0.

4
low sales
80000
Hold small stock
0

116000

80000

0.6
high sales
140000
0

140000

2
140000

0.4
low sales
20000
Hold large stock
0

140000

20000

0.6
high sales
220000
0

220000

ID

Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0

Kind
0D
0E
0E
1T
1T
2T
2T

NS

S1
2
2
2
0
0
0
0

S2
1
3
5
0
0
0
0

S3
2
4
6
0
0
0
0

S4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Col
9
4
14
2
7
12
17

1
5
5
9
9
9
9

Mark

Hold small stock

0
0.47
Forecast say low sales
1
0

Hold large stock

Do forecast
0
0

0.53
Forecast say high sales

1
0

Do not forecast
0

0.68
Low sales
0

old small stock

0
0

0.32
High sales
0
0

0.68
Low sales
0

old large stock

0
0

0.32
High sales
0
0

ID
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Name
TreePlan

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0

0
0

Kind
0D
0E
0T
1D
1T
3E
3E
5T
5T
6T
6T

NS

S1
2
2
0
2
0
2
2
0
0
0
0

S2
1
3
0
5
0
7
9
0
0
0
0

2
4
0
6
0
8
10
0
0
0
0

S3

S4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Col
21
15
27
9
22
4
14
2
7
12
17

Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
17
17
17
17

Harvest
0

34200
0.121577
Botrytis
0
0.668194
Strom

EV
2
34297.68

0 30727.89
0.878423
No Botryris
0

Do not harvest
0 34297.68

Harvest
0
0.331806
No strom
2
0

37200

Wait for sugar

0

34200

67200
67200

Bottle
25680
0

o Botryris

25680

Sell in bulk
1
25680

12840
0

12840

Sell in grapes
12840
0

12840

34200
34200
0.4
25%
42000
0

42000

0.4
20%

Wait for sugar

36000
37200

36000

0.2
Low acid
30000
0

30000

variable
riesling cases produced
bottle produced (@12 bottle per case)
price per bottle for not quite ripe grape
price per bottle if botrytis didnt form
price sell in bulk
price sell the grape
price 25% sugar wine
price 20% sugar wine
price low acid wine
price botrytised riesling
addition in volume if the barrieers swell
reduction in volume of botrytis riesling

Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability

Strom Hit
Botrytis form its strom hit
low acid wine
25% sugar wine
20% sugar wine

value
1000
12000
2.85
2
1
1
3.5
3
2.5
8
0.07
0.3
0.7
Value Min Value Max Value Base Case
0.6682
0
1
0.5
0.1216
0
1
0.4
0.2
0
1
0.2
0.4
0.5
0
0.4
0.5
0

ID

Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Value

Prob
0

0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

Pred

Kind
0D
0T
0E
2E
2D
3T
3D
6T
6T
6T
4T
4E
11 T
11 T
11 T

NS

S1
2
0
2
2
2
0
3
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0

S2
1
0
3
5
10
0
7
0
0
0
0
12
0
0
0

S3
2
0
4
6
11
0
8
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0

S4
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
0
0
0
0
14
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row

Col
12
2
22
12
32
7
17
12
17
22
27
37
32
37
42

Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
17
17
17
13
13
17
17
17

This Version Not Licensed For Commercial Or Student Use

RiskSim 2.43
Date
Time
Workbook
Worksheet
Output Cell
Output Label
Seed
Trials
RiskSim 2.43

Trial for Evaluation

2/17/2015
10:46:45 AM
New Microsoft Office Excel Worksheet.xlsx
Decision Tree Case
$A$14
EV
9999
500
Trial for Evaluation

Mean
St. Dev.
Mean St. Error
Minimum
First Quartile
Median
Third Quartile
Maximum
Skewness
RiskSim 2.43 Trial

34297.684738
2.25781E-010
1.00972E-011
34297.684738
34297.684738
34297.684738
34297.684738
34297.684738
1.0030
for Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation - Histogram

EV
600
500
400
300
200

Frequency

100
0

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation - Cumulative Chart

1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4

Cumulative Probability

0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0

EV

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

RiskSim Trial Version, Only For Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

www.TreePlan.com

This Version Not Licensed For Commercial Or Student Use

RiskSim 2.43
Date
Time
Workbook
Worksheet
Output Cell
Output Label
Seed
Trials
RiskSim 2.43

Trial for Evaluation

2/17/2015
10:25:49 AM
New Microsoft Office Excel Worksheet.xlsx
Case
$A$14
EV
9999
500
Trial for Evaluation

Mean
39744
St. Dev.
0
Mean St. Error
0
Minimum
39744
First Quartile
39744
Median
39744
Third Quartile
39744
Maximum
39744
Skewness
Err:512
RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation - Histogram

EV
600
500
400
300

Frequency
200
100
0
36167.04
36961.92
37756.8
38551.68
39346.56
40141.44
40936.32
41731.2
42526.08
43320.96
35769.6
36564.48
37359.36
38154.24
38949.12
39744
40538.88
41333.76
42128.64
42923.52
43718.4

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation - Cumulative Chart

1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5

Cumulative Probability

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
36167.04 36961.92
37756.8
38551.68 39346.56 40141.44 40936.32
41731.2
42526.08 43320.96
35769.6
36564.48 37359.36 38154.24 38949.12
39744
40538.88 41333.76 42128.64 42923.52
43718.4

EV

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

RiskSim Trial Version, Only For Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

www.TreePlan.com

variable
riesling cases produced
bottle produced (@12 bottle per case)
price per bottle for not quite ripe grape
price per bottle if botrytis didnt form
price sell in bulk
price sell the grape
price 25% sugar wine
price 20% sugar wine
price low acid wine
price botrytised riesling
addition in volume if the barrieers swell
reduction in volume of botrytis riesling

Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability

Strom Hit
Botrytis form its strom hit
low acid wine
25% sugar wine
20% sugar wine

Informasi yg diterima

value min value

1000
12000
2.85
1.85
2
1.00
1
1
3.5
2.50
3
2.00
2.5
1.50
8
7.00
0.07
0.05
0.3

max value

base case

3.85
3.00
2.00
2.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
9.00
0.10

2.85
2.00
1.00
1.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
8.00
0.07

Value Min Value

Max Value Base Case
0.5
0
1
0.5
0.4
0
1
0.4
0.2
0
1
0.2
0.4
0.5
0
0.4
0.5
0

Jarak antara base case min value dengan max value harus sama semua