Professional Documents
Culture Documents
June 2014
Contents
10. OUTLOOK ON OMT / TOLL MARKET FROM BOT OPERATORS FOR NATIONAL
HIGHWAYS (INDIRECT) ......................................................................................................... 165
A) Overview of BOT model .................................................................................................................................. 165
B) Key concerns faced by BOT players............................................................................................................... 166
C) Market for OMT/Toll players ........................................................................................................................... 167
The agriculture sector grew at a faster rate of about 4.0 per cent in 2013-14 compared to 1.4 per cent in the
previous year due to better monsoons.
Services sector continued its stable performance with 6.5 per cent growth in 2013-14 as against 6.2 per
cent in the previous fiscal.
12.0%
9.5%
60
9.6%
9.3%
9.3%
10.0%
8.6%
8.1%
50
7.0%
40
4.9%
6.7%
5.3%
8.0%
6.3%
5.4%
5.1%
4.6%
4.5%
4.7%
6.0%
3.8%
3.7%
30
3.3%
2.8%
3.3%
20
4.0%
2.0%
-0.6%
10
28
30
33
36
39
42
45
0.0%
49
52
55
57
-2.0%
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
GDP
Note: World GDP growth calculation is based on calendar year while that of India is on the basis of financial year
Source: Central Statistical Organisation, CRISIL Research
World GDP growth averaged 2.9 per cent for the past five years and increased by about 3.0 per cent in 2013. The
growth was largely led by emerging markets and developing economies, which grew at 4.7 per cent in 2013. Indias
GDP growth has outpaced the growth of world GDP primarily driven by strong domestic demand and better
investment climate.
RBI has pegged Indian GDP growth in 2014-15 at 5.5 per cent. RBI expects GDP growth from agriculture and
allied activities to taper to 3.0 per cent but industrial GDP growth to surge from 0.6 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.5 per
cent in 2014-15. CRISIL Research estimates GDP growth for 2014-15 to be around 6 per cent.
Forex Reserves and WPI in India
USD billion
350.0
12.0
309.2
303.5
300.0
294.8
277.0
303.7
292.6
10.0
252.3
9.6
250.0
8.9
199.2
8.0
8.1
200.0
7.3
6.0
6.6
150.0
6.0
4.0
4.7
100.0
3.9
2.0
50.0
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
Indias forex reserves increased to USD 303.7 billion in 2013-14 from USD 199.2 billion in 2006-07, registering a
CAGR of about 6.2 per cent. WPI inflation, after remaining persistently high during 2010-11 and 2011-12, has
shown signs of moderation since December 2011 and currently stands at 6 per cent for 2013-14. The persistently
elevated prices for animal products (eggs, meat and fish), the rise in the prices of cereals and vegetables, along
with the increase in international prices of fertilizers (non-urea) and the increase in administered prices of diesel
have contributed to inflation to differing degrees over time.
15.00
10.00
5.00
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
(5.00)
Industrial production growth
Manufacturing growth
1400
Total 1210.0
Total 1029.0
1200
377
1000
286
800
600
400
833
743
200
0
2001
2011
Urban
Rural
The consumption expenditure in India grew to Rs 41.3 trillion in 2012-13 from Rs 20.1 trillion in 2001-02, registering
an coumpounded annual growth rate of about 6.8 per cent.
Consumption expenditure growth
Rs tn
45
40
40
41
37
34
35
31
29
30
27
25
25
20
21
22
23
20
15
10
5
0
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13*
Infrastructure
Roads
National
Highway
Power
Power
Generation
Irrigation
Railways
Urban Infrastructure
MRTS
Airports
Telecom
Others
Ports
BRTS
State Roads
Power Transmission
and Distribution
Rural Roads
Others
In the Eleventh five year plan (i.e. 2007-08 to 2011-12), the actual investments in the infrastructure sector reached
Rs 19.5 trillion as against budgeted investment of Rs 20.6 trillion (95 per cent achievement level). The key drivers
were increased focus of central government on improving the infrastructure, in lieu of which several programmes
were undertaken by the government.
The construction spend on infrastructure projects is expected to amount to Rs 51.5 trillion over the next five years
from the current level of Rs 19.5 trillion (actual investments), with 47 per cent contribution by private participation
and 53 per cent by the central and state governments. Within Infrastructure, Electricity is estimated to be the
largest contributor, followed by Roads and Telecommunications.
Construction spends in infrastructure segment (XI and XII five year plan)
Rs trillion
18.5
20.0
160%
130%
115%
16.0
12.0
8.0
81%
9.2
74%
8.8
8.1
40%
6.7 6.4
3.1 3.6
4.0
120%
94%
95%
2.6
3.4
4.4
4.6
2.6
2.0
80%
3.5
0.9 0.41.6
40%
0.0
0%
Actual Investment
Others include irrigation, water supply and sanitation, storage, oil and gas pipelines
Source: High level committee on Financing Infrastructure, CRISIL Research
Electricity: Electricity investments in the XI five year plan were Rs 6.4 trillion (95 per cent of the budget estimates),
lower than the budgeted estimate of Rs 6.7 trillion. The growth in investments was led by huge latent demand for
power in the country and significant capacity additions by both the private and public sector entities. Electricity
investments are the highest among the overall investments and stood at about 33 per cent of the total investments.
In the XII year plan, the investments are expected to increase to Rs 18.5 trillion as against Rs 6.4 trillion (2.9 times
increase).
Roads: The investments in roads in the XI five year plan were Rs 3.6 trillion (115 per cent of the budget estimates)
as against the envisaged investment of Rs 3.1 trillion. Roads investment accounted for about 19 per cent of the
overall infrastructure investments during the same period. It was largely driven by the governments thrust to the
sector, by encouraging PPP, speedy implementation of NHDP and the recent changes in the amenable policy
environment. The continued thrust on improving rural roads and state roads network by the various state
governments have also supported the growth. Investments in roads is expected to increase to Rs 9.2 trillion in XII
five year plan as against Rs 3.1 trillion (actual) in XI five year plan (2.9 times increase).
Railways: Investments in railways in the XI five year plan were Rs 2.0 trillion (74 per cent of the budget estimates),
well below the budgeted estimate of Rs 2.6 trillion and accounted for about 10 per cent of overall investments. The
investments were led by the governments effort to implement the rail connectivity expansion plans and also due to
increased momentum in MRTS projects. Railway investments were about 10 per cent of the overall investments. In
the XII year plan, the investments are expected to increase to Rs 4.6 trillion as against Rs 2.0 trillion in the XI plan
(2.3 times increase).
Telecommunications: Investments in telecommunications in the past five years were Rs 3.4 trillion (130 per cent of
the budget estimates) as against the envisaged investment of about Rs 2.6 trillion and accounted for about 17 per
cent of the overall infrastructure investments. Significant investments have been undertaken in the passive
infrastructure. Going forward, the investments are expected to increase to Rs 8.8 trillion in the next five years as
against Rs 3.4 trillion in the XI five year plan (2.6 times increase).
Ports: The ports sector has achieved an investment of Rs 0.4 trillion (40 per cent of the budget estimate) while the
budgeted investment was Rs 0.9 trillion and accounted for about 9 per cent of the overall investment in the past
five years. The sector has witnessed a multi-fold increase in investment led by significant private sector investment
in non major port expansion. The investment in the sector is expected to increase over the next five years to Rs 1.6
trillion in comparison to Rs 0.4 trillion in the past five years (4 times increase, however, on a small base).
Others: Other sectors include irrigation, water supply and sanitation, oil and gas pipelines, which achieved an
investment of about Rs 3.5 trillion (81 per cent of the budget estimates). Irrigation sector is largely dependent on
government initiatives and being a social sector has limited private sector participation. However, the need to
improve water supply and sanitation facilities in urban and rural areas will drive investments in this space led by
various government initiatives. Investments in oil and gas were largely led by the sustained efforts of the
government to encourage upstream investments through its New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP). Moreover,
the increasing need for natural gas infrastructure including the development of gas grid and expansion of the
coverage of city gas distribution has resulted in significant investments. In the next five years, investments are
expected to increase to Rs 8.1 trillion from the current level of Rs 3.5 trillion in these sectors (2.3 times increase).
The infrastructure sector is driven primarily by the governments initiatives for the creation of essential facilities. In
lieu of this, the government has undertaken some programs for integrated development, improvement,
maintenance and growth of infrastructure in the urban and rural areas which include:
Government programmes that drive infrastructure investments
Sector
Programmes
Power
Power
Power
Urban Infrastructure
Ports
Water supply and sanitation Command Area Development and Water Management Programme (CADWM)
Irrigation
E) Key snippets
Indias GDP has witnessed a healthy growth of about 7.6 per cent in the last decade and increased to Rs
57 trillion in 2013-14. The growth was primarily driven by services sector, which grew at 9.1 per cent during
the same period.
Overall GDP growth fell to a decadal low of 4.5 per cent in 2012-13, mainly attributable to weakening
industrial growth, tight monetary policy through most of 2011-12, and continued uncertainty in the global
economy.
With widespread reform measures initiated in recent months, countrys strong fundamentals and the global
economy poised for a moderate recovery in 2014-15, the Indian economy is expected to witness an
improved outlook in the medium term.
However, given the strong domestic demand and a more conducive investment climate, we expect Indian
economy to exhibit a moderate recovery in the medium term.
Envisaged infrastructure investments in XII five year plan has increased by 2.6 times over the past five
year plan with investments in Electricity, Roads, and Telecommunications being the key growth sectors.
Also in the XI five year plan, an achievement level of 95 per cent was attained (with roads and
telecommunication investments exceeding the target).
6506
India
Austria
100%
Netherlands
Spain
100%
France
1.88
Ireland
100%
Germany
1.81
United Kingdom
100%
Denmark
1.70
Italy
100%
Italy
1.62
Denmark
100%
United
1.61
100%
Ireland
1.37
Spain
1.35
4110
China
3730
Russia
963
France
951
Spain
667
Germany
644
Italy
Germany
Croatia
488
South Africa
364
Netherlands
136
Greece
117
Austria
111
97
Sri Lanka
Greece
Sri Lanka
Portugal
1.28
92%
1.20
86%
Korea, South
0.82
86%
Greece
0.82
Korea,South
78%
Netherlands
77%
India
0.48
77%
United States
0.44
96
Norway
United States
Portugal
77
India
Denmark
73
China
South Africa
5000
Austria
Sri Lanka
Croatia
93
93%
Portugal
Ireland
29
2.97
79%
Russia
Norway
Croatia
97%
France
United 420
10000
0%
67%
49%
44%
20%
50%
100%
0.77
0.50
Norway
0.22
China
0.16
South Africa
0.06
Russia
0.04
0.00
2.00
4.00
Roads constitute the most common mode of transportation and account for about 85 per cent of passenger traffic
and around 60 per cent of the freight traffic in the country.
In India, National Highways, with a length close to 79,000 km, constitute a mere 2 per cent of the road network but
carry about 40 per cent of the total road traffic. On the other hand, state roads and major district roads are the
secondary system of road that carry another 60 per cent of traffic and account for 98 per cent of road length.
In the decreasing order of the volume of traffic movement, road network in India can be divided into the following
categories:
Road network in India as in 2012-13
Length
(km )
Percentage of total
Length
Traffic
79,116
1.7%
40.0%
155,716
3.3%
60.0%
Other roads
4,455,010
95.0%
Total
4,689,842
100%
National highw ay
State highw ay
Coordinating
Connectivity to
agency
Union capital, state capitals,major ports,
foreign highw ays
Major centers w ithin the states, national
State PWDs
highw ays
Main roads, rural roads, Production centers,
State PWDs & MoRD
markets, highw ays, railw ay stations etc
MoST,BRO
100%
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
162
176
205
239
295
1,872
3,214
5,143
7,283
1,933
2,458
2,385
2,620
2,992
3,350
Over the last decade, the overall NHDP length (completed) has increased from around 500 km in 2001-02 to the
current levels of 22,277km (as of March 31, 2014). In the last four years, the overall implementation levels have
increased from 2,485 km in 2008-09 to 3,350 km in 2012-13.
10
300
239
250
205
200
176
162
150
100
50
0
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
kms
kms
8,000
4,000
7,283
7,000
3,500
6,000
3,000
3,350
2,992
5,143
5,000
2,500
4,000
2,385
2008-09
2009-10
2,000
3,214
3,000
2,000
2,620
2,458
1,500
1,933
1,872
1,000
1,000
500
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
11
16,000
14,000
2000
12,000
10,000
1500
8,000
1000
6,000
4,000
500
2,000
0
0
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
12
FY09 (E)
FY14 (E)
Coastal
4%
Coastal, 3%
Pipeline,
6%
Pipeline
5%
Rail,
29%
Rail
33%
Road, 62%
Road
53%
90
80
82
77
85
72
72
28
28
64
70
60
51
50
40
49
29
30
36
20
23
18
10
13
0
1950-51
1960-61
1970-71
1980-81
Road passengers
1990-91
2000-01
2004-05
2011-12
Railway passengers
Source: Working Group Report on Road Transport for Eleventh Five-Year Plan, CRISIL Research
13
Vehicular growth which was robust till 2011-12 has tapered in past two years
Domestic passenger car sales increased from 1.22 million units in 2008-09 to 1.78 million units in 2013-14 at a
CAGR of 7.9 per cent. From 1.22 million units in 2008-09, the domestic passenger car sales increased at a CAGR
of 18.5 per cent to 2 million in 2011-12. However, from 2011-12 to 2013-14, domestic passenger car sales has
seen a degrowth of 6.6 per centprimarily due to increased macroeconomic uncertainty, weak consumer sentiments,
lower disposable incomes due to high inflation, rigidity in auto lending rates and high petrol prices.
Commercial vehicles showed robust growth at a CAGR of 28 per cent from 385,000 units in 2008-09 to 809,000
units in 2011-12. However just like the domestic passenger car sales, commercial vehicle sales too showed a
degrowth from 2011-12 to 2013-14 (at a CAGR of 13 per cent).
'000 units
'000 units
2,500
900
809
1,972
2,000
800
2,030
1,894
1,785
1,526
793
684
700
633
600
532
1,500
500
1,220
400
1,000
385
300
200
500
100
-
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
NHDP was an initiative undertaken by the central government to develop National Highways in the country
during 2005-2015 with an investment of Rs 2356.9 billion.
PMGSY, a 100 per cent centrally sponsored scheme was launched for providing all-weather access to
unconnected habitations. It is aimed at providing connectivity to 172,000 habitations with 365,279 km of
new road and developing 368,000 km of existing roads ensuring full farm-to-market connectivity.
Central Road Fund is a dedicated fund created by the central government from collection of cess on petrol
and high speed diesel (HSD). For 2012-13, an allocation of Rs 194 billion has been earmarked under CRF
for 2012-13.
14
Other initiatives include viability gap funding of up to 40 per cent on a case-to-case basis. Also, tax benefits
are offered to contractors by providing 100 per cent tax exemption for five years and 30 per cent relief for
next five years, which may be availed of in 20 years besides proving concession period up to 30 years.
Steady progress in road construction: The length of road constructed has increased at a CAGR of 8 per
cent from 2,458 km in 2008-09 to 3,350 km in 2012-13 (from around 500 km under NHDP in 2001).
Increasing participation of private equity funds: Private equity has contributed to the provision of equity
requirement for road projects in the past. Also, going ahead private equity investment can further pick up
following the recent announcements of exit policy for debt-stressed operators for toll roads.
Re-emergence of EPC contracts: Given the current financial crunch being faced by BOT players, CRISIL
Research expects 60-65 per cent of projects to be awarded on EPC / cash contract basis over next five
years.
Sector favourable policies such as 100 per cent exit policy for stressed BOT players, providing for secured
status for PPP projects while lending, proposal to scrap slow moving highway projects (under
consideration) etc.
NHDP: The NHDP encompasses building, upgradation, rehabilitation and broadening of existing National
Highways. The programme is executed by the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI), in coordination
with the Public Works Department (PWD) of the various states. The NHAI also collaborates with the Border
Roads Organisation (BRO) for development of certain stretches.
PPP: PPP is expected to be the preferred mode for execution of future phases of NHDP. The government
has devised appropriate policy mechanisms to encourage private sector participation in the sector.
VGF (Viability Gap Funding): The government will provide grants or viability gap funding (VGF) in the case
of BOT-toll projects that are not financially viable.
Diversification of funding by introduction of CRF: Central Road Fund is a dedicated fund created by the
central government from collection of cess on petrol and diesel. For 2012-13, an allocation of Rs 194 billion
has been earmarked under CRF.
Finance Ministry has suggested to banks to consider 80 per cent of land acquisition while granting
disbursements instead of the current 100 per cent norms.
15
PPP loans secured status - As per recent RBI directive, loans for PPP projects can be considered as
secured subject to fulfilment of certain conditions like escrow for toll, right of substitution for lenders,
compulsory buyout by project authority in case of termination by lenders etc.
As per the Environment Ministry notification issued in August 2013, highway development projects
involving widening of roads, which are up to 100 km, need not take environment clearance.
II
III
IV
V
NHAI
NHAI
NHAI
NHAI
MORTH
NHAI
VI
Expressw ays
NHAI
VII
NHAI
Execution of NHDP declined sharply to 5.2 km per day during 2013-14 from 7.4 km per day during previous year,
impacted by extended monsoons and large number of stalled projects. Out of the total length of 50,230 km under
NHDP, about 44 per cent has been completed as on March 31, 2014. About 24 per cent of the total length is
currently under implementation and the rest is yet to be awarded. The total cost incurred on NHDP
projects stands at Rs 2,139 billion, as of January 31, 2014.
16
Phase
Unit
I
II
Total length
km
7,980
7,142
III
km
7,573
6,282
6,098
per cent
94.9
88.0
km
289
148
km
407
UI as a % of total
per cent
km
BFA as a % of total
Cost incurred so far *
Total
IV
12,109 14,799
VI
VII
6,500 1,000
700
50,230
22,277
483
1,819
22
50.4
3.3
28.0
3.1
44.3
802
311
357
1,908
443
4,326
4,575
2,262
19
12,032
5.1
6.2
35.7
30.9
34.8
0.0
2.7
24.0
417
1,685
9,741
2,419 1,000
659
15,921
per cent
0.0
5.8
13.9
65.8
37.2 100.0
94.1
31.7
Rs billion
421
629
757
55
16
2,139
261
The 5,846 km Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) connecting the four major metros, viz Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai
and Kolkata.
A total of 380 km connecting the major ports - Haldia, Paradeep, Vishakhapatnam, Chennai and Ennore,
Tuticorin, Kochi, New Mangalore, Marmugao, Jawarharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT) and Kandla - from
the east coast to the west coast and to the GQ.
GQ, which constitutes about 77 per cent of the total length of Phase I, was completed in November 2012. As
on March 31, 2014, about 95 per cent of Phase I was complete and about 5 per cent was under implementation.
An amount of Rs 421 billion was spent on this phase till January 31, 2014.
Most projects in Phase I have been awarded on a cash contract basis. Over the next five years (2013-14 to
2017-18), CRISIL Research expects Rs 7 billion to be invested for the completion of Phase I.
Phase II: Nearing completion
The CCEA approved Phase II, comprising the North South East West (NSEW) Corridor, in December 2003. This
phase involves widening of North-South and East-West corridors. The total length of the NSEW Corridor is 7,142
km. As on March 31, 2014, about 88 per cent of the NSEW Corridor was complete. This entailed a cost of Rs 629
billion as on January 31, 2014. Further, over 6 per cent of the total length of the corridor was under implementation
while the remaining 6 per cent of the total length was yet to be awarded as of March 31, 2014. In Phase II as well,
17
Providing connectivity to state capitals with the NHDP (phases I and II)
In 2011-12, projects with a total length of 1,871 km were awarded. However, project awarding fell to 153 km in
2012-13 and around 855 km were awarded in 2013-14. Out of the total length of 12,109 km under this
phase, about 50 per cent was complete as on March 31, 2014. This entailed a cost of Rs 757 billion till January 31,
2014.
The government plans to implement most projects under this phase through the BOT-toll model. The less viable
projects will be awarded under the BOT-annuity model, while the least viable stretches will be awarded as cash
contracts. The implementation of this phase is expected to require an investment of Rs 465 billion over the next five
years, as per CRISIL Research's estimates.
Phase IV: Construction started
In this phase, around 20,000 km of National Highways are planned to be improved to two-lane standards with
paved shoulders. NHAI has identified a total of 14,799 km of road stretches under this phase and
implementation has already started with about 3 per cent of the length executed for a total spend of Rs 55
billion till January 31, 2014. Further, as on March 31, 2014, about 31 per cent of the identified road length was
under implementation and about 66 per cent was yet to be awarded.
In 2011-12, around 2,069 km of projects were awarded under this phase. During 2012-13, only about 644 km of
projects were awarded while in 2013-14, projects with a total length of 1,286 km were awarded. In 2014-15, six
projects with a total length of 725 km were awarded till May 12, 2014.
Under this phase, many of the projects are expected to be awarded on EPC basis, since the traffic volumes for
these projects are lower, and thus, they are less attractive than Phase III and V projects. Therefore, if these
projects are bid out on the BOT model, developer interest would be lower. The implementation of this phase is
expected to require an investment of Rs 630 billion as per CRISIL Research's estimates for the next five years.
Phase V: Steady awarding
This phase involves six-laning of 6,500 km of select stretches of existing four-lane National Highways on designbuild-finance-operate (DBFO) basis. This includes around 5,700 km of the GQ and other selected stretches at a
total cost of Rs 412 billion (2006 prices).
18
As on March 31, 2014, about 28 per cent of Phase V was completed. Further, as on this date, around 35 per cent
of the total length under this phase was under implementation and around 37 per cent was left to be awarded. A
sum of Rs 261 billion has been spent on this phase till January 31, 2014.
In 2013-14, two projects with a total length of 130 km were awarded under this phase while projects with a total
length of 265 km were awarded in 2012-13. This was much lower than the 1,689 km length project awarding in
2011-12. Also, both these projects were re-awards of projects awarded in the previous two years.
Over the next five years, implementation of this phase is estimated to require a total investment of Rs 489 billion.
Phase VI: No action on the ground
This phase includes the development of around 1,000 km of access-controlled four/six-lane divided carriageway
expressways. Although this phase has been approved by the government, it is yet to see any awarding.
Phase VII: Initial stages of implementation
This phase proposes construction of ring roads, flyovers and by-passes on selected stretches of the National
Highways at an estimated cost of Rs 167 billion. The government approved this phase in December 2007. While
700 km of stretches have been identified, just over 3 per cent of the project length was completed as on March 31,
2014. As this date, about 3 per cent of the project was under implementation and remaining 94 per cent was yet to
be awarded.
Limited financial flexibility: Players have limited financial flexibility to bag more BOT projects. The gearing
level of many players is high due to - a sizeable portfolio of BOT projects and some company-specific
investments in real estate etc. For major players, the average gearing in roads-BOT is 3.1 times as of
2012-13.
Problems with bank funding: Banks are being more cautious while lending to road projects as they are
approaching the sectoral exposure limit towards roads. Moreover, they are trying to ensure land acquisition
does not hinder the project progress and hence demand 80-100 per cent of the land is available with the
developer at the time of awarding itself. In 2011-12, in order to achieve financial closure most of the players
had bid aggressively by quoting huge premium amounts, which in turn
Therefore, players tried to tie-up funds for the awarded projects before bidding for new projects.
Delay in clearances: Many projects faced delays in getting environmental clearance and forest
clearance, which discouraged players from bidding for new projects. GMR and GVK filed for termination
of two large BOT projects (awarded in 2011-12) as they faced delays in allotment of land from NHAI. Of the
49 projects awarded in 2011-12, around 35 per cent are currently stalled due to forest and environmental
19
clearance issues. We have observed that there is an average delay of around 9 months, for BOT projects
currently under implementation.
Low traffic density: Relatively less attractive road projects were offered by NHAI in 2012-13, where traffic
density, and thus, potential to make good returns was lower. This factor also contributed to the poor turnout
of players for bidding. As a majority of the projects to be offered in 2013-14 are expected to be from NHDP
Phase-IV, private developers interest in BOT projects is expected to continue to remain low.
Land acquisition: Inordinate delay in the acquisition of land in some states, mainly due to procedural
formalities, court cases and lack of adequate co-operation from state governments pose a major risk to any
road project. Majority of road projects in states such as Jharkhand, Assam, Bihar, Odisha and Uttar
Pradesh have been delayed due to these reasons. However, as per the new MCA, 80 per cent of the land
required for the project should be acquired before awarding the letter of award. This will potentially reduce
the delays on account of acquisition of land.
2014-15P
2015-16P
2016-17P
2017-18P
274
294
371
473
535
2,623
3,434
4,450
4,776
5,356
3,206
3,545
4,215
4,852
5,000
P: Projected
Source: CRISIL Research
Between 2013-14 and 2017-18, CRISIL Research expects an average of 11.5 km per day of roads to be
constructed / upgraded at an estimated cost of Rs 1,945 billion. Further, National Highway investments are
expected to grow 1.8 times over the next five years from Rs 295 billion in 2012-13 to Rs 535 billion in 2017-18.
20
500
371
400
300
295
274
294
200
100
0
2012-13
2013-14P
2014-15P
2015-16P
2016-17P
2017-18P
P: Projected
Source: CRISIL Research
In 2013-14, we expect awarding of 2,623 km, nearly 50 per cent of this will be part of NHDP Phase IV, which
mostly involves low traffic density stretches. Further, most of the projects will be awarded on EPC basis. Over the
next five years, CRISIL Research expects over 20,640 km of projects to be awarded in National Highways,
amounting to an average of 11 km per day (including MORTH and NHAI).
Further, of the total length of 7,406 km awarded in 2011-12, projects with an aggregate length of 4,633 km are
currently stalled. Of the total project length stalled, about 50 per cent is primarily held up due to land acquisition or
environmental clearance issues, while the rest are stuck due to the inability of companies to achieve financial
closure. Hence, project execution will decline by around 4 per cent to 3,206 km during 2013-14. However, going
ahead we expect the implemented road length to exhibit a moderate growth from 3,350 km in 2012-13 to 5,000 km
in 2017-18. With an increase in the number and size (length of roads) of projects awarded in the past few years,
CRISIL Research expects implementation of projects to pick up over the next few years.
