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/ 20 March - 26 March

/ Forecasting for S-1

Question 1
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Plotting model errors helps to
Select one:
a. Verify model assumptions
b. Determine whether there is a seasonal pattern
c. Determine whether there is a significant bias in errors
d. All of the above

Question 2
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Mikes Bikes, a small bicycle store, wants to forecast sales for July. The sales for the
first half of the year are:
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr

Sales
68
64
57
65

May
Jun

67
73

Using the weighted moving average forecasting method with the sum-of-digits weighting
scheme at N = 4, what are the forecast sales for July?
Select one:
a. 65.7
b.

63.0
c. 68.0
d. 65.5

Question 3
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An Italian restaurant wants to forecast pepperoni pizza sales for October. Actual
sales and forecasts for the past 3 months are shown below. The owner prefers to use
an exponential smoothing forecasting model with = 0.3. What are theforecast sales
for October?

Month

Actual Sales

June
July
Aug
Sept.

210
216
204
212

Select one:
a. 212.97
b. 211.23
c.

207.80

Forecast ( =
0.3)
208
208.6
210.82
208.77

d. 209.74

Question 4
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Mikes Bikes, a small bicycle store, wants to forecast sales for July. The sales for the
first half of the year are:
Month Sales
Jan
68
Feb
64
Mar
57
Apr
65
May
67
Jun
73
Using the four month moving average forecasting method, what are the forecast
sales for July?
Select one:
a. 65.7
b. 68.0
c. 65.5
d.

63.0
Question 5
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The coefficient of correlation expresses the degree or strength of a linear relationship.
Select one:
a. True
b. False

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/ MBA (Finance & Banking) 2014 - 15

/ MBA (Finance & Banking) - Term VI

/ POQ 612

/ 20 March - 26 March

/ Forecasting for S-1

Question 6
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An advantage of exponential smoothing over a simple moving average is that exponential smoothing
requires one to retain less data.
Select one:
a. False
b. True

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Qualitative forecasting techniques are appropriate when:

Select one:
a. The forecast has a short-term horizon
b. Little or no historical data exist
c. All of the above.
d. The environment is stable

Question 8
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Organizations use demand forecasts to plan
Select one:
a. Materials
b. Personnel
c. Facilities
d. All of the above

Question 9
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A tracking signal was calculated for a particular set of demand forecasts. This tracking signal was
positive. This would indicate that
Select one:
a. the MAD is negative
b. demand is greater than the forecast
c. demand is equal to the forecast
d. none of the above

e. demand is less than the forecast.

Question 10
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Statistical forecasting models that forecast the future values of a variable using only previous values
of that variable are:
Select one:
a. Associative models
b. Demand models
c. Causal models
d. Time series models

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/ MBA (Finance & Banking) - Term VI

/ POQ 612

/ 20 March - 26 March

/ Forecasting for S-1

Question 11
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The most commonly used criterion for evaluating the accuracy of a forecast is the mean squared
error.
Select one:
a. False
b. True

Question 12
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The component of time series models that describes any long-term upward or downward movement
over a period of time is a
Select one:
a. Seasonal component
b. Cyclical component
c. Trend component
d. Permanent component
e. Random component

Question 13
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An exponential smoothing model having a large alpha
Select one:
a. is always the most effective weighting scheme.
b. is more responsive to recent demand changes.

c. is less responsive to recent demand.

d. is not a time-series model.
e. places emphasis on the past demand data.

Question 14
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A trend projection forecasting method is a causal forecasting method.
Select one:
a. False
b. True

Question 15
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Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events.
Select one:
a. True
b. False

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/ MBA (Finance & Banking) - Term VI

/ POQ 612

/ 20 March - 26 March

/ Forecasting for S-1

Question 16
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Time-series models rely on judgment in an attempt to incorporate qualitative or subjective factors into
the forecasting model.
Select one:
a. False
b. True

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One of the benefits of using a causal forecasting model is that we are able to eliminate the impact of
random error.
Select one:
a. True
b. False

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A correlation coefficient of +0.75 implies that the forecasted variable increases as the independent
variable increases.
Select one:
a. False
b. True

Question 19
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A moving average forecasting method is a causal forecasting method.
Select one:
a. False
b. True

Question 20
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The relationship between "b" and "r" is
Select one:
a.
b. their signs must be the same
c. There is no relationship
d. the sum of their values equals zero

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/ MBA (Finance & Banking) 2014 - 15

/ MBA (Finance & Banking) - Term VI

/ POQ 612

/ 20 March - 26 March

/ Forecasting for S-1

Question 21
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The component of time series models that has a periodicity (up and down pattern) of several years is
called
Select one:
a. Cyclical component
b. Seasonal component
c. Permanent component
d. Random component
e. Trend component

Question 22
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The forecasting model that makes use of the "least squares" method is
Select one:
a. regression
b. exponential smoothing
c. moving average
d. weighted moving average

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Which of these qualitative forecasting methods would be preferred for new products/services
Select one:
a. None of the alternatives is correct
b. historical analogy and market research
c. executive committee consensus and Delphi method
d. survey of sales force and customers

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City government has collected the following data on annual sales tax collections (y)
and new car registrations (x)
y
1
1.4
1.9
2
1.8
2.1
2.3

x
10
12
15
16
14
17
20

xy
10
16.8
28.5
32
25.2
35.7
46

x Sq.
100
144
225
256
196
289
400

y Sq.
1
1.96
3.61
4
3.24
4.41
5.29

Total

12.5

104

194.2

1610

23.51

Determine the least squares regression equation.

Select one:
a. -0.16+0.13x
b. -0.13+0.16x
c. -0.16+0.19x
d. -0.19+0.13X

Question 25
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Quantitative forecasting methods incorporate the forecasters experiences, intuition, values, and
personal biases.
Select one:
a. True
b. False

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