EE5712 Power System Reliability

:: Introduction
Panida Jirutitijaroen

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EE5712 Power System Reliability

About Me
Panida Jirutitijaroen.
Bangkok, Thailand.
Research Area:
Reliability Theory Applied to Power Systems.
Optimization Techniques Applied to Power Systems.

http://www.ece.nus.edu.sg/stfpage/elejp/
Email: elejp@nus.edu.sg
Office: E2-03-19

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EE5712 Power System Reliability

Outline

About this class

Introduction to reliability
Basic steps in system reliability analysis
Introduction to power system reliability
Power system reliability indexes and criterion

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EE5712 Power System Reliability

Overview
Assessment
Scope
Objective

ABOUT THIS CLASS

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Overview
Lecture: Friday 6-9 PM @ E4-04-05.
From August 27th onwards, well meet at PC cluster 3
@ E2-03-06.

15-min break 7-7:15 PM.

Consultation hours on Tuesdays 5:30-6:30 PM.
3 time slot, 20 mins each.
Make appointment using IVLE.

Homework will be posted before class on IVLE.

Lecture notes will be posted after class on IVLE.
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Assessment
Three exams.
Exam1 20%: 25/09 (Saturday)
Exam2 20%: 06/11 (Saturday)
Final 40%: 01/12

Homework 20%, your own original work.

Plagiarism will be taken very seriously.
Homework to be submitted before class starts.
Homework submitted after the class starts will not be
graded.

See tentative syllabus.

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Expectation

Attend lecture.
Do homework.
And,..
Please be considerate to other classmates and
lecturer by coming to the class on time.
Lecture will start at 6PM.

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EE5712 Power System Reliability

Scope
Power System Reliability
Electric power
System
Reliability

Reliability theory applied to power systems

Analytical and simulation tools to conduct
reliability analysis

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Road Map

Introduction to power system reliability (1 lec)

Probability theory and Reliability theory (2 lec)
Stochastic process (1 lec)
Analytical methods for reliability analysis (1 lec)
Frequency balance technique (1 lec)
Simulation methods (1 lec)
Single-area reliability analysis (2 lec)
Composite system and multi-area reliability (2 lec)
Distribution system reliability analysis (1 lec)

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EE5712 Power System Reliability

Theory

Application

Objectives
What you will learn from this class
1. Understand basic reliability concepts and
reliability measures
2. Be able to perform reliability analysis of a
small system using analytical tools.
3. Be able to perform reliability analysis of a
large system using simulation tools.

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What is reliability?
What causes a system to fail?
How to model uncertainties?

INTRODUCTION TO RELIABILITY

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Example 1: You Are The Weakest

Link!?!?

"A chain is only as strong as its weakest link

Does this mean that system reliability is
determined by the least reliable component in
the system?
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Example 2: Identical Transmission

Lines
Line 1

Line 1

Load

Load

Line 2

System B

System A

Which system is more reliable?

Which system is likely to fail more than
another ?
Next question is how much?
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Example 3: Non-Identical Transmission

Lines
Line 1

Line 1

Load

Load

Line 2

System B

System A

Which system is more reliable?

Depend on t-line capability to deliver load,
generation capacity, load level, how each line
perform
How to quantify line performance?
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Example 4: Identical Generators

100

100

Load 100 MW

System A

100

100

100

Load 100 MW

System B

100

Load 100 MW

System C

Which system is more reliable?

Which system is more cost-effective?

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Example 5: Non-Identical Generators

100

100

Load 150 MW

System A

100

150

150

Load 150 MW

System B

300

Load 150 MW

System C

Which system is more reliable?

Depend on how each generator perform
How to quantify generator performance?

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What Is Reliability?
Ability of a component/system to perform its
intended function
Within a specified period of time
Under stated condition
Qualitative sense in terms of performance
function, time, and surrounding conditions
How to quantify reliability?

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Reliability
Relate to the absence of failures, that due to
random phenomenon
Define numerically as average or mean value
Can be treated as a parameter
Can be traded off with other parameters such
as cost

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What causes a system to fail?

