connection between share of private car use (or
motorized vehicle) and measured DEA efficiency. In Figure 5 [Figure omitted. See Article Image.] is shown this relationship between space used
DEA model (small) and share of private car use - linear regression enjoys R2 -value of 35 per cent (this regression relationship was also found to
be < 0.001 statistically significant in regression analysis, see Appendix). As could be clearly noted, lower the efficiency of the

public transportation DEA model, the correspondingly higher use of private cars. This relationship holds very
nicely until the level of 0.9 DEA efficiency - interestingly some cities having frontier performance could have high car use or other way around.
Similar statistically significant relationships were found within both larger DEA models (space and services; see Appendix for regression
analysis); these also repeated similar causal relationship of private car use and DEA efficiency, which was having strong explanation power until
frontier efficiency.
Note: DEA=data envelopment analysis

Public transportation and cars are zero sum

PTUA 10 (Public Transport Users Association, "Common Urban Myths About Transport,"
http://www.ptua.org.au/myths/compete.shtml)
trains,
trams and buses work best when they are combined into a network, with modes complementing one another rather
Public transport advocates and planners have spent a great deal of effort explaining the way in which public transport modes like

than operating as competing fiefdoms. Because of the 'network effects' unleashed, improvements to bus services actually lead to more patronage
on trains as well, and vice versa. The road lobby, in the same have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too spirit that gave us balanced transport, has

attempted to apply this same argument to public transport and cars. It's not about cars versus public transport,
said Roads Minister Tim Pallas in November 2007, quoting almost verbatim from an RACV policy document: RACV does not subscribe to the
cars versus public transport argument. We believe both are necessary and complementary.... To ensure the various modes of transport complement
rather than compete, transport should be planned as an integrated system rather than a set of separate modes. ---Royal Automobile Club of
Victoria, RACV Directions 2007 People are tempted to accept this argument also because we are naturally drawn to avoiding conflict. After all, if
the organisation charged with promoting private car use says it doesn't oppose public transport, surely that's a good thing? So what if lots of new
roads get built, as long as there's some support for public transport too? Many of us have seen car dependence enacted as policy for so long that
we try to make the best of a bad situation, proclaiming (like the curate in the old cartoon) that actually, parts of it are excellent! The notion of
'integrated' or 'balanced' transport is enduringly popular for just this reason. This myth loomed especially large in the Eddington 'East-West Needs
Assessment' of 2008, the most significant recommendations of which were a $9 billion road tunnel and an $8 billion rail tunnel in inner
Melbourne. Not only did Eddington hold to the RACV line that the road and rail tunnels would not compete with one another: he actually urged
the two be done in combination and that there is a special benefit to doing so. I do not support - and I have not adopted - a 'road versus rail'
approach to transport planning.... Instead of favouring one mode over another, I have looked for the right combination of modes that offer the best
options for meeting Melbourne's east-west transport needs.... my recommendations.... I believe.... deserve fair consideration as a balanced and
measured response to tackling some of Melbourne's major transport dilemmas. ---Sir Rod Eddington, Investing in Transport - Overview,
Introduction, p.6. With any package, if you take pieces of it and leave pieces behind, then you diminish the totality of what the package could do.
---Sir Rod Eddington, ABC Stateline, 4 April 2008 Yet what does it really mean to claim that roads and public

transport are 'complementary'? It could only mean that building roads actually promotes public
transport use - in the way better buses promote travel by train - or at the very least, that building roads has no effect on the amount of travel
by public transport, relative to the amount of travel by car. But of course this is nonsense: build a freeway, and people respond by making
more car trips, including trips they may previously have made by public transport. This we know from common sense, and also from the
evidence: every freeway built to date has filled with new traffic, often within just a couple of years, and led to a decline in public transport's share
of travel. The decline in public transport mode share with the opening of new roads has been seen most clearly where the road runs parallel to an
existing train line. When the Mulgrave and South Eastern Freeways were linked in 1988, figures from The Met showed that 20% of peak
passengers on the Glen Waverley line had shifted to using their cars within weeks of the road being opened. So while in 1987 there were seven
inbound peak-hour expresses on the Glen Waverley line, by 1995 the drop in patronage had reduced this number to two, and today there is just
one. But aside from the localised effects of particular roads, the shift away from public transport can also be seen in Melbourne-wide figures. The
graph below, from the 2007 Victorian Budget papers, shows public transport's share of motorised trips in Melbourne since CityLink opened in
2000. The graph shows mode share declining in each of the next four years - a decline that was only arrested when an increase in petrol prices
and CBD employment from 2005 caused train patronage to increase significantly. Even then, mode share in 2006 remained below the level in
1999. Interestingly, the 2008 Budget papers indicated that despite further strong patronage growth on trains, mode share had slipped again, from
8.8 to 8.6 percent of motorised trips. The 2008 graph seems to have tried to obscure this fact by an otherwise fairly pointless dilation of the
vertical axis. Subsequent Budget papers suggest that mode share may indeed be on the rise again, though the method by which the government
estimates overall travel has changed. By the 2010 Budget, the former Brumby Government had gone so far as to retrospectively decide that mode
share had actually been increasing all along! Even an unbiased observer would have cause to question whether this is more about face-saving spin
than honest re-estimation, given that all credible sources from the early 2000s (including State and Federal transport departments, and the Census)
clearly show public transport patronage stagnating and car use increasing strongly in the period from 2000 to 2004. All of which is consistent
with the original estimates of declining mode share over that period. The failure to consistently increase mode share stems from government
policy that continues to favour car travel and to marginalise public transport for anything other than peak hour CBD travel. If the State
Government had really believed in its aim (first proclaimed in 2002) of increasing public transport mode share to 20% by 2020, an obvious way
of demonstrating this would have been to rebalance transport funding away from roads and towards public transport infrastructure, such as
suburban rail extensions. Yet as a recent report from the Australian Conservation Foundation shows, in the decade from 2000 to 2010 Victoria
spent three times as much on road construction as on non-road transport infrastructure, and actually spent less on the latter as a proportion of
Gross State Product than any state bar Tasmania. And this all-too-familiar disparity has continued, even while public transport patronage soared
to record levels from 2006 onwards. Because this patronage surge occurred in spite of government's neglect of public transport, our system now
struggles to cope with patronage levels that are still moderate by the standard of large European or East Asian cities. Usage patterns are also
highly uneven: in suburbs like Doncaster, where transport follows the 'complementary' strategy of building big new roads and running buses on
them, public transport use and car use have increased at about the same (modest) rate, as one might intuitively expect. Quite plainly, there is

no 'network effect' between cars and public transport : just a 'zero-sum game', where more travel of
one sort means less of the other, all other things being equal. (Of course population growth means all things are not equal, but if we
really planned public transport with 20% mode share in mind, there would be ample room to accommodate additional travellers on an expanding
system: car use need not have to grow at all.) Freeway-building doesn't assist public transport (not even buses, as another
page explains), and
use.

good public transport is designed to reduce traffic, not just be a sideshow to continued growth in car

Any new plan will affect the auto industry.

KMPG, January 2010,
http://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/transformationautomotive-industry.pdf
For example, Toyota is now planning to introduce clean diesel engines after having launched a successful hybrid program.
Toyota also plans to introduce lithium-ion hybrid vehicles in some markets through a joint venture with their battery
supplier, Panasonic. Companies may increasingly engage their suppliers , and sometimes their competitors, to bring
best-of-breed technologies to the market at the lowest cost. Since technology costs highly correlate with manufacturing
scale, a small number of suppliers with large footprints in a technology area may emerge as cost leaders with a significant competitive advantage.
Some of these suppliers may also form regional clusters based on government incentives and other favorable business conditions. Federal

funds introduced by the U nited S tates government for R&D in clean technologies and for re-tooling
existing factories may motivate companies to increase their United States footprint.The next 5 to 10
years may bring substantial structural changes to the automotive industry. Although a large portion of the global
automotive industry is still in distress, companies have to look beyond their short-term survival challenges to become successful in the long run.
A longer-term strategy will involve rebalancing product portfolios and shedding unprofitable assets, as well as investing in strategic growth areas
through a complex web of global relationships. As a result, successful companies will increasingly become global, asset light, and

responsive to market shifts. A clearly defined global M&A strategy will play a dominant role in separating winners from losers,
and eventually shape the future of the global automotive industry.

HSR
No job creation-- built overseas
Business Insider 12 ("California Demonstrates Exactly How To Screw Up High Speed Rail," 1/10/12,
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-01-10/news/30610106_1_chsra-california-high-speed-rail-authority-acelaexpress)
California has a history of farming out its infrastructure projects. Exhibit A: The San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. It is years behind schedule.
The budget for the eastern span has ballooned from $1.3 billion to $6.3 billion. And the landmark 525 ft. tower of the "self-anchored suspension"
bridge was fabricated in ... China. For more on collapsed bridges and buildings in China (pics), the high-speed rail accident, and the economics of
having a big part of the Bay Bridge built there, read.... Our Chinese Bay Bridge. The high-speed rail system will have even more

foreign content. Building the civil works and laying the track will be done by local workers. But design and engineering will
be done overseas by companies with expertise in the field. Trains will be manufactured overseas as well,
though companies might promise to assemble them in the U.S. Mere crumbs. U.S. Taxpayers will fund the projectas they fund highway
construction. But part of the funds will go to foreign companies and advance their technologies . High-speed rail is
a worldwide business, and the leaders have become export powerhouses. Another

sector that American industry

abandoned.

HSR projects over-run the allocated costs and steal employment from auto-industry
Picone 11 (Brian, "High Speed Rail: Hardly an Investment in Future," 9/8/11, http://highspeedtraintalk.blogspot.com/2011/09/another-slant-on-poorer-people-having.html)
High speed rail proponents are fond of touting such projects as investments in our future. However, the term investment is misleading.
Investment implies that the party doing the investing will also suffer the consequences if an endeavor loses money. But when high speed rail
projects lose money as they do almost universally the taxpayer is on the hook, not the politicians who vote in favor of them. Even

advocates of high speed rail admit that such projects almost never cover their operating costs . Iaki
Barrn de Angoiti, director of high-speed rail at the International Union of Railways in Paris, admits that while he favors such projects, they are
not a profitable business. He goes on to point out that only two high speed rail routes in the world actually break even one from Paris to Lyon
and one from Tokyo to Osaka. Of course, rail proponents fail to mention the 11 other countries that consistently require

large taxpayer subsidies to keep their lines operational. Furthermore, the French and Japanese systems claim
profitability based on flawed accounting principles. The French accounting system treats taxpayer subsidies for the high speed rail as
commercial revenues." This makes the French programs $1.75 billion in profits much less impressive especially considering that, according to
a 2008 study by Amtrak, French taxpayers spend close to $10 billion per year subsidizing the high speed rail system. The Japanese system has an
even worse record. Within two decades of being established, Japans high speed rail system had accumulated such massive amounts of debt that
the entire system had to be privatized. Japanese taxpayers were then stuck with the systems $280 billion in debt, which they are still paying off
today. If Japan and France are the worlds two best examples of high speed rail success, then perhaps we should reconsider. Even China, a nation
that is no stranger to infrastructure investment, is shying away from high speed rail. In 2010, the Chinese Academy of Sciences urged the
government to reconsider further investment in high-speed rail, due to the current systems tremendous debts. According to Zhao Jian, a professor
at Jiaotong University in Beijing, high speed rail is a big loss the operation cost is too high. Claims that investment in high-speed rail will
create new jobs are dubious. The California High Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) predicts that 98% of its future riders are folks that would
otherwise drive or fly to their destinations. This means that nearly all of the employment created by such high speed

rail projects will simply be re-allocated from the airline and automobile industry. This may change the
composition of employment in the U.S. economy, but not the level while still giving the appearance of job creation.

