66181075

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of UNIVERSIDAD ESAN at UNIVERSIDAD ESAN
Europe Equity Research

20 July 2010
International Power and

GDFSuez International
GSZ.PA, GSZ FP
24.32
Comparing the two businesses
IPR.L, IPR LN
317p
Yesterday morning IPR made an announcement regarding a potential

corporate combination with GDFSuez. In our view the key points from the
announcement were:
Deal structure: GDFSuez would put its international assets (outside
Europe) and certain assets in the UK and Turkey into IPR and in return IPR
would issue new shares to GDFSuez.
Retain London listing: The enlarged group would retain its listing on the
London Stock Exchange.
GDFSuez would be the majority shareholder: No details are provided
regarding what GDFSuezs stake in the combined group would be, only that
it would be a majority owner.
Electric Utilities
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

edmund.reid@jpmorgan.com
Nathalie F Casali
(44-20) 7325-9023
nathalie.x.casali@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Figure 1: IPR/ GSZ International

combined net capacity by region
Australia
8%
IPR board considering the combination: IPR's board states that the
proposed combination has strategic rationale and there would be synergy
potential.
Low CO2 intensity: Both companies have generation fleets with low CO2
intensity and the combination of the two companies would leave the
combined group well placed if there are more restrictions on CO2 worldwide.
Capacity growth: The combined entity would have 7.4GW of net capacity
under construction, providing it with 18% capacity growth over the next 4
years.
Despite the strategic logic behind the deal, today's announcement contains no
information on timeline or merger ratios and as such it remains in its
preliminary stages.
North America
32%
Latin America
17%
Our initial view is that there is considerable strategic rationale for a

transaction.
Geographical overlap: IPR and GDFSuezs international assets have a
considerable amount of overlap, specifically in the UK, North America and
Middle East.
AC
Middle East and

Asia
22%
Europe
21%
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
J.P.Morgan plc is acting as a

financial adviser to International
Power Plc on its preliminary
discussions with GDF Suez SA
regarding a possible combination
of International Power and GDF
Suez's Energy International
Business Areas (outside Europe)
and certain assets in the UK and
Turkey ("GDF Suez Energy
International"), to create an
enlarged International Power
which would be listed on the
Official List of the Financial
Services Authority ("Official List")
and traded on the Main Market of
the London Stock Exchange as
announced on 19 July 2010.
Equity Ratings and Price Targets

Company
GDF SUEZ(R)
International Power Plc(R)
Symbol
GSZ.PA
IPR.L
Mkt Cap
($ mn)
Price
Currency
EUR
GBp
Price
24.32
317
Rating
Cur
Prev
Price Target
Cur
Prev
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. (R) under applicable law and/or J. P. Morgan Chase & Co policy the recommendation
and price target for this company have been removed. All prices as of 16 Jul 10.
See page 21 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676
Company Data
Price ()
Date Of Price
52-week Range ()
Shares O/S (mn)

20 July 2010
24.32
16 Jul 10
31.34 - 22.64
2,261
GDF SUEZ (GSZ.PA;GSZ FP)

FYE Dec
Adj. EPS FY ()
EBITDA FY ( mn)
Headline EPS FY ()
Adj P/E FY
EV/EBITDA FY
Gross Yield FY
DPS (Net) FY ()
EBITDA margin FY
2009A
2.11
14,012
2.03
11.5
7.2
6.0%
1.47
17.5%
2010E
1.89
14,824
2.19
12.9
7.0
6.2%
1.50
18.4%
2011E
2.12
16,214
2.09
11.5
6.5
6.4%
1.54
19.6%
2012E
2.20
16,978
2.20
11.1
6.2
6.5%
1.59
19.3%
2013E
2.24
17,438
2.24
10.8
5.9
6.7%
1.64
19.0%
2010E
29.48
10.7
1,337
6.9
659
2011E
27.30
11.6
1,258
7.2
601
2012E
31.02
10.2
1,327
6.6
695
2013E
32.84
9.6
1,363
6.2
744
3.6
3.6
3.2
2.8
13
4.0%
13
4.0%
13
4.0%
13
4.1%
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Company Data
Price (p)
Date Of Price
52-week Range (p)
Shares O/S (mn)
317
16 Jul 10
354 - 243
1,529
International Power Plc (IPR.L;IPR LN)

FYE Dec
2009A
Adj. EPS FY (p)
33.39
Adj P/E FY
9.5
Adj EBITDA FY ( mn)
1,535
EV/EBITDA FY
6.3
Pretax Profit Adjusted FY (
718
mn)
Net Debt/EBITDA (Wrapper)
3.3
FY
DPS (Net) FY (p)
13
Net Yield FY
4.0%
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Table of Contents
Summary ...................................................................................3
Overview of the combined entity ............................................4
Geographical split ........................................................................................................4
Fuel split ......................................................................................................................5
Contract split................................................................................................................6
Assets under construction ............................................................................................7
Comparison of Financials........................................................9
Appendix 1 IPR assets ........................................................13
Appendix 2 GDF Suez International Assets ......................15
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Summary
Yesterday morning (July 19th) IPR made an announcement regarding a potential
corporate combination with GDFSuez. In our view the key points from the
announcement were:
Deal structure: GDFSuez would put its international assets (outside Europe) and
certain assets in the UK and Turkey into IPR and in return IPR would issue
shares to GDFSuez;
Retain London listing: The enlarged group would retain its listing on the
London Stock Exchange;
GDFSuez would be the majority shareholder
IPR board considering the combination: IPR's board states that the proposed
combination has strategic rationale and there would be synergy potential.
The exact text of the announcement is enclosed below.
The Board of International Power announces that it is in preliminary discussions
with GDF Suez SA ("GDF Suez") regarding a possible combination of International
Power and GDF Suezs Energy International Business Areas (outside Europe) and
certain assets in the UK and Turkey ("GDF Suez Energy International"), to create an
enlarged International Power which would be listed on the Official List of the
Financial Services Authority (Official List) and traded on the Main Market of the
London Stock Exchange. The Board of International Power believes that the possible
combination warrants consideration given the strategic rationale and potential for
synergies as a result of the combination and discussions are continuing between the
two parties regarding the terms of the proposed combination (including the amount
of net debt that would be contributed with GDF Suez Energy International). If the
combination were to be completed, it is expected that shares in International Power
would be issued to GDF Suez and that, as a result, GDF Suez would be the majority
shareholder in the enlarged International Power.
IPR and GDFSuez have previously discussed a business combination along these
lines. On 18th January 2010 IPR made an announcement stating that
it has held preliminary discussions regarding a potential combination of
International Power and certain power assets of GDF Suez S.A ("GDF Suez"). No
agreement was reached between International Power and GDF Suez and discussions
are no longer ongoing.
Yesterdays announcement provides considerably more detail regarding the potential
structure of any deal. Importantly, in our view, GDFSuez has provided new
disclosures regarding the assets which would be included in a potential transaction
with detailed financial information for the last three years. We believe that this
should allow shareholders to more closely evaluate the worth of the assets.
Our initial view is that there is considerable strategic rationale for a transaction.
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Geographical overlap: IPR and GDFSuezs international assets have a

