Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2000
2005
2013
2014 (Proj)
Remarks
Substantially higher growth
trajectory
5.0
4.0
6.7
7.8
US$ bn
16.6
24.4
67.2
77.0
Unemployment
7.6
7.2
4.4
4.0
Steady progress
6.2
11.0
6.9
5.0
% of GDP
6.4
2.7
3.9
2.1
Remittances
US$ bn
1.2
2.0
6.4
7.0
FDI Inflows
0.2
1.0
0.3
2.7
1.4
7.5
1.9
8.3
1.7
3.7
5.0
5.2
US$ bn
US$ bn
Months of
Imports
Rs./US$
75.8
100.5
129.1
130.2*
Budget Deficit
% of GDP
9.5
7.0
5.9
5.2
Public Debt
% of GDP
96.9
90.6
78.3
74.3
12.9
19.1
16.7
14.0
No.
448
1,922
5,913
6,814*
Rs. bn
88.8
584.0
2,459.9
2,857*
000
400
549
1,275
1,593
Tourist Arrivals
Steady growth
indicates year
Source: Road Map, 2014
30
Average inflation
over past 65
months 5.9 %
25
20
15
%
10
5
0
Mar-14
Apr-13
May-12
Jun-11
Jul-10
Aug-09
Oct-07
Sep-08
Nov-06
Jan-05
Dec-05
Feb-04
Apr-02
Mar-03
May-01
Jul-99
Jun-00
Aug-98
Oct-96
Sep-97
Nov-95
Jan-94
Dec-94
-5
High
inflation
High
fiscal
deficit
High
interest
rates
Low
investor
confidence
High debt
levels
Low
Growth
Sluggish
investment
Real
interest
rates
Low fiscal
deficits
Enhanced
savings
Low debt
levels
Sustained
growth
Regular
pipeline of
investments
$4,240
(Projected)
$3,280
$2,836
$981
2011
2016
2015
2013
2003
GDP US$ 18.9 bn
$4,825
(Projected)
GDP
GDP
$ 88.7 bn
$ 101.8 bn
what will
look like?
Sri Lanka: 2020 would have a GDP around US$ 150 bn,
a US$ 7,000+ per capita income, and sound
macroeconomic fundamentals
Economic growth averaging around 8% from 2015 onwards
Inflation at the lower end of mid-single digits
Poverty at very low levels, with abject poverty having been eradicated
Unemployment limited to standard unemployment levels
A debt to GDP level around 50%
Current account at surplus with foreign reserves growing faster
A Sri Lankan rupee that has appreciated gently over the years, from 2015 to
2020
Sri Lankan ports and airports among the more popular and busy international
ports and airports in the region
Productivity levels improved to higher levels with better skilled labour force
Advanced technology used in industry, supported by an intelligent work force
Strong work ethic being practiced by a large segment of the work force
10
60.0
58.0
58.1
33.3
32.0
31.1
29.7
6.7
10
10.0
10.8
20
40.6
30.7
28.7
30
12.7
35.9
40
Services
19.1
Per cent
50
45.0
60
Industry
57.6
Agriculture
0
1950
1977
2009
2013
12
Agriculture
Agriculture
Fishing
Forestry
Livestock
Industry
Mining and Quarrying
Apparel
Other Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas and Water
Oil and Gas Exploration
Marine and Aquatic Resources
Technology and Innovation
Construction
Services
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Hotels and Restaurants
Transport
Banking
Communication and IT
Insurance
Real Estate
Healthcare
Entertainment
Education Services
Ownership of Dwellings
Government Services
Private Services
13
Less than 1%
Less than 3%
Less than 3%
100%
100%
90%
Above 80 yrs. for both male and female
Additional 311 km
To be initiated in 2015
All weather roads with 100% rural accessibility
8% of GDP
0.5% of GDP
Tourism services
IT/BPO services
Aviation services
Maritime services
Knowledge economy services
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
(Proj)
2016
(Proj)
2020
(Proj.)
