Improved Adaptive Capacity To Climate Change For Sustainable Livelihoods in The Agriculture Sector - 2010

ComprehensiveDisasterManagementProgramme(CDMP)
ImprovedAdaptiveCapacitytoClimateChangeforSustainableLivelihoodsinthe
AgricultureSector(PhaseII)
Final Report
Adaptive Learning in Climate Risk Management:

Reflections on Capacity Building of Livelihoods
Adaptation to Climate Change (Phase-II) in
Bangladesh
March, 2010
Submitted by:
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
(ADPC) Thailand
Project Implementing Partners:

Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)
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AsianDisasterPreparednessCenter
FinalReport
ComprehensiveDisasterManagementProgram(CDMP)
ImprovedAdaptiveCapacitytoClimateChangeforSustainableLivelihoodsinthe
AgricultureSector(PhaseII)
FinalReport
AdaptiveLearninginClimateRiskManagement:
ReflectionsonCapacityBuildingofLivelihoodsAdaptationto
ClimateChange(PhaseII)inBangladesh
Preparedby:
AtiqKainanAhmed
ProjectImplementingPartners:
DepartmentofAgriculturalExtension(DAE)
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)
AsianDisasterPreparednessCenter(ADPC)
March,2010
Submittedby:
AsianDisasterPreparednessCenter(ADPC)
Bangkok,Thailand
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TableofContent
Chapter1.
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................6
1.1
Background ....................................................................................................................................................6
1.2
ADPCsupport................................................................................................................................................6
1.3
Structureofthereport ..................................................................................................................................7
Chapter2.
Whatislikelytobechanginginfuture? ......................................................................................8
2.1
Analysisoffutureanticipatedrisks ...........................................................................................................9
2.2
Uncertaintiesinpredictionanddownscaling.........................................................................................18
Chapter3.
ClimateForecastApplications:wherearewenow? ................................................................19
3.1
Nationalleveldevelopments.....................................................................................................................19
3.2
Locallevelinitiatives ..................................................................................................................................28
3.2.1
Initiative1:CyclonePreparednessProgrammeinthecoastalzoneofBangladesh..............28
3.2.2
Initiative2:BWDBsCFISCFABinitiativeforriverineflood...................................................30
3.2.3
Initiative3:RiverbankerosionpredictioninitiativeofBWDBJMREMP ...............................31
3.2.4
Initiative4:DroughtassessmentandplanningusingDRASmodel .......................................33
3.2.5
Initiative5.BMDsagrometeorologicalforecasting ..................................................................34
Chapter4.
CapacityBuildingExperiences:agrowingneedatalllevels ................................................37
4.1
Localleveltrainingsonclimatechangeandadaptation ......................................................................38
4.1.1
Scheduleoftrainingevents.............................................................................................................38
4.1.2
Trainingdeliverymodalityandparticipants...............................................................................39
4.1.3
Resourcepersons ..............................................................................................................................39
4.1.4
Trainingdeliveryexperiences ........................................................................................................39
4.1.5
Module1:IcebreakerexerciseonClimatechange.....................................................................40
4.1.6
Module1:LectureonFundamentalsofClimateChange ..........................................................41
4.1.7
Module1:Lectureonclimateforecastapplicationsandanexercise.......................................41
4.1.8
Module2:LectureonClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptation.............................................42
4.1.9
Module3:Exerciseontheevaluationofadaptationmeasures ................................................45
4.1.10
Outputsoftheadaptationoptionevaluationresults .................................................................46
4.1.11
MinitalkoninnovativeCCA .....................................................................................................48
4.1.12
Learningoutcomes ...........................................................................................................................48
4.2
NationalleveltrainingandlearningonClimateForecastApplications ...........................................49
4.2.1
Targetparticipants ...........................................................................................................................50
4.2.2
Trainersandresourcepersons .......................................................................................................50
4.2.3
TechnicalSessionI:EarlywarningandProbabilisticForecastSystems .................................51
4.2.4
TechnicalSessionII:CFA,AdaptivePractices&DecisionMaking ........................................53
Chapter5.
Reflectionsandrecommendations...............................................................................................55
5.1
Recommendationsfromlocalleveltrainings .........................................................................................55
5.2
RecommendationsfromtheNTWIGleveltrainingevent ...................................................................56
Annexes ..............................................................................................................................................................................58
Annex1.Reflectionsofparticipationinthefourtrainingsatlocallevel ...........................................................59
Annex2.ReflectionsofparticipationandlearninginNational(i.eNTWIG)level. ........................................62
Annex3.Somerelevantreferencematerials ...........................................................................................................63
Annex4:Listofparticipantsinfourlocalleveltrainingsessions......................................................................65
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ListofTables
Table21.Summeryofchangesofrainfall(%)intheSWregion(forLACCIIarea)............................................ 9
Table22.Projectedmaximumandminimumtemperature(C)withobservedvalues....................................... 10
Table23.SummeryofchangesoftemperaturesinSWregion(forLACCIIarea). ............................................ 11
Table24.ProjectedInundatedArea(morethan30cm)inthecoastaldistrictsfordifferentSLR. .................... 12
Table25.Area(Ha)tobeinundatedduetoSLRinMonsoonandDrySeasoninvariousyear. ...................... 12
Table26.Changesinfreshandbrackishwaterarea(Ha)indryandmonsoon. ................................................. 14
Table27.Thestormsurgeintrusionlength(xinkm),fordifferentcoastalzonesofBangladeshforMax.and
Min.SRESA2andB1for2020sand2050s.(LACCIIpilotareasareunderzone5)............................................ 16
Table28.Asummaryofkeyclimaticparametersandanticipaedchangesatnationallevel. ........................... 17
Table31.VariouslocallevelclimatichazardrelatedEWinitiativesdevelopedinthecountry. ...................... 28
Table32.AcomparativeoverviewofthevarioushydrometrologicalhazardsEWinBangladesh................ 35
Table41.Localleveltrainingscheduleforfourevents............................................................................................ 38
Table42.SessiondetailsofthelocalleveltrainingbyADPC. ................................................................................ 40
Table43.Adaptationmeasuresasclassifiedbytheparticipantsfromtheirevaluations. ................................. 46
ListofFigures
Figure21.Threefigures:A2(SRESA2Emission)rainfallscenariosgeneratedbyPRECISinyear2030,2050
and2070.(Source:BUET,Nov.2008). .......................................................................................................................... 10
Figure22.Threefigures:A2(SRESA2Emission)maximumtemperaturescenariosgeneratedbyPRECISin
year2030,2050and2070(Source:BUET,Nov.2008). ............................................................................................... 11
Figure23.(threefigures).ProjectedinundationforSLR15cm(B1),27cm(A2)and62cm(A2)(Source:
DEFRA,2007).................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Figure24.ProjectedPolderinundationduetoembankmentovertoppingforA2scenario62cmSLR. .......... 14
Figure25.Maximumsalinityintrusionindryseasonfor62cmSLR;figureshows5pptsalinefront
movement;greenlineforbasecondition(2005)&bluefor62cmSLR................................................................... 15
Figure26.ChangesincycloneHighRiskAreasforcurrentconditions,the2020sandthe2050s.Onlyworst
caseexamplesincludedhighestwarming. ............................................................................................................... 16
Figure31.BMDWebsite. ............................................................................................................................................... 20
Figure32.FFWCWebsitethatupdatesdailyfloodforecastinformation............................................................. 21
Figure33.FFWCoperationalsystemnetwork. ......................................................................................................... 21
Figure34.FFWCdailyactivityflowchart.................................................................................................................. 22
Figure35.ExistingFloodWarningProductDisseminationRoutes. ..................................................................... 23
Figure36.LocalleveldisseminationsystemoftheCPP.......................................................................................... 29
Figure37.TheinstitutionalsetupofCPP. .................................................................................................................. 29
Figure38.CFIS/CFABinformationflowanddisseminationprocess. ................................................................... 30
Figure39.CFIS/CFABinformationflowanddisseminationprocessusingflaghoisting.................................. 31
Figure310.ErosionpredictionandvulnerabilityassessmentmaterialsbyBWDB. ........................................... 32
Figure311.ConceptualframeworkofDRASmodel. ............................................................................................... 33
Figure312.BMDsagrometeorologicalbulletinfor7daystimeperiod............................................................. 34
Figure41.DGDAEisaddressingtheparticipantsduringtheADPCandLACCIIprojectfacilitated
ClimateForecastApplicationtrainingandlearningeventinDhakaon15October,2009. .............................. 49
Contributions:
ThisreportispreparedbyAtiqKainanAhmedtakingvariouslevelsofinputsduringcourseof
theprojectfromDrJayaramanPotty,DrAbuWaliRaghibHassan,SanjibSaha,ARSubbiahand
DrStephanBaas.
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Chapter1. Introduction
1.1
Background
The Livelihoods Adaptation to Climate Change Phase II (LACC II) project aims to introduce,
improve or further strengthen disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation capacities
for sustainable livelihoods and food security in the rural sectors including crops, livestock,
fisheries and forestry and other key factors of rural livelihoods in drought prone and coastal
regionsofBangladesh.
Buildingonandusingthehumanresourcesandcapacitiesofseveraltechnicaldepartments,the
project,ledbytheDepartmentofAgriculturalExtension,will(i)furtherstrengtheninstitutional
andtechnicalcapacitiesforimprovedadaptationtoclimatevariabilityandchangeatallrelevant
levels,addressingclimateinformationneeds,knowledgegaps,keyskillsandcompetencies,and
technologyneeds,and(ii)implementinaparticipatorywayandjointlywithlocalcommunities
good practices and strategies to effectively address climate variability and change, and related
naturaldisasters.
1.2
ADPC support
Under the project, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) has provided support to the
LACC II Project Management Unit (PMU) and DAE in building capacity of the local level
professionals in climate change and livelihoods based climate change adaptive capacity in the
agriculture sector. The ADPC input to the LACCII project can be broadly indicated into
followingthreedifferentareas:
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Capacity building of DAE staffs, NTWIG members and project professionals in

fundamentalsofclimatechangeandclimateforecastapplications
Initiateandupgradeaproactivelearningenvironmentandworkingrelationshipamong
DAEandothernationalhydrometeorologicalinformationsourceagencies;and
Compile analysis of future climatic risk related information in the project situation
assessmentreportforthecoastalzoneareas.
The present report will provide details of these activities as well as the gradual learning
experiencesfromtheseareaswhereADPCprovidedinputstotheoverallLACCIIinitiative.
1.3
Structure of the report
The present report is structured in following five chapters. In the Chapter 1m the project
backgroundandtheADPCsupporttotheLACCIIprojectisoutlinedinanintroductorymanner.
TheChapter2talksaboutthecontextsinamannerwherereadercangetinformationonwhatis
likely to be changing in future in Bangladesh and in particular in the southern part of coastal
pilotupazilasofLACCIIproject.
The Chapter 3 provides a status description of various Climate Forecast Applications in

Bangladeshandtriestosituatewherearewenow?
In the Chapter 4, the ADPC inputs to the Capacity Building Experiences under the project is
outlinedindetailedmanner.
ThefinalChapterofthedocumentsthekeyreflectionsandrecommendationsemergedfromthe
ADPCinputandLACCIIcapacitybuildingexperiencesingeneral.
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Chapter2. Whatislikelytobechanginginfuture?
ThepresentChapterprovidesasynopticanalysisofvarioustypesoffutureanticipatedrisksthat
arelikelytomakeimpactsindifferenttimescalesoverthecountryingeneralandoverthecoastal
areas of Bangladesh where the LACCII pilot areas are situated. Data and information various
secondarysources of relatedparameters withvaried scalesranging from regional,national and
subnational scales are reviewed for framing up the future anticipated risks of the LACCII
projectpilotareas.
There is a host of studies available that talks about the future and anticipated climatic risks of
Bangladeshandthecoastalzoneinagenericmannerbutoftenthesepublicationsareverymuch
based on a quite limited number of original research works. In the present Chapter, thereby, a
focused concentration is given to a core set only recently published original research works.
SomeofthedatathatarepublishedfromauthenticsourcesaretherebyusedinthisChapter.
ForunderstandingthepattersofrainfallandtemperatureinfuturecontextsthePreparationof
Lookup Table and generation of PRECIS scenarios for Bangladesh (November, 2008) study
reportsubmittedbyBangladeshUniversityofEngineeringandTechnology(BUET)isconsulted
with other relevant reports. This report is also published jointly from the Climate Change Cell
(CCC), DoE. The UK IDS supported ORCHID report titled Piloting Climate Risk Screening in
DFIDBangladesh:DetailedResearchPublication(IDS:April2007)isalsoconsultedforbringing
someadditionallatestinformation.
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The Sea Level Rise (SLR) and water salinity related information are adopted from a latest
available(June2007)studytitledInvestigatingtheImpactofRelativeSeaLevelRiseonCoastal
CommunitiesandtheirLivelihoodsinBangladeshUKDepartmentforEnvironmentFoodand
Rural Affairs carried out by two lead Bangladesh government
trustagencies:InstituteofWaterModeling(IWM)andCenterfor
EnvironmentandGeographicInformationServices(CEGIS).
2.1
Analysis of future anticipated risks
2.1.1
RainfallandTemperature
The regional climate modeling system PRECIS (Providing