Year wise break up of total length awarded
km
km
6,000
6,000
5,356
4,776
5,000
4,852
5,000
4,450
5,000
4,215
4,000
4,000
3,434
3,000
2,000
3,350
3,545
3,206
3,000
2,623
1,933
2,000
1,000
1,000
2012-13
2013-14P
2014-15P
2015-16P
2016-17P
2017-18P
2012-13
2013-14P
2014-15P
2015-16P
2016-17P
2017-18P
21
Multilateral agency borrowings or lending by international institutions: World Bank, Asian Development
Bank (ADB), JBIC
UNCLEAR)50 per cent of the Cess collected from diesel is for rural roads
Balance 50 per cent Cess from diesel and the entire Cess on petrol, the allocation of funds for different
categories of roads are as under:
12.5 per cent for Road Over Bridges/Rail Over Bridges (to be constructed by Railways)
The balance Cess at the rate of Rs 0.50 per litre (levied in 2005-06) is allocated exclusively for NH
22
The government has put in place appropriate policy, institutional and regulatory mechanisms including a set of
fiscal and financial incentives to encourage increased private sector participation in road sector. In order to further
augment flow of funds to the sector and to encourage private sector participation in the road sector, several
initiatives have been taken by the Government which include:
o
Provision of capital grants subsidy upto 40 per cent of project cost to enhance viability of the projects on
case-to-case basis
Duty-free import of certain identified high quality construction plants and equipments
100 per cent tax exemption in any consecutive 10 years within a period of 15 years after completion of
construction provided the project involves addition of new lanes
Provision of encumbrance-free site for work, i.e. the government shall meet all expenses relating to land
and other pre-construction activities;
23
68 per cent in 2011-12 from 22 per cent in 2008-09. Consequently, premium has become a major source of inflow
for NHAI.
Real GDP
(2011-12)
GDP grow th
(2004-05 to
2011-12)
(Rs trillion)
(per cent)
2001
2011
(per cent)
Rs
India
52.4
8.5
1,028.7
1,210.2
1.6
42,630
Andhra Pradesh
4.1
8.9
75.7
84.7
1.1
47,640
Bihar
1.5
10.0
82.9
103.8
2.3
14,306
Chattisgarh
1.5
8.6
20.8
25.5
2.1
56,900
Goa
0.2
8.9
1.4
1.5
0.7
157,571
Gujarat
3.7
10.3
50.7
60.4
1.8
60,496
Haryana
1.8
9.4
21.1
25.4
1.8
69,520
Himachal Pradesh
0.4
8.3
6.1
6.9
1.2
60,568
0.4
6.0
10.2
12.6
2.1
31,961
Jharkhand
0.9
6.3
26.9
33.0
2.0
27,178
Karnataka
2.9
8.3
52.9
61.2
1.5
47,022
Kerala
2.1
8.3
31.9
33.4
0.5
62,143
Madhya Pradesh
2.0
8.7
60.3
72.6
1.9
32,377
Maharashtra
8.1
9.9
96.9
112.4
1.5
70,584
Orissa
1.4
8.5
36.8
41.9
1.3
32,377
Punjab
1.6
7.1
24.2
27.6
1.3
55,761
Rajasthan
2.2
7.8
56.5
68.6
2.0
30,794
Tamil Nadu
4.2
9.6
62.4
72.2
1.5
56,912
Uttar Pradesh
4.2
7.0
166.2
199.6
1.8
20,663
Uttarakhand
0.6
13.7
8.5
10.2
1.8
59,149
West Bengal
3.3
6.9
80.2
91.3
1.3
36,045
States
Population
(m illion)
Of the aforementioned states, Gujarat, Bihar and Maharashtra have exhibited higher economic growth of 10.3 per
cent, 10.0 per cent and 9.9 per cent, respectively (against the countrys growth of 8.5 per cent).
24
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
(Budget
(Revised
(Budget
(Budget
(Accounts) (Accounts) (Accounts)
Estim ates) Estim ates) Estim ates) Estim ates)
Andhra Pradesh
12
10
19
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
10
Bihar
25
31
41
39
Chattisgarh
10
14
Goa
Gujarat
13
14
18
Haryana
12
12
Himachal Pradesh
J&K
Jharkhand
Karnataka
20
Kerala
19
28
10
12
41
38
13
27
18
21
11
12
10
17
16
24
29
26
30
30
14
13
21
27
Madhya Pradesh
16
20
20
19
17
23
Maharashtra
20
31
24
28
27
31
31
Manipur*
Meghalaya
Mizoram*
Nagaland*
Orissa
10
13
15
12
17
Punjab
Rajasthan
12
14
Sikkim
Tamil Nadu
27
27
30
35
30
40
Tripura*
Uttarakhand
Uttar Pradesh
49
41
46
48
53
50
West Bengal
13
NCR
11
19
14
10
15
Puducherry
Total
263
306
346
383
389
456
587
Note: Budget estimates are initial planned expenditure. Revised estimates are calculated after budget estimates while Accounts are the
actual final expenditure. All values in INR billion.
*: Represents overall transport expenditure
Source: RBI, CRISIL Research
25
From 2004-05 to 2011-12, tertiary sector was the highest contributor to the state real GSDP. The contribution of
services sector to state GSDP increased from 51 per cent in 2004-05 to 57 per cent in 2013-14. Growth in tertiary
sector was also the highest among the sectors. It grew at a CAGR of 9.7 per cent over the past 9 years. This
growth was driven by communications, banking and insurance sector. Industrial sector is the next biggest
contributor to state GSDP. Its contribution to state economy has remained stable at nearly 24 per cent during the
past 9 years and is expected to grow further owing to Industrial Investment Policy introduced by the government.
Contribution of primary sector to state GSDP has however decreased from 25 per cent in 2004-05 to 19 per cent in
2013-14. Growth in primary sector was also the slowest during the period. It grew at a CAGR of 5.0 per cent during
the past decade.
Growth in GSDP
Rs billion
5,000
CAGR
14.0%
4,500
8.2%
State GDP
9.7%
Primary
7.7%
Secondary
5.0%
Tertiary
7.6%
India GDP
12.0%
4,000
10.0%
3,500
3,000
2,500
6.0%
1,264
864
1,054
1,068
783
1,059
706
950
600
839
546
563
598
610
716
721
723
759
765
820
873
4.0%
2.0%
Primary
Tertiary
All India GDP growth
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
0.0%
2008-09
1,839
2007-08
500
1,717
1,138
2006-07
1,000
1,568
8.0%
2005-06
1,500
1,422
2,287
2,618
2004-05
2,000
2,115
2,446
Secondary
Andhra Pradesh GSDP growth
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
1
The GSDP is divided into three categories which are primary, secondary and tertiary. Primary GSDP consists of contribution from agriculture &
allied services and mining & quarrying sector. Secondary GSDP consists of contribution from industrial sector which includes manufacturing,
construction sector etc. Tertiary GSDP consists of the contribution from services sector.
26
The population of Andhra Pradesh as of 2011 is 84.7 million where males and females have an almost equal share
at around 42.3 million each. The population registered a decadal growth of 12 per cent from 2001 to 2011 as
against the national rate of 18 per cent. The state accounts for about 7 per cent of the population of India and ranks
th
5 among the states in the country with respect to population. The population of the state was around 75.7 million
in 2001.
In terms of per capita income, Andhra Pradesh (Rs 46,681) was slightly higher than the national average of Rs
46,568 in 2013-14, thus indicating high level of economic activity in the state and its socio economic development.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 36.8 per cent from Rs 8 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 28 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 33 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Population growth (Census 2001 and 2011)
Bihar
Bihar witnessed strong economic growth from 2004-05 to 2013-14, recording an impressive CAGR of 9.7 per cent,
driven primarily by a healthy double-digit growth in the states industrial and services sectors. Its growth has been
considerably faster than Indias average growth of 7.6 per cent CAGR during the same period.
The states GSDP is estimated to be Rs 1.8 trillion in 2013-14 and it contributes to about 3 per cent of Indias
overall GDP of around Rs 57 trillion. It was the second fastest growing state in India during the past nine years. It
remained largely unaffected from the global economic crisis, which is evident from the strong growth rate of 12.2
per cent registered in 2008-09. In fact, most of the other states in India witnessed sluggish growth in 2008-09 on
the back of the global economic slowdown. However, despite strong economic growth, the state remains one of the
poorest in the country in terms of per capita income.
From 2004-05 to 2013-14, tertiary sector has been the highest contributor to the state real GSDP. The contribution
of services sector to state GSDP increased to 57 per cent in 2013-14 from 55 per cent in 2004-05. The contribution
of secondary sector to state economy increased from 14 per cent in 2004-05 to 23 per cent in 2013-14, but lower
27
than the national average of about 25 per cent, reflecting below average presence of large industries in the state.
On the other hand, the contribution of primary sector to state GSDP is much higher as compared to all-India
average. However, the share of primary sector to state economy has significantly declined to 20 per cent in 201314 from 32 per cent in 2004-05.Growth in secondary sector was highest among the sectors. It expanded at a
CAGR of 16.0 per cent over the past 9 years. Construction sector is the biggest contributor to the states secondary
sector with over 60 per cent contribution. The healthy growth in construction sector was on the back of major
infrastructure investments in roads, power etc. Followed by tertiary sector, which grew at a CAGR of 10 per cent
over the same period. Trade, hotel and restaurants and financial services sector are the biggest contributors to
tertiary sector in the state economy. It contributes nearly half of the states tertiary sector.
The contribution of registered manufacturing units to states secondary sector is relatively much lower at around 10
per cent as compared to other states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, etc, where registered
manufacturing units contribute more than half of the secondary sector output. At the same time, the primary sector
witnessed a modest annual growth of 4.8 per cent.
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
The population of Bihar as of 2011 is 103.8 million. The population registered an annual growth of 2.3 per cent from
2001 to 2011 as against the national average of 1.7 per cent. The state accounts for about 8.6 per cent of the
population of India and is the third most populous state in the country. Population of males and females increased
at a CAGR of 2.3 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively during this period. Population of males increased to 54.2
million, whereas population of females increased to 49.6 million in 2011.
In terms of per capita income, Bihar (Rs 16,083) compared unfavourably with the national average of Rs 46,568 in
2013-14.
28
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 11.0 per cent from Rs 25 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 38 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 42 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Population growth (Census 2001 and 2011)
Chhattisgarh
Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Chhattisgarh is estimated to be around Rs 1.0 trillion for 2013-14. The
state contributes to about 1.7 per cent of Indias GDP of around Rs 57 trillion. The states GSDP grew at a CAGR
of 7.6 per cent during 2004-05 to 2013-14, in line with Indias growth rate of 7.6 per cent during the same period.
Growth in state economy was lower in 2009-10 mainly due to global economic downturn. Secondary sector of the
state declined by 3 per cent in 2009-10. Indian economy is led by the tertiary sector. The primary, secondary and
tertiary sectors contribute around 15 per cent, 25 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively, to the national economy.
Against this, contribution of primary sector to state economy was at around 19 per cent in 2013-14, contribution of
secondary sector was 39 per cent and that of tertiary sector was only 42 per cent.
Contribution of primary sector is larger due to the large contribution of the mining sector to state economy. Mining
sector contributes 10-11 per cent to the state economy, as against a contribution of 2 per cent to Indias GDP.
Chhattisgarh has large reserves of iron ore and coal; hence contribution of mining and secondary sector is much
larger to state GSDP. Primary sector grew at a CAGR of 6.3 per cent during the past 9 years. Growth in primary
sector was low, mainly due to poor performance in 2008-09, which was due to drought in the state and its
contribution declined by 4 per cent in the year. Growth in secondary sector too was lower. It grew at a CAGR of 6.1
per cent during the past 9 years. This was driven by growth in construction activity. Tertiary sector was the driver of
state economic growth during the past 9 years. It grew at a CAGR of 9.9 per cent over the same period. Growth in
tertiary sector was driven by growth in banking and insurance sector, which grew at a CAGR of 24.2 per cent
during the past 5 years.
29
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
The population of Chhattisgarh as of 2011 is 25.5 million. The population registered an annual growth of 2.1 per
cent from 2001 to 2011 as against the national rate of 1.7 per cent. The state accounts for about 2.1 per cent of the
population of India and ranks 16th amongst the states in the country with respect to population.
In terms of per capital income, Chhattisgarh (Rs 28,708) compares far below the national average of Rs 46,568 for
the year 2013-14. This in turn indicates poor economic activity and socio-economic development in Chhattisgarh.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 28.2 per cent from Rs 10 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 27 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 40 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Population growth (Census 2001 and 2011)
30,000
25,000
20,000
21,580
24,189
22,929 23,926
25,991 25,971
27,400
28,708
18,559 18,530
15,000
10,000
5,000
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
30
Goa
Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Goa is estimated at Rs 0.3 trillion (Rs 298 billion) for 2012-13. The state
contributes to about 0.5 per cent of Indias GDP of around Rs 55 trillion. The states GSDP grew at a CAGR of 11.2
per cent from 2004-05 to 2012-13, better than Indias growth rate of 8.0 per cent during the same period. Despite
global economic downturn, growth in state economy was at 10.0 per cent in 2008-09. Growth in tertiary sector of
the state increased at a healthy rate of 17 per cent in 2012-13.
Contribution of primary sector to state economy was much lower at around 3 per cent in 2012-13, contribution of
secondary sector was 32 per cent and contribution of tertiary sector was 65 per cent. Among the three sectors,
primary sector has remined stagnant in terms of growth during the past 9 years. Wherea growth in secondary
sector was relatively better at 6.0 per cent. This was driven by growth in construction activity. Tertiary sector was
the driver of state economic growth during the past 9 years. It grew at a CAGR of 16.4 per cent during the past 9
years.
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
The population of Goa as of 2011 is 1.5 million only. The population registered an annual growth of 0.7 per cent
from 2001 to 2011(decadal growth 7 per cent) as against the countrys annual growth rate of 1.7 per cent.
In terms of per capita income, Goa (Rs 145,923) compares well above the national average of Rs 45,046 for the
year 2012-13. Thus, this indicates increased economic activity and socio-economic development in Goa.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 10.7 per cent from Rs 2 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 3 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 3 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
31
Gujarat
Gujarat has shown strong economic growth from 2004-05 to 2012-13, recording an impressive CAGR of 9.7 per
cent, driven primarily by a healthy double-digit growth in the states industrial and services sectors. Its growth has
been considerably faster than Indias average 7.6 per cent CAGR during the same time period.
The Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) is estimated at Rs 4.2 trillion for the year 2012-13. In terms of real
GSDP, Gujarat was ranked among the top 5 states in India in 2012-13. The state contributes to about 7.3 per cent
of Indias GDP of Rs around 57 trillion. The economy suffered a dip in GDP growth in the year 2008-09 majorly
because of the economic slowdown resulting from the financial crisis observed during that period. However, this
was in line with Indias growth average of 6.7 per cent.
From 2004-05 to 2012-13, services sector has been the highest contributor to the state real GSDP, with an
average contribution of nearly 50 per cent, followed closely by the industrial sector with an average contribution of
39 per cent. Together these have accounted for around 89 per cent of GSDP during the period. During 2004-05 to
2012-13, both industrial and service sectors recorded an impressive 9 per cent plus growth, which drove the states
economy. Services sector grew marginally quicker at a CAGR of around 11.1 per cent compared with the industrial
sector, that grew at around 9.4 per cent. This growth can primarily be attributed to the growth initiatives undertaken
by the state government over the past few years. Within the services sector, trade and hospitality business grew
the fastest at 11 per cent from 2006-07 to 2010-11; whereas, a robust 21 per cent growth in the construction sector
enabled the state to maintain high growth in the industrial sector. However, the primary sector growth slowed down
to 4.8 per cent during 2004-05 to 2012-13. This indicates decreased dependence of the state on the agriculture
sector.
32
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
Gujarat is one of the most prosperous states in India. The population of the state as of 2011 is 60.4 million
comprising 31.5 million males and 28.9 million females; showing a growth of 19 per cent over the last decade.
th
Gujarat accounts for about 5 per cent of the population of India and ranks 10 amongst the states in the country
with respect to population.
In terms of per capita income, Gujarat (Rs 61,220) compares above the national average of Rs 45,046 for the year
2012-13. Thus, this indicates increased economic activity and socio-economic development in Gujarat.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 23.6 per cent from Rs 9 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 21 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 44 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
33
Haryana
Haryana contributes to 3.5 per cent of Indias GDP of around Rs 57 trillion. The states GSDP has increased
consistently in the past 9 years and is estimated to be at Rs 2.0 trillion as of 2013-14. GSDP grew at a CAGR of
8.6 per cent during 2004-05 to 2013-14, higher than 7.6 per cent growth in Indias GDP during the same period. In
the past 9 years, growth was lower in 2008-09 owing to the global economic downturn. However, the states
economy bounced back and growth improved to 11.7 per cent in 2009-10.
In 2011-12, growth slowed down to 7.8 per cent and has since replicated the Indian economy which witnessed a
slowdown in said period. Sluggish growth in manufacturing, trade, hotels & restaurants sector and transport by
other means were mainly responsible for the fall in the GSDP growth in 2012-13.
From 2004-05 to 2013-14, the tertiary sector was the largest contributor to the state GSDP. Its share in total state
GSDP increased to 58 per cent in 2013-14 from 44 per cent in 2004-05. Growth in the tertiary/ services sector was
also the highest among the sectors. It grew at a CAGR of 12.0 per cent during the past 9 years. This growth was
driven by trade, hotels, real estate, finance, insurance, transport and communications. The industrial sector was the
next biggest contributor to state GSDP. Its contribution to state economy has declined from about 33 per cent in
2004-05 to about 27 per cent in the past 9 years. During the period, the industrial sector grew at a CAGR of 6.2 per
cent, driven by manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas and water supply. Contribution of primary sector to state
GSDP also decreased marginally to 15 per cent in 2013-14 from 23 per cent in 2004-05. It grew at a CAGR of 3.6
per cent during the past 7 years.
34
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
Being a relatively smaller state (in terms of area), Haryana is home to just 2 per cent of the countrys total
population. Growth in population has however, slowed to 1.8 per cent. As of 2011, Haryanas population stood at
25.4 million. Despite an increase in female population over 2001 to 2011, Haryanas sex ratio still remains much
below the national average of 940 per thousand males.
With a per capita income of Rs 68,040, Haryana compares favourably with the national average of Rs 46,568 as of
2013-14. Historically too, the states per capita income has remained higher than the all-India average. This
indicates the heightened economic activity in the state and the level of socio-economic development in Haryana.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 14.4 per cent from Rs 7 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 12 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 28 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
35
Himachal Pradesh
Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Himachal Pradesh is estimated at Rs 0.5 trillion (Rs 473 billion) for 201314. The state contributes to just about 0.9 per cent of Indias GDP of around Rs 57 trillion. The states GSDP grew
at a CAGR of 7.8 per cent during 2004-05 to 2013-14, slightly higer than Indias growth rate of 7.6 per cent during
the same period.
Contribution of primary sector to state economy was at around 19 per cent in 2013-14, contribution of secondary
sector was 38 per cent and contribution of tertiary sector was 43 per cent. Among the three sectors, growth in
primary sector was the lowest during the past 9 years. Primary sector grew at a CAGR of 4.1 per cent during the
past 9 years. Growth in primary sector was low, mainly due to poor performance in 2008-09, primary sector
contribution declined by 200 basis points (bps) in the year. Growth in secondary sector was relatively better at 7.7
per cent CAGR 9 years. Tertiary sector was the driver of state economic growth during the past 9 years, wherein it
posted a CAGR of 10.0 per cent.
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
36
The population of Himachal Pradesh as of 2011 was only 6.9 million. The population registered an annual growth
of 1.2 per cent (decadal growth 13 per cent) from 2001 to 2011 as against the national rate of 1.7 per cent.
Per capita income grew to Rs 65,494 in 2013-14 from Rs 33,348 in 2004-05, registering a CAGR of about 5.6 per
cent during the same period. The state compares well above the national average and hence indicates increased
economic activity. Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 8.8 per cent from Rs 5 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 7 billion
in 2012-13. An investment of Rs 5 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Contribution of primary sector to state economy was at around 19 per cent in 2013-14, contribution of secondary
sector was 30 per cent and contribution of tertiary sector was 52 per cent. Among the three sectors, growth in
primary sector was the lowest during the past 9 years. Primary sector grew at a CAGR of 1.9 per cent during the
past 9 years. Growth in primary sector declined to about 1 per cent in 2009-10.
Growth in secondary sector was relatively better. It expanded at a CAGR of 3.7 per cent during the past 9 years.
Tertiary sector was the driver of state economic growth during the past 7 years. It grew at a CAGR of 8.9 per cent
during the past 9 years.
37
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
The population of J & K as of 2011 was 12.6 million. The population registered an annual growth of 2.1 per cent
(decadal growth 24 per cent) from 2001 to 2011 as against the national rate of 1.7 per cent.
In terms of per capita income, J & K (Rs 31,773) compares below the national average of Rs 46,568 for the year
2013-14. Thus, this indicates lower economic activity and socio-economic development in the state.
Road capex has declined in the past 2 years to Rs 2 billion in 2012-13 from Rs 10 billion in 2010-11. An investment
of Rs 2 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Population growth (Census 2001 and 2011)
38
Jharkhand
Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Jharkhand at constant prices is estimated at Rs 1.1 trillion for 2013-14.
The state contributes to about 1.9 per cent of Indias GDP of around Rs 57 trillion. The states real GSDP grew at a
CAGR of 7.5 per cent during 2004-05 to 2013-14, in line with Indias growth rate of 7.6 per cent during the same
period. States real GSDP grew at a very healthy 21 per cent in 2007-08. This was due to strong growth of 34 per
cent in the secondary sector. State real GSDP declined by 2 per cent in 2008-09, primarily due to a 16 per cent fall
in the secondary sector due to global economic slowdown and high base effect of the previous year.
During 2009-10 to 2013-14, tertiary sector was the highest contributor to the state real GSDP. The contribution of
services sector to state GSDP increased from 33 per cent in 2004-05 to 45 per cent in 2013-14. Growth in tertiary
sector was also the highest among the sectors. It grew at a CAGR of 11.2 per cent during the past 9 years, which
was mainly driven by communications sector. Primary sectors contribution to state economy has remained range
bound at 15-18 per cent during the past 9 years and it grew at a CAGR of 8.0 per cent over the same period.
Contribution of secondary sector to state GSDP decreased from 52 per cent in 2004-05 to 40 per cent in 2013-14.
Growth in secondary sector was the lowest among the three sectors. It increased at a CAGR of 4.3 per cent during
the period.
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
The population of Jharkhand as of 2011 was 33 million. The population registered an annual growth of 2.0 per cent
(decadal growth 22 per cent) from 2001 to 2011 as against the national rate of 1.7 per cent. The state accounts for
about 2.7 per cent of the population of India and ranks thirteenth amongst the most populous states in the country.
The per capita income of Jharkhand stands at Rs 30,091 in 2013-14 and has increased at a CAGR of 5.5 per cent
during the period 2007-08 to 2013-14. Further it compares much lower with the national average of Rs 46,568 for
39
the year 2013-14. This reflects on the gap between the overall social and economic development of the country viza-viz the state. This further has a bearing on the nature of economic activities and their contribution to the states
economy.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 41.4 per cent from Rs 8 billion in 2010-11 to Rs 16 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 26 billion is envisaged for the current year 2013-14.
Population growth (Census 2001 and 2011)
Karnataka
Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Karnataka is estimated at Rs 3.1 trillion for 2013-14. In terms of real
GSDP, Karnataka ranked among the top five states in India in 2013-14. The state contributes about 5.4 per cent of
Indias GDP of around Rs 57 trillion. The states GSDP grew at a CAGR of 7.2 per cent during 2004-05 to 2013-14,
slightly lower than Indias growth rate of 7.6 per cent. Growth in state economy was lower in 2009-10 mainly due to
poor growth in the secondary and tertiary sectors. However, growth of the state economy improved to 10.2 per cent
in 2010-11 due to improved growth across sectors. However the growth rate moderated to 3.3 per cent in 2011-12,
in line with the slowdown in the Indian economy.
From 2004-05 to 2013-14, tertiary sector was the highest contributor to the states real GSDP. The contribution of
services sector to state GSDP increased to 59 per cent in 2013-14 from 51 per cent in 2004-05. Growth in tertiary
sector was also the highest among the sectors. It grew at a CAGR of 9 per cent during the past 9 years. This
growth was driven by communications and real estate sectors. Industrial sector is the next biggest contributor to
state GSDP. Its contribution to state economy has declined from around 30 per cent in 2004-05 to around 27 per
cent during the past 9 years. Contribution of primary sector to state GSDP has decreased to 13 per cent over the
past 9 years. It grew at a CAGR of 3.1 per cent.
40
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
The population of Karnataka as of 2011 was 61.2 million. The population registered an annual growth of 1.5 per
cent (decadal growth 16 per cent) from 2001 to 2011 as against the national average of 1.7 per cent. The state
accounts for about 5 per cent of the population of India and ranks 9th amongst the states in the country with
respect to population.
In terms of per capita income, Karnataka compares slightly lower at Rs 44,857 as against the national average of
Rs 46,568 for the year 2013-14. Also, the per capita income has increased at a CAGR of 5.9 per cent during the
period 2004-05 to 2013-14.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 10.7 per cent from Rs 20 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 30 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 53 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Population growth (Census 2001 and 2011)
41
Kerala
Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Kerala is estimated at Rs 2.22 trillion for 2012-13. The state contributes
to about 4 per cent of Indias GDP of around Rs 57 trillion. The states GSDP grew at a CAGR of 8.1 per cent in the
period from 2004-05 to 2012-13, almost in line with Indias growth rate of 7.6 per cent during the same period.
Growth in state economy was lower in 2008-09 mainly due to the global economic crisis.
From 2004-05 to 2012-13, tertiary sector has been the highest contributor to the state real GSDP. The contribution
of tertiary sector to state GSDP increased from 60 per cent in 2004-05 to 67 per cent in 2012-13. Growth in tertiary
sector was also the highest among the sectors. It grew at a CAGR of 9.6 per cent during the past 8 years. This
growth was driven by transport, storage and communications and banking and insurance sectors. Industrial sector
is the next biggest contributor to the state GSDP. Its contribution to state economy has remained at 20-24 per cent
during the past 8 years. Contribution of primary sector to state GSDP declined from 17 per cent in 2004-05 to 9 per
cent in 2012-13. Growth in primary sector was also the slowest during this period. It declined marginally at a CAGR
of -0.6 per cent during the past eight years.