HSR trades off with cars

Peterman et al 09 --Coordinator Analyst in Transportation Policy (David Randall Peterman,
Coordinator Analyst in Transportation Policy John Frittelli Specialist in Transportation Policy William J.
Mallett Specialist in Transportation Policy, December 8, 2009, Congressional Research Service, High
Speed Rail (HSR) in the US KA)
In heavily traveled and congested corridors, proponents contend that HSR will relieve highway and air traffic congestion, and, if on a separate
right-of-way, may also benefit freight rail and commuter rail movements where such services share track with existing intercity passenger rail
service.34 By alleviating congestion, the notion is that HSR potentially reduces the need to pay for capacity

expansions in other modes. On the question of highway congestion relief, many studies estimate that HSR will have little positive
effect because most highway traffic is local and the diversion of intercity trips from highway to rail will be small. In a study of HSR published in
1997, the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) estimated that in most cases rail improvements would divert only 3-6% of intercity automobile
trips. FRA noted that corridors with short average trip lengths, those under 150 miles, showed the lowest diversion rates.35 The U.S. Department
of Transportations Inspector General (IG) found much the same thing in a more recent analysis of HSR in the Northeast Corridor. The IG
examined two scenarios: Scenario 1 involved cutting rail trip times from Boston to New York from 3 12 hours to 3 hours and from New York to
Washington from 3 hours to 2 12; Scenario 2 involved cutting trip times on both legs by another 12 hour over scenario 1 . In both

scenarios, the IG found that the improvements reduced automobile ridership along the NEC by less than
1%.36 The IG noted automobile travel differs from air or rail travel in that it generally involves door-to-door service, offers greater flexibility in
time of departure, and does not require travelers to share space with strangers. Consequently, rail travel must be extremely competitive in other
dimensions, such as speed or cost, to attract automobile travelers.37 Planners of a high speed rail link in Florida between Orlando and Tampa, a
distance of about 84 miles, estimated that it would shift 11% of those driving between the two cities to the train, as well as 9% of those driving
from Lakeland to either Orlando (54 miles) or Tampa (33 miles). However, because most of the traffic on the main highway linking the two cities,
I-4, is not travelling between these cities, it was estimated that HSR would reduce traffic on the busiest sections of I-4 by less than 2%.38 The

final environmental impact statement for the project states that the reduction in the number of
vehicles resulting from the HSR system would not be sufficient to significantly improve the LOS [level of service] on I-4, as
many segments of the roadway would still be over capacity.39 The estimated cost of the HSR line was $2.0 billion to $2.5 billion,40 or $22
million to $27 million per mile.

Railroads
Rail hurts auto sector: shifts jobs overseas
Pollin and Baker 09 (Robert, Dean, " Public Investment, Industrial Policy and U.S. Economic
Renewal," December 2009, Center for Economic and Policy Research,
http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_201-250/WP211.pdf)
At the same time, particularly within a shorter-run framework there are problems with relying too heavily on rail
systems as the primary focus of public transportation investments. The most evident shorter-term concern is that these systems
require years of planning and spending before they come on line and communities enjoy the benefits. But in addition, the
United States, at present, has virtually no capacity to build mass transit systems and vehicles. Subway
cars used in the U.S. are supplied by French, German and Japanese companies. Other kinds of mass transit
vehicles are built either in South Korea or Germany. As Jonathan Feldman (2009) reports, the U.S. was once a technological leader in this field,
and could become so but this will take years of steady support in terms of research and development as well as public procurement contracts.
Finally, to the extent that overall transportation funding is shifted to rail systems , this would represent

an additional blow to the U.S. auto industry.

Bikes
Funding for bicycle infrastructure directly trades off with the auto industry
Larry Cohen February 2nd 2012 Creeps and weirdos: The auto industry agenda for keeping you on four
wheels http://www.nationofchange.org/creeps-and-weirdos-auto-industry-agenda-keeping-you-fourwheels-1328193397
But, the auto industrys profits depend on making sure that cars remain the standard mode
of transportation and that car companies grow their customer base, not lose them to bicycles.
Auto companies are fueled by profits, and the auto industry spent over $45 million last year alone
on lobbying Congress and other federal agencies in order to maintain a monopoly on our roadways.
The auto industry makes money by ensuring that the public values driving and that roads are built for cars
alone even if this means greater demand for fossil fuel, increased environmental degradation, fewer
opportunities for physical activity, and more road-related injuries.

Mass Transit
Major investment in public transit kills the auto industry
Franchise Direct 2009 Automotive Franchises Franchise Direct conducted an intensive study of the
automotive franchise industry by examining the FDDs of 30 businesses. The study shows that despite the
endemic problems in the car industry, automotive franchises remain a solid investment.
http://www.franchisedirect.com/automotivefranchises/automotiveindustrytrendsbusinessreportii/7/249
American communities and suburbs are designed very much around the car. Many

cities lack any reliable

public transport. Without major investment in mass transit infrastructure it will not pose a
major threat to car use. Americans will continue to rely heavily on their cars for the foreseeable future.
Already in 2009, the rate of decline of miles driven has slowed modestly. Gasoline prices have dropped to around $2
a gallon. As long as gasoline prices remain stable in 2009, auto franchises will benefit as consumers have more
disposable income to spend on deferred car maintenance and repairs.

Impacts

Economy
Auto Industry plays a crucial role in the economy
Waldron 12 ( Travis Waldron, March 23, 2012 think progress, staff writer, http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/05/23/489024/autoindustry-add-jobs/?mobile=nc Auto Industry Adds Thousands Of Jobs To Meet Growing Demand, Proving Auto Rescues Success Yet Again
KA)

The automobile industry has been a consistent bright spot in the American economy over the last
several months, as automakers have added jobs to meet growing demand. And news from the industry is only getting better, as new
estimates expect automakers to sell 14.3 million cars in the United States in 2012 1.5 million more
than they sold last year. Factories for both foreign and domestic automakers are now working at maximum
capacity and the industry is adding shifts and jobs to keep up with that rising demand, the USA Today reports: Some plants are
adding third work shifts. Others are piling on worker overtime and six-day weeks. And Ford Motor and Chrysler Group
are cutting out or reducing the annual two-week July shutdown at several plants this summer to add thousands of vehicles to their output. We
have many plants working at maximum capacity now, says Ford spokeswoman Marcey Evans. Were building as many (cars) as we can.

Chrysler and General Motors, the major beneficiaries of the auto rescue, have both reported their best
profits in more than a decade, and both were already planning to add jobs this ye ar. With factories now struggling
to meet demand, both foreign and domestic auto companies are planning to add even more jobs and, as the Center for American Progress
Adam Hersh and Jane Farrell noted in April, the industry has added more than 139,000 jobs in the last three years.

The strength of the auto industry is yet another sign that letting it fail would have been a major
mistake. Not only would it have cost more than a million jobs at a time when the economy was
struggling, it would have prevented the current growth that is helping both the industry and the
American economy recover.

Economic growth creates a stable political, democratic, and open foundation to prevent the
risk of conflict. Our evidence cites empirics
Delong 6 (J Bradfold Delong, March 17, Harvard Magazine, http://harvardmagazine.com/2006/01/growth-is-good.html, Growth is Good,
SS)
Benjamin M. Friedman 66, Jf 71, Ph.D. 71, Maier professor of political economy, now fills in this gap: he makes a powerful argument that

politically and sociologicallymodern society is a bicycle, with economic growth being the forward
momentum that keeps the wheels spinning. As long as the wheels of a bicycle are spinning rapidly, it is a very stable vehicle
indeed. But, he argues, when the wheels stopeven as the result of economic stagnation, rather than a downturn or a depression
political democracy, individual liberty, and social tolerance are then greatly at risk even in countries where
the absolute level of material prosperity remains high. Consider just one of his examplesa calculation he picks up from his colleague Alberto
Alesina, Ropes professor of political economy, and others: in an average country in the late twentieth century , real per

capita income is falling by 1.4 percent in the year in which a military coup occurs; it is rising by 1.4
percent in the year in which there is a legitimate constitutional transfer of political power; and it is
rising by 2.7 percent in the year in which no major transfer of political power takes place. If you
want all kinds of non-economic good things, Friedman sayslike openness of opportunity, tolerance, economic and
social mobility, fairness, and democracyrapid economic growth makes it much, much easier to get
them; and economic stagnation makes getting and maintaining them nearly impossible. The book is a delight to read, probing relatively deeply
into individual topics and yet managing to hurry along from discussions of political order in Africa to economic growth and the environment, to
growth and equality, to the Enlightenment thinkers of eighteenth-century Europe, to the twentieth-century histories of the major European
countries, to a host of other subjects. Yet each topics relationship to the central thesis of the book is clear: the subchapters show the virtuous
circles (by which economic growth and sociopolitical progress and liberty reinforce each other) and the vicious circles (by which stagnation
breeds violence and dictatorship) in action. Where growth is rapid, the movement toward democracy is easier

and societies become freer and more tolerant. And societies that are free and more tolerant (albeit not
necessarily democratic) find it easier to attain rapid economic growth. Friedman is not afraid to charge
head-on at the major twentieth-century counterexample to his thesis: the Great Depression in the United
States. Elsewhere in the world, that catastrophe offers no challenge to his point of view. Rising
unemployment and declining incomes in Japan in the 1930s certainly played a role in the
assassinations and silent coups by which that country went from a functioning constitutional
monarchy with representative institutions in 1930 to a fascist military dictatorship in 1940a dictatorship that, tied down in a

quagmire of a land war in Asia as a result of its attack on China, thought it was a good idea to attack, and thus add to its enemies, the two superpowers of Britain and
the United States. In western Europe the calculus is equally simple: no Great Depression, no Hitler. The saddest book on my shelf is a 1928 volume called Republican
Germany: An Economic and Political Survey, the thesis of which is that after a decade of post-World War I political turmoil, Germany had finally become a stable,
legitimate, democratic republic. And only the fact that the Great Depression came and offered Hitler his opportunity made it wrong.

Auto industry is key to the economy multiplier effect

AP, 12 (4/3/12, http://www.ohio.com/business/u-s-automakers-post-best-monthly-sales-since-2007-1.291157, JD)
If car sales stay at the same rate as March, they would end the year at 14.4 million, up from 12.8 million
in 2011. While thats still below the 17 million of the booming mid-2000s, its far higher than the industrys downturn in 2009, when 10.6
million vehicles were sold. Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry analysis at car buying site TrueCar.com, expects continued strong sales this
year, thanks to compelling new products, improvements in consumer confidence and the stock market and low interest rates. The good

news is that the recovery has legs, he said. He expects total sales of 14.5 million in 2012. That would be a
faster pace than many were predicting at the start of the year, and it builds on a strong performance in
January and February. As recently as October, J.D. Power and Associates lowered its 2012 forecast from 14.1 million vehicles to 13.8
million because of high gas prices and continuing economic uncertainty. The auto sectors recovery is helping the entire
economy. Auto is important because it creates so many other jobs, said Sung Won Sohn, an economics
professor at California State University. Think about the things that go into an auto: glass, textiles, rubber. Theres a lot of
financing activity. We are talking about a very significant portion of job creation. Sohn said a lot of
pent-up demand remains in the U.S., from people who couldnt afford cars during the recession to
those who waited for Japanese inventories to improve after last Marchs earthquake. The average age of a vehicle on U.S. roads
has reached 10.8 years, and many need to be replaced. GMs U.S. sales chief, Don Johnson, says pent-up
demand will continue to fuel sales well into next year . Sohn said high gas prices are actually helping
persuade people to trade in older, less-efficient vehicles. High car prices dont seem to be holding buyers
back, either. TrueCar said the average vehicle price reached a new record of $30,748 in March, around $2,000 more than the same month last
year. Even though drivers are switching to smaller cars, theyre appointing them with expensive luxuries such as leather seats and navigation
systems, Toprak said.

