Proceedings of

2000 International Joint Power Generation Conference

Miami Beach, Florida, July 23-26, 2000

IJPGC2000-15000
A NEW APPROACH TO STATISTIC PROCESSING
OF STEAM PARAMETER MEASUREMENTS
IN THE STEAM TURBINE PATH TO DIAGNOSE ITS CONDITION

Anatoly A. Gordinsky, Evgeny R. Plotkin,

and Evsey I. Benenson,
Berman Engineers Ltd., ISRAEL
Alexander S. Leyzerovich
Actinium Corp., CA

ABSTRACT

steam path. However, these changes, even caused by such

serious damages as, for example, failures of individual
blades or even stages upon the whole, frequently turn out
to be minor, quite comparable with the instrumental errors
of measuring these parameters. It is all the more true for
such changes in the steam path condition as, particularly,
deposits on the blading surfaces or their erosion. So all
these changes commonly remain unnoticed by the
operational personnel against the background of the
changes caused by variations in the turbines operating
conditions: main and reheat steam temperatures, load, etc.
Thus, for example, the failure of the rotating blades of a
stage in a large reaction-type steam turbines high-pressure
cylinder (HPC) changes the steam temperature after the
cylinder by not more than 2-3 C. Because these blades are
not very long and bulky, vibrational diagnostics does not
commonly allow revealing such failures, too, especially if
the failure embraces all the stages blades. Therefore, to
diagnose the steam turbine path condition, it is very
important to recognize and separate the measured values
changes precisely caused by the variations in the operating
conditions for the undamaged turbine.
This way, it is important to specify at least two
independent goals. The first one is associated with
defining the current normative values of the diagnostic
parameters for the current operating conditions. And the
second goal comes to minimizing the errors in measuring
the variables employed for diagnostics and defining the
mentioned normative values. The developed approach to
the statistical processing of the measured values is just
aimed at the solution of these two tasks. Its possibilities

Technical diagnostics for the steam paths of large steam turbines

can be conducted on the basis of regular steam parameter
measurements in the turbine. Solution of this problem is to a
great degree tied to raising the confidence of appraising the
deviations of the currently measured parameters from their
normative values for the undamaged steam path. A proper
statistic processing of the measured data allows tracing the
turbines steam path condition on-line with more confidence.
Thus, for example, for the high-pressure sections, the steam
temperature after the section is one of the most representative
diagnostic indicators (symptoms). A newly developed approach
makes it possible to decrease the standard deviation for this value
to 0.8 C and recognize reliably the changes of the measured
steam temperature values as compared with its normative value
even not exceeding 2-3 C. The same is true for the deviations of
other measured variables employed as the diagnostic parameters.
The developed approach is verified as applied to the actual
reaction-type steam turbine in its long-term operation under both
stationary and transient operating conditions with the use of the
data taken from the units computerized Data Acquisition System.

INTRODUCTION
Revealing timely the failures of the turbines steam path
or some considerable changes in its condition makes it
possible to prevent the turbine from more serious failures,
schedule more well-groundedly the turbine operation and
maintenance, and ultimately go over to the Reliability
Centered Maintenance (RCM). This task is one of the
most important as applied to technical diagnostics of large
steam turbines [1, 2]. The changes in the steam turbines
condition to be diagnosed reflect on the thermal process in
the turbine and, hence, on the steam parameters in the