Human factors
System design
Operation condition
Maintenance procedure
Deterioration (function of time)
Random failures
Uncertainties

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How to model Uncertainty?

Probability of failure
Chance that a component will fail
Probabilistic value with no unit
May be difficult to interpret

Frequency of failure
In terms of number of failure within specified time
Easier to predict from history
Express in per hour, per day, per year

We will discover later on in this course how to

relate frequency of failure to probability of failure
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Example 5: Transmission lines

100 MW

G
100 MW

100 MW

Load
100 MW

Load
100 MW

System B

System A

Given that each system has the following level of

reliability
System

Failure Probability

Cost (million SGD)

0.009

70

0.01

25

Which system is more reliable?

Which system is more cost-effective?
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Example 5: Identical Generators

100

100

100

100

Load 100 MW

Load 100 MW

System A

100

Load 100 MW

System B

If each system has the

following level of
reliability and cost
Which system is more
reliable?
Which system is more
cost-effective?
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100

System C

System

Failure
Probability

Cost
(million SGD)

0.001

300

0.01

200

0.1

100

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Motivations for Quantitative Reliability

To evaluate system performance

System design purpose
Trade-off reliability with cost
Increasing complexity of systems
Competitiveness
Establish standard in operation procedure

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Objective of the analysis

Component modeling
System modeling
Performance function
Reliability Evaluation

BASIC STEPS IN SYSTEM RELIABILITY

ANALYSIS
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Objective
Interest to know the likelihood that a component
or a system will fail.
Time-to-failure distribution of a
component/system.

Helps to predict the failure probability at any

point in time
For a complex system, need to estimate reliability
index for design and operation purposes.
Need to start with the component modeling
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Component Modeling
Identify components in the system
Describe state of each component
For example, a generator has two states, up or
down.

In terms of probability distribution

For example, a generator fails with probability of
failure = 0.01.

Stochastic process model

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Observation of A Component
Z(t)

2
1
0

Z(t)

Time

2
1
0
Time
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System Modeling
System configuration/topology
How each component interact

C1

C1

C1

C2

C8

C2

C6

C3

C9

C5

C11

C7

C10

C4

C12

C2

Need to know how each device causes a system to fail!

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Performance Function
To evaluate system reliability
Recall,
Ability of a system to perform its
intended function
Need to define intended function

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Reliability Evaluation
Each component described by random variables
For example, a generator has 3 capacity output, 100
MW with 0.85 probability, 50 MW with 0.14
probability, 0 MW with 0.01 probability

System states constructed from possible

combinations of component states
Evaluate performance function of each system
state
Calculate reliability index
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Functional Zones in Power Systems

Objective of Reliability Analysis
Levels of Reliability Analysis
Power System Reliability Indexes

INTRODUCTION TO POWER
SYSTEMS
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Functional Zones of Power Systems

Generation system
Generators
Load

Transmission system
High voltage transmission lines

Distribution system
Low voltage transmission lines
End users
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Main Components of a Power System

Generation (11 36 KV)
Transmission and distribution (110 765 KV)
Load (0.12 138 KV)
Industrial customer (23 138 KV)
Commercial customer (4.16 34.5 KV)
Residential customer (120 240 V)

33

Generation Capacity in Singapore

34

Transmission and Distribution

Interconnected network
Transformers used to step up voltages from generation
units to transmission-line.
High voltage used when transmitting power to lower I2R
loss for better efficiency.
Distribution systems can provide power at different voltage
levels for different loads.

Transmission network

Distribution network
35

North American Electric Power Connections

http://www.nerc.com/regional/NERC_Interconnections_color.jpg
36

Singapore Power Grid

400 kV, 230 kV, and 66 kV
Full underground cable
Four 230 kV zones
connected by meshed
400 kV
Zone

Maximum Import capacity (MW)

1275

1275

1275

1275
37

Load
Moment-to-moment
fluctuations
Hour-to-hour changes
Daily
Weekly
Seasonal

Base load counts for

less than a half of peak
load.

Typical weekly load

curve, data from ERCOT
4

x 10

ERCOT Weekly Load Curve from Aug. 19th to Aug. 22, 2006

Load (MW)

Varies with time

Sun.

