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Abstract
This paper purposely measures return and volatility spillovers in global financial markets,
foreign exchange and equity markets, by employing the variance decomposition of a vector
autoregression (VAR) and calculating into spillover indices, proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009).
The objectives of the paper is to investigate not only the sources of return and volatility spillovers in
foreign exchange market, which may arise from regional or major trading partners currencies, but also
to clarify the sources of return and volatility spillovers in equity market. In general, the empirical finding
suggests that approximately 80% of forecast error variance comes from spillovers, both returns and
volatilities. In particular, in analysis of currency market, the author found that the return spillover to
Thai baht (THB), apart from itself, comes primarily from US dollar, Indonesian rupiah (IDR), and
Singapore dollar (SGD). In addition, the volatility spillover to Thai baht (THB) arises from Indonesian
rupiah (IDR) and Philippine peso (PHP). However, in an analysis of spillovers in equity market, the
author found that the return spillover to Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), apart from itself, results
primarily from New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), while there are no volatility spillovers from other
national equity markets to Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).These empirical findings are essential for
international portfolio managers devising portfolio strategies. Moreover, the policy implication is
particular important to central bank for intervention the foreign exchange market in the case of excess
volatility.
I.
Introduction
The global foreign exchange activities have expedited in recent two decades on account of rapid
globalization, especially in financial markets. Consistent with globalization, the speedy economic
liberalization of the international trade and financial markets, conjointly the adoptions of floating
exchange rate regime by industrialized countries in the early 1970s have made cross-border capital flows
swift and effortless (Krugman and Obstfeld, 2009). This evolution has heralded an era of increased
exchange rate risk and volatility in global currency market. These developments also indicate multiply
occurrences of foreign exchange rate volatility spillovers and transmissions across currency markets. For
comprehensive perspective, stock markets should be sensitive to the increasing volatility of exchange
rates. Currency markets are also more responsive to global portfolio investments and innovations in
stock markets resulting from the economic deregulation and integration in the global financial market
since the 1980s (Yang and Doong, 2004).
In relevant literature, theoretical links between stock prices and exchange rates have taken two
forms. Firstly, flow-oriented models of exchange rate determination (Dornbusch and Fisher, 1980)
assume that the exchange rate is determined largely by a countrys current account or trade balance
performance. These models posit that changes in exchange rates affect international competitiveness and
trade balance, thereby influencing real economic variables such as real income and output. Stock prices,
usually defined as a present value of future cash flows of firms, should adjust to the economic
perspectives. Thus, flow oriented models represent a positive relationship between stock prices and
exchanges rates with direction of causation running from exchange rates to stock prices. . Causation can
be explained as follows. Domestic currency depreciation makes the local firms more competitive, thus
their exports become cheaper in international comparison. Higher exports lead to higher incomes and
increase in firms stock prices.
On the other hand, stock oriented models of exchange rate determination (Branson, 1983; Frankel,
1983) put much stress on the role of financial account in determining exchange rate dynamics. These
models view exchange rates as equating the supply and demand for assets such as stocks and bonds.
Since the values of financial assets are determined by the present values of their future cash flows,
expectations of relative currency values play a considerable role in their price movements, especially for
internationally held financial assets. Therefore, stock price innovations may affect exchange rate
dynamics.
Previous studies, which have examined the relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets
mainly for US (e.g. Aggarwal (1981), Soenen and Hennigar (1988), Roll (1992) and Chow et al.
(1997)), found different results concerning the links between the two markets. For example, Aggarwal
(1981) finds that revaluation of the US dollar is positively related to stock market returns. In contrast,
when Soenen and Hennigar (1988) considered a different period, 1980-1986, found a significantly
negative relationship. Roll (1992), who used daily data over the period 1988-1991 found also a positive
relationship between the two markets. On the other hand, Chow et al (1997) using monthly data for the
period 1977-1989 found no relationship for monthly excess stock returns and real exchange rate returns.