% of GDP
US$ bn
Item
2013
2016
Merchandise Exports
of which
Tea
Rubber
Textiles & Garments
Rubber products
Gems, Diamonds & Jewellery
10.4
15.9
21.4
1.5
0.1
4.5
0.8
0.4
2.2
0.2
5.6
1.2
1.0
2.5
0.3
8.0
1.5
1.5
Services Exports
of which
Earnings from tourism
Port and Airport related services
IT/BPO services
Oil and Gas
4.7
9.3
12.3
1.7
1.0
0.6
-
4.1
1.5
1.0
0.5
6.0
2.0
2.0
3.0
Workers remittances
Foreign Direct Investment
Long term loan inflows
Government
Private sector
6.4
1.4
8.3
2.8
10.5
4.3
1.6
0.7
2.2
1.0
2.7
1.2
15
2020
What needs
to be done?
16
Unit
2009
2014
2016
2020
3.5
7.8
8.3
8.0
2,057
3,719
4,825
7,500
Real Sector
GDP Growth
Per Capita GDP at Market Prices
%
US$
5.9
6.0
5.0
4.5
Unemployment
5.8
4.0
4.0
3.0
% of GDP
24.4
31.0
33.1
36.5
% of GDP
-7.4
-9.5
-7.2
-4.5
US$ bn
9.0
17.6
25.2
33.6
US$ bn
11.7
23.2
29.5
37.3
% of GDP
-0.5
-2.1
0.1
0.5
US$ bn
2.7
1.7
2.9
3.0
Budget Deficit
% of GDP
9.9
5.2
3.8
3.0
Government Debt
% of GDP
86.2
74.3
65.0
50.0
Gross Investment
External Sector
Trade Gap
17
Upgrading of domestic
airports
Trincomalee Port-related
industries and Port City
Colombo as a regional
logistics and services hub
18
19
2013
2014
129
2020
122
116 120
136 133
132 130
108
89 83 85
20
Doing Business
Survey
Sri Lanka(B+/B1/BB-)
2011
Indonesia(BB+/Baa3/BBB-) Bangladesh(BB-/Ba3/-)
2012
2013
India(BBB-/Baa3/BBB-)
2020
130 130 132
107
116 115
97
Philippines(BB/Ba3/BB)
108
115
107
97
81
30
The Index of
Economic
Freedom
Sri Lanka(B+/B1/BB-)
India(BBB-/Baa3/BBB-)
Philippines(BB/Ba3/BB)
BBB-
BBB
BB-
BB
2014
2016
2018
2020
Fitch
BBB-
BBB
B+
BB
2014
2016
2018
2020
S&P
Ba2
Baa3
Baa2
B1
2014
2016
2018
2020
Moodys
20
The ongoing consolidation process would result in Sri Lankan financial institutions
transforming towards being stable, large scale, globally competitive financial institutions
2016 Targets
2020 Targets
Capital would need to be more competitive, and Sri Lanka would need to offer a safe
environment with reasonable returns
Public debt issuance would need to be streamlined with new issuances, also focused on
developing the capital markets and supporting investment requirements of
superannuation funds of the country
21
22
23
FDI
Capital inflows: portfolio and government securities
Commercial borrowings
Bilateral funding opportunities
Investment treaties and investments with counterpart
governments
24
25
26
27
28
29
This
To-Do List
is a
formidable one,
30
31
Middle Income
Lower
Middle
Income
4,085
1,035
Low
Income
Congo,
Dem. Rep.
(230) India Philippines
(1,580) (2,500)
Thailand
(5,210)
Upper Middle
Income
High Income
12,615
South
Africa
(7,610)
Malaysia
(9,820)
Chile
(14,310)
Rep. of
Korea
(22,670)
Switzerland Bermuda
(104,590)
(80,970)Norway
(98,860)
As proposed by the CCC Chairman at the 175th Anniversary Celebration, that vision must also now enter
the board rooms of Chamber members
32