REgionalClimatesforImpactsStudies)hasrecentlybeenmodel
runtoprojecttherainfallandtemperaturesituationsforfuture.
InarecentstudycarriedbyBUET(BUET,Nov.2008)projections
for rainfall and temperature in 2030, 2031, 2050, 2051, 2070 and
2071 has been generated using ECHAM4 SRES A2 emission
scenarios as the model input. PRECIS model run has provided
results for the whole country based on the BMD observation
LACC-II coastal pilot areas falls inside the
SW region and BMD observations sites.
areas and region. The LACCII project pilot upazilas fall under
theSouthwestRegion(SW)fromthisgridtherebytheresultscan
justifiedforthepilotupazilas.
Rainfall
The PRECIS model sets a figure of 6.78 mm/d for the annual average rainfall in the baseline
period(19611990)inthecountry.PRECISmodelresultsindicatethattheannualaveragerainfall
inyear2030willbe6.93mm/d,inyear2050itwillbe6.84mm/d,and7.17mm/dintheyear2070.
An important finding was that in Bangladesh, the average rainfall during monsoon and post
monsoon periods will increase whereas in dry season it will remain close to historical amount.
Rainfallduringthepremonsoonperiodisanticipatedtofluctuateindifferentyearsaswell.
ThePRECISmodeloutputsindicatedthatthemonsoonrainfallwillbeincreasedinallyearsand
from2051toonwardsitssurplusamountislarge.Itwillremainalmostsamein2030and2050.
Importantly,largeamountofrainfallisprojectedinAugustforallyearsexceptitsdeficitin2030.
Intermsofpercentageofchangesofrainfallfromtheobservedbaselineperiod,thisislikelyto
increaseabout4%(in2030),2.3%(in2050)and6.7%(in2070)inthecountryingeneral.Someof
themodelresultsareshowninthefollowingtableandinthemodelrunscenarios.
Table 2-1. Summery of changes of rainfall (%) in the SW region (for LACC-II area) .
SW
BD
2030
DJ
F
3.6
8.7
MA
M
JJA
S
2.9
5.5
4.1
3.8
2050
O
N
19.
8
16.
6
Ann
.
DJ
F
MA
M
JJAS
2070
ON
Ann.
DJF
MA
M
JJAS
ON
Ann.
2.0
4.1
6.3
5.8
17.0
0.2
1.3
7.7
3.9
17.7
7.6
4.0
4.7
3.5
3.0
14.5
2.3
1.8
7.4
4.6
13.2
6.7
Source:AdaptedfromBUET(Nov.2008).Note:LACCIIcoastalupazilasfallsunderSWregion.
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Figure 2-1. Three figures: A2 (SRES A2 Emission) rainfall scenarios generated by PRECIS in year
2030, 2050 and 2070. (Source: BUET, Nov. 2008).
Temperature
The monthly average maximum temperature in the country, as per the latest PRECIS model
results,willchangefrom1.2C(baselineyear19611990)to4.7Cin2030,to2.5Cin2050andto
3.0Cin2070.Maximumtemperaturewillincreaseduringmonsoonperiodanditwilldecrease
inotherperiods.
Ontheotherhand,monthlyaverageminimumtemperaturewillincreaseinallperiodsandvary
from0.3to2.4Cin2030,from0.2to2.3Cin2050andfrom0.6to3.3Cin2070.Largeincrease
of temperature is the clear indication of global warming. The observed period (year 19611990)
wasalsoconsideredasbaselineforalltemperatureparametersunderthePRECISmodeling.
The projected results for the maximum and minimum temperature (C) in various months,
anticipatedchanges(%)inthreeprojectedyearsandinareas(BDcomparedwithSW)areshown
in comparison with the observed baseline period below. The model run scenarios for the
maximumtemperatureinthreefuturescenariosarealsoshowngraphically.
Table 2-2. Projected maximum and minimum temperature (C) with observed values.
DJF
MAM
JJAS
ON
Annual
ObservedTemperature(C)in
baselineperiod(19611990)
Max.temp.
Min.temp.
26.66
32.48
31.16
30.07
30.18
14.11
22.44
24.44
21.13
21.14
Max.
temp.
26.64
32.27
32.45
29.62
30.48
2030
Min.temp.
14.76
23.65
27.22
21.83
22.31
ProjectedTemperature(C)
2050
Max.
Min.temp.
temp.
26.73
14.70
32.25
23.78
32.05
27.48
29.72
22.32
30.38
22.51
Max.
temp.
26.73
32.16
32.18
29.64
30.39
2070
Min.
temp.
14.55
24.08
27.67
22.15
22.57
Source:AdaptedfromBUET(Nov.2008).
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Table 2-3. Summery of changes of temperatures in SW region (for LACC-II area).
2030
Maximum
Temperatur
eChange
(C)
Minimum
Temperatur
eChange
(C)
MA
M
2050
JJA
S
ON
Ann
.
DJ
F
DJ
F
SW
0.12
0.09
0.30
0.90
0.06
BD
0.03
0.16
0.23
0.52
0.02
SW
0.01
0.40
0.62
0.33
0.36
0.05
0.25
BD
0.13
0.48
0.64
0.05
0.37
0.03
0.23
MA
M
JJA
S
2070
Ann
.
O
N
DJ
F
0.21
0.07
0.95
0.14
0.27
0.10
0.44
0.01
0.35
0.76
0.90
0.43
0.08
0.59
0.52
0.74
0.44
0.44
0.19
0.35
MA
M
JJA
S
O
N
Ann
.
0.06
0.26
0.85
0.13
0.20
0.20
0.50
0.02
0.71
1.45
0.29
0.56
0.86
1.30
0.24
0.64
Source:AdaptedfromBUET(Nov.2008).Note:LACCIIcoastalupazilasfallsunderSWregion.
Figure 2-2. Three figures: A2 (SRES A2 Emission) maximum temperature scenarios generated by
PRECIS in year 2030, 2050 and 2070 (Source: BUET, Nov. 2008).
One of themajor conclusionscamefrom the PRECISresultsisthat thevariation of rainfall and

temperature(maximumandminimum)inalocationoverBangladeshandinaparticularmonth
isquitelargethantheseasonalorannualaverage.Thefollowingmodelresultdiagramscanbe
comparedwiththereferenceofthebaselineperiodspecifiedintheabovetable.
2.1.2
SeaLevelRise(SLR)
Thethreatofsealevelrisespansanenormousrangeofpossibleimpactsfromtherelativelysmall
andmanageabletothecatastrophicinthecountry.Bangladeshcoasthasbeenidentifiedasone
amongst27countries,whicharethemostvulnerabletotheimpactsofglobalwarminginduced
acceleratedsealevelrise.
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InastudycarriedoutbytheUKDepartmentforEnvironmentFoodandRuralAffairs(DEFRA,
June 2007) has made a detailed assessment of the potential impacts of relative sealevel rise
(resultingfromglobalclimatechange,changesinriverflowandcoastaldevelopment)oncoastal
populations, socioeconomic impacts on livelihoods of coastal communities of Bangladesh. The
studyhasconsideredthesealevelrise,changesinintensityofcyclonesandprecipitationforboth
low(B1)andhigh(A2)greenhousegasemissionscenariosaccordingtothe3rdIPCCpredictions.
ThestudyareacoverstheLACCIIprojectpilotareasandtheconclusionsaresignificantforthe
four pilot upazilas of the project. Some of the physical impacts of SLR identified for the
Bangladeshcoastareasfollows:
Table 2-4. Projected Inundated Area (more than 30cm) in the coastal districts for different SLR.
District
TotalArea
(km2)
Khulna
Pirojpur
Allcoastal
districts
4394
1308
47194
Baseline
year2005
(km2)
2137
735
17240
InundationareaforSLR(km2)
2080
2050
B1[15cm]
A2[27cm]
2219
2380
858
940
18685
19722
2080
A2[62cm]
2459
1034
21839
2080
A2[62cm+10%rainfall]
2465
1071
22717
Source:AdaptedfromDEFRA(June,2007)
ProjectedinundationresultsfortheanticipatedSLR15cm(B1scenario),27cm(A2scenario)and
62cm (A2 scenario) are shown in the following three maps. In all the scenarios, the LACCII
projectpilotupazilasarelikelytobeinundatedunderthesealevelrise.
DEFRA study results showed that about 13% more area (469,000 ha) will be inundated in
monsoondueto62cmsealevelriseforhighemissionscenarioA2inadditiontotheinundated
areainbasecondition(followingTable).Themostvulnerableareasaretheareaswithoutpolders
likePatuakhali,Pirojpur,Barisal,Jhalakati,Bagerhat,Narail.Duetoincreasedrainfallinaddition
to62cmsealevelrise,theinundatedareawillbeincreasedandabout16%(551,500ha)morearea
willbeinundatedintheyear2080.Onthecontrary,inthedryseasondueto62cmsealevelrise
about364,200ha(10%)moreareawillbeinundated(inundationmorethan30cm)forA2scenario
in the year 2080. However, 15cm sea level rise has insignificant impact on inundation in dry
season.
Table 2-5. Area (Ha) to be inundated due to SLR in Monsoon and Dry Season in various year.
Source:DEFRA,2007.
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Figure 2-3. (three figures). Projected inundation for SLR 15cm (B1), 27cm (A2) and 62cm (A2)
(Source: DEFRA, 2007).
Drainagecongestion/waterlogging
About 25 polders (i.e. circular dykes that are constructed in the coastal areas in the 1960s to
protectcoastalareasfromsalinewaterandtoreclaimforriceproduction)inthesouthwestregion
may experience severe drainage congestion due to 62 cm sea level rise and 13 polders
embankmentwillbeovertoppedduetoincreasedwaterlevelintheperipheralrivers.Duetothe
overtopping of the embankment about 120,200 ha of these polders will be deeply inundated
(more than 60cm) whereas in base condition inundated area is only 42,200ha. About 32% more
areawillbedeeplyinundatedduetoovertoppingofembankment.TheLACCIIcoastalupazilas
arelikelytofacesuchdrainagecongestionandwaterlogginginfuturesituation.
Polder/dykeovertopping
Sealevelriseandpotentiallyhigherstormsurgeislikelytoresultinovertoppingofsalinewater
behindtheembankmentsofthepolders.ModelingresultsfroIWM(underDEFRAstudy)shows
thatfor62cmsealevelriseforA2scenarioshowsthat13poldersmaycauseinundationdueto
overtoppingoftheembankmentsfor62cmsealevelrise,asshowninfollowingFigure.Dueto
theovertoppingoftheembankmentabout120,200haofthesepolderswillbedeeplyinundated
(more than 60cm) whereas in base condition inundated area is only 42,200ha. About 32% more
areawillbedeeplyinundatedduetoovertoppingofembankment.SomeoftheLACCIIcoastal
upazilasfallintothesepotentiallyovertoppedpolders.
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Figure 2-4. Projected Polder inundation due to embankment overtopping for A2 scenario 62cm SLR.
2.1.3
WaterSalinity
AspertheDEFRA(June,2007)study,salinityisanticipatedtointrudemorelandwardspecially
duringdryseasonduetosealevelrise.Consequentlybrackishwaterareawouldincreaseandit
is seen that sea level rise of 27 cm causes 6% increase of brackish water areacompared to base
condition.Aboutanadditionalareaof327,700hawouldbecomehighsalinewaterzone(>5ppt)
during dry season due to 60 cm sea level rise. In the monsoon about 6% of sweet water area
(276,700ha)will belost. Impact of15cmsealevel rise onsalinity intrusionunder low emission
scenarioB1intheyear2080isinsignificant.
Table 2-6. Changes in fresh and brackish water area (Ha) in dry and monsoon.
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Figure 2-5. Maximum salinity intrusion in dry season for 62cm SLR; figure shows 5ppt saline front
movement; green line for base condition (2005) & blue for 62cm SLR.
Source:DEFRA(June,2007).
The above figure suggests that the LACCII project upazilas under Khulna districts will be
affectedbysalinityinthedryseasonquiteheavily.
2.1.4
ChangesinStormSurgeandIncursion
TheIDSORCHIDstudyin2007hasmadeanattempttoestimatefuturewindvelocityandsurge
height for the Bangladesh coast following the above methods; empirical response functions
betweentemperatureandwindspeedandwindspeedandsurgeheight.
Theresultsshowthatincreasesinwindvelocityrangefrom3%to12%bythe2020sandfrom4%
to20%bythe2050s.Stormsurgeheightsincreasefrom15%to25%(2020s)and32%(2050s)due
to increases in temperature. Changes in surge intrusion length (x in km), for different coastal
zones of Bangladesh are also estimated in Table with the highest temperature changes for the
2020sand2050s(i.e.worstcase).
TheLACCIIcoastalpilotareasresidesintheZone5(BargunatoSymnagar)andshowsstorm
surge intrusion length maximum of 43.38km in 2020 and 46.63km in SRES A2 Scenario and
40.01kmand45.20kminSRESB1Scenario.
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Table 2-7. The storm surge intrusion length (x in km), for different coastal zones of Bangladesh for
Max. and Min. SRES A2 and B1 for 2020s and 2050s. (LACC-II pilot areas are under zone-5).
Source:IDS(April,2007).
The study also showed that (following figure) that the existing cyclone High Risk Area (HRA)
moves further inland with the distance varying between zones according to their physical
characteristics. Increases in the wind velocity and storm surge height result in greater inland
intrusionandanincreaseintheareaexposedtocyclonehazard.TheHRAincreaseto35%and
40% in the2020and2050respectively. The LACCII project coastalpilotupazilasalso reside in
thisandwillfacethesimilarrisk.
Figure 2-6. Changes in cyclone High Risk Areas for current conditions, the 2020s and the 2050s. Only
worst case examples included highest warming.
Source:IDS(April,2007).
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Table 2-8. A summary of key climatic parameters and anticipaed changes at national level.
Climateparameter
Futureclimatescenarios
Confidenceinprojection
Increasing
Warmerinallseasons.
Highconfidence,good
temperatures
Higheraveragetemperatureslikelytobe agreementbetweenclimate
associatedwithincreaseinextremehigh models.
temperatures.
Seasonaldifferences:tendencyforwetter Mediumconfidence,less
Changein
agreementbetweenclimate
monsoon(JJA),drierdryseasons(DJF)
rainfall
modelsondirectionand
Changesintheupstreambasinregion
amounts/
magnitudeofchange.
andBangladeshbroadlysimilar.
distribution
Needtoconsiderarangeof
outcomes:dry,averageand
wet(modestaverage
changes,widerange
betweendryandwet).
Mediumconfidence.
Mostmodelsindicatewettermonsoon
Changing
conditions.Likelytobeassociatedwith
rainfall
higherrainfallintensitiescausinghigher
intensities
peakflowsinriversandincreasesin
floodmagnitude/frequency.
Noclearsignalofchangesinvariability
inmonsoonrainfall.
Asforrainfallabove.Likely
Droughts
Givenreductionsinmeandryseason
tobeaprobleminareas
rainfallitislikelythatdryspellsmay
alreadyaffectedbydrought.
increase/lengthenwithnegative
consequencesforwateravailability/soil
Mediumconfidence.
moisture.
Highertemperatureswillcontributeto
increasedevaporationlosses,likelyto
worsensoilmoisturedeficits.
Cycloneand
InconclusiveIPCC2001concludedthat Lowconfidence,evidence
Stormsurge
thereissomeevidencethatregional
pointstowardssome
frequenciesoftropicalcyclonesmay
increasein
changebutnonethattheirlocationswill frequency/intensity.
change.Thereisalsoevidencethatthe
peakintensitymayincreaseby5%and
10%precipitationratesmayincreaseby
2030%.
Sealevelrise
IPCCranges;
Highconfidence,butwide
(including
2030s;4.523cm(14cmusedbyNAPA3) rangeinestimates,
sedimentation
2050s;6.544cm(32cmusedbyNAPA) dependingonemission
andsubsidence
scenarioandscientific
effects)
uncertainties.Regional/local
situationalsoimportant.
Source:AdoptedfromIDS(April,2007).
17
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2.2
Uncertainties in prediction and downscaling
As indicated in the beginning of the chapter this the scope of this analysis is to come up with
generic indications of the future anticipated risks that will impact the country as well as the
LACCII project pilot areas in the coastal zone. In this regard, the core and latest research
findingsarelookedatandpresentedbrieflyinthischapter.However,inreviewingandfindings
informationforthelocationspecificriskinformationitwasfoundthatthePRECISmodelresults
are primarily developed based on the BMD observation areas and their operational regions
wheretheyhaveclimaticstationdata.
TheLACCIIprojectpilotupazilasfallundertheSouthwestRegion(SW)fromthisgridthereby
theresultsforSWareconnotedfortheLACCIIpilotprojectareas.Independentanalysisforthe
LACCII upazilas is quite difficult at this point using the existing model run results such as
PRECIS.Atthispoint,verylittlehistoricaldataisavailablethatcanallowcomprehensiveclimate
modeling for the LACCII project upazilas. Thereby keeping these limitations in mind the
attempthasbeenmadetosynergizeanalyticalconnotationsorreferencesfortheLACCIIproject
areas. However, the upazila based analysis on the following chapter may also give some local
specificindications.
ThePRECISandothermodelresultsallowcomingupwithsomeindicationfortheregionbutas
theyhavealsoindicatedintheirreportthattheclimaticvariablesarecomplicatedvariablesand
themodelrunparametersarelimitedaswell.Inthisline,fewsetoflimitationscanbeidentified:
a)locationspecificlimitations;
b)modelinguncertainties;and
c)datareliability.
Consideringtheseaboveareasoflimitations,themodelresultspresentedinthischapterbrings
somesynergicinformationwhichmightbeusefulforfuturisticpolicymakinginagriculturaland
allied sectors. However, the operational uses, these information and results can only provide a
guidance which can lead to general adaptation strategy development. This perhaps one of the
reasonsforscopingfutureconcreteparticipatoryandtechnicalclimatechangerelatedassessment
at local level. In this respect, more downscaled analysis of climate change situations should
accommodateandbuildonwhatlocalleveldataisavailableandmakinginnovativeattemptof
livelihoodsbasedparticipatoryanalysis.
One issue needs to be kept in mind that from the national level climatic model run results one
cannotanticipateallthelocalorlocationspecificriskssincethelocationspecificdifferencesare
quite large at the same time the downscaled with appropriate scale model results are just not
available with adequate accuracy. For operational recommendation making and framing
livelihoodsadaptation,however,boththesetsofexercises:a)modelingoffuturerisks;andb)the
continuedanalysisofthepresentsituationshouldbeusedinamutuallyinclusivemanner.
Thisshouldbeseenratherasatwostreamsofthesameendeavorwheretechnicaldownscaling
ofclimaticriskanalysisshouldimprovebetterandthegradualupscalingoflocalparticipatory
risk assessments will shape up to inform the adaptation preferences and dynamic situations. It
was found during the project that initiation of an adaptive learning process and adaptive
capacitydevelopmentareatthispointforoverallclimateriskmanagementinagriculturesector.
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Chapter3. ClimateForecastApplications:wherearewenow?
ThepresentChapterprovidingatechnicalreviewoftheClimateForecastApplications(CFA)vis
visearlyWarningSystems(EWS)oftheexistingforhydrometrologicalhazardsinBangladesh
attemptstoinformonwherewethecountrysituationseatsnow.Reviewofpredominantclimatic
hazards are only included here and informs on respective status of prediction methods,
forecasting,preparednessmeasuresetc.ForsituatingbetterwiththeLACCIIperspective,these
are discussed both in terms of national level developments as well as bringing local level
promisinginitiatives.
3.1
National level developments
3.1.1
BangladeshMeteorologicalDepartment(BMD)
Different types ofinformationforclimate forecasting andearlywarningsissuedby Bangladesh
Meteorological Department (BMD) are tropical cyclone warning, Norwester warning, heavy
rainfallwarning,squallwarning,heatwavewarning,coldwavewarning,fogwarningandagro
climatological predictions. BMD, under the ministry of Defense collects data through it own
radar observation stations, Microwave and VSAT link. Then they firstly generates or
disseminates data FFWC and then presidents office and prime ministers office and then
electronic media, print media, different organizations, ports, air force, Navy and Army along
withMoFDMandfinallytheydisseminatetootherministries,GOs,NGOsandrelatedinterested
partyincludingmediathroughtheDMBandgovernmentchannels.
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Figure 3-1. BMD Website.