considerable amount of overlap, specifically in the UK, North America, Middle
East and Asia;
Low CO2 intensity: Both companies have generation fleets with low CO2
intensity and the combination of the two companies would leave the combined
group well placed if there are more restrictions on CO2 worldwide;
Capacity growth: The combined entity would have 7.4GW of net capacity under
construction, providing it with 18% capacity growth over the next 4 years.
Despite the strategic logic behind the deal, yesterdays announcement contains no
information on timeline or merger ratios and as such it remains in its preliminary
stages.
Overview of the combined entity

IPR and GDF Suez International are the second and third largest Independent Power
Producers (IPPs) worldwide by gross capacity. IPR currently has 32.358 GW of
gross generation capacity and 20.671 GW of net capacity worldwide. In addition, it is
constructing 4.567 GW of gross capacity (1.452 MW of net capacity). GDF Suez
International has 32 GW of gross capacity worldwide (20.7 GW net capacity). In
addition it has 18 GW of committed development projects gross (5.97 GW net).
Figure 2: Ranking of main IPPs worldwide (gross installed capacity in GW 2)
Source: GDF Suez
Geographical split
There is considerable geographical overlap between the two companies, specifically
in North America, the Middle East, Asia and the UK. This should provide synergies
around trading and also head office costs in those geographies. Overall, we think that
a combined group would remain geographically diversified, ensuring that it was not
overly reliant on a particular region.
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Figure 3: IPR geographical split (net installed capacity) at 31

December 2009
Asia
Figure 4: GSZ International geographical split (net installed capacity)

December 2009
9%
Austrlia
North America
16%
31%
Latin America
North America
34%
32%
Middle East
12%
UK & Turkey
Europe
Middle East and
32%
Asia
Source: Company reports.
10%
Figure 5: Pro-forma combined entity net installed capacity by geography
Australia
8%
North America
32%
Latin America
17%
Middle East and

Asia
22%
Europe
21%
Fuel split
Both IPR and GDF Suez International have low CO2 intensity generation capacity.
The installed capacity of both companies is heavily weighted towards gas (61% for
IPR and 58% for GDFSuez). In addition, both companies have significant renewable
capacity which means that they are well placed to deal with tightening controls on
CO2 emissions worldwide.
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Figure 6: IPR Fuel split (net installed capacity) 31 December 2009
Oil
Wind
3.0%
Pumped Storage 6.0%
Figure 7: GSZ international assets fuel split - gross installed capacity

31 December 2009
Renew ables
Hy dro
2%
Fuel
Coal
7%
9%
0.5%
8.0%
Hy dro
24%
Coal
Gas
21.5%
61.0%
Gas
58%
Contract split
The structure of the contracts is slightly different. GDFSuez International has more
capacity under long-term contract than IPR. However, based on the proposed deal
structure announced, a combined entity should be quite evenly balanced between
long-term contracted and merchant assets. Importantly much of the exposure to
merchant markets will be in North America where electricity prices are below new
entrant levels and there have been signs of recovering demand.
Figure 8: IPR asset contract split (net capacity MW) at 31 December
2009
Figure 9: GSZ International assets contract split (gross GW) at 31

December 2009
Pumped Storage
8.0%
Long term
Merchant
contracted
34%
34.0%
Uncontracted
28.0%
Wind
Short term
IPP
6.0%
66%
contracted
24.0%

Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Assets under construction

Both companies have strong growth plans, particularly GDFSuez International which
has plans to build almost 6 GW of net capacity over the next four years. This
represents 29% of its current installed capacity. This compares to IPRs capacity
under construction, which is 1.45 GW or 7% of installed capacity.
Table 1: GDFSuez International committed projects
Country
Asset/company
Fuel
GSZ
share
Gross capacity
Latin America
Net
capacity
-
Brazil
Jirau
Hydro
4,589
2,207
50.10%
3,450
1,728
442
Estreito
Hydro
40.70%
1,086
Andrade
Sugar cane
68.70%
33
23
PCH Airea Branca
Hydro
68.70%
20
14
339
196
E-CL-CTA
Coal
52.40%
150
79
E-CL-CTA
Coal
52.40%
150
79
Laja
Hydro
100%
39
39
115
115
Alternergy and Bontex
Hydro
100%
Chile
Panama
Peru
115
115
364
225
Chilca
Natural gas
61.70%
250
154
Quitarasca
Natural gas
61.70%
114
70
5,407
2,743
Total
Middle East and Asia
Bahrain
Al Dur
Natural Gas
45.0%
1,233
555
Qatar
Ras Laffan C
Natural Gas
20.0%
2,730
546
3,821
764
Jubail Pow er Water & Co
Natural Gas
20.0%
2,091
418
Saudi Arabia
Riyadh
Natural Gas
20.0%
1,730
346
Oman
Barka 3/Sohar 2
Natural Gas
46.0%
1,440
662
Singapore
Senoko
Natural Gas
30.0%
750
225
Glow
Coal, Natural Gas
Gheco One
Coal
Shuw eihat S2
Natural Gas
Thailand
United Arab Em irates
na
1,087
427
na
na
660
na
20.0%
1,510
302
12,571
3,054
575
173
Total
North America
USA
Total
Total committed capacity as of June 2010
Astoria Energy Power Plants - Phase 2
Natural Gas
30.0%
575
173
18,553
5,970
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Table 2: International Power assets under construction

