AsiaPacificInformation

Superhighway(APIS):
NewAvenuetoRevenue

AbuSaeedKhan
SeniorPolicyFellow
LIRNEasia

@ESCAP,Bangkok
December23,2014

Technologyshapespolicyanddevelopment(1997)

Oslo2006

Ubiquitous UniversalAccess
EffectiveRegulation
License
Spectrum
Interconnection
InternetBandwidth

Operator1
UniversalService
Operator2
Operatorn

1997
2015

Ubiquitous voice/data
Ubiquitous broadband

Reducepovertyby50%
Brazildid
itin
2008!

PPPinMDG#8

Incooperationwiththe
privatesector, make
availablethebenefitsof
newtechnologies,
especially informationand
communications.

PPPinMDG#8

Incooperationwiththe
privatesector, make
availablethebenefitsof
newtechnologies,
especially informationand
communications.

AsianHighwaycandeliverMDG#8

Anetworkof141,000km ofstandardizedroadways
crisscrossing32countries connectingAsiawithEurope.
AtotalofUS$26billion hasalreadybeeninvestedinthe
improvementandupgrades.
However,thereisstillashortfallofUS$18billion.

MoredetailsinESCAPswebsite

Q:WhyAsianHighway
strugglesforfund?

A:Telecomshasnot beenconsidered.

Richispayinglesswhilepoorpaysmore.
WhoistobeblamedforcolonizingInternet?

Source:GlobalInternetGeography2014,TeleGeography.

Median Asian IP Transit Prices per Mbps, 10

Gigabit Ethernet, Q2 2011-Q2 2014
2011

2012

2013

2014

2013-14 CAGR 11-14

Hong Kong

$12.00

$8.20

$7.00

$6.00

-14%

-21%

Seoul

$13.50

$15.00

$13.50

$12.00

-17%

-4%

Singapore

$17.00

$8.60

$7.00

$6.25

-11%

-28%

Taipei

$14.33

$17.00

$15.55

$12.00

-27%

-6%

Tokyo

$13.50

$9.00

$9.00

$8.00

-29%

-16%

East Asia & China

South Asia & Oceania

Jakarta

$23.00

$22.00

$13.00

$12.06

-7%

-19%

Kuala Lumpur

$20.67

$11.00

$12.45

$8.00

-36%

-27%

Mumbai

$24.00

$24.00

$19.00

$19.00

0%

-7%

Sydney

$60.00

$25.00

$21.00

$19.00

-10%

-32%

Source:GlobalInternetGeography2014,TeleGeography.

Bandwidthforecast:ShifttowardsEurope

MiddleEast toEuropehasgrown
from51%(2003)to85%(2013).
NorthAfricatoEuropehasgrown
from61%(2003)to94%(2013).
72%ofbandwidthconnectedto
SubSaharanAfrica,upfrom39%a
decadeago.
SouthAsia toEuropehasgrown
fromlessthan6%(2003)toover
46%(2013).

Wehavetwo
majorconcerns
Source:CienaandTeleGeography

ChinagoestoEuropeviaRussia

MEEuropegetsterrestrial
JeddahAmmanDamascus
Istanbul(JADI)

RegionalCableNetwork(RCN)

BypassEgypt
Dodgethepirates

EuropePersia
ExpressGateway

IranandOmanalsodetour

EPEGisnowtheInternetsfastestpathbetweentheGulfand
Europe,shavingatleasttenpercentoff thebestsubmarinecable
roundtriptimefromDubaitoFrankfurt.JimCowie,Renesys.26
Sep,2013.

APAC toEuropeviaMiddleEast?

1) 2008:RelianceandChinaMobile terrestriallink.
2) 2009:TataandChinaMobile terrestriallink.
3) 2010:BhartiandChinaMobile terrestriallink.

Solution:FiberalongtheAsianHighway
Russia,India,China,Turkey,CentralAsia,SAARC,ASEAN+2

AsiaPacificInformationSuperhighway(APIS)
forIntraAsianandEurasianbroadband.

AsianHighwayhasalreadylinkedtheborders.
Afullymeshed terrestrialAPISiswaiting.

TargetsofAPIS:Openaccess

1) DiversityandRedundancytoallsubmarinecableslinkingAsiawith
EuropeandtheUSAviaJapanthroughaTerrestrialConsortium.
2) MigrateSEAMEWE3&SEAMEWE4fromoffshoretoonshore.
Alsoletallprivatecarrierstomigrate.

3) Noregulatorydisruption.Onlythelicensedcarrierswillaccess
LION.

AdvantagesofAPIS
Presumedunfriendlycountriesarealreadyinterlinked.
Submarine:SEAMEWE3andSEAMEWE4.
Terrestrial:SinoIndianlinks(Reliance/Tata/Bharti +ChinaMobile).

Highlyresilientduetobeingmeshed.
Reroutingthetrafficmeanszerodowntime.
Installationandmaintenancecrew/materialsavailableeverywhere.

Createsmoreopportunitiesforsubmarinecables.
InvestmentsintranspacificratherthanintraAsia.
Lower latencyandhigher SLAatlesser costforinternationalbandwidth.

Openaccessguaranteed

ImpactsofAPIS

InternetinAsiawillbesimilarto orcheaperthan theEU.

Mobilebroadband(HSPA/LTE)willgrowlike2Gvoice.
SmartdevicesandWiFioffloadarefastacceleratingtheconsumptionofdata.

Investmentsinbroadbandwillincrease.
TherewillbehigherROIinFTTx.

MoreinternationalanddomesticPoPs/accessnodeswillemerge.
Landlockedcountrieswillhavebandwidthatequalcost.
Subregionaltelecomsinitiativeshavenotdeliveredthat.

Pacificislandswillenjoyreducedbandwidthcostinthemainland.

InternationalGateway(IGW)reformswillbeaccelerated.
Usageofsubmarinecablespurchasedcapacitywillbemaximized.
Carrierswillcommitlongercontracts.

Nationalbroadbandbackbones
willrequirelessersubsidies.

APISandAsianHighway
TurnAsianHighwayintoAsianInformationHighway

ESCAPremainsthecommonproponent.
MillenniumDevelopmentGoals.
Localemploymentgeneration.
PublicPrivatePartnership.
Boostinglocalbusinesses.
Enablingsectoralreforms.

Respectivecountry'sroadauthoritieswillowntheirportionoffiber
network.
MayrequiretoobtainInfrastructureProviderlicenseforregulatory
compliance.
HugesavingsfromthenonpaymentofROW.
AccesswillbegiventotheInternationalGatewayoperatorsforregulatory
compliance.
AdjustedMarginwillbepaidtoeachcountryproportionately(Regular
contributiontotheroadmaintenancebudget).

November5,2013:TigerWoodsinIstanbul
tohit10golfballsfromAsiatoEurope.

ProfessorCharlesKKao(),FatherofOpticalFiber,
NobelLaureateinPhysics(2009)

Sandfromcenturiespast;
Sendfuturevoicesfast.

Nextsteps:Inclusiveengagement

RoutesurveyoftheentireAsianHighway.
Design,budgetandimplementationschedule.
Fundingoftheproject.