Economic decline heightens the risk of global conflictmultiple scenarios.

Burrows and Harris 9 Mathew J. Burrows, counselor in the National Intelligence Council, principal
drafter of Global Trends 2025: A Transformed Worldan unclassified report by the NIC published every
four years that projects trends over a 15-year period, has served in the Central Intelligence Agency since
1986, holds a Ph.D. in European History from Cambridge University, and Jennifer Harris, Member of the
Long Range Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council, holds an M.Phil. in International
Relations from Oxford University and a J.D. from Yale University, 2009 (Revisiting the Future:
Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis, The Washington Quarterly, Volume 32, Issue 2, April,
Available Online at http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Burrows.pdf, Accessed 08-22-2011, p. 3537)
Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and
interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample [end page 35] opportunity for unintended consequences,
there is a growing sense of insecurity.
Even so, history may be more instructive than ever. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not

likely to be repeated, the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling
democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral
institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no reason to think that this would not be true in
the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. For that reason, the ways in which the potential for greater
conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment
as they would be if change would be steadier.
In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move
up on the international agenda. Terrorisms appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and
youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific
knowledge will place some of the worlds most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of
descendants of long established groupsinheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary

to conduct sophisticated attacksand newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized, particularly in
the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn.

The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S. military presence
would almost certainly be the Middle East. Although Irans acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable, worries about a nucleararmed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and consider
pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of
the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and

terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and
broader conflict

if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals

combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in
achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, short
warning and missile flight times, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentially
leading to escalating crises. [end page 36]
Types of conflict that the world continues to experience, such as over resources, could reemerge, particularly if protectionism
grows and there is a resort to neo-mercantilist practices. Perceptions

of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries

to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies. In the worst case, this could result in interstate
conflicts

if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and

the survival of their regime. Even actions short of war, however, will have important geopolitical implications.
Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts, such as Chinas and Indias development of
blue water naval capabilities. If the fiscal stimulus focus for these countries indeed turns inward, one of the most obvious funding targets may be
military. Buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves, but it also will create
opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East,

cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult

more dog-eat-dog world .

both within and between states in

Hegemony
Vital to innovation and hegemony
Clark 08 -- retired Army general and former supreme allied commander of NATO, is a senior fellow at
the Burkle Center for International Relations at the University of California at Los Angeles (Wesley K.
Clark, "Whats Good for G.M. Is Good for the Army," New York Times, 11/17/08,
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/16/opinion/16clark.html?_r=4)
When President Dwight Eisenhower observed that Americas greatest strength wasnt its military, but its economy, he must have had
companies like General Motors and Ford in mind. Sitting atop a vast pyramid of tool makers, steel producers, fabricators and
component manufacturers, these companies not

only produced the tanks and trucks that helped win World War
II, but also lent their technology to aircraft and ship manufacturing. The United States truly became the arsenal of
democracy. During the 1950s, advances in aviation, missiles, satellites and electronics made Detroit seem a little old-fashioned in dealing with the
threat of the Soviet Union. The Armys requests for new trucks and other basic transportation usually came out a loser in budget battles against
missile technology and new modifications for the latest supersonic jet fighter. Not only were airplanes far sexier but they also counted as part of
our military tooth, while much of the land forces needs were tail. And in those days, more teeth, less tail had become a key concept in
military spending. But in 1991, the Persian Gulf war demonstrated the awesome utility of American land

power, and the Humvee (and its civilian version, the Hummer) became a star. Likewise, the ubiquitous homemade bombs of the current Iraq
insurgency have led to the development of innovative armor-protected wheeled vehicles for American force s, as
well as improvements in our fleets of Humvees, tanks, armored fighting vehicles, trucks and cargo carriers . In a little
more than a year, the Army has procured and fielded in Iraq more than a thousand so-called mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles. The
lives of hundreds of soldiers and marines have been saved, and their tasks made more achievable, by the efforts
of the American automotive industry. And unlike in World War II, America didnt have to divert much civilian capacity to meet
these military needs. Without a vigorous automotive sector, those needs could not have been quickly met.
More challenges lie ahead for our military, and to meet them we need a strong industrial base . For
years the military has sought better sources of electric power in its vehicles necessary to allow troops to monitor their radios with diesel
engines off, to support increasingly high-powered communications technology, and eventually to support electric propulsion and innovative
armaments like directed-energy weapons. In sum, this greater use of electricity will increase combat power while reducing our footprint. Much
research and development spending has gone into these programs over the years, but nothing on the manufacturing scale we really need. Now,
though, as Detroit moves to plug-in hybrids and electric-drive technology, the scale problem can be remedied. Automakers are

developing innovative electric motors, many with permanent magnet technology, that will have immediate
military use. And only the auto industry, with its vast purchasing power, is able to establish a
domestic advanced battery industry. Likewise, domestic fuel cell production which will undoubtedly have many
critical military applications depends on a vibrant car industry. To be sure, the public should demand transformation and new
standards in the auto industry before paying to keep it alive. And we should insist that Detroits goals include putting America in first place in
hybrid and electric automotive technology, reducing the emissions of the countrys transportation fleet, and strengthening our competitiveness
abroad. This should be no giveaway. Instead, it is a historic opportunity to get it right in Detroit for the good of

the country. But Americans must bear in mind that any federal assistance plan would not be just an economic measure. This is,
fundamentally, about national security.

Auto industry key to heg-- innovation and spillover

Ronis 06 (STATEMENT OF DR. SHEILA RONIS, DIRECTOR MBA/MS PROGRAMS, WALSH
COLLEGE; VICE PRESIDENT, NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION, TROY,
MICHIGAN CHINAS IMPACT ON THE U.S. AUTO AND AUTO PARTS INDUSTRIES HEARING
BEFORE THE U.S.CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED
NINTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION, July 17, 2006
http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2006hearings/transcripts/july_17/06_07_17_trans.pdf)
You will hear from my colleagues in the Department of Defense right here who are experts in the Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and
Material Shortages. or DMSMS. community. Mission capable systems and readiness are put at risk when DMSMS issues are left unresolved.
What isn't understood is the reality that the auto industry affects DMSMS because the industrial infrastructure that

supports the Department of Defense is shared by the auto industry. When a tier supplier to the auto
industry goes under. whether it is a machine tool company or in microelectronics. it reduces DoD's ability to function
whether we say so or not. I think we might as well say so. When government R&D investment in an industry
deteriorates. it's only a matter of time before an industry is in trouble. Manufacturing R&D by the federal

government has

almost disappeared. Young people no longer view working in manufacturing as a possible career so We're losing
our ability to train the next generation of scientists and engineers. We're losing critical to defense
industries from shipbuilding to machine tools. high performance explosives and explosive components. cartridge and propellant actuated
devices. welding and even the nuclear industry. All of these industries share the bottom of the base with the auto
industry. and that is what has become a national security issue. We need to maintain a capability to be
globally competitive in both product and process innovation. We must regain our manufacturing prowess and
leadership. We need to reinvigorate the Manufacturing Extension Partnership Program at NIST. We need to prioritize those technologies that
are critical to regaining and then maintaining leadership and competitive advantage in the overall industrial base so China does not become the
world's leader in technologies we need to be a superpower. China is rapidly becoming the manufacturing capital of

the world. For example. Chinese officials have very publicly stated that they want to become the foundry capital of the world and have a
worldwide monopoly on cast parts. They have a plan to win. And we don't.

Global conflict
Khalilzad 11 Former US ambassador, former Professor @ Columbia
(Zalmay Khalilzad, PhD, United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during
the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from
1990 to 1992 (2/8/11, National Review, The Economy and National Security; If we dont get our
economic house in order, we risk a new era of multi-polarity,
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-security-zalmay-khalilzad)
We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth .
Even though countries such as China, India, and Brazil have profound political, social, demographic, and economic problems, their economies
are growing faster than ours, and this could alter the global distribution of power. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar
world. If U.S. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow, it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will
emerge. The

closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical
competition among major powers, increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another, and
undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation.
The stakes are high. In modern history, the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S.
leadership. By contrast, multi-polar systems have been unstable, with their competitive dynamics resulting in
frequent crises and major wars among the great powers . Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both
world wars. American retrenchment could have devastating consequences. Without an American security blanket, regional powers could rearm in
an attempt to balance against emerging threats. Under this scenario, there

would be a heightened possibility of arms races,

miscalculation, or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict. Alternatively, in seeking to accommodate
the stronger powers, weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the United
States. Either way, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. As rival powers
rise, Asia in particular is likely to emerge as a zone of great-power competition. Beijing's economic rise has enabled a dramatic military buildup
focused on acquisitions of naval, cruise, and ballistic missiles, long-range stealth aircraft, and anti-satellite capabilities. China's strategic
modernization is aimed, ultimately, at denying the United States access to the seas around China. Even as cooperative economic ties in the region
have grown, China's expansive territorial claims -- and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea -- have
roiled its relations with South Korea, Japan, India, and Southeast Asian states. Still, the United States is the most significant barrier facing
Chinese hegemony and aggression.

China War
Decaying of the American auto industry would cause China to displace it causes surging
trade deficits and breaks in the relationship.
AAM (Alliance for American Manufacturing), January 2012, White House Paper, The Attack on the
American Auto Parts Industry a Call for Action, http://americanmanufacturing.org/files/Auto%20Parts
%20White%20Paper%20Final.pdf
Earlier, this paper discussed the degree to which the fates of auto assembly and auto parts production are
intertwined. The disruption caused by unfair Chinese practices has caused a break in that relationship in the
U.S., because the advantages the Chinese products receive make them all-but-impossible to resist to the U.S. automakers. The next step in this
process is as predictable as it is dangerous to the U.S. economy. As the American auto parts sector decays, it will only
make sense to the automakers to further offshore assembly to places like China and Mexico, the better to
make use of the parts sectors that still exist. As the Chinese parts industry continues to displace the American parts
industry, it is easy to extrapolate how the assembly industry will follow. After the extraordinary efforts that the U.S.
has taken in order to keep domestic automakers afloat, it is unconscionable that we should let them slip away by allowing the domestic supply
chain to wither. The U.S. is not the only nation that has a large, important auto industry. Since China is engaging in such a massive effort to
dominate the auto and auto parts market, it is instructive to look at how this is affecting the other major auto producing nations. Were Chinas

rise in this industry inevitable, one would expect to see other autoproducing nations in a predicament similar to Americas,
running huge and rising trade deficits in autos and auto parts with China.