Source:http://www.bangladeshonline.com/bmd/
BMDisusing35sourceobservationstations,10pilotballoons,3rawinsande,12Agromet,4radar
stationobservatories.RecentlytheBMDhassetup4seismicobservatoriesforearthquakerelated
datacollectionandmonitoring.Butobservatoriesamongofthat4isnotinoperation.Onlyone
Chittagongobservatorystationisinoperation.
Toprovideweatherforecastsforpublic,farmers,marinersandaviatorsonroutinebasisandalso
toissuewarningforsevereweatherphenomenasuchastropicalcyclones,Tornados,norwasters,
heavyrainfallheatandcoldwaveswarnings.TheBMDexchangemeteorologicaldata,forecasts
and warnings to meet national and international requirements. This institution also provides
meteorological data, radar echoes and satellite imageries and weather forecast for flood and
storm warning centre at Dhaka and Rajshahi divisions. There are geophysical and metrological
centreatChittagong,Sylhet,BarishalandKhulnadivisions.
GlobalTelecommunicationsystemisbeingusedfor datainformationspeedonly2400bpsonly
wherenormallybroadbandinternetspeedisnowrunningon240kbps.Dailyweatherforecast
products are being delivered to the media and around over 22 line agencies, ministries and
departments.
3.1.2
FloodForecastingandWarningCentre(FFWC)
The Early Warning System for floods in Bangladesh was gradually developed from the flood
forecastinginitiativeofBangladeshWaterDevelopmentBoards(BWDB)FloodForecastingand
Warning Centre (FFWC). FFWC was established in 1972, and, since then, FFWC developed a
comprehensive system of collecting and processing hydrologic and other data as input to
forecasting models; preparing flood forecasts and warnings on a daily basis and disseminating
theforecastsandwarningstoarangeofgovernmentandnongovernmentorganizations,media
groups and other interested parties. Recent development of the Flood EWS, including the
preparationoffloodforecastingandwarnings,hasbeensupportedseveralprojectsincluding:
Consolidation and Strengthening of Flood Forecasting and Warning Services

(CSFFWS)
EnvironmentalMonitoringandInformationNetwork(EMIN)
CommunityFloodInformationSystems(CFIS)
ClimateForecastApplicationsinBangladesh(CFAB)PhaseIandII,and
DevelopmentofRegional,BasinFloodForecastModelforuseinBangladesh
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Figure 3-2. FFWC Website that updates daily flood forecast information.
Source:http://www.ffwc.gov.bd/
FloodforecastingmodelsofFFWCdevelopedonMIKE11,onedimensionalmodelingsoftware
used for the simulation of water levels and discharges in the rivers. For realtime flood
forecasting, FFWC uses Flood Watch, a decision support system developed in ArcView GIS,
which integrates database, modeling system, model outputs and dissemination of forecasts.
FFWC as part of the BWDB is responsible for flood forecasting and its dissemination within
Bangladesh.
R
e
a
l
T
i
m
e D a t a
Rainfall
DATA
PREPARATION
OUTPUT
Internet
Indian Data
WMO
JRC
WARPO
River stage
DISSEMINATION
wireless communication
Telemetry/Data box / Voice
Dissemination
to the public
Radio
BMD
Weather forecast
Synoptic charts
Modem
SPARRSO
Sattelite images
Boundary estimation
Rainfal,
Water level
Telephone
24, 48, 72 hr
forecasts
Television
Dissemination
to various agencies
Fax Modem
Fax
water level
Bulletine
manual entry
flood extent
maps
via modem
FFWC Radio Tower
Data Entry & Processing
Modelling & Mapping
thana
inundation
maps
GIS data layers

FFWC Satellite dish
Figure 3-3. FFWC operational system network.
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The warning information is disseminated through FFWCs traditional dissemination process

(Fax, Telephone, email).Theoverall warninggeneration and dissemination process has shown
in the above diagram. FFWC receives rainfall data mainly from BMD. They have also
arrangements with Indian Meteorology Department, Nepal Hydrology, Centre Water Level
Commission, and China Bureau of Hydrology to receive rainfall and other water relevant
information. FFWC receives raw data from these agencies and sixtyfour FFWCs own stations
andafterprocessingthedatatheydisseminatewarningmessageatfirstalltheMinistryandthen
DMIC,NDMC,DDMC,UDMCandallotherorganizationsrelevanttodisastermanagementby
Faxandemail.OntheotherhandIWFM,CEGIS,IWM,GSBarealsoinvolvedinpredictionof
Floodarea,Floodzoningmap,Floodvulnerability.FFWCisresponsibleformonitoringflooding
inaunifiedandmultipurposemanner.FFWCs forecastingstationsgenerate24,48and72hour
forecastseveryday.
Figure 3-4. FFWC daily activity flow chart.
A daily bulletin, based on observed data and results of forecast models, is prepared, and
distributed by FFWC at around 12:00 noon to various administrative tiers. The detailed daily
activity for that information is shown in the above figure. The bulletin, mostly in tabular form,
includethefollowing:
a) acoverpageshowinggeographical,environmentalsettingsofBangladeshandlocation
ofallmonitoringstations;
b) riverstageofallmonitoringstationswithrespecttodangerlevel,followedbyrise/fallof
waterlevelontherespectivedate;
c) rainfallsituationforaspecificdate,followedbymonthlynormalandcumulativerainfall;
d) summaryofrainfallandriversituationbasedonmajorfindings;
e) 24and48hourforecastsforsomeimportantstationsaffectedbyshallow,moderate,and
severeflooding;
f) floodwarningmessagesthatdisplaytrendsofwaterlevels(ifclosetoorexceedsthe
dangerlevels,atwhichfloodingbecomesaseriousthreat);and
g) adetailstatisticsonriverstageandrainfallforthreeconsecutivedays.
SomeoftheproductsthatFFWCsharesthroughtheirregularandemergencynetwork(shownin
Tablebelow)areshowninthefollowingsection:
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Figure 3-5. Existing Flood Warning Product Dissemination Routes.

