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While neoclassical growth model redirects here, it may 1.2 Short-run implications
also refer to the RamseyCassKoopmans model.
In the short run, growth is determined by moving to the
The SolowSwan model is an exogenous growth new steady state which is created only from the change
model, an economic model of long-run economic growth in the capital investment, labor force growth and depreset within the framework of neoclassical economics. It ciation rate. The change in the capital investment is from
attempts to explain long-run economic growth by look- the change in the savings rate.
ing at capital accumulation, labor or population growth,
and increases in productivity, commonly referred to
as technological progress. At its core is a neoclassical aggregate production function, usually of a Cobb
Douglas type, which enables the model to make contact with microeconomics.[1]:26 The model was developed independently by Robert Solow and Trevor Swan in
1956,[2][3] and superseded the post-Keynesian Harrod
Domar model. Due to its particularly attractive mathematical characteristics, SolowSwan proved to be a convenient starting point for various extensions. For instance, in 1965, David Cass and Tjalling Koopmans
integrated Frank Ramseys analysis of consumer optimization, thereby endogenizing the savings ratesee the
RamseyCassKoopmans model.
Background
1.4 Assumptions
1.1
Extension
model
to
the
1
of output. However, in this case, per-capita output grows Y (t) = K(t) (A(t)L(t))
at the rate of technological progress in the steady-state where t denotes time, 0 < < 1 is the elasticity of
(that is, the rate of productivity growth).
output with respect to capital, and Y (t) represents total
production. A refers to labor-augmenting technology or
knowledge, thus AL represents eective labor. All fac1.5 Variations in the eects of productivity tors of production are fully employed, and initial values
A(0) , K(0) , and L(0) are given. The number of workIn the Solow-Swan model the unexplained change in the
ers, i.e. labor, as well as the level of technology grow
growth of output after accounting for the eect of capiexogenously at rates n and g , respectively:
tal accumulation is called the Solow residual. This residual measures the exogenous increase in total factor productivity (TFP) during a particular time period. The inL(t) = L(0)ent
crease in TFP is often attributed entirely to technological
progress, but it also includes any permanent improvement A(t) = A(0)egt
in the eciency with which factors of production are
The number of eective units of labor, A(t)L(t) , therecombined over time. Implicitly TFP growth includes any
fore grows at rate (n + g) . Meanwhile, the stock of cappermanent productivity improvements that result from
ital depreciates over time at a constant rate . However,
improved management practices in the private or public
only a fraction of the output ( cY (t) with 0 < c < 1 ) is
sectors of the economy. Paradoxically, even though TFP
consumed, leaving a saved share s = 1c for investment:
growth is exogenous in the model, it cannot be observed,
so it can only be estimated in conjunction with the simultaneous estimate of the eect of capital accumulation on
K(t) = s Y (t) K(t)
growth during a particular time period.
dK(t)
The model can be reformulated in slightly dierent ways where K is shorthand for dt , the derivative with reusing dierent productivity assumptions, or dierent spect to time. Derivative with respect to time means that
it is the change in capital stockoutput that is neither
measurement metrics:
consumed nor used to replace worn-out old capital goods
Average Labor Productivity (ALP) is economic out- is net investment.
put per labor hour.
Since the production function Y (K, AL) has constant
it can be written as output per eective
Multifactor productivity (MFP) is output divided by returns to scale,
[note 1]
unit
of
labour:
a weighted average of capital and labor inputs. The
weights used are usually based on the aggregate input shares either factor earns. This ratio is often
Y (t)
= k(t)
quoted as: 33% return to capital and 67% return to y(t) =
A(t)L(t)
labor (in Western nations).
The main interest of the model is the dynamics of capital
In a growing economy, capital is accumulated faster than intensity k , the capital stock per unit of eective labour.
people are born, so the denominator in the growth func- Its behaviour over time is given by the key equation of the
[note 2]
tion under the MFP calculation is growing faster than SolowSwan model:
in the ALP calculation. Hence, MFP growth is almost
always lower than ALP growth. (Therefore, measuring
= sk(t) (n + g + )k(t)
in ALP terms increases the apparent capital deepening k(t)
eect.) MFP is measured by the "Solow residual", not
The rst term, sk(t) = sy(t) , is the actual investment
ALP.
per unit of eective labour: the fraction s of the output
per unit of eective labour y(t) that is saved and invested.
The second term, (n + g + )k(t) , is the break-even
2 Mathematics of the model
investment: the amount of investment that must be invested to prevent k from falling.[8]:16 The equation imThe textbook SolowSwan model is set in continuous- plies that k(t) converges to a steady-state value of k ,
time world with no government or international trade. A dened by sk(t) = (n + g + )k(t) , at which there is
single good (output) is produced using two factors of pro- neither an increase nor a decrease of capital intensity:
duction, labor ( L ) and capital ( K )in an aggregate production function that satises the Inada conditions, which
1
) 1
(
imply that the elasticity of substitution must be asymptots
k =
ically equal to one.[6][7]
n+g+
3
at which the stock of capital K and eective labour AL 3 MankiwRomerWeil version of
are growing at rate (n+g) . By assumption of constant remodel
turns, output Y is also growing at that rate. In essence, the
SolowSwan model predicts that an economy will converge to a balanced-growth equilibrium, regardless of its 3.1 Addition of Human Capital
starting point. In this situation, the growth of output per
worker is determined solely by the rate of technological N. Gregory Mankiw, David Romer, and David Weil created a human capital augmented version of the Solowprogress.[8]:18
Swan model that can explain the failure of international
K(t)
Since, by denition, Y (t) = k(t)1 , at the equilibrium investment to ow to poor countries.[11] In this model outk we have
put and the marginal product of capital (K) are lower in
poor countries because they have less human capital than
rich countries.