Copyright (C) 2000 by ASME

Of extreme importance is the choice of the specific

outside parameters used for constructing the mentioned
dependences. This to a great degree determines whether
the gotten equations can be employed for diagnostics of the
turbine steam path as a whole or its individual parts. The
outside parameters should be independent of each other
and of the turbine steam path condition and could be
measured with the random errors little enough for using
subsequently in calculations of the diagnostic parameters
normative values. The number of the outside parameters
involved in every dependence is desirable to be minimal
and, on the other hand, all the outside parameters
remarkably influencing the considered diagnostic
parameter should take place in the dependence.
Observing these principles makes it possible to gain the
dependences for calculating the normative values of the
internal steam parameters under diverse operating
conditions.
These dependences are invariant to the
potential turbine steam path failures and flaws and, hence,
independent of the actual turbine steam path condition. As
a consequence, any variations in the operating conditions
and, hence, variations of the outside parameters do not tell
on the results of comparing the diagnostic parameters with
their normative values, because these variations are being
taken into account while determining the current normative
values.
Statistic processing and constructing the
dependences for the normative values with the direct usage
of the data of actual measurements taken from the DAS
eliminate (or, at least, considerably decrease) the influence
of systematic errors in the measuring system.
By an example, for the HPC of the considered reactiontype steam turbine with the rated single capacity of 228
MW, three internal steam parameters were chosen to trace
on-line its steam path condition. As applied to the existing
measurement system, they are the steam temperature and
pressure after the HPC (T1 and P1) and the steam pressure
at the control stage (Pcs). The two first parameters are also
necessary to assess the inner efficiency of the HPC, its
most important characteristic. The outside parameter set
for the HPC should comprise the steam flow amount
through the cylinder (G0), vacuum in the condenser (W),
steam parameters before the turbine (T0, P0, and Trh), and
position of the HP control valves (Hcv). At the same time,
consideration of the existing measuring system showed that
it is more advisable to trace the control valve position by
the measured pressure of the hydraulic fluid in the
turbines governing system (Phf) due to the higher accuracy
of this measurement. Of a great importance is also how to
assess the steam flow amount through the HPC. Since
there is no direct measurements of the main steam flow to
the turbine, it is led to using indirect methods. According
to a known recommendation [4], under such conditions the
greatest accuracy could be attained by monitoring the
steam pressure before the low-pressure cylinder (LPC).

are shown by the example of the HPC of the actual

reaction-type steam turbine.
THE WAY TO DEFINE THE DIAGNOSTIC
PARAMETERS NORMATIVE VALUES
Settling up the problem, the technical diagnostics for the
turbines steam path was supposed to be carried out
completely on the basis of the measured data taken from
the units existing computerized Data Acquisition System
(DAS) without using any additional special measurements
of a heightened accuracy. The heart of the diagnostics lies
in comparing the steam parameters currently measured in
the turbine (the diagnostic parameters) with their normative
values having been defined for the turbine with the steam
path in its initial, undamaged condition. By an initial
condition is meant the steam path condition after the
overhaul with necessary inspections and repairs.
The changes of the steam parameters in the turbine are
caused not only by the steam path condition but also such
outside (for the steam path) factors as the steam flow
amount through the turbine, steam parameters before the
turbine, control valve position, state of the turbines
regenerative system, and so on [2]. Thereby, these factors
commonly influence the internal steam parameters to a
much greater degree than the diagnosed changes in the
steam path condition do. That is why the internal steam
parameters normative values determined on-line should
take into account the actual current values of the outside
parameters. Theoretically, this task could be solved with
the use of diverse existing computer programs developed
to calculate the thermal processes in turbines. Such a
program, if it is sufficiently accurate, simple, and fastacting, could on-line calculate the normative values of the
internal steam parameters basing on the current data taken
from the units DAS. However, in this case, the gotten
results would be considerably affected by the systematic
measurement errors inevitably peculiar to any informative
system.
These errors would automatically interfere
defining the deviations of the internal steam parameters
(diagnostic parameters) from their normative values.
The developed approach is based on constructing some
empirical multidimensional dependences for the internal
steam parameters on the outside conditions.
The
dependences are constructed via statistic generalization of
the data accumulated during the first turbine operation
period after the overhaul when the turbine steam path is
considered to be in its initial undamaged condition. The
gained experience of constructing similar models for
diverse industrial processes [3] shows that the models can
be relatively short and simple if a proper construction
technology is applied. Thereby, the number of the
influential outside parameters rarely turns out to be over
five even for quite complex objects.

Copyright (C) 2000 by ASME

variables that materially influences the process of the

model structure determination. Finally, the errors of
measuring the used outside parameters were found, as well
as the low estimation of the random error for the normative
values of the considered diagnostic parameters.