Dissemination
Medium
HardCopy(hand
delivered),Faxand
Email
Faxand/orEmail
only
Internet
FFWCProduct
Bulletins
Bulletins
Bulletins,plots,flood
map,Thanastatus
Recipient
Group
PrimeMinistersOffice,governmentministries,
BWDBofficials,governmentorganizations
DMB,DMICCDMP,NGOs,embassies,international
donorandaidorganizations,newsmedia
Generalpublic,international
Someoftheregularoutputstheyshareareasfollows(assamples):
Output1.AsampleFFWCregularfloodbulletinRiverSituation(2pagebulletinginthis
respectivedate)
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Output2.AsampleFFWCregularfloodbulletinRainfallSituation(2pagebulletinginthis
respectivedate).
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Output3. Is a 10day Water Level Forecasts on the Major Rivers of Bangladesh. This is an
additional forecasting beyond the traditional 244872 hours and comes from the CFABFFS
ModelusingClimateForecastApplicationsinBangladesh(CFAB)predictiondata.
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Output4.AsampleofInundationmapisbasedonthe48hoursforecasting.
Output5.Asampleofurbaninundationmap(forDhakacityinthiscase)producedbyFFWC
andbasedontheirfloodforecastingdata.
Output6.AsampleofahydrographthatFFWCsharesontheobservedandpredictedwater
leveloftherespectiverivers.
27
3.2
FinalReport
Local level initiatives
ArecentworkbyADPCwithCDMP(DMIN)hascompiledandreportedonvariouspromising
local level initiatives that emerged in the last decade or so in Bangladesh. The following table
providesalistofsuchinitiativesandacomparativeoverviewoftheseinitiatives.
Table 3-1. Various local level climatic hazard related EW initiatives developed in the country.
Initiative
CPPinitiative
MajorHazardfocus
CFIS/CFABproject
Riverineflood
Disseminationmode
protocols
VHFradio,CPP
volunteers,collaboration
withlocalsetup
SMSandFax;flaghoisting
CEGISBDPC
(LDRRFin
Lalmonirhat)
project
BDPCandFFWC
Multihazard(Flood,
drought,Coldspell
anderosion)
SMSandFax;flag
hoisting.5daysleadtime
isoperational
Riverineflood
SMSandFax;flaghoisting Paralleldisseminationflow
recommendeduptounion
systemandflagoperators
FFWC/BWDBand
12and3dayleadtime
IMD/Indianuniversities
requirementsshown.
Talkedaboutaneedfora collaborationsuggested
communicationplan.
Specificprotocolsarenot
specified.
SMSandFax;flaghoisting Paralleldisseminationflow
recommendeduptochange
agents
WorldSpaceSatellite
Paralleldisseminationflow
system
recommendedupto
communityandremote
areas
Fax,mapsandflag
hoistinginvulnerable
areas
system
Cyclone(also
Tsunamirecently)
CNRSFlashFlood
underLDRRF
Flashflood
ActionAidBDPC
project
Flood
BUETstudyunder
UNOPSandCDMP
CycloneandTsunami
CEGIS
BWDB/JMREMP
initiative
Riverbankerosion
Onparalleldissemination
flowforEW
EmphasisonexistingCPP
BDRCandcollaboration
withGovt.system
systemandflagoperators
system
Source:AdaptedfromADPC:July,2009.
Amongthesepromisinghazardspecificlocallevelinitiatives,fourinitiativesarediscussedin
detailedinfollowingsection.Thiswouldinclude:
Initiative1:CyclonePreparednessProgramme(CPP)initiative
Initiative2:BWDBsCFIS/CFABinitiativeforriverineflood
Initiative3:RiverbankerosionpredictioninitiativeofBWDBJMREMP;
Initiative4.DroughtassessmentandplanningusingDRASmodel;and
Initiative5.BMDsagrometeorologicalforecast.
3.2.1
Initiative1:CyclonePreparednessProgrammeinthecoastalzoneofBangladesh
The Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) initiative is one of the leading efforts for cyclone
early warning and management in the region. For generating EW, primarily, the programme
receivesawarningmessagefirstfromBMD(StormWarningCenter)andthenfromDMB,DRR,
MoFDM and other stakeholders by Fax. CPP disseminates the cyclone and storm related early
28
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warning to their thirty two well established CPP field offices and coordinates at the local level
through a wellorganized volunteer structure of CPP and BDRCS. The programme has been
operatingformorethanthirtyyearsandstillremainsasthemajormodelofcyclonepreparedness
andEWdisseminationinthecoastalregionofthecountry.Theprogrammeincoordinationwith
BDRCS, DMB, DRR, local government and all levels of disaster management committees try to
makepreparationsforevacuationsinthecoastalareasofthecountry.Sheltermanagement,social
work,firstaidserviceandcoordinationwiththelocalgovernmentarealsostandardactivitiesof
theprogramme.
Figure 3-6. Local level dissemination system of the CPP.
The CPP has encouraged community based volunteerism and works through a voluntary
mechanism at the community level where a big success has been observed in recent times in
savinglivesofthepeopleinthecommunity.Thesimplepublicdisseminationsystemdeveloped
bytheCPPanditsinstitutionalmechanisminvolvingthelocalvolunteersremainedasthemajor
success of the initiative. The hand mikes and megaphone type of public address systems have
beenapopularlyusedtoreachouttothecommunitiesasamodeoflocalleveldissemination.
Figure 3-7. The institutional setup of CPP.
OneofthechallengesfacedbytheCPPprograminrecenttimeisitsfullestcoveragetosafeguard
peopleslivelihoodsbesidestheirlife.Inthisrespect,furtheradditionaldevelopmentofthistype
of people centric community level early warning and to expand measures to protect peoples
livelihoods (e.g. saving standing crops, households assets) would be a major value added
initiative.
29
3.2.2
FinalReport
Initiative2:BWDBsCFISCFABinitiativeforriverineflood
The Community Flood Information System (CFIS) has been experimented in recent time under
various collaborative initiatives under by BWDB, WARPO, Riverside Technologies Inc., CEGIS,
USAID, CARE, ADPC, BDPC and EMIN (from 2001 onward). The CFIS initiative aimed to
disseminate information on the flood extent, duration and depth of water to the communities
before a flood occurs. The system was based on a GISbased flood forecasting information
softwarecalledWATSURF,whichusesacorrelationmodelofa248squarekmstudyarea.Itisa
simplegaugetogaugecorrelationbasedtoolthatusesforecastedwaterlevelsfromtheFFWCas
input.Thecalculatedwaterlevelsarethenusedtogeneratefloodwaterlevelsinthestudyarea
usingGIStechnology.TheconceptualdiagramoftheCFISisshowninFigurebelow.
Figure 3-8. CFIS/CFAB information flow and dissemination process.
The CFIS system disseminates flood warnings to the pilot areas in a unique way. Selected
individuals in the community serve as the operators to receive a daily text message with flood
warningsandoperatetheflagsystemandbulletinboardtoinformthecommunityoftheflood
warning. The message and symbols were designed with participation of the local people. The
initiative has helped raise some level of awareness amongst local people about flood forecasts
and warnings. Flood warnings are conveyed to local people by change agents and volunteers
who explain the implications and interpretation of different types of warnings and help with
flood preparedness. At the union level in the community UP members and chairman plays a
central role in relaying the messages out to the local agents, volunteers, traditional leaders,
teachers and a host of destination points. The warning messages then reach the farmers and
community households using local modes of communications. At the village level, the flag
systemisalsooftenused.
In recent times, the CFIS model has been taken even further through an active collaboration
between ADPC, CARE, CEGIS, IWM, CFAN, GTech, USA, ADPC and FFWC and has been
furtherpilotedandspecifiedwitharelativelylongerleadtimeforecastingsystem.TheCFABhas
advancedthemethodtoagreaternumberofareasaswellastheextentofleadtimealongwith
interpretation of the forecasts for the agriculture sector and safeguard of crops and other
propertiesthroughinvolvementofthecommunitiesandlocallevelinstitutions.
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Figure 3-9. CFIS/CFAB information flow and dissemination process using flag hoisting.
This initiative has a good potential to be considered as a national system, particularly in the
riverine systems. Gradual developments can be made on a basis and river specific zones for
further refinement and increase of lead time. The dissemination system developed under this
process also acknowledges the union systems (UP and associated Union DMC) as major
stakeholdersforcommunitybasedearlywarningatthegroundlevel.
One of the challenges this initiative has demonstrated is the flood information for the areas
beyondorfarfromtheriverineareas.Thegeographiclocationsthatareinlandfromtheriverine
areas are yet to be covered/tested under this initiative. People often want to know more
information on flooding beyond the river water level. Also, the initiative is based on a cellular
communication for relaying the flood forecasting information to the community. This can be
further simplified for a further widespread expansion using more community level modalities.
Expansion of this type of initiatives in other river systems and in the tidal rivers in the coastal
areasisachallengeforfuture.
3.2.3
Initiative3:RiverbankerosionpredictioninitiativeofBWDBJMREMP
In the Jamuna and other river major systems BWDB with CEGIS has stated developing a local
level erosion prediction method. At the local level, localized river erosion vulnerability maps
weredemonstratedintheunionparishad,UNOofficesandotherpublicplaces.Theseproducts
werefoundtobeunderstoodtoasignificantlevelbythelocalcommunities,particularlybythe
localgovernment representatives.Furthermore, area wise demarcationofvulnerablezones was
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tried out using flags in the most vulnerable areas. The local government representatives along
with the BWDB local officials were in charge of managing these flags and the dissemination of
information among the local communities for preparedness and voluntary resettlements.
However,thereismuchremainingbeforethispilotbasederosioninformationcanbetakentoa
greaterscale.Someoftheerosionvulnerablemapsproducedareshowninfollowingfigure.
For river bank erosion prediction, the BWDB with support from CEGIS developed a
morphological and riverbank erosion prediction method based on satellite images. Since 2002,
this kind of prediction has been generated through predicting morphological developments in
theJamunaRiverat thePabna Irrigation andRuralDevelopment Project(PIRDP),andFAP 21.
From2004onwards,BWDBCEGIShasbeenpredictingthebankerosionalongtheJamunaand
Padma rivers yearly under the framework of the JamunaMeghna River Erosion Mitigation
Project (JMREMP) and the Environmental Monitoring and Information Network for Water
ResourcesProject(EMIN).
Thesystemhasexemplifiedthevalueofinvolvingthelocalgovernment(UP)andtheUNOinthe
overall process of planning and regimentation for slow onset disaster preparations on the
ground.Thiscouldbeagoodexampleforslowonsethazardplanningandnetworkdevelopment
andcanbelinkedupwithupazilalevelssystemsinthefuture.
Figure 3-10. Erosion prediction and vulnerability assessment materials by BWDB.
32
3.2.4
FinalReport
Initiative4:DroughtassessmentandplanningusingDRASmodel
Bangladeshnormallyfacestwotypesofdroughti.e.transientandinvisible.Thedroughthasalso
three aspects i.e. hydrological, meteorological and agricultural. Drought as an agricultural
phenomenonreferstoconditionswhereplantsareresponsivetoacertainlevelofmoisturestress
that affects both the vegetative growth and yield of crops. Drought and drought intensity are
characterizedprimarilybasedonmoistureretentioncapacityofthesoilandinfiltration.
NumericalpredictionofdroughtisabsentinBangladesh.However,BangladeshMeteorological
Department (BMD) provide climatological and agrometeorological forecast for 710 days,
monthly and three monthly and disseminate to the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of
AgriculturalExtension(DAE)andFoodandAgriculturalOrganization(FAO).Itgivesindication
of rainfall predication and possibility of continued low/insignificant rainfall. It defines
insignificant rainfall as 25 percent below normal rainfall during forecasted period. It is to be
noted that Bangladesh Meteorological Department has initiated a project Numerical Weather
Prediction (NWP) for numerical predication of weather which will able to provide better
forecast in future which needs speedy internet connection, higher computer capability and
skilledmanpower.
Centre for Environment and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) has also developed a
droughtassessmentmodelcalledDRoughtASsessmentorDRASinshortwithBARC.TheDRAS
modelwaspilotedinvariousselectedsiteswithBARCandDAEinvariousagroecologicalzones.
Thismodelhasagoodpotentialtobemainstreamedinthenationaldroughtsituationprediction
systeminfuture.AconceptualframeworkoftheDRASmodelisshowninthefigurebelow.
Framework for drought assessment
Upstream
flows
Climate
changes
Computational
Framework
Irrigation
development
Crop
development
Database
Hydrological data
river discharges
groundwater
rainfall
irrigation facilities
Availability model
dependable flows
recharge
field supply
Agro-ecological data
climate data
crop data
soil data
Demand model
stress days
net irrigation requirement
Production Loss
Outputs
drought maps
irrigation development
potential
Figure 3-11. Conceptual framework of DRAS model.
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3.2.5
FinalReport
Initiative5.BMDsagrometeorologicalforecasting
BangladeshMeteorologicalDepartmentsagrometeorologydepartmenthasstartedtoprovidea
sevendayforecastinginrecentyears.Therecentformatprovidesrainfallforecast,meansurface
temperature forecast, information on free water loss, sunshine hour with highlights, weather
advisoryandregularweatherrelatedinformationfortheseverdayforecastperiod.Theforecast
isnowalsoprovidedinaGISlayoutwithdistrictadministrativeboundaryonit.Thisinitiative
hasbeenanencouraginginitiativewhichissolelyprovidedonthebasisoftheobserveddataand
forecast outputs centrally from the country and then circulated to the various line agencies,
ministries and nongovernment entities. The following figure shows such a latest agro
meteorologicalforecastbulletinforsevendaystimeperiod.
Figure 3-12. BMDs agrometeorological bulletin for 7-days time period.
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Acomparisonofvarioushydrometrologicalhazardearlywarningstatuswasdocumentedina
recent study by ADPC which is adopted below to provide a broad comparative picture of the
statusoftheearlywarningandtoinformwherethisissituatednow.
Table 3-2. A comparative overview of the various hydro-metrological hazards EW in Bangladesh.
EWS
source
agencies
EWS
availability
stage
Riverine
Flood
FFWC
(BWDB)
Existing
stage
Flash
Flood
FFWC,
IWM,
ADPC
Developme
ntalstage
Cyclone
BMD,
IMD,UK
Drought
Sourceto
destinati
on
connecti
vity(in
project
areas)
Good
Informatio
ncontent
type
transferred
tolocal
level
Community
Dissemination
mode
Informat
ion/mate
rial
quality
Timing/
leadtime
oftheearly
warning
Bulletin,
SMS,Fax,
Call
Flag,agency
instruction,local
government
notification,news
media
Good
Poor
Bulletin,
SMS,Fax,
Call
Medium
(experim
ental)
Long
standing,
Redundant
systems
available
Very
good
Very
good
Verygood.
72hours
SRDI,
SMRC,
DAE,
CEGIS
(DRAS
model)
Experiment
alstage
Poor
Officialnotification
Poor
Not
available
Riverban
kerosion
BWDB
CEGIS,J
MREMP
Developme
ntalstage
Poor
Landzoningand
areplanning
Good
Seasonal
Coastal
erosion
BWDB
CEGIS,
IWM,
JMREMP
Experiment
alstage
Poor
Landzoningand
areplanning
Good
Seasonal
Urban
Fire
National
Fire
Brigade
and
Services
Non
scientific
methods
exist
Medium
Bulletin,
SMS,Fax,
Call,
Megaphone
,Doorto
Door
through
volunteers
Agricultura
l
department
al
notification
(DAE,
Irrigation
etc.)
Maps,
Satellite
imagery,
BWDB
notification
Maps,
Satellite
imagery,
BWDB
notification
Phonecall,
inter
personal
communica
tion
Flag,agency
instruction,local
government
notification,news
media
Flag,agency
instruction,local
government
notification,news
media
72hours
dailyand4
10days
with
improved
accuracy
24hours
(Experimen
tal)
Firebrigade
services,bells,
community
response
Simple
Not
available
35
Climate
change
trend
UNFCC
C,
SMRC,
National
research
institutes
(i.e.
IWM,
CEGIS)
GCMand
RCM
models
existing
andlocal
downscalin
gare
underway
Poor
Policy
formulation
,NAPA,
Adaptation
project
developme
nt,
mainstream
ingexercise
Educationand
awarenessraising
FinalReport
Complica
ted
Modeling
resultsare
available
Source:ADPC(2008)
36
FinalReport
Chapter4. CapacityBuildingExperiences:agrowingneedatall
levels
In LACCII process, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) and the LACC II Project
ManagementUnit(PMU)haveprovidedinputstobuildcapacityofthelocallevelprofessionals
on climate change and livelihoods based adaptations. ADPC has brought experiences from the
regionandengagedinthesetrainingandcapacitybuildinginitiativesinagradualmanner.
First in April, 2008, ADPC has organized their fullscale Regional Climate Risk Management
TraininginBangkokwheremultipleprofessionalsfromDAEandMinistryofAgriculturehave
participated and received training. Follow up to that, ADPC has organized and undertaken a
series of local level training programs (four events in October, 2008) for Upazila Officials and
Operational level officers on Fundamentals of Climate Risk Management. This round of
trainingwaswidelyappreciatedbytheupazilalevelofficialsandblockleveloperationalofficers
inbothdroughtproneandcoastalareas.
Inasummarizedmanner,ADPCinputsremainbothdirectlyconnectedandindirectlyfacilitated
infollowingtrainingandcapacitybuildingactivitiesunderLACCIIproject:
LocallevelClimateChangeandAdaptationBasicTrainingforUpazilalevelofficials
(FacilitatedbyADPCresourceteam)
LocallevelClimateChangeandAdaptationBasicTrainingforOperationlevelofficers
(FacilitatedbyADPCresourceteam)
TechnicalTrainingonSectoralAdaptation(ADPCassistedindevisingthetrainingand
connectedtheresourcepersonandPMUhascarriedouttheevents)
NationallevelClimateChangeForecastApplicationsTrainingandLearning(Facilitated
byADPCresourceteam).
37
FinalReport
4.1
Local level trainings on climate change and adaptation
TheLocalLevelClimateChangeandLivelihoodsAdaptationTrainingroundwasorganizedto
train subdistrict (upazila) and block level operational professionals from the six different
districts of the project pilot area. In this round the training events were an integral part of the
overall capacityof the DAE and otheragencyprofessionalsinbuildingskills in climatechange
andadaptivecapacitybuildingforoperationsatlocallevel.
Themajor objective of thetrainingprogram was to increaseadaptive capacityof the locallevel