Country
Expected
completion date
% ownership
Net capacity
(MW)
Total investment
Proposed
capital structure
Contractual
position
Can$227m
(152m)
25% equity, 75%

debt
PPA 2030
Canada Wind
Canada
2010
100%
76
European Wind
Italy
2010
75%
23
Fujairah F2
UAE
2010
20%
400
Synergen
Australia
2010
100%
24
Merchant
HUBCO Narowal
Pakistan
2010
17%
36
PPA 2035
Elecgas
Portugal
2011
50%
415
580
15% equity; 85%

debt
Tolling to 2036
T Power
Belgium
2011
33%
140
448
15% equity; 85%

debt
Tolling 2026
Paiton 3
Indonesia
2012
31%
253
$1.2bn
20% equity, 80%

debt
PPA 2042
TNP2
Thailand
2012
100%
110
THB4.1bn
25% equity, 75%

debt
PPA 2037
HUBCO - Laraib
Pakistan
2013
13%
11
Total
1,452
Regulated Tariff
$2,705
20% equity, 80%

debt
PPA to 2030
PPA 2038
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Comparison of Financials
Table 3: International Power net income statement (m)
Total turnover
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
3,526
3,515
3,686
3,890
4,066
Operating Profit
North America
100
109
127
153
181
Europe
561
491
398
418
371
Middle East
Australia
Asia
51
55
56
56
57
229
226
212
232
256
18
16
16
17
17
Corporate Costs
(52)
(53)
(55)
(56)
(53)
Operating Profit
907
844
755
819
828
JV & Associates PAT

North America
34
26
27
28
28
Europe
68
47
42
43
46
Middle East
34
26
34
35
36
Australia
Asia
Total JV & Associates PAT
110
109
115
118
140
250
213
223
228
255
Profit from Operations
1,157
1,057
978
1,047
1,083
Net interest
(439)
(398)
(377)
(352)
(339)
718
659
601
695
744
718
659
601
695
745
Profit before tax (pre-exceptionals)

Exceptionals
Profit before tax
Tax on Ord. Activities
(113)
(114)
(100)
(131)
(152)
Deferred Tax
Exceptional Tax
IAS 39 mark to market
Profit after tax
605
544
501
564
594
Minority interests
(97)
(92)
(80)
(82)
(78)
Earnings
508
452
421
482
516
Dividends
(191)
(192)
(193)
(194)
(205)
317
260
228
287
310
Retained profit
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Table 4: International Power Balance sheet (m)

Total fixed assets
Inventories
Receivables & prepayments
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
11,364.0
11,404.5
11,459.0
11,522.8
11,617.1
251.0
251.0
251.0
251.0
251.0
869.0
869.0
869.0
869.0
869.0
Current liabilities
(875.0)
(874.6)
(874.6)
(874.6)
(874.6)
Net current assets
(109.0)
(108.6)
(108.6)
(108.6)
(108.6)
Total Assets
11,255.0
11,296.0
11,350.4
11,414.3
11,508.5
Net Cash/ (Debt)
(5,059.0)
(4,747.5)
(4,494.1)
(4,188.4)
(3,864.1)
Provisions for liabilities and charges
(91.0)
(91.0)
(91.0)
(91.0)
(121.0)
Deferred Taxation
(867.0)
(867.0)
(867.0)
(867.0)
(867.0)
Net assets
4,812.0
5,164.5
5,472.3
5,841.9
6,230.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Called up ordinary share capital
761.0
761.0
761.0
761.0
761.0
Share premium account
436.0
436.0
436.0
436.0
436.0
Capital and reserves
Capital redemption reserve
145.0
145.0
145.0
145.0
145.0
Capital Reserve
422.0
422.0
422.0
422.0
422.0
2,381.0
2,641.1
2,869.3
3,156.8
3,467.1
Profit and loss account

Minority Interests
Total shareholders funds
10
285.0
377.3
456.9
539.1
617.4
4,811.0
5,163.5
5,471.3
5,840.9
6,229.4
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Table 5: International Power cash flow (m)

Profit for the period
Interest expense
Tax expense
JV & Associate profit
Depreciation
Exceptional Profit
Provisions
Dividends received from JVs & Associates
Maintenance capex
Other
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
1,143.0
544.5
501.0
564.1
2013E
593.8
546.0
397.9
376.5
352.1
339.3
159.0
114.1
100.0
131.2
151.9
(276.0)
(212.8)
(222.9)
(228.3)
(254.7)
378.0
280.0
280.0
280.0
280.0
(359.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(51.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
30.0
146.0
146.0
146.0
146.0
146.0
(148.0)
(153.8)
(157.6)
(161.5)
(165.6)
(8.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(311.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Goodwill Amortisation
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Net change in intangible assets
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IAS mark to market
(Increase)/decrease in stocks
9.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(Increase)/decrease in debtors
151.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Increase/(decrease) in creditors
(59.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Cash generated from operations
1,320.0
1,116.0
1,023.1
1,083.6
1,120.7
Cash Tax
(105.0)
(114.1)
(100.0)
(131.2)
(151.9)
Cash Interest
(430.0)
(397.9)
(376.5)
(352.1)
(339.3)
785.0
603.9
546.6
600.2
629.5
Net Cash from operating activities

Growth Capex
(115.0)
(100.0)
(100.0)
(100.0)
(100.0)
Financial investments
(18.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Acquisitions & Disposals
556.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Gov grants received

Alstom compensation
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Hedging
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Cash flow pre-financing
1,208.0
503.9
446.6
500.2
529.5
Dividends paid
(195.0)
(192.4)
(193.2)
(194.5)
(205.2)
Shares issued
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(889.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(78.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Change in Liquid resources

Share buy back
Repayment of Debt by JVs & Associates
Dividends paid to minorities
New loans
Increase/ (Decrease) in Cash
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
49.0
311.5
253.3
305.7
324.3
11
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Table 6: GDF Suez international assets - financial snapshot

m
865
477
286
(48)
2008A
1,792
13%
1,007
557
268
27
(67)
2009A
1,979
10%
1,026
657
286
85
(75)
Current operating income