Decline in market parity between China and the U.S. would cause U.S.-China war.
Walter R. Mead, March/April 2004, Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations, America's
STICKY Power, Foreign Policy, Lexis Nexis
Similarly, in the last 60 years, as foreigners have acquired a greater value in the United States-government and private bonds, direct and portfolio
private China's rise to global prominence will offer a key test case for sticky power. As China develops

economically, it should gain wealth that could support a military rivaling that of the U nited S tates;
China is also gaining political influence in the world. Some analysts in both China and the United States believe that the laws of
history mean that Chinese power will someday clash with the reigning U.S. power. Sticky power offers
a way out. China benefits from participating in the U.S. economic system and integrating itself into the global economy. Between 1970 and
2003, China's gross domestic product grew from an estimated $106 billion to more than $1.3 trillion. By 2003, an estimated $450 billion of
foreign money had flowed into the Chinese economy. Moreover, China is becoming increasingly dependent on both

imports and exports to keep its economy (and its military machine) going. Hostilities between the United States and China
would cripple China's industry, and cut off supplies of oil and other key commodities. Sticky power works both ways, though. If China cannot
afford war with the United States, the United States will have an increasingly hard time breaking off commercial relations with China. In an

era of w eapons of m ass d estruction, this mutual dependence is probably good for both sides. Sticky power did
not prevent World War I, but economic interdependence runs deeper now; as a result, the
"inevitable" U.S.-Chinese conflict is less likely to occur.

ATs

AT Alt Cause: Oil

Oil prices steadily dropping and are lowest since August
Mark Shenk - Sep 25, 2012 3:47 PM GMT-0500 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-25/oil-climbs-ashome-prices-in-u-s-increase.html Reporter for Bloomberg News A massive data stream, unparalleled in scope and
depth, delivered to your desktop in real time. Along with data, the Bloomberg Professional provides access to all
the news, analytics, communications, charts, liquidity, functionalities and execution services that you need to put
knowledge into action.
Oil fell to a seven-week low as Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said a new
stimulus program probably wont boost growth. Prices dropped 0.6 percent after Plosser said bond buying
announced by the Fed probably wont spur expansion or hiring. Futures surged to a 2012 high of $100.42 a barrel on
Sept. 14, a day after the Federal Open Market Committee said it will undertake a third round of quantitative easing.
Worries about the economy and our ability to grow have been weighing on the market, said John Kilduff, a partner
at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based energy hedge fund. Weve fallen quite a bit from $100 on concern that
quantitative easing wont be enough. Crude oil for November delivery dropped 56 cents to $91.37 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Aug. 2. The contract rose to
$93.20 earlier. Prices are down 7.5 percent this year. Prices were little changed after the industry-funded
American Petroleum Institute reported oil inventories increased 335,000 barrels to 361.8 million last week. Futures
fell $1.19, or 1.3 percent, to $90.74 a barrel at 4:45 p.m. Prices were at $90.96 before the report was released at 4:30
p.m. Brent for November settlement rose 64 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $110.45 a barrel on the London-based ICE
Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grades premium to West Texas Intermediate widened to
$19.08, the most since Aug. 16.

Oil prices dropping- demand to low

Claudia Assis and Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch Sept. 25, 2012, 5:32 p.m. EDT
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-rebound-in-electronic-trading-2012-09-24 Claudia Assis is a San
Francisco-based reporter for MarketWatch. Sara Sjolin is a MarketWatch reporter, based in London. Virginia
Harrison in Sydney contributed to this report.
Crude for November delivery CLX2 -0.54% declined 56 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $91.37 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. That was oils lowest settlement since Aug. 2. Oil traded higher earlier
Tuesday as geopolitical tensions and relatively positive U.S. macroeconomic data boosted prices. Charles Plosser,
president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, said the Fed may have to raise short-term interest rates well before
the current mid-2015 target. In addition, Plosser, widely seen as a hawk, criticized the latest round of bond purchases
and said further easing was unlikely to be effective. See: Feds Plosser slams QE3. Casting doubt on QE3 seemed
to spark a rally in the U.S. dollar index...that led to renewed investor selling in most commodities, said Darin
Newsom, senior analyst at Telvent DTN. All in all, volume seems to be light in most markets, so it
doesnt take much to turn them one way or the other. Crude and other commodity prices took a tumble
after Plossers comments. The dollar pared some of its losses as well, then turned higher, providing an extra squeeze
for dollar-denominated commodities such as oil. See more on dollar action as Plosser questions QE3. Demand for
oil is still too weak to justify higher prices, said James Cordier, a portfolio manager with Optionsellers.com in
Florida. A lot of the easy money in oil has been made already, he said. The uptick for the dollar was
the excuse some needed to sell oil and realize some quick profit s, he said. Oil had lost ground on Monday
as European debt anxiety resurfaced and oil ended at a seven-week low. Prices have lost 1.6% over the two days.

AT Alt Cause: Steel

Turn- Auto key to steel industry
Agence France Presse, 09 (Global steel industry awaits China, US auto turnaround, April 12, Lexis)
Steel is on edge and the global industry is cutting back hard, hanging on for either a budget blast from China, new credit for vast
Middle Eastern building schemes or resurrection of the US auto industry. Demand has dwindled and steelmakers,
notably the giant of them all, ArcelorMittal, are damping down surplus furnace capacity while waiting for credit to flow, construction
cranes to turn and factories to roll. A decision by ArcelorMittal last week to pursue temporary production cutbacks, slashing European output by
more than half from the end of April according to a union source, dramatises the extraordinary ride and role of steel in the last few years. In just
months the global industry has gone from a boom driven largely by China, emerging markets and a property extravaganza in the Middle East to a
narrow line between excess capacity and the costs of waiting for recovery. " Over the past six months, demand for steel has

dropped dramatically and, as a result, producers have been cutting production, " analysts at Barclays Capital said in a
study last week. In another report, Morgan Stanley predicted "the current demand shock to lead to excess steel capacity."
Consequently, the bank said, steel plants should operate at rates below 75 percent of capacity until 2012 .
"The steel market is not very different from base metals as a whole, but steel has reacted more rapidly and dramatically since September," said
commodities analyst Perrine Faye of London-based FastMarkets. She said the future of the steel industry depended on three
factors -- the impact of Chinese economic stimulus efforts, a pick-up in the Middle East construction sector and a

revival of the once

mighty US auto industry.

"Chinese imports and exports are at a standstill. Everyone is waiting for the Chinese stimulus package to see
if it will revive demand." The Chinese government last month announced a four-trillion-yuan (580-billion-dollar) package of measures that it
said could contribute 1.5 to 1.9 percent to the country's economic growth. Industry experts have meanwhile spoken optimistically of China's
prospects. Thomas Albanese, chief executive at steel maker Rio Tinto, said earlier this year that the company foresaw "a short, sharp slowdown
in China, with demand rebounding over the course of 2009, as the fundamentals of Chinese economic growth remain sound." Analysts have said
steel inventories are falling in China in anticipation of projects expected to emerge from the country's huge stimulus package. "It is encouraging
that the inventory of steel products, especially long products, which are mostly used in construction projects, have started to fall (since the end of
March), likely suggesting that end-demand is gathering momentum," Frank Gong, a Hong Kong-based economist for JPMorgan, wrote in a
research note. On-the-ground evidence suggested that the Chinese industry had been re-stocking in the first two months of the year, followed by
a pause in March before major infrastructure projects were expected to start in the second quarter, Gong wrote. In the Middle East, according to
Faye, the big problem is a shortage of credit, notably for real estate developers and builders. Construction planners had "counted on a higher
price for oil and on credit to finance their huge projects." In addition, demand for such facilities, especially in the Gulf, has died. "They were
hoping that Americans and Europeans would buy apartments. But property prices have collapsed in the Middle East as well." In the United Arab
Emirates more than half the building projects, worth 582 billion dollars or 45 per cent of the total value of the construction sector, have been put
on hold, a study by Dubai-based market research group Proleads found in February. In Dubai, one of the states of the UAE, prices in the real
estate sector have slumped by an average of 25 percent from their peak in September after rallying 79 percent in the 18 months to July 2008,
according to Morgan Stanley. Faye said the fate of the steel sector was in addition tied to that of the struggling US

auto industry, once a thriving steel market but one in which two of its giant players, General Motors and
Chrysler, are staring at bankruptcy. The two companies are currently limping along thanks to billions of
dollars in government aid. "We are waiting to see if the auto sector in the US will get out of the crisis
intact," she said.

Buy America provisions mean steel is produced in the US

Department of Transportation 10 (Current list of provisions of the Buy America Act, 14 December 2010,
http://www.dot.gov/buyamerica/buy_america_.pdf)

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, Section 1605 Buy American (100% Domestic Content of items
below) Buy American The Recovery Act prohibits use of recovery funds for a project for the construction, alteration,
maintenance, or repair of a public building or public work unless all of the iron, steel, and manufactured goods used in
the project are produced in the United States. Waivers The head of the Federal department or agency finds that: (1) It would
be inconsistent with the public interest; (2) Iron, steel, and the relevant manufactured goods are not produced in the United States in sufficient and
reasonably available quantities and of a satisfactory quality; or (3) Inclusion of iron, steel, or manufactured goods produced in the United States
will increase the cost of the overall project by more than 25 percent. Other There are provisions in the Recovery Act for the Federal Aviation
Administration, Federal Transit Administration, Federal Railroad Administration, and Federal Highway Administration to apply their own grant
requirements, including Buy America(n). All waivers have to be posted in Federal Register. U.S. international obligations (World Trade
Organization Government Procurement Agreement, U.S. Free Trade Agreements, U.S.-EC Exchange of Letters [May 15, 1995], and Canada-U.S.
Agreement on Government Procurement) apply. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) 49 U.S.C. 50101 Buy American

will not obligate any funds

authorized to be appropriated for any project unless steel and manufactured products used in such
projects are produced in the United States. Waivers The Administrator has delegated authority to grant waivers to this
(see discretionary waiver when 60% Domestic Content of items below) Buy American The FAA

requirement to Director of Acquisition and Contracting; Regional Administrators; and Center Directors upon finding that compliance with the Act
would: (1) It would be inconsistent with the public interest; (2) The steel and goods produced in the United States are not produced in a sufficient
and reasonably available amount or are not of a satisfactory quality; (3) When procuring a facility or equipment under the Airport and Airway
Improvement Act of 1982: (A) the cost of components and subcomponents produced in the United States is more than 60 percent of the cost of all
components of the facility or equipment; and (B) final assembly of the facility or equipment has occurred in the United States; or (4) Including
domestic material will increase the cost of the overall project by more than 25 percent. Other Labor costs involved in final assembly are not
included in calculating the cost of components. U.S. international obligations (World Trade Organization Government Procurement Agreement,
U.S. Free Trade Agreements, U.S.-EC Exchange of Letters [May 15, 1995], and Canada-U.S. Agreement on Government Procurement) do not
apply. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) 23 U.S.C. 313 Buy America; 23 C.F.R. 635.410 (100% Domestic

shall not obligate any funds unless steel, iron, and

manufactured products used in such project are produced in the United States. Applies to iron and
steel products and their coatings that are to be permanently incorporated into the project. The FHWA,
Content of items below) Buy America The Secretary of Transportation