When repeating the exercise, however, with longer than six months horizons they found a positive
relationship between a strong dollar and stock returns. Despite the examination of the linkages and
interactions between exchange rates and stock prices, only a limited body of the paper has attempted to
analyze the possibility that there are return and volatility spillovers in currency and equity markets, and
volatility spillover effect can exist between the stock and currency markets. An examination of the
volatility spillover process also enhances the understanding of information transmission between stock
prices and exchange rates.
This paper purposely measures return and volatility spillovers in global financial markets, foreign
exchange and equity markets, by employing the variance decomposition of a vector autoregression
(VAR) and calculating into spillover indices, proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009). The objectives of
the paper is to investigate not only the sources of return and volatility spillovers in foreign exchange
market, which may arise from regional or major trading partners currencies, but also to clarify the
sources of return and volatility spillovers in equity market. These empirical findings are essential for
international portfolio managers devising portfolio strategies. Moreover, the policy implication is
particular important to central bank for intervention the foreign exchange market in the case of excess
volatility.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. The next section exhibits the data and
methodological issues, the spillover index. Section III is the empirical findings in the global financial
markets and the empirical analysis. Section IV investigates the dynamic spillovers and interdependence
between the currency and equity markets. Finally, section V summarizes.
II.
The data set consists of daily equity market indices for 9 countries and exchange rates for 9
countries. The stock indices for 9 countries are NYSE Composite Index, FTSE MIB Index, Nikkei 225
Index, Jakarta Composite Index, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index, Philippine SE Index, Straits Times
Index, SET index, and S&P/TSX Composite Index. The exchange rates (per US Dollar) for 9 countries
are trade-weighted U.S. dollar index, Great Britain pound (GBP), Japanese yen (JPY), Indonesian rupiah
(IDR), Malaysian ringgit (MYR), Philippine peso (PHP), Singapore dollar (SGD), Thai baht (THB), and
Canadian dollar (CAD) (see Appendix 1).
The datasets in equity market are daily nominal local-currency composite stock market indices
for ten recent years, Jan 2000 Jan 2010, obtained from Bloomberg, and the datasets in currency market
are daily direct-quoted foreign exchange rate for ten recent years, Jan 2000 Jan 2010, acquired from
Reuters. The daily data is aggregated into weekly observations to eliminate end-of-week effects and
time differences in trading sessions across markets. The paper employs the new methodology of
spillover estimation of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) based on a standard VAR and the Cholesky
decomposition of an error variance-covariance matrix. The main instruments are return and volatility
spillovers. Spillovers are defined as short-run interdependencies, effects which fluctuations in one
market exert on other markets (Diebold and Yilmaz, 2009).
ii.
Methodology
that automatically yields to a large amount of information collected and employed. As a consequence,
weekly volatility is assumed constant over a week and is modeled according to the following rule:
Where
week,
The next step is to assess indices of return/volatility spillovers in accordance with the Diebold
and Yilmaz (2009) methodology. Indices are estimated by means of traditional VAR models
Where
is a vector of returns or volatility, and s is the number of stock
markets, p is the order of the model) and the Cholesky decomposition of a forecast error variance.
A spillover index is defined as a summary effect attributable to external shocks over total
forecast error variation of the system in percent. Thus, the total spillover index for the n-step-ahead
forecast may be represented as
(see Appendix 2)
Where
III.
The dataset in both currency and equity markets for 9 countries is used in log term, and the are
tested for unit root stationary for the first difference. There are descriptive statics:
Table 1: Descriptive statistics, global currency market returns, 1/1/200031/1/2010
CAD
USD
GBP
IDR
JPY
MYR
PHP
SGD
THB
Mean
0.245087
4.522563
-0.52448
9.137921
4.714034
1.299748
3.908643
0.488565
3.649044
Median
0.224103
4.483906
-0.51528
9.126415
4.720372
1.334869
3.92829
0.516529
3.672496
Maximum
0.478839
4.786658
-0.32092
9.392662
4.902307
1.335001
4.03176
0.613563
3.823847
Minimum
-0.06817
4.271891
-0.73726
8.850088
4.464413
1.144541
3.692622
0.301511
3.38439
Std. Dev.
