Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Estimate Change
Coal
$14.00
$8.22 - $14.35
$340
73
$0.16
1.3%
61.7%
27.8
$0.33
$0.40
INVESTMENT THESIS
Hallador Energy is a low-cost producer in the fastest-growing
coal basin in the US. The company has a strong balance sheet,
excellent FCF, and potentially strong organic growth in the future
through the development of their Bulldog Mine.
FINANCIALS
FYE Dec
2013A
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
$0.12
$0.10
$0.05
$0.34
$0.60
--
$0.33
$0.38
$0.39
$0.41
$1.50
$1.71
----$1.58
$1.33
----$1.85
-
------
----$1.10
----$1.10
------
$10.1
$30.3
$9.1
$31.8
$10.5
$31.9
$27.3
$32.5
$57.1 $126.6
----$126.4
----$132.5
Op EPS
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
$0.19
$0.19
$0.17
$0.16
$0.71
--
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
------
Total
Consensus
Prior Op EPS
Total
EBITDA (M)
Total
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
$11.9
$16.4
$11.6
$11.2
$50.9
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Hallador Energy is one of the lowest-cost steam coal producers
in the Illinois Basin. Through the company's 100% ownership
of Sunrise Energy LLC, Hallador shipped 5.4M tons in 2014
at a cash cost of $31.43/ton. The company also owns a 40%
interest in a private oil producer (Savoy Energy) with operations
in Michigan.
Buy
Lower costs the big story in Q4. Much of the coal industry was hampered by poor
rail service throughout 2014, HNRG included. Throw in an acquisition that essentially
tripled the size of the company, and you can begin to understand why HNRG's Q3
costs grew to $35.30/ton versus the previous six quarter average of $29.84/ton. For
Q4, management delivered on their expectation for lower costs, returning them to
the sub-$30/ton level. This helped generate EBITDA of $27.3M, ahead of both our
estimate of $24.6M and consensus of $23.2M. Shipments were slightly lower than
anticipated (actual=2.3M tons; BB&T=2.4M tons), but the combination of modestly
better pricing (actual=$43.95/ton; BB&T=$43.24/ton) and the aforementioned cost
improvement (actual=$29.61/ton; BB&T=$32.45/ton) resulted in a margin of $11.90/
ton, the company's highest since Q2 2013.
Momentum should continue into 2015. For the full-year 2015, management believes
they will be able to maintain their cost structure below $30/ton. The company has
already made several changes designed to improve transportation in 2015 and sees
the results as encouraging thus far. In fact, on the call management pointed out that
January was "quite good" from a cost perspective and that the first half of February was
"excellent" before snow fouled things up a bit. Notably, HNRG is essentially sold out in
2015 at an average price of $44.68/ton. Given weak coal markets (largely a function of
$2.73 gas prices), this is a big plus. We are forecasting full-year 2015 shipments of 9.5M
tons (implies 99% priced/committed) at $44.66/ton. Based on our revised shipment
estimates, Hallador also has ~35% of its tons priced for 2016 at an average of $44.03/
ton and ~15% at an average price of $44.39/ton for 2017.
Estimates raised; maintaining Buy rating. Based on full-year 2014 results and
management commentary on the call, we expect Q1 2015 EPS/EBITDA/FCF of $0.33/
$30.3M/$17.6M. We are adjusting our full-year 2015 EPS/EBITDA/FCF estimates from
$1.10/$117M/$56.0M to $1.50/$127M/$70.3M. Our 2016 estimates also increase to
$1.58/$126M/$74.2M versus $1.10/$117M/$55.9M previously. We assume $43/ton
on all unpriced Illinois Basin tons, which admittedly is looking a bit aggressive in the
current sub $3 gas environment. We also anticipate that HNRG will lower costs/ton
from $31.43 in 2014 to $29.98 in 2015 and to $29.22 in 2016. Capex for 2015 and
2016 is pegged at $37.6M and $38.4M, respectively. On our updated estimates, shares
of HNRG are trading at 4.1x 2016E EV/EBITDA versus peers at 13.5x on average. We
reiterate our Buy rating and $14 price target based on 4.5x 2016E EV/EBITDA.