in its 1983 rulemaking, determined that Buy America did not apply to raw materials and waived its application to manufactured products,
although in the statute, based on the public interest. Lack of adequate domestic supply resulted in a 1995 nationwide waiver for iron ore, pig iron,
and reduced/processed/pelletized iron ore. In 1994, a nationwide waiver for specific ferryboat parts came into effect. Waivers The Secretary of
Transportation may waive the requirement if the Secretary finds that: (1) It would be inconsistent with the public interest; (2) Such materials and
products are not produced in the United States in sufficient and reasonably available quantities and of a satisfactory quality; or (3) Inclusion of
domestic material will increase the cost of the overall project contract by more than 25 percent (this is a standing waiver codified in regulations
when alternate bidding procedures are used). Other Labor costs involved in final assembly are not included in calculating the cost of components.
All waivers have to be posted in Federal Register. All proposed waivers are first posted on the FHWAs website for a 15-day comment period
prior to publishing the final decision in the Federal Register. U.S. international obligations (World Trade Organization Government Procurement
Agreement, U.S. Free Trade Agreements, U.S.-EC Exchange of Letters [May 15, 1995], and Canada-U.S. Agreement on Government
Procurement) do not apply. Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) High Speed Rail Program 49 U.S.C. Chapters 244, 246;

may obligate funds for

a project only if the steel, iron, and manufactured goods used in the project are produced in the
United States. Waivers The Secretary of Transportation may waive the requirement if the Secretary finds that: (1) It would be inconsistent
24405 Buy America (100% Domestic Content of items below) Buy America The Secretary of Transportation

with the public interest; (2) The steel, iron, and goods produced in the United States are not produced in a sufficient and reasonably available
amount or are not of a satisfactory quality; (3) Rolling stock or power train equipment cannot be bought and delivered in the United States within
a reasonable time; or (4) Including domestic material will increase the cost of the overall project by more than 25 percent. Other The
requirements only apply to projects for which the costs exceed $100,000. Labor costs involved in final assembly are not included in calculating
the cost of components. All waivers have to be posted in Federal Register. U.S. international obligations (World Trade Organization Government
Procurement Agreement, U.S. Free Trade Agreements, U.S.-EC Exchange of Letters [May 15, 1995], and Canada-U.S. Agreement on
Government Procurement) do not apply. National Railroad Passenger Corporation (AMTRAK) 49 U.S.C. 24305

shall buy only: (A) unmanufactured articles, material, and supplies

mined or produced in the United States; or (B) manufactured articles, material, and supplies
manufactured in the United States substantially from articles, material, and supplies mined,
produced, or manufactured in the United States. Waivers The Secretary may exempt Amtrak from this subsection if the
Domestic Buying Preferences Amtrak

Secretary decides that: (A) for particular articles, material, or supplies-(i) the requirements are inconsistent with the public interest; (ii) the cost of
imposing those requirements is unreasonable; or (iii) the articles, material, or supplies, or the articles, material, or supplies from which they are
manufactured, are not mined, produced, or manufactured in the United States in sufficient and reasonably available commercial quantities and are
not of a satisfactory quality; or (B) rolling stock or power train equipment cannot be bought and delivered in the United States within a reasonable
time. Other The requirements apply only when the cost of those articles, material, or supplies bought is at least $1 million. Federal Transit

Administration (FTA) 49 U.S.C. 5323(j); 49 C.F.R. Part 661 (Buy America Requirements); (See 60% Domestic Content for buses
and other Rolling Stock) Buy America No funds may be obligated by FTA for a grantee project unless all iron,
steel, and manufactured products used in the project are produced in the United States. Waivers The
Administrator may waive the general requirements if the Administrator finds that: (1) It would be inconsistent with the public interest; (2) The
materials for which a waiver is requested are not produced in the United States in sufficient and reasonably available quantities and of a
satisfactory quality; (3) The inclusion of a domestic item or domestic material will increase the cost of the contract between the grantee and its
supplier of that item or material by more than 25 percent. Rolling stock procurements (a) The Buy America prov isions do not apply to the
procurement of buses and other rolling stock (including train control, communication, and traction power equipment), if the cost of components
produced in the United States is more than 60 percent of the cost of all components and final assembly takes place in the United States. Other
Labor costs involved in final assembly are not included in calculating the cost of components. Post only public interest waivers in Federal
Register. U.S. international obligations (World Trade Organization Government Procurement Agreement, U.S. Free Trade Agreements, U.S.-EC
Exchange of Letters [May 15, 1995], and Canada-U.S. Agreement on Government Procurement) do not apply.

Steel is not critical to auto industry, its the other way around
John Hall September 09, 2012 at 11:30 AM John Hall is a freelance writer who reports on commodities
markets and procurement and supply management topics for My Purchasing
Centerhttp://www.mypurchasingcenter.com/commodities/commodities-articles/steel-price-forecast-for2013/

Even though it is dwarfed by construction, the U.S. auto industrys comeback has been a bright spot on
the horizon for the steel business, according to Kavanagh at the Steel Market Development Institute. It

doesnt hurt that the industry is a favored user of domestic steel.

Auto industry reducing steel use

John Hall September 09, 2012 at 11:30 AM John Hall is a freelance writer who reports on commodities
markets and procurement and supply management topics for My Purchasing
Centerhttp://www.mypurchasingcenter.com/commodities/commodities-articles/steel-price-forecast-for2013/
In fact, most foreign car makers are moving away from imported steel , according to Anton. Around
2000, North America production levels for light-duty vehicles was at about 16 million per year. It
slowly declined to about 15 million. By 2009, it plunged to about 8.6 million. In 2012, the domestic
auto industry is projected to produce about 14 million light duty vehicles. Unfortunately, other steelhungry industries arent rebounding as well. Today, appliances are only being bought when the old ones break,
Anton says. The appliances wont come back until people have enough disposable income to do remodeling, etc.
That could change in the next few years as aging appliances reach their useful lifetimes.

AT Automobility Bad
Turn- Automobility inevitable and critical to human automony
Justin Good, Cummings & Good Design, This essay was presented at the International Society for
Universal Dialogue Sixth World Congress, NO DATE, Ecology, Freedom and Automobility,
www.engr.uconn.edu/.../Automobility%20Justin%20Good.doc
The experience of driving is an experience of liberation most obviously because of the connection
between being free and being mobile and self-directed. These connections are rooted deeply in our
biology and our concept of freedom as autonomy, or self-rule. At the most primal level,
automobility answers to the same biological impulse that drives a crawling infant across the floor .
Any technology which satisfies a biologically-predisposed interest of ours is going to be felt as
liberating. The interest is related to the kinetic pleasure we feel in speeding down the highway, and the
feeling of power and control that operating a car can give. More importantly, the mobility which cars
enhance illustrates our concept of freedom as autonomy due to the ways in which cars give us new
choices and options for movement. In a defense of automobility as an intrinsic ethical good , Loren
Lomasky argues that automobility essentially complements human autonomy : In the latter part of the
twentieth century, being a self-mover entails, to a significant extent, being a motorist. Because we
have cars we can, more than any other people in history, choose where we will live and where we will
work, and separate these choices from each other. We can more easily avail ourselves of near and
distant pleasures, at a scheduled tailored to individual preferences. In our choice of friends and
associates, we are less constrained by accidents of geographical proximity. In our comings and
goings, we depend less on the concurrence of others.

Turn- The car is crucial to equality it provides mobility which would otherwise be
monopolized by the aristocracy
Sam Kazman, 29 September 2005, general counsel of the Competitive Enterprise Institute,
Automobility and Freedom,
http://www.freedomadvocates.org/articles/legitimate_government/automobility_and_freedom_200509301
37/
A century and a half ago, the legal scholar Sir Henry Maine observed that the evolution of human
society was a movement from a society of status towards a society of contract. In traditional society,
what you were depended on the circumstances of your birth. Born a serf, you remained a serf all your
life. Born an aristocrat, you remained an aristocrat all your life. Modern society, however, is a
society of contract, in which what you can become depends upon what you can do. In a similar way, I
think, much of our recent history has involved not just evolutionary movement, but also literal movement.
We've become a society of far greater physical movement. Traditionally, for most people, where you
lived depended upon where you born. Aristocrats, of course, have always been able to get around,
but that was a freedom common people did not previously enjoy. What is new in this century, as a
result of the automobile, is that physical mobility has become accessible to just about everyone who
is free.

Turn- The car is a liberating, ethical machine

Sam Kazman, 29 September 2005, general counsel of the Competitive Enterprise Institute,
Automobility and Freedom,
http://www.freedomadvocates.org/articles/legitimate_government/automobility_and_freedom_200509301
37/

My essential theme is that the car is just not another consumer item, and not just a very important
consumer item; rather, that it is something incredibly special, something that ranks with only a
handful of other technologies that can truly be said to have liberated mankind . In a sense, the car
is morally different from most other consumer goods. It has a major ethical dimension, and that is
something we are losing sight of. Moreover, it is this special moral feature that accounts for the
increasing barrage of ideological attacks on the car.

Turn- Attacks on the car are a worship of government control

P.J. ORourke is a correspondent for The Atlantic, the H.L. Mencken Research Fellow at the Cato
Institute, a contributor to magazines ranging from Rolling Stone to The American Spectator, Nov . 2009,
Driven Crazy, http://reason.com/archives/2009/11/03/driven-crazy
Why do politicians love trains? Because they can tell where the tracks go. They know where
everybodys going. Its all about control. It is all about power . Politics itself is nothing but an
attempt to achieve power and prestige without merit. That is the definition of politics. Politicians
hate cars . They have always hated cars, because cars make people free. Not only free in the sense
that they can go anywhere they want, which bugs politicians in the first place, but they can move
out of the political district that the politician represents .

AT Oil Lobbies
Turn- U.S. auto industry backed by three major environmental organizations
NRDC Published August 9, 2012 07:09 AM http://www.enn.com/business/article/44779 The Natural Resources
Defense Council (NRDC) is an international nonprofit environmental organization with more than 1.3 million
members and online activists. Since 1970, our lawyers, scientists, and other environmental specialists have worked
to protect the world's natural resources, public health, and the environment. NRDC has offices in New York City,
Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Livingston, Montana, and Beijing.
With the launch of new federal vehicle fuel economy rules only about one week away, the American auto

industry has grown by nearly a quarter million jobs (236,600) since June 2009 when the auto
industry hit bottom, according to a new report available from DrivingGrowth.org. The report from
DrivingGrowth.org (http://www.DrivingGrowth.org) finds that fuel efficiency is a major factor behind the gains in
U.S. auto jobs. A website that tracks the revitalization of the U.S. auto industry , DrivingGrowth.org is
sponsored by three leading U.S. environmental organizations: The Natural Resources Defense Council,
the National Wildlife Federation, and the Michigan League of Conservation Voters Education Fund.

Manufacturing of motor vehicle and parts has grown by 165,100, or 26.4 percent since June 2009.
Another 71,500 jobs have been added at U.S. auto dealerships. Automakers, their suppliers and
their dealers are now looking ahead to a brighter future after the dark days of the recession .
Examples of how fuel-efficiency standards are accelerating the auto industrys recovery in the U.S. include the
following: Michigan -- 35,200 new auto manufacturing jobs since June 2009 when the auto industry hit bottom,
accounting for half of the states total job gains over the same period. In Saginaw, Michigan, for example,
automotive supplier has added 650 jobs and will retain an additional 1,000 jobs for production of electric power
steering components (EPS) for U.S.-made pickup trucks. EPS, which replaces a more fuel intensive hydraulic
system, can boost fuel economy by 4-6percent on a typical vehicle. Indiana -- 19,800 new auto manufacturing jobs
since June 2009 when the auto industry hit bottom, accounting for over one third of the states total job gains over
the same period. In Greensburg, Indiana, Honda is investing $40 million and will hire 300 new workers as its
Indiana facility becomes the sole global producer of the fuel-efficient Honda Civic hybrid. It will be exported to
markets around the world from Indiana. Ohio -- 11,300 new auto jobs since June 2009 when the auto industry hit
bottom, accounting for one quarter of the state's total job gains over the same period. In Warren, Ohio, General
Motors is running three shifts at its Lordstown Assembly plant, adding 1,200 jobs and employing 4,200 total
workers to produce the high-mileage Chevy Cruze, which achieves 42 miles per gallon (MPG) in the EcoCruze
model. "Setting strong fuel efficiency standards means we are sending more of our energy dollars to

the Midwest, not the Middle East" said Tiffany Ingram, Midwest advocacy director for NRDC.
"Global automakers are now sourcing their most advanced, high-tech manufacturing here in the
United States, creating a more sustainable and secure future for U.S. industry and U.S. workers."