0.150947
0.145046
0.117037
0.088847
0.088836
0.051038
0.093096
0.084851
0.112639
Skewness
-0.03741
0.331293
0.020881
0.318934
-0.59078
-1.291
-0.62962
-0.57996
-0.49335
Kurtosis
1.719277
1.907501
1.663465
4.294774
3.083758
3.509639
2.523141
2.151057
2.10863
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
Observations
USD
GBP
IDR
JPY
MYR
PHP
SGD
THB
Mean
3.53E-05
2.72E-05
3.86E-05
-0.16337
4.36E-05
-0.03133
-0.0084
9.76E-06
-0.00164
Median
2.17E-05
2.02E-05
2.35E-05
1.79E-05
2.99E-05
1.61E-09
1.10E-05
6.38E-06
8.13E-06
Maximum
0.000815
0.000453
0.001169
0.002199
0.000928
6.46E-05
0.00268
0.000221
0.004461
Minimum
2.50E-06
1.21E-06
3.00E-06
-6.37051
5.03E-06
-0.12875
-1.12016
9.47E-07
-0.92313
Std. Dev.
5.82E-05
3.08E-05
7.33E-05
0.986639
5.81E-05
0.054874
0.096148
1.37E-05
0.040373
Skewness
7.410668
7.229901
9.599359
-5.86839
8.213842
-1.18253
-11.3048
8.804598
-22.8002
Kurtosis
80.01955
84.50224
126.7029
35.45698
109.1234
2.40715
128.813
117.8885
520.8999
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
Observations
Canada
United
Kingdom
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Mean
9.17E+00
8.84E+00
1.04E+01
6.834391
9.42E+00
6.791308
7.525995
7.64E+00
6.27106
Median
9.14E+00
8.82E+00
1.04E+01
6.91E+00
9.37E+00
6.79E+00
7.53E+00
7.62E+00
6.46E+00
Maximum
9.614752
9.240044
10.80679
7.948125
9.924989
7.32E+00
8.249105
8.246533
6.796343
Minimum
8.69E+00
8.36E+00
9.46E+00
5.837316
8.88E+00
6.323749
6.901083
7.08E+00
5.538357
Std. Dev.
2.38E-01
1.96E-01
2.64E-01
0.65793
2.47E-01
0.237103
0.363667
2.75E-01
0.359794
Skewness
0.062319
0.109088
-0.42891
0.116647
0.051422
0.258766
0.187756
0.200193
-0.43186
Kurtosis
1.923053
2.328323
2.63074
1.590534
2.000777
2.276455
2.011088
2.282575
1.678891
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
Observations
Canada
United
Kingdom
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Mean
1.33E-04
1.29E-04
1.07E-04
0.00018
1.65E-04
6.95E-05
0.000113
8.26E-05
0.000167
Median
5.33E-05
5.10E-05
4.05E-05
9.84E-05
9.99E-05
3.54E-05
7.15E-05
2.52E-05
9.44E-05
Maximum
0.002753
0.004137
0.002577
0.003153
0.005016
1.13E-03
0.002262
0.002399
0.004441
Minimum
4.04E-06
3.31E-06
4.17E-08
2.87E-06
3.55E-06
1.65E-06
5.53E-06
2.34E-07
7.14E-06
Std. Dev.
2.81E-04
3.20E-04
2.23E-04
0.000297
3.24E-04
0.000106
0.000158
2.33E-04
0.000292
Skewness
6.026145
7.816055
6.084571
5.45625
9.210521
4.531051
6.649754
6.981881
7.770958
Kurtosis
46.60802
78.83395
52.20425
41.73445
114.6761
32.49861
74.15138
59.80769
95.68371
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
523
Observations
ii.