Latin America
North America
UK and Turkey
Other
1,219
731
335
207
(54)
1,380
861
417
189
(87)
1,423
835
423
197
51
(84)
Income from operating activities

Latin America
North America
UK and Turkey
Other
1,093
745
200
203
(54)
1,267
880
199
403
(124)
(91)
1,293
714
176
398
70
(65)
Net financial costs

Tax
Effective tax rate
Share in net income of associates
Net income
(272)
(252)
30.7%
19
589
(348)
(373)
40.6%
16
562
(334)
(329)
34.6%
18
648
Capex
Latin America
North America
UK and Turkey
621
387
180
54
-
3,276
1,189
1,022
1,041
24
2,199
1,406
376
224
193
Capital employed
Latin America
North America
UK and Turkey
6,926
2,554
2,769
1,603
-
11,006
3,506
4,788
2,473
239
13,266
5,224
4,869
2,659
514
Net debt
o/w internal financial net debt
5,113
2,970
7,662
3,274
8,872
3,548
3.2x
4.3x
4.5x
EBITDA
% growth
Latin America
North America
UK and Turkey
Other
ND:EBITDA
12
2007A
1,580
2010E
2,162
9%
1,165
724
295
53
(75)
2011E
2,367
9%
1,331
760
324
27
(75)
2012E
2,669
13%
1,444
781
492
28
(75)
2,058
1,301
842
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Appendix 1 IPR assets

Table 7: IPR asset breakdown
Location
Fuel/type
Gross
capacity
MW(1)
IPR
Ownership
(IPM
Ownership)
Net
capacity
MW
Contractual
Position
Canada
Wind
40
100%
40
Illinois
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
West Virginia
Puerto Rico
Gas
Gas (CCGT)
Gas (CCGT)
Gas (CCGT)
Gas/Oil
Gas/Oil
Coal
Gas (CCGT)
Gas (CCGT)
Gas (Cogen/CCGT)
Gas/Oil
LNG (CCGT)
303
539
488
160
616
625
667
913
1,423
440
313
548
7,075
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
50%
100%
35% (50%)
303
539
488
160
616
625
667
913
1,423
220
313
192
6,499
Regulated
Tariff
Merchant
Merchant
Merchant
Merchant
Merchant
Merchant
Contracted
Merchant
Merchant
PPA 2014
Merchant
PPA 2022
Wind
1,189
100%
1,189
ISAB
Tejo Enegia (Pego)
Turbogas
Spanish Hydro
Germany/France/Netherlands/It
aly
Italy
Portugal
Portugal
Spain
Gas (IGCC)
Coal
Gas (CCGT)
Hydro/Solar
562
628
1,008
88
34% (49%)
50%
100%
67% (95%)
193
314
1,008
58
Uni-Mar (Marmara)
Deeside
Derwent
Indian Queens
First Hydro
Rugeley
Turkey
UK
UK
UK
UK
UK
488
500
214
140
2,088
1,050
33%
75% (100%)
23% (33%)
75% (100%)
75% (100%)
75% (100%)
162
375
49
105
1,566
788
Saltend
Europe total in operation
Middle East
Hidd
UK
Gas (CCGT)
Gas (CCGT)
Gas (CCGT)
Oil (OCGT)
Pumped Storage
Coal (50 MW of
OCGT)
Gas (CCGT/Cogen)
1,200
9,155
75% (100%)
900
6,707
Merchant
1,006
40%
402
PPA 2027
Al Kamil
Oman
Gas
(CCGT)/desalination
Gas (OCGT)
276
65%
180
PPA 2017
Ras Laffan B
Qatar
1,055
40%
422
PPA 2033
Tihama
Shuweihat S1
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Gas
(CCGT)/desalination
Gas (Cogen)
Gas
(CCGT)/desalination
1,076
1,572
60%
20%
646
314
PPA 2026
PPA 2025
Umm Al Nar
UAE
Gas
(CCGT)/desalination
2,450
20%
490
PPA 2026
North America
IPR Canada Wind Portfolio
Calumet
Bellingham
Blackstone
Milford
Troy
Armstrong
Coleto Creek
Hays
Midlothian
Oyster Creek
Pleasants
EcoElectrica
North America total in operation
Europe
IPR European Wind Portfolio
Middle East total in operation

Australia
Canunda
Pelican Point
Synergen
Hazelwood
Bahrain
7,435
South Australia
South Australia
South Australia
Victoria
Wind
Gas (CCGT)
Gas/distillate
Coal
46
487
371
1,675
Regulated
Tariff
PPA 2020
PPA 2021
PPA 2024
PPA 2030 2065
PPA 2020
Merchant
PPA 2010
Merchant
Merchant
Merchant
2,454
100%
100%
100%
92%
46
487
371
1,541
PPA 2015
Merchant
Merchant
Merchant
13
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Loy Yang B
Victoria
Coal
1,026
70% (100%)
718
PPA 2016
Kwinana
Australia total in operation
Asia
Paiton
Western Australia
Gas (CCGT)
118
3,723
49% (70%)
58
3,221
PPA 2021
Indonesia
Coal
1,365
31% (45%)
423
PPA 2040
HUBCO
Pakistan
Oil
1,290
17%
219
PPA 2027
KAPCO
Pakistan
Gas / Oil (CCGT)
1,600
36%
576
PPA 2021
Gas/Oil (CCGT)
Gas (Cogen)
572
143
4,970
32,358
75%
100%
429
143
1,790
20,671
PPA 2023
PPA 2025
Uch
Pakistan
TNP (Pluak Daeng)
Thailand
Asia total in operation
TOTAL in operation around the world
14
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Appendix 2 GDF Suez Intl Assets

Country
Asset/company
Fuel
GSZ share
Tractebel Energia
Hydro, fuel oil, wind, coal, gas, wood
68.70%
E-CL
Electroandina
Eolica Monte Redondo
Hydro, fuel oil, coal, gas, diesel

Fuel oil, coal, gas, diesel
Wind
52.40%
52.40%
100%
Planta Eolica de Guanacaste
Wind
90%
Bahia Las Minas