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
State GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
The population of Kerala as of 2011 was 33.4 million. The state accounts for about 3 per cent of the population of
India and is the 12th most populous state in India. For the period 2001 to 2011, the growth rate was 0.5 per cent
and the population increased from 31.9 million to 33.4 million. Among Indian states and union territories only
Nagalands population grew slower than Kerala during this period. The reason for low population growth in the
state was heavy migration from the state to Gulf countries for employment opportunities.
Further, the per capita income of the state at Rs 56,115 for 2012-13 is above India average of Rs 46,568. This is
on the back of a healthy economic size on a lower population base; economy being largely driven by the tertiary
sector.
42
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 45.6 per cent from Rs 6 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 27 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 9 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14
Population growth (Census 2001 and 2011)
Madhya Pradesh
Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Madhya Pradesh is estimated at Rs 2.4 trillion for 2013-14 and the state
contributed to around 3.9 per cent of Indias GDP of around Rs 57 trillion. The states GSDP grew at a CAGR of 8.7
per cent in the period from 2004-05 to 2013-14, better than Indias growth rate of 7.6 per cent.
During the time of global economic slowdown, the state economy recorded the highest growth in 2008-09 due to
relatively less dependence on the services sector.
From 2004-05 to 2013-14, the tertiary sector was the highest contributor to the state real GSDP. The contribution of
services sector to state GSDP has stayed level at about 45 per cent in the period from 2004-05 to 2013-14. It grew
at a CAGR of 8.7 per cent during the past 9 years. Growth in tertiary sector was driven by trade, hotels, real estate,
finance, insurance, transport, communications and other services. Secondary sector is the next biggest contributor
to state GSDP. Its contribution to state economy has declined to 26 per cent in 2013-14 as compared to 30 per
cent in 2010-11. It grew at a CAGR of 7.9 per cent during the past 9 years. Contribution of primary sector to state
GSDP has remained level at 29 per cent in 2013-14 compared to 28 per cent in 2004-05. Growth in primary sector
was relatively high during this period. It grew at a CAGR of 9.2 per cent during the past 9 years
43
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
Madhya Pradeshs population stands at 72.6 million (as of 2011). The states population registered an annual
growth of 1.9 per cent (decadal growth 20 per cent) from 2001 to 2011 as against the national rate of 1.7 per cent.
The state accounts for about 5.8 per cent of the population of India and ranks second amongst the states in the
country with respect to population.
The states per capita income stood at Rs 27,917 in 2013-14 as compared to the national average of Rs 46,568.
Thus, it can be inferred that the state lags behind in terms of socio-economic development and is yet to gain
momentum to be comparable with other large states (in terms of population) such as Karnataka, Odisha, Haryana
etc.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 9.5 per cent from Rs 16 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 23 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 55 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
44
Maharashtra
Maharashtra has shown strong economic growth from 2004-05 to 2012-13, recording an impressive CAGR of 9.3
per cent in its GSDP, driven primarily by a healthy double-digit growth in the states services sector. Its growth has
been considerably faster than Indias average GDP growth of 7.6 per cent CAGR during the same time period.
In terms of real GSDP, Maharashtra is the largest state in India. The state contributes about 16 per cent of Indias
overall real GDP of around Rs 57 trillion and is estimated to be Rs 8.4 trillion in 2012-13. The economy suffered a
dip in GDP growth in 2008-09 majorly because of the global economic slowdown. However, the impact was more
pronounced in the Maharashtra compared to all- India, as the primary sector in the state witnessed a steep decline
of 15 per cent during the year due to poor rainfall.
During 2004-05 to 2012-13, tertiary sector has been the highest contributor to the state GSDP. The contribution of
services sector to state GSDP increased to 63 per cent in 2012-13 from 60 per cent in 2004-05. Growth in tertiary
sector at 10.1 per cent CAGR over the last 8 years was the highest among the sectors. Trade, hotel and
restaurants and financial services sector are the biggest contributors to the tertiary sector of the state economy.
Growth in the secondary sector driven primarily by the construction industry, grew at CAGR of 9 per cent during
the period. The healthy growth in construction sector was due to several infrastructure investments taking place in
the state in sectors like roads, power etc. Contribution of primary sector to state GSDP is much lower compared to
the all-India average. Primary sectors contribution to state economy marginally decreased to 8 per cent in 2012-13
from 11 per cent in 2004-05. Growth in primary sector at a CAGR of 4.8 per cent was the slowest during the period.
45
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
The population of Maharashtra as of 2011 was 112.4 million. The state population registered an annual growth of
1.5 per cent (decadal growth 16 per cent) from 2001 to 2011 as against the national rate of 1.7 per cent. The state
accounts for about 9.3 per cent of the population of India and ranks second amongst the states in the country with
respect to population.
The per capita income of Maharashtra which stands at Rs. 66,066 is relatively higher compared to the national
average of Rs. 46,568. This indicates the heightened economic activity in the state and the level of socio-economic
development in Maharashtra.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 11.6 per cent from Rs 20 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 31 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 31 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Population growth (Census 2001 and 2011)
46
Odisha
Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Odisha is estimated at Rs 1.48 trillion for 2013-14. The state contributes
to about 2.6 per cent of Indias GDP of around Rs 57 trillion. The states GSDP grew at a CAGR of 7.4 per cent
during the period from 2004-05 to 2013-14, in line with Indias GDP growth rate of 7.6 per cent during the same
period. Growth in state economy was lower in 2008-09 and 2009-10 mainly due to poor growth in the primary and
secondary sectors. However, growth of the state economy improved to 8 per cent in 2010-11 due to improved
growth across sectors; particularly the secondary sector. The growth rate moderated to 5.6 per cent in 2013-14, in
line with the slowdown in the Indian economy.
During 2004-05 to 2013-14, tertiary sector was the highest contributor to the states real GSDP. The contribution of
services sector to state GSDP increased to 49 per cent in 2013-14 from 42 per cent in 2004-05. The tertiary sector
posted the highest growth; it grew at a CAGR of 9.2 per cent during the past 9 years. This growth was driven by
the communications sector and banking and insurance sector. Industrial sector is the next biggest contributor to
state GSDP. Its contribution to state economy has marginally increased to around 35 per cent in 2013-14 from
around 34 per cent in 2004-05. Contribution of the primary sector to state GSDP has also declined to around 16
per cent in 2013-14 from around 23 per cent in 2004-05. Growth in primary sector was also the slowest during the
period. It has registered a CAGR of 2.6 per cent during the past 9 years.
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
As of 2011, the population of Odisha stood at 41.9 million. The population has registered an annual growth of 1.3
per cent (decadal growth 14 per cent) from 2001 to 2011 as against the national rate of 1.7 per cent. The state
accounts for about 3 per cent of the population of India and ranks eleventh amongst the states in the country with
respect to population.
47
The per capita income of Odisha which stands at Rs. 25,891, is well below the national average of Rs 46,568 for
2013-14. This indicates the slower pace of economic activity and the level of socio-economic development in the
state.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 14.2 per cent from Rs 10 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 17 billion in 2012-13.
An investment of Rs 36 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Punjab
Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Punjab is estimated at Rs 1.73 trillion for 2013-14. The state contributes
to about 3 per cent of Indias GDP of around Rs 57 trillion. The states GSDP grew at a CAGR of 6.7 per cent
during 2004-05 to 2013-14, lower than Indias growth rate of 7.6 per cent during the same period. Growth in state
economy was lower in 2008-09.
During 2004-05 to 2013-14, tertiary sector was the highest contributor to the states real GSDP. The contribution of
services sector to state GSDP increased to 51 per cent in 2013-14 from 43 per cent in 2004-05. The secondary
sector grew at a CAGR of 8.4 per cent during the past 9 years. The tertiary sector also registered a healthy growth
of 8.7 per cent during the same period. Its contribution to state economy has increased to around 29 per cent in
2013-14 from around 25 per cent in 2004-05. Contribution of the primary sector to state GSDP has also declined to
around 21 per cent in 2013-14 from around 33 per cent in 2004-05. Growth in primary sector was also the slowest
during the period. It has registered a CAGR of 1.5 per cent during the past 9 years.
48
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
Population of the state increased to 27.6 million in 2011 from 24.2 million in 2001, registering a CAGR of about 1.3
per cent (decadal growth 14 per cent). The per capita income of the state is above the countrys average and it
grew to Rs 50,233 in 2013-14 from Rs 33,103 in 2004-05, at a CAGR of about 4.7 per cent during the same period.
This indicates the increased pace of economic activity in the state and the level of socio-economic development in
the state.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 7.5 per cent from Rs 3 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 4 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 3 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Population growth (Census 2001 and 2011)
49
Rajasthan
Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Rajasthan is estimated at Rs 2.45 trillion for 2013-14. The state
contributes to about 4.1 per cent of Indias GDP of around Rs 57 trillion. The states GSDP grew at a CAGR of 7.5
per cent during 2004-05 to 2013-14, lower than Indias growth rate of 8.5 per cent during the same period. Growth
in state economy was lower in 2009-10 mainly due to poor growth in the primary sector. However, growth of the
state economy improved to 11 per cent in 2010-11 due to improved growth across all sectors; particularly the
primary sector. The growth rate moderated to 4.6 per cent in 2013-14, in line with the slowdown in the Indian
economy.
During 2004-05 to 2013-14, tertiary sector was the highest contributor to the state real GSDP. The contribution of
services sector to state GSDP increased from 44 per cent in 2004-05 to 51 per cent in 2013-14. Growth in tertiary
sector was also the highest among the sectors. It grew at a CAGR of 9.4 per cent during the past 9 years. This
growth was driven by communications sector and banking and insurance sector. Industrial sector is the next
biggest contributor to state GSDP. Its contribution to state economy has remained range bound at 29-31 per cent
during the past 9 years. Growth in industrial sector was 6.7 per cent during the past 9 years. Contribution of
primary sector to state GSDP declined to 20 per cent in 2013-14 from 26 per cent over the past 9 years. It has
grown at a CAGR of 5.5 per cent during the past 9 years.
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
Population of the state increased to 68.6 million in 2011 from 56.5 million in 2001, registering a CAGR of about 2.0
per cent (decadal growth 21 per cent).
In terms of per capita income, Rajasthan (Rs 30,120) stands much below the national average of Rs 46,568 for the
year 2013-14. This indicates the slow economic activity in the state and the level of socio-economic development in
the state.
50
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 47.0 per cent from Rs 3 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 14 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 20 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu was ranked third in terms of real Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) amongst all states in India in
2013-14. The GSDP of the state is estimated at Rs 4.8 trillion for 2013-14, contributing to about 7.9 per cent of
Indias GDP of around Rs 57 trillion.
The GSDP grew at a CAGR of 9.1 per cent during 2004-05 to 2013-14, about 150 basis points higher than Indias
growth rate of 7.6 per cent during the same period. The state economy experienced a dip in growth during 2008-09
mainly owing to the negative growth of primary and secondary sectors. However, the performance of the state
economy improved significantly in 2010-11, clocking a growth rate of around13 per cent over the previous year due
to improved growth across all sectors. The growth however moderated in 2013-14 to 6.1 per cent, in line with
slowdown in the Indian economy, but still much higher than Indias GDP growth of 5 per cent.
During 2004-05 to 2013-14, tertiary sector was the highest contributor to the state real GSDP. The contribution of
services sector to state GSDP increased to 62 per cent in 2013-14 from 57 per cent in 2004-05. Growth in services
sector was also the highest among the sectors. It grew at a CAGR of 10.1 per cent during the past 9 years. The
governments strong policy framework towards growth of services sector mainly Information Technology and
Electronics led to the proliferation and development of these industries in the state. There exists dedicated large
economic zones for IT and electronics in and around the areas of Old Mahabalipuram Road (OMR) and
Sriperumbudur, respectively in Chennai.
Industrial sector, one of the drivers of the economy grew at a CAGR of around 8.6 per cent and its contribution to
state economy has declined marginally to 30 per cent in 2013-14 from 32 per cent in 2004-05. The state's
diversified industrial base, competitiveness in both labour intensive and capital intensive sectors due to rich human
capital, right set of policy measures and comfortable linkages between banks and businesses have been the
drivers for this growth.
51
The contribution of primary sector to state GSDP also decreased from 11 per cent in 2004-05 to 7 per cent in
2013-14. Growth in primary sector was also the slowest during the period. It grew at a CAGR of 4.2 per cent during
the past nine years.
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
The population of Tamil Nadu as of 2011 was 72.2 million. The population registered an annual growth of 1.5 per
cent (decadal growth 16 per cent) from 2001 to 2011 as against the national rate of 1.7 per cent. The state
accounts for about 6 per cent of the population of India and ranks 9th amongst the states in the country with
respect to population.
The per capita income, Tamil Nadu (Rs 62,589) stands higher than the national average of Rs 46,568 for the year
2013-14. This reflects that the state has been able to maintain its growth momentum in line with the overall
economic development in the country.
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 10.3 per cent from Rs 27 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 40 billion in 2012-13.
An investment of Rs 99 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
52
The tertiary sector has been the highest contributor to the state real GSDP during the period 2004-05 to 2013-14.
The contribution of services sector to the state GSDP increased from 47 per cent in 2004-05 to 57 per cent in
2013-14. The contribution of primary and secondary sectors to the state economy has remained broadly in the
range of 23-30 per cent during the past 9 years.
The tertiary sector grew at a CAGR of 8.9 per cent during the period 2004-05 to 2013-14, the highest amongst the
sectors in the state. Sectors such as trade, hotels, real estate, finance, insurance, transport, communications and
other services, have been the key growth drivers. Growth in the secondary sector was driven by manufacturing,
construction and electricity, gas and water supply. The sector grew at 5.8 per cent during the last 9 years, next to
the tertiary sector. The primary sector recorded the slowest growth of 3 per cent during the same period as its
share declined from 30 per cent in 2004-05 to 22 per cent in 2013-14. However, the state continues to be agrarian
in nature, given that agriculture constitutes a considerable share in the states GSDP and is a source of livelihood
to majority of households. The share of secondary sector also marginally declined to 22 per cent in 2013-14 from
26 per cent in 2007-08; on the other hand, the share of the tertiary sector grew to 57 per cent in 2013-14, from 48
per cent in 2007-08. Sustained high growth in financial services, during the past few years, further augurs well for
the growth prospects of the state.
53
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
Uttar Pradeshs population reported an annual growth rate of 1.8 per cent (decadal growth 20 per cent) to 199.6
million in 2011, from 166.2 million in 2001. In comparison, the all-India population recorded a slightly lower annual
growth rate of 1.7 per cent. As per Census 2011, UP is the most populous state of India and accounts for almost
16.5 per cent of the total domestic population.
In terms of the per capita income, Uttar Pradesh (Rs 19,512) performs poorly as compared with the national
average of Rs 46,568 for the year 2013-14. This signals the need for increased economic activity and enhanced
socio-economic development.
Road capex has increased only marginally at a CAGR of 0.5 per cent from Rs 49 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 50 billion
in 2012-13. An investment of Rs 11 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
54
Uttarakhand
Uttarakhands GSDP outpaced the growth of the national GDP and registered a CAGR of about 12.7 per cent
between 2004-05 and 2013-14 and increased to Rs 0.73 trillion (Rs 730 billion) in 2013-14 from Rs 0.25 trillion (Rs
248 billion) in 2004-05. Between 2004-05 and 2013-14, agriculture, industrial and services GDP registered a CAGR
of about 2.7 per cent, 16.7 per cent and 13.3 per cent, respectively.
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
Population of the state increased to 10.2 million in 2011 from 8.5 million in 2001, registering a CAGR of about 1.8
per cent (decadal growth 20 per cent) almost in line with the national average. Per capita income of the state was
nearly the same as Indias average in 2004-05; however post 2006-07, per capita income outpaced the national
average and grew to Rs 61,106 in 2013-14 from Rs 27,218 in 2004-05, at a CAGR of about 10.6 per cent.
55
Road capex has increased at a CAGR of 3.4 per cent from Rs 7 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 8 billion in 2012-13. An
investment of Rs 13 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Population growth (Census 2001 and 2011)
West Bengal
Gross state domestic product (GSDP) of West Bengal is estimated to be Rs 3.8 trillion. In terms of real GSDP,
West Bengal ranked sixth among the states in India in 2013-14. The state contributes to about 6.5 per cent of
Indias GDP of around Rs 52 trillion.
The states GDP increased at a CAGR of about 6.9 per cent between 2004-05 and 2013-14, slightly lower than
India growth rate of 8.5 per cent. Growth in state economy was slightly lower in 2008-09 mainly due to global
economic slowdown.
During 2007-08 to 2013-14, tertiary sector was the highest contributor to the state real GSDP. The contribution of
services sector to state GSDP increased from 54 per cent in 2004-05 to 64 per cent in 2013-14. Growth in tertiary
sector was also the highest among the sectors. It grew at a CAGR of 8.9 per cent during the past 9 years.
Secondary sector is the next biggest contributor to state GSDP. Its contribution to state economy has remained at
around 19 per cent during the past 5 years. It grew at a CAGR of 5.4 per cent during the past 9 years. Contribution
of primary sector to state GSDP has decreased from 24 per cent in 2004-05 to 16 per cent in 2013-14. Growth in
primary sector was also the slowest during the period. It grew at a CAGR of 2.5 per cent during the past 9 years.
56
Growth in GSDP
State GDP
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
India GDP
Note: The top and bottom box represents consolidated state GDP and India GDP respectively
Source: MoSPI, CRISIL Research
The population of West Bengal as of 2011 was 91.3 million. The population registered an annual growth of about
1.3 per cent (decadal growth 14 per cent) from 2001 to 2011 as against the national rate of 1.7 per cent. The state
accounts for about 7.5 per cent of the population of India and ranks fourth amongst all states in the country with
respect to population.
In terms of per capita income, West Bengal (Rs 37,511) is below the national average of Rs 46,568 for the year
2013-14. Thus, this indicates the need to improve economic activity in the state and the level of socioeconomic
development in West Bengal.
Road capex has increased significantly at a CAGR of 44.3 per cent from Rs 3 billion in 2008-09 to Rs 13 billion in
2012-13. An investment of Rs 20 billion was envisaged for the year 2013-14.
Population growth (Census 2001 and 2011)
57
During 2007-08 to 2012-13, overall investments increased at a CAGR of 15.7 per cent to Rs 516 billion in 2012-13
from Rs 249 billion in 2007-08.
463
400
300
380
364
293
249
200
100
0
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
Note: State road includes state highways and other district roads.
Source: CRISIL Research
58
2013-14P
2014-15P
2015-16P
2016-17P
2017-18P
P: Projected
Source: CRISIL Research
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13E
106
152
188
148
96
109
41,231
52,405
60,117
45,100
30,995
25,726
E: Estimates
Note: 2012-13 numbers are CRISIL Research estimated as the published data is only till December
Source: CRISIL Research
Higher focus was given to new connectivity projects rather than upgradation works
Projects in LWE -affected area (Left Wing Extremism) areas and those funded by ADB, World Bank, Bharat
Nirman were implemented
59
188
180
152
160
148
140
120
109
106
96
100
80
60
40
20
0
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13E
E: Estimates
Note: 2012-13 numbers are CRISIL Research estimated as the published data is only till December.
Source: National Rural Roads Development Agency,CRISIL Research
45,100
41,231
40,000
30,995
30,000
25,726
20,000
10,000
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13E
E: Estimates; Note: 2012-13 numbers are CRISIL Research estimated as the published data is only till December
Source: CRISIL Research
60
2013-14P
120
2014-15P
133
2015-16P
148
2016-17P
164
2017-18P
183
27,012
28,363
30,065
31,868
33,780
E: Estimates
Source: CRISIL Research
The implementation of projects was slow in the initial phase of the PMGSY. A part of PMGSY was brought under
the Bharat Nirman programme in 2005-06 in order to improve the execution of rural roads. Implementation of rural
road projects under the PMGSY showed a steady increase from 2005-06 till 2009-10. There has, however, been a
slowdown in execution since 2010-11.
The funding issues are expected to be gradually resolved over the next five years. CRISIL Research expects an
improvement in execution and investments to grow at a CAGR of 10.9 per cent over the next five years from about
Rs 109 billion in 2012-13 to Rs 183 billion in 2017-18.
Rs bn
200
183
180
33,780
35,000
164
160
40,000
31,868
148
30,000
133
140
25,726
120
120
27,012
28,363
30,065
25,000
109
100
20,000
80
15,000
60
10,000
40
5,000
20
0
2012-13E
2013-14P
2014-15P
2015-16P
2016-17P
2017-18P
2012-13E
2013-14P
2014-15P
2015-16P
2016-17P
2017-18P
H) Key snippets
With 4.7 million km of total road network, India has the second largest road network in the world, however
only half of this road network is surfaced and the road quality has not been at par with global benchmarks.
Road investments have grown at a CAGR of about 11 per cent in the past four years. It has been primarily
driven by economic growth, increasing government thrust, preference of road in freight traffic, increased
private participation and increase in passenger traffic and vehicle density.
61
Government initiatives like National Highway Development Programme (NHDP), Pradhan Mantri Gram
Sadak Yojna (PMGSY), Central Road Fund act (2000), increased private sector participation and other
initiatives like viability gap funding, tax benefit have driven road investments in the past.
During 2008-09 to 2012-13, investments on National Highways have registered a CAGR of about 16.2 per
cent to Rs 295 billion in 2012-13 from Rs 162 billion in 2008-09. Awarding of National Highway projects
have picked up pace from 2008-09 onwards from 1,872 km to about 7,283 km in 2011-12, increasing at a
CAGR of about 57 per cent. However, it has dipped significantly to a low of 1,933 km in 2012-13, impacted
by the weak financial position of players, delays in project clearances and low estimated traffic density for
many stretches on offer.
CRISIL Research expects an average of 11.5 km per day of roads to be constructed / upgraded at an
estimated cost of Rs 1,945 billion from 2013-14 to 2017-18.
62
MORTH
(Release and allocation of funds for development and
maintenance of national highways)
MORD
(Release and allocation of funds for development
and maintenance of rural roads)
Central level
Road dept
NHAI
(NHDP implimentation, operations and
maintenance)
Secretary
(Panchayat Raj)
Panchayat Raj
engineering debt
(For construction and
maintenance of rural
roads)
State level
63
At the Central level, the Planning Commission in consultation with the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways
(MoRTH) and the Ministry of Rural Development (MoRD) prepares the overall policy, programme development and
resource planning. MoRTH's duties relate to policies on road transport and the development and maintenance of
National Highways.
National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) is the implementing agency for implementation, operation and
maintenance of National Highways. NHAI was constituted and operationalised in February 1995; it was given the
status of an autonomous corporate body under the control of the Ministry of Road Transport and Highway
(MoRTH). However, the Central government, in view of national interests, has powers to divest NHAI of its
responsibilities.
At the state level, the overall policy, programme development and resource planning is done by the State Planning
Cell in consultation with the Central level Planning Commission and the state ministry of roads.
State Public Works Department (PWDs) and Road Development Corporations are the implementing agencies at
the state level. They implement, operate and maintain the state highways, major district roads and rural roads in a
few states.
The Ministry of Rural Development (MoRD) is responsible for policy development as well as monitoring and
coordination of rural roads. Apart from the state PWDs, the Panchayati Raj also implements the construction and
maintenance of rural roads. The ministries allocate and release funds, for the development of roads, to the
respective implementing agencies.
100 per cent foreign direct equity investment (FDI) allowed in road sector projects.
Provision of capital subsidy of up to 40 per cent of the project cost to make projects commercially viable.
Provision of encumbrance free site for work, i.e. the government shall meet all expenses relating to land
and other pre-construction activities.
As per a recent RBI directive, loans for PPP projects can be considered as secured subject to certain
conditions.
64
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved the proposal to facilitate harmonious substitution of
concessionaire in ongoing and completed National Highway projects. This will expedite implementation of
road infrastructure in the country and insulate the NHAI from heavy financial claims and unnecessary
disputes.
Harness private sector efficiencies in asset creation, maintenance and service delivery.
Provide focus on life cycle approach for development of a project, involving asset creation and
maintenance over its life cycle;
Enable affordable and improved services to the users in a responsible and sustainable manner.
While the preferred form of PPP model is the one in which the ownership of the underlying asset remains with the
private entity during the contract period and project gets transferred back to public entity on contract termination,
the final decision on the form of PPP is taken using the value for money analysis.
The following are a few models in operation:
i.
BOT (Build-operate-transfer)
ii.
iii.
Toll collection
iv.
*Please note that toll collection and OMT are indirect forms of PPP model as it involves partnership between a
public and private entity.
Electronic toll collection is a strategic focus area for the regulatory and the administrative bodies involved in the
process of toll collection. Electronic toll collection presents several advantages in terms of limiting toll leakages,
reducing waiting time for vehicles and improving the overall traffic flow at the toll plazas. In future, this may result in
significant change to the operating procedures relating to toll collection followed in each of the above PPP models.
65
Type of
Description
Project
BOT
(Toll)
Development
risk
Private Party
builds road,
Concessionaire
undertakes O&M
and collects toll
Private Party
builds road,
undertakes O&M
BOT
and collects
Concessionaire
(Annuity)
annuity from
granting
authority
Private Party
builds the road,
EPC
money is spent
Concessionaire
by the
government
Financing
risk
Concession
Period
Award
Criteria
Concessionaire
No
Toll
Around 20-25
years for NHAI
Highest revenue
sharing bid
Concessionaire
Authority
Annuity
Payments
Around 20-25
years for NHAI
Lowest Annuity
Authority
Authority
Yes
Contract Amount
Not required
Lowest Tarrif
requested
Concessionaire
OMT
Private party
No development
collects toll and except in case of Concessionaire
undertakes O&M paved shoulders
Concessionaire
No
Toll
Highest % of toll
Around 9 years
revenues or
for NHAI projects highest premium
per year
Tolling
Private Party
pays the
estimated toll
upfront to the
authority and
collects the toll
during the
concession
period
Concessionaire
No
Toll
No development
Concessionaire
Note: Development risk refers to construction risk related to developing the road project.