This variable (P3) does not depend on the steam path

condition of the HP and intermediate-pressure cylinders.
As to the LPC, the flaws of its steam path caused by
corrosion, erosion, and wear-out of the gland seals only
slightly affect the dependence between the steam flow
amount and this steam pressure. At the same time, more
serious failures in the LPC steam path, such as damages of
its long rotating blades, can be obviously diagnosed via the
turbine vibration and other indicators and do not usually
remain unnoticed. It is significant that this steam pressure
is usually measured with much higher accuracy as
compared with the possible direct measurement of the
main steam flow amount. Along with this, in this case, in
order to assess the steam flow through the HPC, it is
necessary to correct the measured value for the steam
extractions to the turbine regenerative system. These
corrections should be input with regard to the current
regenerative system condition, but this can be reliably done
on the basis of the currently measured data of the
feedwaters temperatures and flow amount.
As a result, for the considered turbine, six independent
outside parameters (T0, P0, Trh, W, Phf, and P3) were used
to construct the statistic models for the normative values of
the diagnostic parameters (Pcs, T1 and P1).

DEVELOPMENT OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS

The models were developed with the use of a regressive
approach.
The base functions were taken as
multidimensional quadric polynomials coupled with the
quotients of variables. A preliminary estimation showed
that, to get the required accuracy, the multiple correlation
coefficients should be not less than 0.995. This entails
very exacting requirements on the identification quality of
the models, namely on the determination of their structure,
estimation of their parameters, and robustness assurance.
The model structure was determined with the use of a
two-stage procedure. The task of the first stage was to find
the structure best in a certain sense for the taken model
size, varying within certain limits: 2, 3, 4, etc. This search
was fulfilled with the use of an adaptive Monte-Carlo
method, unsusceptible to the existing considerable
correlation between the variables. It should be noted that,
even if such a correlation does not exist, it can arise in the
process of composing the multidimensional polynomials
and be very essential. Hence, the methods insusceptibility
to the correlation turns out to be one of the decisive factors.
At the second stage, the models of different sizes were
compared with one another. In doing so, a sequential Ftest of comparison was used with a crucial addition: the
variances were calculated with regard to the error of
measuring the parameters. This makes it possible to
compensate the actual observance schemes dissimilarity
from the classical regression scheme meaning that the
initial variables are measured with the complete accuracy.
The regression equations coefficients were assessed
with the help of the enhanced least square method [6]. As
distinct from the classical least square method, this one
gives two solutions, one of which has less variance and,
therefore, is closer to the true solution in the Euclidian
metrics. The solution is chosen with the use of a priori
information of any kind, including qualitative data. In this
instance, it was being taken into consideration that, with
the correlated input variables, the parameters vector norm
is usually higher than the true one, and the preference was
being given to the solution with the less vector norm.
The robustness of the regression modeling results is
often estimated with he help a so-called jackknife method.
According to this method, the lines of initial data are
excluded by turns; the regression equations parameters are
again assessed on the basis of the remaining data, and the
new misclosures are found by comparing the obtained
responses with the excluded data. If the variance of these

PRELIMINARY PROCESSING OF INITIAL DATA

The dependences sought for the normative values of the
diagnostic parameters were constructed on the basis of the
common operating data taken from the units DAS. In
doing so, autocorrelation functions were investigated as
applied to the processes of variation of the measured
parameters with time. This was necessary to determine the
sampling time slice for the data intended for constructing
the normative models. To get a good number condition for
these data, the data time slice was accepted close to the
time period of damping the autocorrelation function down
to the value determined by the confidence tube [5]. So this
period value was equated to six hours. The necessary body
of data was determined from the convention that the ratio
of the measurement number to the number of the variables
included in the model will be about 15. As a result, the
required number of the measured values was accepted
about 70-80. In the process of accumulating the initial data
for the models, all the operating condition features, state of
both the turbine and the turboset as a whole were
thoroughly fixed to be sure in applicability of the models.
A special attention was paid to statistic characteristics of
the outside parameters that had been selected for
constructing the models. The assessments of expectation,
standard deviation, and correlation matrix were gained for
all the outside parameters (T0, P0, Trh, W, Phf, and P3). The
consideration of the correlation matrices showed
substantial correlation (about 0.83-0.95) between some