Company Report
Page 2 of 6
Company Report
Revenues
Coal sales
Gain on sale of unprov ed oil & gas properties
Equity incom e - Sav oy (4 0% interest)
Equity incom e - Sunrise Energy
Other incom e
Total Rev enues
Y ear
2014A
Q1
2015E
Q2
2015E
Q3
2015E
Q4
2015E
Y ear
2015E
Y ear
2016E
Y ear
2017 E
$1 3 7 .4
0.0
5.8
0.6
1 0.0
$1 53 .9
$2 3 3 .9
0.0
5.3
0.2
1 .7
$2 4 1 .2
$1 04 .9
0.0
0.6
0.1
0.5
$1 06 .1
$1 05.6
0.0
0.6
0.1
0.5
$1 06 .8
$1 05.5
0.0
0.9
0.1
0.5
$1 07 .0
$1 06 .0
0.0
0.9
0.1
0.5
$1 07 .5
$4 2 2 .0
0.0
3 .1
0.4
2 .0
$4 2 7 .5
$4 1 6 .3
0.0
4 .6
0.4
2 .0
$4 2 3 .3
$4 1 9 .1
0.0
5.2
0.4
2 .0
$4 2 6 .6
9 2 .9
1 8.6
2 .4
7 .7
1 .5
1 6 9 .7
2 9 .3
2 .4
1 2 .0
1 7 .1
7 1 .4
1 4 .1
0.6
3 .8
4 .0
7 0.6
1 4 .2
0.6
3 .8
3 .7
7 0.7
1 4 .2
0.6
3 .8
3 .4
7 0.6
1 4 .2
0.6
3 .8
3 .1
2 83 .3
56 .7
2 .5
1 5.1
1 4 .2
2 80.6
57 .6
2 .5
1 3 .8
9 .4
2 7 7 .6
58.2
2 .5
1 4 .0
4 .6
1 2 3 .1
3 0.8
(7 .7 )
$ 23.2
2 3 0.5
1 0.7
(0.5)
$ 10.2
9 3 .9
1 2 .2
(3 .1 )
$ 9.2
9 2 .9
1 3 .9
(3 .5)
$ 10.4
9 2 .6
1 4 .4
(3 .6 )
$ 10.8
9 2 .4
1 5.2
(3 .8)
$ 11.4
3 7 1 .8
55.7
(1 3 .9 )
$ 41.8
3 6 3 .9
59 .4
(1 5.4 )
$ 44.0
3 56 .9
6 9 .7
(1 8.1 )
$ 51.6
$ 23.2
(2 .7 )
$ 20.4
$ 10.2
7 .0
$ 17 .2
$ 9.2
$ 10.4
$ 10.8
$ 11.4
$ 41.8
$ 44.0
$ 51.6
$ 9.2
$ 10.4
$ 10.8
$ 11.4
$ 41.8
$ 44.0
$ 51.6
EPS (Basic)
EPS (Dilut ed)
$0.81
$ 0.80
$0.3 6
$ 0.36
$0.3 2
$ 0.33
$0.3 6
$ 0.38
$0.3 7
$ 0.39
$0.3 9
$ 0.41
$1 .4 5
$ 1.50
$1 .53
$ 1.58
$1 .7 9
$ 1.85
$0.7 2
$ 0.7 1
$0.6 0
$ 0.60
$0.3 2
$ 0.33
$0.3 6
$ 0.38
$0.3 7
$ 0.39
$0.3 9
$ 0.41
$1 .4 5
$ 1.50
$1 .53
$ 1.58
$1 .7 9
$ 1.85
2 8.6
2 8.8
$ 50.9
2 8.8
2 8.8
$ 57 .1
2 8.8
2 7 .8
$ 30.3
2 8.8
2 7 .8
$ 31.8
2 8.8
2 7 .8
$ 31.9
2 8.8
2 7 .8
$ 32.5
2 8.8
2 7 .8
$ 126.6
2 8.8
2 7 .8
$ 126.4
2 8.8
2 7 .8
$ 132.5
2 4 .9 %
4 .5%
2 5.0%
2 5.0%
2 5.0%
2 5.0%
2 5.0%
2 6 .0%
2 6 .0%
$50.9
(1 .5)
(3 1 .4 )
(3 .5)
$1 4 .5
$ 0.50
$57 .1
(1 7 .1 )
(2 5.8)
(4 .8)
$9 .3
$ 0.32
$3 0.3
(4 .0)
(7 .6 )
(1 .1 )
$1 7 .6
$ 0.63
$3 1 .8
(3 .7 )
(9 .0)
(1 .1 )
$1 8.0
$ 0.65
$3 1 .9
(3 .4 )
(1 0.0)
(1 .1 )
$1 7 .4
$ 0.63
$3 2 .5
(3 .1 )
(1 1 .0)
(1 .1 )
$1 7 .3
$ 0.62
$1 2 6 .6
(1 4 .2 )
(3 7 .6 )
(4 .5)
$7 0.3
$ 2.53
$1 2 6 .4
(9 .4 )
(3 8.4 )
(4 .5)
$7 4 .2
$ 2.67
$1 3 2 .5
(4 .6 )
(3 8.8)
(4 .5)
$84 .7
$ 3.04
$4 3 .1 1
$2 9 .1 4
$1 3 .9 7
$4 3 .3 3
$3 1 .4 3