Cativa
heavy fuel oil, diesel

Fuel oil n.6
51%
100%
Enersur
Natural gas, heavy fuel oil
61.70%
Jirau
Estreito
Andrade
PCH Airea Branca
Hydro
Hydro
Sugar cane
Hydro
50.10%
40.70%
68.70%
68.70%
E-CL-CTA
E-CL-CTA
Laja
Alternergy and Bontex
Chilca and Quitarasca
Coal
Coal
Hydro
Hydro
Natural Gas/Hydro
52.40%
52.40%
100%
100%
61.7%
Litoral gas
Gas distribution
64%
1701km of pipeline
Mejillones
LNG terminal
50%
Distrinor
Gas exploration, distrib and trading
52%
Operational by 2010, 5.5mcm/day

1045km of piplines, 8mcm/day
n/a
TGP
Gas transportation
8%
Ventus - Norway
Ventus - West Cape
West Windsor Power
Ventus - Caribou
Wind
Wind
Natural Gas
Wind
100.0%
100.0%
96.1%
100.0%
Tractebel Energia
Natural Gas
100.0%
Astoria Energy Power plant -Phase

1
Choctaw
College Park Energy
Colorado Energy Power Co.
Ennis- tractabel Power Co.
FirstLight
Hawkins Point Energy Services
Hopewell Cogeneration
Hot Spring Power Company
North Jersey Energy Associates
Nothereastern Power Company
Pinetree Power
Ryegate Associates
Shreveport Red Rivers Utilities
Natural Gas
58.5%
Natural Gas, Lignite

Natural Gas
Coal, Biogas
Natural Gas
Hydro, Coal, Kerosene
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Waste anthracite
Wood
Wood
Natural Gas
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
50.0%
100.0%
100.0%
66.9%
39.2%
Existing power generation assets Latin America

Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
Panama
Peru
Total existing Latin America
Committed power generation projects Latin America
Brazil
Chile
Panama
Peru
Total committed Latin America
Non power generation assets Latin America
Argentina
Gross capacity
(MW)
Net cap.
(MW)
7,378
7,378
1,729
653
1,038
38
50
50
324
241
83
1,043
1,043
10,524
5,069
5,069
924
342
544
38
45
45
206
123
83
644
644
6,887
2,207
1,728
442
23
14
196
79
79
39
115
225
2,743
4,589
3,450
1,086
33
20
339
150
150
39
115
364
5,407
Chile
Gasoductor Norandino
Peru
Existing power generation assets North America
Canada
Mexico
USA
729km of pipelines
319
9
99
112
99
279
279
6,775
575
315
9
99
108
99
279
279
6,079
336
1,186
27
45
343
1,538
10
365
746
287
51
56
20
1,186
27
45
343
1,538
10
365
746
144
51
56
13
15
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
SUEZ Energy BioPower

Asset/company
Natural Gas, Wood

Fuel
100.0%
GSZ share
Gross capacity
SUEZ - DEGS
Syracuse Energy Corporation
Tractebel Northeast Generation GP,
Inc - Bellingham
Trigen
Viking Energy
Wharton County Generation
Winooski One Partnership
Wise County Power Company
Natural Gas, Coal

Coal
Natural Gas
100.0%
100.0%
248
65
304
Net
capacity
65
304
Natural Gas, Fuel Oil

Wood
Natural Gas
Hydro, Coal, Kerosene
Natural Gas
100.0%
100.0%
50.0%
100.0%
56
33
67
7
746
7,373
33
67
4
746
6,672
Natural Gas
30.0%
575
173
575
173
Country
Total existing North America

Committed power generation projects North America
USA
Astoria Energy Power Plants Phase 2
Total committed North America
Non power generation assets North America
USA
Boston
Neptune (under construction
Canada
Noverco
GDFQ
Mexico
Gas distribution companies
Gas transportation companies
Existing power generation assets Middle East & Asia
Bahrain
Al Ezzel Pow er Company B.S.C.
Al Hidd (Phase 1-2)
China
Zhenjiang Hongshun Thermal Plant
Laos
Houay Ho Pow er Company
Oman
Al-Rusail
Sohar Pow er Company SAOC
Barka 2 combined cycle
Singapore
Senoko
Thailand
Glow
Turkey
Baymina Enerji AS
United Arab Emirates
Gulf Total Tractebel Pow er Company
Saudi Arabia
Jubail Pow er and Water Company
Total existing Middle East & Asia
Committed power generation assets Middle East & Asia
Bahrain
Al Dur
Qatar
Ras Laffan C
Saudi Arabia
Jubail Pow er Water & Co, Riyadh
Singapore
Senoko
Thailand
Glow
Gheco One
United Arab Emirates
Shuw eihat S2
Total committed Middle East & Asia
Non power generation assets
Thailand
PTTNGD
LNG terminal
LNG terminal
Energy transport and distribution
Gas distribution
Gas distribution
100.0%
100.0%
17.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Coal
Hydro
45.0%
30.0%
27.4%
69.8%
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Fuel Oil, Natural Gas
Natural Gas, Coal
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
47.5%
45.0%
47.5%
30.0%
69.1%
95.0%
20.0%
19.8%
Total existing UK and Turkey

Non power generation assets
Turkey
TOTAL INSTALLED
TOTAL COMMITTED
Source: Company reports .
16
Izgaz
Overall transportation
1,892
954
938
24
153
1,928
665
585
678
3,300
1,708
763
1,592
660
711
429
281
7
107
901
316
263
322
990
1,180
725
318
131
11,996
5,063
1,233
2,730
3,821
750
1,087
427
660
1,510
12,571
555
546
764
225
0
na
na
302
3,054
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
45.0%
20.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Coal, Natural Gas

Coal
Natural Gas
na
na
20.0%
Gas distribution
40.0%
na
Natural gas
Natural gas
Wind
Retail
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100%
2,105
1,875
210
20
n/a
2,105
Existing power generation assets UK & Tukey