Copyright (C) 2000 by ASME

(symptom) telling on the steam path condition of the

cylinder. It must be emphasized that these diagnostic
indicators are released from the influence of the operating
condition variations, since these variations are already
taken into consideration in the normative value formulas.

misclosures is much higher than the residual variance for

the complete data, this indicates that the developed
equations are not sufficiently robust, and by contrast, little
differences attest the equations possess high robustness and
predictive value. In this instance, the heightened jackknife
method was employed with an opportunity of excluding
every possible couples of the data lines. The whole body
of such calculations would be enormously laborious, but a
special theory developed for this goal and calculation
algorithms based on this theory made it possible to decline
sharply the execution computer time to several seconds.
The mentioned procedures were materialized in the form
a software package, that successfully passed through longterm tests. For the considered task and as applied to the
HPC of the specific turbine, the calculations having been
conducted in complete accordance with the depicted
technology gave the following mathematical models for the
normative values of the three diagnostic parameters (steam
temperature and pressure after the HPC T1 and P1 and
steam pressure at the control stage Pst):
T1 = -87+93.37P3+1.517(Trh/P0)+0.534T0,
P1 = 0.242+3.35P3+0.00144(Phf/W), and
Pst= 3.17+10.7P3-0.664/Phf-0.0276(T0-537.7)
(P0-13.12).
Here, the temperatures are in C and pressures are in MPa.
The models were gotten for a wide range of operating
condition variations corresponding to typical daily load
changes for the considered power unit. The operating
parameters varied in the following limits: the turbine load
between 100 and 40% of the rated value, the main and
reheat steam temperatures in the range of 545-523 and
542-507 C, correspondingly, and the backpressure in the
condenser between 6.7 and 3.6 kPa. This reflects in the
corresponding variations of the inner steam parameters: the
steam temperature and pressure after the HPC changed by
up to 43.5 C and 2 MPa, and the variations of the steam
pressure at the control stage attained 7 MPa.
The statistic characteristics of the models are depicted in
the following table:
Multiple correlation
coefficient, R
Standard deviation
of misclosure (with
normal distribution)

T1
0.9959

P1
0.9989

Pst
0.9983

1.48
C

33.4
kPa

154
kPa

MODEL VERIFICATION
The above-described procedures of testing the model
robustness, as well as standard examinations of the model
adequacy, are necessary but not sufficient to be sure in the
model applicability. The most crucial examination is the
model verification with use of fresh data that have not
been employed in the identification process (so-called
cross-validation process).
As such data, the measured
values of the monitored parameters were gathered a month
before the model identification period and two months
after it. Every model was verified on the basis of three
independent data arrays of 74 measuring points referring to
three months of the turbine operation under both stationary
and transient operating conditions. The outside operating
parameters varied approximately as much as the initial data
employed for the model identification. The comparative
data of the standard deviations for the calculated values of
the internal parameters as applied to the initial data and
the fresh data arrays are given in the following table:
Initial data
Fresh data:
Array No. 1
Array No. 2
Array No. 3

T1, C
1.48

P1, kPa
33.4

Pst, MPa
0.154

1.05
1.73
1.16

28.5
23.8
41.0

0.158
0.137
0.169

The obtained standard deviation values do not go beyond

the border of 95%-confidence interval for the initial
standard deviation. This approves a quite sufficient
adequacy and applicability of the models. The biggest
deviations are observed at the transients. As expected, as
to the stationary and near-stationary operating conditions,
the models are more accurate.
As pointed out above, it is the difference between the
actual measured value of the monitored internal steam
parameter and its calculated normative value that is
considered to be the diagnostic indicator. Monitored online, it comprises both the random error for the normative
value estimated above and the random error of measuring
the internal parameter, as such. The robust smoothing
methods make it possible to overcome the affect of
probable excursions.
Coupled with the subsequent
averaging of the measured values at certain time intervals,
these methods provide a considerable decrease of the final
error. The resulted difference robustly smoothed becomes
a new diagnostic indicator (symptom) with a higher signal-

