Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
2
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Increases By Region:
3
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2011
2015
Americas
+7%
+5%
Europe
+4%
Middle East
+4%
Africa
+2%
Source: UNWTO
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Source: UNWTO
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
5
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
Source: UNWTO
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
6
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
2014 was the 26th consecutive year that the travel and tourism
industry generated a balance of trade surplus in the US.
7
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
% Change in Visitors
CANADA
-2
MEXICO
UNITED KINGDOM
54% of visitors
US$ 16%
+19
+4
JAPAN
-4
BRAZIL
+10
+21
GERMANY
+3
FRANCE
+8
SOUTH KOREA
+7
AUSTRALIA
+6
top three
ports (New
York/JFK,
Miami, LA)
accounted
for 41% of
overseas
arrivals
9
8
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
While travel exports rose for a 4th consecutive month [in Jan 2015],
other exports of goods and services fell for a 3rd consecutive month.
10
11
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
12
Weather
50%
2014 vs. 2013
Consumer confidence
19.4%
25%
Percentage change
Hotel data
Sales and use tax
CVB taxes and assessments
Visits to attractions
10.4%
12.3%
9.4%
10.6%
1.9%
0%
-25%
-21.3%
-26.1%
-28.4%
-35.2%
-50%
Winter '13-'14
Spring '14
Summer '14
13
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Winter '14-'15
14
65%
0%
-1.1%
-1.8%
-5.3%
-4.2%
Percentage change
Percentage change
Fall '14
-4.3%
-9.5%
-20.2%
-25%
40%
15%
-10%
-33.0%
-35%
-40.6%
-50%
Winter '13-'14
Spring '14
Summer '14
Fall '14
-60%
Winter '14-'15
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
15
Aug
Annual Changes:
16
40%
40%
CCI
Percentage change
Percentage change
15%
-10%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-35%
-10%
-60%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
-20%
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual Changes:
Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center.
17
18
65%
Michigan
65.1%
US
63.7%
64.4%
60.3%
60%
58.9%
55%
50%
Michigan = 39th ()
Detroit = 22nd (of top 25) ()
Source:
Smith
Travel
Research.
45%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
19
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
USA
64.4%
(+3.6%)
$115.32
(+4.6%)
$74.28
(+8.3%)
Michigan
58.9%
(+2.3%)
$91.72
(+5.1%)
$54.00
(+7.5%)
Detroit
65.1%
(+4.0%)
$89.06
(+5.9%)
$57.97
(+10.0%)
20
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Source:
Smith Travel
Research.
21
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
22
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
$16
Assessments
2014 Use
# of Properties
2013 Sales
$10
2013 Use
$8
$6
$4
$2
Percentage change
$12
Millions
10%
2014 Sales
$14
6.1%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
0.7%
0.8%
0%
U.P.
$0
5.7%
4.6%
5%
N.L.P.
S.L.P.
Statewide
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
23
n = 39
24
5%
15%
8.25%
10%
4.13%
2.40%
Gas Prices
0%
Greenfield Village
0.20%
Percentage change
-15%
0.20%
MI Welcome Centers
-1.32%
Fort Mackinac
-3.45%
Colonial Michilimackinac
-4.70%
-8.26%
-10%
-20%
-10.53%
-30%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Percentage change
25
26
10%
5%
Traffic Counts
0%
Percentage change
Percentage change
5%
0%
-1.2%
-1.4%
-5%
-0.9%
-1.8% -1.8%
-2.6%
-4.2%
-5.9%
Cars Only
-10%
All Traffic
-5%
-10.6%
-15%
Mackinac Bridge Ambassador Bridge
-10%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Detroit-Windsor
Tunnel
Annual Change:
+ 0.7%
27
28
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Weather: 2014 was drier (-9%) and cooler (-5%) than 2013
(though wetter (+11%) than normal)
Millions
Assessments: up 5.7%
Mackinac Bridge
Ambassador Bridge
Detroit-Windsor Tunnel
International Bridge
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
Source: Mackinac Bridge Authority; Blue Water Bridge Authority, MDOT, Public Border Operators Association (PBOA).
29
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
30
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
2
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
2014
Michael OCallaghan
Lori Langone
Tracy Padot
Dave Lorenz
Bill Sheffer
David West
Travel prices
Travel volume
Travel spending
3
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Projected
by MSU
Actual
data
+ 4%
+4.5%
+ 1.5%
+1%
+ 4.5% +0.5%
4
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
5%
1%
Economy
-3%
-7%
-11%
and
-15%
2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: MSU Department of Community Sustainability; Michigan Department of Treasury.