Spillover Tables
Here is a full-sample analysis of 9 countries of currency and equity market return and volatility
spillovers. As part of the analysis, the author follows decomposing the Spillover Index into all of the
forecast error variance components for variable i coming from shocks to variable j, for all i and j
proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009). To begin with, the author characterizes return and volatility
spillovers over the entire sample, January 2000 January 2010. The author reports spillover indexes
(see Appendix 3) for returns and volatilities in the lower right corners of tables 5 to 8, chronologically.
The ijth entry in the table is the estimated contribution to the forecast error variance of country i (returns
in currency market in table 5, volatility in currency market in table 6, returns in equity market in table 7,
and volatility in equity market in table 8) coming from factors or innovations to country j Hence, the offdiagonal column sums (labeled To Others) or row sums (labelled From Others), when totalled across
countries, give the numerator of the spillover index. While, the column sums or row sums (including
diagonals) give the denominator of the spillover index.
The important empirical findings in currency market from tables 5 and 6 are that approximately
80% of forecast error variance comes from spillovers, both for returns (77%) and volatilities (85%).
Besides, there is roughly 100% of forecast error variance comes from spillovers. Hence spillovers are
important in both returns and volatilities in currency market, and on average return and volatility
spillovers are of the same magnitude, unconditionally. However, at any given point in time,
conditionally, return and volatility spillovers may be very different and, more generally, their dynamics
may be different. Specifically, the return spillover to Thai baht (THB), apart from itself, comes primarily
from US dollar, Indonesian rupiah (IDR), and Singapore dollar (SGD). In addition, the volatility
spillover to Thai baht (THB) arises from Indonesian rupiah (IDR) and Philippine peso (PHP). On the
other hand, the return spillover to Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), apart from itself, results primarily
from New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), while there are no volatility spillovers from other national
equity markets to Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
Table 5: Spillover table, global currency market returns, 1/1/200031/1/2010
From
1
CAD
To
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2
USD
3
GBP
4
IDR
5
JPY
6
MYR
7
PHP
8
SGD
9
THB
From
Other
CAD
USD
GBP
IDR
JPY
MYR
PHP
SGD
THB
2266.817
2.526953
50.8056
7.17877
27.0962
2.259446
7.690114
7.558733
2.259446
850.2286
1297.031
90.5266
29.04953
21.83204
1.720473
47.84932
6.183872
55.57857
821.5799
537.0806
847.7007
34.98155
90.65503
0.501722
46.58242
7.037695
13.88031
191.5088
35.66388
13.38084
2030.111
104.187
1.960731
4.93252
11.94064
6.31467
5.397126
474.0748
427.8744
59.56881
1397.706
7.19925
2.5819
4.234862
21.36321
518.3312
136.9931
1.563375
60.75371
77.61979
1483.049
6.254445
39.12858
76.3066
157.0648
20.82601
6.380017
183.4207
48.22015
109.18
1679.879
59.09605
135.9329
700.8597
463.1308
101.0935
165.8283
35.82132
170.3139
4.328726
718.5272
40.09657
220.499
149.4115
45.73847
146.6191
65.56911
18.49153
60.60852
159.5365
1533.526
3465.469
1819.708
737.3629
687.4004
471.0007
311.627
180.828
294.7169
351.7323
To Other
107.3753
1102.969
1552.299
369.8891
1002.294
916.9509
720.1206