UK
Teesside
Shotton
Scotia
GDF Suez Energy UK
6.85 bcm p.a.
Gas distribution
90%
2900km network
31,998
18,553
2,105
1,875
210
20
2,105
20,727
5,970
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
JPM Q-Profile
GDF Suez S.A. (FRANCE / Utilities)
As Of: 16-Jul-2010
Quant_Strategy@jpmorgan.com
Local Share Price
Current:
25.33
12 Mth Forward EPS
Current:
2.10
3.50
50.00
45.00
3.00
40.00
2.50
35.00
30.00
2.00
25.00
1.50
20.00
15.00
1.00
10.00
0.50
5.00
Earnings Yield (& local bond Yield)

12%
12Mth fwd EY
Current:
France BY
8%
Implied Value Of Growth*
Current:
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
Jun-95
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
0.00
Jun-95
0.00
-3.89%
0.50
Proxy
0.40
10%
0.30
8%
0.20
0.10
6%
0.00
4%
-0.10
2%
-0.20
PE (1Yr Forward)
Current:
12.0x
18.0x
Current:
PBV hist
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Price/Book Value
3.0x
16.0x
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
Jun-95
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
-0.30
Jun-95
0%
0.9x
PBV Forward
2.5x
14.0x
12.0x
2.0x
10.0x
1.5x
8.0x
6.0x
1.0x
4.0x
0.5x
2.0x
ROE (Trailing)
Current:
7.59
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
Current:
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
Jun-95
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
0.0x
Jun-95
0.0x
6.26
7.0
50.00
45.00
6.0
40.00
5.0
35.00
30.00
4.0
25.00
3.0
20.00
15.00
2.0
10.00
1.0
5.00
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
Jun-95
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
0.0
Jun-95
0.00
Summary
GDF Suez S.A.
FRANCE
Utilities
12mth Forward PE
P/BV (Trailing)
ROE (Trailing)
Implied Value of Growth
72368.35
176.6164 SEDOL
B0C2CQ3
Multi-Utilities
Latest
Min
12.04x
9.04
0.93x
0.86
6.26
0.00
7.59
7.59
-3.9%
-0.26
Max
16.75
2.49
6.31
47.46
0.31
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, J.P. Morgan Calcs
Median
13.40
2.01
3.17
15.26
0.15
Average
13.23
1.76
3.55
17.01
0.13
2 S.D.+
16.52
2.82
6.88
36.49
0.39
2 S.D. 9.95
0.70
0.22
-2.47
-0.14
% to Min
-25%
-7%
-100%
0%
-558%
As Of:
Local Price:
EPS:
% to Max % to Med
39%
11%
167%
116%
1%
-49%
526%
101%
903%
486%
16-Jul-10
25.33
2.10
% to Avg
10%
89%
-43%
124%
431%
* Implied Value Of Growth = (1 - EY/Cost of equity) where cost of equity =Bond Yield + 5.0% (ERP)
17
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
JPM Q-Profile
International Power PLC (BRITAIN / Utilities)
As Of: 16-Jul-2010
Quant_Strategy@jpmorgan.com
Local Share Price
Current:
3.20
12 Mth Forward EPS
Current:
0.29
0.70
6.00
0.60
5.00
0.50
4.00
0.40
0.30
3.00
0.20
2.00
0.10
1.00
0.00
12Mth fwd EY
9%
Implied Value Of Growth*
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
Jun-95
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Current:
US BY
Current:
-14.14%
Jun-09
25%
Jun-07
Earnings Yield (& local bond Yield)
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
-0.10
Jun-95
0.00
0.80
Proxy
0.60
20%
0.40
0.20
15%
0.00
-0.20
10%
-0.40
-0.60
5%
-0.80
Current:
23.90
40.00
1.1x
Current:
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
PBV Forward
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-10
Jun-08
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-97
Jun-98
Current:
PBV hist
Jun-95
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
0.0x
Jun-04
0.0x
Jun-03
0.5x
Jun-02
1.0x
5.0x
Jun-01
10.0x
Jun-00
1.5x
Jun-99
2.0x
15.0x
Jun-98
20.0x
Jun-97
2.5x
Jun-96
25.0x
Jun-95
3.0x
ROE (Trailing)
Jun-96
Price/Book Value
Jun-97
11.0x
Jun-95
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Current:
30.0x
Jun-96
PE (1Yr Forward)
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
-1.00
Jun-95
0%
4.17
45.0
40.0
30.00
35.0
20.00
30.0
25.0
10.00
20.0
0.00
15.0
10.0
-10.00
5.0
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
Jun-95
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
0.0
Jun-95
-20.00
Summary
International Power PLC
BRITAIN
Utilities
12mth Forward PE
P/BV (Trailing)
ROE (Trailing)
Implied Value of Growth
7480.34
26.121 SEDOL
0632016
Independent Power Producers &
Latest
Min
Max
10.97x
4.76
24.66
1.07x
0.52
2.79
4.17
0.00
39.63
-13.42
37.21
23.90
-14.1%
-0.87
0.61
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, J.P. Morgan Calcs
18
Median
10.65
1.40
2.49
18.17
-0.03
Average
11.07
1.53
5.60
15.04
-0.05
2 S.D.+
19.40
2.68
22.85
36.49
0.67
2 S.D. 2.73
0.39
-11.66
-6.41
-0.77
% to Min
-57%
-52%
-100%
-156%
-518%
As Of:
Local Price:
EPS:
% to Max % to Med
125%
-3%
160%
30%
850%
-40%
56%
-24%
530%
81%
* Implied Value Of Growth = (1 - EY/Cost of equity) where cost of equity =Bond Yield + 5.0% (ERP)
16-Jul-10
3.20
0.29
% to Avg
1%
43%
34%
-37%
63%
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
GDF SUEZ: Summary of Financials