Mon.
Day

Tue.

Wed.

38

Singapore Electric Demand

Peak demand in 2007 is 5946 MW.

Electricity demand in 2007 is 41134 GWh.

39

Operational Conditions
Secure operation
Component physical limit.
How to operate the system securely?

Economic operation
Cost of operation differs by type of fuel.
How to operate the system with least cost?

Reliable operation
Power Quality, interruptions,
brownout and blackout
How to operate the system reliably?
40

Uncertainties in Power Systems

Generation
Generating units with failure and repair rates
Generating capacity associated with probability

Transmission line capacity

Transmission line with failure and repair rates
Transmission line capacity associated with probability

System load
Vary with time
Construct load distribution from history
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Objective of Reliability Analysis

The function of power system is to serve load.
We want to have,
Generation > Load
For most of the time,
With least cost.

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Three Areas of Reliability Analysis

1. Generating capacity reliability
Concern with generation adequacy

2. Composite system reliability

Consider both generation and transmission lines

3. Distribution system reliability

Local network connected to end-users

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Generating Capacity Reliability

1. Single-area reliability analysis
All generators and loads are connected to a
single bus

2. Multi-area reliability analysis

Generators and loads within area are connected
to a single bus
Consider tie-lines between areas
Limitation of intra-area transmission are included
when determining inter-area transmission
capability
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Single Area Reliability Analysis

Interest to find out the ability of existing
generation to serve load
Single bus analysis
Generators and loads are within the same bus
Each generators has their own performance
indexes

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Composite System Reliability

Concern with
generation and
transmission capability
adequacy
High-voltage
transmission lines
May include highvoltage transformers,
circuit breakers
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http://www.powerworld.com/images/7-bus%20Oneline.jpg

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Multi-Area Reliability Analysis

Interest to find out if area
generation or tie-line
capability are adequate to
serve load
Consider thousands of
nodes then simplify the
system to small workable
nodes (areas)
Generator and load from
different nodes within the
same area are grouped into
one.
Tie-line capability between
areas
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Distribution System Reliability

Interest to find out the
reliability level at load
point
Network configuration/
topology
Analysis takes into
account reliability of the
following low-voltage
components,
Transformers
Circuit breakers
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http://www.tpub.com/content/construction/14027/css/14027_63.htm

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Reliability indexes
Reliability criterion

POWER SYSTEMS RELIABILITY

INDEXES AND CRITERION
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Power Systems Reliability Indexes

Deterministic indexes
Do not take into account the uncertainties that
affect reliability
Simple calculation
Require less data

Probabilistic indexes
Reflect uncertainties in the system
Require failure statistics of the devices
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Deterministic Indexes
Operating reserve margin
Excess generation capacity in case of emergency

Percentage reserve
Amount of reserve capacity as a percentage of the
total peak load

Reserve margin as the largest unit online

Amount of reserve equals to the capacity of the
largest unit online
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Probabilistic Indexes
Loss of load probability
Probability that generation will not meet demand
in a year
Commonly shown as number of hours/days. (by
multiply LOLP by number of hours/days in a year)

Loss of load frequency

How often does the system fail in a year

Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS) or

Expected Unserved Energy (EUE)
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Why need reliability criterion?

Develop standardized quantity
Planning and Operation purposes
To avoid catastrophic failures

Design problems

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Power Systems Reliability Criterion

Deterministic criteria
N-m contingency analysis
System with N components should be able to
serve peak load when loss m components
Sometimes called security analysis

Probabilistic criteria
Loss of load expectation, for example, 1 day in 10
years
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Cost-Benefit Analysis
High reliability achieved with high cost
Is it worthwhile to have high reliability?

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http://www.eppo.go.th/power/ERI-study-E/ERI-EOCS-1-E.html
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Summary
We know what reliability is
We know a bit about power system reliability
We need to know
Probability theory
Reliability theory
Random processes

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Reading Materials
Review basic probability theory
Random variables
Probability rules (addition, multiplication,
Conditional probability
Probability distribution functions

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