1681.473
866.4737
77.12775%
Total
2374.192
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
CAD
USD
GBP
IDR
JPY
MYR
PHP
SGD
THB
From
Other
CAD
1799.487
712.3202
1121.072
151.6549
909.0414
45.32858
6.560701
786.192
3.81776
3735.987
USD
107.9592
1329.301
347.1368
62.21134
200.5799
42.72806
22.66169
241.0457
10.54899
1034.872
GBP
44.82097
125.731
531.9477
124.5456
165.4403
42.16916
23.38499
163.2076
15.25097
704.5505
IDR
112.0332
50.60311
106.2025
1714.409
136.4583
29.90116
554.1951
76.17474
121.074
1186.642
JPY
17.09502
41.81128
30.00663
29.37617
696.658
72.31061
16.38426
87.78773
8.506381
303.2781
MYR
19.06005
15.12536
16.19321
28.31453
33.767
2071.322
14.66298
13.84017
16.73095
157.6943
PHP
59.60152
31.89048
46.8227
45.05104
49.8797
22.74298
1271.182
43.79862
255.9561
555.7432
SGD
232.042
89.53843
195.3307
70.49383
198.6172
33.44195
15.96123
979.9029
6.183903
841.6092
THB
19.06005
3.679486
5.288261
173.9436
9.558237
40.05555
475.0071
8.050546
1961.931
734.6428
To
Other
611.672
1070.699
1868.052
685.591
1703.342
328.678
1128.818
1420.097
438.0691
85.65037%
Total
2411.159
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
To
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Canada
United
States
United
Kingdom
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
From
Singapore
Thailand
Other
848.3336
3.053926
43.10494
90.21943
156.3115
57.26278
14.1411
67.74751
45.36059
477.2017
1343.283
2203.791
1287.585
547.7299
747.3485
360.1788
595.6241
1227.189
713.2116
6822.15
Thailand
53.7426
38.30092
63.83901
15.46529
24.40153
5.769918
15.46529
58.56185
14.04612
21.84476
37.36501
33.62664
7.207731
20.50279
862.8272
5.430236
146.9898
11.47658
36.12088
3.211105
3.25423
19.29377
1542.207
7.871014
6.151084
139.9469
13.56219
33.01882
156.0841
22.64927
1243.353
4.9328
54.32779
3.060391
11.9323
61.26683
496.69
89.17161
1199.819
26.76637
107.0202
1.824066
13.4283
489.4769
54.56744
10.34614
1144.448
71.94332
6.024982
114.7647
152.4458
123.6375
67.93184
81.61936
564.049
0.615136
32.72881
191.5921
81.60395
18.66962
90.78612
90.8727
1135.174
509.871
1410.631
589.5251
172.3384
487.5956
302.6476
92.6376
To Other
1560.268
196.2088
1537.173
857.7931
1156.647
1200.181
1255.552
1835.951
1264.826
100.5581%
Total
2408.602
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
Canada
United
States
United
Kingdom
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
To
Canada
United States
United Kingdom
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Canada
United
States
United
Kingdom
1756.494
1159.87
736.4762
618.1834
862.966
241.0432
511.1786
900.2417
254.4891
5284.448
242.1554
775.6943
593.783
230.199
682.9095
107.1915
328.3272
434.6886
102.0177
2721.272
Thailand
54.0751
187.6345
69.49334
10.61258
38.88035
18.01211
10.61258
73.7091
209.2484
97.8451
20.67008
35.36069
9.287938
18.31434
695.3979
148.5484
146.9864
18.37892
28.99121
18.2878
13.1502
58.99959
1324.681
71.42332
18.52674
15.53843
35.01314
27.43545
53.37213
204.0341
511.7827
23.48215
25.58663
17.4355
18.43131
39.37015
247.5473
78.37433
1551.629
21.2497
19.06754
94.52696
45.03016
288.7544
63.82876
77.05425
954.8738
44.43407
86.51888
189.7674
283.1334
138.9285
16.36872
43.40634
383.3849
10.08037
14.71099
70.95313
39.56495
37.14777
22.08052
29.67046
1829.365
529.0346
1639.854
706.4448
222.2412
231.0939
191.2086
279.0701
To Other
631.4759
1624.306
1704.602
1075.319
1888.217
848.3707
1445.126
2016.615
570.6345
109.3634%
2387.97
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
2400
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Total
IV.