Source: CRISIL Research
i. BOT (Build-operate-transfer)
These contracts are typically public private partnership (PPP) agreements, whereby a government agency provides
the private player, rights to build, operate and maintain a facility on public land for a fixed period, after which assets
are transferred back to the public authority. Funding for the project is arranged by the concessionaire, through a
mix of equity and debt from banks and other financial institutions. The concessionaire charges a user fee from the
users of the project/ facility. The concessionaire may either transfer the entire user fee collected, to the authority or
may retain the entire amount as revenue. BOT contracts are therefore classified as:
BOT annuity-based: Under this contract, the concessionaire is responsible for construction and maintenance of
the project, during the concession period. The concessionaire collects the user fee and transfers it to the public
authority. Variability in the user fee gives rise to revenue risk, which is borne by the concessioning authority.
However, the concessionaire generates revenue through fixed annuity payments received from the authority, over
the concession period. Since this annuity payment is a cost to the authority, therefore, the contract is awarded to
the lowest bidder. Toll charged under these contracts are, generally, regulated by a policy or a public agency. For
e.g. NHAI toll policy regulates toll charged in road projects, while TAMP regulates port charges.
BOT toll-based: Under this model too, the concessionaire is responsible for construction and maintenance of the
project, after which the ownership of the project is transferred to the public authority. However, the toll collected is
66
retained by the concessionaire and not transferred to the authority. Therefore, the concessionaire bears the
revenue risk during the concession period. Like in BOT annuity-based projects, toll charged under these contracts
are generally regulated by a policy or a public agency. For e.g. NHAI toll policy regulates toll charged in road
projects, while TAMP regulates port charges.
Variations of BOT contracts:
Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT): Under a simple BOT contract, revision of the user fee is decided by the
government agency (client). Therefore, the operator does not have much incentive to further invest in the project,
after the construction is over. However, under the BOOT model, ownership of the project is transferred to the
developer, for the concession period. The transfer of ownership provides the developer, flexibility to revise user
fees when required and therefore, maintain viability of the project. This encourages the developer to invest more
capital in the project, if required, to enhance revenues.
This type of model is used in power projects where the developer is allowed to retain the ownership and operations
of the project for the concession period, after which the project is transferred to the government. The BOOT model
can also be implemented in port projects as the operator may need to expand capacity of the port, based on traffic
requirements; which in turn would improve its revenue from port fees.
Build-Transfer-Lease-Operate (BTLO): Under this model, once the project construction is over, developer is
granted the lease to operate the project, for a fixed lease payment to the authority. Lease payment terms are
specified in the BTLO contract at the initiation and are generally, in the form of annual payments. The developer
operates and manages the project during the lease period and earns returns via user fees, which may be shared
with the public authority, based on the terms of the contract. This approach is common in highway and airport
projects, where the structure is leased back to the developer, for a stipulated time period.
Build-operate-own (BOO): BOO contracts have also taken root in India to attract private sector investments,
towards development of projects in sectors such as water and waste water, transportation, engineering and power
transmission. BOO contracts are similar to BOT/BOOT contracts, except that the asset remains with the bidder for
an indefinite period, rather than being transferred back to the client at a pre-defined date.
67
EPC contracts
Owner
EPC contractors
Specialised Process
Engineering
Vendors
Contractors
Site services
Along with NHAI, state authorities and municipal bodies, developers are also outsourcing toll collection to private
players in order to recognise revenues upfront. Toll management companies recover its investments and make
profits from toll receipts. The typical bidding process adopted by NHAI and State Authorities has been highlighted
below:
Bidding Process of NHAI
1)
A two-stage process has been adopted by the authority for the selection of the bidder for the award of work. The
Technical Bid consists of the bid documents along with the company profile indicating its capability experience and
the Financial Bid contains the amount quoted by the bidder.
2)
68
Partnership Firm registered under the Limited Liability Partnership Act, 2008
Proprietary Firm; or
Individual
Qualification criteria
for Bidder
Technical Criteria
Financial Criteria
3)
Technical Criteria: NHAI does not specify any requirement of minimum experience in tolling business.
4)
A minimum net worth of 25 per cent of the Annual Potential Collection (APC) at the close of the preceding
financial year.
o
Note:
Positive net cash accruals during any two financial years out of the last three financial years.
Net Worth shall mean (Subscribed and Paid-up Equity + Reserves) Less (Revaluation reserves +
miscellaneous expenditure not written off + accrued liabilities not accounted for)
Net Cash Accruals shall mean Profit after Tax + Depreciation.
5)
Apart from the bidding documents and the tender processing fees (both non-refundable), a bidder is required to
deposit a demand draft (refundable) of a certain sum (generally 1 or 2 percentage of PC) towards bid security. Tender
processing fee typically ranges from Rs10,000-15,000 along with bid document fee, which is typically Rs 20,000.
6)
Performance Security: The successful bidder has to furnish a demand draft, amounting to an amount equal to one
months agreed remittance within seven or fifteen days from the date of issuance of Letter of Acceptance (LOA). Bank
guarantee of an amount equal to one months agreed remittance is also needed at the same time.
Example-In case of MSRDC, for a tender value of Rs 34.6 million, net worth requirement was Rs2.6 million in any one of the
previous 3 years and annual turnover requirement was Rs17.3 million in any one of the previous 3 years (unlike prescribed 25
per cent of annual potential collection by NHAI).
Also, state authorities specify a minimum tolling experience for the bidder, which in case of MSRDC is generally 1 year.
69
Construction of project facilities such as toll plaza, street lighting, medical aid post, traffic aid posts, bus
shelters, etc.
This model provides consistent revenues to NHAI on the one hand and Just-in-Time (JIT) maintenance of the
project on the other hand. It includes performance based maintenance, periodic maintenance, routine maintenance
(minor repairs, cleaning of carriageways, shoulders, cross drainage structures etc.), road property management
and incident management. In this type of arrangement, toll collection rights are given to private operator.
Road development agencies are looking forward to generating revenues by way of awarding OMT contracts. Such
revenue is planned to be used for the upgrade of other roads, and/or for maintenance of roads with low volume
traffic. OMT projects provide opportunity for firms from the private sector who are not willing to take up construction
risk and cannot bring in large investments, but can take traffic risk.
From a developer perspective, OMT projects offer an opportunity to synergise existing projects by taking up OMT
contracts on the same corridor. From an investor perspective, such projects are equivalent to design, build,
finance, operate and transfer (DBFOT) toll-based concessions in terms of traffic risk but without construction risk.
Investments in such projects would carry benefits similar to investments in DBFOT (toll) projects during the
operations period. However, OMT projects have financial liabilities, principally towards Road Development
Agencies, unlike capital-intensive DBFOT (toll) projects, where financial liabilities of the project are towards Road
Development Agencies as well as towards lenders. On the other hand, the ticket size of OMT projects is smaller, so
a pool of such projects is required to attract larger investors. The creation of such a pool of projects has other
advantages such as the traffic risk is hedged. The short concession period in OMT projects (5 to 10 years), is
another factor that might attract private equity funds to such schemes.
70
The typical bidding process for an OMT project has been highlighted below:
1)
Qualification stage -:
o
NHAI calls for qualification of applicants, to ease the process at the bid stage, through Request for
Qualification (RFQ), for a prefixed number of OMT projects and length.
The qualification stage is aimed at evaluating the technical and financial capability of the applicants and
deciding their eligibility for various categories of estimated project cost of OMT projects. Estimated project
cost is specified by NHAI for all OMT projects and includes all costs expected to be incurred during the project
such as cost of major / minor maintenance works, construction of toll plazas, manpower cost, incident
management costs etc.
At the time of applying for qualification, the applicant is expected to indicate the estimated project cost for
which he wishes to be qualified, which should be more than Rs 200 million.
At the end of the qualification stage, NHAI gives out a list of qualified applicants along with specific estimated
project cost for which they are eligible for participation in the bidding stage. The qualification is typically valid
for 12 months.
To be eligible for qualification and short listing, an applicant is expected to fulfil certain minimum technical and
financial criteria:
Technical Capacity The applicant should have an experience of 5 financial years, prior to date of
application, of paying or receiving payments for construction or paying for development or collection
and appropriation of revenues of PPP projects in the highways* or core sectors* (with capital cost of
more than Rs 50 million).
Financial Capacity In the financial year preceding immediately, the applicant is required to have a
minimum net worth of:
For an estimated project cost of less than Rs 20 billion - 25 per cent of the estimated project
cost.
For an estimated project cost between Rs 20 and 30 billion Rs 5 billion plus 50 per cent of
the amount by which the estimated project cost value exceeds Rs 20 billion.
For an estimated project cost value of more than Rs 30 billion Rs 10 billion plus 100 per
cent of the amount by which the estimated project cost value exceeds Rs 30 billion.
In case of a consortium, combined technical and financial capacity of the members is evaluated.
71
Concessionaire is required to engage an experienced O&M contractor or hire qualified and trained personnel
for undertaking operation and maintenance activities.
No separate applications are called for qualification of OMT projects, which are part of RFQ.
A pre-application conference is also convened by NHAI, where applicants can seek clarifications as well as
make suggestions for consideration by the authority.
* - As per the RFQ recently published by NHAI authorities, highways sector includes highways, expressways, bridges, tunnels
and airfields; and the core sector includes power, telecom, ports, airports, railways, metro rail, industrial parks/estates, logistic
parks, pipelines, irrigation, water supply, sewerage and real estate development.
2)
Bidding stage -:
o
Unlike the qualification stage, where qualification is evaluated for multiple OMT projects in one process - RFQ,
bidding is carried out separately for each OMT project.
A Request for proposal (RFP) is floated for every OMT project, post which the bidders (applicants qualified at
the qualification stage) will be asked to submit their financial bid for the projects after undertaking detailed
analysis of the projects value.
Site detail report as well as concession agreements are also given out during this stage for perusal by the
qualified bidders.
The project is awarded to the bidder which quotes the maximum first year concession fee to be paid to NHAI
or lowest O&M support required (in case toll revenues from the project is lower than operation expenditures).
Till date, all awarded projects have resulted in significant concession fee being paid by concessionaire to
NHAI.
KRDC (Karnataka Road Development Corporation), on the other hand, follows a single stage bidding process
where qualification and evaluation of financial bids are undertaken as a single process.
72
Awarding of contracts
As per the recommendations of B.K Chaturvedi committee report, future road projects would be awarded on BOT toll, BOT- annuity and cash contracts concurrently, and not subsequently.
The provisions provide for an increase in the concession period by 1.5 per cent (subject to a maximum of 20 per
cent) for every 1 per cent of shortfall in traffic. The provision that provides for reduction in concession period with
increase in traffic has been removed in the interest of road players and bankers.
73
As per the recommendations of B.K Chaturvedi committee report, if the average daily traffic in any accounting year
exceeds the designed capacity of the project highway, a detailed project report (DPR) would be prepared for
augmenting capacity of the stretch, yielding an assured post tax return on equity (Equity IRR) of 16 per cent to
concessionaire. Also a maximum extension in concession period to the extent of five years would be allowed to the
concessionaire. The authority may then issue a notice to the concessionaire to undertake capacity augmentation
within 6 months of the notice. If the concessionaire refuses to augment capacity, the authority may thereafter issue
a termination notice.
Construction period
The time required for construction (typically 24-30 months) is included in the concession period. A concessionaire
starts earning revenues from COD, and this gives the concessionaire an incentive for early completion of
construction.
Financial closure
A time limit of 180 days is set for achieving financial closure by the concessionaire. In the event of failure, the bid
security is forfeited.
The NHAI has introduced an additional condition for bidding road projects. For a project of project cost less than Rs
30 billion, developers would be barred from bidding if financial closure on their other projects is pending in three or
more NHAI BOT projects as on bidding date. For a project cost equal to or more than Rs 30 billion, bidder will not
be eligible if financial closure is pending in two projects. However, if a bidder convinces NHAI about surety of
arrangement of funds for the project, it can bid for more projects.
Conflict of interest
As per the recommendations of B.K Chaturvedi committee report, common shareholding or other ownership
interest in companies has been increased from 5 per cent to 25 per cent of the paid-up and subscribed share
capital.
Obligations of NHAI
As per the recommendations of B.K Chaturvedi committee report, the obligations of NHAI are as follows: (i) to
acquire and hand over possession of 80 per cent of land required for the project till the letter of award (LOA) and
balance 20 per cent to be handed over within 90 days of project award (ii) obtain all environmental clearances for
the project before financial closure is achieved (iii) NHAI will ensure that no competing road is constructed where
NHDP is being implemented. NHAI will have to compensate the concessionaire if this is breached.
Exit policy
In the policy revision on 21 June 2013, the government has allowed existing concessionaire(s) in on-going and completed
National Highway projects awarded under the PPP model to divest their equity stake in the project at any time after securing the
bid.
74
Substitution
MCA provides for the concession to be transferred to another company in the event of failure of the concessionaire
to operate the project successfully.
Technical capacity
As per the recommendations of B.K Chaturvedi committee report, the technical capacity of a developer should be
equivalent to the project cost of a particular road project.
Financial capacity
Currently, the bidder/consortium is required to have a net worth equivalent to at least 25 per cent of the project
cost. As per the latest amendment, for projects up to Rs 20 billion, the consortium will need to have net worth of 25
per cent of the capital cost of the project; for projects between Rs 20 billion and Rs 30 billion, net worth requirement
will be of 50 per cent of capital cost of the project plus Rs 5 billion. The company implementing projects beyond Rs
30 billion will need to have net worth equivalent to the project cost plus Rs 10 billion.
Details of base rate per km for projects involving conversion from 2 lanes to 4 or more lanes.
Schedule of fee for the bridges/ bypass/ tunnel based on the cost criteria.
Rates of fee for two lane National Highways with additional investment of Rs 10 million per km or more on
improvement.
Mode of collection.
Fee structure
Toll charges are based on the rates notified by the government. Fee for use of a section of National Highways of
4(four) or more lanes for the base year 2007-2008 shall be the product of the length of such section multiplied by
the rates specified hereunder:
75
Rs/km
0.65
1.05
Bus or truck
2.20
2.40
3.45
4.20
st
To be revised every year effective from 1 April as per the following rules:
o
Fee for a permanent bridge, bypass or tunnel costing Rs 0.1 billion or more will be determined separately
Two-lane roads with cost per km more than Rs 0.25 billion will be tollable.
In 2013 and 2014, some amendments were made to the National Highway Fee (determination of rates and
collection) Rules 2008
In case of a section of a four-lane highway which has been taken up for upgradation to six-laning, the
increase in rate of fee shall be limited to seventy-five per cent of the fee as specified as revised as per
applicable rules calculated on and from the date of commencement of the work relating to upgradation, till
the date of completion of the project according to the agreement entered into with the concessionaire
without any annual revision. No user fee shall be levied for the delayed period between the date of
completion as per the agreement entered into with the concessionaire and the date of actual completion of
the project. For the purposes of this rule, any provisional completion of the project shall not be treated as
completion of the project.
The rate of fee for use of an expressway shall be 1.25 times the rate specified in applicable rule.
In case of private investment projects, the rate of fee shall be as specified under applicable rule or such
lower rates as concessionaire may determine by giving public notice to the users, specifying in all or any
category of vehicles.
Separate toll rates may be prescribed for standalone bridges, ROBs, RUBs, bypasses, tunnels not forming part of corridor as also ring roads,
expressways and port connectivity or such special projects. The threshold level for levy of user fee of standalone structures shall be Rs 0.1
billion.
For structures like bridges, ROBs, RUBs, bypasses, tunnels etc, forming part of corridor, the threshold level for levy of user fee shall be Rs 0.5
billion. The fee rates of such sections shall be determined by deducting the length of such structures and adding the fee rates of the structures
76
The rate of fee for use of standalone structure as well as structure forming part of a linear
highway/expressway, shall be calculated by converting the length of structure into an equivalent length of
highway/expressway by multiplying by a factor of ten. Provided that structure of 60 meters of length or less,
on a linear highway/expressway will be considered as a part of normal length of highway/expressway for
calculation of fee.
The rate of fee for use of a section of a national highway, having two-lanes with paved shoulders and
above but below four-lane on which substantial improvement has been made by widening carriageway by
three meters or more shall be sixty per cent of the rate of fee specified under applicable rule. Without
prejudice to the liability of the driver or owner or a person in charge of a mechanical vehicle under any law
for the time being in force, a mechanical vehicle which is loaded in excess of permissible load specified for
its category under applicable rule, shall not be permitted to use the National Highway or crossing the toll
plaza until the excess load has been removed from such mechanical vehicle. The driver or owner or a
person in charge of a mechanical vehicle shall be liable to pay fee, for entering the overloaded vehicle on
the national highway to the toll collecting agency, equal to ten times of the fee applicable to such category
of mechanical vehicles under applicable rule.
Under section 80 IA of the Income Tax Act, profits and gains derived by an undertaking are subject to a
100 per cent deduction for 10 consecutive assessment years
Deduction up to 40 per cent of the income from financing of the infrastructure projects is available provided
the amount is kept in a special reserve.
Subscription to equity shares or debentures issued by public company wholly and exclusively for the
purpose of developing, maintaining and operating an infrastructure facility is eligible for deduction equal to
20 per cent of the amount subscribed.
On certain identified high quality construction plants and equipment, import duty has been completely
exempted for public funded needs.
External commercial borrowings are permitted up to 35 per cent of the project cost.
G) Key snippets
In terms of institutional framework, The Planning Commission is the apex body for formulating policies,
programmes, development and resource planning for the roads sector.
Duties related to the development and maintenance of National Highways and rural roads are the
responsibility of the MoRTH and MoRD, respectively.
Implementing agencies for National Highways, state roads and rural roads are NHAI, state PWDs and road
development corporations and panchayats, respectively.
In order to encourage and facilitate private sector investment and participation in the roads sector, the Central
government has undertaken certain policy measures and provided certain fiscal incentives within the sector such
as:
77
100 per cent foreign direct equity investment (FDI) allowed in road sector projects.
Provision of capital subsidy of up to 40 per cent of the project cost to make projects commercially viable.
Recently allowing to divest stake in on-going and completed National Highway projects awarded under the
PPP model to divest their equity stake in the project at any time after securing the bid.
78
Allowing for loans for PPP projects to be considered as secured subject to certain conditions.
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Allocation provided
Taking cognizance of the dearth of budgetary outlays for maintenance of roads (highways) as well as the growing
traffic in the country, a new concept was introduced to tap the private sectors efficiencies in operation, tolling and
maintenance as the service life of road infrastructure depends primarily on timely maintenance. The new concept OMT (Operate, Maintain and Transfer) model was introduced by NHAI in 2009 for select existing and near
completion four-lane National Highways. Earlier, the tasks of user fee (toll) collection and maintenance of highways
were entrusted with tolling agents / operators and sub-contractors, respectively. These tasks were integrated under
the OMT concessions; an OMT contract hence is a fusion of two contracts a tolling contract and a contract
for O&M.
79
Toll collection.
Concession period
The concession period is identified on project specific basis but typically, for NHAI projects, it is 9 years (although a
few 6-year contracts have also been awarded), after which the concessionaire has to transfer the project stretch
back to the government authority. The concession period is linked to periodic maintenance cycle of the project
highway and is almost equal to the life of renewal work i.e. concession period is chosen such that an OMT contract
ends before the necessity to upgrade the project stretch from 2 lane to 4 lane or 4 lane to 6 lane etc. arises.
80
Where:
Base Rate: Rates specified in 2007-08 are increased without compounding, by 3 per cent, each year with
effect from April 1, 2008 and the increased rate is the base rate for the subsequent years.
st
WPI A means the Wholesale Price Index of the week ending on or subsequent to 1 January immediately
preceding the date of revision.
th
WPI B means the Wholesale Price Index of the week ending on 6 January 2007 i.e. 208.7.
Revenue stream for government authority
The selection of the concessionaire is based on competitive bidding where selected bidders specify the concession
fee offered by them to the authority or in some cases O&M support required - in case their operational expenditures
exceed the toll revenues expected. Typically, we have seen that all OMT projects that have been awarded till date
have resulted in the government authority receiving concession fee.
Allocation
Details
Traffic Risk
Concessionaire
Concessionaire
Financing Risk
Concessionaire
Political Risk
Government Authority
All direct and indirect risk are allocated to the government authority
Source:CRISIL Research
OMT projects have financial liabilities, principally towards road development agencies, unlike capital-intensive
DBFOT (toll) projects, where financial liabilities of the project are towards both road development agencies and
lenders.
81
Supervision by authority
The government authority undertakes the supervision and monitoring of the O&M work by appointing an
independent engineer (a qualified firm), which is selected through a separate bidding process.
2) Under an OMT contract, a concessionaire is awarded O&M and tolling of a project stretch, for a typical
duration of 9 years. This significantly reduces the administrative efforts of the awarding agency, as earlier the
authorities (NHAI, state agencies etc.) used to hire two separate agencies every year, one for tolling and the
other for O&M of a project stretch. (standalone tolling or O&M contracts are typically for a smaller contract
period of around 1 year).
3) All OMT projects that have been awarded till date have resulted in the premium (concession fee) being shared
by the concessionaire with the awarding authority (NHAI / state authority). Revenue generated through
premium sharing can be used for development of other road corridors.
B) Key trends in OMT business model and list of key projects bid for
Prior to 2009, NHAI used to invite bids for tolling and O&M of National Highways separately. Contracts were
awarded, typically for a year, to two separate agencies, one for undertaking O&M activities and the other for
undertaking tolling, and hence required significant administrative efforts.
In 2009, primarily owing to a dearth of funds available for maintenance of highways and tapping the gains of PPP
model, NHAI introduced OMT concept for National Highways, which were constructed through public funding predominantly stretches developed in the Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) and North-SouthEast-West (NSEW) corridor
(under NHDP Phase I & II).
Between 2009-10 and 2013-14, NHAI has awarded a total of around 2,360 km of National Highways (around 14
projects) to be maintained on OMT basis.
Apart from NHAI, OMT models have also been adopted by a few large Indian states, where state road
development authorities have invited bids / awarded state highway stretches to be operated and maintained on
OMT basis. Key state authorities that have adopted OMT concept in India are Maharashtra State Road
82
Development Corporation (MSRDC), Madhya Pradesh State Road Development Corporation (MPRDC), Karnataka
Road Development Corporation (KRDC) and Bihar State Road Development Corporation (BSRDC).
In 2009-10, MSRDC invited bids for (and awarded) securitization of 5 entry points for Mumbai toll plazas
(Airoli, Mulund, Vashi, LBS Marg and Dahisar) and maintenance of 27 major flyovers on OMT basis.
Further, in 2010-11, MSRDC invited bids for (and awarded) OMT of 5 toll plazas in Baramati. In 2013-14,
MSRDC invited bids for (and awarded) O&M of Rajiv Gandhi Sea link (RGSL) on OMT basis.
In 2012-13, MPRDC invited bids for around 940 km of state highways (under 11 projects) to be maintained
on OMT basis while in 2013-14 bids for around 550 km of state highways (under 11 projects) were invited
of which 238 km were repeats from the previously invited bids.
In 2013-14, KRDC and BSRDC have invited bids for around 820 km (fewer than 8 projects) and around
480 km (under 4 projects) of state highways stretches, respectively.
State Highways
National Highways
NHAI
MPRDC
(MP)
~2360 kms
(14 projects)
~940 kms
(11 projects)
KRDC
(Karnataka)
~820 km
(8 projects)
BSRDC
(Bihar)
~480 km
(4 projects)
MSRDC
(Maharashtra)
83
Adoption of OMT Model by NHAI: Around 2,360 km of National Highway length is currently tolled,
operated and maintained (as of 2013-14)
Summary of OMT projects bid out by NHAI till 2013-14
Length of projects (in km )
Authority Nam e
2009-10 &
2010-11
2011-12 to
2013-14
1,400
Total
No of projects
2009-10 & 2011-12 to
2010-11
2013-14
2,360
Total
14
3.7
7.4
Total
11.1
In the first phase, year 2009-10 and 2010-11, NHAI bid out a total length of around 960 km (under 6 projects) of
National Highways to be maintained on OMT basis. Approximately 50 per cent of the length was bid out for a
concession period of 6 years, whereas the other 50 per cent was bid out for a concession period of 9 years. Under
phase 1, the total concession fee that was received by NHAI was around Rs 2.6 billion whereas the estimated
project cost of the OMT projects was around Rs 3.7 billion.
km
1,400
10.0
8.0
7.4
1,500
7.7
960
1,000
6.0
4.0
3.7
500
2.6
2.0
84
2011-12 to 2013-14
Concession fee received by NHAI (in Rs bn.) - LHS
List of OMT projects awarded by NHAI during Phase 1 (2009-10 and 2010-11)
Nam e of OMT Package
State
Gujarat
Concession Length
Period
(Km )
Estim ated
Project Cost
(Rs. Million)
9 years
260
1,840
Gujarat
9 years
116
770
Rajasthan
6 years
161
230
O&M of Sw aroop-Pindw ada Section of NH-14 and Pindw ada-Udaipur Section of NH-76
Rajasthan
under OMT basis
6 years
120
160
Rajasthan
9 years
104
540
Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh and Uttar
Pradesh
6 years
196
190
Total
960
3,700
In phase 2, during the last three years i.e., 2011-12 to 2013-14, total length bid under OMT model by NHAI, jumped
from 960 km (under phase 1) to around 1,400km. A total of 8 projects were awarded on OMT basis during phase 2,
compared to 6 projects awarded under Phase 1.
Further, under this phase, the total concession fee received by NHAI increased more than three times from around
Rs 2.6 billion (under phase 1) to around Rs 7.7 billion, whereas the estimated project cost increased from around
Rs 3.7 billion (under phase 1) to around Rs 7.4 billion. Concession period of all OMT contracts bid out during the
last two years is 9 years. A sharper rise in concession fee and project cost between the two phases when
compared to the increase in length on OMT can be attributed to factors like inflation, increase in average years on
which the stretches were given out on OMT (from 6-9 years in Phase 1 to 9 years in Phase 2), better traffic on
phase 2 stretches etc.