(upazila and block/implementation level) and other operational professionals in a systematic
way. Through this training the local level officials and operational professionals were given
orientation on the major issues and themes of climate change, adaptation and its linkages with
overallriskmanagementthroughsystematicadaptationprocess.
The trainees were exposed to the Climate change fundamentals, its relationship with overall
disastermanagement,climateforecastapplicationsandthevariousways,meansandoptionsof
agriculturalclimatechangeinapracticalways.Thelivelihoodsadaptationmeasuresfromlocal
perspective as well as from scientific perspectives were elaborated for their internal
understandingandcapacitybuilding.
4.1.1
Scheduleoftrainingevents
The training program was carried out in two rounds: Pabna round and Khulna round.
Considering the two different regions of the project: drought prone northwestern area and in
southerncoastalareathisarrangementwasmade.TheParticipantswereinvitedfromallproject
pilot areasandweredivided in fouroneday training programs asperthestructureadopted
forparticipation.Thetrainingdatesandlocationsarementionedinthetablebelow.
Table 4-1. Local level training schedule for four events.

Region
Droughtpronepilotupazilasof
northerndistricts
Coastalpilotareasofsouthern
districts
Date
Location
Trainingaudiences
October19,
2008
October20,
2008
October22,
2008
October23,
2008
Pabna
Training1:Upazilalevelofficialsfromthedrought
pronepilotupazilas
Training2:Projectimplementationleveloperational
officersfromthedroughtpronepilotupazilas
Training3:Upazilalevelofficialsfromthecoastalpilot
upazilas
Training4:Projectimplementationleveloperational
officersfromthecoastalpilotupazilas
Pabna
Khulna
Khulna
38
4.1.2
FinalReport
Trainingdeliverymodalityandparticipants
The delivered training sessions were largely based on the information exchange and capacity
building in a shared mode. A total of over hundred professionals were training in the four
trainings in two rounds. Training programs were oneday events and divided into multiple
modules.Trainingprogramswerecarriedoutseparatelyintwodifferentdays.Onthefirstday,
the upazila level official(e.g. Upazila Agriculture officer, Upazila fisheries officer, PIO and
equivalentlevelofprofessionalsetc.)weretrained.Discussionbasedapproacheswerecarriedout
in this day along with PowerPoint presentations. In the daytwo, the training program was
carriedoutfortheOperationallevelofficers(e.g.SAAOs,Projectofficersandsoforth).Inthis
training session more workshop oriented and more easy access materials were shared and a
handsonapproachwasadoptedfortheparticipants.
Inbothtypeofsessionstheexperiencesofthetraineeswereexploredfromtheempiricalsituation
and tried to share during the training discussions. Lectures were delivered in a way that each
group can internalize the new issues of climate change in a practical manner and be able to
generate a dialogue on the issue reflecting their own context and situation. In this respect, the
examplesofthedroughtproneareasforthenortherntwotrainingsinPubnaroundwereshared
while the coastal vulnerabilities, coastal adaptations and other issues of coastal climate change
issuesweresharedinthefinaltwotrainingsintheKhulnaroundtraining.
The delivery language was primarily Bangla. For those presentations and materials which
remained in English were delivered through simultaneous translation through the pool of
resource trainers and necessary interpretation were made available to the participants. The
ADPC team took actions to maintain the quality of the training sessions. ADPC professionals
sharedtheoveralloutlineofthetrainingandhadbriefedboththetrainingteamandthetrainers
atthebeginningofthesession.
4.1.3
Resourcepersons
The training program at local level were developed with active contribution of the resource
personsfromvariousareasofclimatechange,agriculturaladaptationanddisastermanagement
relatedprofessionals.Trainerscomefrommultidisciplinarybackgroundandwithawiderange
of experience of working in the livelihoods based adaptation in agriculture sector as well as
disaster and climate change programs. The training team comprises of both international and
national professionals. Some of the key resource professionals and trainers for this local level
capacity building exercise were: Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Livelihoods Vulnerability and Climate
Change Adaptation Expert (Lead Trainer), Dr. Jayaraman Potty (Climatologist, Early Warning
Team, ADPC, Dr. Abu Wali Raghib Hassan (from DAE), Dr. Satendra Singh (from PMU), and
Sanjib Saha (from PMU). In addition to the above trainers, expert guidance for were received
from Dr. Stephan Baas, Lead Technical Officer from FAO headquarters and from AR Subbiah,
Director,ClimateRiskManagementDepartmentofADPCfordevelopingthetrainingmaterials
inasequentialmanner.
4.1.4
Trainingdeliveryexperiences
The course was designed in three technical modules and with an additional formal opening
session for effective administration of the training sessions. The ADPC trainers with active
supportfromthePMUhavetakeninitiativestoaccommodateanynecessaryadjustmentsdeemed
necessary on the spot of after training and maintained the quality check for each training
materialsandsessionsrigorously.Aftereachdayoftraining,thetrainingresourceteamhassat
together for necessary modifications and adjustments for the subsequent sessions. The two
roundsofbacktobacktrainingshasbeenfoundusefulfortheparticipantsastheycouldshare
theirimmediateexperienceswitheachotherafterduringandafterthesessionsintheirownfield
39
FinalReport
of work. The sessions under three technical modules and opening session as progressed are
outlinedinthefollowingtableandindiscussedbelow.
Table 4-2. Session details of the local level training by ADPC.

Module
Session
OpeningRemarks:PMU,CDMP,ADPC,National/localhost
Presentation:LACCIIProjectoverview
OverviewofCDMP(onlyinKhulnaround)
Structureandoutlineoftraining
Orientationoftheparticipantsandbriefingonlogistics
IcebreakerExercise:ObservationonCCanditsimpactonagriculture(incard)
Lecture:ClimateChangeFundamentals
Lecture:ClimateForecastApplications
Exerciseanddiscussion:ClimateForecastApplicationsatlocallevel
Module:Two:
ClimatechangeImpacts
andAdaptation
Lecture:ClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptationinAgricultureSector
Groupexerciseanddiscussion:Identificationofsectoralimpactsofclimatechange
Module:Three:Climate
changeAdaptationand
Evaluations
Guidedadaptationevaluation:ParticipantsevaluationofLACCIIAdaptation
measures
Minitalk(s)onCCA/participantspresentation:InnovativeAgricultureRisk
ManagementApproaches(e.g.IPM/IntegratedFisheries/Extensionasadaptation)
Groupdiscussionandplenary
Concludingremarks
OpeningSession
ModuleOne:
ClimateScienceand
Fundamentals
A typical training program day started in each morning around 8:30 with a formal opening
session. In the brief formal opening session each day, opening remark from PMU, CDMP (in
Khulnaround),ADPC,andnationalexpertsassessedtheneedfortrainingandcapacitybuilding
of professionals on emerging issue of climate change and climate change adaptation. From the
PMUanoverviewoftheLACCprojectwasgiventosituatetheprojectactivitiesandthetraining.
At each day, the structure of the training was also explained upfront so that the participants
understoodtheprocessandmodeofthetraining.Thiswasusefulinmakingaroutinetrackofthe
daysactivitiesandadjustmentofthesessiontimingsduringthecourseoftheday.Intheopening
session a selforientation of the participants and resources persons were carried out to let
everyoneintroducewithothers.Usuallythelogisticsbriefwouldendtheformalopeningsession
andsituateafarmbackgroundforrestofthedaysactivities.
4.1.5
Module1:IcebreakerexerciseonClimatechange
Before the first technical module (Module 1: Climate Science and Fundamentals), a unique
sessionwasdesignedandcarriedoutforparticipantsicebreaking.Astheparticipantscamefrom
variousareasandtheissuesisrelativelynew,theicebreakerexercisewasfoundveryusefulto
start the module activities. There are three ice breaker questions were given to the participants
one after another and asked the participants to write their answers in a card (distributed
separatelyearlier).Eachofthecardswerecollecteduponcompletionandthenparticipantsone
byonesharedtheirexistingthoughtsandanswersonthosequestions.
Thethreeicebreakerquestionsareasfollows:
1. Defineclimatechangeinyourownterms?(Jolobayuporibortonbolteapnikibojhen?)
2. Pleaseidentifysomeelementsofclimatechange(Jolobayuporibortonerkoyektiniyamok
chinhitokorun)
3. Pleaseindicatesomeimpactsofclimatechange(Jolobayuporibortonerkoyektiprobhab
chinhitokorun)
40
FinalReport
Someofthedefinitionsoftheparticipantsonclimatechangeareasfollows:
Climatechangeisanissueoflongtermtrend
Climatechangeisachangeoftemperature
Climatechangeisafactoroferraticchangeinnaturalphenomena
Climatechangemeansachangeintemperatureandrainfall
Manyothersarticulatedinthetrainingbytheparticipants.
4.1.6
Module1:LectureonFundamentalsofClimateChange
In the first module of thetrainingit was thought thatthe participants should haveaclearidea
aboutthescientificreasoningofclimatechange.Keepingthisinmind,alectureonfundamentals
of climate change was designed. In this lecture, the concept of climate change, the differences
betweentheweatherandclimatechange,issuesandreasonsofgreenhouseeffect,hydrological
cycleprocessandotherfeaturesarediscussedinaneasyformat.Specialattentionwasgivento
make the scientific issues present in a very simple manner to the participants so that they can
understand easily the whole gamut of climate change science part relatively easily but can
discusseffectivelyafterwardsaswell.
Inthediscussionsthedefinitionalissueswerediscussedtakingtimeandmakingnecessary
referencestothescientificliteratureexistingfromstandardsourcessuchasIPCCFourth
AssessmentReportandsoforth.Someofthedefinitionsareasfollows:
DefiningtwomutuallydifferenttermsWeatherandClimate,
TheWeather:thestateoftheatmosphere(Earth)atagiventime.(hoursdays)
Climate:theaverageatmosphericconditionsoverlongerperiodsoftime(say30
years).
DefiningthetermClimateChange,
anychangeinclimateovertime,whetherduetonaturalvariabilityorasaresultof
humanactivity(IPCC:2007)
a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that

