ASIGNATURA: DIRECCION EMPRESARIAL

Lic. Carlos Sanchez Umanzor

INTEGRANTES:
EDGAR ROLANDO MATUTE
LUIS CARLOS TURCIOS
MARVIN GEOVANY FLORES
MERY SANDRA SANDOVAL
OSCAR ROLANDO MATAMOROS

ANEXO 5
MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORF
PRONOSTICO DE FLUJO DE CAJA, FRANKFURT
(EXPRESADO EN MILES DE DM)

AO
SUPOSICIONES
Numero de habitaciones
Das en el ao
Ocupacin promedio
Tarifa promedio por habitacin (DM)
Cambio porcentual diario promedio
Gastos generales, de ventas y administrativos
Honorarios de la oficina central de Marriott
Tipo Impositivo
Pago de alquiler fijo anual
Alquiler complementario al Buren
Factor de ajuste por riesgo de pas
Inversin de capital (DM)
INGRESOS
Habitaciones
Alimentacin y bebidas
Otros
qw
UTILIDADES POR DEPARTAMENTO

1989
950
365
60%
178
-30%
3%
60%
10,000
2.0%
0.99
28800

37,033
10,255
9,686
56,974

Habitaciones
Alimentacin y bebidas
Otros
Utilidades Departamentales Totales

25,553
1,128
2,228
28,909

GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS
Gastos generales, de ventas y administrativos
Oficina central de Marriott
Otros gastos totales
Ganancias antes de intereses, alquileres e impuestos

17,092
1,709
18,801
10,108

Gastos de impuestos
Ganancias antes de intereses, alquileres y despues de impuestos

6,065
4,043

Depreciacin
Gastos de capital

1,400
1,250

Utilidad interna neta despues de impuestos o flujo de caja neto

antes de gastos de alquiler

4,193

GASTOS DE ALQUILER
Alquiler mnimo
Alquiler mnimo despues de impuestos
Alquiler complementario
Alquiler complementario despues de impuestos