Estim ated
project cost
(Rs m illion)
State
Tamil Nadu
9 years
243
1,394
Tamil Nadu
9 years
33
478
Tamil Nadu
9 years
125
750
O&M of Kanpur-Lucknow section of NH-25 and Lucknow Bypass stretch of NH-56A &
Uttar Pradesh
56B and Lucknow -Ayodhya Section stretch of NH-28 on OMT Basis
9 years
217
920
Uttar Pradesh
9 years
118
710
West Bengal
9 years
52
220
AP & Karnataka
9 years
251
1,530
9 years
325
1,390
Total
1,364
7,392
Note: Total length for OMT projects has been assumed to be around 1400 kms and estimated project cost at around Rs 7.4 billion
Source: NHAI, CRISIL Research
85
Further, NHAI has invited request for quotation (RFQ) for 14 National Highway stretches, amounting to around
1,831 km of length. List of these project stretches has been provided below:
List of OMT projects of NHAI for which RFQ has been invited in 2013-14
Name of OMT Package
State
Andhra Pradesh
Expected
Length
concession
(Km)
Period
9 years
206
Assam
9 years
205
Bihar
9 years
280
Karnataka
9 years
37
9 years
143
9 years
57
9 years
95
9 years
272
9 years
17
Uttar Pradesh
9 years
85
Uttar Pradesh
Punjab, Himachal
Pradesh and
Jammu & Kashmir
Odisha
9 years
133
9 years
222
9 years
Total Length
80
1831
1. Estimated project cost for these projects have not been provided in the latest RFQ document
2. Except for O&M of Guwahati Daboka section, O&M Borkhedi Wadenar section and O&M of Chandikhole Paradip section which are new
invites, all others have been reinvited for bidding in 2013-14 (earlier bids for these projects were invited in 2011-12 and 2012-13)
Source: CRISIL Research
Adoption of OMT Model by state highways: Around 2800 km of state highway length is currently
tolled, operated and maintained (as of 2013-14)
As of 2013-14, four states in India, viz, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Karnataka, have adopted the
OMT model.
Summary of OMT projects for MSRDC for which bids were invited
Authority Nam e
Project Nam e
Project Description
MSRDC
- Securitization of 5 entry points for Mumbai toll plazas and maintenance of around 27
major flyovers on OMT basis, for a concession period of 16 years.
- Estimated upfront payment to MSRDC for this project w as Rs. 21 billion
MSRDC
- Operation & Maintenance of Rajiv Gandhi Sea Link (~ 5 km) and toll plaza & collection of
toll for a concession period of 3 years (156 w eeks).
- Estimated upfront payment to MSRDC for this project w as Rs. 2.65 billion
MSRDC
86
Summary of OMT projects (except MSRDC) for key State authorities for which bids were invited
Authority Nam e
2013-14
No of projects
Total
2012-13
2013-14
11
Total
2012-13
2013-14
Total
MPRDC
940
550
1,490
11
22
3.8
n.a
3.8
KRDC
820
820
4.9
4.9
BSRDC
480
480
4.1
4.1
Total
940
1,850
2,790
23
34
11
3.8
9.0
12.8
*Estimated costs for projects invited for bids in February 2014 is not available.
MPRDC: Madhya Pradesh State Road Development Corporation
KRDC: Karnataka Road Development Corporation Limited
BSRDC: Bihar State Road & Bridges Development Corporation
Note: No bids were invited by MPRDC, KRDC, and BSRDC prior to 2012-13
Source: CRISIL Research
In 2009-10, Maharashtra was the first state to invite bids for securitization of 5 entry points for Mumbai toll
plazas (Airoli, Mulund, Vashi, LBS Marg and Dahisar) and maintenance of 27 major flyovers on OMT basis.
The project was awarded in November 2010 for a concession period of 16 years. The lumpsum upfront
payment to MSRDC for this project was around Rs 21 billion. Further, in 2010-11, MSRDC awarded OMT
of 5 toll plazas in Baramati (around 22 km) for a concession period of 19 years. Also, in 2013-14, MSRDC
had invited bids (and awarded) for OMT of Rajiv Gandhi Sea link (RGSL) for a concession period of 156
weeks i.e. around 3 years. The estimated cost of this project is around Rs 2.65 billion.
In 2012-13, MPRDC invited bids for around 940 km (fewer than 11 OMT projects) of state highways to be
operated and maintained on OMT basis for a concession period of 9 years. The estimated cost of these
projects, as mentioned in the Request for Proposal (RFP) documents was around Rs 3.8 billion. In 201314, the state had successfully awarded around 200 km (of the total 940 km) of state highways on OMT
basis. In 2013-14, MPRDC invited prequalification bids for around 550 km (fewer than 11 OMT projects) of
state highways to be operated and maintained on OMT basis for a concession period of 9 years. Of the
550 km invited for bidding in 2013-14, 238 km were repeats from the previously invited bids.
Nam e of Project
Length (Km )
62
180
79
90
57
330
197
600
87
State
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
36
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
75
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
127
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
20
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
51
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
43
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
51
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
51
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
33
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
39
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
28
Nam e of Project
Length
(Km )
553
Also, in 2013-14, KRDC and BSRDC invited bids for around 820 km (under 8 projects) and around 480 km
(under 4 projects) respectively of state highways stretches, respectively, to be awarded on OMT basis. The
total estimated project cost for bids invited by KRDC is around Rs 4.9 billion, whereas the same for BSRDC
OMT projects is around Rs 4.1 billion. The concession period for KRDC projects is 9.5 years, whereas the
same for BSRDC projects is 9 years.
88
List of OMT projects of state authorities for which bids have been invited till 2013-14
Length
(Km )
Estim ated
project cost
(Rs m illion)
43
280
Madhya Pradesh
78
500
Madhya Pradesh
216
830
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
59
420
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
85
390
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
62
190
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
79
100
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
57
330
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
108
330
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
77
320
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
State
Authority
State
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
MPRDC
MPRDC
Nam e of Project
73
140
938
3,830
KRDC
Karnataka
175
1170
KRDC
Karnataka
142
1160
KRDC
Karnataka
77
640
KRDC
Karnataka
55
490
KRDC
Karnataka
127
450
KRDC
Karnataka
76
430
KRDC
Karnataka
75
380
KRDC
Karnataka
93
190
820
4,910
BSRDC
Bihar
143
860
BSRDC
Bihar
187
1920
BSRDC
Bihar
48
310
BSRDC
Bihar
103
1040
480
4,130
MSRDC
Maharashtra
~25
- *
MSRDC
Maharashtra
~5
- **
MSRDC
Maharashtra
~30
* - The lumpsum upfront payment to MSRDC for the project was Rs 21 billion (concession period of 16 years)
** - The upfront payment to MSRDC for the project was Rs 2.6 billion (concession period of 3 years)
MSRDC: Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation
MPRDC: Madhya Pradesh State Road Development Corporation
KRDC: Karnataka Road Development Corporation Limited
BSRDC: Bihar State Road & Bridges Development Corporation
Source: CRISIL Research
89
Rs billion
30-32 projects
30.0
5,000
4,700
25.0
14 projects
4,500
4,000
3,500
20.0
3,000
15.0
2,500
2,360
25.0
10.0
5.0
2,000
1,500
1,000
11.0
500
-
2013-14
2017-18
Outlook on state highway projects: State highway OMT stretch to almost double over
next four years
In 2012-13, only Madhya Pradesh had invited bids for a total length of around 1,175 km (under 14 projects) of state
highways to be operated and maintained on OMT basis. Of these around 240 km were recalled. In 2013-14
Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Bihar together had invited bids for a total length of around 1,850 km (under ~23
projects). Thus by end of 2013-14, bids for total 2,790 km (under 34 projects) of state highways to be operated and
90
maintained on OMT basis had been invited. The estimated cost for these OMT projects is around Rs 12.8 billion
(excluding the cost of 11 new projects invited by Madhya Pradesh)
We expect the total stretch under OMT model (for which bids will be invited) to increase 1.9 times from around
2,790 km in 2013-14 to around 5,300 km by 2017-18. The total number of OMT projects (on bids invited basis) are
expected to increase from 34 projects in 2013-14 to 55-60 projects in 2017-18 (assuming an average length of 90100 km for state authority OMT project).
In terms of the market opportunity in value terms, we expect the OMT market to increase around 2.6 times from Rs
12.8 billion in 2013-14 (excluding the cost of 11 projects invited for bidding by Madhya Pradesh) to Rs 32.9 billion
by 2017-18. Market opportunity in value terms indicates the estimated project cost.
For a detailed outlook on OMT market from state authorities please refer Chapter 9.
Rs billion
55-60 projects
35.0
5,300
30.0
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
25.0
4,000
34 projects
20.0
2,790
15.0
3,500
32.9
3,000
2,500
2,000
10.0
1,500
12.8
5.0
1,000
500
2013-14
Estimated project cost (in Rs bn.)
2017-18
Length on OMT basis (in km)
1. Length & market potential of OMT for 2012-13 and 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids were / are expected to
be invited by the key state authorities.
2. Estimated project cost for 2013-14 does not reflect the cost for 11 projects invit ed for bidding by Madhya Pradesh in 201314. 3. For calculating the estimated project cost (EPC) for a state authority project, past average EPC per km for that authority
has been used.
4. Market opportunity in value terms has been presented in terms of es timated project cost as provided by the authority at the
bidding stage. W e have assumed a 5 per cent increase in estimated project cost per year .
5. OMT oppurtunity for 2017-18 includes oppurtunity from states of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
Overall outlook: Overall OMT stretch to almost double over next four years
CRISIL Research expects the total stretch under OMT model for NHAI and key states (combined) to almost double
from around 5,150 km in 2013-14 to around 10,000 km by 2017-18. The total number of OMT projects is expected
to increase from 48 in 2013-14 to 90-95 in 2017-18. The lengths under OMT for both NHAI and State are expected
to almost double.
91
No of projects
12,000
175
155
10,000
135
8,000
5,300
90-95 projects
6,000
115
95
75
4,000
2,790
48 projects
55
4,700
2,000
35
15
2,360
-
-5
2013-14
NHAI Projects
2017-18
1. Length of OMT for key states for 2013 -14 and 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids were / are expected to be
invited by the key state authorities.
2. NHAI details are based on awarded data
3. Market opportunity in value terms has been presented in terms of estimated project cost as provided by the authority at the
bidding stage. W e have assumed a 5 per cent increase in estimated project cost per year .
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
In terms of
market opportunity in value terms, we expect the OMT market from NHAI and state highways
(combined) to increase around 2.4 times from the current Rs 23.8 billion to Rs 57.9 billion by 2017-18. Market
opportunity in value terms indicates the estimated project cost.
32.9
40.0
Rs. 23.8 bn
30.0
20.0
12.8
25.0
10.0
11.0
0.0
2013-14
2017-18
NHAI Projects
1. Market potential of OMT for key states for 2013 -14 and 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids were / are expected
to be invited by the key state authorities.
2. NHAI details are based on awarded data
3. Market opportunity in value terms has been presented in terms of estimated project cost as provided by the authority at the
bidding stage. W e have assumed a 5 per cent increase in estimated project cost per year .
4. Estimated project cost for 2013-14 does not reflect the cost for 11 projects invited for bidding by Madhya Pradesh in 2013 14.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
92
User fee collection for projects built under EPC/ BOT (Annuity)
The modes recognised by NHAI for user fee collection on Public Funded Projects and BOT Annuity Projects are:
NHAI primarily adopts the user fee collection through private contractor by calling competitive bids. Under this
mode, the authority invites bids for the toll plaza and the winner is selected on the basis of best revenue sharing
deal. However, failure because of any reason in the above may result in engaging a Directorate General of
Resettlement (DGR) Sponsored Agency. DGR is the nodal agency for finding employment for ex-servicemen.
Under this contract, ex-servicemen get a fixed percentage of the toll collected as their commission. The second
option of collection through DGR is utilised only till the road section is transferred to OMT concessionaire.
93
To upgrade/provide necessary facilities required to facilitate toll collection (such as making necessary
arrangements for power to ensure the proper functioning of the toll plaza including office equipment
installation, maintenance and running all electric equipment, generator and bearing all the expenses during
the entire period of the contract).
Concession period
Toll collection contract is typically of a short duration, which in case of NHAI, ranges from 3-12 months for roads
constructed under EPC model and 24 months for roads constructed under BOT Annuity model.
In case of state authorities, concession period typically extends from 12-36 months.
Example
Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC) typically awards tolling projects for a period
of 36 months.
Rajasthan State Road Development and Construction Corporation (RSRDC) generally invites bids for a
period of 12-24 months.
Haryana State Road & Bridges Development Corporation (HSRDC) and Odisha Bridge & Construction
Corporation Limited (OBCC) have awarded tolling projects for a period of 12 months.
Road Infrastructure Development Company of Rajasthan (RIDCOR) typically awards tolling projects for a
period of 12 months.
Karnataka Road Development Corporation Limited (KRDC) adopted the model recently and the duration of
Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) awarded toll collection rights for a period of 3 years in 2011-12.
Hooghly River Bridge Commissioners has awarded toll collection rights of Vidyasagar Setu for a period of 5
years.
94
Note: It includes the projects for which either NIT or RFP is issued by NHAI. It includes both new and rebid projects.
For example, for National Highway projects awarded by NHAI, as per the National Highways Fee (Determination of
Rates and Collection) Rules,-2008, it is calculated as:
Applicable fee rate = Base Rate + 0.4*Base Rate*{WPI A- WPI B}/WPI B
95
Where,
Base Rate: Rates specified in 2007-08 are increased without compounding, by 3 per cent, each year with
effect from April 1, 2008 and increased rates are base rates for the subsequent years.
WPI A means the Wholesale Price Index of the week ending on or subsequent to January 1, immediately
preceeding the date of revision.
WPI B means the Wholesale Price Index of the week ending on January 6, 2007 i.e. 208.7.
No concessionaire can charge fee in excess of that determined by the authority for whatever reason.
Revenue stream for government authority
The toll collection agency with the highest bid is awarded the toll collection project, provided the highest bid is not
less than the estimated annual potential collection (APC) of the toll plaza. However, in certain cases this particular
clause is eliminated in order to attract more participants on low traffic areas. The winning bid amount is to be paid
to the authority by the private player either upfront or on weekly/monthly or yearly basis.
96
Revenues collected upfront by the authorities are employed for better execution of other ongoing projects.
Also, reported pilferage of around 20 per cent in the earlier model is avoided, thus increasing the revenues
for the authorities.
Specialist toll management companies can leverage on their expertise and systems to maximise the
revenues by ensuring better traffic management and reducing waiting time.
Not a highly capital intensive business model as it involves minimal to negligible work for the stretch (in
comparison to OMT, BOT).
Type of
roads
National Highways
State Highways
Municipal Roads
Contracting
authority
NHAI (98-102 *)
Municipal Corporations
MSRDC (13)
MCD (1)
HSRDC (15)
HRBC (1)
Others
KRDC (1)
OBCC (10)
Others
97
Adoption of toll model by NHAI: Nearly 6,800 km of National Highway length is currently tolled
under this model
Summary of toll collection projects bid out by NHAI from 2010-11 till 2013-14
Authority Name
National Highw ays
Authority Of India
(NHAI)
Number of Projects
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
~5000
~4500
~4800
~5250
~90-92
~75-80
~84-88
~98-102
~18.5
~21
~27
~27
In 2009-10, NHAI invited bids for 24 toll plazas, which increased to 90-92 bids in 2010-11. However, the same (bids
invited) moderated to 75-80 bids in 2011-12 and 84-88 bids in 2012-13. The number of bids invited increased to
98-102 in 2013-14. Bids were invited for around 4,800 km in 2012-13, which increased to around 5,250 km in 201314. As of 2013-14, National Highways of length 6,800 km are under tolling model.
Number of Projects
5500
~5250 km
~5000 km
5000
~4800 km
90-92
110
28
98-102
100
~4500 km
~27
~27
2012-13
2013-14
26
24
4500
90
84-88
4000
30
75-80
80
3500
~21
22
20
~18.5
18
70
3000
2500
60
2000
50
16
14
12
2010-11
2011-12
Length
2012-13
Number of projects
2013-14
10
2010-11
2011-12
Annual potential collection for the bids invited by NHAI amounted to Rs 18.5 billion in 2010-11, Rs 21 billion in
2011-12 and further increased to Rs 27 billion in 2012-13. Annual potential collection remained at around Rs 27
billion in 2013-14.
98
Adoption of toll model by state authorities: Nearly 5,350 km of state highway length is currently
tolled under this model
States like Maharashtra, Haryana, Rajasthan, Odisha, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have adopted the tolling
model.
Summary of toll collection projects for which bids were invited by key state authorities from 2011-12 till 2013-14
Authority
Nam e
2012-13
2013-14
MSRDC
250
650
300
HSRDC
500
750
RSRDC
280
560
500
RIDCOR
2012-13
2013-14
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
12
10
15-17
~0.15
~0.6
~3.2
~0.37
~0.55
10
11
~0.35
~0.69
~1.09
850
~1.7
OBCC
330
300
11
10
~0.28
~0.25
KRDC
50
~0.1
TNRDC
n.a
GSRICL
Total
n.a
1360
3110
850
31
53-55
17
~1.2
~3.8
~4.4
Note: States authorities like MSRDC and RSRDC typically provide potential collection for a p eriod of 2-3 years; the same has
been estimated at annual level and represented in aforementioned table. Length of a toll project is estimated to be 50 km for
which information is not available in public domain (in order to arrive at overall state level in formation). Projects mentioned in
the aforementioned table are on standalone bids basis.
Source: Industry, CRISIL Research
MSRDC (Maharashtra) has bid out 17 projects on tolling in the last 2 years. As of March 2014, MSRDC
has invited bids for 5 toll collection projects.
HSRDC invited bids for 10 tolling projects in 2011-12, which increased to 15-17 in 2012-13.
Rajasthan (RSRDC & RIDCOR) bid invitation number also increased from 5 in 2011-12 to 16 in 2012-13. In
2013-14 RSRDC invited bids for three toll collection projects.
OBCC invited bids for 11 toll collection projects in 2011-12 and for 10 in 2012-13.
In 2013-14, Gujarat (GSRICL) and Tamil Nadu (TNRDC) invited bids for two toll collection projects each.
While Karnataka (KRDC) invited its first toll collection project in 2013-14.
99
C) List of key toll projects by NHAI, state highways/ road development corporations
NHAI projects (2010-11)
Andhra Pradesh
12
30
Annual
Potential
Collection
(in m illions)
160
Andhra Pradesh
12
41
100
Andhra Pradesh
12
84
360
Andhra Pradesh
12
66
170
Andhra Pradesh
12
108
380
Andhra Pradesh
12
89
420
Andhra Pradesh
12
61
260
Andhra Pradesh
12
10
50
Andhra Pradesh
12
72
390
Andhra Pradesh
12
39
160
Andhra Pradesh
12
76
480
Andhra Pradesh
12
46
140
Andhra Pradesh
12
63
210
Andhra Pradesh
12
39
160
Andhra Pradesh
12
48
190
Andhra Pradesh
12
67
240
Andhra Pradesh
12
103
320
Total
Andhra Pradesh
1042
4190
Gausaghat Bridge
Bihar
NA
3.2
Total
Bihar
NA
Gujarat
12
52
150
Gujarat
12
55
90
Gujarat
12
45
180
Gujarat
12
71
60
Gujarat
12
98
420
Gujarat
12
Total
Gujarat
Karnataka
Project
State
Contract
Period Length (km )
(m onths)
12
93
690
413
1590
12
53
210
Karnataka
12
51
160
Karnataka
12
71
70
Karnataka
12
64
210
Karnataka
12
55
180
Karnataka
12
57
430
Karnataka
12
60
470
Total
Karnataka
412
1730
Madhya Pradesh
12
53
10
Madhya Pradesh
12
60
50
Madhya Pradesh
12
42
90
Madhya Pradesh
12
Total
Madhya Pradesh
100
43
70
198
220
Amravati Bypass
Maharashtra
12
17
Maharashtra
12
NA
Maharashtra
12
NA
10
Maharashtra
12
30
470
Total
Maharashtra
47
520
Odisha
12
77
180
Odisha
12
70
290
Odisha
12
65
200
Odisha
12
69
120
Total
Odisha
281
790
Punjab
36
50
Total
Punjab
36
50
Rajasthan
12
54
60
Rajasthan
12
53
60
Rajasthan
12
54
60
Rajasthan
12
48
30
Rajasthan
12
61
40
Rajasthan
12
67
10
Rajasthan
12
43
60
Rajasthan
12
57
10
Rajasthan
12
83
450
Rajasthan
12
101
540
Rajasthan
12
40
180
Rajasthan
12
99
180
Rajasthan
12
70
320
Rajasthan
12
54
90
Rob Kishangarh
Rajasthan
12
50
Rajasthan
12
46
200
Total
Rajasthan
931
2340
Tamil Nadu
12
55
420
Tamil Nadu
12
46
320
Tamil Nadu
12
47
250
Tamil Nadu
12
47
270
Tamil Nadu
12
61
140
Tamil Nadu
12
64
200
Chennai Bypass
Tamil Nadu
12
19
190
Tamil Nadu
12
47
290
Total
Tam il Nadu
385
2080
Uttar Pradesh
12
56
220
Uttar Pradesh
12
18
100
Uttar Pradesh
12
57
320
Uttar Pradesh
12
32
130
Uttar Pradesh
12
89
230
Uttar Pradesh
12
77
110
12
40
101
Shikohabad- Etaw ah & Etaw ah Bypass (Semra Atikabad toll plaza) Uttar Pradesh
12
71
220
Uttar Pradesh
12
52
210
Uttar Pradesh
12
10
Uttar Pradesh
12
48
210
Uttar Pradesh
12
92
230
Uttar Pradesh
12
72
210
Rampura Tharivan-Kokhraj
Uttar Pradesh
12
58
160
Uttar Pradesh
12
32
100
Uttar Pradesh
12
72
240
Uttar Pradesh
12
NA
20
Naini Bridge
Uttar Pradesh
12
80
Total
Uttar Pradesh
832
2800
West Bengal
12
62
260
West Bengal
12
62
400
West Bengal
12
116
230
West Bengal
12
64
360
West Bengal
12
56
280
West Bengal
12
54
410
West Bengal
12
50
90
Total
West Bengal
463
2030
Project
State
Concession
Period
(m onths)
Length (km )
Annual
Potential
Collection
(in m illions)
Andhra Pradesh
12
103
280
Andhra Pradesh
12
84
330
Andhra Pradesh
12
39
170
Andhra Pradesh
12
79
350
Andhra Pradesh
12
88
220
Andhra Pradesh
12
48
270
Andhra Pradesh
12
41
130
Andhra Pradesh
12
45
150
Andhra Pradesh
12
48
240
Andhra Pradesh
12
30
110
Andhra Pradesh
12
46
210
Andhra Pradesh
12
76
470
Andhra Pradesh
12
108
620
Andhra Pradesh
12
55
170
Andhra Pradesh
12
30
110
Andhra Pradesh
12
66
210
Andhra Pradesh
12
10
60
996
4100
102
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Total
Assam
12
70
70
Bihar
12
80
140
Bihar
12
69
60
Bihar
12
100
NA
Total
Bihar
249
200
Gujarat
12
98
NA
Gujarat
12
52
200
Gujarat
12
45
190
Gujarat
12
31
130
Gujarat
12
71
120
Gujarat
12
105
120
Gujarat
12
31
310
Gujarat
12
53
450
Total
Gujarat
486
1520
117
220
117
220
12
80
750
Karnataka
12
71
250
Karnataka
12
Total
Karnataka
Kerala
Total
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
12
16
50
Maharashtra
12
30
NA
Maharashtra
12
30
80
Total
Maharashtra
76
130
Bhadrak Balasore
Odisha
12
63
200
Odisha
9+3(If Required)
77
200
Odisha
12
65
170
Total
Odisha
204
570
45
150
45
150
39
310
39
310
12
71
530
222
1530
17
190
17
190
12
57
200
Madhya Pradesh
12
43
140
Madhya Pradesh
12
42
150
142
490
12
Total
Punjab
Rajasthan
12
83
730
Rajasthan
12
101
1050
Rithola Toll
Rajasthan
12
54
270
Rajasthan
12
50
12
12
103
Rajasthan
12
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Total
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
12
Tamil Nadu
12
Total
Tam il Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
12
Uttar Pradesh
12
20
Uttar Pradesh
12
32
170
Uttar Pradesh
12
72
350
Uttar Pradesh
12
33
160
Uttar Pradesh
12
51
200
Uttar Pradesh
12
71
380
Uttar Pradesh
12
62
330
Uttar Pradesh
12
55
470
Uttar Pradesh
12
63
260
Uttar Pradesh
12
65
350
Uttar Pradesh
12
48
360
Uttar Pradesh
12
80
Uttar Pradesh
12
84
1000
360
101
1050
12
40
280
12
100
450
12
70
500
550
4380
61
220
47
140
109
360
58
180
Uttar Pradesh
12
56
Uttar Pradesh
12
77
NA
Uttar Pradesh
12
56
450
Uttar Pradesh
12
Total
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
West Bengal
72
240
960
5360
12
29
140
12
55
280
West Bengal
12
54
410
West Bengal
12
52
440
West Bengal
12
64
440
Total
West Bengal
254
1710
Project
State
Contract
Period
(m onths)
Annual
Potential
Length (km )
Collection
(in m illions)
84
500
Andhra Pradesh
12
Andhra Pradesh
12
108
690
Andhra Pradesh
12
63
200
Andhra Pradesh
12
39
210
Andhra Pradesh
12
38
200
104
Andhra Pradesh
24
103
330
Andhra Pradesh
12
79
390
Andhra Pradesh
24
48
170
Andhra Pradesh
24
116
610
Andhra Pradesh
12
41
130
Andhra Pradesh
12
66
200
Andhra Pradesh
12
88
270
Andhra Pradesh
12
84
380
Total
Andhra Pradesh
957
4280
Assam
12
18
260
Assam
12
70
Total
Assam
27
320
Bihar
12
80
240
Bihar
12
37
240
Bihar
12
70
150
Total
Bihar
187
630
12
80
440
12
Total
Ahmedabad Toll Plaza, Auda Ring Road Toll Plaza, Nadiad Toll
Plaza, Anand Toll Plaza and Vadodara Toll Plaza (AVEW)
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
3 months may
be increased or
decreased