altersthecompositionoftheglobalatmosphereandthatisinadditiontonaturalclimate
variabilityobservedovercomparabletimeperiods(UNFCC)
4.1.7
Module1:Lectureonclimateforecastapplicationsandanexercise
After delivering on the fundamentals of climate change it was clearly understood (also
articulated) by the participants that the climate change will increase both the frequency and
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FinalReport
intensityofvarioustypesofhazardsinfutureandthesehazardswillmakemoredisasterstothe
agricultureandalliedsectorsincomingdays.
With this background it was emphasized that climate forecast applications can help people to
prepare for future such risks and develop their adaptive capacity in this line. In the second
lectureonclimateforecastapplicationsexamplesaregivenofvariousforecastapplicationssuch
as CFAB project for flood preparedness and mathematical weather forecasting examples of
trackingcycloneandsoforth.
Fromthefirsttwolecturestheparticipantsunderstoodthatalthoughtheclimatechangeisquite
apparentscientifically,thiscanbebothmitigatedfurtheraswellastheadaptationispossibleto
thesefutureclimaticrisks.
This module ended with a facilitated exercise on hand on forecasting using past representative
rainfallandtemperaturedataoverdistrictsinBangladesh.Adatatablewasgivenfortheperiod
1990to2005.Fromthedataparticipantswereaskedtogenerate:a)normalrainfallfortheperiod;
b) draw the normal rainfall line in a chart (give to then in a sheet), c) mark the rainfall and
temperature each year in the chart, and d) find out the drought and flood years during those
period from the graph. The whole exercise was facilitated by the resource trainers and the
participantsappreciatedthiskindofhandsonexerciseverymuch.
4.1.8
Module2:LectureonClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptation
Fromthefirstmodulewhichwasmoreonscienceanditsapplications,thesecondmodulewas
solely more on climate change adaptation and its societal applications for increasing adaptive
capacity at local and sectoral levels. In the second module, issues of climate change relating to
Bangladeshweregivenpriorityandtheneedforclimatechangeadaptationwasmadecleartothe
participants. The lecture started with situating the climate change context of the country and
42
FinalReport
parametersofanticipatedchangesarelikelyfor2030,2050and2100inBangladesh.Thepotential
level of mean temperature, precipitation and Sea Level Rise were discussed following the
nationalandinternationalstandards.
To contextualize the drought situation, both the existing and the anticipated changes, various
issueswerediscussedandreferenceswereshardwiththeparticipants.Someofthelikelyimpacts
were discussed with the participants and discussions carried out within the lecture on such
issues. This session was a lecture and discussion driven session and the participants could
activelyparticipateinthediscussionfornecessaryclarificationandnewunderstanding.Someof
thefollowingmapsarealsosharedwiththeparticipantstoshowthepotentialimpactofdrought,
water, soils, SLR etc. Necessary updated reference materials were shared with the participants.
Forthecoastalzonerelevantparametersweresharedaswell.
Droughtmaps:
Likelycoastalimpacts(SLR,watersalinity,soilsalinity,cyclone/stormsetc.):
43
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rainfall
Thislecturehascoveredtheclimatechangeimpactsonagricultureandalliedsectorsandshared
theissuesoflikelyimpactsontheagricultureandalliedsectors.
Someofthelikelyimpactsanticipatedbyscientistsareasfollows:
Changesinwaterresourcesdemand
andavailability.Precipitation,
evaporation,transpiration,etc.,canall
change.Floodcontrol,drainage,and
irrigationinfrastructurewillhaveto
evolvewiththechanges.
Greaterrisksformonoculture.
Changesindiseaseandpestranges
andseverity.Changesintemperature,
hydrologicregime,frostdates,etc.,
willaffectdiseaseandpest
prevalence,andhostsusceptibility.
Coastalinundation,saline
groundwaterintrusion,drainage
congestion.Assealevelrises,low
lyingcountrieswillbeaffected.
Inthismodule,amajorissueofdeliverywastodiscussandclarifythetermofadaptationand
sharewhyadaptationisneededandhowasystematiclivelihoodsbasedadaptationcanupliftthe
adaptivecapacityofthepeopleandlocallevelinstitutionsinagradualmanner.
Someoftheissuesdiscussedasbelow:
Flood Risk
Increase
Whyweeneedadaptation?
Climatechangeimpactsbecome
apparent
Failingtoreducegreenhousegas
Drought Risk
Increase
emissions
Respondingtoachangingclimaterequires
adjustmentsandchanges
Aug
Dec
May
Sustainabledevelopmentlinkage
WhatisAdaptation?
Adaptationistheadjustmentinnaturalorhumansystemsinresponsetoactualor
expectedclimaticstimuliortheireffects,whichmoderatesharmorexploitsbeneficial
opportunities(IPCC:2007)
44
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Otherdefinitions:
Adaptationispossibleadjustments(spontaneousorplanned)ofpeople,plantsor
ecosystemstoclimatechangetoreduceadverseimpacts,totakeadvantageof
opportunitiesortocopewiththeconsequencesofclimatechange.
Varioustypesofpracticedtypesofadaptation(WRI:2007):
Serendipitous/unanticipatedadaptation
ClimateProofingofDevelopmentEfforts
DiscreteAdaptation
During the discussion in this module it was discussed that adaptation is actually a process of
adjustingtochangesinvariablesthatinfluence(e.g.humanwellbeingandsurvival,ecosystems)
and it can take place at different levels, with different actors, different levels of consciousness,
purposeandtiming.Itwasalsodiscussedthatlivelihoodsbasedadaptationisapeoplecentric
solutionbasedonbothlocalknowledgewiththescientificfacilitation.Itisdualwayprocessand
buildsontheadaptivecapacitythroughasystematicprocess.
Vulnerable
Climate
shock
Adaptation
Coping range
Coping range is increasing
Vulnerable
Time
It was shown to the participants that for this gradual adaptation in a systematic ways a
processualapproachisneededandheLACCprojectwithDAEistakingthatuniqueapproachto
buildcapacityatlocalandinstitutionallevels.
4.1.9
Module3:Exerciseontheevaluationofadaptationmeasures
Inthefinalmoduleaveryusefulroundofgroupworkonclimatechangeadaptationevaluation
wasdeveloped.Onthebasisoftheacquiredknowledgeoftheparticipantsfromtheprevioustwo
modules,participantswereaskedtoevaluatetheadaptationmeasures(thatarecollectedearlier
under the LACCI and LACCII project) using a Criteria for evaluation. In this exercise of
evaluatingtheadaptationmeasuresfollowingfourcriteriawereused.Participantsweregivenall
the lists of the adaptation measures in four groups (usually by sectors such as agriculture,
fisheries, forestry and livestock) and requested to classify each of these measures under any of
thefourcriteria.Fourcriteriaare:
Climateissuesrelatedmeasure
ClimatechangeandDevelopmentmeasure
Developmentonlymeasure
Nonclimaticmeasure
This exercise made the participants understand the differences of the adaptation specific
measures from the regular development measures which are not always associated to the
climate change adaptation immediate or long term options. Participants found this exercise
45
FinalReport
useful for generating discussions with their own rationales but with increased knowledge this
timewiththeknowledgeofknowingwhichisaadaptationmeasuresandwhichisnot.
4.1.10
Outputsoftheadaptationoptionevaluationresults
Non-clim atic
Theevaluationexercisewascarriedoutin
m easure
2%
11(eleven)groupsfromthefourtrainings
Developm ent
only m easure
(both for the senior and junior officers
19%
rounds)andtheresultsshownbelowisan
outputs and analysis of the major trends
fromthese11setsofresults.
Clim ate issue

Theresultsindicatethat(showninthepie
Clim ate change
related m easure
and
37%
diagram on the right) the participants
developm ent
m easure
perceive that most of the adaptation
42%
optionsidentifiedintheproject are either
directlyrelatedontheclimateissues(37%)orofdualnatureofclimatechangeanddevelopment
(42%). It indicates that almost 80% of the adaptation measures are in some way contributes
towards the climate change adaptation for the livelihoods. A very small number (2%) of the
measures are identified as these do not have any relationships with climate change at all. A
proportionof19%measuresfromthelistarealsoidentifiedasareoftensolelycontributetowards
theregulardevelopmentworkofthedepartmentsandagencies.
Amoredetailedaccount(fromthedominantperceptions)areshowninthetablebelowforeach
oftheadaptationoptionsasidentifiedbytheparticipantsintheir11groupexerciseresults.
Table 4-3. Adaptation measures as classified by the participants from their evaluations.
SL
AdaptationOptions
Climate
issue
related
measure
Climate
change
and
developm
ent
measure
Developm
entonly
measure
Non
climatic
measure
Remarks
SeedbedmethodforT.Amanrice
DepthoftransplantingforT.Aman
Weedcontrolreducewaterseepage
Mixed
responses
ManualclosingofsoilcracksFarmers
Strengtheningfieldbunds(Aillifting)
Impactofwatersaturatedsoilconditiononrice
cultivation
Raiseseedbedinthehighlandandpreparefloating
seedbed
Zerotillagepotatoandmaizecultivation
7
8
9
11
CultivationoflocalandHYVT.Amanricetoassessthe
comparativeadvantagesofthevarietiesintherecurrent
droughtandsalinecondition
CultivationofsalinetolerantlocalandHYVBororiceto
assessthecomparativeadvantagesofthevarietiesinthe
recurrentsalineproblemsinthecoastalarea
Reexcavationoftraditionalponds
Dual
response
12
Reexcavationofkharicanals(northwest)
13
Excavationofcanals
14
WaterControlStructures
15
Excavationofminiponds
16
Reexcavationoftraditionalcanalandpreserving
fresh/sweetwaterinthecanalbyerectingmud
bund/wallforsubsequentirrigation
CanalreexcavationforsupplementaryIrrigation(south
10
17
46
Climate
issue
related
measure
Climate
change
and
developm
ent
measure
Developm
entonly
measure
FinalReport
SL
AdaptationOptions
Non
climatic
measure
Remarks
18
19
Facilitatedrainagebyreexcavatingthetraditional
canals
SupplementalIrrigation
20
InstallationofshallowandDeepTubeWells
21
SystemofRiceIntensification
22
Directsownrice(drumseeder)
Dual
response
23
Droughtresistantricevarieties
24
GreenManureT.Amansystem
25
T.AusChiniatapsystem
26
T.amanMustard/linseedsystem
27
T.amanChickpea
28
T.amanMungbean
29
RelaycroppingofT.Amanwithgrasspeaandmustard
30
Cultivationofpulse,oil,spicescrops
31
Faminereservecrops
32
Jujubecultivation
Dual
response
33
Homesteadvegetablegardening
34
Mulberryintercroppinginrice
35
Foddercultivation
36
Fishcultivationinminiponds
37
west)
Dual
response
Cottageindustries
38
Manufacturingindustries
39
MiniNursery
40
MixedFruitGarden
41
CultivationofPigeonPea(Arahar)intheFallowLand
42
Boatgarden
43
45
IndigenousfishcultureinpondsuchasKoi,shing,Rui,
Katlaetc
Pata(Compartmentalizationbybamboomatinstagnant
water)fishcultivation
Prawn(golda)cultureinlowland/T.Amanricefield
46
SmallpondFishbreedingpractices
47
Cultivatesalinetolerantfish
48
Protectingfishbyputtingupfench/netaroundthepond
49
Dual
response
50
Vegetablecultivationattheboundaryofshrimp/prawn
field(gher)
SnailCultivationinwaterlodgedarea
51
Goatrearing
52
Duckrearing
53
Droughtresistantpoultry(Cok)rearing
54
Cultivationofwaterlilyinthewaterloggedarea
Dual
response
55
Flowercultivation
56
Mangocultivation
57
*Maizecultivation
Mixed
responses
58
*PapayaCultivation
59
Communitybasedbiogasandtreeplanting
60
Improvedstove
Dual
response
61
Seedstorageforhigherviability
62
FarmYardManure
63
Compostpreparation
Dual
44
Mixed
responses
47
FinalReport
SL
AdaptationOptions
Climate
issue
related
measure
Climate
change
and
developm
ent
measure
Developm
entonly
measure
Non
climatic
measure
Remarks
64
Cultivationofgreenmanuringcrops
65
Timberandfruittreeplantationintheroadsideandin
thehomestead
Establishmentofembankmenttorestrictsalinewater
intrusionfromthesea
Establishment/maintenanceofembankmentandsluice
gateforsavingcropsfromhightideandflood
response
66
67
68
4.1.11
SocialmobilizationfortheManagementofembankment
andsluicegatesthroughthewaterusergroupsinone
unionaspilotbasisforgrowingriceandothercropsas
suitabletothearea
MinitalkoninnovativeCCA
Besidesthetechnicallectures,groupworkanddiscussionsseveralnewissueshavealsoemerged
andwasaccommodatedforsharingintheformofMiniTalkduringthetraining.Someofthe
uniqueinnovativemeasuresemergedinthesesessions(specifictothecontext)asfollows:
IntegratedPestManagement(IPM)
Fisheriesadaptation,
Hydroponics(bayra)inSalinity/SLRareas
ExtensionexperiencesofDAEasadaptation
Cyclone/stormsurgespecificadaptationmeasures
Farmersclimatefieldschool
Traditionaladaptivemeasures
Andsomeothers.
4.1.12
Learningoutcomes
Thelearningoutcomeofthislocalleveltrainingprogramremainedasbelow.Participantsgained:
exposure to fundamentals of climate change and science relevant for agriculture and
alliedsectorinBangladesh;
understandingoftheapplicableknowledgeinclimatechangeimpactsonagricultureand
alliedsectors;
understanding of the climate change adaptation process (options, measures, scientific
adaptation, spontaneous adaptation, adaptive capacity etc.) and various types of
livelihoods based adaptation options and their evaluation process in agriculture and
alliedsectors;
introductory knowledge and understanding of the various available Climate Forecast
Application Systems. Increased understanding of the available sources of forecasting,
prediction and early warning systems related to Flood, Drought, Cyclone and so forth;
and
access to an active learning environment for discussing climate change and climate
changeadaptationrelateddiscussionsatlocallevel.
48
4.2
FinalReport
National level training and learning on Climate Forecast

Applications
Besides the local level training programs, ADPC has also carried out a training and learning
eventonClimateForecastApplicationsforAgricultureandalliedsectorson15October,2009
whichashostedattheAISConferenceRoom,DAE,Khamarbari,Dhaka.Theoverallobjectivesof
the national level training program was to share and learn various issues of Climate Change
related issues relating to adaptation approaches and Climate Forecast Applications (CFA) that
would help better manage of the climatic risks in agriculture and allied sectors in Bangladesh.
From the sharing and learning of the event participants are expected to be able to get further
ideasonhowclimatechangeforecastcanbeappliedinvarioussettingsandlocalconditionsinan
appliedmanner.
TheDirectorGeneralofDAEhasparticipatedintheinaugurationsessionasaChiefGuestand
opened the event for the participants. He has given a thoughtful welcome address and given
various examples in the recent time where the need for climate forecast applications visvis
earlywarningwasexpressedhighly.Hehasalsopointedoutthatagriculturesectordevelopment
isamajorpolicythrustforthecurrentgovernmentandDAEwouldliketobuildtheiroperational
capacitytoadaptwiththeongoingclimaticchangesandvariabilityinalltheecologicalzonesof
thecountry.Inthisregard,hehasthankedFAO,LACCprojectandADPCforbringingalonga
timely training and capacitybuildingprogram onCFA. Inthe end of thissession,thetraining
teamhasgivenabriefingontrainingobjectives,elaboratedtheupcomingsessionsandlaidout
theoverallagendaoftheday.
Figure 4-1. DG DAE is addressing the participants during the ADPC and LACC-II project facilitated
Climate Forecast Application training and learning event in Dhaka on 15 October, 2009.
Thespecificobjectivesofthisnationalleveltrainingprogramwereto:
capacitatetheparticipantstounderstandandgainapplicableknowledgeontheavailable
modelresultsoftheanticipatedclimatechangerelatedrisksandimpactsfromanover
view of the existing model results available from regional, national and subnational
level;
shareupdatesonvariousavailableClimateForecastApplicationSystemswithincreased
details of sources and process of forecasting, prediction and early warning systems
relatedtoFlood,Drought,Cycloneandsoforth.
create greater understanding of the various forecast products available (also coming
up)thatwouldberelevantforagricultureandalliedsectorsinBangladesh;
49
4.2.1
FinalReport
facilitateaninstitutionalandadaptivelearningprocessthatcouldbeusefulforfutureuse
of existing forecast products, have a regular interaction with the information source
providers(e.g.BMD)andthepractitioners(DAEofficersandproject)andresearchers;
provideparticipantssystematicunderstandingoftheclimatechangeadaptation(options,
measures, scientific adaptation, spontaneous adaptation, adaptive capacity etc.) and
various types of livelihoods based adaptation options that could be developed using
availableCFArelatedproducts;and
Facilitate an active learning environment for discussing climate change and climate
forecastapplicationsandadaptivelearningatnationaltolocallevelinfuture.
Targetparticipants
Approximately a cross section of 40 professionals have participated (excluding the trainers) in