From
Other
Summary
In this paper, the author purposely measures return and volatility spillovers currency and equity
markets, by employing the variance decomposition of a vector autoregression (VAR) and calculating
into spillover indices, proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009). The important empirical findings in
currency market are that approximately 80% of forecast error variance comes from spillovers. Besides,
there is roughly 100% of forecast error variance comes from spillovers. Hence spillovers are important
in both returns and volatilities in currency market, and on average return and volatility spillovers are of
the same magnitude, unconditionally. In particular, the return spillover to Thai baht (THB), apart from
itself, comes primarily from US dollar, Indonesian rupiah (IDR), and Singapore dollar (SGD). In
addition, the volatility spillover to Thai baht (THB) arises from Indonesian rupiah (IDR) and Philippine
peso (PHP). On the other hand, the return spillover to Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), apart from
itself, results primarily from New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), while there are no volatility spillovers
from other national equity markets to Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).These empirical findings are
essential for international portfolio managers devising portfolio strategies. Moreover, the policy
implication is particular important to central bank for intervention the foreign exchange market in the
case of excess volatility.
References
Aggarwal, R. (1981), Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Study of the US Capital Markets under
Floating Exchange Rates, Akron Business and Economic Review, (Fall), pp.7-12.
Branson, W.H. 1983, Macroeconomic Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Risk, in R.J. Herring (ed.)
Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Chow, E.H., W.Y. Lee and M.S. Solt, 1997, The Exchange Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns, Journal
of Business, 70, 105-123.
Diebold F. X., Yilmaz K., (2009), Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With
Application to Global Equity Market, The Economic Journal, 2009, pp.158-171.
Doong, S. C. and Yang, S. Y., (2004), Price and Volatility Spillovers between Stock Markets and
Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence from the G-7 Countries, International Journal of Business and
Economics, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp.139-153
Dornbusch, R. and S. Fischer, (1980), Exchange Rates and the Current Account, American Economic
Review, 70(5), pp.960-971.
Jeffrey A. Frankel., (1987), Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination,
Economics Working Papers 8752, University of California at Berkeley
Garman, Mark B. and Michael J. Klass (1980), On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from
Historical Data, Journal of Business, 53, 67-78.
Krugman, P.R., and M. Obstfeld, 2009, International Economics: Theory and Policy, 8th Edition,
Pearson International Edition.
Roll, R., 1992, Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behaviour of International Stock Market
Indices, Journal of Finance, 47, 3-41.
Soenen, L.A. and E.S. Hennigar, 1988, An Analysis of Exchange Rates and Stock Prices - The US
Experience between 1980 and 1986, Akron Business and Economic Review, (Winter), pp.7-16.
Appendix
Appendix 1
Supplementary table for composite indices of national equity market and foreign exchange rate
Countries
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
United State
United Kingdom
Japan
Canada
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Appendix 2
Consider a standard vector autoregression (VAR) model
____ (1)
Where
is a vector.
The property of stability allows rewriting (1) in moving average process (MA) presentation
____ (2)
From the definition of inverse matrices to determine the matrix operator
Where
Which
A Cholesky decomposition of a symmetric positive-definite matrix gives another representation of MA model from equation
(2)
____ (3)
Where
and
covariance matrix of
Where
Hence, the variance of the one-step-ahead errors in forecasting
is
in
forecasting
is
and in forecasting
is
. The
decomposition makes it possible to split the variance of forecast errors into parts related to local and
external shocks. Thus
,for example, is an intensity of a local shock of
, while
is an
intensity of an external shock from
on
.