10,000
4,000
1,139
456

CUENTA
11223125
11223150
11213300
11223035
11223114

1989
Tasas

65.0%
18.0%
17.0%
100.0%

1990

1990
Tasas

1991

1991
Tasas

1992

1993

1994

64%
194.73
9.4%
30%

67%
202.52
4.0%
30%

67%
210.62
4.0%
30%

67%
219.05
4.0%
30%

67%
227.81
4.0%
30%

2.0%

2.0%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

48,932
9,786
6,524
65,243

50,890
10,178
6,785
67,853

52,925
10,585
7,057
70,567

43,215
9,878
8,643
61,736

70.0%
16.0%
14.0%
100.0%

47,050
9,410
6,273
62,733

75.0%
15.0%
10.0%
100.0%

69.0%
11.0%
23.0%
50.7%

31,547
1,284
2,074
34,905

73.0%
13.0%
24.0%
56.5%

37,170
1,553
1,506
40,229

79.0%
16.5%
24.0%
64.1%

38,657
1,615
1,566
41,838

40,203
1,680
1,629
43,512

41,811
1,747
1,694
45,252

30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
17.7%

18,521
1,852
20,373
14,532

30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
23.5%

18,820
1,882
20,702
19,527

30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
31.1%

19,573
1,957
21,530
20,308

20,356
2,036
22,391
21,120

21,170
2,117
23,287
21,965

60.0%
7.1%

8,719
5,813

60.0%
9.4%

11,716
7,811

60.0%
12.5%

12,185
8,123

12,672
8,448

13,179
8,786

2.5%
2.2%

1800
1700

2.9%
2.8%

1700
1800

2.7%
2.9%

1700
1900

2200
2200

2100
2000

7,923

8,448

8,886

10,000
4,000
1,631
652

10,000
4,000
1,696
679

10,000
4,000
1,764
706

5,913

17.6%
7.0%
2.0%
0.8%

10,000
4,000
1,235
494

7,711

16.2%
6.5%
2.0%
0.8%

10,000
4,000
1,255
502

15.9%
6.4%
2.0%
0.8%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

67%
236.92
4.0%
30%

67%
244.03
3.0%
30%

67%
251.35
3.0%
30%

67%
258.89
3.0%
30%

67%
266.66
3.0%
30%

67%
274.66
3.0%
30%

67%
282.90
3.0%
30%

67%
291.38
3.0%
30%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

55,042
11,008
7,339
73,389

56,693
11,339
7,559
75,591

58,394
11,679
7,786
77,859

60,146
12,029
8,019
80,195

61,950
12,390
8,260
82,600

63,809
12,762
8,508
85,078

65,723
13,145
8,763
87,631

67,695
13,539
9,026
90,260

43,484
1,817
1,762
47,062

44,788
1,871
1,815
48,474

46,132
1,927
1,869
49,928

47,516
1,985
1,925
51,426

48,941
2,045
1,983
52,969

50,409
2,106
2,042
54,558

51,922
2,169
2,104
56,195

53,479
2,234
2,167
57,881

22,017
2,202
24,218
22,844

22,677
2,268
24,945
23,529

23,358
2,336
25,693
24,235

24,058
2,406
26,464
24,962

24,780
2,478
27,258
25,711

25,524
2,552
28,076
26,482

26,289
2,629
28,918
27,277

27,078
2,708
29,786
28,095

13,706
9,138

14,117
9,412

14,541
9,694

14,977
9,985

15,427
10,284

15,889
10,593

16,366
10,911

16,857
11,238

1950
2000

1930
2000

1920
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

9,088

9,342

9,614

9,885

10,184

10,493

10,811

11,138

10,000
4,000
2,569
1,027

10,000
4,000
2,646
1,058

10,000
4,000
2,725
1,090

10,000
4,000
2,807
1,123

10,000
4,000
2,891
1,156

10,000
4,000
2,978
1,191

10,000
4,000
3,067
1,227

10,000
4,000
3,159
1,264

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

67%
300.12
3.0%
30%

67%
309.13
3.0%
30%

67%
318.40
3.0%
30%

67%
327.95
3.0%
30%

67%
337.79
3.0%
30%

67%
347.93
3.0%
30%

67%
358.36
3.0%
30%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

69,726
13,945
9,297
92,967

71,818
14,364
9,575
95,756

73,972
14,794
9,863
98,629

76,191
15,238
10,159
101,588

78,477
15,695
10,463
104,636

80,831
16,166
10,777
107,775

83,256
16,651
11,101
111,008

55,084
2,301
2,232
59,617

56,736
2,370
2,299
61,406

58,438
2,442
2,368
63,248

60,192
2,515
2,439
65,145

61,997
2,590
2,512
67,100

63,857
2,668
2,587
69,113

65,773
2,748
2,665
71,186

27,890
2,789
30,679
28,938

28,727
2,873
31,600
29,806

29,589
2,959
32,548
30,700

30,476
3,048
33,524
31,621

31,391
3,139
34,530
32,570

32,332
3,233
35,566
33,547

33,302
3,330
36,633
34,553

17,363
11,575

17,884
11,922

18,420
12,280

18,973
12,648

19,542
13,028

20,128
13,419

20,732
13,821

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

11,475

11,822

12,180

12,548

12,928

13,319

13,721

10,000
4,000
3,254
1,302

10,000
4,000
3,351
1,341

10,000
4,000
3,452
1,381

10,000
4,000
3,556
1,422

10,000
4,000
3,662
1,465

10,000
4,000
3,772
1,509

10,000
4,000
3,885
1,554

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

67%
369.12
3.0%
30%

67%
380.19
3.0%
30%

67%
391.59
3.0%
30%

67%
403.34
3.0%
30%

67%
415.44
3.0%
30%

67%
427.91
3.0%
30%

67%
440.74
3.0%
30%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

85,754
17,151
11,434
114,338

88,326
17,665
11,777
117,768

90,976
18,195
12,130
121,301

93,706
18,741
12,494
124,940

96,517
19,303
12,869
128,689

99,412
19,882
13,255
132,549

102,395
20,479
13,652
136,526

67,746
2,831
2,745
73,322

69,778
2,915
2,827
75,521

71,872
3,003
2,912
77,787

74,028
3,093
2,999
80,120

76,249
3,186
3,089
82,524

78,536
3,281
3,182
85,000

80,892
3,380
3,278
87,550

34,301
3,430
37,732
35,590

35,331
3,533
38,864
36,658

36,390
3,639
40,029
37,757

37,482
3,748
41,230
38,890

38,607
3,861
42,467
40,057

39,765
3,976
43,741
41,258

40,958
4,096
45,054
42,496

21,354
14,236

21,995
14,663

22,654
15,103

23,334
15,556

24,034
16,023

24,755
16,503

25,498
16,998

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

1900
2000

14,136

14,563

15,003

15,456

15,923

16,403

16,898

10,000
4,000
4,002
1,601

10,000
4,000
4,122
1,649

10,000
4,000
4,246
1,698

10,000
4,000
4,373
1,749

10,000
4,000
4,504
1,802

10,000
4,000
4,639
1,856

10,000
4,000
4,778
1,911

2017

2018

67%
453.97
3.0%
30%

67%
467.58
3.0%
30%

3.5%

3.5%

105,466
21,093
14,062
140,622

108,630
21,726
14,484
144,840

AO
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

Alquiler
complementario
despues de
impuestos
456
494
502
652
679
706
1027
1058
1090
1123
1156
1191
1227
1264
1302
1341
1381
1422
1465
1509

