April 9, 2015

Toll Exceeds 3,000 Uncovered in IS Mass Graves

Measures of Islamic State brutality were

bolstered this week with the revelation of 12 or more mass graves in Tikrit, Iraq, primarily composed of hundreds of Iraqi
soldiers killed at a former U.S. military base after the insurgent Islamic group took control last August. The tally of bodies
recovered at such mass grave sites hit 3,071 with the latest discoveries, and include 230 from the Al-Shaitat tribe in Syria
and 500 members of the Yazidi sect in northern Iraq, including some women and children who were buried alive. The
update coincides with, and tempers, the news of 200 Yazidis released in northern Iraq this week, including 40 children and
mainly the elderlyreported to be in poor health and bearing signs of abuse. No reason was given for their release.
Assessment: The gruesome tallies in the mass graves are expected to be much higher. On Wednesday, a tribal chief
reported Islamic States further execution of 300 prisoners in the city of Qaim in the Anbar province, including Iraqi police
officers and civilians captured there about six months ago. While mass executions may serve utilitarian purpose toward
desired expansion (reminiscent of 20th century atrocities), Islamic State has successfully marketed these actions in
recruitment efforts. Likewise such offenses draw attention of state-level opponents: this week Sweden announced that it
will support the Iraqi government with troops.

Mass Grave excavated in Iraq

Kenya University Attack: al Shabaabs Deadliest Yet The assault on students at Kenyas Garissa University College by a team of al
Shabaab gunmen on April 2nd left over 140 deadmore than double the Somali militant Islamists previous high tally of 60-plus at Nairobis Westgate Mall in
September 2013. Survivors described how the gunman killed indiscriminately at first, upon storming the campus, but later separated out Christians from
Muslims for execution within dormitories, testing religious affiliation by demanding recital of passages from the Koran. While al Shabaab often claims such
attacks are retaliation for Kenyan military incursion in Somalia, many analysts believe the highly secular stamp on this, and other recent attacks (Watchline
11.26.14, 12.4.14) are aimed at recruitment of radical-leaning Muslims, as the group has been called out on high Muslim death tolls in previous acts of terror.
Assessment: Despite losses in (formerly-held) territory and leadership, Al-Shabaab continues to impose a grip of terror on the Horn-of-Africa region.
Although there is a perception that frequency of attacks in Kenya is increasing of late, one analysis by START indicates that al Shabaab conducted almost 100
terror attacks there between 2008 and 2012, including 13 in Garissa alone in 2012. What has evolved, in addition to the pronounced targeting of Christians as
expressed above, is the magnitude of the attacks, primarily garnered through body counts.

$5 Insanity Prompts Bizarre Behavior on Streets

Police and emergency responders in Florida and other states have been
confronted with bizarre, violent behavior from the increasing number of users of a synthetic drug, and cousin to bath salts, called Flakka. For as little as $5 a
dose, users get a euphoric high accompanied by a burst of energy and, often, super strength, as well as elevated body temperature, leading to situations, such
as in Fort Lauderdale this week, where police chased down a man running naked through the streets (trying to evade imaginary pursuers) or where a man
attempted to break through a hurricane door at police headquarters overnight (also fearing pursuers). Another man impaled himself on an iron fence. Flakka,
also called gravel for its resemblance to fish tank rocks, may be snorted, smoked, injected, and ingested, and has also been reported in Texas and Ohio.
Assessment: Unlike bath salts containing the chemical stimulant MDVP, the alpha-PVP in Flakka has yet to be banned. In addition to dangers associated
with hallucinations, violence and adrenaline-fueled strength, responders should be aware of an extreme fight-or-flight response prompted in users and the need
for prompt medical treatment to counter associated effects of rapid increase in body temperature that may lead to death.

Ambush on Police Raises Cartels Profile On April 6th, members of the Jalisco New Generation Drug
Cartel (CJNG) ambushed a police convoy traveling on a rural road between Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara in western
Mexico. Halting the convoy with a hijacked vehicle that straddled the road and was set on fire, the attackers riddled the
police vehicles with bullets, killing fifteen officers and wounding five. It was the worst attack on security forces in Mexico in
years. Two weeks earlier, CJNG members, carrying assault rifles and grenade launchers, murdered five police officers in
the town of Ocotlan. CJNG is a relatively new force in the Mexican drug trade, one which emerged from the splintering from
the Sinaloa Cartel in 2010 after the death of the Sinaloa representative who oversaw operations in Jalisco.
Assessment: Some analysts attribute CJNGs emergence as drug powerhouse to the willingness to engage security
forces. Typical of terror strategy, the spectacle of such attacks raises groups profiles. Law enforcement and military
personnel continue to be overtly named as targets in terrorist aspirations.

Where Were You When the Wall Fell?

A recent report by the 9/11 Review Commission states that the FBI continues to have growing
pains as it incorporates a domestic intelligence mission into a traditional law enforcement organization, said the NYT. The report, titled The FBI: Protecting the
Homeland in the 21st Century, also emphasizes the importance of intelligence analysts, whom the bureau still does not sufficiently recognizeas a
professionalized work force with distinct requirements for investment in training and education (p. 36). Earlier this month, the CIA announced that it was
conducting a massive restructuring, which will create mission centers that will better align analysis with clandestine operations.
Assessment: Contrary to the title, the recent report will likely not be as seismic as the Fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, but better inclusion of intel analysts in
law enforcement activities and other operations can enhance all missions. The (original) 9/11 Commission Report explains how information sharing between
the Dept. of Justice and the FBI was crimped after the espionage case against Aldrich Ames in the 1990s, which revealed that too much informal information
was moving between prosecutors and special agents. The result was the Wall (p. 79), or an over-strict interpretation of FISA restrictions and other rules that
were only intended to manage and formalize the flow of information. The requirements for prosecution versus prevention will always lead to a natural tension,
but that does not bar the need for information flow.

When Popular History Just Doesnt Compute

When people think of the first computers, several models

come to mind, such as Charles Babbages Analytical Machine, the Turing Machine, and ENIAC, or, more recently, early personal
computers, including the Altair, Apple I, or IBMs Acorn. In the 19 th century, the father of the computer, Babbage, relied on Ada
Lovelaces algorithms, earning her the title of the first programmer. Electric, binary-based computers are a 20th century creation
but mechanical devices that make calculations have been around for at least 2,000 years, namely, the Ancient Greek Antikythera
Mechanism, which plotted and predicted the movement of celestial bodies and solar or lunar eclipses.
Assessment: The Antikythera Mechanism forced science historians to recalibrate their computer timeline by two millennia. Many
fields are forced to adjust common notions after new discoveries, which more times than not, prove that innovation and
advancement occur earlier than expected (emigration to North America, use of fire, etc.). As storage media changes throughout
the decades (paper, microfiche, floppy disks, CDs, flash drives, etc.), it becomes difficult to rediscover lessons learned from years
past. Luckily, FDNY has WNYF magazine articles from the early 1940s to present in both print and electronic form. And, this year,
there is renewed interest in Department history as FDNY celebrates its 150th anniversary, shedding light on many advances.

The Analytical Engine

Watchline@fdny.nyc.gov - (718) 281-8399

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