3 months may
be increased or
decreased
12
Gujarat
Gujarat
Total
Gujarat
Total
Jharkhand
Total
Jharkhand
Karnataka
12
Karnataka
60
350
140
790
93
1150
98
460
55
220
12
72
130
12
45
180
363
2140
81
430
81
430
78
550
78
550
22
150
24
71
250
12
12
Karnataka
12
71
460
Karnataka
12
80
570
Total
Karnataka
244
1430
Madhya Pradesh
12
61
70
Madhya Pradesh
12
Total
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
59
70
120
140
12
190
12
57
170
105
Maharashtra
12
17
Maharashtra
12
30
90
Maharashtra
12
29
500
Total
Maharashtra
142
1020
Odisha
12
57
340
Odisha
12
75
380
Odisha
12
63
240
Odisha
12
65
260
Odisha
12
70
330
Odisha
12
10.3
90
340
1640
Odisha
70
Punjab
12
36
10
Punjab
12
40
270
Total
Punjab
76
280
Rajasthan
12
82
730
Rajasthan
12
54
280
Rajasthan
12
Total
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
12
54
230
Tamil Nadu
12
33
1320
Tamil Nadu
12
62
230
Tamil Nadu
12
47
190
Tamil Nadu
12
47
360
Tamil Nadu
12
61
330
Tamil Nadu
12
47
220
Total
Tam il Nadu
351
2880
Uttar Pradesh
12
32
280
Uttar Pradesh
12
41
210
Uttar Pradesh
12
35
240
Uttar Pradesh
12
11
140
Uttar Pradesh
12
61
480
Uttar Pradesh
12
33
200
Uttar Pradesh
12
31
280
Uttar Pradesh
12
90
Uttar Pradesh
12
77
120
Uttar Pradesh
12
56
340
Uttar Pradesh
24
68
470
Uttar Pradesh
12
46
200
Uttar Pradesh
12
62
300
Uttar Pradesh
12
50
70
Uttar Pradesh
12
65
370
Uttar Pradesh
12
65
400
Uttar Pradesh
12
NA
20
Uttar Pradesh
12
48
410
Uttar Pradesh
12
84
800
106
70
490
206
1500
Uttar Pradesh
12
75
420
Uttar Pradesh
12
62
410
Uttar Pradesh
12
58
270
Uttar Pradesh
12
72
290
Uttar Pradesh
12
51
290
1189
7100
12
52
220
12
62
620
West Bengal
12
64
590
West Bengal
12
69
130
247
1560
Total
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
Project
State
Contract
Period
(m onths)
Annual
Potential
Length (km )
Collection
(in m illions)
Andhra Pradesh
12
50
280
Andhra Pradesh
12
44
240
Andhra Pradesh
12
55
210
Andhra Pradesh
12
116
620
Andhra Pradesh
12
108
630
Andhra Pradesh
12
84
570
Andhra Pradesh
12
36
220
Andhra Pradesh
12
45
200
Andhra Pradesh
12
90
Andhra Pradesh
12
41
179
Andhra Pradesh
12
31
127
Andhra Pradesh
12
39
207
Andhra Pradesh
12
63
298
Andhra Pradesh
12
103
443
Andhra Pradesh
12
39
214
Andhra Pradesh
12
75
542
Total
Andhra Pradesh
929
5069
Bihar
12
60
320
Bihar
12
37
180
Bihar
12
79
205
Bihar
24
69
110
Bihar
24
10
156
Bihar
12
79
152
107
Bihar
12
140
115
Bihar
12
80
276
Total
Bihar
763
1741
Jharkhand
12
80
400
Jharkhand
24
74
370
Jharkhand
12
117
415
Jharkhand
12
Total
Jharkhand
Karnataka
79
629
349
1814
12
64
370
Karnataka
12
80
420
Karnataka
12
71
370
Karnataka
12
22
130
Karnataka
12
55
295
Karnataka
12
59
Total
Karnataka
293
1644
Kerala
12
16
80
ROB Padannakkad
Kerala
12
Total
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
60
17
140
24
57
200
12
43
157
Madhya Pradesh
12
42
162
Madhya Pradesh
12
Total
Madhya Pradesh
JNPT (Toll Plaza Near Chirle village &Toll Plaza near Karanjade
village)
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Total
Maharashtra
Odisha
Odisha
Odisha
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
12
83
846
Rajasthan
12
101
1061
Rajasthan
12
Total
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
129
142
648
12
29
590
12
58
156
87
746
12
77
220
12
65
360
Odisha
12
73
368
Odisha
12
63
349
278
1297
12
100
500
12
NA
440
40
236
324
3083
12
64
220
Tamil Nadu
12
47
506
Tamil Nadu
12
64
400
Tamil Nadu
12
47
186
Tamil Nadu
12
51
320
Tamil Nadu
12
47
473
Tamil Nadu
47
Tamil Nadu
12
NA
68
108
Tamil Nadu
12
NA
60
Tamil Nadu
12
47
186
Tamil Nadu
46
Total
Tam il Nadu
459
2417
Uttar Pradesh
12
71
400
Uttar Pradesh
12
47
170
Uttar Pradesh
12
85
960
Uttar Pradesh
12
110
Uttar Pradesh
12
35
301
Uttar Pradesh
65
NA
Uttar Pradesh
12
68
471
Uttar Pradesh
12
32
182
Uttar Pradesh
12
56
337
Uttar Pradesh
12
58
276
Uttar Pradesh
12
72
332
Uttar Pradesh
46
198
Uttar Pradesh
64
294
Uttar Pradesh
NA
Uttar Pradesh
12
32
478
Uttar Pradesh
12
Total
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
West Bengal
49
81
785
4592
12
53
310
12
44
260
West Bengal
12
64
627
West Bengal
12
62
635
West Bengal
12
62
260
Total
West Bengal
285
2092
51
260
Total
51
260
Gujarat
12
65
96
Gujarat
12
52
315
Gujarat
12
45
219
Gujarat
12
48
433
Gujarat
12
72
250
Gujarat
12
51
41
Gujarat
55
Total
Gujarat
Meghalaya
Total
Meghalaya
12
387
1353
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Total
Punjab
12
36
30
Punjab
12
40
266
Total
Punjab
76
296
109
Potential Collection
(in Rs. Million)
Melagaon-Nandgaon SH 16
24
22
12
37
Melagaon- Mehekar
36
178
36
95
36
29
Project
Potential Collection
(in Rs. Million)
36
226
36
92
36
284
36
253
Wagholi-Sopara-Tulinj-Pelhar Road
36
35
Wardha-Pulgoan Road
36
122
36
106
36
103
36
31
36
36
36
122
36
107
NagpurBoriTuljapur Road
36
317
Project
Potential Collection
(in Rs. Million)
156
392
36
33
Melagaon-Nandgaon SH 16
36
39
36
256
104
2480
Project
110
Concession
Potential Collection
Period (m onths)
(in Rs. Million)
12
55
Bikaner bypass
12
60
Hanumangarh- sriganganagar
12
34
12
280
24
235
Concession
Potential Collection
Period (m onths)
(in Rs. Million)
Gotan to Sojat
24
240
21
72
Fatehnagar-Dariba Road
21
36
21
147
Pali-Nadol Road
24
20
Chomu-Ajitgarh-Shahpura Road
12
31
12
39
Pali-Nadol Road
12
20
529 days
53
12
62
Sri Ganganagar-Hanumangarh
Bikaner Byepass
Concession
Potential Collection
Period (m onths)
(in Rs. Million)
Chomu-Ajitgarh-Shahpura Road
12
39
12
91
12
67
12
138
Dabok-Mavli-Kapasan-Chittorgarh Road
12
178
Bikaner Bypass
12
69
12
39
12
45
12
23
Kotputali-Neemkathana-Sikar-Kuchamana Road
12
232
Jaipur-Jobner-Kuchamana-Nagaur
12
169
111
Potential Collection
(in Rs. Million)
Lalsot - Kota
12
238
Alw ar - Sikandra
12
153
12
310
12
1022
Project
12
84
9 months,
extendable to 12
months
43
12
40
Baran to Jhalaw ar
12
19
Concession Period
(m onths)
12
12
12
UP Border-Sonepat-Gohana road
12
12
Kaithal Patiala
12
12
12
12
112
Project
Kaithal- Patiala
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
Concession
Potential Collection
Period (m onths)
(in Rs. Million)
12
69
12
74
12
12
Sambalpur-Rourkela Road
12
106
Berhampur-Govindapur Road
12
Sambalpur-SonepurRoad
12
Gunupur-Bisamkatak Road
12
Bangamunda-Chandatora Road
12
12
Dhenkanal-Kamakhyanagar Road
12
Boudh-Kiakata Road
12
113
Potential Collection
(in Rs. Million)
12
89
12
75
12
Buddhambo-Buguda Road
12
12
12
12
12
12
23
12
12
Project
Project
Rajapur Village & susheel nagar in Bellary district
12
12
770
12
420
Potential Collection
(in Rs. Million)
36
6.3
36
17
Project
Municipal projects
Toll collection model is also implemented by a few municipal corporations.
Authority
Hooghly Bridge
114
D) Outlook for toll collection model for NHAI and key states
Outlook on NHAI projects: NHAI toll collection stretch to increase 1.3 times over next four years
NHAI initiated the process of awarding projects on tolling towards the end of 2009-10 and as of 2013-14 around
6,800 km of National Highways constructed under EPC and BOT Annuity are under tolling. We expect it to increase
1.3 times over the next five years and touch 9,000 km by 2017-18, primarily driven by a number of to be awarded
projects to be implemented on EPC/Cash contract basis. The total number of toll collection projects are expected to
increase from around 120 projects currently to 145-150 by 2017-18 (assuming an average length of 80 km for
NHAI toll collection project).
In value terms, the tolling market is expected to increase by 1.7 times from Rs 37 billion in 2013-14 to Rs 62 billion
by 2017-18.
*For detailed outlook on Toll Collection market from NHAI please refer Chapter 8.
Toll Collection Market Opportunity from NHAI
km
Rs. billion
~145-150 projects
70.0
10000
9,000 km
60.0
~120 projects
50.0
8000
7000
6,800 km
6000
40.0
62
30.0
20.0
9000
5000
4000
3000
37
2000
10.0
1000
0.0
0
2013-14
Annual Potential Collection
2017-18
Length of NHAI on tolling
Note: Market in value terms has been presented in terms of project cost paid by the contractor to NHAI. We have assumed a 5
per cent increase in project cost per year
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
Outlook on state highway projects: State highway toll collection stretch to increase 1.5
times over next four years
As of March 2013, states of Maharashtra, Haryana, Rajasthan and Odisha had around 4500 km (84-86 projects) of
state highway stretches for which bids have been invited for tolling. The estimated annual potential collection for
these tolling projects was Rs 5.4 billion. More projects were invited for bidding in 2013-14. The total number of
projects increased from around 85 to 102 by end of 2013-14, while the total length invited for bidding till March
115
2014 increased to 5,350 km. The total estimated annual potential collection from all projects invited till March 2014
is around Rs 9.4 billion.
As per our discussion with state officials, we expect the total stretch under toll collection model (for which bids will
be invited) to increase 1.5 times from around 5,350 km in 2013-14 to around 7,900 km by 2017-18. The total
number of toll collection projects (on bids invited basis) are expected to increase from around 102 (in 2013-14) to
140-145 projects in 2017-18 (assuming an average length of 50 km for state authority toll collection project for
which project length is not available in the public domain).
In value terms, the tolling market is expected to grow from Rs 9.4 billion in 2013-14 to Rs 19.7 billion by 2017-18.
For detailed outlook on Toll Collection market from state authorities please refer Chapter 9.
Toll Collection Market Opportunity from key states
Rs. billion
~140-145 projects
25.0
9000
7,900 km
20.0
km
~102 projects
8000
7000
6000
15.0
5,350 km
5000
20
10.0
4000
3000
5.0
2000
1000
0.0
0
2013-14
Annual Potential Collection
2017-18
Length of State Highways on tolling
1. Length & market potential of toll collection for 2013-14 and 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids were / are
expected to be invited by the key state authorities.
2. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in estimated project cost per year .
3. Toll collection oppurtunity for 2017-18 includes oppurtunity from states of Maharashtra, Haryana, Rajasthan, Karnataka ,
Gujarat, Tamil nadu and Odisha
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
Overall outlook: Overall toll collection stretch to increase 1.4 times over next four years
We expect the total stretch of highways under toll collection model for NHAI and key states to increase by 1.4 times
from around 12,150 km in 2013-14 to around 16,900 km by 2017-18. CRISIL Research expects the total number
of toll collection projects to increase from around 222 (in 2013-14) to 285-290 in 2017-18. The state highway
projects, which are expected to account for around 2,550 km (54 per cent) of the total additional length of toll
collection projects (around 4,750 km) will drive the growth.
116
kms
~16,900 kms
18,000
350
16,000
285-290
projects
~12,150 kms
14,000
7,900
12,000
~222 projects
10,000
300
250
200
5,350
8,000
150
6,000
9,000
4,000
6,800
100
50
2,000
-
0
2013-14
NHAI Projects
2017-18
1. Length of toll collection projects for key states for 2013 -14 and 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids were / are
expected to be invited by the key state authorit ies.
2. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in estimated project cost per year .
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
In terms of the market opportunity in value terms, we expect the toll collection market from NHAI and state
highways (combined) to increase around 1.8 times from Rs 46.4 billion in 2013-14 to Rs 81.7 billion by 2017-18.
90.0
80.0
19.7
70.0
60.0
Rs. 46.4 bn
50.0
40.0
9.4
62.0
30.0
20.0
37.0
10.0
0.0
2013-14
NHAI Projects
2017-18
State Highway Projects
1. Length of toll collection projects for key states for 2013 -14 and 2017-18 is based on the projects for whic h bids were / are
expected to be invited by the key state authorities.
2. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in estimated project cost per year .
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
117
6. COMPETITIVE ASSESSMENT
A) Key players in the OMT market
MEP Infrastructure Developers Private Limited MEPIDPL (OMT and Toll)
Background
MEP Infrastructure Developers Private Limited (MEPIDPL), incorporated in August 2002, is promoted by Mr D. P.
Mhaiskar, Mr. J. D. Mhaiskar and Ideal Toll & Infrastructure Private Limited, who are amongst the original
promoters of Ideal Road Builders Private Limited (IRB). MEPIDPL solely focuses on undertaking contracts for toll
collection and OMT projects.
OMT Projects
NHAI has awarded three OMT projects to MEPIDPL amounting to about 527 km of National Highways. The
estimated project cost for these projects was around Rs 3,403 million.
OMT Projects awarded to MEPIDPL by NHAI till April 2014
State
Length
(Km )
Lane
(Km )
Estim ated
project cost
(Rs. Million)
Total
concession
period (years)
Tamil Nadu
243
973
1395
Tamil Nadu
33
196
478
AndhraPradesh
251
1005
1530
527
2174
3403
* - Lane km refers to the multiplication result of the total main carriage way length (exclusive of service and slip road) with the number of lanes of
the highway section
** - Of all the OMT projects awarded by NHAI, Chennai bypass is the only 6 laned stretch. All other NHAI OMT projects are for 4 laned
stretches
Source: CRISIL Research
Apart from NHAI projects, the company is also executing BOT/OMT projects from MSRDC. In 2010, the company
was awarded a project entailing securitisation of 5 entry points for Mumbai toll plazas, and operation and
maintenance (includes periodic and special maintenance) of 27 major flyovers on OMT basis (around 25.30 km).
This is for a concession period of 16 years. For securing the grant for the project, the lump sum upfront payment
made by the company to MSRDC was Rs 21 billion. The company collects toll at 5 Mumbai entry points, that is,
Vashi, Mulund, Lal Bahadur Shastri Marg, Dahisar and Airoli toll plazas. Before the award of concession in
November 2010, the company was the toll collector at the entry points since 2002. Further, in 2010-11, the
company started construction of the four lane Sakhali bridge on Karha River in Baramati and Operation,
maintenance and collection of toll for the Ring Road and the bridges in Baramati at 5 toll points for a concession
period of 19 years
.
118
Project Nam e
MSRDC
5 Mumbai entry
points
Project Description
- Securitization of 5 entry points for Mumbai toll plazas and maintenance of
27 major flyovers on OMT basis, for a concession period of 16 years
- Lumpsum upfront payment to MSRDC for this project w as Rs. 21 billion
Rajiv Gandhi
Sealink (RGSL)
MSRDC
- Operation & Maintenance of Rajiv Gandhi Sea Link (~ 5 km) and toll plaza
& collection of toll for a contract period of 3 years (156 w eeks)
-Estimated project cost of this project w as Rs. 2.65 billion
Project Nam e
Project Description
MSRDC
5 toll points at
Baramati
Construction of the four lane Sakhali bridge and operation & Maintenance
of 5 toll points at Baramati for a concession period of 19 years
Toll Projects
The company has undertaken tolling projects in various parts of the country. It has undertaken / is currently
executing the following key projects (long tenure & short to normal tenure projects) in the toll collection space.
Long Tenure (concession period > 1 year) toll collection projects of MEPIDPL as on June 30, 2014
Authority
Project
State
Concession Period
HRBC
West Bengal
5 years
RIDCOR
Rajasthan
5 years
MSRDC
Maharashtra
3 years
MSRDC
Maharashtra
3 years
MSRDC
Maharashtra
3 years
MSRDC
Maharashtra
2 years
MSRDC
Maharashtra
3 years
MSRDC
Maharashtra
2 years
RSRDC
Rajasthan
21 months
TNRDC
Tamil Nadu
3 yrs
119
Short Tenure (concession period< = 1 year) ongoing / completed toll collection projects of MEPIDPL as March 31, 2014
Authority
Project
State
Authority
Project
State
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
NHAI
Bihar
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
NHAI
Gujarat
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
NHAI
AnandToll Plaza
Gujarat
NHAI
Gujarat
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
NHAI
Gujarat
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
NHAI
Gujarat
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
NHAI
Gujarat
NHAI
NHAI
Gujarat
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
NHAI
Karnataka
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
NHAI
Karnataka
NHAI
NHAI
Karnataka
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
NHAI
Madhya Pradesh
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
NHAI
Madhya Pradesh
NHAI
NHAI
Maharashtra
NHAI
West Bengal
NHAI
Maharashtra
NHAI
West Bengal
Rajasthan
NHAI
Maharashtra
NHAI
NHAI
Maharashtra
MSRDC
Maharashtra
NHAI
Maharashtra
MSRDC
Maharashtra
MSRDC
Maharashtra
MSRDC
Maharashtra
MSRDC
NHAI
Maharashtra
NHAI
Odisha
NHAI
Odisha
NHAI
Odisha
NHAI
SergarhToll Plaza
Odisha
NHAI
Odisha
MSRDC
NHAI
Odisha
RIDCOR
NHAI
Jharkhand
NHAI
Jharkhand
RIDCOR
120
Maharashtra
Based on a sample of 241 NHAI toll projects (for which financial bids have been opened/awarded) in 2011-12,
2012-13 and 2013-14, the company has submitted financial bids for 50-55 per cent of the projects. However, for
projects with Annual Potential Collection (APC) of more than Rs 200 million, the share is 55-60 per cent.
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (operations solely covering OMT and Toll Segments)
Param eter
Unit
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
Total Income
Rs. Mn
13,051.70
11,366.00
4,811.00
Operating Profit
Rs. Mn
3,945.50
2,395.70
1,154.60
Operating Margin
30.20%
21.10%
24.00%
Rs. Mn
412
-1,378.00
-1,072.00
3.20%
-12.10%
-22.30%
OMT Projects
Available information on the company indicates that it operates primarily in the OMT space (within the tolling and
OMT domain) and till date has been awarded three OMT projects by NHAI, amounting to about 400 km of National
Highway. The estimated project cost for these projects was around Rs 930 million.
121
Length
Lane km *
(Km )
State
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
O&M of Baran-Shivpuri section of NH-76 and ShivpuriJhansi section of NH-25 under OMT basis
Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh and Uttar
Pradesh
Total
Total
Balance
Concession Concession
Period
Period
120
480
160
6 years
~4years
85
339
580
9 years
~9 years
196
784
190
6 years
~4years
401
1,603
930
* - Lane km refers to the multiplication result of the total main carriage way length (exclusive of service and slip road) with the
number of lanes of the highway section
Source: CRISIL Research
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
Total income for the company declined to Rs 1,957 million in 2012-13 from Rs 2,110 million in 2011-12. However,
EBITDA margins increased to 18 per cent in 2012-13 from 12.5 per cent in 2011-12. Also, net profits for the
company increased from Rs 87 million in 2011-12 to Rs 126 million in 2012-13.
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
Param eter
Unit
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
Total Income
Rs. Mn
1,957
2,110
1,171
EBITDA
Rs. Mn
352
264
204
EBITDA margin
18.0%
12.5%
17.4%
Net Profit
Rs. Mn
126
87
97
6.4%
4.1%
8.3%
122
OMT Projects
Available information on the company indicates that the company operates primarily in the OMT space (within the
tolling and OMT domain) and has been awarded 2 OMT projects by NHAI of around 550 km of National Highways.
The estimated project cost for these projects was around Rs 2,590 million.
State
Length
(Km )
Estim ated
Project
Cost (Rs
Million)
Lane km *
Total
Balance
Concession Concession
Period
Period
325
1,300
1,390
9 years
~9years
222
887
1,200
9years
~9years
* -Lane km refers to the multiplication result of the total main carriage way length (exclusive of service and slip road) with
the number of lanes of the highway section
Source: CRISIL Research
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
The total income for the company rose from Rs 3,662 million in 2011-12 from Rs 5,705 million in 2012-13. Also, net
profits for the company increased from Rs 76.9 million in 2011-12 to Rs 158.1 million in 2012-13.
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
Param eter
Unit
2012-13
2011-12
Total Income
Rs. Mn
5,705
3,663
PBT
Rs. Mn
230
148
Net Profit
Rs. Mn
158
77
2.8%
2.1%
123
OMT Projects
BVSR Constructions has been awarded two OMT projects by NHAI of around 55 km of National. The estimated
project cost for these projects was around Rs 430 million.
OMT Projects awarded to BVSR Construction till April 2014
Length
(Km )
State
Kerela
17
67
180
9 years
~9years
Karnataka
37
150
250
9years
~9years
54
217
430
Total
Lane km *
Estim ated
Total
Balance
Project Cost Concession Concession
(Rs Million)
Period
Period
Tolling Projects
* Note: BVSR has executed a few toll collection projects for NHAI in the past; however, information for the same is not available
in the public domain.
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
The total income for the company rose to Rs 3,139 million in 2011-12 from Rs 2,929 million in 2010-11. However,
operating margins dropped to 7.9 per cent in 2011-12 from 14.1 per cent in 2010-11. Also, net profits for the
company declined from Rs 242 million in 2010-11 to Rs 141 million in 2011-12.
124
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
Param eter
Unit
2011-12
2010-11
Total income
Rs million
3,139
2,929
Operating margin
per cent
7.9%
13.8%
Net profit
Rs million
141
242
Net margins
per cent
4.5%
8.3%
OMT Projects
Available information on the company indicates that it operates primarily in the OMT space (within the OMT and
tolling domain). PIPL has been awarded one OMT project by NHAI of around 260 km of National Highways. The
estimated cost for this project was around Rs 1,840 million.
OMT Projects awarded to PIPL till April 2014
Nam e of the OMT Package
State
Length
(Km )
260
Lane km *
1,040
Estim ated
Project Cost
(Rs Million)
1,840
Total
Balance
Concession Concession
Period
Period
9 years
~6years
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
The total income increased to Rs 4,680 million in 2012-13 from Rs 2,530 million in 2011-12, registering a growth of
about 84.9 per cent. Also, operating margins for the company increased to 7.6 per cent in 2012-13 from 7.2 per
cent in 2011-12. Net profits for the company increased drastically from Rs 118 million in 2011-12 to Rs 23.5 million
in 2012-13.
125
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll
and OMT)
Param eter
Unit
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
Total Income
Rs. Mn
4,680
2,530
2,157
Operating Profit
Rs. Mn
357
181
153
Operating Margin
7.6%
7.2%
7.1%
Net Profit
Rs. Mn
235
118
101
5.0%
4.7%
4.7%
PIL is engaged in diversified construction activities such as construction of highways, bridges, flyovers, airport
runways and allied activities. It has also forayed into the power transmission sector, undertaking construction for
erection of transmission towers. Apart from construction activities, the company also undertakes OMT of roads.
OMT Projects
Available information on the company indicates that the company operates primarily in the OMT space (within the
tolling and OMT domain) and has been awarded one OMT project by NHAI of around 217 km of National Highway.
The estimated cost for this project was around Rs 920 million.
OMT Projects awarded to PNC Infratech till April 2014
Nam e of the OMT Package
State
Length
(Km )
217
Estim ated
Total
Balance
Lane km * Project Cost Concession Concession
(Rs Million)
Period
Period
869
920
9 years
~9years
126
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
The total income increased to Rs 13,035 million in 2012-13 from Rs 12,732 million in 2011-12. Operating margins
for the company decreased slightly to 10.9 per cent in 2012-13 from 11 per cent in 2011-12. Net profits for the
company increased from Rs 784.2 million in 2011-12 to Rs 791.1 million in 2012-13.
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT
Param eter
Unit
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
Total Income
Rs. Mn
13,035
12,732
11,391
Rs. Mn
1,420
1,400
1,131
Operating Margin
10.9%
11.0%
9.9%
Rs. Mn
791
784
702
6.1%
6.2%
6.2%
MBL Infrastructure
Background
The company started as a partnership firm under the name of Maheshwari Brothers Limited in 1995, which got reincorporated in year 2006 as MBL Infrastructures Limited. MBL is engaged in the construction and maintenance of
roads, construction of industrial infrastructure projects and OMT of highways.
OMT Projects
Available information on the company indicates that it operates primarily in the OMT space (within the tolling and
OMT domain) and has been awarded one OMT project by NHAI of around 52 km of National Highway. The
estimated cost for this project was around Rs 220 million.
State
West Bengal
Length
(Km)
52
Lane
km*
209
Estimated
Total
Balance
Project Cost Concession Concession
(Rs Million)
Period
Period
220
9 years
~9years
* - Lane km refers to the multiplication result of the total main carriage way length (exclusive of service and slip road) with the
number of lanes of the highway section
Source: CRISIL Research
127
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
The total income of MBL Infrastructure increased from Rs 12,532 million in 2011-12 to Rs 13,440 million in 201213. However, operating margins have dipped to 10 per cent in 2012-13 against 12.8 per cent in 2011-12. Also, net
profits for the company declined from Rs 708 million in 2011-12 to Rs 553 million in 2012-13.