s
K(t)
Similar to the textbook SolowSwan model, the produc=
Y (t)
n+g+
tion function is of CobbDouglas type:
Therefore, at the equilibrium, the capital/output ratio depends only on savings, growth, and depreciation rates. Y (t) = K(t) H(t) (A(t)L(t))1
This is the Solow-Swan models version of the Golden
where H(t) is the stock of human capital, which deprecirule savings rate.
ates at the same rate as physical capital. For simplicity,
Since < 1 , at any time t the marginal product of capital
they assume the same function of accumulation for both
K(t) in the Solow-Swan model is inversely related to the
types of capital. Like in SolowSwan, a fraction of the
capital/labor ratio.
outcome, sY (t) , is saved each period, but in this case
split up and invested partly in physical and partly in human capital, such that s = sK + sH . Therefore, there
Y
are two fundamental dynamic equations in this model:
1
1
MPK =
= A
/(K/L)
K
If productivity A is the same across countries, then countries with less capital per worker K/L have a higher
marginal product, which would provide a higher return
on capital investment. As a consequence, the model predicts that in a world of open market economies and global
nancial capital, investment will ow from rich countries to poor countries, until capital/worker K/L and income/worker Y /L equalize across countries.
k = sK k h (n + g + )k
h = sH k h (n + g + )h
The balanced (or steady-state) equilibrium growth path is
determined by k = h = 0 , which means sK k h (n+
g + )k = 0 and sH k h (n + g + )h = 0 . Solving
for the steady-state level of k and h yields:
H
K
plication is that productivity is lower in poor countries. k = n + g +
The basic Solow model cannot explain why productivity
1
is lower in these countries. Lucas suggested that lower
( 1 ) 1
sK sH
levels of human capital in poor countries could explain h =
n+g+
the lower productivity.[10]
Y
If one equates the marginal product of capital K
with In the steady state, y = (k ) (h ) .
the rate of return r (such approximation is often used in
neoclassical economics), then, for our choice of the pro3.2 Econometric estimates
duction function
3.3
6 NOTES
that have greatly raised their savings rates have experienced the income convergence predicted by the SolowSwan model. As an example, output/worker in Japan, a
country which was once relatively poor, has converged to
the level of the rich countries. Japan experienced high
growth rates after it raised its savings rates in the 1950s
and 1960s, and it has experienced slowing growth of output/worker since its savings rates stabilized around 1970,
as predicted by the model.
5 See also
Conditional convergence
Economic growth
Endogenous growth theory
Golden rule savings rate
6 Notes
[1] Step-by-step calculation:
K(t) (A(t)L(t))1
A(t)L(t)
y(t)
K(t)
(A(t)L(t))
Y (t)
A(t)L(t)
[A(t)L(t)
+
L(t)A(t)]
[A(t)L(t)]2
K(t)
A(t)L(t)
K(t) L(t)
A(t)L(t) L(t)
= k(t)
K(t)
A(t)L(t)
K(t) A(t)
A(t)L(t) A(t)
Since
K(t)
= sY (t) K(t) , and L(t)
, A(t)
are
L(t)
A(t)
n and g , respectively, the equation simplies to
Y (t)
K(t)
K(t)
K(t)
k(t)
= s A(t)L(t)
A(t)L(t)
n A(t)L(t)
g A(t)L(t)
=
sy(t) k(t) nk(t) gk(t) . As mentioned above,
y(t) = k(t) .
References
8 Further reading
Agnor, Pierre-Richard (2004). Growth and Technological Progress: The SolowSwan Model. The
Economics of Adjustment and Growth (Second ed.).
Cambridge: Harvard University Press. pp. 439
462. ISBN 0-674-01578-9.
Barro, Robert J.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier (2004).
Growth Models with Exogenous Saving Rates.
Economic Growth (Second ed.).
New York:
McGraw-Hill. pp. 2384. ISBN 0-262-02553-1.
Burmeister, Edwin; Dobell, A. Rodney (1970).
One-Sector Growth Models. Mathematical Theories of Economic Growth. New York: Macmillan.
pp. 2064.
Dornbusch, Rdiger; Fischer, Stanley; Startz,
Richard (2004). Growth Theory: The Neoclassical Model. Macroeconomics (Ninth ed.). New
York: McGraw-Hill Irwin. pp. 6175. ISBN 0-07282340-2.
Farmer, Roger E. A. (1999). Neoclassical Growth
Theory. Macroeconomics (Second ed.). Cincinnati: South-Western. pp. 333355. ISBN 0-32412058-3.
Gandolfo, Giancarlo (1996). The Neoclassical
Growth Model. Economic Dynamics (Third ed.).
Berlin: Springer. pp. 175189. ISBN 3-54060988-1.
Intriligator, Michael D. (1971). Mathematical Optimalization and Economic Theory. Englewood Clis:
Prentice-Hall. pp. 398416. ISBN 0-13-561753-7.
External links
Solow Model Videos - 20+ videos walking through
derivation of the Solow Growth Models Conclusions
Java applet where you can experiment with parameters and learn about Solow model
Solow Growth Model by Fiona Maclachlan, The
Wolfram Demonstrations Project.
A step-by-step explanation of how to understand the
Solow Model
Professor Jos-Vctor Ros-Rulls course at University of Minnesota
Professor Alex Tabarroks Solow Growth Model
lecture at MRUniversity
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