In compliance with the Diebold and Yilmaz methodology, a spillover index is defined as a summary
effect attributable to external shocks over total forecast error variation in percent. For example, the
spillover index for the one-step-ahead forecast is
Appendix 3
Table A1: Spillover index, global currency market returns, 1/1/200031/1/2010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
CAD
88.88889
89.05872
89.1048
89.12217
89.13501
89.15094
89.17277
89.20138
89.23687
89.27896
89.32718
89.38099
89.43981
89.50308
89.57023
89.64074
89.71411
89.78988
89.86762
89.94693
90.02745
90.10886
90.19087
90.2732
USD
92.23427
92.48808
92.66903
92.8348
92.99377
93.14933
93.30242
93.45308
93.60105
93.74597
93.88747
94.02525
94.15904
94.28866
94.41394
94.53482
94.65126
94.76324
94.87082
94.97406
95.07304
95.16786
95.25865
95.34554
SGD
95.72692
95.88682
95.99053
96.07729
96.15911
96.23857
96.31659
96.39335
96.46885
96.54296
96.61554
96.68647
96.75562
96.82289
96.8882
96.9515
97.01274
97.07191
97.12898
97.18397
97.2369
97.28777
97.33664
97.38352
THB
91.65174
92.21447
92.37463
92.45823
92.51362
92.56091
92.60736
92.65588
92.70742
92.76207
92.8195
92.87922
92.94066
93.00329
93.06663
93.13022
93.19369
93.25672
93.31904
93.38045
93.44077
93.49988
93.55768
93.6141
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
CAD
88.88889
89.40136
89.53812
89.61787
90.16933
90.60206
90.55072
91.30066
91.62065
91.81452
91.96407
92.16945
92.356
92.51134
92.54975
92.63858
92.67988
USD
89.16986
89.78463
90.23172
92.06313
92.25845
92.31437
92.22855
92.49521
93.11701
93.32498
95.34399
95.10134
95.10686
95.05279
95.13788
95.24061
95.31058
SGD
90.37697
91.34442
91.75113
93.03524
93.8024
94.18666
94.4455
94.5423
95.26639
95.32954
96.93359
97.02227
96.91875
96.95495
96.80931
96.77544
96.79711
THB
88.9192
88.94755
88.99585
89.02602
89.057
89.2614
91.35332
91.48103
91.50981
91.54044
91.57789
91.58872
91.5974
91.60549
91.62829
91.64014
91.64278
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
92.70707
92.74174
92.79276
92.80518
92.86194
92.88941
92.8856
95.51222
95.50827
95.52509
95.54764
95.57342
95.63147
95.71987
98.21057
98.22343
98.22606
98.23895
98.25596
98.28186
98.28888
93.8532
93.88787
93.85725
93.92893
93.97957
94.14227
94.16824
97.52691
97.5259
97.53509
97.55475
97.55244
97.56816
97.58065
90.98273
91.01998
91.05084
91.08256
91.08324
91.13917
91.16978
95.90232
95.84058
95.76394
95.77654
95.77864
95.78244
95.78632
96.97117
96.97263
96.96484
96.97577
96.96841
96.98133
96.99579
91.64006
91.56066
91.47
91.47785
91.48515
91.49131
91.5103
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Canada
88.88889
94.57632
95.26359
95.70162
95.89845
96.03259
96.12752
96.20483
96.27166
96.33285
96.39085
96.44714
96.50253
96.5575
96.61224
96.66685
96.72131
96.77556
96.82951
96.88305
96.93608
96.98849
97.04019
97.09109
United
States
88.90581
89.02114
89.08521
89.15633
89.22566
89.29887
89.37464
89.4527
89.53218
89.61243
89.69283
89.77289
89.85218
89.93036
90.00715
90.08234
90.15575
90.22726
90.29674
90.36415
90.42942
90.49253
90.55348
90.61226
Singapore
92.68749
94.95065
95.89398
96.43726
96.77776
97.02559
97.2187
97.3768
97.50999
97.62457
97.72465
97.81312
97.8921
97.96317
98.02755
98.08621
98.13994
98.18936
98.23499
98.27728
98.31658
98.35321
98.38743
98.41948
Thailand
92.1841
93.30581
93.90834
94.22408
94.41553
94.54596
94.64462
94.72424
94.79162
94.85056
94.90347
94.95188
94.99686
95.03914
95.07927
95.11764
95.15455
95.19025
95.2249
95.25867
95.29165
95.32395
95.35563
95.38677
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Canada
88.88889
89.7886
90.28893
90.92613
91.46385
91.78662
91.87182
91.77837
United
States
95.08216
95.71725
96.06168
95.63917
95.76304
96.19922
96.31442
96.42034
Singapore
94.87766
96.66165
97.32543
97.71552
98.01701
98.22963
98.40264
98.46782
Thailand
90.17354
90.45443
90.61255
90.90648
91.08398
91.30124
91.46587
91.56444