Oil Lobbies influence weakened, Keystone Pipeline proves

Tapper et al 12 (Jake Tapper, Kirit Radia, John Parkinson, Devin Dwyer, Staff Writers, Jan. 18, 2012,
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/president-obama-rejects-keystone-xl-pipeline/story?
id=15387980#.T-4peuZOxJM President Obama Rejects Keystone XL Pipeline)
The Obama administration today formally rejected a bid by Canadian energy company TransCanada to build a $7
billion oil pipeline linking the tar sands of Alberta to refineries on the Gulf of Mexico. The Keystone
XL project, which was estimated to create thousands of U.S. jobs, became an election-year lightning
rod, embroiling President Obama, congressional Republicans, labor unions and interest groups in a
heated debate over jobs and the environment. The State Department, which holds the authority to approve or reject pipelines
that cross an international boundary, said in November that it would delay a decision on Keystone to allow for further study of the environmental
impact along its 1,700-mile route. Then in December, Congress tried to force the president to make a decision proposal within two months,
tucking the mandate into the payroll tax cut bill that Obama ultimately signed into law. But the president said today in a statement that the
congressionally imposed deadline did not provide adequate time for the State Department to finish a customary review of the pipeline's route
through six states. "The rushed and arbitrary deadline insisted on by Congressional Republicans

prevented a full assessment of the pipeline's impact, especially the health and safety of the
American people, as well as our environment ," Obama said. "As a result, the secretary of state has recommended that the

application be denied. And after reviewing the State Department's report, I agree." Administration officials say the decision effectively hits the
reset button on a review process that has been underway for several years, but does not preclude TransCanada from resubmitting a proposal for
reconsideration. "While we are disappointed, TransCanada remains fully committed to the construction of Keystone XL," TransCanada president
and CEO Russ Girling said in a statement. "Plans are already underway on a number of fronts to largely maintain the construction schedule of the
project. We will re-apply for a Presidential Permit and expect a new application would be processed in an expedited manner to allow for an inservice date of late 2014," he said. Labor unions, oil industry groups -- even the president's jobs council --

have signaled support for the plan, which also has bipartisan backing on Capitol Hill. But environmental groups
warned it would have a dangerous effect on ecosystems and human health, ratcheting up pressure
on Obama to defer to his progressive base in an election year. "This announcement is not a judgment on the merits of
the pipeline, but the arbitrary nature of a deadline that prevented the State Department from gathering the information necessary to approve the
project and protect the American people," Obama said. Still, news of the rejection quickly sparked condemnation from members of Congress on
both sides of the aisle. House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, who has said pipeline construction would "create 100,000 new jobs," chastised the
president and said delaying the deal means Canadians may do business with China instead. "The president has said he'll do anything that he can
to create jobs. Today that promise was broken," Boehner continued. "The president won't stand up to his political base, even in the name of
creating American jobs." Rep. Joe Donnelly, a Democrat from Indiana, said he is "very disappointed" in the Obama decision. "They are missing
an opportunity to create thousands of jobs in America," he said. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi defended Obama, blaming Republicans for
effectively tying the administration's hands. "If the Republicans cared so much about the Keystone pipeline, they would not have narrowed the
president's options by putting it on the time frame that they did," Pelosi, D-Calif., said. Meanwhile, environmental groups

claimed victory over the oil industry, which had spent millions lobbying intensely for approval of
the pipeline. "The Keystone XL fight was David versus Goliath; no one thought we could win," said
Dan Moglen of Friends of the Earth. The decision shows "sustained grassroots pressure aimed at holding the president
accountable to the public interest proved more powerful than all the lobbyists the oil industry could muster."

US cutting emissions now

Koch, Staff Writer, 11 (Wendy Koch, November 16, 2011,
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2011/11/obama-seeks-to-double-auto-fuelefficiency/1#.T-4nT-ZOxJN Obama seeks to double auto fuel economy by 2025)
In an historic move to boost fuel efficiency, the

Obama administration proposed Wednesday to nearly double the

required miles per gallon for passenger cars and light trucks by 2025.
The formal proposal follows President Obama's agreement with 13 major automakers , announced in July, to
gradually boost these vehicles' fuel economy to the equivalent of 54.5 miles per gallon -- up from the
current standard of 27.3 mpg. Last year, the administration finalized rules to hike the standard to 35.5
mpg by 2016. ""We expect this program will not only save consumers money, it will ensure automakers have the
regulatory certainty they need to make key decisions that create jobs and invest in the future, " U.S.
Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said in a joint announcement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. He said they'll also reduce
U.S. dependence on oil and protect the climate.

AT Environment
Turn- Not allowing the auto industry collapses research and development as well as shortcircuiting energy policies that solve oil dependence.
Detroit News, 11-3-2008, analysts: Big 3 Woes Imperil US economy,
http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081103/AUTO01/811030343
Allowing an automaker to go under would wipe out portions of the supply chain, dragging down
healthy foreign automakers, as well, that would have to scramble to find other suppliers to provide their parts. Automakers also buy
$15 billion a year in advertising, not counting the huge amount dealers spend. Automakers spend more on research and
development than any other industry except the government, about $18.5 billion a year, McAlinden said, with 85
percent of that done in Michigan. Both presidential candidates have energy policies and tax incentives for fuelsaving research that cannot be achieved without a healthy and robust auto industry , CSM's Chesbrough
said. "The auto sector is key to where the country needs to go in the future to reduce oil dependence ," he said.

Oil dependency leads to extinction.

Michael T. Klare, 2008, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, The end
of the world as you know it, http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174919
A growing risk of conflict: Throughout history, major shifts in power have normally been accompanied by violence
-- in some cases, protracted violent upheavals. Either states at the pinnacle of power have struggled to prevent the
loss of their privileged status, or challengers have fought to topple those at the top of the heap. Will that happen now? Will energydeficit states launch campaigns to wrest the oil and gas reserves of surplus states from their control -- the Bush administration's war in Iraq might
already be thought of as one such attempt -- or to eliminate competitors among their deficit-state rivals? The high costs and risks of

modern warfare are well known and there is a widespread perception that energy problems can
best be solved through economic means, not military ones. Nevertheless, the major powers are
employing military means in their efforts to gain advantage in the global struggle for energy , and no
one should be deluded on the subject. These endeavors could easily enough lead to unintended escalation and
conflict. One conspicuous use of military means in the pursuit of energy is obviously the regular transfer of arms and military-support services
by the major energy-importing states to their principal suppliers. Both the United States and China, for example, have stepped up their deliveries
of arms and equipment to oil-producing states like Angola, Nigeria, and Sudan in Africa and, in the Caspian Sea basin, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
and Kyrgyzstan. The United States has placed particular emphasis on suppressing the armed insurgency in the vital Niger Delta region of Nigeria,
where most of the country's oil is produced; Beijing has emphasized arms aid to Sudan, where Chinese-led oil operations are threatened by
insurgencies in both the South and Darfur. Russia is also using arms transfers as an instrument in its efforts to gain influence in the major oil- and
gas-producing regions of the Caspian Sea basin and the Persian Gulf. Its urge is not to procure energy for its own use, but to dominate the flow of
energy to others. In particular, Moscow seeks a monopoly on the transportation of Central Asian gas to Europe via Gazprom's vast pipeline
network; it also wants to tap into Iran's mammoth gas fields, further cementing Russia's control over the trade in natural gas. The danger, of
course, is

that such endeavors, multiplied over time, will provoke regional arms races, exacerbate
regional tensions, and increase the danger of great-power involvement in any local conflicts that
erupt. History has all too many examples of such miscalculations leading to wars that spiral out of
control. Think of the years leading up to World War I. In fact, Central Asia and the Caspian today, with their multiple ethnic disorders and
great-power rivalries, bear more than a glancing resemblance to the Balkans in the years leading up to 1914. What this adds up to is
simple and sobering: the end of the world as you've known it. In the new, energy-centric world we
have all now entered, the price of oil will dominate our lives and power will reside in the hands of those
who control its global distribution. In this new world order, energy will govern our lives in new ways and on
a daily basis. It will determine when, and for what purposes, we use our cars; how high (or low) we turn our thermostats; when, where, or
even if, we travel; increasingly, what foods we eat (given that the price of producing and distributing many meats and vegetables is profoundly
affected by the cost of oil or the allure of growing corn for ethanol); for some of us, where to live; for others, what businesses we engage in; for
all of us, when and under what circumstances we go to war or avoid foreign entanglements that could end in war. This leads to a final
observation: The most pressing decision facing the next president and Congress may be how best to accelerate

the transition from a fossil-fuel-based energy system to a system based on climate-friendly energy alternatives.

Turn- Auto industry creates cleaner environment; spillovers and innovations

WSJ 12 Wall Street Journal PRESS RELEASE June 21, 2012, 8:28 a.m. EDT Environmental and Energy Experts Laud New Auto Enthusiast
Website CarsOfChange.com http://www.marketwatch.com/story/environmental-and-energy-experts-laud-new-auto-enthusiast-websitecarsofchangecom-2012-06-21
"The American public is embracing fuel efficiency and th e auto industry is responding with new

technologies and new vehicles that use less gas, or get us there oil-free ," says Ann Mesnikoff, director of the
Sierra Club's Green Transportation Campaign. "Cars of Change(TM) is the right resource at the right time to help Americans understand these
changes, and to help navigate these changes and make decisions about the best vehicles." Roland Hwang, Transportation Program Director for the
Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), adds: "For too long the auto industry and environmentalists have been at loggerheads. But today,

the U.S. auto industry has become an agent of change for fuel efficiency and clean cars. We have an
unprecedented opportunity to work together to keep this country moving forward on innovation,
jobs, and a cleaner, healthier environment. CarsOfChange.com(TM) can play an important role in conveying how this process
is unfolding through the cars, the technologies, and the dialogues it features."