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
Param eter
Unit
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
Total Income
Operating Profit
Rs. Mn
13,440
12,532
9,939
Rs. Mn
1,348
1,604
1,299
Operating Margin
10.0%
12.8%
13.1%
Net Profit
Rs. Mn
553
708
603
4.1%
5.6%
6.1%
Toll projects
Some of the key tolling projects that have been undertaken by the company are:
Toll projects
Nam e of the project
Client
State
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
1,460
NHAI
West Bengal
860
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
390
NHAI
Odisha
340
NHAI
Odisha
330
NHAI
Madhya Pradesh
310
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
230
NHAI
Karnataka
100
NHAI
West Bengal
260.2
NHAI
Jharkhand
365.3
NHAI
West Bengal
220.1
NHAI
Gujarat
314.7
Note: The aforementioned project list includes projects executed by the company in the past and under
execution projects)
Source: Industry, CRISIL Research
128
Based on a sample of 241 NHAI toll projects (for which financial bids have been opened/awarded) in 2011-12,
2012-13 and 2013-14, the company has submitted financial bids for 15-20 per cent of the projects. However, for
projects with Annual Potential Collection (APC) of more than Rs 200 million, the share is 25-30 per cent.
Key clientele
NHAI is a key client for Konark Infrastructure Limited. KIL also undertakes projects for government/municipal
agencies such as MSRDC and KDMC.
Gujarat (West)
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
The total income decreased to Rs 7,259 million in 2012-13 from Rs 12,302 million in 2011-12. However, EBITDA
margins for the company increased to 5.3 per cent in 2012-13 from 4.7 per cent in 2011-12. Net profits for the
company increased from Rs 219 million in 2011-12 to Rs 276 million in 2012-13.
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
Param eter
Unit
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
Total Income
Rs. Mn
7,259
12,302
10,278
EBITDA
Rs. Mn
383
577
456
EBITDA margin
5.3%
4.7%
4.4%
Net Profit
Rs. Mn
276
219
208
3.8%
1.8%
2.0%
129
Toll projects
Some of the key tolling projects undertaken by the company are:
Toll projects
Nam e of the project
Client
State
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
200
NHAI
Gujarat
120-130
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
250
NHAI
West Bengal
300
NHAI
Orissa
220
NHAI
Bihar
37
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
NHAI
Bihar
228
NHAI
Gujarat
10
Note: The aforementioned project list includes projects executed by the company in the past and under execution projects)
Source: Industry, CRISIL Research
Based on a sample of 241 NHAI toll projects (for which financial bids have been opened/ awarded) in 2011-12,
2012-13 and 2013-14, the company has submitted financial bids for about 15 per cent. However, for projects with
Annual Potential Collection (APC) of more than Rs 200 million, the share is about 10-15 per cent.
Key clientele
NHAI is the key client for Skylark Highways Limited.
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
The total income decreased to Rs 59 million in 2012-13 from Rs 81 million in 2011-12. However, EBITDA margins
for the company remained constant at about 3 per cent in 2012-13. Net profits for the company of Rs 16,700 in
2011-12 turned to losses of Rs 186,000 in 2012-13.
130
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
Param eter
Unit
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
Total Income
EBITDA
Rs. Mn
59
81
75
Rs. Mn
EBITDA Margin
5.1%
3.7%
10.7%
Net Profit
Rs. Mn
-0.19
0.02
2.92
-0.32%
0.02%
3.90%
Note: The aforementioned project list includes projects executed by the company in the past and under execution projects)
Source: Industry, CRISIL Research
Toll projects
Some of the key tolling projects that have been undertaken by the company are:
Toll projects
Nam e of the project
Client
State
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
110
NHAI
Karnataka
370
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
320
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
170
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
210
NHAI
Odisha
NA
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
330
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
NA
NHAI
Karnataka
347
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
301
NHAI
Karnataka
421
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
522
NHAI
J&K
NA
NHAI
Gujarat
250
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
127
131
Apart from the aforementioned tolling projects, the company has also executed projects in Madhya
Pradesh and Gujarat. Based on a sample of 241 NHAI toll projects (for which financial bids have been
opened/awarded) in 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14, the company has submitted financial bids for 20-25
per cent of the projects. However, for projects with Annual Potential Collection (APC) of more than Rs 200
million, the share is 25-30 per cent.
OMT projects
OMT projects
Nam e of the OMT Package
State
Tamil Nadu
Length
(Km )
125
Estim ated
Total
Balance
Lane
Project Cost Concession Concession
km *
(Rs Million)
Period
Period
499
650
9 years
~9years
* - Lane km refers to the multiplication result of the total main carriage way length (exclusive of service and slip road)
with the number of lanes of the highway section
Source: Industry, CRISIL Research
Key clientele
NHAI is the key client for Eagle Infra India Limited in this line of business.
132
Toll projects
Nam e of the project
Client
State
NHAI
Maharashtra
615
NHAI
Rajasthan
733
NHAI
Rajasthan
1045
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
210
NHAI
Rajasthan
278
*: Please note that project details executed by the companies are not available in the public domain.
Based on a sample of 241 NHAI toll projects (for which financial bids have been opened/awarded) in 2011-12,
2012-13 and 2013-14, the company has submitted financial bids for about 5 per cent of the projects. However, for
projects with Annual Potential Collection (APC) of more than Rs 200 million, the share is 5-10 per cent.
Clientele
NHAI is the key client for the company in the toll collection business. It also has executed contracts for municipal
bodies.
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
The total income increased to Rs 15,082 million in 2012-13 from Rs 14,145 million in 2011-12. Operating margin
for the company increased to 14.6 per cent in 2012-13 from 11.3 per cent in 2011-12. Net profit for the company
increased from Rs 171 million in 2011-12 to Rs 513 million in 2012-13.
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and
OMT)
Param eter
Unit
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
Total Income
Operating Profit
Rs. Mn
15,082
14,145
12,227
Rs. Mn
2,205
1,604
2,038
Operating Margin
14.6%
11.3%
16.7%
Net Profit
Rs. Mn
513
171
566
3.4%
1.2%
4.6%
133
business of octroi and toll collection at specific locations on a contractual basis. Due to limited opportunity in the
octroi collection business, SGL has shifted its focus from octroi collection to toll collection model. SGL has
executed a number of toll collection contracts for NHAI and state road development authorities. The company is
headquartered in Maharashtra.
Toll projects
The company was awarded its first toll project by MSRDC Limited, the IRDP Nagpur toll project in Maharashtra.
Some of the key projects undertaken by the company are:
Toll projects
Nam e of the project
Client
State
NHAI
Gujarat
120
NHAI
Gujarat
120-130
NHAI
Andhra Pradesh
239
NHAI
Rajasthan
50
NHAI
West Bengal
22
NHAI
Madhya Pradesh
13
NHAI
Bihar
NA
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
24
NHAI
Punjab
NA
NHAI
Bihar
18
NHAI
J&K
NA
NHAI
Punjab
NA
NHAI
Rajasthan
106
NHAI
Jharkhand
63
MSRDC
Maharashtra
NA
Note: The aforementioned project list has been executed by the company in the past (not necessarily under execution projects)
Source: Company website, Industry,CRISIL Research
Based on a sample of 241 NHAI toll projects (for which financial bids have been opened/awarded) in 2011-12,
2012-13 and 2013-14, the company has submitted financial bids for about 20 per cent of the projects. However, for
projects with Annual Potential Collection (APC) of more than Rs 200 million, the share is about 15-20 per cent
Key clientele
The company has in the past executed projects for NHAI and State Road Development Corporations (MSRDC and
RIDCOR).
134
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
The total income decreased to Rs 207.4 million in 2012-13 from Rs 348.5 in 2011-12. EBITDA margins for the
company increased to 35.7 per cent in 2012-13 from 22.4 per cent in 2011-12. Net profits for the company
decreased from Rs 38.54 million in 2011-12 to Rs 36.68 million in 2012-13.
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and
OMT)
Param eter
Unit
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
Total Income
Rs. Mn
207.4
348.5
223.4
EBITDA
Rs. Mn
74
78
86
EBITDA Margin
35.7%
22.4%
38.5%
Net Profit
Rs. Mn
37
39
40
17.7%
11.1%
17.7%
Toll projects
Nam e of the project
Client
State
NHAI
Jharkhand
435.6
NHAI
Rajasthan
732.5
NHAI
Gujarat
454.6
NHAI
Uttar Pradesh
384.9
*: Please note that project details executed by the companies are not available in the public domain.
Source: Company reports, CRISIL Research
Based on a sample of 241 NHAI toll projects (for which financial bids have been opened/awarded) in 2011-12,
2012-13 and 2013-14, the company has submitted financial bids for 5-10 per cent of the projects. Also, for projects
with Annual Potential Collection (APC) of more than Rs 200 million, the share is 5-10 per cent.
135
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
The total income for the company increased to Rs 2,627 million in 2011-12 from Rs 1831 million in 2010-11,
registering an increase of about 43 per cent over the previous year. Operating margins improved marginally to 10.8
per cent in 2011-12 from 10.7 per cent. Net profits of the company also registered a growth of about 41 per cent
and increased to Rs 97 million in 2011-12.
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll
and OMT)
Param eter
Unit
Total Income
Rs. Mn
Operating Margin
Rs. Mn
2011-12
2010-11
2,627
1,831
10.7%
10.8%
97
69
3.7%
3.8%
Toll projects
The following are the key projects, which were undertaken by the company in the toll collection and OMT space:
Toll projects
Nam e of the project
Client
State
NHAI
West Bengal
300
NHAI
Tamil Nadu
302
NHAI
Gujarat
433
Based on a sample of 241 NHAI toll projects (for which financial bids have been opened/awarded) in 2011-12,
2012-13 and 2013-14, the company has submitted financial bids for 0-5 per cent of the projects. Also, for projects
with Annual Potential Collection (APC) of more than Rs 200 million, the share is about 5 per cent.
136
OMT projects
OMT projects
State
Length
(Km )
Uttar Pradesh
118
472
710
Bihar
277
1,108
2,307
Lane
(Km )
total concession
period
9
NA
Key clientele
The company has in the past executed projects for National Highways Authority of India (NHAI), Hooghly River
Bridge Commissioners, PWD Rajasthan, PWD Jaipur and Raigad and HSRDC.
Financial performance (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
The total income increased to Rs 12,128.4 million in 2012-13 from Rs 11,608 million in 2011-12. Operating margin
for the company decreased to 5.1 per cent in 2012-13 from 6.6 per cent in 2011-12. Net profits for the company
decreased from Rs 569.3 million in 2011-12 to Rs 442 million in 2012-13. Toll collection as a percentage of total
income was around 22 per cent in 2011-12.
Key Financial Indicators: Consolidated (covering all business segments of the company, not limited to Toll and OMT)
Param eter
Unit
Total Income
Rs. Mn
Operating Profit
Rs. Mn
Operating Margin
Net Profit
Rs. Mn
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
12,129
11,608
13,944
622
768
623
5.1%
6.6%
4.5%
442
569
639
3.6%
4.9%
4.6%
137
Corporate office/HQ
Regional presence
(for Toll)
Clientele (Toll)
Projects(Bids/execu
ted) : Total
(per cent) 1
Projects(Bids/execu
ted) : More than Rs
200 m illion
(per cent) 2
MEPIDPL
Maharashtra
Konark
Infrastructure
Skylark
Eagle Infra
Gurgaon,
Haryana
Sangam
India
Lim ited
Sahakar Global
Shiva
corporation
SMS
Infrastructure
- Infra
(Roads- toll
collection)
- Textiles
- Steel
- Pow er
Maharashtra
Headquartere
d in Bhilw ara
and corporate
office in
Mumbai
Maharashtra
Bid/executed/
executing
projects in
Bid/executed/
Bid/executed/
Bid/executed/
executing executing projects executing projects
projects in
in
in
Bid/executed/
executing
projects in
Andhra
Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Gujrat
J&K
Karnataka
Orissa
Rajasthan
Uttar
Pradesh
Maharashtra
Uttar Pradesh
Bihar
Uttar Pradesh
Gujarat
NHAI,State
authorities
NHAI, state
authorities
Odisha,
Bihar
Gujarat
Rajasthan
Madhya pradesh
Jharkhand
Punjab
andhra pradesh
NHAI,
NHAI and municipal
Municipal
corporations
corporations
Rajasthan
Maharashtra
NHAI, State
authorities and
municipal
corporations
NHAI
NHAI, BOT
concessionai
res
NHAI
50-55
15-20
~15
20-25
~5
~20
5-10
0-5
55-60
25-30
5-10
25-30
5-10
15-20
5-10
~5
Note: 1.) Regional presence is based on projects for which the company has submitted financial bids in 2011-12, 2012-13,
and 2013-14 (also includes executed projects as mentioned above) with a sample size of 241 NHAI projects. 2.) This is based
on a sample size of 120 projects with APC-annual potential collection of more than Rs 200 million.
Source: Company websites, Industry, CRISIL Research
As indicated in the above table, MEPIDPL is a leading player in the business of toll collection based on the total
number of projects bid for and won by the company in 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14. At the next level, Eagle Infra
and then Konark Infrastructure are other major players in the toll collection business.
138
OMT
Param eters
MEPIDPL
PATH
Corporate
office
Regional
presence
(for OMT)
Key Clientele
(OMT)
No of OMT
projects
aw arded by
NHAI
Length of OMT
projects
aw arded (in
km)
Lane km of
OMT projects*
Estimated
project cost of
OMT projects
aw arded
(in Rs million)
DRAIPL
Maharashtra
Madhya
Pradesh
Tamil Nadu,
Rajasthan,
Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh
and
and Madhya
Maharashtra
Pradesh
NHAI and state NHAI
authorities (eg
MSRDC)
Patel
PNC
Infrastructure Infratech
BVSR
Gujarat &
Maharashtra
Uttar Pradesh,
Madhya
Pradesh,
Punjab
NHAI
Eagle Infra
SMS Infra
MBL Infra
- Infra (Roads- - Infra (Roads- - Infra (Roads- - Infra (Roads- - Infra(RoadsOMT, toll
BOT, O&M and construction OMT and toll
OMT & tolling.
collection and OMT, Urban
and OMT)
collection,
Othersconstruction) InfraUrban Infraconstruction
construction of
laying
of dams,
pipelines,
pipelines,
railw ays,
buildings, etc.)
roofing and
electrical,
truss w orks) multilevel
parking etc.)
Andhra
Gujarat
Pradesh
Karnataka and Gujarat
Kerela
Maharashtra
West Bengal
NHAI and
state
authorities
NHAI
NHAI and
state
authorities
NHAI
NHAI and
state
authorities
NHAI
~527
~400
~550
~55
~260
217
125
395
52
2,174
1,603
2,187
217
1,040
869
499
1,580
209
3,403
930
2,590
430
1,840
920
650
3,017
220
* - Lane km refers to the multiplication result of the total main carriage way length (exclusive of service and slip road) with the number of lanes of
the highway section
Source: Company websites, Industry, CRISIL Research
Considering the various factors such as number of projects, estimated project cost, length of projects, number of
lane kilometres maintained by a player under OMT projects, MEPIDPL is the leading player in the OMT field. Based
on the the same parameters, SMS Infrastructure, PATH and DRAIPL are the other key players in the OMT
segment.
Based on information presented in the above sections, MEPIDPL is a leading player in India across OMT and toll
collection segments combined.
139
Of the total OMT projects that have been awarded by NHAI over 2009-10 to 2013-14, MEPIDPL has bagged 3
projects. Prakash Asphaltings & Toll Highways (India) Limited (PATH) also has bagged 3 projects. Players that
have been awarded 2 projects each are DRAIPL, BVSR and SMS infrastructure Ltd.
Length of projects(Km )
Lane (Km )
MEPIDPL
~527
2174
3403
PATH
~400
1603
930
DRAIPL
~550
2187
2590
BVSR
~55
217
430
SMS
~395
1580
3017
Others
10
~1556
6222
9463
Total
22
3483
13983
19833
Com pany
* - Lane km refers to total project length into the number of lanes of the highway section.
Source: CRISIL Research
Other key players who have bagged 1 project each are Eagle Infra, Patel Infrastructure Private Ltd and PNC
Infratech, MBL Infrastructure Atlanta Ltd., GMR Highway Ltd.
Toll Market
The tolling market is highly fragmented in nature given the relatively lower risk levels associated with a tolling
project (as against a BOT or an EPC contract).
Under this contract, financial criteria for the bidder like minimum networth, annual turnover etc., are
relatively lower when compared to BOT or OMT contract.
Also, tolling projects do not entail any technical criteria (for NHAI projects).
Based on a sample of 241 NHAI toll projects (for which financial bids have been opened/awarded) in 2011-12,
2012-13 and 2013-14, each of the 3 players has bid for a substantial number of projects.
140
As inferred from the above points , MEPIDPL is a leading player in the business of toll collection based on the total
number of projects bid for and won by the company in 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14. At the next level, Eagle Infra
and then Konark Infrastructure are other major players in the toll collection business.
Sahakar Global, Sangam India, SMS Infrastructure, Skylark Securitas, Shiva Corporation etc. are some of the other
companies that operate in the market.
141
OMT / Toll Market from State Highways/ RDCs for Key States
State highways of the key 10-11 states under purview of the study have invited bids for 8,140 km as of 2013-14 for
OMT and tolling. While Rajasthan, Haryana, and Maharashtra have been proactive in terms of contracting state
highway projects for tolling, states such as Karnataka, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh have taken the OMT route for
bidding out projects. Going ahead, we expect state road authorities to increase the OMT and tolling stretch by 1.6
times from the current 8,140 km to around 13,200 km by 2017-18.
State highway sections expected to be bid for tolling projects will increase by 1.5 times to around 7,900 km
by 2017-18 with Karnataka and Rajasthan states expected to exhibit a higher growth.
Length of state highway sections expected to be bid for OMT projects will almost doubleto around 5,300
km driven by penetration levels.
OMT / Toll Market from BOT operators for national highways (indirect)
As of 2013-14, very few BOT players report contracting projects significantly to private players for toll and OMT.
Instead, many of them chose to contract with small private players for conducting only operation and maintenance
(O&M). However, going ahead, a number of BOT players are expected to exit from their projects given the difficult
financial situation being faced by them. This would represent a high opportunity as the new project owners
(typically, financial investors) can potentially opt for significantly contracting the operations to a private player,
primarily on OMT basis. Thereby we expect around 4,300-4,400 km of potential opportunity that can be contracted
by BOT players on OMT basis until 2017-18.
142
km
km
16,000
18000
16000
14,000
4,360
12,000
14000
7900
12000
10,000
10000
8,000
5,300
5350
8000
6,000
4,000
6000
2,790
4000
4,700
2,000
2000
2,360
2013-14
BOT Projects Potential Opportunity
9000
6800
2017-18
State Highway Project Market
0
2013-14
BOT Projects Potential Opportunity
2017-18
State Highway Project Market
Note: NHAI projects market and State highway projects market indicates the length (in km) which is expected to be bid till
2017-18. BOT projects potential opportunity indicates the market that can be available to OMT players if the announced and
expected plans of BOT players to financially exit from their BOT project gets through.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
OMT market from NHAI and state highways is expected to almost double from the current 5,150 km to around
10,000 km by 2017-18. Also, a significant potential opportunity of 4,300-4,400 km can emanate from BOT projects.
Hence the OMT market will primarily be driven by:
A number of BOT players exiting their current projects resulting in the new buyer to contract the projects on
OMT basis.
Rising penetration of OMT stretches in state highways, especially in the states of Karnataka, Bihar, and
Madhya Pradesh.
Number of projects bid out by NHAI on OMT mode are expected to increase from the current 14 to around 30-32
by 2017-18. Also, state highway authorities are expected to bid out 55-60 projects on OMT basis by 2017-18 from
the current 34 projects.
Tolling market is expected to increase by 1.4 times from the current 12,150 km to around 16,900 km by 2017-18.
The market will primarily be driven by:
Rising penetration of tolling stretches in state highways, especially for the states of Karnataka, Rajasthan,
and Haryana.
A number of stretches being awarded by NHAI on tolling basis (for new projects under implementation or to
be awarded under cash basis).
Number of projects bid out by NHAI on tolling basis are expected to increase from the current 120 (number of
projects that are currently tolled) to 145-150 by 2017-18. Also, state highway authorities are expected to bid out
140-145 projects on toll basis by 2017-18 from the current around 102 projects.
143
Rs bn
km
90
90
80
80
25
70
60
19.7
70
60
50
50
32.9
40
40
30
30
20
20
12.8
25
10
11
0
9.4
62
37
10
0
2013-14
2017-18
State Highway Project Market
2013-14
BOT Projects Potential Opportunity
2017-18
State Highway Project Market
Note: For OMT projects the value indicates the average project cost for bidded projects. For tolling projects the value
indicates the annual potential collection for bidded projects. The average project cost and annual potential collection has b een
increased at 5 per cent annually to account for inflation. Estimated project cost for 2013-14 does not reflect the cost for 11
projects invited for bidding by Madhya Pradesh in 2013 -14.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
In value terms, we expect value of project cost for OMT tenders bid out from NHAI and state highways to increase
by 2.4 times from the current Rs 23.8 billion to Rs 57.9 billion by 2017-18. This is primarily driven by rising
penetration of OMT in state highway stretches. Also, about Rs 25 billion of an additional potential opportunity exists
for OMT players, with an increasing number of BOT projects expected to be operated and maintained on OMT
basis, following the financial exit of existing players. In this scenario, the new buyers are expected to significantly
outsource the operation, maintenance, and tolling operations.
Value of projects bid out for tolling is expected to increase by 1.8 times from the current Rs 46.4 billion to Rs 81.7
billion by 2017-18, primarily driven by increasing penetration levels for state highways to be contracted / bid on
tolling basis. This is apart from a rising number of under implementation and yet to be awarded stretches being
built on cash basis that necessitate tolling.
The aforementioned outlook is based on the following assumptions and risk factors that can impact the volume and
value of projects under OMT and tolling:
NHAI and MORTH are expected to award around 18,500 km in the forecast period (until 2017-18), with a
significant portion of these stretches (60-65 per cent) expected to be awarded on cash basis, given the
current financial crunch being faced by BOT players.
Exit policy for BOT players has been approved by the Ministry and hence, we assume around 30 per cent
of BOT road length to be exited by their current operators (based on interactions with leading BOT
players).
144
All NHAI projects to be implemented and awarded on cash / annuity basis represents a market for OMT
and tolling.
o
A significant revision in the policy environment/ financial situation of road players may significantly
impact the mix of projects to be bid out between BOT model and cash contracts, impacting OMT
and toll markets.
A time lag of 3 years is assumed between awarding date for NHAI projects to project completion
(accounting for construction time and project delays).
Any change in future plans of individual states concerning OMT and / or tolling may result in significant shift
from past trends observed in the states and may impact the outlook.
For tolling projects awarded by state highways, we have assumed an average tolling length of 50 km per
project based on a sample of road sections covered in past tenders.
For forecasting OMT and tolling market size in value terms, we have assumed average project cost per km
for OMT projects and annual potential collection for tolling projects that have further been increased at 5
per cent annually to account for inflation.
The outlook does not account for any sudden/ unforeseen economic/ socio-political developments that can
significantly impact investment levels for the road sector.
145
Nearly 85 per cent of the total 7,573 km completed under Phase I (until 2013-14) were implemented on
cash contract basis.
More than 80 per cent of the 6,282 km completed under Phase II (until 2013-14) were implemented on
cash contract basis.
These projects completed under cash contract (EPC) will entail operation, maintenance and tolling to be awarded
to private agencies either as a singular package of OMT (operation, maintenance, and tolling) or as separate
packages (with tolling being awarded separately). Also, about 1,400 km of projects built under BOT (Annuity) until
2013-14 would require NHAI to hire a private agency / contractor to handle tolling operations.
However, a significant stretch of kilometres under the golden quadrilateral or NHDP I (around 5,700 km) are being
upgraded as part of NHDP Phase V. The government aims to implement majority of projects under Phase V via the
BOT-Toll model, as traffic volumes on these stretches may look attractive for private players. Moreover, the
concessionaire will be allowed to collect toll on the existing four-lane highways from the date of financial closure of
the project, which will result in cash inflows even before construction commences. Around 38 per cent of road
length under this phase is under implementation and around 28 per cent has been constructed (balance 37 per
cent to be awarded).
4,326
407
417
443
6,000
2,419
4,000
7,573
6,282
6,098
2,262
Phase II
Phase III
Phase V
2,000
1,819
0
Phase I
Balance to be Awarded
146
Under Implementation
Completed
100%
90%
7-10%
5-7%
80%
84-86%
9-11%
10-11%
> 80%
79-80%
70%
95%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
< 20%
10%
5%
0%
Phase I
Phase II
Toll
Phase III
Annuity
Phase V
Cash
Nearly 90 per cent length completed under NHDP Phase I and II (for cash and annuity projects) and around 5 per
cent of length completed under NHDP Phase III (for annuity project), constitutes the current market potential for
OMT and tolling projects i.e. 12,500-13,000 km. Of this, as of 2013-14, 2,360 km have been awarded on OMT
basis and around 6,800 km on toll basis (i.e. 9,160 km for OMT and toll).
Of this, however, around 75 per cent of the length is expected to be awarded during the latter half of the
forecast period (i.e. post 2015-16 to 2017-18).
Also, we expect 60-65 per cent of the total projects to be awarded on cash contract, given the relatively low
interest in BOT projects amongst developers in the current market scenario. Player interest is expected to
remain high in EPC projects on account of limited upfront capital requirement and lower risk compared to
BOT projects.
* National highway projects are under the purview of both NHAI and MORTH. Of the 18,500 km we expect around
15,500 km to be awarded by NHAI.
Hence, over the next one to two years, we expect majority of the projects to get awarded through the cash contract
route:
In 2014-15, nearly 75 per cent of project length is expected to be awarded on cash contract basis and 1011 per cent on annuity basis.
147
From 2015-16 to 2017-18, we expect 50-60 per cent of project length to be awarded on cash contract and
around 20 per cent on annuity basis.
Hence around 12,000 km of NHDP projects are expected to be awarded on cash and annuity basis until 2017-18.
We expect projects awarded in 2013-14 and 2014-15 to get implemented during our forecast period (of until
2017-18), given the construction period and potential delays associated with the project. This represents a
market of 4,500-4,600 km of NHDP projects (constructed on cash contract and annuity basis) available for the
purpose of OMT and tolling by NHAI until 2017-18.