Profit and Loss Statement
in millions, year end Dec
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
Valuation ratios
FY13E in millions, year end Dec
Sales
EBITDA
Gross Operating Profit
Depreciation & Amortisation
Operating Profit
Associate Income
Net Interest
Profit before tax
Income Tax
Minority Interests
Group Net profit
79,908
14,012
14,012
5,183
8,347
403
1,266
6,547
1,719
753
4,478
80,640
14,824
14,824
5,618
8,732
425
1,626
7,485
2,088
847
4,976
82,897
16,214
16,214
5,995
9,724
413
1,758
7,607
2,434
828
4,758
87,798
16,978
16,978
6,219
10,255
421
1,828
8,128
2,682
869
4,998
91,567
17,438
17,438
6,380
10,538
429
1,811
8,428
2,865
888
5,104
FY09
14,012
(1,377)
1,988
13,627
-8,369
-8,369
(4,028)
-4,091
10,426
6,398
FY10E
14,824
(1,638)
(171)
12,587
-9,228
-9,228
(3,950)
-5,576
10,781
6,831
FY11E
16,214
(2,226)
(385)
13,505
-8,666
-8,666
(4,023)
-5,781
11,892
7,868
FY12E
16,978
(2,682)
(346)
13,843
-7,701
-7,701
(4,155)
-5,983
12,669
8,514
Cashflow statement
EBITDA
Cash Tax Payable
Working Capital
Cash flow from operations
Capex & Acquisitions
Cash from investing
Dividends paid
Cash from financing
Free Cash flow before dividends
Free Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E
Non Current assets
122,278 127,290 130,467 132,396
Current assets
49,146 47,145 46,872 48,484
Total assets
171,424 174,435 177,338 180,880
Total Debt
42,272 43,105 43,105 43,105
Shareholders' equity
65,527 67,761 69,752 72,252
Other liabilities
29,838 30,288 30,496 30,496
Total liabilities
171,424 174,435 177,338 180,880
Net debt
29,967 32,532 33,960 33,801
Capital Employed
89,038 94,537 97,600 99,417
P/E (recurrent)
P/E (reported)
Price to book value
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
13.5
12.0
0.3
7.2
12.0
9.9%
5.2%
15.1
11.1
0.3
7.0
11.8
10.6%
5.3%
13.4
11.6
0.3
6.5
10.8
12.2%
5.4%
13.0
11.1
0.3
6.2
10.2
13.2%
5.6%
12.7
10.8
0.3
5.9
9.7
13.0%
5.8%
Per share
FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E

Recurrent EPS
2.11
1.89
2.12
2.20
2.24
Reported EPS
2.03
2.19
2.09
2.20
2.24
Reported DPS
1.47
1.50
1.54
1.59
1.64
FY13E Adjusted Free cash flow
2.92
3.02
3.48
3.77
3.70
17,438
(2,865) Performance, leverage and return ratios
(218) %
14,231
-6,085 Gross operating margin
17.5% 18.4% 19.6% 19.3% 19.0%
-6,085 Operating margin
10.4% 10.8% 11.7% 11.7% 11.5%
(4,275) Operating profit growth y-o-y
-2.5%
4.6% 11.4%
5.5%
2.8%
-6,085 Recurrent Income growth y-o-y
-1.5%
-7.6% 12.1%
3.7%
2.1%
12,632 Reported ROE
7.4%
8.0%
7.4%
7.6%
7.5%
8,358 ROCE (EBIT)
9.4%
9.2% 10.0% 10.3% 10.6%
Net debt/ (equity+minorities) (%)
45.7% 48.0% 48.7% 46.8% 42.5%
Net debt /EBITDA
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.8
EBITDA / net interest
11.1
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.6
FY13E Reported net income / dividends
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
132,491
51,662 Market valuation
184,153 in millions
43,105
74,691 Share price (year-end / current)
24.32
30,496 Number of Shares (million)
2,261.0 2,261.0 2,261.0 2,261.0 2,261.0
184,153 Market Capitalisation
64,370 64,370 64,370 64,370 64,370
31,741 EV adjustment
51,085 53,819 55,248 55,088 53,029
99,399 EV
100,435 103,170 104,598 104,439 102,379
19
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
International Power: Summary of Financials

Profit and Loss Statement
Valuation ratios
FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E in millions, year end Dec
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
Sales
3,526
3,515
3,686
3,890
4,066 P/E (recurrent)
- P/E (reported)
9.5
10.7
11.6
10.2
9.6
Depreciation & Amortisation
378
280
280
280
280 Price to book value
Operating Profit
907
844
755
819
828 EV/EBITDA
6.3
6.9
7.2
6.6
6.2
0 EV/EBIT
10.6
11.0
12.0
10.7
10.1
FY13E
Gross Operating Profit
Associate Income
Net Interest
Profit before tax
Income Tax
Minority Interests
Discontinued items
Group Net profit
(439)
(398)
(377)
(352)
718
659
601
695
(113)
(114)
(100)
(131)
(97)
(92)
(80)
(82)
508
452
421
482
(339) FCF yield (pre divs, post mins) (%)

745 Dividend yield (%)
(151)
(78) Per share
-
516
Cashflow statement
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
Recurrent EPS
33.39
29.48
27.30
31.02
32.84
Reported EPS
33.39
29.48
27.30
31.02
32.97
Reported DPS
13
13
13
13
13
FY13E
FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Adjusted Free cash flow

Funds from operations
Working Capital
101
0 Performance, leverage and return ratios
Cash flow from operations
629
1,116
1,023
1,084
Capex & Acquisitions
441
-100
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
Other investing cash flows
- Gross operating margin
Cash from investing
- Operating margin
-7.0% -10.6%
8.5%
1.1%
Dividends paid
1,119 %
(195)
(192)
(193)
(194)
Cash from financing
(205) Operating profit growth y-o-y

- Recurrent Income growth y-o-y
Free Cash flow before dividends
- Reported ROE
Free cash flow, adjusted
- ROCE (EBIT)
Net debt/ (equity+minorities) (%)
Balance Sheet
Net debt /EBITDA (%)
EBITDA / net interest

FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Reported net income / dividends
Net fixed assets

Current assets
Total assets
Total Debt
Shareholders' equity
Other liabilities
- Market valuation
10.5%
-
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.1%
4.6%
4.0%
-99.3% -85.7% -75.8% -65.6% -56.4%

3.3
3.6
3.6
3.2
2.8
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
11,255 11,296 11,350 11,414 11,509 in millions

-
4,811
5,163
5,471
5,841
6,229 Share price (year-end / current)