$1 1 .9 0
$4 4 .55
$3 0.3 2
$1 4 .2 3
$4 4 .6 5
$2 9 .85
$1 4 .80
$4 4 .7 0
$2 9 .9 5
$1 4 .7 5
$4 4 .7 2
$2 9 .80
$1 4 .9 2
$4 4 .6 6
$2 9 .9 8
$1 4 .6 8
$4 3 .3 6
$2 9 .2 2
$1 4 .1 4
$4 3 .2 1
$2 8.6 2
$1 4 .59
3 .1 88
5.3 9 8
2 .3 55
2 .3 6 5
2 .3 6 0
2 .3 7 0
9 .4 50
9 .3 4 1
0.1 09
99%
9 .6 00
3 .3 6 9
6 .2 3 1
3 5%
9 .7 00
1 .4 50
8.2 50
1 5%
$4 4 .6 8
$4 3 .00
$4 4 .03
$4 3 .00
$4 4 .3 9
$4 3 .00
Page 3 of 6
Company Report
Y ear
2014A
Y ear
2015E
Y ear
2016E
Y ear
2017 E
Cash Flow
Net incom e
DD&A
Deferred incom e taxes
Other
Cash flow from operations
$2 3 .2
1 8.6
7 .4
(2 2 .0)
2 7 .2
$1 0.2
2 9 .3
(1 .7 )
1 8.1
55.9
$4 1 .8
56 .7
0.0
0.0
9 8.5
$4 4 .0
57 .6
$51 .6
58.2
1 01 .6
1 09 .8
(3 1 .4 )
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(2 .6 )
(3 4 .0)
(2 5.8)
0.0
(3 1 1 .5)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(3 3 7 .3 )
(3 7 .6 )
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(3 7 .6 )
(3 8.4 )
(3 8.8)
(3 8.4 )
(3 8.8)
4 .6
0.0
(3 .5)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1 .1
3 50.0
(59 .7 )
(4 .8)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(6 .9 )
2 7 8.7
0.0
(4 0.0)
(4 .5)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(4 4 .5)
(50.0)
(4 .5)
(50.0)
(4 .5)
(54 .5)
(54 .5)
(5.7 )
2 1 .9
$1 6 .2
(2 .8)
1 6 .2
$1 3 .5
1 6 .4
1 3 .5
$2 9 .9
8.7
2 9 .9
$3 8.6
1 6 .5
3 8.6
$55.1
Balance Sheet
Cash & equiv alents
Certificates of deposit
Prepaid Federal incom e taxes
Accounts receiv able
Coal inv entory
Parts and supply inv entory
Other long-term assets
Total current assets
Property , plant and equipm ent, net
Inv estm ent in Sav oy
Inv estm ent in Sunrise Energy
Other
Total assets
Current portion of bank debt
Div idends pay able
Accounts pay able and accrued liabilities
Incom e taxes
Interest rate swaps, at estim ated fair v alue
Total current liabilities
Bank debt, net of current portion
Interest rate swaps, at estim ated fair v alue
Deferred incom e taxes
Asset retirem ent obligations
Other
Total liabilities
Total shareholders equity
Total liabilities & shareholders equity
$1 6 .2
0.0
4 .7
1 0.6
4 .8
2 .8
0.3
3 9 .4
1 82 .3
1 6 .7
4 .6
1 7 .4
$2 6 0.4
$1 3 .5
1 .7
5.8
2 7 .3
1 9 .7
1 4 .9
1 .6
84 .4
4 57 .6
1 3 .9
4 .8
1 8.8
$57 9 .6
$2 9 .9
1 .7
5.8
2 7 .3
1 9 .7
1 4 .9
1 .6
1 00.8
