NBC

News Online Poll: Public Opinion on 2016 Presidential Primaries

Embargoed for release after 4:00 PM Friday, April 10, 2015

Democratic Voters Overwhelmingly Predict

Hillary Clinton Will Win Nomination;
Republicans Less Unified on Eventual Nominee

The 2016 presidential race is finally getting its official candidates. On the Republican
side, Rand Paul jumped into the race on Tuesday, Ted Cruz announced his candidacy
two weeks ago, and Marco Rubio is expected to announce on Monday. On the
Democratic side, Hillary Clinton will officially announce on Sunday what everyone has
expected for a long time.

We expect a lot of volatility in polling this far ahead of actual primaries and caucuses,
particularly on the Republican side. Levels of support will likely bounce around as the
candidates start to become better known by the American people.

So in addition to asking the traditional vote question, the latest NBC News Online Survey
conducted by SurveyMonkey asked Americans whom they expected would win their
partys nomination. Voters who identified as Democratic or who lean toward the
Democratic Party are much more unified. More than two-thirds of Democratic voters
say Hillary Clinton will clinch the nomination.

Democratic &
Who would
Who do you
Democratic-Leaning Voters you vote for? expect to win?
Hillary Clinton
50%
68%
Elizabeth Warren
16
1
Joe Biden
7
5
Bernie Sanders
5
1
Martin OMalley
2
-
Jim Webb
1
-
Someone else
1
1
Wouldnt vote/Dont know
19
23
No answer
1
1


On the GOP side, Jeb Bush emerges as the expected leader, with 24 percent of
Republican and Republican-leaning voters saying he will win, regardless of whom they
support. But another 37 percent of Republican voters say they dont know who will win.



Republican &
Who would
Who do you
Republican-Leaning Voters you vote for? expect to win?
Scott Walker
13%
8%
Jeb Bush
12
24
Chris Christie
8
5
Ted Cruz
7
8
Rand Paul
7
7
Ben Carson
7
1
Mike Huckabee
6
3
Marco Rubio
6
3
Rick Perry
3
3
John Kasich
2
1
Bobby Jindal
1
-
Lindsey Graham
1
1
Someone else
5
2
Wouldnt vote/Dont know
21
37
No answer
2
2


Scott Walker and Jeb Bush head up the lengthy list of Republican primary contenders,
with Walker getting 13 percent support and Bush getting 12 percent among Republican
and Republican-leaning voters. But their levels of support are not significantly different
from the names that follow. More than 1 in 5 Republican voters say they dont know or
wouldnt vote for one of the candidates listed.

TOPLINES

[ASK OF REPUBLICANS AND LEAN REPUBLICANS]

REPPRIM. Here is a list of possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president in 2016. If
the 2016 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom
would you vote? [RANDOMIZE 1-12]


4.6-8.15
Jeb Bush
12%
Ben Carson
6%
Chris Christie
7%
Ted Cruz
7%
Lindsey Graham
1%
Mike Huckabee
6%
Bobby Jindal
1%
John Kasich
3%
Rand Paul
7%
Rick Perry
3%
Marco Rubio
6%
Scott Walker
12%
Wouldnt vote/ Dont know
22%
Someone else (please specify)
4%
No answer
2%



RWINP. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you expect to win the Republican nomination for
president in 2016?



4.6-8.15
Jeb Bush
23%
Ben Carson
1%
Chris Christie
4%
Ted Cruz
8%
Lindsey Graham
1%
Mike Huckabee
3%
Bobby Jindal
0%
John Kasich
1%
Rand Paul
6%
Rick Perry
3%
Marco Rubio
3%
Scott Walker
8%
Dont know
37%
Someone else (please specify)
1%
No answer
2%

[ASK OF DEMOCRATS AND LEAN DEMOCRATS]

DEMPRIM. Here is a list of possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. If
the 2016 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom
would you vote? [RANDOMIZE RESPONSES]


4.6-8.15
Joe Biden
6%
Hillary Clinton
47%
Martin OMalley
2%
Bernie Sanders
5%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Jim Webb
1%
Wouldnt vote/Dont know
22%
Someone else (please specify)
1%
No answer
1%

DWINP. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you expect to win the Democratic nomination
for president in 2016?


4.6-8.15
Joe Biden
5%
Hillary Clinton
65%
Martin OMalley
0%
Bernie Sanders
1%
Elizabeth Warren
3%
Jim Webb
0%
Dont know
25%
Someone else (please specify)
1%
No answer
1%

METHODOLOGY

The NBC News-SurveyMonkey Poll was conducted online April 6-8, 2015 among a
national sample of 2,052 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability
survey were selected from among those who have volunteered to participate in the
SurveyMonkey Contribute panel. This SurveyMonkey Audience project was run using a
balanced sample. The process of sample balancing starts by setting targets for desired
numbers of completed responses among certain groups (in this case: by gender, age,
and race groupings). After that, a specified number of potential respondents are
allocated to the project based on expected completion rates. Panelists are either linked
directly to the survey from an email invitation, or routed to the survey after agreeing to
take an additional survey after completing a prior one. Once the survey is put into the
field, the system calculates actual completion rates by group, and uses that information
to re-adjust the flow of new panelists to the survey.

SurveyMonkey panelists are emailed no more than once every three days, and on
average panelists receive one email every two weeks. SurveyMonkey also imposes a
daily limit on the number of surveys a panelist can take.

Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education and region using
the Census Bureaus American Community Survey, along with data from the Kaiser
Health Tracking Poll on evangelicalism to reflect the demographic composition of the
U.S.. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation
rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All
surveys and polls may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited
to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error.

To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a
bootstrap confidence interval, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 1000
independent samples and calculate the standard deviation of the weighted average
using those samples, producing an error estimate.

When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be
taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes
into account the margin of sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they
support Candidate A and 43 percent of voters support Candidate B, and the error
estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, Candidate A could be supported by as
low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as high as 47 percent of
support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead."

The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that
has been calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is
expected to have close to an even split in most groupings (gender):

Group
Unweighted N
Plus or minus
Total sample
2052
3.0 percentage points



Republican
424
6.3 percentage points
Democrat
798
4.7 percentage points
Independent
796
4.6 percentage points



18-29
315
7.5 percentage points
30-44
376
6.2 percentage points
45-59
754
4.5 percentage points
60+
607
5.3 percentage points



White
1383
3.8 percentage points
Black
204
9.0 percentage points

Hispanic
Other

317
148

7.2 percentage points

12.3 percentage points