83,319
3,481
3,376
90,176

85,819
3,586
3,477
92,882

42,186
4,219
46,405
43,771

43,452
4,345
47,797
45,084

26,263
17,508

27,051
18,034

1900
2000

1900
2000

17,408

17,934

10,000
4,000
4,922
1,969

10,000
4,000
5,069
2,028

2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

1554
1601
1649
1698
1749
1802
1856
1911
1969
2028

ANEXO 6
MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORF
PRONOSTICO DEL FLUJO DE CAJA, DUSSELDORF
(EN MILES DE DM)

AO
SUPOSICIONES
Numero de habitaciones
Das en el ao
Ocupacin promedio
Tarifa promedio por habitacin (DM)
Cambio porcentual diario promedio
Gastos generales, de ventas y administrativos
Honorarios de la oficina central de Marriott
Tipo Impositivo
Pago de alquiler fijo anual
Factor de ajuste por riesgo de pas
INGRESOS
Habitaciones
Alimentacin y bebidas
Otros
Ingreso total

1989
200
365
65%
130
-30%
3%
60%
1,000
0.99

6,169
4,598
561
11,328

UTILIDADES DEPARTAMENTALES
Habitaciones
Alimentacin y bebidas
Otros
Total de Utilidades Departamentales

3,886
460
90
4,436

GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS
Ventas, generales y administrativos
Honorarios de oficina central de Marriott
Total otros gastos
Ingreso antes de gastos de alquiler, intereses e impuestos

3,398
340
3,738
698

Gastos de impuestos
Ingreso antes de gastos de alquiler e intereses y despues de gasto

419
279

Depreciacin
Gastos de capital

320
440

Utilidad interna neta despues de impuestos o flujo de caja neto

antes de gastos de alquiler

159.17

Alquiler de terreno
Alquiler de terreno despues de impuestos
Refugio tributario para el alquiler del terreno
FLUJO NETO