4 3 8.5
1 3 .9
4 .8
1 8.8
$57 6 .9
$3 8.6
1 .7
5.8
2 7 .3
1 9 .7
1 4 .9
1 .6
1 09 .5
4 1 9 .3
1 3 .9
4 .8
1 8.8
$56 6 .4
$55.1
1 .7
5.8
2 7 .3
1 9 .7
1 4 .9
1 .6
1 2 6 .1
3 9 9 .9
1 3 .9
4 .8
1 8.8
$56 3 .6
0.0
0.0
1 0.4
0.0
0.0
1 0.4
1 6 .0
2 1 .9
0.0
2 8.1
0.0
0.0
50.0
2 84 .5
2 1 .9
0.0
2 8.1
0.0
0.0
50.0
2 4 4 .5
2 1 .9
0.0
2 8.1
0.0
0.0
50.0
1 9 4 .5
2 1 .9
0.0
2 8.1
0.0
0.0
50.0
1 4 4 .5
4 3 .3
5.3
2 .1
7 7 .1
1 83 .3
$2 6 0.4
4 1 .6
1 2 .1
1 .6
3 89 .7
1 89 .9
$57 9 .6
4 1 .6
1 2 .1
1 .6
3 4 9 .7
2 2 7 .2
$57 6 .9
4 1 .6
1 2 .1
1 .6
2 9 9 .7
2 6 6 .7
$56 6 .4
4 1 .6
1 2 .1
1 .6
2 4 9 .7
3 1 3 .8
$56 3 .6
Page 4 of 6
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Price Chart
BB&T Capital Markets rating distribution by percentage (as of March 11, 2015):
All companies
All companies under coverage to which it has provided
under coverage:
investment banking services in the previous 12 months:
Buy (1)
44.90%
Buy (1)
23.48%
Hold (2)
54.08%
Hold (2)
20.13%
Underweight/Sell (3)
0.68%
Underweight/Sell (3)
50.00%
Not Rated (NR)
0.34%
Not Rated (NR)
0.00%
BB&T Capital Markets Ratings System:
The BB&T Capital Markets Equity Research Department Stock Rating System consists of three separate ratings. The appropriate rating is determined by a stocks estimated
12-month total return potential, which consists of the percentage price change to the 12-month price target and the current yield on anticipated dividends. A 12-month price
target is the analysts best estimate of the market price of the stock in 12 months. A 12-month price target is highly subjective and the result of numerous assumptions,
including company, industry, and market fundamentals, both on an absolute and relative basis, as well as investor sentiment, which can be highly volatile.
The definition of each rating is as follows:
Buy (1): estimated total return potential greater than or equal to 10%, Hold (2): estimated total return potential greater than or equal to 0% and less than 10%, Underweight
(3): estimated total return potential less than 0%
B: Buy H: Hold UW: Underweight NR: Not Rated NA: Not Applicable NM: Not Meaningful SP: Suspended
Stocks rated Buy (1) are required to have a published 12-month price target, while it is not required on stocks rated Hold (2) and Underweight (3).