this training and learning event. The training and learning event is targeted primarily for the
followingparticipants:
LACCIIprojectNTIWGmembers;
DAEsDisasterRiskManagementandClimateChangeCoreGroupmembers;
LACCIIprojectfieldofficers(FOs);and
Others who showed interest from DAE and remained actively involved in related
activities.
4.2.2
Trainersandresourcepersons
The training and learning event was developed with active contribution of the institutional
resourcepersonswhoareinvolvedinvarioustypesexistingclimateforecastapplicationsinthe
country. In this respect, resources persons were invited from Bangladesh Water Development
BoardsFloodForecastingandWarningCenter(FFWC)whoareinvolvedwithhydrologicalrisks
such as floods in the country. Resource person was also invited from the Bangladesh
Meteorological Department (BMD) particularly having specialization in agrometeorological
hazardsandforecastsystems.Experiencedresourcetrainerswerealsodrawnfromthenational
agricultural research institutions such as BRRI and BARI to provide more updates on recent
developments and get into discussions with forecasters and users. ADPC provided the overall
facilitation of the training and learning process and active learning. ADPC trainer presented
variousfacts,figuresandclimatechangemodelresultoutput(basedonvariousexistingsources)
andfacilitatedtheoveralllearningprocessintheevent.
The training team comprises of multidisciplinary and multiagency professionals. Some of the
key resource professionals and trainers for this local level capacity building exercise are as
follows:
Dr.ShameemHassanBhuiyan,BMD
Mr.MrAbulBashar,FFWC/BWDB
Mr.AtiqK.Ahmed,ADPC(Lead
Facilitator)
Dr.JibanK.Biswas,BRRI
Dr.AkkasAli,BARI
Dr.AbuWaliRaghibHassan,DAE
Mr.SanjibSaha,LACCII,PMU,FAO;
and
Mr.AbulHossain,DAE.
50
4.2.3
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TechnicalSessionI:EarlywarningandProbabilisticForecastSystems
Themajortechnicalaspectofthetrainingprogramwasstructuredintwodifferentrounds.Inthe
first round, three technical presentations were delivered from ADPC, BMD and FFWC. In the
first presentation of this round Mr Atiq K. Ahmed from ADPC has provided an elaborated
presentationontheClimateChangeandAnticipatedRiskstoBangladeshandparticularlyinthe
project pilot areas. The presentation has touched the gradual downscaling of climate change
modelresultsfromvariousinitiativessuchasIPCCAR4,PRECISmodelrunresultsforvarious
partsofBangladesh,anticipatedclimaticriskstothecoastalzoneofBangladeshandsoforth.He
hasdiscussedhowtheserisksareincreasinglyputtingtheagricultureandalliedsectorsinhigher
risksincomingyears.Thepresentationpointedoutthattheseincreasingpatternsofclimaticrisks
ontheagricultureandalliedsectorarecreatingalargerneedtoenhancecapacitytopredictthose
forlocallevel.Inthisrespect,incorporationofendtoendclimateinformationgenerationand
application system is crucial and climate forecast applications based agricultural risk
managementstrategiesshouldbeadopted.
Itwaspointedoutthattheoverallcapacityoftheinstitutionsandprofessionalsshouldbefurther
enhanced for a) analyzing climate outlooks, b) interpreting global climate outlook into local
outlooks, c) translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios, d) communication
development for response options/ feedback; and e) improving planning and adaptation
strategiesforlocallevelpreparationsinadynamicway.
He has also put emphasized on the initiating a CFA process and gradually build an enabling
environment where professionals and farmer groups can have a better understanding of the
available climate forecast information systems of the source agencies such as BMD, FFWC and
othersandbuildanoperationalrelationshipwiththeseagenciesfordevelopingaprocessofCFA
foragricultureandalliedsectors.
Follow up to this presentation, Dr Shameem Hassan from Agrometeorology division of BMD

has given a comprehensive presentation on the Early Warning and Probabilistic Forecast in
Meteorological Systems in Bangladesh. He has talked about seasonal climatic patterns of
Bangladeshanditsvariousimpactsoftheagriculturesystems,variousmeansadoptedbyBMD
to monitor agrometeorological information, various agrometeorological forecast products
developedbyBMDwhichcanfacilitateCFAprocessandDAEandotherrelevantissues.Hehas
informed that BMD produces following Agromet Bulletin from the observed Agromet and
Meteorologicaldatainevery7thdaywhichcontainsthefollowinginformation:
7dayactualrainfallinmm
7daysnormalrainfallinmm
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Departure(in%)ofactualrainfallwithnormal
No.ofRainydays
MaximumtemperatureandnormalMaximumtemperature
MinimumtemperatureandnormalMinimumtemperature
AverageevaporationandEvapotranspiration
Averagesunshinehours
WeatherForecastfornext7days
Advisoriesforthefarmers
He has expressed a more collaborative arrangement for CFA with DAE local offices and BMD
stations which might also very useful for producing more useful and downscaled information.
He has pointed out that in future with increased capacity the NTWIG members and DAE core
unitcanplayacoreroleindevelopingsuchinitiativewithBMDagrometdivision.
The last presentation of this round of technical session was delivered by Mr Abul Bashar,
FFWC/BWDB and he has elaborated on
the hydrological observations and flood
forecasting system in Bangladesh. He has
alsodiscussedonthevariouspotentialuse
flood forecast products developed by the
FFWC which could be useful for
agriculture risk management and
planning in an elaborated way. He has
talked abouttheFFWC activities,forecast
products and how these can be accessed
and used. He has elaborated to the
participants how these flood forecast
productscanbeinterpretedforunderstandingthelocalsituations.
A follow up discussion on summary of the learning was undertaken briefly on these three
presentationsintheendofthisroundoftechnicalsession.
52
4.2.4
FinalReport
TechnicalSessionII:CFA,AdaptivePractices&DecisionMaking
Followuptothetechnicalsession1ontheearlywarningandprobabilisticforecastsystemsinthe
first half of the day, a participatory round exercise was carried out to have an elaborated
understandingoftheapplicationsofclimateinformation,adaptivepracticesanddecisionmaking
issues.Theoverallobjectivesofthisparticipatoryroundwastobringtheoperationalprofessional
and DAE officials close to the climate information source providers such as BMD and FFWC
representatives and bring along the agricultural research organization professional to elaborate
on some of the possible adaptive practices that can be adopted to deal with the climatic
changes/variabilityinfuture.
During this session, Dr Jiban K Biswas

from Bangladesh Rice Research Institute
(BRRI)andDrAkkasAlifromBangladesh
Agricultural Research Institute (BARI)
have shared some latest research outputs
which could be helpful for future
adaptationofcropsindroughtandcoastal
regionsinthecountry.DrJibanKBiswas
from BRRI has elaborated on the
environmentalandclimaticrisksgrowing
bothinthesalineproneareasaswellasin
the drought prone areas of the LACCII
pilot upazilas. He has suggested that
BRRI dhan27, 40, 41, 47, BR11, 23 are
amongthesuitablericevarietiesforsaline
area.
Cover crop like sweet potato, sweet gourd etc. are also suitable for saline prone areas. Other
crops such as watermelon, batishak, radish and radish etc. can also be suitable in these given
areas.Hehassuggestedthatsalinitymanagementthroughfertilizermanagementisalsocrucial
and further research is needed on deep water rice for coastal region as well. The BARI
representative Dr Akkas has shared their experiences of developing the homestead vegetation
modelforsalineareasinKhulna.Theyhaverecommendednineproductionunitsforhomestead
model.
53
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EventAgenda
9:00amRegistration
InaugurationandOpeningSession
9:30am
WelcomeAddressfromLACCIIprojectPMU,DAE(byDrAbuWaliRaghib
Hassan)
WelcomeAddressfromADPC(byAtiqK.Ahmed,ADPC,Thailand)
SpeechofChiefGuestbyDirector,DirectorGeneral,DAE
BriefingonTrainingObjectivesandSessionOverview
10:15am
Presentation:TrainingactivitiesundertheLACCIIProject:AnOverview
(ByDrAbuWaliRaghibHassan)
TeaBreak
TechnicalSessionsRoundI.EarlywarningandProbabilisticForecastSystemsinBangladesh
10:45am
Presentation:ClimateChangeandAnticipatedRisks:OverviewofGlobal,
NationaltoLocalChallengesforClimateRiskManagementforAgricultureand
AlliedSectors(ByAtiqK.Ahmed,ADPC)
11:30am
Presentation:EarlyWarningandProbabilisticForecastinMeteorological
Systems(byDrShameemHassan,BMD)
12:15am
Presentation:EarlywarningandProbabilisticforecastinHydrologicalSystems
(byMrAbulBashar,FFWC/BWDB)
1:00pm
DiscussionsandLearning(FacilitatedbyMrAtiqK.Ahmed,ADPC)
LunchBreakandPrayer
TechnicalSessionsRoundII.ClimateForecastApplications,AdaptivePracticesandDecision
Making
3:00pm
Workgroupandplenary:IntegrationofClimateForecastInformationinto
Agriculturaldecisionmakingandplanning(FacilitatedbyAtiqK.Ahmed,
ADPCandSanjibK.Saha,PMU,FAO)
4:00pm
Tworesourcepresentationsandsharedlearningon:
AdaptiveMeasuresforCropsinDroughtandCoastalRegions:CurrentPractices
andFuturePotential(byDrJibanKBiswas,BRRIandDrAkkasAliBARI)
5:00pm
Opendiscussionsandexperiencesharing
SummaryandWrapUp
byADPCandPMU.
ClosingremarksandvoteofthanksbyDirector,FSW,DAE.
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Chapter5. Reflectionsandrecommendations
5.1
Recommendations from local level trainings
From the experiences of administering of the local level training on climate change following
recommendationsemerged:
Itwasemergedfromtheoveralllocallevelinteractionthattherehasbeenagreatdemand
forfurthertrainingonclimatechangeandadaptationissuesinfuture.Moretrainingson
widerissuesofadaptationandmorefrequenttrainingsarealsoaskedfor.
Itwaspointedoutinseveraloccasionsthatonedaytrainingsonclimatechangeissues
areusefulbutalongertermprogramofaweeklongtrainingwouldbeveryusefulfor
theparticipantstogetmorehandsontrainingandapplicationoftrainingsinfuture.In
thisrespect,aweeklongtrainingoreventwoweeklongtrainingwouldgivethemmore
opportunitiestodesigneffectiveprojects/initiativesforadaptationwhichtheycanfollow
upwithintheirdepartmentsandsectorsrespectivelyafterthetraining.
It was emergedfrom thediscussionthat ifaGuidebook onCommunity Level Climate

Change Adaptation is developed in future then it could be very useful for them. A
guidebook in Bangla with these types of issues of climate change and adaptation of
scienceandsocietyisrecommended.
From the experiences of the local level training on climate change and adaptation a
training manual can be further developed and the existing resource book (FAO Case
Study9)canbefurtherupdatedincorporatingthecoastalcontextsintotheguidebookor
55
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preparingaseparateresourcebookaltogetherforcoastalareas.Thisisquiteimportantas
the situation and the context of the Bangladesh coastal zone is quite different from the
northerndroughtproneareas.
For developing further widespread understanding of local level stakeholders some

information and education related materials (i.e. paper based billboards, posters,
leaflets andaudiovisual such as video/film etc.) relating to climate change and climate
changeadaptationcanbedevelopedandsharedwiththelocallevelunits/stakeholders.
Itisrecommendedthattosharethetrainingexperiencesoflocallevelcapacitybuilding
canbesharedwiththenationallevelofficialsinDhaka.Ahalfdaycentrallevelsharing
meetingcanbeorganizedinfuture.ThemeetingcanbeorganizedatDAEheadquarters
and central level DAE officials, NTWG members and other relevant national level
stakeholderscanbeinvitedforthissharingmeeting.
5.2
Recommendations from the NTWIG level training event
A host of issues and recommendations emerged from the national level/NTWIG training on
climate forecast applications. Participants actively recommended following issues and shared
experiencedrivenlessons.
DistrictlevelexpansionofTechnicalworkinggroups:Itwassuggestedthatontop
oftheexistinginstitutionalarrangementsofNTIWGandUTIWGthereisaneedfor
strengtheninginstitutionalcapacityatdistrictlevelwhichisneededforaligningthe
climatechangeissueswiththedistrictplansandimplementations.
Climate Information product development: It was pointed out during the

discussion that in collaboration with BMD and DAE custom based climate
information products needs to be developed particularly for the Sea Level Rise
salinitypronecoastalareasandinthedroughtproneareas.
Extendlongleadonagrometeorologicalforecasts:Itwaspointedoutthatforagro
meteorological forecasts the present available time is not very suitable for
agricultural preparedness. In this respect, extension of longlead time of agro
meteorological forecasts are asked for and requested from the BMD agro
meteorologydepartment.
Expansion of flood forecast for coastal areas: The available forecast information
products provided for flood from the FFWC needs to include the coastal areas and
riversaswell.
Adjustment of cropping pattern and planting time of crops: Participant discussed

that CFA should be mainstreamed in the practices of farmers and block level
practitioners. The crop management plans and timing could be adjusted using the
forecastinformationifthesearemadeavailableintimewithadequategeographical
extent.
Regular involvement of agricultural research outputs: Agricultural research