AT Foreign Cars Fill-In

Foreign cars in the U.S. do not help the American auto sector.
Stephen J. Collins, 5-12-2006, President of Automotive Trade Policy Council, Foreign Auto Parts
Hurting US Industry, Detroit Free Press, http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?
AID=/20060512/OPINION04/605120337/1068/OPINION
I want to commend you for an interesting and informative report: "Foreign? American? Auto parts go global: U.S. cars add content from other
countries" (May 7). The article cited an impressive amount of data on the domestic content of various auto companies. But I do have a problem
with an overall sense a reader may have gotten that there is not much difference between the domestic sourcing of the Detroit-based companies
and that of Japanese auto companies, or that transition is just a healthy restructuring of the business. Using your numbers, the average

joint domestic content of cars and trucks sold in the U nited S tates by GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler
came in just under 80%, compared with 49% overall for Toyota. Far from being unimportant, this
phenomenon is having a huge and destructive impact on the U.S. auto-parts industry and the U.S.
manufacturing base. This difference translates into tens of billions of dollars in contracts and
hundreds of thousands of jobs, or lost jobs, in the U.S. auto-parts industry. It is one major reason for the
intense pressure U.S. auto-parts companies face in today's hypercompetitive U.S. market. Yes, Toyota and the other Japanese companies with
plants in the United States are buying more parts locally. But Japanese automakers are also still exporting more than

million and a half cars and trucks to the U nited S tates every year with essentially zero domestic
content. And the cumulative impact of these trends over the past five to 10 years is creating a deep
and painful hole in the industrial underpinning of the U.S. auto-parts industry. Times are changing.
But some facts remain, and one is that DaimlerChrysler, Ford and GM, by any measure, are still
the backbone of the U.S. auto-parts industry.

AT Globalization
U.S. has the highest-technology for manufacturing; secures future for the U.S. industry
NRDC Published August 9, 2012 07:09 AM http://www.enn.com/business/article/44779 The Natural Resources
Defense Council (NRDC) is an international nonprofit environmental organization with more than 1.3 million
members and online activists. Since 1970, our lawyers, scientists, and other environmental specialists have worked
to protect the world's natural resources, public health, and the environment. NRDC has offices in New York City,
Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Livingston, Montana, and Beijing.
With the launch of new federal vehicle fuel economy rules only about one week away, the American auto

industry has grown by nearly a quarter million jobs (236,600) since June 2009 when the auto
industry hit bottom, according to a new report available from DrivingGrowth.org. The report from
DrivingGrowth.org (http://www.DrivingGrowth.org) finds that fuel efficiency is a major factor behind the gains in
U.S. auto jobs. A website that tracks the revitalization of the U.S. auto industry , DrivingGrowth.org is
sponsored by three leading U.S. environmental organizations: The Natural Resources Defense Council,
the National Wildlife Federation, and the Michigan League of Conservation Voters Education Fund.

Manufacturing of motor vehicle and parts has grown by 165,100, or 26.4 percent since June 2009.
Another 71,500 jobs have been added at U.S. auto dealerships. Automakers, their suppliers and
their dealers are now looking ahead to a brighter future after the dark days of the recession .
Examples of how fuel-efficiency standards are accelerating the auto industrys recovery in the U.S. include the
following: Michigan -- 35,200 new auto manufacturing jobs since June 2009 when the auto industry hit bottom,
accounting for half of the states total job gains over the same period. In Saginaw, Michigan, for example,
automotive supplier has added 650 jobs and will retain an additional 1,000 jobs for production of electric power
steering components (EPS) for U.S.-made pickup trucks. EPS, which replaces a more fuel intensive hydraulic
system, can boost fuel economy by 4-6percent on a typical vehicle. Indiana -- 19,800 new auto manufacturing jobs
since June 2009 when the auto industry hit bottom, accounting for over one third of the states total job gains over
the same period. In Greensburg, Indiana, Honda is investing $40 million and will hire 300 new workers as its
Indiana facility becomes the sole global producer of the fuel-efficient Honda Civic hybrid. It will be exported to
markets around the world from Indiana. Ohio -- 11,300 new auto jobs since June 2009 when the auto industry hit
bottom, accounting for one quarter of the state's total job gains over the same period. In Warren, Ohio, General
Motors is running three shifts at its Lordstown Assembly plant, adding 1,200 jobs and employing 4,200 total
workers to produce the high-mileage Chevy Cruze, which achieves 42 miles per gallon (MPG) in the EcoCruze
model. "Setting strong fuel efficiency standards means we are sending more of our energy dollars to

the Midwest, not the Middle East" said Tiffany Ingram, Midwest advocacy director for NRDC.
"Global automakers are now sourcing their most advanced, high-tech manufacturing here in the
United States, creating a more sustainable and secure future for U.S. industry and U.S. workers."

AT Health/Obesity
Obesity doesnt cause mass death their studies are wrong
Lalasz 05 (Robert, Senior Editor, Will Rising Childhood Obesity Decrease U.S. Life Expectancy?, Population Reference Bureau, May,
http://www.prb.org/Articles/2005/WillRisingChildhoodObesityDecreaseUSLifeExpectancy.aspx?p=1)
Demographers Debate the Limits to Life Expectancy But other demographers

say the Olshansky team's study simplifies the

complex interplay of factors that have fueled 20th century gains in life expectancy in the United States and other
developed countries. These analysts also characterize the study as part of a demographic paradigmassuming a
biological limit to life expectancythat trends since 1950 have cast into doubt. "It's a Malthusian
example of belief in the fixity of nature," says Samuel Preston, professor of demography at the University of Pennsylvania and the
author of a rejoinder to the Olshansky study in the same issue of the New England Journal of Medicine. "Their notion is that we wear out and die
and there's nothing to be done about it. The fact is that we have been very successful at postponing death at older

ages, and other countries have been even more successful. It's obvious that we should expect the life expectancy [82] that Japan has achieved."
"Many demographers now accept that the biological maximum is not so well set," adds Christine Himes, a sociologist at
Syracuse University. "The [survival] curves are now being pushed outmore people are living past 100, and more
past 110. There may be some maximum, but it's pretty far out there, past 120." Preston makes three additional points in
defending conventional life expectancy projections: that decreases in the rate of death at older ages in the
United States have been constant since 1950, that extrapolating from past trends has provided the best forecasts, and
that conventional projections have already incorporated the recent rise in obesity rates. "We should do what we can
to reduce levels of obesity," Preston says. "But there are no long-term studies of the effect of childhood obesity on long-term
mortality. And the claim this is going to offset all the factors working to increase life expectancy and result in a
reduction of life expectancy is inaccurate." Such factors, he says, might include genetic engineering, a continuing decline in the rates of
infectious diseases and smoking, and changes in public behavior, such as increasing condom use among groups hit hardest by HIV/AIDS.
Olshansky, however, argues that future medical advances will principally benefit older people and only incrementally boost life expectancy.
"We've squeezed about as much longevity per person at younger ages through science as we can," he says. "Child obesity will influence early-age
mortality, and therein lies the difference. Any time you get one of these pulse eventswar, influenza, obesity, AIDSit affects early-age
mortality disproportionately." Others dispute the Olshansky study's methods. "Some people have tried to forecast the future of
mortality by getting best guesses for each cause and then trying to assemble them into an overall projection, but that method has never worked
very well," says Richard Suzman, associate director of behavioral and social research at the National Institute on Aging. "The mix of factors at
play is too large, and there's too much interrelation among them." And Himes, who studies the effects of obesity on health and functioning in later
life, says the study has no empirical analysis of the specific effects of childhood obesity. "Olshansky's approach

is pretty simplisticyou can't just extrapolate from current death rates by obesity status," she says. "Those rates
aren't just based on obesity alone, but on other factors as well." The new CDC study has also raised questions
about Olshansky's conclusions. While it says that obesity killed almost 112,000 people in the United States in 2002, it also
concludes that being merely overweight (having a BMI of 25-30) is associated with a lower rate of mortality than that
of underweight people, especially after age 70. But Olshansky is unconvinced that obesity is less of a danger, pointing out that many recent
studies point out what he calls a "startling" rise in diabetes rates.

No scientific evidence for their claims

Basham and Luik 06 (Patrick, Director Democracy Institute, and John, Health Policy Writer, Four Big, Fat Myths, The Telegraph,
11-26, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1535176/Four-big,-fat-myths.html)
Yet the

obesity epidemic is a myth manufactured by public health officials in concert with assorted academics and
preach a sermon consisting of four obesity myths: that we and our children are fat; that
being fat is a certain recipe for early death; that our fatness stems from the manufacturing and marketing practices of the food
special-interest lobbyists. These crusaders

industry (hence Ofcom's recently announced ban on junk food advertising to children); and that we will lengthen our lives if only we eat less and
lose weight. The trouble is, there is no scientific evidence to support these myths . Let's start with the myth

of an epidemic of childhood obesity. The just-published Health Survey for England, 2004 does not show a significant increase in the
weight of children in recent years. The Department of Health report found that from 1995 to 2003 there was only a one-pound increase in
children's average weight. Nor is there any evidence in claims that overweight and obese children are destined to

become overweight and obese adults. The Thousand Families Study has researched 1,000 Newcastle families since 1954.
Researchers have found little connection between overweight children and adult obesity. In the study, four out of
five obese people became obese as adults, not as children. There is not even any compelling scientific evidence to support

the Government's claim that childhood obesity results in long-term health problems and lowers one's life expectancy. In fact, the
opposite may be true: we could be in danger of creating a generation of children obsessed with their weight with the consequent risk of eating
disorders that really do threaten their health. Statistics on the numbers of children with eating disorders are hard to come by, but in the US it is
estimated that 10 per cent of high school pupils suffer from them. Recent studies show adults' attempts to control children's eating habits result in
children eating more rather than less. Parental finger wagging increases the likelihood that children develop body-image problems as well as
eating disorders.

AT HSR Better
Cars are better than the high speed rail environment and efficiency
Levinson 10 Economic Development Impacts of High-speed rail David Levinson May 27, 2010 RP Braun-CTS Chair of Transportation
Engineering; Director of Network, Economics, and Urban Systems Research Group; University of Minnesota, Department of Civil Engineering,
http://nexus.umn.edu/Papers/EconomicDevelopmentImpactsOfHSR.pdf
That said, remember

that real HSR (not the short term improvements to get to 90 or 110 MPH, which may or may not be a good thing,
but are certainly not HSR) is a long term deployment , so it needs to be compared with cars 10 or 20 or 30 years
hence, and the air transportation system over the same period. Cars are getting better from both an environmental
perspective and from the perspective of automation technologies . The DARPA Urban Challenge vehicles need to be
bested to justify HSR. Cars driven by computers, which while sounding far off is technologically quite near, should be able to
attain relatively high speeds (though certainly not HSR speeds in mixed trafc). Further they may move less material per passenger
than HSR (trains are heavy), and so may net less environmental impact if electrically powered . Aviation is improving as well,
both in terms of its environmental impacts and its efciency. Socially-constructed problems like aviation security or congestion can be solved for
far less money than is required for any one high-speed rail line.