- Number of Shares (million)
317
1,521.3 1,533.7 1,543.7 1,553.7 1,563.7
Total liabilities
(6,154) (5,842) (5,589) (5,283) (4,989) Market Capitalisation
Net debt
-5,059
-4,747
-4,494
Capital Employed
9,871
9,912
9,966 10,030 10,095 EV
9,598
9,286
9,033
8,727
8,403
20
FY13E
-4,188
-3,864 EV adjustment
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
Analyst Certification:
The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily
responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with
respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report
accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research
analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the
research analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures
Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: JPMSL and/or an affiliate is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in GDF SUEZ,
International Power.
Analyst Position: The following analysts (and/or their associates or household members) own a long position in the shares of
International Power: Richard Stuber.
Client of the Firm: GDF SUEZ is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPMSI; during the past 12 months, JPMSI provided to the
company investment banking services, non-investment banking securities-related services and non-securities-related services.
International Power is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPMSI; during the past 12 months, JPMSI provided to the company
non-investment banking securities-related services and non-securities-related services.
Investment Banking (past 12 months): JPMSI or its affiliates received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking
services from GDF SUEZ.
Investment Banking (next 3 months): JPMSI or its affiliates expect to receive, or intend to seek, compensation for investment
banking services in the next three months from GDF SUEZ, International Power.
Non-Investment Banking Compensation: JPMSI has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other
than investment banking from GDF SUEZ, International Power. An affiliate of JPMSI has received compensation in the past 12
months for products or services other than investment banking from GDF SUEZ, International Power.
Broker: J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. and/or an affiliate acts as Corporate Broker to International Power.
GDF SUEZ (GSZ.PA) Price Chart

Date
72
60
N 33
48
Price()
Rating Share Price

()
Price Target
()
02-Sep-09 N
28.86
33.00
19-Feb-10
27.20
33.00
OW
OW 33
36
24
12
0
Sep
06
Jun
07
Mar
08
Dec
08
Sep
09
Jun
10
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
Break in coverage Jul 22, 2008 - Sep 02, 2009. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the
current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweight, N = Neutral, UW = Underweight.
21
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
International Power (IPR.L) Price Chart

Date
798
OW 520p
684
OW 540p
OW 360p
N 345p
OW 370p
N 340p
570
OW 410pOW 470p
Price(p)
OW 539.99p OW 400p
OW 350p
OW
456
342
228
114
0
Feb
07
May
07
Aug
07
Nov
07
Feb
08
May
08
Aug
08
Nov
08
Feb
09
May
09
Aug
09
Nov
09
Feb
10
May
10
Rating Share Price

(p)
Price Target
(p)
07-Mar-07 OW
376
410
01-Aug-07 OW
414
470
02-Jul-08
OW
436
540
16-Jul-08
OW
419
540
08-Sep-08 OW
363
520
17-Nov-08 OW
263
400
16-Jan-09 OW
257
370
19-Mar-09 OW
210
360
20-Jul-09
251
350
OW
01-Mar-10 OW
324
--
26-Mar-10 N
330
340
08-Jul-10
315
345
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
Break in coverage Jul 11, 2008 - Jul 16, 2008, and Feb 26, 2010 - Mar 01, 2010. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's
continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweight, N = Neutral, UW = Underweight.
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:

J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the
average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve
months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams)
coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of
the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] J.P. Morgan Cazenoves UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research
analysts use the same rating categories; however, each stocks expected total return is compared to the expected total return of the FTSE
All Share Index, not to those analysts coverage universe. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analysts teams
coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying
analyst(s) coverage universe.
Coverage Universe: Edmund Reid: Centrica (CNA.L), Drax (DRX.L), International Power (IPR.L), National Grid (NG.L),
Pennon (PNN.L), Scottish & Southern Energy (SSE.L), Severn Trent (SVT.L), United Utilities (UU.L)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2010
JPM Global Equity Research Coverage

IB clients*
JPMSI Equity Research Coverage
IB clients*
Overweight
(buy)
46%
49%
44%
68%
Neutral
(hold)
42%
46%
48%
61%
Underweight
(sell)
12%
31%
9%
53%
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.

For purposes only of NASD/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold
rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category.
Valuation and Risks: Please see the most recent company-specific research report for an analysis of valuation methodology and risks on
any securities recommended herein. Research is available at http://www.morganmarkets.com , or you can contact the analyst named on
the front of this note or your J.P. Morgan representative.
Analysts Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon
various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which
include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking.
22
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
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23
Edmund Reid
(44-20) 7155 6676

20 July 2010
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Europe Equity Research

International Power and

Comparing the two businesses

Yesterday morning IPR made an announcement regarding a potential

(44-20) 7155 6676

Figure 1: IPR/ GSZ International

Our initial view is that there is considerable strategic rationale for a

Middle East and

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

J.P.Morgan plc is acting as a

Equity Ratings and Price Targets

Europe Equity Research

GDF SUEZ (GSZ.PA;GSZ FP)

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

International Power Plc (IPR.L;IPR LN)

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Europe Equity Research

Europe Equity Research

Geographical overlap: IPR and GDFSuezs international assets have a

Overview of the combined entity

Source: GDF Suez

Europe Equity Research

Figure 3: IPR geographical split (net installed capacity) at 31

Figure 4: GSZ International geographical split (net installed capacity)

Middle East and

Source: Company reports.

Source: Company reports.

Figure 5: Pro-forma combined entity net installed capacity by geography

Middle East and

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Europe Equity Research

Figure 6: IPR Fuel split (net installed capacity) 31 December 2009

Figure 7: GSZ international assets fuel split - gross installed capacity

Source: Company reports.

Source: Company reports.

Figure 9: GSZ International assets contract split (gross GW) at 31

Source: Company reports.

Europe Equity Research

Assets under construction

PCH Airea Branca

Alternergy and Bontex

Jubail Pow er Water & Co

Coal, Natural Gas

United Arab Em irates

Astoria Energy Power Plants - Phase 2

Source: Company reports.

Europe Equity Research

Table 2: International Power assets under construction

25% equity, 75%

15% equity; 85%

15% equity; 85%

20% equity, 80%

25% equity, 75%

20% equity, 80%

Europe Equity Research

JV & Associates PAT

Profit from Operations

Profit before tax (pre-exceptionals)

IAS 39 mark to market

Profit after tax

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Table 4: International Power Balance sheet (m)

Net current assets