institutionscanbefurtherinvolvedwiththeextensionservicesfromthebeginningof
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any research activities so that farmers and block level SAAOs can also be engaged
fromthebeginningofanyresearchactivity.
CFA related further training and awareness: Further awareness can capacity
buildingprogramforCFAneedstobeundertakenandshouldbeadoptedinfuture
projects initiatives both within DAE, Ministry of Agriculture as well as in
collaborationwiththeotherdepartmentsandministries.
57
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Annexes
58
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Annex1.Reflectionsofparticipationinthefourtrainingsatlocallevel
ParticipantsofPabnaroundtraining
ParticipantsofKhulnaroundtraining
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Variousotherimagesofgroupworkandpresentations
60
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Annex2.ReflectionsofparticipationandlearninginNational(i.eNTWIG)level.
62
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Annex3.Somerelevantreferencematerials
Booksandreports
Baas,SandSelvaraju,R(2007).Climatevariabilityandchange:Adaptationtodrought
inBangladesh:Aresourcebookandtrainingguide
http://www.fao.org/nr/clim/abst/clim_070901_en.htm
ADPC(2005).Trainingmodulesforclimate&floodforecastapplicationsin
agriculture.ADPCFAO.
http://www.fao.org/sd/dim_pe4/pe4_060201_en.htm
FAO(2006).LivelihoodAdaptationtoClimateVariabilityandChangeinDrought
ProneBangladesh.FAO.
Ahmed,AKandChowdhuryIA(2006).Studyonlivelihoodsystemsassessment,
vulnerablegroupsprofilingandlivelihoodadaptationtoclimatehazardandlong
termclimatechangeindroughtproneareasofNorthwesternBangladesh.FAO.
CEGIS(2005).Strengtheningdisasterriskmanagementintheagriculturalsectorin
Bangladesh.FAO.
RelevantWebsites:
FAOandClimateChangewebsite
http://www.fao.org/climatechange/home/en/
FAOandEmergencies
http://www.fao.org/emergencies/currentfocus/climatechangeadaptation/en/
FAOClimpagwebsite
http://www.fao.org/nr/climpag/
FloodForecastingandWarningCentre(FFWC),Bangladesh
http://www.ffwc.gov.bd/
ClimateForecastApplicationsBangladesh(CFAB)
http://cfab.eas.gatech.edu/shortterm/home.html
BangladeshMetrologicalDepartment
http://www.bdonline.com/bmd/
BarindMultipurposeDevelopmentAuthority
http://www.bmda.gov.bd/
MinistryofAgriculture,Bangladeshwebsite
http://www.moa.gov.bd/
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Relevantreportsthatdiscussfutureclimaterisks(alsobibliographyfortheChapter2):
IDS,2007.
DEFRA,2007.
BUET,2008.
DetailedResearchReport.TheORCHID:PilotingClimateRiskScreeninginDFID
Bangladesh.April2007.
InvestigatingtheImpactofRelativeSeaLevelRiseonCoastalCommunitiesandtheir
LivelihoodsinBangladesh.TheUKDepartmentforEnvironmentFoodandRural
Affairs.June2007.
PreparationofLookupTableandgenerationofPRECISscenariosforBangladesh.
BangladeshUniversityofEngineeringandTechnology(BUET).November,2008.
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Annex4:Listofparticipantsinfourlocalleveltrainingsessions
ListofparticipantsoftworoundsoftrainingforJuniorOfficersinPabnaandKhulna.
SL
#
1
2
3
4
5
Nameofparticipant
Md.AzizulIslam
Md.A.Razzak
KomolKantiKundu
Md.AbdulKuddus
Md.AshogorAli
6 Md.AbdusSattar
7 Md.AbuAyubeAnsari
8 Md.MonirulIslam
ShreeDeneshChondro
9 Sarkar
10 Md.AtaurRahman
11 Md.AbdulMannan
12 Md.MainulHaque
13 Md.RobiulIslam
14
15
16
17
18
Md.IbrahimKholil
Md.HumayunKobir
Md.AbulHossain
Md.TowhidulIslam
BiddutK.Paul
19 ArifJahangir
20 EliasHabib
21 Md.AsadulHaque
22 ShahMd.Ashaduddowla
23
24
25
26
ProdipKumarRoy
Md.AminulIslam
Md.GolamMorttuza
Md.GaniulIslam
27 Md.ShorifulIslam
28 Md.MahfuzAshraf
29 Md.RafiqulIslam
DwipendraChandra
30 Sarkar
31 Md.MizanurRahman
32 ZillurRahman
33 S.M.
34 SachindraNathDas
35 ChittaRanjanGain
36 Md.AlaUddinSK
Nameof
Department/
Organization
DAE,Bagatipara
DAE,Bagatipara
DAE,Bagatipara
DAE,Bagatipara
DAE,Lalpur
DAE,Lalpur,
Natore
DAE,
Lalpur,Natore
DAE,Sapahar
DAE,Sapahar
DAE,Sapahar
Forester,Sapahar
DAE,
Gomostopur
DAE,
Gomostopur
DAE,
Gomostopur
DAE,Nachole
DAE,Porsha
DAE,Porsha
FO(M),Bagatipara
FO(M),
Porsha,FAO
FOM,
Gomostapur
FOM,Lalpur
FOM,FAO,
Nachole
FOM,FAO,
Sapahar
DAE,Nachole
DAE,Nachole
DAE,Porsha
ForestDep.,
Nachole
FAOLACCII
FAOLACCII
FAOLACCII
FAOLACCII
DAE,Terokhada
DAE,Terokhada
DAE,Bhandaria
DAE,Bhandaria
DAE,Dacope
Tel./CellNo.
Zone
Date
North
North
North
North
North
20Oct.,2008
21Oct.,2008
22Oct.,2008
23Oct.,2008
24Oct.,2008
0171828260 North
25Oct.,2008
01198129334 North
01916557781 North
26Oct.,2008
27Oct.,2008
01718824622 North
01717051566 North
01912935590 North
28Oct.,2008
29Oct.,2008
30Oct.,2008
01712392645 North
31Oct.,2008
01718878688 North
32Oct.,2008
01722803550
01712986911
01719613574
01714864841
01712696152
North
North
North
North
North
33Oct.,2008
34Oct.,2008
35Oct.,2008
36Oct.,2008
37Oct.,2008
01713247371 North
38Oct.,2008
01711333792 North
01711789380 North
39Oct.,2008
40Oct.,2008
01716118116 North
41Oct.,2008
01712170591
01714764522
01715271425
01718701281
North
North
North
North
42Oct.,2008
43Oct.,2008
44Oct.,2008
45Oct.,2008
01716155797 North
1731242416 South
1733019012 South
46Oct.,2008
23Oct.,2008
24Oct.,2008
1730194621
01721936448
1914987252
1914667545
1716301916
1718043633
01717614771
25Oct.,2008
26Oct.,2008
27Oct.,2008
28Oct.,2008
29Oct.,2008
30Oct.,2008
31Oct.,2008
1712441478
01734007681
01717331360
01718878798
01715715274
South
South
South
South
South
South
South
65
SL
#
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
Nameofparticipant
DasBibhutiRanjan
Md.KamalHossain
Md.SultanMahmud
Md.SiddiqurRahman
DhirendraNathSikder
NitishChandraBala
Md.HabiburRahman
NirmalKrishnaBiswas
Md.BabulAkter
SM.Ashrafuzzam
Md.EkramulHaque
Md.YounusAli
BijanKumarRoy
NikhilChandraBiswas
SadanandaMondal
Nameof
Department/
Organization
DAE,Dacope
DAE,Bhandaria
DAE,Bhandaria
DAE.Nazirpur
DAE,Nazirpur
DAE,Nazirpur
DAE,Bhandaria
DAE,Nazirpur
DAE,Nazirpur
DAE,Terokhada
DAE,Tereokhada
DAE,Terokhada
DAE,Dacope
DAE,Dacope
DAE,Dacope
Tel./CellNo.
01718607117
01736200510
01714801173
01716615235
01715350008
01725461126
1724433663
1710810317
1912453719
01710120284
01717469932
1911803537
01918222709
1715855975
01915018445
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Zone
Date
South
South
South
South
South
South
South
South
South
South
South
South
South
South
South
32Oct.,2008
33Oct.,2008
34Oct.,2008
35Oct.,2008
36Oct.,2008
37Oct.,2008
38Oct.,2008
39Oct.,2008
40Oct.,2008
41Oct.,2008
42Oct.,2008
43Oct.,2008
44Oct.,2008
45Oct.,2008
46Oct.,2008
ListofparticipantsoftworoundsoftrainingforSeniorOfficerson19thOctober2008in
Pabna(Venue:HDTC,TebuniaPabna)
S.L Name
&Designationof
Participant
1.
Md.AbulKalamAzad
UAO
2.
Md,Ohiduzzawali
3.
Md.SanaUllahMeah
4.
Dr.BiplobKumarDey
5.
Dr.Md.AbulHossain
6.
Md.AbulHashim
SAE
7.
Md.NowsherAli.
SAE
8.
Md.NiazMuddin
9.
Md.MahbuburRahman
10. Md.AlamgirKabir
11. S.M.AzharulIslam,
UFO
12. Dr.Md.SalimUddin
ULO
13. PratulChandraSarker
14. A.B.M.Mostafizur
Rahman
15. Md.MobosherHossain
16. K.M.AbdulHalim
17. SubrataKr,SarkerUAO
18. Md.EhsanulHaque
NameofDepartment/Organization
DAE,Nachole,Chapainababganj
Tel./CellNo.
01716126185
DAE,Gomostapur
D.D.A.E.Pabna
V.S,LivestockOffice,Nachole
ULO.
Panasi,BADC,Bagatipara
01711378050
01732062876
01712537127
01711789872
01720466616
B.ADC.Panasi,Lalpur
01916406376
U.L.O.Lalpur
UFO,Gomastapur
UFO,Porsha,Naogaon
DOF,Sapahar
01712277902
01711784840
01711930972
01716937692
U.L.Officer
Sapahar,Naogaon
Uao,Parsha,Naogaon
UAO,(DAE),Sapahar
01718290095
AFOLalpurNatore
UFO,Bagatipara,Natore
DAE,Bagati,Natore
DAELalpurNatore
01712439184
01716729576
01715844689
01715176139
01714941444
01712987962
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ListofparticipantsoftworoundsoftrainingforSeniorOfficerson22ndOctober2008
inKhulna(Venue:HDTC,Khulna)
S.L Name&
Designationof
participant
1.
KaziAnisuzzaman
UAO
2.
GourKantiSingha
UAO
3.
Md.Habibulla,
Forester
4.
KaziAnisuzzaman
UAO,
5.
Dr.AtaurRahman
Chowdhury
6.
Md.SaifulIslam,
Forester
7.
Md.KhayrulIslam,
FG
8.
SanjidaHaqueE.O
9.
Md.ZillurRahman
10. G.MSalim
11. Md.AbuSayed
12. Dr.ShishirKumar
Biswas
13. SwapanKumar
Mandal
14. AshitKumarSaha
15. Dr.DineshChandra
Mazumder
16. F.M.Mostafa
17. S.MFerdous
18. Md.GolamHossain
19.
20.
21.
Md.Obaidur
Rahman
Md.Mizanur
Rahman
Md.Jafor
NameofDepartment/Organization
Tel./CellNo.
DAE
01711397721
DAE,Terokhada
01715094094
Upazilla,ForsterDacope
01716681088
DAE,DacopeKhulna
01711397721
ULODacope
01818372989
Dept.ofForest,Bhandaria
01722278777
FD,Nazirpur
01719975299
Fisheries,Dacope
UFO,Bhandaria
UFO,Nazirpur
SUFO,Terokhada
01919858984
01720201447
01712699215
01712661616
DLS,Terokhada
01712156234
UAO,Bhandaria
01716421838
UAO,Nazirpur
ULO,Bhandaria
01712257061
01718148425
Metro.Agri..OfficerDAE
DDAE,Khulna
01912475622
01711184475
811486/041
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Improved Adaptive Capacity To Climate Change For Sustainable Livelihoods in The Agriculture Sector - 2010

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Improved Adaptive Capacity To Climate Change For Sustainable Livelihoods in The Agriculture Sector - 2010

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ComprehensiveDisasterManagementProgramme(CDMP)

Adaptive Learning in Climate Risk Management:

Project Implementing Partners:

Capacity building of DAE staffs, NTWIG members and project professionals in

Structure of the report

The Chapter 3 provides a status description of various Climate Forecast Applications in

Analysis of future anticipated risks

The regional climate modeling system PRECIS (Providing

Table 2-3. Summery of changes of temperatures in SW region (for LACC-II area).

One of themajor conclusionscamefrom the PRECISresultsisthat thevariation of rainfall and

Uncertainties in prediction and downscaling

National level developments

Figure 3-1. BMD Website.

Consolidation and Strengthening of Flood Forecasting and Warning Services

Telemetry/Data box / Voice

FFWC Radio Tower

Data Entry & Processing

Modelling & Mapping

GIS data layers

Figure 3-3. FFWC operational system network.

The warning information is disseminated through FFWCs traditional dissemination process

Figure 3-4. FFWC daily activity flow chart.

Figure 3-5. Existing Flood Warning Product Dissemination Routes.

Local level initiatives

Figure 3-6. Local level dissemination system of the CPP.

Figure 3-7. The institutional setup of CPP.

Figure 3-8. CFIS/CFAB information flow and dissemination process.

Figure 3-10. Erosion prediction and vulnerability assessment materials by BWDB.

Framework for drought assessment

Figure 3-11. Conceptual framework of DRAS model.

Table 3-2. A comparative overview of the various hydro-metrological hazards EW in Bangladesh.

Local level trainings on climate change and adaptation

Themajor objective of thetrainingprogram was to increaseadaptive capacityof the locallevel

Table 4-1. Local level training schedule for four events.

Table 4-2. Session details of the local level training by ADPC.

a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that

Coping range is increasing

Clim ate issue

National level training and learning on Climate Forecast

Approximately a cross section of 40 professionals have participated (excluding the trainers) in

Follow up to this presentation, Dr Shameem Hassan from Agrometeorology division of BMD

During this session, Dr Jiban K Biswas

Recommendations from local level trainings

It was emergedfrom thediscussionthat ifaGuidebook onCommunity Level Climate

For developing further widespread understanding of local level stakeholders some

Recommendations from the NTWIG level training event

Climate Information product development: It was pointed out during the

Adjustment of cropping pattern and planting time of crops: Participant discussed

Regular involvement of agricultural research outputs: Agricultural research

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