AT No Funding Tradeoffs
There are funding tradeoffs for infrastructure
Amekudzi et al 01 PH.D. Transportation Systems (Infrastructure) School of Civil & Envir. Engineering Georgia Institute of
Technology (Adjo, Application of Shortfall Analysis and Markowitz Theory in Investment Tradeoff Analysis for Competing Infrastructure:
Using HERS and NBIAS for Integrated Asset Management, 5th International Conference on Managing Pavements,
http://www.pavementmanagement.org/ICMPfiles/2001087.pdf)
In asset management, we

are concerned with at least four different levels of tradeoff analysis. Three of these are used when we

independently manage different types of infrastructure, for which we are concerned with analyzing tradeoffs to answer the
following questions (2): 1) In what facilities must we invest? 2) When must we invest in these facilities? 3) In what types of improvement actions
must we invest? When we attempt to provide integrated management for non-homogeneous facilities, we are concerned with another important
question: What relative levels of investment should we make in each of the competing facilities (point and
network)? For integrated asset management, this

additional information is necessary to increase (or attempt to maximize) the

the context of constrained budgets. To be more effective therefore, an integrated
asset management system must provide guidance on appropriate levels of investments for competing
infrastructure facilities, for the purpose of maintaining, increasing or maximizing the collective value of these assets over time.
overall value of our collective assets, in

AT U.S. Auto Not Key

US autos key to global market
Vivek Ghosal March 2010 Competition and Innovation in the US Automobile Market
https://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/CFP_CONF/CFP_CONF_2010/Conf-am10-Gollier/Confam10-papers/am10_Ghosal.pdf
The papers central objectives are to examine the nature of competition and innovation in
the US automobile markets over a long period of time, 1969 to recent years. The US has had one
of the highest per capita incomes in the world, a relatively large population, and lack of public

transportation. These factors in combination have resulted in a relatively high demand for
automobiles (currently the US averages about 22% of global sales), and a market where almost
all the major firms in the world seek to compete for market share and profits. The US has also
had a relatively open markets, allowing entry by a wide range of foreign producers. In a sense,

the US market serves as a microcosm of the global automobile market, and the dynamics in
US market have implications for the global industry.
US auto industry bolsters healthy economy- contributes in many ways
Zino 10 (Ken, April 22, The Detroit Bureau, http:/www.thedetroitbureau.com/2010/04/u-s-automobileindustry-makes-500-billion-dollar-contribution-to-the-economy/, U.S. Automobile Industry Makes $500
Billion Dollar Contribution to the Economy, SS)
The U.S. auto industry provides a substantial contribution to U.S. economic health, according to the latest
study released this morning by the Sustainable Transportation and Communities group at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR). The nonprofit research organization looked at the economic and employment impact of automakers , parts suppliers, and

dealerships in contributing to the economies of all 50 states. The automotive industry spends $16 to
$18 billion dollars a year on research and product development, half a trillion dollars on employee
compensation, and is the major leader of the overall manufacturing contribution to the gross
domestic product. It is difficult to imagine manufacturing surviving in this country without the automotive Sector, said Kim Hill, director
of the Sustainable Transportation and Communities group at CAR, and the studys lead. The industrys impact is huge on a
host of other sectors as diverse as raw materials, construction, machinery, legal, computers and
semiconductors, financial, advertising, health care and education. In this time of national introspection concerning
the value of the U.S.-based auto industry, it is clear the value is quite high, Hill said. The study was written by Hill, Deb Menk,
project manager, and Adam Cooper, research associate. The complete study is available at www.cargroup.org. The CAR study results provide
strong evidence of the deep vertical and horizontal integration of the U.S. auto industry with so much of the U.S. economy, said
Sean McAlinden, executive vice president of research and chief economist at CAR. The study also illustrates the high

productivity potential of the U.S. auto industry and the importance of its role in leading the U.S. economy in
the current recovery. This study definitely proves that federal assistance to the industry last year will produce many benefits in jobs,
income, and public revenues for years to come, said McAlinden. For the study, the authors assumed: Vehicle manufacturers (OEM) directly
employed 313,000 people Includes manufacturing, research and development, headquarters, and all other operational activities 686,000

people were employed in the automotive parts sector Includes a percentage employment from rubber, plastics, batteries,
and other non-automotive sectors 737,000 people were employed in the dealer network selling and servicing new vehicles
1,736,000 people were employed in the entire industry The study shows that these 1.7 million direct jobs contribute to an estimated 8 million total
private sector jobs More than $500 billion in annual compensation and More than $70 billion in personal tax revenues Therefore, the employment
multiplier for OEM activities is 10, while the employment multiplier for the entire industry is 4. The Center for Automotive Researchs mission is
to conduct research on significant issues related to the future direction of the global automotive industry, as well as organize and conduct forums
of value to the automotive community. CAR performs numerous studies for federal, state and local governments, corporations, and foundations.
The Sustainable Transportation and Communities group focuses its research on the long-term viability and sustainability of the auto industry, the
surface transportation system, and the communities that lie at the heart of both the industry and the system.

Auto Industry best and fastest internal links to for jobs to grow the econ than any other
type of transportation
MSN 11 (Dee Ann Durbin, Associated Press, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43657765/ns/businessautos/t/auto-industry-seeing-new-life-hiring-spree/#.T-i5LuZOxJM Auto industry, seeing new life, on
hiring spree: Industry growing faster than airplane manufacturers, health care providers, federal
government KA)
Volkswagen opened a plant in Tennessee last month with 2,000 workers. Honda is hiring 1,000 in
Indiana to meet demand for its best-selling Civic. General Motors is looking for 2,500 in Detroit to build the
Chevy Volt. Two years after the end of the Great Recession, the auto industry is hiring again and much faster than the rest
of the economy. As an employer, it's growing faster than airplane manufacturers, shipbuilders, health
care providers and the federal government . The hiring spree is even more remarkable because memories of the U.S. auto
industry's near-death experience are fresh. In 2009, General Motors and Chrysler both got government bailouts and entered
bankruptcy, and auto sales hit a 30-year low. In June of that year, about 623,000 people were employed by the auto
industry in the United States, the fewest since the early 1980s. Now the figure is almost 700,000, a 12 percent
increase. Sales are back up, too, and automakers are hiring by the thousands to meet increased demand. "The
buzz is incredible around here about what opportunity we're going to get if we can build a great product," says Ben Edwards, who went to work
for Volkswagen in Chattanooga, Tenn., last year and is now a team leader on an assembly line that installs tires and seats. Edwards was working
as a general contractor until the housing market dried up. He says the pay at Volkswagen, which starts at $14.50 an hour, is fair and the benefits
are generous. Besides hiring 2,000 people itself, Volkswagen figures the plant, where it will make its new Passat, will create 9,000 spin-off jobs
in the region, including 500 at auto-supplier plants that are springing up nearby. Story: Car shopping that is smart and patriotic Automakers are
hiring again because car sales are rising. Americans bought 10.4 million cars and trucks in 2009 and 11.6 million

in 2010. This year, they're on track to buy 13 million or more, and auto companies are adding shifts to meet the demand. "Everybody got so
lean and mean during the downturn that they're trying to rebuild staff," says Charles Chesbrough, a senior economist with IHS Automotive. The
auto industry's 12 percent increase in jobs compares with a 0.2 percent gain for the economy as a
whole, excluding farming and adjusted for seasonal variation, since June 2009. The Labor Department reports Friday on jobs gained or lost last
month. In a normal economic recovery, improvement in the housing market leads the way by creating construction jobs. But home prices haven't
stopped falling, and the construction industry has shed 8 percent of its workers since June 2009 474,000 jobs in all. The gains in the

auto industry have been small by comparison. But they do create positive ripple effects for the
economy. The Center for Automotive Research estimates that every new auto manufacturing job
leads to nine other jobs from parts makers to restaurants that feed autoworkers. Story: Gas prices hit a
sweet spot for US automakers The auto gains have been widespread, with the Midwest the biggest beneficiary. In Ohio alone, auto manufacturing
jobs have risen 31 percent the past two years, while parts makers in Michigan have added nearly 20,000 jobs. Parts jobs are also up 15 percent in
Alabama, where workers make parts for Mercedes SUVs and Honda minivans, and in Kentucky, where the Chevrolet Corvette and Toyota Camry
are made. Before the turnaround, new auto jobs were scarce. Detroit's auto companies had too many factories, high wages and bloated
bureaucratic management. Jobs began disappearing in 2006 and 2007 as U.S. automakers tried desperately to restructure. Dozens of auto
suppliers were pushed into bankruptcy. Then came 2008, when gas prices spiked and the financial crisis struck. The industry lost almost one in
every four of its jobs. By the time GM and Chrysler got out of bankruptcy, in June 2009, the industry employed about half as many people as it
did in 2000. Sales and profits have risen ever since, and payrolls have followed. GM, Ford and Chrysler are all making

money for the first time since the mid-2000s and adding workers to build popular models like the revamped Ford Explorer.
Foreign companies, stung by the high cost of exporting cars to the U.S. when the dollar is weak, are racing to build more products here. Story:
'Have a leather recliner; I need to talk to my manager'

AT Urban Sprawl
Turn- The car is crucial to equality it provides mobility which would otherwise be
monopolized by the aristocracy
Sam Kazman, 29 September 2005, general counsel of the Competitive Enterprise Institute,
Automobility and Freedom,
http://www.freedomadvocates.org/articles/legitimate_government/automobility_and_freedom_200509301
37/
A century and a half ago, the legal scholar Sir Henry Maine observed that the evolution of human
society was a movement from a society of status towards a society of contract. In traditional society,
what you were depended on the circumstances of your birth. Born a serf, you remained a serf all your
life. Born an aristocrat, you remained an aristocrat all your life. Modern society, however, is a
society of contract, in which what you can become depends upon what you can do. In a similar way, I
think, much of our recent history has involved not just evolutionary movement, but also literal movement.
We've become a society of far greater physical movement. Traditionally, for most people, where you
lived depended upon where you born. Aristocrats, of course, have always been able to get around,
but that was a freedom common people did not previously enjoy. What is new in this century, as a
result of the automobile, is that physical mobility has become accessible to just about everyone who
is free.

Turn- The car is a liberating, ethical machine

Sam Kazman, 29 September 2005, general counsel of the Competitive Enterprise Institute,
Automobility and Freedom,
http://www.freedomadvocates.org/articles/legitimate_government/automobility_and_freedom_200509301
37/
My essential theme is that the car is just not another consumer item, and not just a very important
consumer item; rather, that it is something incredibly special, something that ranks with only a
handful of other technologies that can truly be said to have liberated mankind . In a sense, the car
is morally different from most other consumer goods. It has a major ethical dimension, and that is
something we are losing sight of. Moreover, it is this special moral feature that accounts for the
increasing barrage of ideological attacks on the car.

Turn- Attacks on the car are a worship of government control

P.J. ORourke is a correspondent for The Atlantic, the H.L. Mencken Research Fellow at the Cato
Institute, a contributor to magazines ranging from Rolling Stone to The American Spectator, Nov . 2009,
Driven Crazy, http://reason.com/archives/2009/11/03/driven-crazy
Why do politicians love trains? Because they can tell where the tracks go. They know where
everybodys going. Its all about control. It is all about power . Politics itself is nothing but an
attempt to achieve power and prestige without merit. That is the definition of politics. Politicians
hate cars . They have always hated cars, because cars make people free. Not only free in the sense
that they can go anywhere they want, which bugs politicians in the first place, but they can move
out of the political district that the politician represents .

Cars dont cause a urban sprawl

Sam Kazman, 29 September 2005, general counsel of the Competitive Enterprise Institute,
Automobility and Freedom,
http://www.freedomadvocates.org/articles/legitimate_government/automobility_and_freedom_200509301
37/
There's is a myth that urban sprawl, and the popularity of the vehicles that make it possible, are the
fault of General Motors' destruction of urban transit systems. The claim is that GM bought up the
rights to produce electric buses and then switched everyone into cars. But if you go back to the history
of that epitome of automobile life, Los Angeles, it indicates something quite different. When the car
was first introduced, Los Angeles already had what was probably the best, most extensive public
transit system in the world. It had trolleys going into just about every neighborhood. What happened
when cars came? People found that cars were incredibly more convenient than trolleys. It wasn't
that GM or the auto industry connived to kill the trolley . LA residents, who were well served by
public transit, had a huge preference for the car. It wasn't the car that kept the trolley out; it was that
the trolley couldn't compete with the car.