1,000
400
600

Tasas

1990

Tasas

67%
134.55
3.5%
30%

1991

Tasas

68%
139.26
3.5%
30%

1992

1993

1994

68%
143.44
3.0%
30%

68%
147.74
3.0%
30%

68%
151.43
2.5%
30%

54.5%
40.6%
5.0%
100.0%

6,581
4,618
346
11,545

57.0%
40.0%
3.0%
100.0%

6,913
4,378
230
11,521

60.0%
38.0%
2.0%
100.0%

7,120
4,509
237
11,867

7,334
4,645
244
12,223

7,517
4,761
250
12,528

63.0%
10.0%
16.0%
39.2%

4,212
531
59
4,802

64.0%
11.5%
17.1%
41.6%

4,424
503
41
4,968

65.0%
11.5%
17.8%
43.1%

4,628
518
42
5,188

4,767
534
43
5,344

4,886
547
45
5,478

30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
6.2%

3,464
346
3,810
992

30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
8.6%

3,456
346
3,802
1,166

30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
10.1%

3,560
356
3,916
1,272

3,667
367
4,033
1,311

3,758
376
4,134
1,343

60.0%
2.5%

595
397

60.0%
3.4%

700
466

60.0%
4.0%

763
509

786
524

806
537

2.8%
3.9%

360
530

3.1%
4.6%

470
550

4.1%
4.8%

520
580

530
580

530
580

449

474

487

227

386

8.8%
3.5%

1,000
400
600

8.7%
3.5%

1,000
400
600

8.7%
3.5%

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

68%
155.22
2.5%
30%

68%
159.10
2.5%
30%

68%
162.28
2.0%
30%

68%
165.53
2.0%
30%

68%
168.84
2.0%
30%

68%
171.37
1.5%
30%

68%
173.94
1.5%
30%

68%
176.55
1.5%
30%

7,705
4,880
256
12,841

7,898
5,002
263
13,162

8,056
5,102
268
13,426

8,217
5,204
273
13,694

8,381
5,308
279
13,968

8,507
5,388
283
14,178

8,634
5,469
287
14,390

8,764
5,551
292
14,606

5,008
561
46
5,615

5,134
575
47
5,755

5,236
586
48
5,870

5,341
598
49
5,988

5,448
610
50
6,107

5,529
619
50
6,199

5,612
628
51
6,292

5,697
638
52
6,386

3,852
385
4,238
1,377

3,949
395
4,344
1,411

4,028
403
4,430
1,440

4,108
411
4,519
1,468

4,190
419
4,609
1,498

4,253
425
4,679
1,520

4,317
432
4,749
1,543

4,382
438
4,820
1,566

826
551

847
565

864
576

881
587

899
599

912
608

926
617

940
627

530
580

530
580

530
580

530
580

530
580

530
580

530
580

530
580

501

515

526

537

549

558

567

577

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

68%
178.32
1.0%
30%

68%
180.10
1.0%
30%

68%
181.90
1.0%
30%

68%
183.72
1.0%
30%

68%
185.56
1.0%
30%

68%
187.41
1.0%
30%

8,852
5,606
294
14,752

8,940
5,662
297
14,900

9,030
5,719
300
15,049

9,120
5,776
303
15,199

9,211
5,834
306
15,351

9,303
5,892
310
15,505

5,754
644
52
6,450

5,811
651
53
6,515

5,869
657
54
6,580

5,928
664
54
6,646

5,987
670
55
6,712

6,047
677
55
6,779

4,426
443
4,868
1,582

4,470
447
4,917
1,598

4,515
451
4,966
1,614

4,560
456
5,016
1,630

4,605
461
5,066
1,646

4,651
465
5,117
1,663

949
633

959
639

968
645

978
652

988
658

998
665

530
580

530
580

530
580

530
580

530
580

530
580

583

589

595

602

608

615

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

1,000
400
600

ANEXO 7
MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORF
DATOS DEL MERCADO FINANCIERO Y CAMBIARIO

Datos del Mercado Financiero

Tasas a futuro
(por US$)
30 das a futuro
90 das a futuro
180 das a futuro
Beta de Marriott:
AO
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

Precio
1.8717
1.8615
1.8468
1.1
INFLACION DE
ESTADOS UNIDOS
3.50%
2.00%
3.00%
3.50%
4.30%
4.30%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%

INFLACION DE
ALEMANIA
2.20%
-0.20%
0.20%
1.50%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%

TIPO DE CAMBIO
(DM/$)
2.94
2.17
1.80
1.77
1.73
1.69
1.65
1.61
1.57
1.53
1.49
1.45
1.42
1.38
1.35
1.32
1.28
1.25
1.22
1.19
1.16
1.13
1.10
1.08
1.05
1.02
1.00
0.97

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%

2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%

0.95
0.93
0.90
0.88
0.86
0.84

ANEXO 8
MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORF
RESUMEN DE ANALISIS DE FLUJO DE CAJA DESCONTADO
(EN MILES DE US$)

HOTEL DE FRANKFURT

Ao
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

Factor de
Tipo de cambio Riesgo de Pais
1.77
0
1.73
0.99
1.69
0.99
1.65
0.99
1.61
0.99
1.57
0.99
1.53
0.99
1.49
0.99
1.45
0.99
1.42
0.99
1.38
0.99
1.35
0.99
1.32
0.99
1.28
0.99
1.25
0.99
1.22
0.99
1.19
0.99
1.16
0.99
1.13
0.99
1.10
0.99
1.08
0.99
1.05
0.99
1.02
0.99
1.00
0.99
0.97
0.99
0.95
0.99
0.93
0.99
0.90
0.99
0.88
0.99
0.86
0.99
0.84
0.99

Flujo de Caja Neto

antes de Alquiler
0
2,399
3,464
4,626
4,872
5,327
5,750
6,038
6,378
6,703
7,091
7,469
7,870
8,361
8,821
9,312
9,835
10,395
10,994
11,635
12,209
12,937
13,720
14,417
15,312
16,107
16,950
18,044
19,011
20,040
21,136

Tasas de descuento
Valor Presente Neto

11.0%
59,462

Alquiler
Mnimo
0
2,289
2,343
2,400
2,460
2,522
2,588
2,658
2,731
2,789
2,870
2,933
3,000
3,094
3,168
3,246
3,328
3,414
3,504
3,600
3,667
3,771
3,882
3,960
4,082
4,168
4,258
4,400
4,500
4,605
4,714
6.5%
(39,185)

Ambos hoteles
VPN NETO ($)
(5,694)

Unicamente Frankfurt
(5,077)

HOTEL DE DUSSELDORF
Alquiler
Complementario

Inversin
de Capital
16,271

261
289
301
401
428
457
683
723
760
805
848
893
949
1,001
1,056
1,115
1,178
1,246
1,318
1,383
1,465
1,554
1,632
1,733
1,823
1,918
2,041
2,150
2,266
2,390
8.0%
(9,083)

0.0%
(16,271)

Flujo de Caja Neto

antes de Alquiler

Pago de
Alquiler

91
133
232
276
299
315
333
351
367
386
403
419
439
457
473
490
508
527
548
564

229
234
240
246
252
259
266
273
279
287
293
300
309
317
325
333
341
350
360
367

11.0%
2,449

6.5%
(3,066)

Unicamente Dusseldorf
(617)