The foregoing formulas allows assessing the normative

values of the HPCs internal parameters on-line, in the
operation process, with regard to the current parameters of
the turbines operating conditions. The difference between
the current measured value of the monitored parameter
coming from the DAS and its currently calculated
normative value becomes the diagnostic indicator

Copyright (C) 2000 by ASME

construct multidimensional empirical dependences for the

normative values of the diagnostic parameters with an
acceptable accuracy. Such dependences for the actual
turbine provided the sufficient accuracy of calculating the
normal values of the internal steam parameters under
conditions of varying the operating parameters in a wide
range. They were also verified via cross validation.
4. The robust processing of the obtained diagnostic
indicators materially decreases their deviations and
increases the recognition power of the diagnostic method.
The mentioned approaches taken together make attainment
of the pursued goal quite realistic.

to-noise ratio. Thus, for the temperature after the HPC,

such an indicator has the standard deviation of 0.8 C and,
correspondingly, the limiting deviation of 1.6 C with the
95%-confidence interval.
This permits recognizing
reliably the changes in the monitored indicator value about
2-3 C.
The following diagram imitates a hypothetical failure of
the stage in the HPC steam path. This event manifests
itself by changing the diagnostic indicator (symptom) value
by 3 C that looks quite recognizable.
CONCLUSIONS
1. The goal to be sought is the on-line revelation of
failures in the turbine steam path with the use of regular
measurements of the turbines operating parameters taken
from the units computerized Data Acquisition System.
The differences between the current measured values of
some diagnostic variables (internal steam parameters) and
their normative values for the undamaged turbine are
regarded as the diagnostic indicators (symptoms).
2. The dependency of the internal steam parameters on
the steam path condition is commonly slighter than on the
outside factors, i.e., the variations of the operating
conditions. This problem is solved by calculating on-line
the normative values for the internal steam parameters with
regard to the measured current values of the independent
operating parameters. These normative values do not
depend on the steam path condition.
3. The general task is solved with the use of an original
methodology of constructing mathematical models on the
basis of guided regression, including some new and
heightened methods of determining the structure, assessing
parameters, and testing robustness of the models. This
methodology was demonstrated to be an effective tool to

REFERENCES:
1. Leyzerovich, A.Sh., 1991, The Conception of
Continuous Technical Diagnostics for ThermoMechanical Equipment of Fossil Power Plant Units,
Elektricheskie Stantsii, No. 7, pp. 28-31 (in Russian).
2. Leyzerovich, A., 1997, Large Power Steam Turbines:
Design & Operation, 2 vols., PennWell, Tulsa, OK.
3. Gordinsky, A.A., 1996, Viscose Film and Textile
Fibre Quality Investigation and Control in Industry,
Proc. 11th International Conference of the Israel Society
for Quality, Jerusalem, pp.185 - 190.
4. Sakharov, A.M., 1990, Heat-Rate Performance Tests
for Steam Turbines, Energoatomizdat, Moscow (in
Russian).
5. Bendat, J. and Piersol, A., 1989, Random Data Analysis
and Measurement Procedures, Mir, Moscow (in
Russian).
6. Gordinsky, A.A., 1991, On a New Method of
Estimation, Prepr. 9th IFAC/IFORS Symposium on
Identification and System Parameter Estimation, 22,
Budapest, pp. 1370 -1373.

Change of the diagnostic symptom after robust smoothing

(alarm at time = 10)
6

Diagnostic symptom, Dt1, C

5
4
3
2
1
0
-1 0

10

15

20

25

30

35

without robust smoothing

-2

after robust smoothing

-3
-4
Time

Copyright (C) 2000 by ASME