Distribution between BOT Toll and Cash & Annuity models for NHAI
kms
25000
20000
8420
15000
3921
10000
13352
9626
Completed Projects
12000
5000
2406
0
BOT Toll
To be Awarded Projects
Of the completed NHDP projects, 13,350 km have been implemented on cash and annuity basis, of
which around 9,160 km has been awarded on OMT and Toll to private contractors until 2013-14, resulting
in a non-tolled section of around 4,200 km. Of this non-tolled section, we expect around 1,550 km to be
awarded on OMT basis.
Of the projects under implementation, we expect 2,400 km to be constructed on cash and annuity basis
thereby representing a future addition to the market for OMT and/or toll players.
Of the 15,500 km of NHDP projects to be awarded, we expect 12,000 km to be awarded on cash and
annuity basis. However, only 5,500 km of this is expected to be implemented by 2017-18.
Hence this represents an additional stretch of around 9,450 km for OMT and Toll players apart from the
existing market of 9,160 km.
However, around 5,700 km of NHDP Phase I are expected to be upgraded in NHDP Phase V with more
than 80 per cent of these projects expected to be completed and / or implemented on BOT Toll model
given that these stretches have high traffic potential. Therefore, we expect around 4,500 km from Phase I
to be upgraded under BOT Toll basis as part of Phase V.
This would result in OMT and Toll market increasing from the current 9,160 km to around 13,600-13,800
km by 2017-18.
148
Completed Projects
Completed NHDP
Projects
Under Implementation
projects
To be Awarded
Projects
Under implementation
NHDP Projects
To be Awarded NHDP
Projects in
2013 and 2014
+
Cash and Annuity
projects
Non - tolled
Tolled (on
OMT and
Tolling
basis)
Existing Projects to be
upgraded
Non - tolled
NHDP Projects of
Phase I to be upgraded
under Phase V
Assumed entired
section to be tolled
Majority to be built /
upgraded on BOT (toll)
basis hence reducing
opportunity for OMT and
Toll
13,600-13,800 kms
16000
14000
12000
9,160 kms
10000
9000
8000
6000
6800
4000
4700
2000
2360
0
2013-14
2017-18
OMT Market
Toll Market
Note: The above market is based on the assumption that all the additional stretches that are to be awarded or are under
implementation on cash and annuity basis will be tolled and hence represents a market for OMT and tolling players. Also,
1,500-1,600 km of the non-tolled section of completed projects under cash and annuity will be awarded on OMT basis. The
market size indicates he highway length to be bid.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
NHAI initiated the process of awarding projects under OMT module towards the end of 2009-10 and has awarded
around 2,360 km under this module till 2013-14. Based on our interactions with NHAI, we expect 2,300-2,400 km to
be added on OMT basis over the next four years (i.e. during 2014-15 to 2017-18). This would result in the total
stretch under OMT model double from the current 2,360 km to around 4,700 km by 2017-18.
In value terms, we expect the OMT market to increase 2.2 times from the current Rs 11 billion to Rs 25 billion by
2017-18. Market in value terms indicates the project cost.
149
OMT Market
Rs. billion
35
29
30
25
25
20
13
15
11
10
5
Project Cost
Concession Fees
2013-14
2017-18
Note: Market in value terms has been presented in terms of both project cost and the upfront concession fees paid by the
contractor to NHAI. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in project cost and concession fees per year.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
The national highways stretch under tolling to private contractors increased to around 6,800 km in 2013-14 from
being negligible in the latter half of 2009-10. It is expected to increase at 1.3 times over the next four years to touch
9,000 km by 2017-18.
In value terms, the tolling market is expected to increase by 1.7 times to touch Rs 62 billion by 2017-18.
Toll Market
Rs. billion
70
60
50
40
62
30
20
37
10
2013-14
2017-18
Note: Market in value terms indicates the potential collection as stated in the bidding document. We have assumed a 5 per
cent increase in potential collection per year.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
Of the around 12,000 km road length expected to be awarded on cash and annuity basis over the next four years,
we expect only 5,500 km to be implemented until 2017-18. Beyond 2017-18, we expect the remaining about 6,500
km to be implemented, representing the longer term market for OMT and tolling players.
150
33
30
25
21
18
20
15
11
11
10
10
3
Jharkhand
Himachal Pradesh
Punjab
Meghalaya
Assam
Orissa
Uttara Khand
Kerala
Bihar
Chattisgarh
Uttar Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
Rajasthan
Gujarat
Karnataka
Maharashtra
West Bengal
5
5
Haryana
10
Note: Indian states with state highways length of less than 1,000 km have not been included above. These states are
Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Goa, A. & N. Islands, Sikkim, D. & N. Haveli, Puducherry and Jammu & Kashmir.
Source: MOSPI, CRISIL Research
A majority of the Indian states with smaller state highway length (5,000 km or less) have not adopted the toll and
OMT model as of date, however, some state road authorities of key Indian states have awarded or invited bids for
toll / OMT projects. These states are Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Gujarat,
Tamil Nadu and Haryana. Together these states account for around 100,000 km i.e., more than 50 per cent of the
total state highway length in India. The list of respective state authority, which have awarded / invited bids for toll
and / or OMT projects in the past is provided below.
151
State
OMT / Toll
MPRDC
Madhya Pradesh
OMT
BSRDC
Bihar
OMT
KRDC
Karnataka
OMT
RSRDC
Rajasthan
Toll
RIDCOR
Rajasthan
Toll
HSRDC
Haryana
Toll
OBCC
Odisha
Toll
GSRICL
Gujarat
Toll
TNRDC
Tamil Nadu
Toll
MSRDC
Maharashtra
OMT / Toll
1. MPRDC: Madhya Pradesh State Road Development Corporation, KRDC: Karnataka Road Development Corporation Limited.
BSRDC: Bihar State Road & Bridges Development Corporation , MSRDC: Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation ,
RSRDC: Rajasthan State Road Development and Construc tion Corporation, HSRDC: Haryana State Road & Bridges
Development Corporation, OBCC: Odisha Bridge & Construction Corporation Limited, GSRICL: Gujarat Road and
Infrastructure Company Limited, TNRDC: Tamil nadu Road Development Company Limited and RIDCOR: R oad Infrastructure
Development Company of Rajasthan
Source: CRISIL Research
CRISIL Research assessed 10-11 key states that have witnessed relatively higher investments in state highway
projects i.e. Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Haryana,
Odisha, and Maharashtra.
Of these 11 states, the two states, namely Uttar Pradesh, and Delhi have not reported any focus on bidding for
OMT and tolling projects for their state highways based on their current plans. Any change in their plans for
considering OMT and / or tolling have not been accounted for in our outlook. Gujarat and Tamil Nadu have just
initiated invitation of bids for tolling projects. Consequently we have provided below our assessment of OMT and
toll collection opportunities from the aforementioned states. The assessment is based on detailed interactions with
relevant state authority officials as well as analysis of the publically available information.
152
around 2,510 km of road network on OMT basis over the next four years (i.e. during 2013-14 to 2017-18), including
the projects of all state authorities for which bids have already been invited in 2013-14. Karnataka is expected to
account for around 37 per cent of this additional length whereas Madhya Pradesh and Bihar are expected to
account for around 35 per cent and around 28 per cent, respectively. Assuming an average length of a state
authority OMT project to be 90-100 km, we expect bids for a total of 45-50 projects will be invited over the next
four years (i.e. during 2013-14 to 2017-18).
This would result in the total stretch under OMT model (for which bids will be invited) to almost doublefrom the
current around 2,790 km to around 5,300 km by 2017-18. In terms of the market opportunity in value terms, we
expect the OMT market to increase around 2.6 times from Rs 12.8 billion in 2013-14 (excluding the estimated cost
of 11 new projects invited for bidding by Madhya Pradesh) to Rs 32.9 billion by 2017-18. Market opportunity in
value terms indicates the estimated project cost. The total number of OMT projects (on bids invited basis) are
expected to increase from 34 projects (in 2013-14) to 55-60 projects in 2017-18.
OMT Market Opportunity from key states
km
Rs billion
55-60 projects
35.0
5,300
30.0
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
25.0
4,000
20.0
34 projects
3,500
32.9
2,790
15.0
3,000
2,500
2,000
10.0
5.0
1,500
12.8
1,000
500
2013-14
Estimated project cost (in Rs bn.)
2017-18
Length on OMT basis (in km)
1. Length & market potential of OMT for 2013 -14 and 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids were / are expected to
be invited by the key state authorities.
2. Estimated project cost for 2013-14 does not reflect the cost for 11 projects invited for bidding by Madhya Pradesh in 2013 14.
3. For calculating the estimated project cost (EPC) for a state authority project, past average EPC per km for that authority
has been used.
4. Market opportunity in value terms has been presented in terms of estimated project cost as provided by the authority at the
bidding stage. W e have assumed a 5 per cent increase in estimated project cost per year
5. OMT oppurtunity for 2017-18 includes oppurtunity from states of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
153
on OMT basis. Further, the state government has invited 11 projects amounting to 550 km of state highway
stretches for bidding in February 2014.
All above-mentioned state highway stretches were constructed on cash contracts basis (by utilising funds of
government or through loan assistance received from ADB). Therefore, operation and maintenance and tolling for
these stretches was the responsibility of the state authority.
The state has a total length of more than 6,000 km of state highway, which have been completed or are currently
under construction (with an expected completion date prior to 2017-18), on cash contracts basis. As per
discussions with the authority, CRISIL Research estimates that bids will be invited for operation and maintenance
of nearly around 15 per cent of these stretches (around 900 km) on OMT basis, over the next five years (i.e. during
2013-14 to 2017-18).
This would result in the total stretch under OMT model (for which bids will be invited) to increase from around
1,500 km currently (940 km invited in 2012-13 and 550 km invited in 2013-14) to around 2,390 km by 2017-18.
In terms of the market opportunity in value terms, we expect the OMT market to increase 2.8 times from the current
Rs 3.8 billion (Estimated project cost for 2013-14 does not reflect the cost for 11 projects invited for bidding by
Madhya Pradesh in 2013-14) to Rs 10.5 billion by 2017-18. Market opportunity in value terms indicates the
estimated project cost.
OMT Market Opportunity for Madhya Pradesh
km
Rs billion.
12
3,000
10
2,390
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,500
10.5
4
2
1,000
500
3.8
2013-14
Estimated project cost (in Rs bn.)
2017-18
Length on OMT basis (in km)
1. Length & market potential of OMT for 2013 -14 and 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids were / are expected to
be invited by the state authority.
2. For calculating the estimated project cost (EPC) for a state authority project, past average EPC per km for that authority
has been used.
3. Market opportunity in value terms has been presented in terms of estimated project cost as provided by the authority at the
bidding stage. W e have assumed a 5 per cent increase in estimated project cost per year
4. Estimated project cost for 2013-14 does not reflect the cost for 11 projects invited for bidding by Madhya Pradesh in 2013 14.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
154
km
12
1,500
10
~1,170
8
1,000
11
4
2
500
480
4.1
2013-14
Estimated project cost (in Rs bn.)
2017-18
Length on OMT basis (in km)
1. Length & market potential of OMT for 2013 -14 and 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids were / are expected to
be invited by the state authority.
2. For calculating the estimated project cost (EPC) for a state authority project, past average EPC per km for that authority
has been used.
3. Market opportunity in value terms has been presented in terms of estimated project cost as provided by the authority at the
bidding stage. W e have assumed a 5 per cent increase in estimated project cost per year
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
155
km
12
2,000
~1,750
10
1,500
8
11.3
1,000
820
4
2
500
4.9
2013-14
Estimated project cost (in Rs bn.)
2017-18
Length on OMT basis (in km)
1. Length & market potential of OMT for 2013 -14 and 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids were / are expected to
be invited by the state authority.
2. For calculating the estimated project cost (EPC) for a stat e authority project, past average EPC per km for that authority
has been used.
3. Market opportunity in value terms has been presented in terms of estimated project cost as provided by the authority at the
bidding stage. W e have assumed a 5 per cent increa se in estimated project cost per year
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
156
As of March 2014, the above-mentioned states had an estimated total length of around 5,350 km of state
highways, for which bids are invited for tolling. Rajasthan, Haryana and Maharashtra constituted the majority of the
length invited for tolling bids. The cumulative estimated annual potential collection for the tolled length, as shared
by the authority or as mentioned in the tender documents was around Rs 9.4 billion.
CRISIL Research estimates that bids will be invited for an additional 2,500-2,600 km of road network on tolling,
over the next five years (i.e. during 2013-14 to 2017-18). This would result in the total stretch under tolling (for
which bids will be invited) to increase 1.5 times from the current 5,350 km to around 7,900 km by 2017-18. The
number of tolling projects (on bids invited basis) are expected to increase from around 102 projects in 2013-14 to
140-145 projects in 2017-18.
In terms of market opportunity in value terms, we expect the toll market to increase 3.3 times from the current Rs
9.4 billion to Rs 19.7 billion by 2017-18. Market opportunity in value terms indicates the annual potential collection.
Toll Market Opportunity from key states
Rs Billion
km
140-145 projects
25.0
9,000
7,900
20.0
~102 projects
8,000
7,000
6,000
15.0
5,350
5,000
4,000
10.0
19.7
3,000
5.0
2,000
9.4
1,000
2013-14
2017-18
1. Tolled length for a single toll project has been taken as 50 km wherever length could not be sourced from primary /
secondary sources.
2. For calculating the annual potential collection (APC) for a state authority, past average APC per km for that authority wa s
used.
3. For KRDC, since annual potential collection for past was not available, past average annual potential collection per km of
Maharashtra and Rajasthan state authorities have been used for extrapolation of future APC.
4. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in annual potential collection per year
5. Total estimated toll length and APC in 2017 -18 is based on the projects for which bids are expected to be invited by key
state authorities.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
157
with the state level authority, the estimated annual potential collection for these 27 tolling projects is around Rs 1
billion.
CRISIL Research estimates that an additional 9-10 tolling projects may come up for bidding over the next five
years. These projects are expected to provide for an additional length of around 450 km for tolling over the next five
years (i.e. during 2013-14 to 2017-18), assuming an average length of 50 km per tolling project.
This would result in the total stretch under tolling (for which bids will be invited) to increase 1.3 times from the
current 1,350 km to around 1,800 km by 2017-18.
In terms of the market opportunity in value terms, we expect the toll market in Haryana to increase 1.7 times from
the current Rs 1 billion to Rs 1.7 billion by 2017-18. Market opportunity in value terms indicates the annual potential
collection of toll.
Toll Market Opportunity for Haryana
Rs billion.
km
1.8
2,000
1,800
1.6
1.4
1,500
1,350
1.2
1.0
1.7
0.8
1,000
0.6
1.0
500
0.4
0.2
-
2013-14
Annual potential collection (in Rs bn.)
2017-18
Length on Toll basis (in km)
1. Tolled length for a single project has been taken as 50 km as total length on tolling could not be sourced from primary /
secondary sources.
2. For calculating the annual potential collection (APC) for a state authority, past average APC per km for th at authority was
used.
3. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in annual potential collection per year
4. Total estimated toll length and APC in 2017 -18 is based on the projects for which bids are expected to be invited by the
state authority.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
158
tolling (for which bids will be invited) to increase 1.4 times from the current 2,190 km to around 3,160 km by 201718.
In terms of the market opportunity in value terms, we expect the toll market of Rajasthan (RIDCOR and RSRDC
combined) to increase 1.7 times from the current Rs 3.8 billion to Rs 6.5 billion by 2017-18. Market opportunity in
value terms indicates the annual potential collection of toll.
Toll Market Opportunity of Rajasthan
Rs billion.
km
7.0
3,500
3,160
6.0
5.0
3,000
2,500
2,190
6.5
4.0
3.0
2,000
1,500
2.0
1,000
3.3
1.0
500
2013-14
2017-18
1. For calculating the annual potential collection (APC) for a state authority, past average APC per km for that authority was used.
2. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in annual potential collection per year
3. Total estimated toll length and APC in 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids are expected to be invited by the state authorities.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
RIDCOR
RIDCOR is a 50:50 joint venture between IL&FS and the Government of Rajasthan. The authority is undertaking
development of around 1,600 km of state highway stretches in Rajasthan under three phases.
Phases wise lengths under RIDCOR
Phases
Length (in km )
Phase I
1,050
Phase II
260
Phase III
300
Total
~1,600
As of 2012-13, Phase I and some of the projects under Phase II were completed, amounting to around 1,140 km of
state highway length. As of 2012-13, the authority has invited bids for all completed projects under these two
phases for toll collection by a third party. The estimated annual potential toll collection for these projects, as shared
by the authority, is Rs 1.6-1.8 billion.
159
The authority is expected to complete all projects planned under Phase III by 2017-18 (around 300 km), whereas
pending projects under Phase II (around 180 km) are expected to get completed in the next 1-2 years. Post
completion, the company is expected to invite bids for tolling on these projects by a third party. These projects are
expected to provide for an additional length of around 480 km for tolling over the next five years (i.e. during 201314 to 2017-18).
This would result in the total stretch under tolling (for which bids will be invited) to increase 1.4 times from the
current 1,140 km to around 1,620 km by 2017-18.
In terms of the market opportunity in value terms, we expect the toll market by RIDCOR to double from the current
Rs 1.7 billion to Rs 3.4 billion by 2017-18. Market opportunity in value terms indicates the annual potential
collection of toll.
Toll Market Opportunity of RIDCOR
Rs billion.
km
4.0
1,700
1,620
3.5
1,500
3.0
1,300
1,140
2.5
3.4
1,100
2.0
900
1.5
1.0
700
1.7
500
0.5
300
0.0
100
2013-14
Annual potential collection (in Rs bn.)
2017-18
Length on Toll basis (in km)
1. For calculating the annual potential collection (APC) for a state authority, past average APC per km for that authority wa s
used.
2. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in annual potential collection per year
3. Total estimated toll length and APC in 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids are expected to be invited by the
state authority.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
RSRDC
As of March 2014, RSRDC has 1340 km of state highway stretches (around 25 projects) for which bids are invited
by the authority for tolling. The total estimated annual potential collection for these projects, as available from RFP
documents, is around Rs 2.13 billion.
CRISIL Research estimates that bids for another 7-9 projects (with a total length of 400-500 km) are expected to be
invited over the next four years. These are the only tolls available with the authority on stretches which have been
awarded to it, for development, operation and maintenance and tolling by the state government.
160
This would result in the total stretch under tolling (for which bids will be invited) to increase 1.3 times from the
current 1,340 km to around 1,790 km by 2017-18.
In terms of the market opportunity in value terms, we expect the toll market by RSRDC to increase 1.5 times from
the current Rs 2.1 billion to Rs 3.1 billion by 2017-18. Market opportunity in value terms indicates the annual
potential collection of toll.
km
3.5
1,900
1,790
3.0
1,700
1,500
2.5
3.1
1,340
1,300
2.0
1.5
1,100
2.1
900
700
1.0
500
0.5
300
0.0
100
2013-14
Annual potential collection (in Rs bn.)
2017-18
Length on Toll basis (in km)
1. For calculating the annual potential collection (APC) for a state authority, past average APC per km for that authority wa s
used.
2. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in annual potential collection per year
3. Total estimated toll length and APC in 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids are expected to be invited by the
state authority.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
161
km
7.0
1,700
6.0
1,450
6.5
5.0
1,500
1,300
1,200
1,100
4.0
900
3.0
4.0
700
2.0
500
1.0
300
0.0
100
2013-14
Annual potential collection (in Rs bn.)
2017-18
Length on Toll basis (in km)
1. Tolled length for a single project has been taken as 50 km as total length on tolling could not be sourced from primary /
secondary sources.
2. For calculating the annual potential collection (APC) for a state authority, past average APC per km for that authority wa s
used.
3. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in annual potential collection per year
4. Total estimated toll length and APC in 2017-18 is based on the projects for which bids are expected to be invited by the
state authority.
Source: CRISIL Research Estimates
162
km
3.5
1,400
3.0
1,150
2.5
3.0
1,200
1,000
2.0
800
1.5
600
1.0
400
0.5
0.0
200
50
0.1
2013-14
Annual potential collection (in Rs bn.)
2017-18
Length on Toll basis (in km)
1. Tolled length for a single project has been taken as 50 km as total length on tolling could not be sourced from primary /
secondary sources.
2. For calculating the annual potential collection (APC) for a state authority, past average APC per km for that authority was
used.
3. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in annual potential collection per year
4. Total estimated toll length and APC in 2017 -18 is based on the projects for which bids are expected to be invited by the
state authority.
5. For KRDC, since annual potential collection for past was not available, past average annual potential collection per km of
Maharashtra and Rajasthan state authorities have been u sed for extrapolation of future APC.
163
km
0.5
400
0.4
350
350
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
300
300
0.3
250
0.2
0.2
200
0.1
150
0.1
0.0
100
2013-14
Annual potential collection (in Rs bn.)
2017-18
Length on Toll basis (in km)
1. Tolled length for a single project has been taken as 50 km as total length on tolling could not be sourced from primary /
secondary sources.
2. For calculating the annual potential collection (APC) for a state authority, past average APC p er km for that authority was
used.
3. We have assumed a 5 per cent increase in annual potential collection per year
4. Total estimated toll length and APC in 2017 -18 is based on the projects for which bids are expected to be invited by the
state authority.
164
3,451
2,736
3,000
2,000
1,387
825
1,000
1
18
279
455
66
1,116
1,109
643
90
Note: The BOT (Toll) projects considered above are awarded by NHAI and does not include projects awarded by MORTH
As of date, around 8900 km of national highways have been constructed under BOT (Toll) under the NHDP
phases, constituting 40 per cent of the total national highways length completed till date.
165
166
Similarly in case of Gammon Infrastructure Projects Limited, financial flexibility has reduced substantially due to
deterioration in gearing levels with increased funding requirement for BOT projects. Company incurred a loss of Rs
220 million in 2011-12 on account of higher interest and increased borrowings.
IRB too follows suit, where funding requirements for BOT projects have kept its gearing levels elevated in 2012-13.
Net profit margins too have been under pressure and witnessed an 80 basis point drop year on year in 2012-13.
Com panies
Gearing ratio
2011-12
2012-13
2011-12
2012-13
IVRCL
1.2
1.3
0.3
-2.8
HCC
9.1
14
-7.2
-6.2
IRB
2.4
2.7
15.8
15
4.6
4.9
-5.2
3.6
In 2013, Reliance Infrastructure Limited has invited tenders on minimum revenue guarantee model for its
various toll plazas.
Lanco Infra has also in the past invited projects for tolling.
167
Going ahead, we expect a number of BOT players to sell their assets on account of the financial crunch being
faced by them and impact of other external factors making toll revenue targets unattainable. Some contractors and
developers are already exploring the options of divesting their stakes in the completed projects to release their
blocked capital and redeploy them for other new projects. Many BOT-developers like IVRCL, GMR, Madhucon, and
Nagarjuna are planning to and are in process to divest stake in their operational road assets. This is expected to
help improve their financial position over the next few years.
An indicative list of BOT players and projects being planned to be financially exited / diluted has been provided
below:
Companies
Comments
The company has 10 road BOT (Toll) projects under its portfolio, of which 3 projects are completed, 3
are under implementation and nearing completion, while the remaining 4 are still in a nascent stage
IVRCL
It has sold three road BOT projects amounting to 155 km in Tamil Nadu to TRIL Roads Pvt Ltd, a unit
of Tata Group
IVRCL has further plans to divest in another three road BOT projects
The company has 5 BOT (Toll) projects under its portfolio, of which 3 projects are completed,
remaining 2 projects are under implementation
Madhucon Projects
The company is planning to divest its stake in 4 completed BOT road projects (include a national
highway from Bharatpur to Mahua in Rajasthan and three other national highways in Tamil Nadu)
Nagarjuna
Construction Company
(NCC)
NCC has 3 BOT (Toll) projects under its portfolio, all of which are completed and under operation
The company is planning to sell two of its toll projects located in the states of Uttar Pradesh and
Karnataka
GMR Infrastructure is planning to raise money through the sale of its road assets
Lanco Infratech planning to sell stake in roads BOT projects
Others
SBI and Australia's Macquarie bought a controlling stake of 74 per cent in GMR Infra's Jadcherla
Expressways in February 2013
Navyuga Roads raised Rs.550 crores from Piramal Enterprise to meet additional equity requirement
for its road projects in April 2013
L&T also plans to divest 20 per cent stake in L&T Infrastructure Development Projects
Companies like HCC, GVK, Gayatri Projects and many others are all believed to be debt-laden, and
hence keen to reduce their debt level by either diluting stake or selling the asset outright
Source: Industry
Hence based on the aforementioned announced plans of BOT players, around 1,800-2,000 km of BOT project
length is expected to be divested over the next few years. Also, another 40-45 per cent of completed BOT projects
are expected to opt for financial exit / dilution in stake given their current financial conditions (based on our
interactions with leading BOT players). It is understood that the new project owners would primarily be financial
investors hence resulting in a potential opportunity for OMT players.
This will potentially result in creating an opportunity of 4,360 km or more for OMT players subject to:
168
Announced and expected BOT projects sales / equity dilution to get implemented.
The new project owners / buyers will primarily be financial investors with minimal project operation
experience (hence outsourcing the stretches on OMT basis).
3,500
3,000
2,500
4,360
2,000
1,500
1,000
2,560
1,800
500
0
Potential opportunity from
announced plans
Potential opportunity
assuming @ 40% of rest
BOT market
Total potential
opportunity for OMT by
2017 -18
Hence around 4,360 km of BOT projects are expected to be financially divested by their current operators resulting
in a sizeable opportunity for OMT players by the new operators.
Around 1,800 km of BOT projects will be exited based on current announced plans of BOT players (IVRCL,
Nagarjuna Construction Co., Madhucon, GMR, and Lanco).
2,560 km of BOT projects that are currently under operation are also expected to be divested based on our
interactions with key market participants (BOT players).
CRISIL Research expects market for toll collection business from these financially divested BOT projects to be
slim. The negligible market for Toll Collection from BOT (Toll) developers is a result of the inherent features of the
toll collection contract itself which are:
Shorter duration of contracts (typically of around 12 months, which poses uncertainty to the developer).
In terms of the market in value terms, we expect the market of around Rs 25 billion by 2017-18. Market in value
terms indicates the project cost.
169
10
0
Potential opportunity from
announced plans
Potential opportunity
assuming @ 40% of rest
BOT market
170
Total potential
opportunity for OMT by
2017
171
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