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
6
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Stock Markets
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
Industrial
Composite
Average
6
5
4
3.2
Percentage
3.0
2.9
2.2
2.2
1.8
2.1
2.2
3.3
2.1
0.4
1
0
-1
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
March 5, 2012
12,962
2,950
1,364
Mar 4, 2013
14,127
3,182
1,525
Mar 4, 2014
16,395
4,351
1,873
18,127
5,026
2,108
+10.6%
+15.5%
+12.5%
18,288
Mar 15
5,132
Mar 00
2,117
Mar 15
2015p 2016p
S&P 500
Record Highs
-2
-3
-2.6
-4
p = projected
8
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Mar 22
Mar 4
2014
%
change
US $ is
2015
Canadian $
1.26
1.10
14.5%
Stronger
Canadian $
Euro
.92
.72
27.8%
Stronger
Euro
Pound (UK)
.67
.59
13.6%
Stronger
Pound (UK)
Peso (Mexico)
15.05
13.29
13.2%
Stronger
Peso (Mexico)
Yen (Japan)
120.02
101.39
18.4%
Stronger
Yen (Japan)
Yuan (China)
6.12
6.12
0.%
Even
Yuan (China)
Real (Brazil)
3.22
2.33
38.2%
Stronger
Real (Brazil)
FRB Broad
Index
116.64
(Mar 11, 2015)
100.76
(Feb 26, 2014)
15.8%
Stronger
FRB Broad
Index
9
Mar 22
Mar 4
2014
%
change
US $ is
2015
1.26
1.10
14.5%
Stronger
.67
.59
13.6%
Stronger
13.2%
Stronger
101.39
18.4%
Stronger
6.12
0.%
Even
3.22
2.33
38.2%
Stronger
116.64
(Mar 11, 2015)
100.76
(Feb 26, 2014)
15.8%
Stronger
Domestic:
6.12
Stronger
10
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
Michigan Unemployment
U.S. Unemployment
Current
Reading:
5.5
Jan/10
Jan/12
Jan/14
11
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
12
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
Comerica Banks
Michigan Economic Activity Index
Jan/09
Jan/10
Jan/11
Jan/12
Jan/13
Gasoline Prices
Jan/14
Jan/15
13
Source: GasBuddy.com
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
14
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
91.2
Mar
2014:
81.6
15
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
16
Housing
17
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
18
19
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Source: Zillow.com
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
20
Source: Zillow
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
21
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
22
U.S. Housing
U.S. Housing
3.5%
8%
25%
24
Summary of Economy
GDP
Stock Markets
Unemployment
Consumer Confidence
Strength of Dollar
Housing
Michigan Economic Activity
25
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
26
Tourism Trends
27
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
28
29
30
31
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
32
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
38% access
internet from
all three devices
Up 5% since 2013
Compa
re
Featur
es
and Pr
ices
Advice &
Reviews
Make on
rvati
s
e
R e
To Stay in
Touch
33
Source: MMGY Global
34
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Device
Social Media
35
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Device
71% o
who u f those
s
Media e Social
d
a mob o so via
ile de
vice
36
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Device
Device
Sites
and
atedApps
indic
e
58%
onlin
at an had with
thWebsites
iew
revReviews
their
nced
influe ecisions
ld
trave
Websites with
Reviews
50%
of tri
adv
p
acce isor use
rs
ss vi
a mo
bile
Device
38
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
DMOs #1
Closely
followed by
OTAs and
Suppliers
Device
39
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Make Reservation
Sites and Apps
Make Reservation
Device
41
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
40
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
Device
2/3 o
f Orb
itz
mo
book bile
ing
sam s are
e da
y
ade
, 80% m
In 2015 urchase
travel p by
online r
te
compu
: 5%
Mobile %
14
:
e
Phon
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
42
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
To Keep in Touch
Sites and Apps
Keep in Touch
se
u
61% and
Sites
iaApps
ial Med
Device
Soc
while
g
Social
travelinMedia
Social Media
85% o
f Ame
ricans
(87%Device
inte
use sm rnational)
art ph
on
while
traveli e
(46%
ng
use a
tablet)
19% post on
vacation to make
others jealous
It wouldnt be a
vacation if others didnt
know I was on it.
43
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
45
Michigan State University, Department of CSUS
44
Family Travel
46
Source:
USTAOutlook
Travel Effects
Michigan
Tourism
2015
40% of families
have been on a multi-generational
vacation
48
Source:
USTAOutlook
Travel Effects
Michigan
Tourism
2015
Authentiseeking
49
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
50
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
51
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
52
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
54
55
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
56
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
57
58
Cons
Pros
Its
authentic
Facilitated
by internet
Its soc
ial
n
actio
Inter cals
lo
with
59
Safety concerns
Difficult to tax
Often dont pay bed tax
Free-riding on
destination marketing
60
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
10
Forecast
61
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
2014
Actual
62
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
2015
Projections
Upper Peninsula
Northern Lower P.
Domestic
Leisure
Volume
Domestic
Business
Volume
1.6%
1.7%
International
Visitors
4.1%
Southern Lower P.
+4.0
+6.1%
+3.0
63
Domestic
Spending
3.6%
6.7%
64
International
Spending*
Travel prices
+3%
Travel volume
+1.5%
Travel spending
+2.5%
Traffic counts
65
66
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
11
CONTACT INFORMATION
Weather!
U.S. markets/economy
War / terrorism
Phone: 517-353-5190
Fax:
517-353-8994
www.csus.msu.edu
67
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
68
Michigan Tourism Outlook 2015
12