BB&T Capital Markets Equity Research Disclosures as of March11,2015
BB&T Capital Markets makes a market in the securities of Hallador Energy Company.
BB&T Capital Markets expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Hallador Energy Company in the next three months.
An affiliate of BB&T Capital Markets received compensation from Hallador Energy Company for products or services other than investment banking services during the past
12 months. The analyst or employees of BB&T Capital Markets with the ability to influence the substance of this report know or have reason to know the foregoing facts.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
For valuation methodology and related risk factors on Buy (1)rated stocks, please refer to the body text of this report or to individual reports on any covered companies
referenced in this report.
The analyst(s) principally responsible for preparation of this report received compensation that is based upon many factors, including the firms overall investment banking
revenue.
Analyst Certification
The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his/her (their)
personal views about the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and that his/her (their) compensation was not, is not, or will not be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views contained in this research report.
OTHER DISCLOSURES
The information and statistics in this report have been obtained from sources we believe are reliable but we do not warrant their accuracy or completeness. We do not
undertake to advise the reader as to changes in figures or our views. This is not a solicitation of an order to buy or sell any securities.
BB&T Capital Markets, a division of BB&T Securities, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC, is a wholly owned nonbank subsidiary of BB&T Corporation. The securities sold, offered or
recommended are not a deposit, not FDIC insured, not guaranteed by a bank, not guaranteed by any federal government agency and may go down in value.
The opinions expressed are those of the analyst(s) and not those of BB&T Corporation or its executives.
Page 5 of 6
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET
& DEALERSHIPS/VEHICLE
DISCRETIONARY
ENERGY
Coal
Mark A. Levin
Nathan P. Martin
Garrett S. Nelson
(804) 782-8856
(804) 782-8799
(804) 787-8259
Diversified Mining
Garrett S. Nelson
Nathan P. Martin
(804) 787-8259
(804) 782-8799
FINANCIAL SERVICES
Banks/Thrifts
Blair C. Brantley, CFA
(804) 727-2604
Specialty Finance
Vernon C. Plack, CFA
Peter W. Councill, CFA
(804) 780-3257
(804) 782-8850
Building Products
Paul Betz, CFA
Commercial Durables
Matthew S. McCall, CFA
Environmental Services
Charles E. Redding
(804) 782-8853
Payton Porter
(804) 782-8820
Industrial Distribution
Charles E. Redding
Payton Porter
(804) 782-8853
(804) 782-8820
(804) 782-8811
(804) 782-2006
Industrial Machinery
C. Schon Williams
John C. Duni, CPA
(804) 782-8769
(804) 482-7111
Softline Retailers
Paul S. Alexander
Specialty/Hardlines Retailers
Anthony C. Chukumba
(212) 822-8143
Daniel J. Cannata
(212) 822-8158
Agribusiness/Consumer Foods
Brett M. Hundley, CFA
(804) 782-8753
Omar J. Mejias
(804) 775-7939
Heather L. Jones
(804) 780-3280
Paul Betz, CFA
(804) 782-8746
Food & Drug Merchandising
Andrew P. Wolf, CFA
(617) 316-1322
Jeremy Henrard
(617) 316-1321
(804) 780-3257
Supervisory Analysts
Kathleen R. Schneider
Denise Boss Tyznar
Peggy Myers Walz
(732) 567-8766
(804) 782-8880
(804) 782-8785
(804) 782-8856
(804) 782-8799
(804) 787-8259
Surface Transportation
Thomas S. Albrecht, CFA
(804) 787-8210
Willard P. Milby IV
(804) 775-7919
Aaron M. Reeves, CFA
(804) 780-3237
A. Rhem Wood Jr.
(804) 782-8784
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Director of Research
Vernon C. Plack, CFA
(617) 316-1323
TRANSPORTATION SERVICES
(804) 782-8746
(804) 780-3582
RESEARCH OFFICES
Richmond
Boston
New York