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Table 1. Mean abundances, P, of motile L. salmonis on juvenile pink salmon and estimated parasite-induced host mortality, M (with upper and lower
bounds of the 95% credible interval in parentheses), for exposed populations during infestations.
River
Ahta
Kakweiken
Viner
Wakeman
Kingcome
Ahnuhati
Lull
2002
P
3.4
3.4
4.0
4.0
4.0
2.6
2.6
2003
M
95.21
95.21
97.20
97.20
97.20
90.21
90.21
(79.07,
(79.07,
(84.12,
(84.12,
(84.12,
(69.76,
(69.76,
P
98.95)
98.95)
99.53)
99.53)
99.53)
96.93)
96.93)
1.0
1.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
0.7
0.7
2004*
M
59.09
59.09
86.00
86.00
86.00
46.51
46.51
(36.87,
(36.87,
(63.65,
(63.65,
(63.65,
(27.53,
(27.53,
P
73.82)
73.82)
94.76)
94.76)
94.76)
60.86)
60.86)
2005
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.3
1.9
1.9
2006
M
90.21
90.21
87.20
87.20
87.20
81.70
81.70
(69.76,
(69.76,
(65.29,
(65.29,
(65.29,
(58.27,
(58.27,
P
96.93)
96.93)
95.41)
95.41)
95.41)
92.16)
92.16)
0.4
0.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
0.3
0.3
M
30.06
30.06
71.39
71.39
71.39
23.52
23.52
(16.81,
(16.81,
(47.48,
(47.48,
(47.48,
(12.89,
(12.89,
41.49)
41.49)
84.68)
84.68)
84.68)
33.10)
33.10)
years. The time to reach sufficient temporal replication to support hierarchical mixed-effects modeling, say 10 generations (which equals 20 years),
greatly exceeds the predicted time to extinction.
That is, there is a major risk associated with
waiting for large data sets to accumulate before
implementing conservation policy. Industrial aquaculture is rapidly expanding to new species,
regions, and habitats (31), which can create
parasite outbreaks that contribute to the decline
of ocean fisheries and ecosystems.
References and Notes
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
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8.
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10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
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*These data correspond to the salmon cohort responding to the fallow treatment in 2003.
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Species richness
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Habitat split (%)
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1
Sir William Dunn School of Pathology, University of Oxford,
South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3RE, UK. 2Institute of Clinical
Molecular Biology and Tumour Genetics, Gesellschaft fuer
Strahlung Forschung (GSF)-Research Centre of Environment
and Health, Munich Center for Integrated Protein Science
(CiPSM), Marchioninistrasse 25, 81377 Munich, Germany.
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1777