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
91.9064
92.06691
92.12419
92.27859
92.30269
92.32313
92.36619
92.43933
92.45789
92.4735
92.49528
92.51593
92.53789
92.56904
92.58479
92.59903
96.45724
96.5334
96.57257
96.59903
96.6162
96.6401
96.65674
96.68289
96.69553
96.70424
96.71869
96.73441
96.74365
96.75075
96.75166
96.75739
96.97408
97.01005
96.99799
97.01178
97.01837
96.99702
97.00063
97.0186
97.00094
97.0245
97.05804
97.0657
97.06413
97.06597
97.06232
97.05668
94.03241
94.15164
94.22417
94.25606
94.26283
94.28131
94.29178
94.32335
94.33705
94.34284
94.34641
94.3613
94.36804
94.3718
94.38019
94.38967
98.2984
98.36472
98.37238
98.37605
98.3671
98.36655
98.36997
98.35706
98.34401
98.3401
98.3185
98.31015
98.30262
98.29624
98.29237
98.2879
92.77421
92.82028
93.17602
93.25082
93.27079
93.28674
93.3091
93.32006
93.33692
93.35613
93.3676
93.37768
93.38773
93.39338
93.39991
93.40216
95.95542
95.97093
96.19563
96.20554
96.21908
96.23542
96.24952
96.25828
96.2731
96.28638
96.2921
96.29797
96.30146
96.30373
96.30959
96.31094
98.5166
98.55838
98.56777
98.57415
98.57336
98.58174
98.59149
98.60885
98.62258
98.62666
98.63672
98.64129
98.64476
98.64888
98.65363
98.65747
91.62726
91.71594
91.76328
91.7894
91.80088
91.81747
91.82487
91.83862
91.85297
91.85605
91.86528
91.87509
91.87863
91.88429
91.89097
91.89363
Spillover Plots A1: Return Spillover Index (Global Currency Market), for 24-period forecasting
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
USD
CAD
100
96
98
94
96
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
92
94
90
92
90
88
88
86
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
GBP
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
IDR
91.5
91
90.5
90
89.5
89
88.5
88
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MYR
JPY
97
98
96
96
95
94
94
92
93
92
90
91
88
90
86
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
PHP
SGD
92
91
90
89
88
87
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
THB
Spillover Plots A2: Volatility Spillover Index (Global Currency Market), for 24-period
forecasting
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
CAD
USD
100
96
98
94
96
92
94
90
92
90
88
88
86
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
GBP
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
IDR
91.5
91
90.5
90
89.5
89
88.5
88
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
JPY
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MYR
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
PHP
SGD
92
91
90
89
88
87
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
THB
Spillover Plots A3: Return Spillover Index (Global Equity Market), for 24-period forecasting
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
CAD
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
USD
100
96
98
94
96
92
94
90
92
90
88
88
86
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
GBP
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
IDR
91.5
91
90.5
90
89.5
89
88.5
88
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
JPY
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MYR
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
PHP
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
SGD
92
91
90
89
88
87
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
THB
Spillover Plots A4: Volatility Spillover Index (Global Equity Market), for 24-period forecasting
98
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
CAD
USD
100
96
98
94
96
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
92
94
90
92
90
88
88
86
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
GBP
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
IDR
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
91.5
91
90.5
90
89.5
89
88.5
88
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
JPY
MYR
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
PHP
SGD
92
91
90
89
88
87
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
THB